Coronavirus Impact, Policies & Deals for Disney Cruise Line
Disney Cruise Line has released new coronavirus cancellation & refund policies, travel safety alerts, sanitization & health protocol, and other info for sailings through July 25, 2020. Additionally, DCL has released tons of new deals and last-minute discounts. We’ll cover all of the details here and also offer some commentary about cruising during the COVID-19 outbreak. (Updated March 9, 2020.)
I’ll start with the same disclaimer offered in our Visiting Walt Disney World During the Coronavirus Outbreak: I am not a health professional, and the advice here should not be relied upon as such. For that, consult the World Health Organization’s basic protective measures against the new coronavirus (COVID-19), the U.S. Department of State’s Alert Bulletin about the Current State of Coronavirus, and Centers for Disease Control’s COVID-19 Situation Summary.
Most recently, the U.S. State Department issued a new updated advising U.S. citizens not to travel by cruise ship. This is particularly the case for travelers with underlying health conditions. CDC indicates that this is due to an increased risk of infection of COVID-19 in a cruise ship environment. In order to curb the spread of COVID-19, many countries have implemented strict screening procedures that have denied port entry rights to ships and prevented passengers from disembarking…
In its advisory, the State Department indicates that this is a fluid situation. Passengers with plans to cruise in the future should monitor the travel.state.gov travel advisories, and should contact their cruise line companies directly for further information.
For its part, the CDC released new guidance advising that people at higher risk of severe illness should “stay home as much as possible.” This includes avoiding crowds and large gatherings where there will be close contact with others. Public health experts define higher risk populations as people 60 and older; those with underlying health conditions; people with weakened immune systems; and those who are pregnant.
On a slightly optimistic note, there are a ton of deals for Disney Cruise Line right now. Given all of the news coverage about the coronavirus outbreak aboard the Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California, it’s likely that these deals will become even more aggressive as Disney attempts to offset the slew of cancellations.
These deals go well beyond what’s listed on Disney Cruise Line’s “Special Offers.” The best discounts we’re seeing are for Florida Residents, Military, Cast Members, and “Restricted Guarantee” fares (which are probably applicable to most of your reading this). The various classes of these are Inside (IGT), Outside (OGT), and Verandah Guarantees (VGT). We cover the ins and outs of Restricted Guarantee fares in our How to Save Money on Disney Cruise Line Sailings.
Again, I’m not a health expert–I’m presenting this information as a dealhound and without commentary as to whether it’s safe or smart to take a cruise right now. The one bit of commentary I will offer here is that I’m seeing deeply-discounted cruises all the way into mid-September 2020.
Personally, I wouldn’t book a new cruise for the next month or so, but I do find some of these late-summer European and Norwegian Fjords & Iceland Cruise sailings really tempting. Obviously, I have no clue how the situation with coronavirus will ultimately play out, but I suspect Disney Cruise Line will do one of two things (potentially both, depending upon the sailing) if coronavirus is still a significant issue many months from now…
The first option would be to extend the current cancellation policy, or introduce an even more lenient one, that actually offers a cash refund. Just in the last few days, cruise operators and airlines have dramatically altered their policies. Both are suffering huge losses right now. If they want to entice bookings, they’ll have no choice but to do more and compete with one another on pro-traveler policies.
The second option would be to cancel cruises altogether. Disney Cruise Line could cancel for two different reasons: either as a matter of public health or a business decision if even deep discounts aren’t incentivizing enough guests to book. If the ships are sailing half full or less, it may cease being profitable to operate them. (Airlines have already done this by reducing service to select destinations.)
Modifying itineraries to avoid certain destinations is another option along these lines. Right now, the situation in Italy looks pretty bad–but remember that it escalated there very rapidly. Nothing is to say things won’t significantly improve in Europe while deteriorating elsewhere in the coming weeks or months. Coronavirus numbers are literally changing on a daily basis.
Pouncing on deals now for cruises in the more distant future may be a savvy approach. Then again, I’m on the less risk-averse side. Your personal comfort level in traveling may vary.
Before you take advantage of any discounts, you definitely should take a hard and sober look at Disney Cruise Line’s current policies, protocol, recommendations, etc…
Disney Cruise Line
Disney Cruise Line has sent email advisories to guests with scheduled sailings and also released a new update on its website. That indicates that DCL is closely following guidance from health officials and authorities in the ports of call, and is committed to keeping people informed and updated, and will address any questions guests may have in advance of their cruise vacations and once they’re onboard.
It goes on to state that Disney Cruise Line’s primary focus is the health and safety of guests and Crew Members. Disney notes that its guidelines and policies will continue to evolve and change as more information about coronavirus becomes available.
In the meantime, DCL is taking precautionary steps and has implemented the following guidelines:
- Any guest or Crew Member who has traveled from, to or through China, including Hong Kong and Macau, South Korea, Italy, Iran or Japan, within 14 days of departure will not be able to board DCL ships.
- Any guest or Crew Member who has been in contact with someone from these areas, including guests with connecting flights in these locations, also will not be able to board, nor will anyone who has helped care for someone suspected of having or diagnosed with the coronavirus (COVID-19), or who is currently subject to health monitoring for possible exposure. Guests who have air travel booked through Disney Cruise Line will automatically have their flights rebooked on an alternate route. Guests who booked their own air travel arrangements should contact their airlines directly to make the appropriate changes.
- Disney Cruise Line screens all guests and Crew Members before boarding, and anyone who feels unwell with gastrointestinal or flu-like symptoms (fever over 100.4º F, chills, cough or difficulty breathing) will not be permitted to sail.
- In addition, all guests and Crew Members will have their temperature checked by a nurse with a no touch thermometer prior to boarding, regardless if they are symptomatic or feel unwell. Additional medical screening will be required for anyone with a temperature of 100.4º F or greater, and they along with their travel party may be unable to sail.
- For cruises that include a stop in Nassau or Castaway Cay, please note that The Bahamas will not allow anyone to disembark in any Bahamian port if they have been to China, South Korea, Italy or Iran in the past 20 days prior to arrival. Such guests may be able to sail but will be unable to visit the Bahamas.
- For cruises that include a stop in Jamaica, please note that in addition to the locations noted above, officials there also will not allow guests who have traveled from, to or through Singapore within 14 days of arrival to come ashore. These guests will be unable to sail.
Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus Cancellation Policy
Given the current situation, Disney Cruise Line is offering temporary adjustments to its cancellation policy to provide more flexibility for guests. These adjustments may continue to evolve as more information becomes available.
Here are the current cancellation policies for each ship/itinerary…
Disney Magic European Sailings
- Disney Cruise Line has not made any changes to European itineraries, but Disney is closely following the situation in Italy. Disney will continue to monitor global developments and follow the guidance of public health authorities and ports of call regarding who they will allow to disembark based on travel history and health screenings. Should itinerary changes become necessary, DCL will notify impacted guests immediately.
- Guests currently booked on European sailings through the July 25, 2020 departure can change their reservation up until the day before embarkation.
- Guests who cancel or change their reservation will receive a 100% cruise credit to be used for future sailing within 15 months of their original sail date by calling us at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 or contacting their travel agent.
- Note that this is a credit for future use and not a cash refund. The credit will be applied to standard prevailing rates and is itself non-refundable.
- Guests currently booked on the July 13, July 18 or July 25, 2020, European sailings may delay their final payment to 30 days prior to their sailing.
Disney Magic sailings through May 8, 2020, and Disney Dream, Disney Fantasy and Disney Wonder Sailings through May 31, 2020
- All guests scheduled to depart on the Disney Magic between now and May 8, 2020, and the Disney Dream, Disney Fantasy and Disney Wonder between now and May 31, 2020, can change their reservation up until the day before embarkation.
- Guests who cancel or change their reservation will receive a 100% cruise credit to be used for a future sailing within 12 months of their original sail date by calling Disney Cruise Line at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 or contacting their travel agent.
- Note that this is a credit for future use and not a cash refund. The credit will be applied to standard prevailing rates and is itself non-refundable.
Disney Cruise Line Coronavirus (COVID-19) Additional Information
Disney Cruise Line consistently receives among the highest public health inspection scores and has health and safety protocols in place. DCL has a comprehensive plan that outlines protocols for managing illness and closely follow the guidance of public health officials.
Some of Disney Cruise Line’s health procedures include:
- Training all Crew Members on how best to prevent the spread of illness onboard.
- A health screening completed by all guests and Crew Members to check for illness before they board the ship.
- Extensive cleaning and sanitation of high-traffic areas (e.g., handrails, doorknobs and elevator buttons) and children’s facilities.
- Cleaning of all staterooms twice a day, and additional disinfection when necessary.
- Medical clinics on Disney Cruise Line’s ships staffed with experienced doctors and nurses and stocked with supplies and medications to treat a variety of illnesses.
According to public health authorities, guests can help prevent the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) and many other illnesses by frequently washing their hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after using the restroom and before eating. Parents should supervise their children to ensure they wash their hands thoroughly.
Additionally, Disney Cruise Line has hand sanitizer wipes and sanitation stations conveniently available in multiple places on its ships. Guests can also cover their nose and mouth with a tissue (or upper sleeve) when sneezing, and avoid sneezing or coughing into their hands or without covering their nose and mouth.
Disney Cruise Line will post new coronavirus updates online as policies evolve, public health guidance changes, or other information becomes available. Guests with specific questions may reach out to Disney Cruise Line’s Contact Center at 1-866-325-2112 or 407-566-3510 or contact their travel agent.
On that note, we’d highly recommend using a travel agent at this time, as they can deal with all of this for you. As noted above, there’s a lot of fluidity to DCL’s policies and protocol, and having someone else stay on top of this for you–and deal with Disney, if necessary–could save you a lot of time and headache right now.
To that end, if you want personalized recommendations for Disney Cruise Line itineraries, ships, and more, click here to get a cruise quote from a no-fee Authorized Disney Vacation Planner. They can find you all of the current discounts, and help you plan the details of your cruise!
Your Thoughts
Have you dealt with Disney Cruise Line during all of this? If you attempted to cancel or modify your sailing due to coronavirus, what was your experience like in dealing with DCL? Have you found or booked any particularly great discounts for future sailing dates aboard Disney Cruise Line? Are you apprehensive to cruise right now–or would you flat-out not do it? Any questions? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I don’t really think a response is needed. In this comment you’ve revealed your true self for the world to see. My only regret is that I should have asked you to donate to a math literacy program.
What do you all think about the chances DCL will change their stance from reschedule to totally cancel with a full refund? Thank you ☺ï¸
I don’t know but that’s what I’m holding out for with Carnival until the deadline they gave us to cancel with a future credit (Mar. 31st for an April sailing).
We are hoping as well- not necessarily for the virus scare, but a family we intended on traveling with found out they will be 24 weeks pregnant – which is too far along that DCL will allow. We couldn’t cancel because it’s outside the window so this would allow us to rebook with our friends when they are ready after their new baby girl arrives ☺ï¸
We’re a group of 5 families going on a spring break cruise at Disney Wonder …. most of us decided to just postpone our cruise for next year unfortunately cruise prices for the same month has already have an inflated price.
Calling to cancel is really not helping as we’re all on hold for more than 3 hours and then calls are being dropped due to system problem…. I guess coz it’s cancellation policy change has just been recently announced last Friday. Hopefully they can come up with something better alternative and a little more lenient on when can you use your cruise credit if they will not do a refund. We bought the cruise a year ago and just devastated that we need to postpone it for safety reasons.
Same! I have been searching everywhere for a different way to replan the trip (like how about on the app opening it up for us to simply choose a new date and cruise??) I was on hold 2 1/2 hours and got hung up on 🙁 🙁 we also booked far in advance. This was going to be our first Disney Cruise, so sad!
We were to said on March 7 for a week aboard the Disney Fantasy and we were monitoring Disney all week with them saying no refunds or credits. Then in March 6th, we received an email saying everyone with a scheduled cruise could get a full credit, EXCEPT within 24 hours of the cruise sailing. What? That was us, but we couldn’t postpone our trip? Yikes! I had to call. After 44 minutes of waiting on hold. I finally got through to a rep who said she had to transfer my call to a supervisor. After two more hours on hold, I finally called back on another cell phone and waited on hold for another half hour before a rep answered the second phone. I explained my waiting time and she was able to credit my entire trip to a future date. I was so relieved! Now the CDC is advising not to cruise at this time and we would have been on the ship at the time of their advisory. We are watching what others are going through trying to disembark on other ships coming back from cruises, and we just didn’t want to be in those lines. Thank you, Disney for stepping forward and doing the right things (as always) for your guests. That is why I love Disney.
And you call not giving you a full refund and rescheduling a future date the right thing to do??? I see it differently, Disney protecting there Income Profit Shamelessly in the Face of a Health Crisis!!!
A O M , I agree and all the cruise lines are doing it. Our Carnival cruise is April 13th and we have until eom to cancel for a future cruise credit or sail and get an onboard credit. I’m hoping by that time they have to start canceling cruises and refunding people, especially after the cruise travel warning. Fingers crossed.
We were supposed to be cruising right now. Would be in the Florida Keys today. Disney thinks highly of itself. 6k for the original cruise…and to punt the cruise out 12 months, they’ve inflated the prices threefold! Our six night cruise is now a three night cruise with some credit to drink with, I suppose.
I’m disappointed refunds were not an option. They must think people are filthy rich We are just as shocked about this virus as they are. I was never gaga over Disney but the way this was handled has made me salty.
See the Salty Sailor,
Sailing on the Salty Sea
Tom, thank you for this informative post. I was wondering if you would consider it appropriate to update this post to reflect that the US state dept. now advises all US citizens against cruise travel?
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/before-you-go/travelers-with-special-considerations/cruise-ship-passengers.html
I appreciate you are not a health professional and have urged people not to rely on you as such, but it does seem an important development.
I’m in Carnival cruisers Facebook groups and a lot of people still plan to cruise, some even saying with response to the what the state dept. said, “how can we even trust a government that doesn’t seem to know what’s going on?” So a lot of people aren’t taking heed.
Well the State Dept have issued an advisory rather than a ban, so that is their right I suppose. I can’t imagine wanting to do the same, not just for my own health but for the sake of vulnerable individuals I might infect and the additional pressure I may put on the health infrastructure.
Tom, although these latest blogs seem to have morphed into an “I know more than you” contest among 3 responders, I believe most of the rest of us appreciate your efforts and the care you took to NOT advise or encourage anyone one way or another. My concern about COVID-19 is primarily the death *rate*, not the actual numbers, as the flu typically has a death rate of around 0.05%, while this virus has a worldwide death rate currently of around 3.4%. I am also concerned as my parents are 87, my mother is in a nursing home with Alzheimer’s, and my father has diabetes and a heart condition. Plus the 2 cases that recently popped up in our state happen to be in my vicinity. So I am watching carefully, and I am not cavalier about what this virus can do – nor am I panicking. I really appreciate your continued reviews and information, so please keep it up as long as you and Sarah are OK. And know that there are plenty of us out here yelling at clouds right along with you.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-says-anything-is-possible-when-asked-about-widespread-coronavirus-quarantine
Looking like air, sea, and WDW Travel is Off the Books for 2020!
More than likely we’ll be canceling our Carnival cruise (Apr. 13-18th) this week. We already planned Disney 2 nights post-cruise and are now moving towards extending the Disney portion by adding days where the cruise would have been. This is all so concerning. Trying not to worry too much but at the same time doing exactly that. We haven’t been on a real family vacay since 2014 so we were really looking forward to it.
At this point, I highly doubt I would get on a cruise boat right now. I know the percentages and the numbers, the demographics of the virus, and it’s potential for outbreak. It will happen. Does that mean we all have to freak out? No. The flu is a nasty little virus as well. However, that being said, I’m a passholder and I’m even nervous to just even go to the parks right now. I’m sure there have been cases at Disney already. I rather not risk it until more is known about this. Luckily me and my family are healthy and we aren’t in the fatal demographic. Doesn’t mean we couldn’t end up very sick. Idk. I’m not sure what to do. I think as the virus spreads, the biggest impact will be economics. No one will be coming to the parks. They’ll wait and ride it out. It’s too pricey already and with the bonus “1000s visiting from extremely contagious areas and may kill you”, I’m betting many will wait. After the fallout from spring break, that’ll tell. I bet Disney is watching that closely.
“According to public health authorities, guests can help prevent the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) and many other illnesses by frequently washing their hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after using the restroom and before eating. Parents should supervise their children to ensure they wash their hands thoroughly.”
^THIS. this is the biggest factor in the spread of ANY germs. i applaud DCL for constantly having the highest standards and cleanliness records, but everyone needs common sense. the number of grown adults i see exit restrooms without washing hands or sneeze/cough into their hands and then go about their business is utterly disturbing (come on people, elbow, elbow, elbow!). all it takes, sadly, is one person to spread any number of germs and bacteria, in spite of DCL’s cleanliness efforts. i’ve seen people also manage to sneak in and out of eating areas without taking a wipe to clean their hands. as a frequent cruiser, that bothers me to no end. so, let’s all be realistic that dcl is not immune, as well as informed so we all know best practices to not share germs.
on that note, we are booked in october on the WBTA. i do hope they have a handle on this situation by then. i am hoping for an extra-early, extra warm spring to hopefully help in the fight. if we were booked on the ebta cruise, i’d have already cancelled.
Dear Tom,
I respectfully disagree with arpy.
You have always been responsible in your posts. Should millions die and even worse, rise from the dead looking for mouse ears to eat, you will have nothing to feel bad about. You have been very clear in your blogs about safety precautions and that you are not a qualified health physician.
I’ve read the CDC reports/ websites and visited the ones you linked in an earlier Post (also very responsible of you). I’ve heard the recommendations from those in charge as well as many others in the know like Dr Sanjay Gupta and Dr Oz.
There is nothing to fear but fear itself.
Again I mean no offense to arpy but by his reasoning isn’t Disney responsible for the deaths of millions by offering discounts to sail on their death cruises?
Tom you’re the best. Thanks for all you do.
bk
Thank you for being reasonable and logical.
I am not easily spooked by health scares (as the countless trips I have taken and have booked since Coronavirus began testify!), but I think I would actually draw the line at cruises. Partly irrational, but the thought of being stuck in a cruise ship – and not even able to leave the room – for an indefinite length of time beyond that booked fills me with dread. If the Grand Princess incident is handled better than the Diamond Princess, then I might have more confidence going forward. But it seems to me that while we are in the “contain” stage of a growing epidemic, the chances of being in a quarantined cruise ship are rapidly increasing.
If I adored cruises, maybe I’d be more willing to relax on those thoughts – but as someone merely vaguely tempted on occasion (and mainly thanks to this blog), I have been thoroughly deterred for the foreseeable future.
Cdd89 – go to youtube and search for Grand Princess to see the fights that have been breaking out onboard. Apparently, there was an attempted mutiny. I would not want to be quarantined on a ship during such a time.
I agree with you on this. Ships are never a fun place to be quarantined on. Having worked on cruise ships I have been on one where that happened once. The worst and the main reason NOT to book a cruise at this time.
@Cdd89 – I more or less agree with you, which is why I’m looking at the late summer and fall sailing dates (as mentioned in the post).
I think/hope by then this situation will have evolved enough that it’ll be easier to make an informed decision. Alternatively, if it’s gotten worse, those sailings will be canceled (or cancellable), anyway.
I found out about this yesterday and posted the phone number. Although we are not planning a cruise I find this policy change academically interesting. Could it be a harbinger of a more systemwide policy that will cover the parks? It will be interesting to watch.
The phone number? I’m sure the CMs at DCL will be delighted with your interference. They actually put all the information necessary on the front page of their website and emailed all of us who have a cruise booked so that we didn’t need to call.
Absolutely! As someone on the other end of those phone lines, everyone panic calling really interferes with those trying to actually get their sail dates changed without having to wait for hours on hold.
@Millennial
Didn’t jump, ejected. Bit of a difference. It’s called the Martin Baker Fan Club. I’m assuming you are a Brit? You guys pretty much invented the seat for which I sincerely thank you. Got the wristwatch too. Look up the story. It’s interesting.
About our seven days in Disney. I try to relate what I know and can be sure of, and yes, I base lots of what I say on what I’ve personally experienced because It’s knowledge I can personally verify. As an Engineer I’m data driven. I don’t like to speculate and when I do I define it as such. Everyone is worked up about Corona with one of the factors being that there is no vaccine for it. Once again, the good old garden variety flu, for which we HAVE a vaccine, has claimed 20K lives in the USA alone since 1, January vs 16 for Corona. Why aren’t people upset about the flu? IMHO it’s easy to figure that one out but draw your own conclusions.
I hope your vacation goes well. I’m sure it will. You have the right attitude.
I’m a big believer in rational, intelligent decisions and personal responsibility. My comment about hiding in a vat of hand sanitizer was, of course, hyperbolic. I was trying to point out that some people are totally rish-adverse and will say anything to influence an outcome, especially when it comes to telling others how to act. I’m not trying to influence people one way or the other about anything re Coronavirus. I’m attempting to point out that the disease is not a reason to panic and hide, and that for most people, hiding is fruitless anyway. In the final analysis one needs to weigh facts and data and make a decision that suits their comfort level. What I am not in favor of is people who try to guilt and bully others into doing what THEY think is right because they consider themselves more intelligent or socially responsible than the average person. One poster in particular seems to equate anyone who has the temerity to contemplate vacation travel with being a potential mass murderer. Ridiculous!
About Jiko’s, not one of my favorites. In that venue i prefer Sanaa, but Ok. If ever, Jiko’s it is.
Best
Jack
If they want to free up the phone lines a bit, they should give us the ability to cancel online so that they people that really need to call (i.e. to adjust not just cancel) could do so. I have a cruise scheduled for September that I’m going to cancel. Partly out of an abundance of caution, but mostly because we decided a three day cruise just isn’t worth it. We’re still going to WDW. But I can’t cancel online. So I have to call to cancel a cruise that is way within the cancellation window. If I could cancel online, that would be one less phone call.
Tom, as a long time reader and admirer of your photography skills, I want to respectfully suggest that I believe you will struggle in the future with regret about the glee with which you encourage people to continue with their travel plans in the face of a global pandemic that top researchers are saying will likely kill millions. Unlike 9/11, there is counterparty risk to going to crowded places – you risk unknowingly infected others. Additionally, even for those who are healthy, we will undoubtedly run out of health care capacity very quickly, which will cause death rates to rise. We are in the midst of a disaster and you are in a position to use your platform to save people’s lives. I’m asking you to please have the courage to do so.
(re: Healthcare capacity, please check out this thread https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909) from a biologist on the math of capacity issues.
I’d hardly call 16 deaths and under 300 infected in a population of 360 million a disaster. I ran the numbers. To calculate your chances of catching or dying from this disease in the USA you need a scientific calculator that goes to 10 to the minus 9 power. Tom has taken a very responsible position re this situation. Your criticism of Tom is, at this point and from several aspects, unfounded. If you don’t want to travel, don’t. Please respect the intelligence of others and allow them to make their own decisions. The world does not end in the foreseeable future.
Tom, Jack is a known troll to these comments sections. He was uncivil and made ad hominem attacks on others in your previous post on the topic.
For the rest of you interested in facts, here’s a Harvard epidemiologist who predicts that 40% – 70% of the world’s population will end up infected within the year. Also, please see the twitter link in my original comment about healthcare capacity likely also being a reason for increased fatalities
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
@Jack
The thing is, I agree with a lot of what you say. It’s just the way you are telling people that you were there for 7 days therefore it will be fine, or that you jumped out of a airplane in 1974 therefore you know what you are talking about.
If you think I am a snowflake then it is because you assume I am afraid, and you assume everyone who comes here looking for information is “sitting under their bed is a tub of sanitiser”. This is simply not the case for everyone. I have a transatlantic flight booked, connecting in various countries and then have 3 days planned at Disneyland followed by a 5 night cruise from San Diego. Nothing is cancelled, and I continue to hope for the best.
My concerns are simply to know 1) Will Disneyland shut its doors 2) Will the cruise go ahead and can I board. 3) Can I get back to where I came from. I don’t visit this page to be told what to do by you or ApryMickey.
P.S. If we meet up you can buy my wife and I a meal at Jiko 🙂
I think you mean the glee in which he doesn’t encourage anything, but lays out the policies and steps DCL is taking in this scenario. If you read the article, he states multiple times that he is making no suggestion one way or another, just making sure the information gets out there.
Also, many of us live in places that are already considered crowded places. Or work in such a place. Or need to get food and provisions from a place that could be crowded. For some of us the potential risk is the same or even less at a Disney park or on a cruise than it is at home.
I was referring to the glee in the previous coronavirus post and the false analogy to 9/11.
I’m not sure where I’ve been gleeful about this situation or encouraged anything.
To the contrary, I’ve presented resources, admitted my own knowledge gaps, and then presented my own personal travel preferences while disclosing my biases.
Tom, in your last post you said the following;
“I have an incredibly high risk tolerance, and there are only a few places in the world I’d hesitate to visit due to coronavirus. (And most of those come down to closures and physical quarantines.) The idea of not traveling within the United States wouldn’t have even crossed my mind but for readers inquiring about it.”
This is you showing a total disregard for the safety of others at a time when many experts (i.e. not Dr. Oz – rather people who study and model pandemics for a living) are predicting potentially millions of fatalities. Don’t you think you have any responsibility to others here? Doesn’t the lawyer in you at least recognize that the above actions border on gross negligence?
Then you essentially doubled down in your comment in the last post comparing the risk of going during coronavirus to the risk of going after 9/11, which clearly defies all logic. In the case of going after 9/11 there’s no causal relationship between an individual going to Disney and the likelihood of another terrorist attack, whereas there’s a clear causal link between being an unknowing carrier of coronavirus and infecting others during your travel.
It’s easy for you to dismiss having any higher responsibility to other or your readers – and most people with platforms like yours will do that and sleep just fine. As one of the more educated Disney bloggers, I believe your readers hold you to a higher standard (whether they realize the current threat or not). It’s times like this when true character shows.
The comment you keep referencing about 9/11 is here: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/coronavirus-disney-world-tips/comment-page-1/#comment-2022765
That’s plainly about following a similar trajectory with regard to deals, and not risk. Unless you’re suggesting prices will not fall, I’m not sure what logic my comments there defy.
As for the rest of your commentary, my perspective on this continues to change as I read more about it (and also, our collective knowledge evolves). I have yet to see any expert consensus among virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists–just a number of plausible scenarios. I’m willing to err on the side of caution via personal behavior if that’s the route chosen for our society, but I’m not in a position to dictate that.
If you live in the US and even leave your house at all you are “traveling within the United States”. Should I be called out for going to work today, or walking my dog? There were other people around. Is what happens to them their responsibility or is it the responsibility of someone else? Anywhere you go you could pose a risk to others or they could pose a risk to you. For those willing to take the risk, have at it. If not, close your doors and windows and wait it out. Once it is over there will be another risk to weigh, then another. When is it OK to make your own decisions and let others do the same?
Fair enough Tom. My wife and I fund x-risk research, including bio risk at several notable programs domestically. I’m not sure where you get your information, but all of the researchers in the field with whom I’ve spoken are deeply concerned about the lack of concern from the public and public officials, including the CDC. The insider perspective (which, if you seek academic communities online, you will find) seems to be much different than the information being shared with the public through a political lens. But even the undisputed facts should be deeply concerning.
Undisputed facts:
1) There’s community spread in at least 4 major metro areas (LA, SFO, SEA, NYC) and we have no idea how many infected people there are.
2) The growth rate of KNOWN infected people outside of mainland China is increasing at a 22% DAILY compounded rate.
3) Korea, which is a few weeks ahead of us, has thousands of people waiting outside of hospitals, some of whom are dying while waiting.
4) Major hospitals in the US are already turning away people with coronavirus symptoms because they do not have tests, which means it might be weeks before we get any realistic figures on how many people currently are infected.
5) The asymptomatic incubation period is somewhere between 3 and 12 days and everyone, even healthy young people, are potential carriers.
6) Even those who “recover” from the coronavirus still are at risk of having life-long cognitive or respiratory disabilities that could prevent them from living normal, healthy lives. (too early to know what %s, but there’s evidence for this in early research)
There’s slightly more candor at the state level because they will be held more accountable for relative impact. I think you need to consider the fact that the public policy will not necessarily be a reflection of the science, but rather a combination of science and economic considerations. A micro-example of this is the decision to close WDFM vs Disneyland. WDFM is free to make the decision that is in the best interest of the public and its employees. Disneyland has to worry about the economic fallout.
Your position is 100% defensible, but not exactly virtuous.
It seems that ApryMickey is new Jack. Imposing their opinions and claiming discussions with those in the know as a reason to be more knowable than others. Attacking Tom and claiming glee on his part for, as far as I can tell, copying and pasting from the Disney Cruise Line blog and making a few observations.
The observations of you and your “researchers in the field” friends regarding the CDC are borderline conspiracy theory.
You are welcome to all our your own opinions, and of course should be free to express them. But, when we have Jack telling everyone not to worry carry on regardless, and ArpyMickey telling us the sky is falling in – we will do what we came here to do anyway, read the facts and decide for ourselves, unless the matter is taken out of our hands.
Millennial – this is ridiculous. A simple read of the NYT or WaPo will tell you that there are experts on the ground saying that we are grossly unprepared to handle this crisis. No conspiracy required.
I am a statistician by training and now in my retirement run a non-profit focused on reducing x-risks that works with and funds major institutional research in the domain. It is a fact that in a situation like this, there will be some people with expertise who have better information and more informed opinions than others. In this case, it is true that I believe I have better information and more expertise than the average person. It’s likely that I have better information and more expertise than you.
My intent is to get accurate information to people for the purpose of saving their lives.
What exactly is your motivation?
OK Snowflake (Said in good humor, after all you DID call me Boomer!) I never said “carry on regardless.” What I advocate is making an informed, fact based travel decision that is right for you and yours without undue fear or outside intimidation.
You made several good points here Millennial and I have a factoid for you to consider. Since 1 January this year, 20k people in the USA have died of the good old garden variety flu and the complications engendered by same. Millions more have been sickened and recovered. Last I looked we supposedly have a vaccine for this virus, kind of. Not much of a panacea is it? And if we develop one for Corona guess what? Viruses mutate. Wanna bet how effective it’s gonna be?
Actually Corona viruses are nothing new. This is just an previously unknown strain. Anyway, how come people are panicking over 16 deaths and 300 sickened out of 360 million residents and are seemingly not worried about the 20K flu deaths this year? Human nature is interesting, is it not?
Ya know Millennial, someday if we’re ever in Disney at the same time I’d really like to have a beer with you in the lounge next to the Yachtsman Steakhouse. I bet we could have some fascinating, civilized debates and actually part somewhat friends.
Hell. I’ll even buy!
Ciao!
Jack
To Jack and Millennial – talk is cheap. Let’s make this real. I’ll bet each of you the amount of your choosing (you bring it, I’ll bet it) to the charity of your choice that US coronavirus deaths exceed that of the seasonal flu during the calendar year 2020 by no less than 200%. We can set it up on longbets, which is the site used by Warren Buffett for his famous bet against Jeff Tarrant. My charity is the Johns Hopkins Health System.
So bring it! Otherwise, take a walk!
And for those of you following, you will know that if Jack and Millennial don’t take me up on this offer, they value even just one of their dollars more than your life.
OK ArpyMickey. I don’t gamble but I’ll tell you what I will do.
First. let’s define our terms. I assume you are talking about the seasonal flu in the USA. I’m not going to base any data on China, for instance. I’ve lived and worked there for some years, from Dandong to Shanghai to Taiwan to HongKong. I know what their healthcare system is like. I’ve seen patients left outside on the street.
Anyway, if US deaths from Corona virus exceed 200% of that of seasonal flu I’ll make a thousand dollar donation to my local no kill animal shelter and show you the receipt. Homeless and abused animals are my charity. But what us your cutoff date? Midnight December 31st?
Oh and no matter what you say and do, I won’t be told to “take a walk” by anyone. Statements like that are made by people who can’t adequately support their opinions with logical arguments. If you persist in that line of attack I’m just going to ignore you, much as I do people who stand on boxes on street corners in tattered robes brandishing bullhorns, predicting the end of the world. Or a Zombie apocalypse. Or aliens transporting the chosen to another dimension while the earth explodes on Saturday next.
Unlike you, I have faith in the intelligence and compassion of most of my fellow humans, faith that given facts and figures they will make informed decisions based on real data, not cherry picked “expert” opinions, and that they will do this without being bullied and called immoral by someone who considers themselves morally superior and appoints themselves the world’s moral compass. BTW, speaking of “experts” did you know that one can find many educated people with advanced degrees who claim the earth is flat? And boy, do they have arguments and “experts” to back that up.
Any “expert” trotted out by people on one side of an argument or hypothesis, and an hypothesis is all you currently have, can be matched by one from the opposite side ad infinitum. Only time proves who is actully right, sometimes. Einstein was considered almost infallible, until quantum mechanics / physics came along. That actually puzzled the good man. Kind of blew a few unexplainable holes in some of his pet theories. Even Steven Hawking couldn’t explain the anomalies. As well, our concept of “Reality” was pretty much unchallenged, until the Simulation Hypothesis came along. That little gem though, tends to explain / justify some observations of quantum mechanics / physics and vice versa. As Spock might say, “Fascinating!”
Have a sparkling day!
$1K seems really low (by an order of at least 1 or 2 magnitudes) for someone of your confidence. I’ll just let your comment and proposed wager amount speak for itself.
Meanwhile, the American Hospital Association is preparing for 480,000 US deaths. https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3
Hey Arpy. I read your supporting article. I guess you missed the part that said “best guess”. I assume they were using their Magic 8-Ball? In any case I guess I missed the part that said how much you were putting up.
Have a wonderful evening! Your reply totally met my expectations. You are nothing if not predictable.
@arpeyMickey
Pistols at dawn 20 paces? The thing is Arpy I don’t have a horse in this race. I didn’t mention in any previous post anything comparing flu virus to covid-19. I haven’t stated which one I think is currently more deadly or which one will eventually kill more. Nor will I do so.
Here we are in 2021, Jack. I’m not here to gloat over correctly predicting the magnitude of the tragic events of 2020. I am here to say that what happened was entirely knowable at the time of our debate. I’d also love to see that $1k donation receipt.
And Tom – would love to know if you could go back to March knowing what you know now if you would have done anything differently. I don’t blame you for not doing things differently, but I do think it was a missed opportunity to use your platform to save lives.
Tom, thank you so much for this! I love that you’re always on top of disney updates from every aspect!! As a DCL CM I can say it’s been such a long couple of weeks! Guests should expect long hold times when calling in, no matter what time of day. We are pulling in backup support and doing all we can to get to every call in a timely manner.
We as cast members feel confident enough to sail and have been taking full advantage of those discounted rates! That being said, guests should of course evaluate their comfort level but not react out of fear caused by the media possibly over sensationalizing the impact here in the US.
Again, Tom and Sarah, thank you both so much for the constant unbiased updates! I have been a long time fan of you both and really appreciate the commitment you have to keeping everyone in the know!
Dear DCL CM
Love DCL and have September cruise scheduled. Hoping and praying no worries and we have smooth sailing!
What about the parks, business as usual is the prediction, right? I think you mentioned in a post that they didn’t close down during other outbreaks. Extending our Disney stay is our backup if we don’t go on our Carnival cruise (we decided to add 2 nights post-cruise a few weeks ago).
Thanks for the feedback, DCL CM. Sounds like you’re remaining upbeat through dealing with these long couple of weeks. I cannot imagine working in customer service during a time like this. I definitely do not have the disposition for it, so my hat goes off to you! 🙂
Thanks for your work DCL CM, I appreciate the effort. We have a cruise from San Diego mid April and are just hoping for the best that it will be able to sail. The email updates are very useful. I don’t feel the need to call up and ask questions. One day’s notice is very reasonable to cancel, if I understood that correctly.
Yes! Up until the day before 🙂 but hoping for the best always!
Sorry Atpy. No cookie.
According to the CDC six percent of the reported CORONA deaths actually were from COVID alone. That comes to under 20k. Flu deaths reported at 22k
Enjoy making your donation. I’ll take your word for it. I’ve already donated far more in our normal course of the hear as well as adopting a senior GSD to replace ours that died last June.
As an “Essential” Engineer I’ve flown over 100k miles and been working in almost every known virus “hotspot.” Challenging mainky because of hotel cutbacks but haven’t caught so much as a cold.
P.S. I really don’t visit here much anymore. I grew tired of working around Tom blocking my email address.
P.P.S. Tom, we’re just coming back from our first WDW trip of the year. The Epcot fountain is totally underwhelming! Did enjoy STK again tho. Went in November / December. Enjoyed walking onto most rides. More people this time but stayed at Jambo. Went with kids and grandchildren Really great. Not even open “officially!” You can keep your crowds.
Ciao
Jack