Disney World Crowds Continue Rising
September is supposed to be the “sleepy” month in terms of Walt Disney World crowds; it’s a stretch that consistently has the lowest attendance and wait times of the year after the holiday weekend. In this post, we’ll look at how things are playing out with higher crowds thus far in September 2020.
By way of recap, our Labor Day “Crowdpocalypse” Walt Disney World Crowd Report offered a look at the holiday weekend, which saw elevated attendance as compared to the doldrums of summer but not the extreme crowd levels predicted. We attributed this to the proactive Disney Park Pass reservation system, which prevented the level of crushing crowds observed over the same holiday period at Universal Orlando.
Our follow-up to that focused on the same weekend at EPCOT, which was busier than the other three parks but still not oppressively bad. That theorized these same scenarios would play out every holiday travel period, or any time Disney Park Pass reservations are limited or unavailable and offered strategy for beating the crowds. As it turned out, we didn’t have to wait long for the Labor Day peaks to be tested–those crowd levels were surpassed this past week at Walt Disney World…
Earlier in the week, we noticed higher average wait times and heavier crowds in a couple of Walt Disney World parks. To be honest, it didn’t really raise any red flags at the time. Although Labor Day does not normally see lingering guests from the holiday weekend, this isn’t an average year. All bets were off long ago.
Our preliminary assumption was that more people than normal delayed their summer vacations, taking them over Labor Day. That would’ve justified elevated crowds on Tuesday and Wednesday. While that’s possibly still true to an extent, it wouldn’t account for attendance gains accelerating later in the week and into the following weekend. There must be another explanation (or explanations, plural)…
The next possibility is the intuitive one: reduced hours account for longer wait times. Walt Disney World reduced operating hours across all four theme parks beginning on September 8, with Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios seeing an hour eliminated while EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw 2 hours cut.
It would thus make sense for wait times throughout the day to increase, as more guests are concentrated during a shorter window of time rather than being spread throughout the day. (Although there really wasn’t a ton of staggering given that the hours were already pretty limited.)
The shorter operating hours could account for some of the increase, but not all of it.
This is only a partial explanation because average waits (per Thrill-Data) over the course of the last week are 33.4% higher at Magic Kingdom, despite a 10% reduction in hours. Above is a look at the disparity between this past week (blue line) and the prior six weeks (all the other lines lumped together).
Equally as likely is that Walt Disney World has quietly increased park capacity. It’s a near-certainty that this has happened.
In our Disney Park Pass availability updates, we’ve stopped using the term “reallocated” and are instead using “replenished” or “refilled.” Those might seem like r-word synonyms of one another, but they’re not. Reallocations were occurring when availability was moved among the three “buckets” of inventory for resort guests, theme park ticket holders, and Annual Passholders.
There have been a few times recently when a park (or parks) have gone from unavailable across all three buckets to suddenly having availability after an inventory dump. This should be obvious, but when you have zero of something, a reallocation is not possible–only a refill.
We’ve pointed this out on a few occasions, but it’s easy to overlook. It’s plausible that most days simply are inventory redistributions from the resort guest and theme park ticket holder buckets since the calendar is usually a sea of green for those. That’s not always the case, though. (On that front, the next “date to watch” is September 19, 2020–currently “no parks available” across all three buckets. We shall see if that’s still the case after the customary Thursday afternoon inventory dump.)
It’s also worth noting that Walt Disney World lifted Cast Member blockouts after the holiday last week at every park except Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Note that this is not open admission–Cast Members are still required to make Disney Park Pass reservations, which are limited and prioritized below all three regular guest buckets.
Pent-up demand among Cast Members could help explain an increase in crowds last week during a time that would naturally be Florida’s off-season. September is normally slow because it’s a weak time for tourism and most locals are going back to school or work during the week. With tens of thousands of Cast Members still furloughed, more than normal are able to visit the parks.
The culmination all these variables is elevated wait times throughout the last week, with a crowd-crescendo over the weekend. While EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw slightly lower average wait times as compared to the holiday weekend, both Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios had more significant increases.
Given that the comparison is between a holiday weekend and regular off-season weekend, we would’ve expected the latter to see a pronounced decrease. That’s what would’ve occurred in a normal year.
Over the Saturday of the holiday weekend, we were delighted to find that crowds at Disney’s Hollywood Studios were actually lower than the post-reopening average. It would seem that Disney over-corrected here, as wait times this Saturday (blue line) were up 66% over the holiday weekend (red line).
It probably also doesn’t help that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance had an abysmal weekend, getting through only 36 boarding groups one day and 40 the other. That’s a sharp contrast to the record 128 boarding groups the Saturday of Labor Day weekend.
We’re to the point now where wait times in September 2020 are higher than they were last September. Above is a comparison between the post-Labor Day week this year (blue line) versus last year (red line) at Magic Kingdom.
Obviously, this is not an apples to apples comparison given the dramatically reduced park hours and lack of FastPass+ this year. Nevertheless, with midday waits about 10 minutes higher this year (plus the aforementioned lack of FastPass+ and cut hours), it’s fair to say that waits are quantitatively worse. You’d accomplish far less on a full day this September than last.
UPDATE: It was quickly pointed out to us that Hurricane Dorian skewed crowd numbers in the week following Labor Day last year (thanks James S!). That is absolutely accurate–those were some of the lowest crowd levels and least-busy Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties we’ve experienced in years.
As such, above is a look at the Magic Kingdom wait time trends last week (blue line) as compared to the week of 9/9/19 (red line). That’s a lot better! Still, not quite what we’d like to see given the circumstances and other compromises of visiting Walt Disney World right now.
The silver lining, if you’re looking for one, is that congestion still remains relatively low most weekdays. If that’s your measure of crowd levels (as opposed to wait times), Walt Disney World is still in good shape. Weekends are a bit dicier, though.
The elimination of FastPass+ means guests are not in two places at one time. On top of that, wait times are increasing at levels disproportionate to actual attendance since attractions are being operated at significantly reduced capacity. This means that most of the time, the “feels like” crowds while wandering around are still pretty low.
Most of you who are contemplating a trip right now–with all of the compromises that entails–are probably doing so due to reports of low wait times. So the whole low “feels like” crowds angle is probably grasping at straws. (Just trying to find a bit of positivity in this!)
Strategically, you can still beat the worst of the crowds by simply avoiding weekends. There’s a significant split between weekdays and weekends, and avoiding the parks on Saturdays and Sundays–or doing Disney’s Hollywood Studios then–is a savvy plan of attack. That will probably remain true going forward.
Frankly, I’m not sure what the takeaway is here. Drawing any definitive conclusions from one week of what should be the off-season is a tad premature. That’s especially true as Walt Disney World continues to test & adjust what works and doesn’t, making tweaks as the phased reopening process continues.
Organic demand among tourists remains low. The vast majority of Americans are not yet comfortable visiting theme parks. Most potential guests have either cancelled or postponed Walt Disney World vacations until 2021. All it would take is a pullback of Disney Park Pass reservations for Annual Passholders and/or Cast Member blockouts, and the story would be very different here. There’s nothing to say that either or both won’t happen, especially if the more lucrative tourists and day guests get cold feet about visiting due to rising attendance and wait times.
On the other hand, these trends make sense and we have no reason to believe they’re total anomalies. Walt Disney World’s goal is to gradually increase attendance and capacity, which is something that has played out at other parks that have also reopened. To an extent, the interests of guests and those of Disney align here.
Both want to see restaurants, entertainment, seasonal offerings, longer hours, etc. return, and the only way that happens is with increased demand. (Disney isn’t bringing back Cinderella’s Royal Table or Minnie’s Halloween Dine out of corporate benevolence–it’s because both are now viewed as sustainable.) Guests just don’t want higher wait times. It’s something of a catch-22 situation.
Basically, our goal here is to offer readers an early “heads up” that while congestion levels will probably remain low for the remainder of the year, we’re now seeing signs that wait times may not. Until Walt Disney World can increase attraction capacity, which probably wouldn’t happen until physical distancing recommendations are eased, wait times for popular attractions will steadily increase with increased park attendance and capacity caps. Just one more thing to consider if you’re still on the fence about a 2020 Walt Disney World trip. We’ll keep you posted as to how this plays out and changes over the coming weeks.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit Walt Disney World this week or weekend? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? If you’ve been in past Septembers, how do you feel this compared? Are you okay with longer waits if it means a greater return to normalcy–or will you just wait to visit Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Sounds like different experiences for different folks. Some people say the lines are not long waits for the rides. Some are saying it’s not worth it to be at Disney World right now. For the people that are there this past week, what are your thoughts? Is it worth it to go? We are going in November.
After much deliberation (and even after the cut in hours after we had already made, and then modified, reservations) we pulled the trigger and did take our trip. We were in the parks M-F, 9/14-9/18. Every day but Friday felt quite a bit less crowded than our last visit 5 years ago. Since it was a Friday – maybe 3-day weekends, maybe people being locked out for Saturday?Monday at MK had quite a few walk-ons, while Friday not so much. Friday was considerably more crowded – lots more people and strollers. Nothing impossible, nor a sea of humanity, but a definite, immediately noticeable difference, and we had at least a bit of a wait for pretty much every ride – some long enough for us to forego entirely.
Animal Kingdom we were able to do everything easily, with time to spare for seconds and thirds. HS was reasonably doable, although Runaway Railway and Smugglers Run were each 60 minutes. Epcot was walk-on for most.
For us it ended up being worth it. Our kids are just at the right age, and we have other trips planned for 2021. We would have loved longer hours of course (Epcot is a big park to cover, and my kids loved all of it – Future World, World Showcase, Impressions de France), but looked on the bright side (we saw World Showcase at nearly empty after dinner, and when else are we going to see an empty Fantasyland at sunset?).
Answer is – it probably depends on what “long” is to you, and “worth it” is to you. Just to be free of so much pedestrian traffic was nice, in comparison to our last visit, where it could get claustrophobic. Our kids had lots of impromptu character interactions, we loved the easy-goingness of the calvacades (and all the waves right to them) and the ability to be much more spontaneous ended up being perfect for us. All that being said, if everyday was like Friday, with the reduced hours, we MIGHT not be singing the same tune. Or maybe we wouldn’t have known the difference had we not had had such a quiet MK Monday, because ignorance is bliss!
We are leaving now after 4 days 3 parks. Monday at Epcot and Tuesday at Magic Kingdon were crowded. Wednesday at Hollywood and Thursday at MK were alright. If you had not made reservations a month ago you were not getting anything but pizza, hamburgers or tacos.
November should be better.
Emmy- Thanks for your input! I think we will go ahead and pull the trigger and go. We’re going for 12 days in November at Riviera and we are so excited. We are doing 3 park days- going to MK on Monday, Epcot on Tuesday, and Hollywood studios on Thursday. It is mostly a resort staycation. I have a special-needs 13-year-old and we utilize the DAS pass. That will help out with any lines that are over a 45 minute wait.. We went to Disney the past 2 September’s, so, I think this November trip will definitely be less crowded? We don’t really care about the parades and fireworks. We will miss the character meet and greets:(
Was at MK 9/14, HS 9/15, and MK 9/16. On every day and both parks the wait times posted were not close to accurate. For example multiple times the wait time posted was 45 minutes and we walked on. We never waited the full wait time for any ride and that includes riding slinky dog 6 times at HS. Posted wait times are not a good benchmark to decide actual wait times.
We are about to book a trip and be in parks
Monday 10/19
Tuesday 10/20
Wed 10/21
Thur 10/22
and a half day 10/23
What order do you y’all suggest for crowds to be the lowest?
I’m booked at the same time. I’m thinking of canceling.
With the room package discount I am worried the parks will starting to get crowded by then with cooler weather and kids doing virtual school.
SAME. We’re booked the week before Oct 2-7 and I’m getting worried. Today (9-17) The posted wait times are long for a Thursday at 2:00.
Soarin. 85 minutes
Frozen. 85 minutes
Since fast passes came out and taking advantage of extra magic hours, I haven’t waited in a long line in years
Melissa, A woman who went today said she saw posted times today of 45 minutes to 1 hour and they just walked on the rides over and over. She said at HS and MK the times didn’t match the waits.
Came to Hollywood Studios today (9/16/2020) and was surprised by the number of people. MMR never fell below 70 minutes and smugglers run held at about an hour all day until almost close. Luckily we were able to get everything in at least once.
Went in mid August. Split time between our time share in Clermont and WDW Saratoga Springs (I had points to spend and the cost was too cheap to pass up). On the days we went to the parks, we stayed on property to use the WDW buses.
Lines were basically non existent. We did DHS on Tuesday and were able to get in the 2:00 queue for the Star Wars ride/show/attraction/event. We finally got on around 6:00. In the meantime, it was almost walk on for most rides. We avoided anything with a wait time more than 15 minutes. Did everything we wanted to do except M&M Train. Dining, or the lack thereof, was an issue as there were very few options. The new app ordering system helped a lot and they made every attempt to make seating available. All in all 9 out of 10. Friday we went to AK. We slept in and got there around 11:00. We left by 3:00 having done everything we wanted to do. Also 9 out of 10. I would have given it a 10 but Chester & Hester’s games were closed. I wanted to spend $50 winning a $5 stuffed animal for my wife. If it is like this in December, I will probably go back.
Trying to make a decision to go to DW at the only window of time we’ll have until Mid-2021- last 3 days of Dec and first 4 days of Jan. Probably the worst time ever…There’s been such a mixed bag about DW, minuses (a pretty long list) vs the pluses. Who knows what it will be like by the end of December, roll the dice. For me, it’s a significant chunk of change to go, even with cheaper airfare, etc. Literally, one day I’m ready to book and the next day I’m like, no, wait. Reports of everyone’s experiences seem to be all over the map!
We are in the same boat. I had a resort and ticket package planned for thanksgiving week, then decided to cancel because the cost was too high. A few weeks later I found a great deal at Pop Century during Christmas week (with the recent pin code released….$117 a night!) and decided to book that. But we are definitely nervous about crowds plus it’s still a pricey vacation for just a few days With limited experiences. We have some time though to decide if it’s worth it. We have been dying to go back since our trip in March was cancelled right after Disney closed. Wish y’all the best with your trip!
Could it also be most kids are not physically in school and many schools have delayed start if they are physically openoto the end of September??!
Yes. Some schools are not going back in person until 2021. And in our area the balance of school districts won’t go in person until Oct 5th. Charter schools and private schools have already started
Southern schools (mostly) have been back in school since first of August
Luckily, we still get to have our usual fall break First of October.
Disney has in recent years become overly crowded first and second week in October.
Almost unbearably crowded like can’t even enjoy the booths in Epcot for the food and wine festival because of tremendous lines.
We’re headed down to hopefully bask in the lower crowds situation that WAS going on a month ago but who knows. the resorts seem to be booking up quite a bit more last couple of days for sure.
Tom-
The o my reason anyone is contemplating a last minute trip right now is to get the double dose of country bears (show and character experience)
Low crowds are not really a concern for WDW
This situation reminds me a lot of my local Target back in June when customers started feeling comfortable shopping in the store again: a large amount of shoppers (and increasing by the day) coupled with only two registers being open led to the checkout line winding almost to the back of the store. Let’s hope this is just a blip; if this is a trend it will lead to some seriously miserable park-going in the coming months.
What is the best park to do on my first day, a Sunday. I choose dining soon so I hope Tom or Sarah, you can help out.
Do you think they will bring fast passes back any time soon?
Today Sept 15 2020 Daughter arrived to Hollywood Studios 1/2 hour before 10 am opening so she could get thru the gate in order to join virtual line for Star Wars. Went thru gate, logged onto mydisney experience app, and no space left in virtual line. Or any other top ride. All within 15 minutes of gate opening. As a long time Florida Resident Disney World fan whose held multiple back to back yearly passes, every year the experiences at the parks have diminished, and frankly have become a series of disappointments and frustrations. This most current visit today, requiring an appointment to visit one of the parks, mask use, social distancing within park and in the parking lot, and not able to get onto rides, adds up to less than a magical experience. My daughter sent a text to me after being denied múltiple virtual spaces in line, which said, “ Disney isn’t fun anymore. I’m think I’m going to start going to Universal.” Sad, truly the magic is gone.
I really wanna visit some time in November or December but I’m so concerned about wait times :0 it’s only worth the trouble if they are still low otherwise without fast passes it would be miserable
Rise of the Resistance is the only “virtual line” in all of the Disney parks… everything else is stand by right now – no reservations, no fast passes. And it’s long been known that if you are not in the park and on the app at 10:00, you have no chance of getting on ROR. You can wait until 2:00 when they do another virtual line. But I’m a little confused how your daughter was denied multiple virtual spaces in line.
I will agree that the Magic is gone from Disney. Anyone arguing otherwise has blinders on. Even just a short 5 years ago Disney was a much different experience. And to be honest, Universal isn’t that much better. Long lines, shoulder to shoulder packed parks… Maybe it’s just the economy is that much better and more people are truly able to afford to visit the parks. Having an annual pass and being a local you understood when not to go and those “down” times throughout the year were why you had an AP. There really isn’t a down time anymore. And now with all of the ridiculous and unproven requirements like masks, coupled with reducing the hours, it’s absolutely pointless to waste the time and effort to go. So yes, truly is sad.
Tom,
Am I seeing correctly for the weekend that was full – availability again for this upcoming weekend? Are they adding again which increases wait time?
We were there from 9/6 until 9/12. The only day that felt really busy was 9/12 at Magic Kingdom. It was very quiet for the first few hours, but the afternoon was the busiest we saw it, including Labor Day at MK.
When will the masks go away?
Seriously, especially outdoors. If you want me to wear a mask indoors while waiting in line at space mountain, ok. But outdoors? That’s a bit crazy in my opinion.
Hard to imagine Disney being a leader in that category. I have a feeling masks are going to be a requirement for quite a while.
I arrived with my family on September 9 and will be departing the 16th. The weekend crowds felt significantly higher compared to weekdays. Disney Springs on Saturday evening was awful, it was PACKED and aside from the store queues there was no way to stay distanced from others. We were there on a Wednesday night and it was pretty calm so i assume it was just due to the weekend.
The only park we felt was supremely busy was Hollywood studios on Saturday – we go again today and we’ll see if it feels less crowded. We managed to get boarding group 8 for rise of the resistance, and by the time we walked to that corner of the park it was our turn to board. But the ride broke down while we were in the bay with all the storm troopers, we sat there for a good 30 minutes before we were taken out a back hallway and given a fast pass return. They didn’t reopen the ride for at least 2 hours, and It broke down again while earlier in the queue. It was nearly 2pm by the time we successfully rode the entire thing and I think at that point they were at group 14. On Sunday at animal kingdom there was a point where the avatar flight of passage ride had a 140 minute wait which i was shocked to see!
Hi there!
As I wait for / plan my trip in November (13-18) Ive been reading your blog religiously. Thank you for all the scoop!
Two questions – (1) do you think they will increase Nov hours again if things continue in a positive light? ; and (2) have you heard any rumors regarding Crystal Palace? It’s killing me that it’s closed and I’m just hoping they change their mind and open before my trip
Agree with these concerns. Early August was great-low crowds made for short wait times and fun despite the restrictions. Labor Day weekend Saturday was a low point and one of our kids has a difficult experience getting overheated and not being allowed to enter any shady spots because all shade was at full capacity. Debating cancelling Columbus Day weekend trip if these trends continue. Bringing back the fast pass system on high volume days it seems would allow everyone to meet their goals more effectively perhaps.
We went for 10 days in August. Flew whole family from the West Coast. For us, the lack of need to micromanage a WDW trip was too good an opportunity to pass up. The low crowds and short lines were worth the cuts in entertainment. Not everyone will agree with that trade off. The rock bottom airfare and offsite hotel rates sealed the deal. And yes, we felt very safe the entire time – never been in such a clean plane, clean hotel, clean theme park in my entire life!
Hi Tom! I am headed there for a 5 day adventure (first time at Disney World!) starting this Friday-following Wednesday) I was thinking this schedule, does it seem right or would you switch anything?
Fri-MK
Sat-AK
Sun-Day Off
Mon-HS
Tues-EP
Wed-MK
Would switch your Sat and Sun–Sat always seems to be the most crowded day at parks. Sunday isn’t great either but marginally better.
I would switch to this:
Mon – Epcot
Tues – MK
Wed – HS