Disney World Crowds Up 40% Last Month
Historically, September is the least-busy month at Walt Disney World in terms of crowd levels and average wait times. Even as other off-season months have spiked in recent years, September has held strong as being a reliably quiet and good month to visit for those seeking low crowds.
On that basis, we predicted early-on in the process of Walt Disney World’s phased reopening that July and August would see the worst of pent-up demand and visitors seeking a last-minute escape before school went back into session. Following that, our expectation was a slow September–likely with the lowest crowd levels since post-9/11.
If going by raw attendance, you could say we were right. Of course, that’s only because of limits imposed by the Disney Park Pass system, and wouldn’t account for reduced capacity rides, or shows, restaurants, and stores that were closed. In actuality, September 2020 was the worst in recent memory, especially when crowds are judged on the basis of posted wait times…
By way of recap, September started out on a good note, with our Labor Day “Crowdpocalypse” Walt Disney World Crowd Report ended up not showing the extreme crowd levels predicted. Things quickly went downhill from there, as we returned with Crowds Continue Rising at Walt Disney World, which revealed concerning trends in what should’ve been the off-season.
Judging by our review of average waits (per Thrill-Data), things only got worse from there. Let’s take a park by park look at the increases in month over month wait time increases at Walt Disney World, followed by some commentary to explain the cause of these spikes and the degree to which you should be concerned…
First up is Magic Kingdom. Here, the green line is September, with red being August and blue being July.
Even a cursory glance reveals that crowds were up substantially last month, with a larger increase than the one from August to July. Here, wait times were up 41% as compared to August and nearly 70% as compared to July.
Next, we head to Disney’s Hollywood Studios, which has been our pick for the worst park (subjectively speaking) on the most consistent basis since the beginning of the phased reopening.
September wait times at DHS were up 39% as compared to August, and 58% as compared to July.
Over at Animal Kingdom each of those lines are even farther apart, with crowds almost exactly doubling each month since reopening
Wait times were up 45% last month as compared to August, and 103% since July.
Finally, EPCOT. Here, there really was not much of a difference between July and August, but a sharp increase in September crowds.
All told, we’re looking at an increase of 33% as compared to August at EPCOT.
When averaged across all four parks, wait times were up 40% in September 2020 as compared to August. (If averaging across all attractions, that number would likely be slightly different, as we’re giving equal weight to parks with different numbers of rides.)
Let’s take a look at some of the likely causes for this…
First, Walt Disney World reduced operating hours across all four theme parks beginning after Labor Day weekend, with Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios seeing an hour eliminated while EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw 2 hours cut.
It thus makes sense for wait times to increase, as more guests are concentrated during a shorter window of time rather than being spread throughout the day. However, those reductions are only 10-20% and some hours were extended on weekends. So that’s a partial explanation, at best.
Walt Disney World increasing and/or better allocating Disney Park Pass availability is the better explanation. In July and even August, Annual Passholders saw mostly “unavailable” dates despite a sea of green on the reservation calendars for theme park ticket holders and resort guests. In late August, Walt Disney World was more proactive in reallocating availability, allowing more APs to visit the parks.
Additionally, there have been many dates that were totally unavailable across all three calendars that suddenly became available. Walt Disney World denies having increased park capacity, but that’s flatly contradicted by their own reservations system.
Quite simply, Walt Disney World offered more Park Pass reservations in September 2020 than the months before. This is especially true for Annual Passholders and Cast Members, who had significantly more opportunities to visit the parks than July or August.
In our estimation, Floridians accounted for the vast majority of the increase and the spike is due almost entirely to more Disney Park Pass availability. This is also why there’s such a disparity between weekdays versus weekends, except at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
There are other viable contributing explanations. First, Florida’s declining case numbers and the relaxation/removal of some quarantines for Walt Disney World travelers made visiting viable and more attractive for some out of state tourists.
Second, the rise of virtual learning and working made visiting during the off-season more attractive. Finally, that reports of low crowds in July and August prompted many to book trips to take advantage of those.
There’s probably a sliver of truth and credibility to each of these theories. However, I am skeptical that each moved the needle much, if at all. We did several resort stays and visits in September, and our anecdotal experiences during those suggested to us that occupancy was flat or even down as compared to summer. Compulsive checking of the Disney Vacation Club booking engine corroborates this–with way more availability available for September 2020 than a normal year.
Unfortunately, I have not heard any credible rumors or insight into hotel occupancy numbers at Walt Disney World or nearby off-site hotels–I’m simply going off of my own observations here. Nevertheless, I’d be downright shocked if out of state visitors accounted for more than a few percentage points of the attendance increase.
While this 40% increase in wait times at Walt Disney World is obviously not good news, it’s also probably not as bad as the eye-popping headline might suggest. Our recent EPCOT Photo Report: Stay Away on Weekends and Magic Kingdom Weekend Report: Beating Heavier Crowds & Higher Waits offer insight into the disparity between posted wait times and actual wait times.
In short, posted wait times are heavily inflated at Walt Disney World. This is almost always the case, but it’s especially pronounced right now. We’ve personally experienced this on a consistent and repeated basis. There have been instances where the posted wait time is 40 minutes and our actual wait is 5 minutes. Inflation of 50% or more is pretty much the norm right now.
There are likely a couple reasons why this is happening. A cynic might suggest that it’s to give Wall Street an inflated impression of performance–that things are back to normal and business is booming. Perhaps there’s some degree of truth to that.
More likely, it’s to discourage more guests from getting into certain lines. Due to physical distancing and almost every guest being in the standby line (as opposed to FastPass+ inflating wait times and thus reducing the size of the standby line), these lines are filling up. Extended queues are in use, and often overflowing from those and spilling out into walkways. Even then, the actual wait often isn’t that bad.
That presents a problem, as posting the actual wait time would encourage more guests to queue up–to the point where some of these lines would become totally unmanageable and have literally nowhere to go. It’s feasible for the Frozen Ever After queue to extended into the China pavilion since that’s mostly unused. It cannot, however, extend all the way to Italy without impeding operations.
Inflating the wait times discourages lines from getting longer. Locals, Cast Members, and Annual Passholders–many of whom have done every attraction countless times, often balk at any posted wait time over 30 minutes. Since this trio disproportionately makes up Walt Disney World’s guest-base right now, this strategy is particularly effective.
Wait times were unreliable in July and August, but not inflated to the degree we experienced in September. Accordingly, the percentage growth of wait times almost certainly does not reflect the percentage increase in attendance.
With that said, attendance was unquestionably higher in September 2020 than the two months that came before it. We’re not trying to explain all of this away. Crowds were heavier, actual waits were longer, and congestion was noticeable in some spots. In short, there were definitely more guests each of the parks every single day. There is no getting around that.
In some cases (EPCOT on weekends and Disney’s Hollywood Studios before 2 pm every day), our view is that it ‘feels like’ crowds were worse than the story told by posted wait times. In other cases (the other two parks or other days/times at those two), the ‘feels like’ crowds were not nearly as bad as the wait times suggested.
Ultimately, this should be both concerning and reassuring. It’s troubling that wait times and crowds are growing, but we should expect that to continue. Walt Disney World’s goal is to gradually increase attendance and capacity, which is something that has also played out at other parks that have also reopened.
The silver lining even there, though, is it means more restaurants, stores, entertainment, and longer hours will return with those crowds. Another reassuring thing is that actual wait times are not as bad as those graphs indicate, as inflation is pretty rampant and extreme right now. Additionally, in many cases there isn’t anywhere for more crowds to go without opening more or increasing ride capacity. Quite simply, actual wait time increases should decelerate.
In normal years, October through December get progressively busier. There’s simply no way for 40% increases each month through the end of this year. Something’s gotta give. Walt Disney World has several available tools for achieving that, from decreasing Disney Park Pass availability for Annual Passholders and Cast Members to reducing empty seats or adding dividers on ride vehicles. Walt Disney World’s ‘ghost town’ crowds of the summer are definitely a thing of the past, but the future outlook is better–especially for those who want to see things get back to normal.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit Walt Disney World in September 2020? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? Did you notice a significant difference between posted and actual wait times? If you’ve been in past Septembers, how do you feel this compared? Any theories as to why this happened? Are you okay with longer waits if it means a greater return to normalcy—or will you just wait to visit Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I went MK for AP Preview and then one other date in late July, then again today. Crowds are definitely larger, but not out of control.
Slightly incidental, but Pirates said a 50 minute wait and it was 22. Pooh said 25 and it was 11. We were just there for a few hours and were mainly interested in atmosphere, so that’s the only two we rode, but time inflation is also 100% a thing.
Do the dismissed cast members keep their main gate passes until the end of the year?? I wonder, if not that should decrease the crowds a bit. I feel bad for them. If things turn out well maybe they can return to Disney.
I’m scheduled to go early November and early January.
Tom, do you know what restaurants at Coronado will be opening? I started making dining reservations for our trip starting November 29, and the restaurants there were labeled as temporarily closed, even for the first week of December.
We had Disneyland tickets for a March 2020 trip, then COVID… rescheduled for August. We know how that played out. So we transferred our tix to DW for a 12/27 – 1/1 trip. We spent Christmas week at DW 2018 and 2019 at Pop with free dining. This will be our first year to stay offsite. A condo for 5 is incredibly affordable. We drive the 16 hours from Arkansas so we will have our vehicle as well. Will definitely be a different kind of trip but still looking forward to it. We did not qualify for the southern discount and no pin code either!
Anyway, I’m an avid reader of this blog gleaning all the tips I can to make the best of a temporary abnormal situation. Info on crowds, dining, and all the things are much appreciated. Thanks!
Hey Tom I appreciate your article and insight but wanted to ask about a few points you are making. The headline is how WDW crowds are up 40% last month, but then you lead into the posted wait times are essentially inflated. As you mention your experience is anecdotal at best, but then compared with thrill data and various pictures from frequent attendees it does seem the park crowds with lack of dining and shows are bottlenecking a bit. I would think some of those wait times are probably pretty accurate and some super misleading. We were there in July from out of town staying at BWI and jumped in RNRR line which was posted 25 minute wait. We were in line for 55 minutes, which was based on a cleaning cycle (or so all of us in line speculated). We had other experiences of cleaning phenomenon’s on Splash and others, as well as some low wait surprises. So I would think it be remiss not to try and average the wait times instead of mentioning they are mostly inflated. I think it goes a little both ways.
I appreciate your blog and insight as we usually only go 3-4 times a year and don’t have the park presence that you do, so I can only speak to what we experienced. We have a trip in late November scheduled and with the layoffs, lack of dining, and other features we are really struggling with pulling the trigger and going. Let me know if you want to discuss further, .. just kidding 🙂 Have a great day!
Hi Tom,
I think the inflation in the wait times is also due to cleaning time for the attractions. The more people in line increases the amount of cleaning hence more time added to the queue. We were there in Sept for a week and all of our waits were much lower then posted. We did miss out on the empty/no lines from July but we were glad to be back and grateful for all the efforts the cast members were taking.
Ps I look forward to reading your post and beautiful pics. I lived in Orlando for five years and have learned more about Disney since I moved thanks to your blog. It’s my daily Disney fix!
Best Regards
Someone came from Bahamas to Canada and had to change planes in Florida. They were shocked at how many people in the airport were not masking and didn’t see any social distancing, not even for lining up to get on planes!!!!.
When they landed in Canada they were warned about how crazy we are. That you MUST have your mask on, must follow the lines, and must social distance. …like most of the world.
I can’t see many foreign people willing to deal with that. Yes Disney is trying to do a great job- but you have to get there. I’ve read on blogs like this how local people like going to Disney because they feel safer at Disney then at going shopping outside of Disney.
Hi tom, what would you recomend between going end october/early november or planing the trip for late february/march?
Thanks
Fyi we al getting there from south america and planing a 1 week trip. Thanks for your advice
We stayed at the Contemporary in August and I think that was a good choice as it had all the food options open plus we rented a car which allowed us to get to other resorts for meals which was important as we were able to do everything we wanted at each park and leave to get out of the heat. Just figuring out different strategies and now looks like different strategies for when we go in November.
And although the thought of higher crowds sounds bad, I believe it’s a good thing. Higher attendance will drive higher resort bookings, dining, spending, hiring, etc. to get things back to something more normal (which was huge crowds!)
I think Disney out to refund AP holders. Don’t get me wrong: I want to get one, and can’t wait until it is feasible again. But right now, if they are laying off employees, llimiting numbers, and still requiring masks, they need to be consistent!!! It should’ve be overly crowded until it’s safe for it to be crowded. I’m not worried about it, but do not like the inconsistent message. AP can be given the FL resident visits or whatever. It is not forever, and I would think occasional visitors spend more per visit, since they are paying for tickets and possibly hotels. They need to increase revenue without overcrowding the parks for awhile.
Tom – do you think that the inflated wait times might be due to the ques being reconfigured for social distancing causing how the wait times are calculated being off? I am not sure how wait times are calculated, but I remember cast members periodically giving someone coming into a line a lanyard with instructions to hand it to another cast member before boarding. I always thought that might be to test the posted wait times.
I thought that at first back in July, but it’s been a few months now and has only gotten less accurate. It cannot be a coincidence that wait times are consistently inflated by such a degree.
When I worked at MK (granted, a long time ago) we got reamed by Supervisors for having inaccurate waits posted. During normal operations, CM have a very good idea of the actual wait times based on ride vehicle configurations and such. At 20K, we would often start and end the day running only 3 or 4 subs, then later change to 3 packs of two, then three once we opened rear dock. Barring breakdowns, we really had a good feel for the wait and the greeter was responsible for monitoring the line (while ducking from seagull attacks swooping in to attack Storybook Treats folks). Remember the grid of wires across between Storybook and the 20K queue? It was to discourage birds!
But back to Tom’s point, yes posted times were highly inflated in September.
It’s a nice half day local trip right now. The food situation is unsustainable I think there are 4 restaurants in MK? We’ve never packed a lunch before but with the new bag check system we are now picnickers. It’s place to go in the morning, ride some rides, eat lunch and go home or come around noon and eat dinner and leave.
It would shockingly disappointing to travel for but you know it’s not bad. With the relaxed mask mandate it’s one of the only places we can go where we KNOW people will be wearing masks (not even a day after the mandate was weakened we saw the entire staff at a restaurant without masks, receptionists at doctor’s offices with out masks. It’s going to get bad before it better for sure)
We don’t really feel there are a lot of other places for us to go where people will consistently be masked. My moms group was annoyed because most of us had just started to venture out and dine al fresco but with the inability to charge fines for violations there is no incentive for restaurant staff to mask up.
So I’m going to keep using Disney like the local park until they do something about masks in the rest of Florida.
We went from sept 10-15 2020 and originally booked 4 days of park tickets. My older kids logged into classes in the mornings and afterwards and were able to not be marked absent – which I take as a perk! We gave up our fourth day of Disney parks and went to universal instead bc we kept running out of things to do. That sounds negative, and I guess it sort of is, but it also meant we did all the available rides that we wanted. Animal Kingdom was the biggest let down for my kids as so much was closed…but! We rode Avatar 3 times! (Using child swap) There was not much for the smaller kids there though and that was when we decided to go to Universal the next day. Some lines would say 30 mins…but it was a 15 min walk to the end of the line. Some lines LOOKED huge (like haunted mansion and small world) but moved at a great clip. The lack of shows/entertainment/fireworks was a bummer…but the shorter time in the parks bc of lack of things to do, meant we were not NEARLY as exhausted. The hand sanitizer stations around Disney were frequent, but the HUGE delay between multiple people using was so aggravating that I highly suggest just bringing lots of your own. It really held up the entrance and exit lines when my 5 kids would try to use Disney’s dispenser. Universal had a much better (IMO) system of a cast member squirting sanitizer into every single riders hands BEFORE they were allowed on a ride. I loved that. I’m still glad we went, but this was a very different Disney.
Oh – the dinning situation at Disney was a huge frustration. SO many places were closed! And G*d help anyone who didn’t have the app for mobile ordering…we saw one woman turned away in tears at the cafe place in future land for being told she could ONLY do mobile ordering and she didn’t have a smartphone. We had an amazon pantry and amazon fresh delivery to pack tons of snack and Uber eats brought us dinner at night bc the meals at Old Key West were a mile walk away and super limited selections
Thanks for sharing your experience!
Dining is definitely one of the biggest problem points right now, but even that has started to improve in the last couple weeks (EPCOT, for example, reopened about a half-dozen new spots just last weekend). It seems to be worst in Magic Kingdom and some resorts–hopefully more restaurants and snack spots are reopened ASAP.
We’re heading down the last week of October. I’m nervous not knowing what to expect. I hope wait times won’t be too bad.
Add in all the resort closures (Jambo House-except the fifth floor, Polynesian, BC, BWI, POR, POFQ, All Stars, AoA), you’d think the wait times would be even less. What is occupancy in the DVC villas? I know they have been using them as overflow from the closed resorts as well as DVC member points stays. Any idea, Tom?
One more question, when it says wait times, that is just for attractions, right? Not for dining.
I don’t have any credible numbers on occupancy at the DVC resorts. Based on my observations, I’d say lower than normal but much higher than the ‘pure’ hotels (Yacht Club, Contemporary, CBR, Pop).
These wait times are just for attractions, not dining.
Having just gone for four days last week, it definitely felt “normal”, even with the reduced crowds. Not packed to the gills, not unsafe, just sufficiently full. I think it’s because there are usually 3-5 shows/sing-a-longs going on in each park at any given time, teamed with lines for character meet and greats, parades, etc. Not having those other events going on forces all of the wait times to their usual 30-90 minutes in the peak times.
We had a very fun time regardless of the lack of shows, park hopping, and shortened hours. Honestly, we missed the fast passes the most. Having a “known” in a see of unknowns is chicken soup for the soul.
Good points all around, and thanks for sharing your experience!
Weren’t the Florida Resident Discover Disney Tickets extended through September 30th, 2020, instead of the end of July? Any chance that could account for a September rush to use those up prior to expiration? (Not a FL resident, so I don’t really know much about how it works.)
I think the ongoing Florida Resident ticket deals (both the pre-closure and post-closure ones) are a huge contributing factor, but the expiration of the earlier batch of tickets probably isn’t having a big impact on its own.
Interesting…there is outrage among Disney park fans over the huge layoff of employees, the reduction in hours/perks/events, etc. without a reduction in price, and the loss of all the other things that make a trip so spectacular, BUT…the people just keep coming. Several Disney-oriented Facebook pages that I follow are full of people who are there, or headed there. Fort Wilderness Campground is apparently booked solid for months. You mentioned “voting with your wallet” in an earlier post…it would appear that outrage is not enough to keep people away, so I’d say the wallets are good with all the reductions. Then again, there is nothing else quite like a Disney park. (Speaking of Fort Wilderness campground, since camping has become so wildly popular, maybe WDW should consider expanding the campgrounds? A future article about the campgrounds and their future might be interesting!)
I think most of the people attending (50%+) are AP holders/locals or people that had already paid for tickets. I dont think there are many people traveling and booking hotels and I do believe people are voting with their wallet. If you read the statement on the earnings report, they specifically mentioned that half of the people were locals and logic would say that that number has increased to account for the September increases Tom mentions in this report (by shifting lack of resort and day of ticket purchase Park Passes to AP holders). I think you will see in the next eps report that closer to 75%+ were AP holders/locals and in fact, people are voting with their wallets. We have cancelled twice already and are scheduled to come in April 2021. If FP+, fireworks, EMH, etc. are still not available then we will be cancelling again.
I would love to vote with my wallet. Unfortunatly for me NOT to give my money to the mouse I lose $800 on Rented DVC points. The DVC holder got their money and they get to keep it weather I show up or not. So GO I will, enjoy my stay I will. Go to the parks I will not… oh wait, yes I will. I’m military and i pre bought my tickets and I don’t know when I’ll be allowed to take leave again!
Sometimes the wallet doesn’t win.
I think it’s a bit more complicated than that. I do think that a lot of “voting with wallets” is already occurring in the form of tourists staying home right now because the value proposition is simply not there. When it is and they start returning, I’d expect many to choose cheaper or off-site accommodations because the value proposition still isn’t there for hotels. It’s not all or nothing.
Beyond that, going to the extreme of boycotting the parks over the layoffs only helps exacerbate that problem–the layoffs are happening in part because of low attendance and guest spending. Further drops mean more layoffs, whereas increases mean fewer layoffs or rehires.
That’s before we even discuss DVC, CMs, and locals (the overwhelming majority of guests right now), which is several other cans of worms…
I’ve said for years that they could double the price of tickets overnight and it wouldn’t make a discernible blip in attendance. And seeing the current situation, I still believe that…
Thank you for your insight, they are always very helpful. We are heading down Thanksgiving week. Hoping for low crowds, I know it is going to be crowed, but nothing like a Thanksgiving week crowed. Have you heard if there is any word of increasing numbers before then? I check the hotel list everyday and no new hotels have been opened, or plan to open in the future.
Art of Animation and Coronado Springs both reopen between now and then. Disney hasn’t publicly announced any capacity increases, it has just been something that has happened and is observed.
I was at the parks a week in mid-late September and lines were long! Flight of Passage snaked up to Africa and was on its way back again. Second the carousel experience-posted wait time was 20min, waited more like 30. Some rides were not as bad. Dumbo rarely had a wait. Food lines were ridiculously long. Gaston’s tavern backed up past enchanted tales with Belle. They need some chick fil a drive thru workers to move things along!
YES! Those CFA folks really know how to cycle lines. And still make the best fast food out there.
As watching from afar, this is fascinating. The microcosm of how WDW is handling everything has been very interesting to see. Can’t wait to get back. Thanks for providing these updates. Been reading your blog from the old trip report days, to hurricanes, and now all of this year and always enjoy the insight provided.
Agreed that it’s interesting to watch all of this play out. Hope you’re able to get back sooner rather than later, and thanks for reading!