Summer 2016 Disney World Strategy
The last couple of days have been big for planning Summer 2016 Walt Disney World vacations, as firm opening dates and schedules have finally been given to many new attractions and entertainment, most notably Frozen Ever After and The Jungle Book: Alive with Magic.
FastPass+ now is available for both, plus Soarin’ Around the World. If you’ve finally scored your FastPass+ for these attractions (we have!), take a break and cool down by reading some of our preliminary thoughts when it comes to summer touring. Nothing lowers your blood pressure (and possibility puts you to sleep) like some theme park geekery! 😉
First, let’s cover all of the details. If you read the flurry of activity on the Disney Parks Blog yesterday, this is all redundant to that, so you can safely skip the next 3 paragraphs. In Epcot, the original Soarin’ (Over California) returns May 27 through June 16, 2016, with FastPass+ now available. It’s nice to see the original get a few ‘final flights’ as a send-off. It’s definitely a new classic worthy of goodbyes.
Also in Epcot, Frozen Ever After and the Royal Sommerhus Meet and Greet will open June 21, 2016. There’s a strong possibility of soft openings prior to this, likely around June 17. FastPass+ bookings are now open for Frozen Ever After. No FP+ for the meet & greet.
Over at Animal Kingdom, Tiffins opens and the new nighttime entertainment begins May 27, 2016, followed on May 28 by The Jungle Book: Alive with Magic (don’t be surprised to see it soft open the day before). Dining Packages for Jungle Book: Alive with Magic are available at Tiffins and Tusker House.
Finally, there are firm dates for Disney’s Hollywood Studios’ and Magic Kingdom’s new entertainment. Star Wars: A Galactic Spectacular debuts on June 17, 2016. This new show will utilize projections and other technology, making it akin to Disneyland Forever, the fireworks show for Disneyland’s 60th Anniversary. The same day, Mickey’s Royal Friendship Faire opens in Magic Kingdom. There’s no FastPass+ for either of these things.
In light of this, there are some fairly significant touring strategy changes for Epcot and Animal Kingdom. Much of what follows is based upon speculation and educated guesswork…which should be obvious since none of this is open yet. Rather than incorporating these untested theories into our Daily Park Itineraries and other planning guides, we thought it might make more sense to post them here, and incorporate them into other posts if against all odds and by virtue of a small miracle, we turn out to be right.
So, what are the implications of this news? Let’s start with Epcot, and what’s sure to be a chaotic summer with both Soarin’ Around the World and Frozen Ever After opening within days of one another. I can already see the comments coming. “Frozen Ever After has a 180 minute wait? Guess that proves Disney made the right decision in putting it in Epcot!”
Or…it proves that new things are popular, kids still love Frozen, and low capacity rides tend to have long waits. To my knowledge, Arendelle hasn’t ceased being a fictional country, so its inclusion in World Showcase remains a suspect decision. But, the reality is that it’s here and isn’t going anywhere, so I’m at least hopeful that the attraction will be good and worth those long waits.
It should come as no surprise that the Norway pavilion will be opening with Future World, and that Frozen Ever After is a Tier 1 FastPass+. Unless Disney harnessed the magic of those rock troll things, Frozen Ever After will be a really low capacity attraction–just as Maelstrom was. For those of you who have better things to do with your lives than pore over operational details of theme parks (I envy you), the capacity of Maelstrom was around 900-1,800 guests per hour.
That’s a huge range, and it’s accounted for by the difference between theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC), which is how many guests could be cycled through assuming 100% efficiency. THRC is like a magical rock troll: not something that exists in reality. Nothing operates at 100% efficiency, as guests can unload slowly, pauses have to be made for accessibility reasons, etc. Because of this, there’s also operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC), which is the “real world” number a ride can expect to achieve thanks to humans being human, and all of that.
Best case scenario: Frozen Ever After can cycle ~1,500 guests per hour (and even that is pretty ambitious, I think). For comparison, the OHRC of Pirates of the Caribbean is above 2,500; ditto Haunted Mansion. On the other hand, many traditional Fantasyland dark rides are under 1,000. With an OHRC of around 1,100, Test Track is probably fairly close to where Frozen Ever After will fall, even though they’re totally different ride systems.
Why does all of this geekery matter? Because capacity has a really big impact on wait times. When you consider the continued Frozen frenzy, plus the initial demand for anything new, plus the dearth of things for kids to do in World Showcase, plus the low capacity of the attraction, you have a recipe for really, really long waits.
With all of this in mind, our revised strategy for Epcot would be to score a FastPass+ for Frozen Ever After (if you’re lucky), Spaceship Earth, and Mission Space (the last two don’t matter nearly as much, so don’t worry about them). We’d recommend doing FastPass+ from 11 a.m. until 2 p.m., and then checking immediately to see what’s available (we’re guessing those IllumiNations FP+s are going to start having more same-day availability). We cover all of this strategy in our Guide to FastPass+ at Walt Disney World.
Assuming you score a FastPass+ for Frozen Ever After, we’d recommend doing Soarin’ Around the World at rope drop if you are willing to do Test Track via the Single Rider line. If you are not willing to do that, reverse the order there. Even though Soarin’ Around the World has that new (orange?) smell, it’s also going to have an additional theater, which means significantly higher capacity than Test Track. Still, you’re looking at a lengthy wait for whichever you do second (which might having you rethink the Single Rider line on Test Track.)
If you’re unable to obtain a FastPass+ for Frozen Ever After and aren’t keen on spending half of your day in its standby line, we’d strongly recommend an ~8 a.m. Advance Dining Reservation for Akershus if doing so is within your budget. If it is, and you’re not yet eligible to book FastPass+ for your trip, you might hedge your bets by booking that ADR now and canceling it if and when you secure a Frozen Ever After FastPass+.
Having this ADR for Akershus will give you a theoretical headstart on rope drop crowds, as you’ll be able to wait in a ‘holding corral’ for Frozen Ever After near the attraction as soon as you’re done with breakfast (before 9 a.m.). Once the park opens, you’re significantly closer to the attraction than those guests coming from the front of the park. While I’m pretty confident about the other “theoretical” advice here, there are more question marks with this strategy than the rest. The good news is that–unless you’re booking for June 20, 2016–there are plenty of guinea pigs who will go before you. If the strategy doesn’t work for them, you can cancel your ADRs. For now, think of them as a sound insurance policy.
Failing a Frozen Ever After FastPass+ or Akershus pre-opening breakfast ADRs…well…uh…pack your running shoes? This is the perfect spot for a “Winter is Coming” or “There Will be Blood” meme. That rope drop dash from Epcot’s front entrance to Norway will make the old Toy Story Mania dash look like a leisurely frolic through a field of Bergfrue.
June 25, 2016 UPDATE: For its first week of operation, Frozen Ever After wait times have ranged from around 120 minutes to 300 minutes. We expect 2+ hour waits to be the norm for a long time with this new attraction, and would highly recommend following the strategies above.
By contrast, wait times have actually fallen at Soarin’ Around the World thanks to the new theater, to the point where it’s not half bad via standby later in the day. While we’d still recommend Soarin first, then single rider for Test Track, if you are not willing to do single rider for Test Track, consider waiting until late in the day for Soarin. Its wait times peak by lunch, and tail off later in the day.
Hi, Tom…I really enjoy your posts. We are heading to Epcot during EMH at 8:00 in a couple of weeks in order to try to get in line for Frozen. However, we’re staying at the Poly, so I’m not sure there’s really an easy way to pull that off. Think we’re better off just going in the main gate?
I failed to mention we were thinking of going in through the International Gateway.
I have seen that the standby wait times for Frozen Ever After are usually over 2 hours long, but do you have any idea what the range is for fastpass+? I have a fastpass for it, but I’m guessing that there will still be a wait time, just not as long as the standby. Any idea how long?
Hey Tom. Quick question (since you’re my WDW guru and I can’t seem to find an answer elsewhere): is Rivers Of Light postponed… indefinitely? We’re heading for our first visit at the end of August and I’m hoping it’ll be up and running by then. Regardless, I’m glad that there’s an evening option there now with Jungle Book.
We’re going then, too. Have a great time! & great weather 😉 Maybe 25% possible RoL will open by then? Can’t wait to secure Kilimanjaro Night FPs 😀 Will HS continue new SW fireworks, possibly on limited nights?
Planning complications are epic this summer. Epcot’s flow is a big “?” with these 2 new rides, lumping the only 3 necessary FPs into Tier 1. Rope-drop one, get FP for another, and wait in 120min+ line for the other.
Also trying to plan my in-laws trip for July. WDW already knows that YES, July will be crowded & needs extended hours. Why wait so long to update Park Hours & Shows? No HS fireworks listed for July yet, at just 5 weeks away.
I’m confused. Is the Frozen attraction going to open at rope drop for Epcot, or rope drop for the World Showcase?
The Frozen ride and the Meet & Greet will be opening at 9am.
That will be some site to see… Rope Droppers falling all over themselves across the bridges during the over half mile elbow-jousting sprint to World Showcase.
Since the International Gateway opens the same time as the main turnstiles, I could see this easily cutting down some time in order to get to Norway first thing. I don’t think this is likely to change because France also opens at 9am with Future World for breakfast.
I think the best advice is staying away from WDW in summer, period. I will never get how people enjoy the place in Florida summer weather, which has already begun, btw.
The scary thing about these EPCOT ‘additions’ (really replacements as well all know) is that Soarin is one of WDW’s most popular attractions and Frozen Fever is still as toxic as ever, so EPCOT, which has really been struggling because it basically is the largest and priciest outdoor bar and lifestyle center in O-Town, will be the most popular park to see this summer. And attendance will go up and Disney execs and Lifestylers will proclaim EPCOT as being fixed, when it is still a total mess.
As to DAK, I wouldn’t be shocked to see those 11 p.m. hours cut as we move into August if Rivers of Light is still delayed and crowds don’t pan out. Even when RoL debuts, I wouldn’t expect regular 11 p.m. closings. So long as they can do one night showing, they’ll close as early as it makes sense. I’ve already been told there’s been talk of 8 and 9 p.m. closings after it starts getting dark earlier. Of course, that is still better than this week’s 6 p.m. closings. I suppose that gives people time to get over to The Corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios for Star Wars pyro cupcake parties … because cupcakes make everything better.
Bet they don’t have those in Anaheim … or Paris … or Tokyo … or Hong Kong … or soon … Shanghai.
I fear the long wait times at Frozen Ever After will be “evidence” for some of its appropriateness for World Showcase, which is why I pre-emptively addressed that here. Otherwise, I don’t think anyone except for the most ardent of Disney fans is under the impression that Epcot is fixed. If anything, I’d say it’s the park in need of the most work right now.
I was surprised that DAK extended the hours until 11 p.m. for the entire summer, but also that they didn’t try to run Jungle Book/RoL earlier than they are. I think there’s going to be a lot of demand for those shows, but also that most people still won’t want to stick around until 11 p.m. I think that’s a recipe for the first show causing massive congestion.
From what I understand, those cupcake parties aren’t doing so well, either, so I don’t think anyone is running over to DHS for that…
All things considered, what you’re getting in Florida this summer seems–to me at least–significantly better than what we are getting at Disneyland. The late nights at DAK and the entertainment coming with them looks really solid. I wonder how much of that is Rohde’s pull there; they could have easily phoned it in with out-of-place dance parties with DJs and contemporary music (what I expected), but the actual slate is thematically appropriate, and sounds pretty well done. Too bad the other parks don’t have advocates with as much influence as him (assuming he’s the responsible party).
Thanks for the great info as always!! Any word on MK extending hours? I expected to see that happen with the “official” change this morning. Please don’t tell me they’re really closing at 10:00 over the summer?! Could that be because the $$ is going to extending AK?
They might not be running Everest after the 9 pm show starts so unfortunately there may not be the opportunity for repeated walk ons at the end of the night there. I had read a post that the noise might interfere with the show. I’ve looked 60 days out and there are no fast passes for Everest later than 7:30 pm even with the 11 pm close giving some support to the above speculation.
Geez Tom, this is scary stuff. The prep work and thought process one must deal with to get into Frozen Ever After without having to endure a four hour wait kinda boggles the mind. What do you think of this idea? Make two ADRs for Akershus. Use one so the kids can have breakfast and meet the princesses, and the other as a gateway into Frozen Ever After. Of course, that will only work if your theory pans out.
I’ve been planning Disney trips for more than forty years, and never thought it would come down to needing a Ph.D just to organize a family vacation. Thankfully, my children and grandchildren are grown and can plan their own trips. At this stage of life, I don’t feel the need to jump through hoops to see an attraction, or dine in a restaurant. I feel for these families. I’m not sure they know what they’re getting into. Especially in the heat of summer. And that is precisely why we need you, Tom. You’re smart and, being an attorney, very detail oriented. Plus, you love Disney. What I’m saying is this, thanks and keep up the good work.
I’ve never gone to Akershus, but I know that you have to budget a fair amount of time for most character meals. I don’t doubt that your advice is solid for people that want to get a jump on the crowds and also don’t mind leaving the restaurant before meeting all of the princesses, but that could be a tricky needle to thread for a lot of families.
You definitely can’t take your time and linger with this strategy, but it has been effective in our experience at Crystal Palace, and I know many other people do it with Cinderella’s Royal Table (for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train).
With this, you’re helped a bit by the long distance between the front gate and Norway–that walk effectively buys you another 10 minutes before the crowds get back there. I think the big question is whether Epcot will have unannounced early openings (opening the turnstiles at, say, 8:45 a.m.) to get more people through the attraction. That’s what could really throw a wrench in this plan.
Thank you for the updates. As much as I hate to be going in July—it is when the National Down syndrome Congress Convention will be in Orlando—Hence—our time to visit the parks. Your strategies will help us quit a bit as we trudge through the crowds in the parks.
Any plans on going to Shanghai Disney? By the online postings it may just beat out Tokyo.
Any idea what rides and attractions will be open at Animal Kingdom past 6pm? I can’t imagine they will be able to extend everything really late into the evening. Thanks!
Thanks for the great post! We are going in October and already have reservations at Tusker house on the dining plan but would love to convert those to the dinner package. When do you think dates in October will be available for booking? I didn’t see anything past the beginning of September on the site.
It all depends upon Rivers of Light and when they are able to set a firm opening date for it. Once that occurs, they can start releasing FastPass+ and package dates for that. My guess would be late July for October dates, but that’s a guess.
Tom, do you think the late hours for animal kingdom are going to continue after September? Or is it just for the summer?
They will almost certainly continue after September. I suspect September is the internal date they expect Rivers of Light to be ready, and they probably want to wait until closer to that date until solidifying the schedule. It also provides some time to evaluate the 11 p.m. closings to see whether 11 is necessary, or if 10 p.m. will suffice.
I’ve just booked a trip Sept. 21st and AK hours will be going back to closing at 5:00pm as I was told by a cast member at my hotel. No night time in the park.
That Cast Member is incorrect. The hours for September have not yet been updated, and that Cast Member is drawing their own conclusions as a result. The park hours will be updated, and it’s only a question of whether the closing time is 11 p.m., or an earlier nighttime hour.
Mapmyrun has it as 0.55 miles from the turnstiles to the back of Norway. That plus wider walkways should hopefully spread the crowd out more than the TSMM rush?
(And in case you have ever been curious, the path in front of the Odyssey restaurant is ~0.04 miles longer.)
I think one of two things will happen: there will be “pace car” Cast Members that keep everyone bunched together, causing physical contact, or…
Since it’s such a long distance, you’ll literally have people running to get there.
It won’t be exactly like the TSM rush, but it should be an amusing spectacle, either way.