Disneyland Unlikely to Reopen Before Summer 2021 Under New California Rules
In this afternoon’s weekly public health report and update on California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening progress, Dr. Mark Ghaly released theme park guidelines. In this post, we’ll share the details of these plans, why the parks are unlikely to open until Summer 2021 under these rules, and offer a recap of what’s happening in the last week in the ongoing saga of Disney v. California.
We aren’t going to detail the whole dispute here, just what has happened since Governor Newsom indicated that California would send a team to other states to inspect their health & safety measures. Disneyland’s Wild Reopening Ride is worth the read if you want the full backstory of the drama. We’ve also offered best & worst case predictions for dates in When Will Disneyland Reopen?
Only yesterday, Governor Newsom said he remains “stubborn on a health-first data-driven process that is done with our eyes widen open [to] avoid any further increase in transmissions.” These have become common refrains from Newsom, who has also repeatedly said the theme park guidelines are coming “very soon” for the last two months…
Before that, California sent its “strike team” to Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando last week to inspect those operations. In a statement to the OC Register, California Health and Human Services spokesperson Kate Folmar stated that California health officials visited the theme parks two weeks ago, independently of operators, to assess the health safeguards in practice.
So not really a strike team, but a surprise raid sounds more exciting than a bunch of experts meticulously analyzing and inspecting operations.
Then, over the weekend there was the “Open Disneyland” rally in Anaheim outside the main entrance on Harbor Boulevard. This drew a crowd of about 20 people and, judging by the coverage we saw on the Los Angeles news, consisted mostly of hardcore fans.
Frankly, this probably did more harm than good for the reopening “cause.” I’m not sure why so many adult Disney fans are hellbent on reinforcing the negative stereotypes about us, but stuff like this does not help. Perception and messaging matters, and there are bad ways of expressing valid viewpoints.
Fortunately, business leaders and local unions have also continued to opine on the topic, making clear that the ongoing closure has sweeping economic ramifications for Southern California. Yesterday, the Coalition of Resort Labor Unions sent a letter to Governor Newsom, asserting that “a path exists where Disneyland would be able to open safely when Orange County moves into the Orange tier.”
This is significant because previously this same coalition criticized Disneyland over the summer and indicated that the unions were then not convinced that it was safe to reopen the parks on Disney’s timetable. According to the union coalition’s letter, “since then, Disney has taken safety measures we advocated, and engaged with their workers representatives, [and] our original position has changed. The company has provided detail on serious measures to protect workers via social distancing, providing PPE, addressing ventilation, and more. Most recently, the company unveiled a testing program, something we highlighted in our last letter to you.”
The letter was signed by leaders from 7 unions representing Disneyland Resort Cast Members: Workers United Local 50, Unite Here Local 11, International Union Local 83, Independent Employee Service Association, United Food and Commercial Workers Local 324, American Federation of Musicians Local 7, and International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees Local 504.
In addition to endorsing Disneyland’s reopening plan, the union leaders urged California’s task force to meet with representatives of the resort workers as part of the process. They contended that the effectiveness of public health agencies would benefit from coordination with worker representatives that have practical knowledge and expertise regarding the challenges of addressing exposure risks.
While the parties have met in the middle and Disney has addressed some of the unions legitimate concerns, part of the about-face by the unions is undoubtedly due to the layoffs of 28,000 Disney Cast Members in California and Florida. Keep in mind that there are plenty more indirect job losses; Anaheim has hundreds of hotels, restaurants, and other businesses that are dependent upon travel and tourism.
While we’ve been critical of Disney’s antagonistic tone towards California in the last few months, the layoffs have no doubt been exacerbated by Disneyland’s ongoing closure. (Again, messaging matters…and we can’t help but wonder whether some of this standoff could’ve been avoided had Disney attempted to diffuse tensions rather than escalate them.)
Just yesterday, over 1,300 additional Disneyland attractions Cast Members were laid off, including in Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Thus far, Disneyland accounts for nearly 30% of the layoffs. That number might seem low, but there are a couple of things to consider.
First, Disneyland employs far fewer of the domestic theme park Cast Members than Walt Disney World. Second, once Disneyland is back up and running, it will be better poised for success than Walt Disney World, thanks to its comparative lack of hotels and local visitor demographics. In reality, the layoffs are disproportionately impacting the California parks at this point.
During today’s weekly public health press conference, California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly unveiled the state’s reopening guidelines for theme parks. During this, he offered guidance for both theme parks and live professional sporting events at outdoor stadiums.
Dr. Ghaly discussed the observations from the tours of theme parks in Florida, including many practices that were reassuring along with others that were “random.”
During this, Dr. Ghaly identified some of the potential problem points with theme parks, including some factors that made them higher risk settings than outdoor stadiums. We aren’t going to rehash all of that–you can read the above slide from the presentation.
The bottom-line concern is that theme parks present a greater likelihood of outbreaks in California, particularly among a wider geographic base of visitors. (That was emphasized repeatedly during the presentation.)
Consequently, the long-awaited release of the theme park reopening guidelines are exactly what was leaked a few weeks ago that both Disney and Universal implored California to reconsider.
These are definitely not what those companies, local politicians, unions, or other businesses had in mind when urging California to release theme park reopening guidelines.
Here are the specifics of the theme park reopening rules…
Moderate (orange):
- Smaller parks can open with modifications
- Capacity must be limited to 25% or 500 people, whichever is less
- Outdoor attractions only can open
- Reservations required
- Local attendees only (from the same county as the park’s location)
Minimal (yellow):
- Larger parks can open with modifications
- Park capacity must be limited to 25%
- Reservations required
Here’s additional guidance for California theme parks and amusement parks.
This guidance includes additional considerations for:
- Admission, entry, and security
- All rides and attractions
- Dining and concessions
- Performances, interactive exhibits, and events
- Uniform, costume, and wardrobe protocols
All of this means that Disneyland, Disney California Adventure, Knott’s Berry Farm, and Universal Studios Hollywood cannot open until their respective counties (Orange and Los Angeles) hit the yellow or minimal tier. As we’ve said previously, that’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Realistically, this means Disneyland and DCA almost certainly won’t reopen until 2021.
More on the why of that as we cover California’s tier system and where Orange County presently stands…
Theme park reopening guidelines are relatively meaningless in isolation–what matters is how they square with California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening plan and (in the case of Disneyland) Orange County’s status within those tiers. Right now, things aren’t looking so great.
Orange County is still in the red or widespread tier, which is where it has been since being upgraded after Labor Day. (No progress in over a month.) At that point, Orange County was trending in the right direction, really close to the orange or substantial tier. Since then, the county’s numbers have essentially plateaued, and the introduction of the “health equity” metric actually put Orange County further away from its goal than it was back in early September.
At this point, the earliest Orange County can enter the orange/substantial tier is November 3, 2020 based on the current requirement that a county qualify for the next tier for two weeks before moving into it. However, that is incredibly unrealistic given the recent trajectory of numbers. Orange County would essentially need to immediately improve its numbers by a significant amount. That’s not even remotely feasible.
More likely, Orange County won’t enter the orange/substantial tier until mid to late November or December 2020. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is the county not meeting that goal by then, there being a post-Thanksgiving spike, and Orange County remaining in the red tier until early 2021.
As for the yellow tier, it’s way too early to say, but January 2021 is almost certainly the best case scenario for that. Once Orange County is able to enter the orange/substantial tier, it’ll need to stay there for 3 weeks under California’s rules before even being eligible to move up to the yellow/minimal tier.
So there’s still an outside chance of Disneyland getting the green light at some point in December 2020, but that’s highly unlikely given where things stand and have gone thus far. More likely, Disneyland Resort won’t reopen until Spring 2021 under the current rules.
Even a Spring 2021 reopening for Disneyland and Disney California Adventure might be overly optimistic.
Per Dr. Clayton Chau, Director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, “it’s going to be very hard to achieve the yellow tier” due to Orange County’s size, number of universities, and interstate commerce. He thinks Orange County can look forward to yellow tier by Summer 2021 “hopefully.”
UPDATE: Disneyland Resort has released the above statement about California’s theme park reopening guidelines. Pretty unsurprising, but worth adding here nonetheless. Something tells me the Disney v. California saga is far from over.
With that said, it’s also entirely possible that California modifies or relaxes its reopening tiers between now and Spring 2021; this ultimately comes down to striking the right balance between different types of health. While California keeps stressing health and data, at some point the economic data and long-term ramifications are going to be too dire to ignore. We can’t help but think that here, messaging and perception are mattering a bit too much to California and Governor Newsom. As always, it’s a delicate balance and we’re happy to not be the ones making these tough decisions.
If you’re preparing for a Disneyland trip, check out our other planning posts, including how to save money on Disneyland tickets, our Disney packing tips, tips for booking a hotel (off-site or on-site), where to dine, and a number of other things, check out our comprehensive Disneyland Vacation Planning Guide!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What are your thoughts on California’s theme and amusement park reopening guidelines? Is this too stringent, or appropriate given the circumstances? Think this means we’ll soon get an announcement from Disney soon regarding this news? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We had a great time at Disney World yesterday! Dinner at Disney Springs was delicious! Travel to Florida and enjoy the magic!
Went to Disneyworld as well. I rode several rides. I ate. I dined indoors. Lines were short. If Disneyland is closed in 2021, I’ll return to Florida. If you don’t want to live, feel free to stay indoors. Our families are making memories. Irresponsible? Don’t give 2 *****. Disneyland really isn’t on the table, or will be so restricted this summer you’d be better off elsewhere. Make your plans sooner than later. Enjoy!
The great thing about living in a free society is that we can choose our own risk tolerance and act accordingly. If someone is immunocompromised or just has a low risk tolerance, they have every right to stay home, wear a mask, and social distance.
Likewise, people with a higher risk tolerance have the right to go out in public, not wear a mask, and not social distance. We as a society need to move beyond the concept of shaming people for having the audacity to live life as normal.
If you want to live life bunkered down and constantly wearing a mask, that’s fine. You can live life however you want, but you need to get over the concept of trying to force that mentality on everyone else.
In the current political environment, some people incorrectly regard personal liberty and science as being contradictory. They regard science as requiring people to mask up and lockdown. They view people who oppose these mask mandates and lockdowns as uneducated, misinformed rubes.
Science doesn’t mandate masks, lockdowns, or any other laws or mandates for that matter. Mask mandates and lockdowns are subjective public policy decisions. The people who back them might cite “science” as the justification for these policies, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are a subjective response to covid-19.
In fact, I can cite the sciences of psychology and economics to justify my opposition to mask mandates and lockdowns. There are even medical arguments against these mandates.
It’s possible to practice good hygiene and reduce the spread of covid-19 without restricting our liberty with mask mandates and lockdowns.
Risk is inherent in a free society. A free people assume that risk as they go about their daily lives. No more restricting our liberty under the guise of additional security. It’s time to remove the covid-19 restrictions, lockdowns, and mask mandates.
That’s not how masks work. Unless you’re wearing an N95, most masks don’t necessarily prevent you from getting sick, they prevent other people from being sick. That’s why there’s a push for everyone to wear masks. Even if you think you’re perfectly healthy, you can still catch the virus and infect others. And really, it’s a very simple thing to do to protect others. As Americans, we have to do the patriotic thing and look out for our fellow citizens.
Reopen Disneyland – I totally agree with your comment. It is unacceptable to shame people and accusing them of being “un-patriotic” and “uncaring” for “having the audacity” to have a higher risk tolerance and trying to carry on with their lives. I come from the former Soviet Union, and I know first-hand about the perils of the failing, lousy economy and moreover the oppressive and over-reaching government. Unfortunately, many others in the US do not and have no idea what it’s like, that’s probably why it seems that the US is heading that way. It makes me sad and frankly terrified sometimes as there is no other country in the world I could go to now to escape it. I pray the US does not completely fall into this trap and remains the free country I fell in love with back in the 90s when I made it my new home. Disney Parks were a big part of that, I loved them from the moment I saw them, and I hope Disneyland will not go under and reopen as some pint in not too distant future.
And your just the person to infect someone with the virus as a carrier. You tout your rights as an American citizen and by God nobody is going to tell you what you can or cannot do. Do us all a favor, get off your soapbox and stay at home.
All your points are well stated and I agree most heartedly!!!
As a California resident, my heart is breaking with this news. Not that I didn’t know it was coming, but it’s like at the end of Old Yeller…you know Travis is going to do it, but it still hurts when you hear the bang.
With Eisner pulling out of the Economic recovery board, Disney has removed what would have been a conflict of interest, so a pending lawsuit is a possibility. However, the wheels of justice move slowly, so even that wouldn’t allow the parks to open in 2021. There are a few lawsuits pending that could hold ramifications for Disney, but honestly the state’s best case scenario is for the legislature to rescind the emergency declaration. If you live in CA, please consider contacting your legislator and begging for this. It’s time.
I think Gavin Newsom, has a axe to grind with Over for leaving Newsom’s economic board. I am 70+ years and grew up on Disneyland. However, since Newsom is on a quest to destroy the state, I would think that Disneyland should consider pulling out of CA
Sad as this would be, this maybe what the folks in Sacramento need to wake up
Disneyland
“The Saddest Place on Earth”
Texas would welcome Disneyland and is a free state!
What are the rules for getting tested in California? Can anyone get tested at any time for any reason? If so, maybe the people of California should play this game with the Governor. If you’re healthy, go get tested. Get tested every single day. Force that positivity rate to go down.
Not a bad idea, use their numbers game against them. I bet you’ll get slammed about wasting valuable resources for that comment though.
Mrnico, I have a feeling you’re correct. But… it’s very important to ensure you’re negative while you’re out doing other things 😉 Heck, Disneyland could even set up a testing site near Downtown Disney, maybe between the 2 parks, and encourage all visitors to get testing “In an effort to be able to open DisneyLand sooner!”
Erik, I like that idea. If Disney paid for a 3rd party to do the testing there and made it free, that would be a good service for the community and great PR.
Anyone can get tested at this point; however, the health equity metric would still hold counties back, as is likely to be the case in OC. Because the yellow tier is so restrictive, even a few false positives would negate the results, as would double reporting, which has been a problem in our county.
This is exactly what our county put out. It isn’t about health, it’s about politics sad to say.
Actually it is not true that anyone can get tested. In my county (Sonoma) you have to answer a questionnaire (which I just tried) and unless you have certain reasons for getting a test, they will deny it. The stated reason is “limited resources”, which is understandable. I was scheduled for a 2 week vaca to Maui starting next week. But they will only let you in if you have taken a test and passed within 3 days of departure. Can’t do it, had to cancel (by-by timeshare days…).
It’s a catch 22. The state’s policy is to get positive tests down, but it is NOT easy to get tested.
Each city/County and/or medical plan may be pose different hurdles. For instance, some cities may have free drive through testing, some may not. Some medical plans, like Kaiser Permanente require a virtual dr appointment prior to get a dr recommended test, which is the only way to get one thru this medical plan. It took me 2 days to get one from my initial dr appointment, when I was sick and thought I might be covid positive (which I wasnt).
Unless it’s one of the free pop-up drive thru sites, they’re generally only testing people with symptoms. It sucks.
The upsetting thing I’ve heard of is people don’t want to get tested because businesses here in CA have trackers via people’s phones and etc if you test positive- even if you never had symptoms (which usually spread the virus or; coughs, sneezes…) Or if it’s a false positive you can get flagged and not allowed to stay in the store even with a mask. Idk how often this happens but it’s unnerving enough. People are voting for communism so it makes sense this sort of practice would take place. Also hospitals have been keeping people with very minute symptoms in for extended stays on ventilators simply to squeeze every cent they can out of insurance . Lots of people in the industry of protective gear in CA also have links to the people trying to keep restrictions in place. I’ve known people to get mixed test results, people that are positive and feel they had a cold, and people that had only symptoms of shingles and told they have it. I like the idea of getting tested to “prove” the stats. But the stat.s are already there to show most people do fine, more people die from the flu, and etc. But if you don’t want to see it then that’s All folks. Many people in CA are determined to be angry fear mongers.
We are from CA but visited WDW for a 2 week vacation last month. Wore our masks, used the sanitizers, social distanced, and had a fantastic time. If people want to visit the parks, let them visit but follow the rules Disney has put into place. Clearly, Disney has demonstrated they are managing Covid well at their other locations. The situation in CA isn’t about people visiting Disneyland to have fun. This is about destroying an economy and people’s’ livelihoods with these ridiculous and arbitrary tiers. I’ve had it with Newsome so it will be interesting to see if SoCal will still support him like they did during the last election.
This stop covid deaths at all costs is unfortunately ignoring so many other concerns such as missed cancered screenings, cancelled cancer treatments/surgeries, increased suicides, drug ODs, domestic abuse, etc. WHO says 125,000,000 people will/have moved into poverty. A survey showed that 25% of high school/college age children seriously contemplated suicide in the month of June! We absolutely need to protect those most vulnerable. Thankfully, we have a pretty good handle on those in the high risk group. In Massachusetts 66% (and rising) of our deaths are in long term care facilities. The virus is real, but as other have stated, we need to look at the entire picture. Take reasonable precautions and protect the vulnerable, but we need to start moving back to some form of normalcy.
As a point of reference . . . I live in OC as do my parents (California). My dad was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in March. He has undergone chemotherapy and radiation. He is scheduled for surgery to remove part of his pancreas on October 30. COVID and it’s restrictions have not adversely impacted his care or treatment protocol.
You’re absolutely right that these things are happening. But it isn’t necessarily *because* of COVID. If anything, COVID is bringing to light all these problems that have existed for a long time. Why are people moving into poverty? Is it because they’ve been layed off and the unemployment system is ineffective? Because companies refuse to allow certain employees work from home? Is it because all that’s available right now are part-time, retail jobs and not sustainable careers? Or is it because the middle class has been shrinking for years and more and more American citizens have been moving towards the poverty line already? Why are there so many attempted suicides? Is it because one of the symptoms of COVID is suicidal tendencies or a lack of mental health treatment access? Why are there so many cases of child abuse? Is it because COVID is making parents hurt their children or is because our Child Social Services system is too lenient? It’s time to stop blaming COVID for everything.
People have been moving out of the middle class, but at the top end more so than the bottom end.
In response to your statement that COVID has caused us to ignore things like cancer screenings and surgeries, I would just like to say that is a load of crap. I have Cystic Fibrosis, Diabetes and skin cancer and I have not missed an appointment or surgery yet with any of my doctors. I am immunosuppressed and extremely high risk, but I manage to make my appointments. If someone is missing their treatments/surgeries then that is on them. Those facilities have always been open. They were pushing back elective surgeries in the beginning, but now they are doing them. There is no reason anyone should be missing those at this point.
Many facilities are doing ‘elective’ procedures again. But for a long time my uncle couldn’t get a colonoscopy to confirm the Cologard test which indicated probable colon cancer. I’d have been furious at that. Pretty sure he could get it now. I think at this point he thinks he has it and just doesn’t want to go in and remove all doubt, which is to me not smart since there are treatments. One guy I work with at the local VA had foot surgery recently to correct an issue.
They might not be doing breast enlargements, but basic procedures should be full up and running. I just hope the people who lost invaluable treatment time due to delayed procedures are few and far between.
Amen to that!!!!! Our healthcare isnt getting better where it matters. This is making it so much worse. Many hospitals are even taking advantage by forcing people into extended stays they don’t need and to use ventilators they don’t need so they can charge more to insurance. It’s a dirty game. More people die from the flu, the domestic violence and child abuse rates are sky rocketing because going more unchecked. It’s sad.
We just spent $5000 on a week in Walt Disney World and it’s clear we are not the only Californians that were spending their money in Florida instead of California. Demand for Disney is clearly strong. I felt Disney had gone overboard with some of their policies for the reopening, but that’s ok, I understand what’s at stake for them. We did not deal our health was in any way threatened at any time… every guest entering the parks had temperature checks to enter and was rarely without a mask, even in situations where it clearly wasn’t necessary. Florida’s governor has a much better handle on taking care of his citizens and state economy that California’s Governor.
Agreed, Eric.
I live in Melbourne, Australia, where we’ve been in some form of lockdown (shelter at home) on and off since March. I wanted to share my perspective, as it might be interesting to some of you. I haven’t spent time with friends and family (in person) in months, and it has been very, very hard. I’ve been remote working the whole time, my wife has been able to continue her work in family care. There have been LOTS of job losses here. My wife’s grandfather died last week, and we couldn’t go to the funeral as it was in another state, so we watched on video stream. There are strict border controls between our state (with the most infections) and other states, so the virus hasn’t spread as widely there. BUT to us, it’s all been worth it. Through this strict approach by our state politicians, we’ve gone from numbers around 700 new infections per day at our peak. We’re now down to about 1-2 infections per day, and have lost about 800 lives in total as a state. Our state leader has had a LOT of criticism for this approach, but it’s paid off. Now that infection numbers are back under control, and our city is slowly reopening. Many Melburnians are so grateful our leaders took a strict lockdown approach, as it has struck the balance between saving lives, controlling the infection, and in the long run, our economy will recover sooner by getting the infection numbers under control and allowing greater social freedoms sooner. New Zealand took an even stricter approach than us way earlier, and they’ve had much better control of the virus and life there is basically normal! It’s very sad to see how the US, UK and Europe has handled COVID, as it’s resulted in the (preventable) deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and I think that it will take much longer for countries in that scenario to get the economy back into balance. What is strange to me is this middle-of-the-road approach: e.g., where California has opened some stuff, but not others. In Melbourne, it wasn’t until everyone was in lockdown–apart from limited essential services and critical industries, such as take-away food services and construction–that our infection and death numbers made significant decline. This meant no seeing friends and family, everyone who could working from home, and some people being out of work as a result. It was manageable because we have had large injections of money from federal and state government (not perfect, some people still fell through the cracks, but at least we have some welfare support for most). Hindsight is 20:20, as they say, but I’m grateful for the strictness. It’s been hard to endure but I’d take that any day over thousands of lives lost. I love the US, but US leadership at this time has seemed to largely put politics and the economy before lives–which will actually hurt the economy more in the long run anyway. It’s such a shame. Sending love to you all and hoping you stay safe.
Thanks for sharing your perspective–it is definitely interesting to hear how other countries have handled this!
I think part of the problem in comparing America to literally anywhere else is what gets “lost in translation,” so to speak. At one end of the spectrum, Sweden’s approach is likely unworkable because so many Americans are unhealthy and have underlying conditions (among other things). At the other end of the spectrum, the New Zealand approach likely wouldn’t work because of underlying ‘philosophy’ and uniquely American perspectives–even if all commercial businesses were closed, people still would’ve defied orders and had private gatherings.
Nevertheless, we can always learn something from other individuals, states, countries, etc.
I’m not so sure you’re assumptions about lockdowns are correct.
New York and New Jersey had very strict lockdown mandates, and posted some of the highest per capita death rates in the world. The same goes for the country of Belgium.
Also, once lockdowns are lifted, what keeps the virus from resurging? There is no herd immunity, no vaccine. All you’ve accomplished is delaying the spread throughout the community. You haven’t “defeated” it.
Further, the World Bank estimates that because of government shutdowns of work, jobs, and trade, as many as 115 million additional people worldwide will now live in extreme poverty. I hardly think these folks believe lockdowns have “saved” them, much less the economy.
Also, you seem to assume that governments can simply support their citizens for an indeterminate amount of time. Where will this money come from? Taxes? With so many locked down without work, where will these taxes come from? Who will pay them? This isn’t some fairytale where money grows on trees; it’s a real world problem.
Additionally, according to the CDC, the death rate from this virus for people between the ages of 0-19 is .03%; for people between the ages 20-49 is .2%; for people between the ages of 50-69 is .5%; and for people aged 70+ is 5.4%. Obviously, this virus inordinately affects the elderly; that is the subset we should focus on. I’m not sure full scale lockdowns of the entire population is warranted or justified.
Just my thoughts.
Michael, I see where your thinking is here, and appreciate your perspective. There’s a few assumptions being made that are helpful to look into:
1 Everyone who gets the virus and does not die will be fine
2 Short term welfare begets long term welfare
3 The virus cannot be controlled by lockdown
1 Everyone who gets the virus and does not die will be fine
Some people who get infected with COVID have long-term symptoms. There’s lots of evidence that people who get this virus and do not die can still experience very severe long term health impacts from COVID. My wife and my aunt, who caught the virus early in the year but at separate times, are both still experiencing extreme fatigue, exhaustion, and chest pain even months later after recovering. If you google “Long haul COVID” there are lots of reputable sources on this. So while it’s the elderly who are dying, many people are already being affected by these serious and ongoing symptoms, which impact their ability to work and live. It’s worth considering what might be the long-term costs of healthcare, and secondary costs to welfare, productivity, the economy, etc over time as a result of long-haul covid.
2 Short term welfare begets long term welfare
Short term welfare should help people to navigate challenging situations temporarily (for the most part). Lockdown is never going to cause all industries to cease to operate–plenty of people can still work from home, and tax will keep rolling in. Data around welfare shows that the majority of people on welfare loathe being on it, and only seek it out in desperation, as it’s an enormous knock to their sense of self-worth and independence. This is an unprecedented situation, and an effective government’s role is to support its citizens in times of dire need to create a smoothing effect on the economy.
3 The virus cannot be stopped by lockdown
I somewhat agree with you on this one! Evidence has shown in places like New Zealand that while lockdown will never completely control the virus, by getting numbers under control, it means that when the virus inevitably re-emerges in the community, resources are available to jump on outbreaks and get them back under control. This means that “heart immunity” is not needed, but we’re able to keep as many people safe and well as possible until (if?) an effective vaccine is developed. A good indication of the success of this approach is that Ireland is now adopting the same lockdown approach. I think there is a potential rationale here that this is only achievable on land masses that are islands (Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, etc), but within Australia, the state of Victoria has largely operated as an island itself, with strict border controls across two state lines to minimise spread into other states. This approach has been effective in minimising spread nationally, and could be replicated in the US. The trouble is–for each day a city puts off going into lockdown, it adds an extra week or so to how long the city needs to be in lockdown to actually suppress the virus. So it may be that the US is just too far gone in terms of number of infections by this point for this kind of approach to be effective. But to me, how many lives will it take for a nation to say “enough is enough”?
I had a look at the data around Belgium that you mentioned, and you’re indeed correct: they do report a higher number of deaths per capita. But they report COVID deaths differently in Belgium than the US. It’s worth a google as it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. The BBC has a good article that goes into the details.
Your New York / New Jersey data makes sense. It’s basically the same as here: we had the highest rate of infections, so we had strict lockdowns, and while the numbers were coming down, we experienced a lot of deaths. Lockdown doesn’t prevent deaths in the short-term; it prevents deaths in the long-term. Texas has experienced a similarly high death rate (in the top 5 with NY / NJ), but I’m not sure if they had the same level of lockdown. So much data, and a lot to navigate!
Anyway, I think your heart is certainly in the right place: you want to see the economy stabilise, save jobs and livelihoods. I do too. I just question whether reopening will actually achieve that in the long term. From what we’ve seen in different parts of the world, reopening prematurely will lead to longer lockdowns eventually, and will see more people get sick and more people die, all of which will ultimately hurt the economy more. Being in lockdown for 6 months has really sucked, but I think it’s a better path in the long-run. We’ll see, I suppose!
Trust me, I really want Disneyland to reopen too! I miss our magical place!
Thank you. I agree with the author about comparing countries. Sadly most US citizens do have underlying health conditions that go undiagnosed and untreated because our healthcare has severely declined over the last three decades vs many other “first world” countries. Also we have extremely biased news, we have many more people and states have been allowed to handle the ordeal separately vs as a nation. California started out with strict stay at home mandates which didn’t help much (probably because most people in lower and even middle class don’t have jobs that they can just stay at home for…). We have many more labor jobs than perhaps people realize. The stores that have been allowed to stay open (unecessarily and incorrectly adhering to measures) is ridiculous compared to the places closed down. In California there’s more opportunity for spread in a grocery store or boutique compared to Disneyland or a large zoo. Especially with limited capacity (which most the stores did not enforce as well as Zoos etc did because they don’t have the same available space and people paid enough to do so…). It makes no sense. But again back to biased media and the mass hysteria in our nation divided. I hope you all in AU take care as well. You already have most the world’s deadly wildlife there. Lol I respect the heck out of many of your knowl she and research of disabled people, especially of autism. Ahead of the USA there for sure.
Don’t want to open a political debate, but isn’t it sad how when the president started enacting travel restrictions early in March, he got nothing but disdain and resistance from everyone on the other side, with Cuomo even killing folks by sending them to nursing homes? Then, they flipped sides and tried to blame him for not doing enough early on and like CA, forcing absurd, one-sided restrictions on businesses, tanking the economy. And now that DC has flipped, they’ve reversed again, saying oh yes, we need to open things back up and acknowledge that the virus is not going away ever and we just need to learn to live with it?
So the billion dollar question is, when will CA pull their heads out and realize DL needs to reopen now? Or will Disney decide they’ve had enough and tell the state they are reopening?
We may never get that low. Having prior infection or protection from a vaccine doesn’t prevent you from being infected, rather it helps your body fight off the infection. The wording of the requirements are not necessarily attainable even with a vaccine.
Unfortunately I think most of the people that think opening a theme park is frivolous or unsafe and not worth the risk right now, are people who are managing to survive this lockdown fairly comfortably. The parks being closed are an inconvenience, but aren’t affecting their ability to pay rent or feed their families. Not everyone can stay home and wait for a cure that may or may not come. Disney cast members are not usually independently wealthy, they work because they have to. Some may still say that the (very small) risk of death isn’t worth going back to work until the virus is gone, and if you are working from home and living comfortably, then I’m sure you see no need for something like a vacation spot to open, but for those who aren’t living comfortably, there is so much more to consider than a virus. And Newsom has got some serious control issues. If he’s going to refuse to let people earn a living, seems like he should pay their wages and health care until he’s ready to be reasonable. Lots of non essential places are open. Let Disney open with safety measures!
Totally agree. I think a lot of people (not everyone) who say “everyone should stay home for as long as it takes to put this behind us” lack self-awareness and/or are naive.
There was never a time anywhere when everyone stayed home during this. If someone has stayed home for however many months, it’s because many other people assumed that risk and went to work to make sure their Amazon, DoorDash, Wal-Mart, Target, etc. deliveries went out, food was processed, supply chains didn’t come to a halt, and society continued moving. Of course, the common refrain in response to that is that theme parks (or whatever) are “nonessential.” But jobs are essential–and unless the entire time you’ve stayed at home you’ve subsisted on your farm, haven’t consumed any form of entertainment, etc., you don’t really own the moral high ground about what “everyone else” should be doing.
Well said Nicki. Neither you nor Tom could have said it better!! Thank you!!
If everyone stayed home until the virus is gone, then most of us would have starved to death by now. Only those with a years supply of food and water would still be alive. Most of those who can work from home can only do so now because of the internet. 25 years ago, they would have had to go in “to work”.
I’m not trying to be a smart aleck, but since when did human life become some invaluable in the USA? The carrying on “if we lose one life, it’s too many” feels political because we are often insensitive to suffering and loss of life in this country. We have become more and more so over the years.
I think California’s response is WAY over the top: and not because I don’t care about life. But we know who is vulnerable, we know what to do (or not do) and we know the majority of people who get Covid do NOT die from it. Yes, there are exceptions, as there are with the flu or when you get in your car and drive down the interstate everyday. Life carries with it risk, because we all die eventually.
I think Disney is 100% right to be miffed. If I were them, I’d think about selling off Disneyland or…something. I don’t think it’s fair that Florida employees should lose jobs because of the California governor’s decisions. And I don’t think it’s fair that ONE PERSON should have so much power that he may affect the Disney experience for hundreds of thousands of people for years to come.
The one person making decisions was elected by a majority of millions. These questions are not easy to answer. California is doing very well with COVID numbers compared to the much of the rest of the country. My spouse works in a busy hospital in LA County and monitors ICU numbers and beds. If things get out of control in LA, it could be a big problem for everyone. It is a tough situation all around.
That being the case, Californians are getting what they wanted. And they have that right. Not sure where that leaves Disney or other businesses, but they have choices, too.
I understand that Disneyland’s reopening is inextricably intertwined with politics, but please try to keep your comments respectful. Anything with personal attacks or insults (whether to other readers or even politicians), meaningless buzzwords, or that’s intentionally antagonistic will be deleted.
I don’t really care which “side” of this you’re on–just present your perspective in a way that is not unnecessarily charged or inflammatory.
Here’s the dilemma. If they open the parks to thousands, then they have to open everything else. For example schools and restaurants.
Schools and restaurants (including indoor dining) have been open in Orange County since September.
Actually my sister lives in orange and today was her kids first day in person and they are only going 2 days a week.
I live in Orange County and not all schools are open and if they are (at least public schools) it’s very modified. Shorten/limited days etc.
Not all districts or schools have opened in OC. Restaurants are open at reduced capacity with strict limits, and indoor dining is not very popular.
Honestly with that criteria, I think we’re looking at at least 2022. I would imagine Disney and the others will take this to court.
I’ve been a big supporter and admirer of WDWs reopening efforts, and have lauded their independent choices to keep strict rules despite the FL governor. This article made me think a little more about the situation. I’m in NYC, and yes, it was a horrific hell here during the peak of the outbreak. And since then, months ago obviously, reopening rules have been strict. Fatigue is real. And hypothetically, if there was a Disneyland here or near here, if someone told me it was reopening, I would be astounded and angered–Even with all I know and love about how Disney has reopened! We’ve come so far and worked so hard to get this better, and we still have issues with large gatherings and spikes in nearby communities. There’s a contact tracing program that is improving, and that’s really a key component to getting numbers down.
So, I don’t know anymore…It’s a tough call for everyone involved.
“…we still have issues with large gatherings and spikes in nearby communities.”
We saw the same in our neighborhood early in the summer when most things were closed. Perhaps not coincidentally (or maybe it was), but once restaurants, theme parks, etc. opened up, we noticed less of these gatherings.
My perspective is undoubtedly colored by that, but in general I’m an advocate for harm reduction and risk mitigation. Which is to say that humans are going to socialize regardless, and more so as fatigue to all of this sets in. Given those practical realities, I’d rather people be socializing in less harmful ways–like at places with strict safety protocol in place. It’s not perfect, but nothing is.
Thank you Tom. I always appreciate the way you share information.
The yellow tier (as it currently stands) will most likely not be attainable by Orange County until there is a vaccine. This is devastating for Anaheim. There is no reason theme parks should be treated differently than your local grocery store. I think Disney is getting ready to sue. Meanwhile, us Californians will continue to fly to Florida, go to WDW, and come back home because that is much safer than opening Disneyland. There is no “science and data” to support these new guidelines. Who stepped on Newsom’s Mickey bar when he was a kid?
That would actually be really interesting to know how many Californians have gone or plan to go to Disney World while Disneyland is still closed!
It’s high. It’s very, very high.
What a horrible situation. This is a bit “tongue and cheek” but it may be time to for Disney executives to talk to Texas to see if they, or another state has 10,000 acres or more available for a new Disneyland. Then they can start moving their Disneyland rides to a new location with less political hassle and room to grow.
As a Texas resident I second the Texas idea!!! At one point it was rumored that Disney purchased/owns land here but I believe that was determined to be false. Still have my fingers crossed though!
Yes, Texas actually has worse numbers than California does. Yet Texas leadership understands that life must go on. California’s leadership doesn’t.
What would happen if Disney just opened without the state’s approval? If they won’t do that, they should just open for shopping, eating and fireworks during Christmas. Charge an entry fee and have it be a donation to CHOC or Make-A-Wish.
I don’t think Disney would just defy the state and open, but I do think this ends up in court. (Not necessarily with Disney as a plaintiff, but maybe.)
Given the amount of Christmas merchandise already ordered, I think Disneyland doing a holiday shopping/dining event at DCA is also possible or likely.