Explaining Increased Disney World Crowds
Upon returning from spending a couple of weeks at Walt Disney World earlier this year, I wrote an article titled, “Is There No Such Thing as an Off-Season?” In that, I speculated that wait times had increased by about 25% at the beginning of the year, and offered a number of explanations, with the mains one being the global economy, improved consumer confidence, and Disney’s manipulation of crowds.
Magic Kingdom waits hovered around 20% higher year-over-year in January and February, were ~15% higher in March, and have leveled out since. These wait times are fascinating for a number of reasons, but most interesting (for the purposes of this post, at least) is that the spikes in crowds from the beginning of the year has been “corrected.” With only four full months of the year in the books it’s probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but I think it is interesting to consider the why.
There was an abnormal spike in crowds at the beginning of the year, at a time when 95% of major school districts in the United States were in session. Crowd levels averaged around a 7/10, which was higher than the entirety of the summer season (Memorial Day to Labor Day) with posted wait times that were around 25% inflated year-over-year. Most fascinating is that the biggest abnormalities in crowds were occurring on weekdays rather than weekends.
A couple of explanations for this are the improving economy, consumer confidence resulting from the tax cut, and Disney manipulating capacity. One thing Walt Disney World can do is decrease operational hourly ride, to a level significantly lower than normal.
Side note: we’ve explained this before, but many Walt Disney World attractions have a huge difference between theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC), which is how many guests could be cycled through assuming 100% efficiency, and operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC), which is the “real world” number a ride can expect to achieve thanks to humans being human, and all of that.
THRC is like a magical rock troll: not something that exists in reality. Nothing operates at 100% efficiency, as guests can unload slowly, pauses have to be made for accessibility reasons, etc. Another reason that OHRC is often lower is because Disney manipulates it. In the past this has occurred for maintenance or because capacity was under-utilized. In the last couple of years, there have been reports of Disney manipulating OHRC to save operational costs–less wear and tear on attractions and less staffing.
Len Testa of TouringPlans.com appeared on the DIS Unplugged Podcast to discuss Disney’s manipulation of crowds. The main explanation Len offers for Disney’s manipulation of capacity is a mandate for Parks & Resorts to decrease operating expenses. This makes complete sense, and is wholly consistent with what we’ve observed from Parks & Resorts for the past few years.
Walt Disney World has seen high capex numbers over the past few years, and there is no end in sight to the ballooning capex numbers between now and 2021. One way to help “offset” that to improve the appearance of Parks & Resort’s financials has been to create new revenue streams. Another has been to decrease opex.
Additionally, Josh over at easyWDW.com has done a series of posts comparing crowds this year versus last, culminating in his recent look at wait times around Magic Kingdom. Both of them reached the same conclusion (and more than an anecdotal one) about the uptick in crowds earlier this year.
This isn’t just a theory–Disney has stated as much in financial calls with investors. Disney getting over-zealous with off-season cost-savings by decreasing OHRC too much would not surprise me in the least. It wouldn’t be the first time Walt Disney World tried to cut too much fat and ended up hitting bone.
I respectfully disagree with Len’s theory that the manipulation of wait times at the beginning of the year is a scheme by Disney to justify the upcoming multi-day tiered price change (let’s be real–it’s going to be an increase, not just a “change,” for every season except value). This seems like a stretch, and to Len’s credit, he does call it tin foil territory.
Personally, I don’t think Disney needs a good (public-facing) reason to justify price increases…or any reason at all. So long as their internal financial projections justify it, they’ve got sufficient rationale (from their perspective). Guests will project their own explanations onto these increases, and an explicit rationale from Disney probably isn’t going to move the needle on the guest perception.
Most people who form strong opinions about price increases are going to be at far ends of a spectrum: super fans who will fall over themselves to offer a favorable explanation as to why they should pay more, or cynics who liken Disney to a money-grubbing tourist trap and will assume the worst. Everyone else is somewhere in the large middle ground of “indifference” (at least until they book a trip and have sticker shock).
Look back at this Orlando Sentinel article from several years ago that compiled statements from Universal and Disney justifying their price increases. I would (like to) think that most consumers would see through these statements as PR fluff. Likewise, I’d like to think the same of whatever rationale Disney proffers for this year’s and next year’s increases.
As with most PR fluff, I think justifications for price increases are likely to be forgotten by most consumers within a few days after the price increase announcement. Only the zealots are going to remember a statement about the goal of reducing crowding, and I’m guessing those people are going to visit no matter what. Given that, it seems like quite the elaborate ruse to cause an artificial spike in crowds for the sake of justifying a price increase.
Moreover, if comments on general news sources are any indication, most readers already assume Walt Disney World is crowded and unpleasant. Not only is it an elaborate ruse, it’s a detrimental one. Crowds no doubt impact guest satisfaction surveys, ratings given on sites like TripAdvisor, and long-term perceptions…which are reflected in things like reader comments.
So where does that leave us as to why it felt so busy at Walt Disney World early this year in what was traditionally an off-season time? Here, we can accept the conclusion that attractions were being operated at less than full capacity without accepting the premise that this was to artificially increase crowding. And we do.
There are a few reasons that this reduction of capacity could have occurred. First, there’s the cost-savings angle; operating attractions at lower capacity would require less staff and less maintenance, both of which would save the company money. This is an explanation that we also most definitely accept.
Second, after our ‘Is There an Off-Season?’ post, we heard from a couple of Cast Members working in the parks that internal attendance forecasts (that are used to determine staffing, among other things) were off, sometimes by nearly 10,000 guests per day.
I can’t even begin to explain why this would have occurred, but it could be that internal forecasts were intentionally lowballed by management because those numbers are what drives ride vehicle deployment and staffing levels at attractions. That’s a wild guess.
It could as simple as Disney being caught flat-footed. I think this is likely closer to the reality of what happened, and Disney whiffing on attendance projections compounded what otherwise might have been perceived as “reasonable” opex cuts to make for a situation that felt very crowded.
Finally, there’s the possibility that Walt Disney World was (or is) simply understaffed and they allocated staffing resources to weekends. In our Disney World Union Wage Negotiations post, we mention that there are 3,500+ unfilled positions at Walt Disney World, and aggressive sign-up bonuses are being offered in an attempt to fill them. Being short-staffed on the attractions side could cause a decrease in OHRC, which would explain a lot of this.
This is all interesting if you’re a Disney geek trying to explain why a time of year that has been consistently uncrowded was suddenly busy, but doesn’t really help if you’re planning a Walt Disney World vacation and wondering to what degree you can rely on crowd calendars.
The good news here is that since January and February, wait time numbers and crowd reports have more or less returned to normal. It would seem that normal and peak season crowds are far less likely to see such spikes, so if you’re traveling during a time of year that was not previously a ‘dead’ time of year, you will not see a comparable (percentage-wise) increase in wait times.
The bad news is that without having a clear picture on the why of the January and February spike, we cannot say with certainty whether other consistently uncrowded times of year like late August, September, and mid-November will see similar spikes. If this is simply a matter of Walt Disney World manipulating crowds to save on opex during times of year that are consistently uncrowded, those would be obvious targets. (Although I would hope and expect Disney to use a defter touch with future manipulations.) If other variables played a significant role in the early 2018 crowds, perhaps we won’t see comparable spikes in the fall. Unfortunately, without a definitive explanation as to why crowds spiked before, we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.
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Your Thoughts
Have you noticed a more pronounced uptick in crowds recently? Do you have any theories as to why this is occurring? Do you agree or disagree with our take? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
After 25 years of Disney World, this last trip (December 3-5) was the worst. We couldn’t even use our Peter Pan FastPasses because the line was 30 minutes LONGER than the time left on our passes! It stretched to Mickey’s Philharmonic. And a 45 minute wait for the People Mover?? I get that it’s more affordable for families to visit now, and everyone should visit Disney World once in their lives. But I’m thinking the only profit Disney will see going forward is from first time visitors. I’d keep going even if I could only go on the Carousel of Progress and get a Dole Whip, but the crowds are unbearable. So is the occasional shoving by visitors who are becoming increasingly competitive in lines for rides, food, and even bathrooms. The idea of going to Disney World has become much bigger than the parks themselves. They could raise prices by 500% or they could make the parks bigger, but something’s gotta give. It just wasn’t magical.
Pretty much the same thing for us 12/13/19 through 12/16/19. Ridiculous crowds pretty much killed any potential magic. I don’t remember it being like that on previous visits in ’98, ’95, ’82, ’76. Can’t justify ever going back if that’s what it’s like now.
We went in February of 2019. We tried to fast passes but no one told us that we had to do it in advance. I’m talking weeks in advance. We were only able to do 5 rides with fast pass. We were there for 4 days. Every time we tried to sign up for fast pass it was full. So without fast pass we literally waited in line for 4 hours or more. We waited for 4 hours to ride Space Mountain. We waited for 4 and a half hours for Pandora. We only got to ride things once. I remember when I was a child back in the 80’s my brother and I rode Space Mountain 5 times in a row. Its not like that anymore ! Its a frickin nightmare !! A lady shoved my Dad at a restaurant in Fantasy land. People were annoyed and irritated because everywhere you went there were crowds. I mean everywhere. You can’t get away from them. Don’t go to Disney World if you are claustrophobic. There were so many things I wanted to ride and i just didn’t get to because the lines were too long. When I was a kid, my brother and I would ride the rides during a parade because the lines were non existent. Not anymore ! There are too many people at the parades and too many people in line for the rides. It was horrible. Its not worth the money. And yet ….. I want to go back !
The Magic Kingdom has always been crowded and has always been this way. They opened with a capacity for a 100,00 people and that hasn’t changed. When I went as a kid in the 70’s it was on days that you could barely move. The next year we’d try it at a “slower” time of the year and one day it would be way overcrowded and then try it the next day it was fine. So many things affect the actual numbers. Bottom line: Disney is a place where there will always be huge, annoying crowds. We just didn’t notice it as much as kids and no matter how long the wait or how hot we ALWAYS wanted to go back – just as long as we knew we could experience the same magical experiences as the last time. And that’s where Disney is fucking up – they are forever changing everything and it sucks.
Been there five times with family since 2015. Just got back last week from
Last trip. Have gone from staying a week the first time to only tolerating it one day for after hours tix at Magic Kingdom. Even my 9 yr old can’t handle crowds and wait items anymore. Thankfully, I think we’re done with WDW and Florida. Did SeaWorld for a day and that was even worse wait times.
The biggest change in WDW operations is the ability to use RFID data, like MBs. $2bil invested for efficiency, but the big payoff is gaining billions of data points to track consumer groups and assess psychological strategy to maximize spending potential.
WDW can now tweek costs specifically toward those ‘not spending enough’. AP prices going up like crazy? That group’s not paying their share. January guest only spending $100/day? Bring down opex to meet that. Guests staying off-site pay in-park food prices or give up paid park hours. Try to save money & they’re right on it to even it out.
You can go a cheaper time of year but possibly not lower crowds (buy DAH/EMH for that pleasure). It’s the data age of payoff or sacrifice for our Disney spending choices.
I suggest a boycott to show the corporate entity which has no feelings at all for the patron (unlike walt seemed to have) that we are tired of thier nonsense with outrageous prices and over crowding. Its the only real way to fix disneys crowd and orice problem.
What we consider a ‘price problem’ is likely their way of fixing crowds 🙂
I won’t be going back to Disneyland or Disneyworld. So sad, but not fun anymore!! I took my grandkids end of February this year. Horrible ! Over hour wait times, I totally want the fast pass GONE !!! Bad idea! Hire more help ! We went to Universal Studios for 5 days second half of our trip, wonderful time. That will be our go to theme park from now on. Hopefully they won’t make same mistake as Disney. Poor Walt must be turning over in his grave !!! Less magical, less family oriented. So sad !!!!!!
I really don’t know why the spike/increase in crowd levels….and apparently neither do you. I used to go to WDW during the first 2 weeks of Dec….. but now it’s far too busy for me. Then I started going in February – again last Feb it was so busy I couldn’t even get any good fastpasses by noon. I also went in September 2018, busy but doable. The weather was extremely hot and humid – not very comfortable. This year I will try in November and see what it brings. But to be honest – as a true die-hard WDW fan – this will be my last go – I won’t spend my money to stand in line and wait to get on my fav rides. By the way – last time I went to Hollywood Studios – there were several rides closed – making the line-ups for the remaining rides intolerable. I just packed up and went home.
I absolutely agree. Used to love Disney but the overwhelming crowds, waiting in lines and the never ending mission to correctly use the fast pass system has removed the joy of going. Also, what happened to the classic Disney music? The parades and fireworks show has now become more of a rap concert. ☹ï¸
The analysis and resulting comments are so well put. Bottom Line: WDW is getting too crowded. So many variables. I joke that planning a WDW trip makes the moon landing look like a trip to a 7-11. Sadly, I have never mentioned WDW to my youngest granddaughters. Why? I don’t want them to realize the magic that once was. Although Universal can be crowded, I’ve switched my allegiance. All very sad.
I have fond memories of the three times I visited WDW in the 80s and 90s. It was a rare, dare I use the word, “magical” experience. I couldn’t wait to share that with my children. At the end of our most recent visit (a “slow” week in January), my children asked that we never return. My one son said, “Mom, I know you have fond memories of this place from when you were a child, but let’s face it, it’s not so good now.” I literally had to drag them to the parks from the pool. Here’s what they disliked: 1) the crowds, 2) the waits, 3) the “lame” rides compared to Universal, 4) how hard/time-consuming it is to meet the characters compared to Universal, 5) how annoying it is to have to crisscross the parks a dozen times to make fast pass reservations, meal reservations, or find rides with less than an hour wait. Also, though I try to overlook these kinds of things on vacation, I couldn’t help but notice how dirty the parks were on my visit. First thing in the morning, I noticed, trash, spilled popcorn, and filthy bathrooms. We are people who know most of the hacks that make WDW a more efficient experience. I shudder to think of the experience of someone who just shows up with little preparation.
We just got back last week from our Disney trip and Future World at Epcot has many areas that are dirty and falling apart. Disney spends so much time building new rides and resorts to draw even more crowds in that they seem to be overlooking regular maintenance. The entrance to Spaceship Earth is just gross. Rides kept breaking down, Epcot was horribly crowded with food and winers walking around with their drinks. Pushy, loud, drunk partiers made it impossible to walk the promenade (this was at 11:30AM on a Thursday morning). Went to Epcot twice during our 8 day stay and left by 3:00 both days. You can now only make a FastPass for one major ride. You spend much of your day walking all over the place to make your FP or that pre-reserved dining spot (months and months in advance) at one of the restaurants. I have been going almost yearly since I was a kid in the 70s but this trip hit me hard. It is not that great anymore. TOO darn crowded no matter when you go and we have tried just about every month. Cast members do not have that special Disney spark and most just seem miserable with their jobs. The magic is just gone for me and I’m actually heartbroken. I miss the old Disney. All about packing them in and the almighty $$$ now. 🙁
Reminds me of the old Yogi Berra quote regarding a very popular restaurant:
“No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.”
What Disney does not realize is that when kids have a miserable experience they will not be coming back years later when they have children, but I guess that does not mean anything to current investors. These long wait times & over crowding the parks will eventually come back to haunt them.
We are here now and it is very crowded. This is the first time I have been here where the experience Justin wasn’t pleasant or fun due to the crowds and the wait times.
It is also spring break which is another reason it’s busy along with the flower and garden show going on
heard and validated!!!
Unfortunately the damage being done now is going to have a ripple effect that is going to last a lot longer than the current uptick, especially if a recession hits.
We brought our son & our grandchildren because when our son was younger it really was a magical time.
On our last trip, after one day there with over 70-90 minute wait times, the kids begged us literally not to go back a second day. They had more fun at the pool. I think they got to ride a total of 4-5
rides in a twelve hour day there. They have no concept on the price of admission, so that had nothing to do with it. When our son went in the late eighty’s he got his picture taken with at least 6-8 characters & our grandchildren never even got a picture with one character & there were times we split into two groups. I hope they are piling up the profits cause when times change it’s gonna hurt for a long, long time. On the way out of the park that night I heard more negative comments than positive ones and that can’t be good for business.
Hi Tom, I’ve got to be honest with you – I’m not a professional researcher but from what I’ve seen, the crowds have only continued to increase (from the visits I’ve taken every few years since my childhood). My mom tells us we would go on popular rides like “It’s a Small World” 3-4 times in a row, because the wait was about 10-15 minutes. Those stories are from the late 80s/ early 90s. Not sure when you wrote this article, but our most recent trip was 2nd – 3rd week of September 2018 (when traffic was estimated at it’s LOWEST). I felt like there was barely breathing room! The wait times were long and it was more crowded than I’d ever seen!
I think that the global economy improving is a great theory. The reason I feel that way, is I saw SO many foreigners at the park. It’s now become really popular for people from Great Britain to go to Disney. Nothing against them – I met a lot of friendly English people on the trip:) Well, that’s my two cents. Thanks for letting me share!
I agree with you 100%!
I know you posted this in Jan 2019, and here it is Aug 2019 and it is still true that the parks are swarmed with Europeans!! Mostly from England! I also love the Brits but HATE the crowds they have created!!! We very carefully planned a much needed vacation and were willing to struggle through the heat because the crowd prediction said there would be lower than usual crowds thie last 2 wks of Aug. After all American schools have started! WRONG!!! 2 hour wait times + the sweltering heat!!! We have been here since Sun, today is Tues and we already want to go home! The crowd predictors are not reliable. I advise everyone to not rely on them for your trip planning! You will be horribly disappointed. I will miss WDW, and fondly remember our family trip from 2003… we will never come back
Well here is an unofficial measurement for you… one that isn’t so much about “ feels more crowded” but is actually more crowded. And a new metric for you fellows to reconsider,. We were there for about 11 days around Jan 21 this year, when crowds hit levels 8 & 9. At each park, for the first time ever in 23 years of our visiting and around 40 total trips to WDW, there were lines out the door of every, single Womens restroom! Everywhere. Every day. Not fun when you have a young child with you.
Do you feel like Disney will adjust this January and February? I see touring plans crowd calenders look pretty normal for these months in their projections.
This might be something Disney is doing if they feel they are losing days from core guests to other Orlando options. For example, if what once took me 5-days to “enjoy” now takes me 7-days ….I either give up some of the things I like or stick out the 7-days without looking at other options. Just food for thought…..
I concur with Mike. We saw many tour groups and their flags during months when they were not supposed to be there. OF course if we knew what incentives Disney was offering to South American, European and other parts of the globe; it might explain a lot about park crowds. Also many cheer leading groups well after January. But it appears there was another Cheer Leading Championship in February or March.
The last week of March when we were there it was hard to even have a conversation with people who were waiting for their children because so many were from international country’s and they did not even speak English. Our daughter -in-law commented that the same exact thing happened to her while she also was waiting for kids to get off rides so there are a lot of people traveling to Disney from all over the place.
We have noticed during the suppose to be off weeks there are a lot of internationals now at that time
I went the last week of Jan, into Feb this year, and the crowds were higher than I expected for that time of year a few days MUCH higher. However one of those was MK Sat night and the wait times were not horrible, but the park itself was very crowded and hard to get around in. I found HS much busier than I expected also, considering the ‘there is nothing there’ comments that you see on-line so much, I was surprised again, not for ToT or RRC, but to see characters or get coffee. A cast member at HS that morning said that it was much busier than they expected also, so I think that Disney had less staff to reduce costs, but they reduced them too much. I also think that the Hurricane could have impacted the attendance. People that had to cancel reasonably would have needed to wait until after the holidays to re-book everything, but didn’t want to wait a full year. That probably would have been my strategy if I had to cancel for the storm.
Of course since we are not water park or pool people, even being busier than expected, not having to handle very hot weather certainly made it nice for us, even if the crowds were higher than we hoped for.
I am going the week after labor day, and low crowd calendar predictions that week – and it is right around the time the hurricane was last year so I am again hoping that the predictions are accurate, but . . . I am still going to be at Disney and that is the best place to be regardless 🙂
One thing that you rarely read, and I mentioned to Len, is that this was a terrible flu season. Do you want your CM working when they either have the flu, or fear they do? Two of my daughters’ classmates missed months, many more missed over a week. Staff at the pediatrician’s office got it. Luckily we missed it (got our vaccines).
Anecdotally, some trips cancelled from Irma got shifted to Jan/Feb.
For many of the wait times, a little change can have a big difference. A 10-20 min wait is really just a walk-on. Reduce staffing a little and add a few thousand more guests park-wide and it becomes a 30-40 min wait.
It’s also hard to quantify the effect AK’s attendance surge had. There was a noticeable increase in attendance when we were there in early Feb.
I’d agree with Tom in disagreeing with Len about WDW inflating wait times. They’re cutting costs – they mention it in the quarterly reports! Mix in a terrible flu season and increased attendance and you’ve got a big increase in wait times!
I agree. We were there during Mardi Gras in February, when we typically go. I didn’t realize until after we returned home, that many schools west of Mobile have that entire week off. Of course Mardi Gras will be a different week in 2019. We were just suprised at the crowd difference from Feb 2017 to Feb 2018. We also reschuled a trip that was cancelled due to Irma and went in Nov 2017 instead- the week of thanksgiving and that Monday of that week, we could hardly move in MK.
The flu season idea is brilliant! I’m a nurse and our flu season was horrendous so it makes perfect sense. I can imagine Disney’s sick policy mandates that workers stay out so to not spread around sickness and make Disney a place where people report getting sick
I think that the “crowd calendars” that are all over the internet may be a factor. I went this year from Jan. 29 to Feb. 8, relying on the crowd calendars because I wanted a relaxed and “magic” vacation. My time is flexible so I wanted choose the very least crowded dates. Well, the weather was lovely. But the parks were not fun and not magical. They were packed with people. I don’t think it’s only down to ride capacities. It felt crowded in the walkways, the food lines, in finding places to watch parades, etc. I think everyone else was looking for the same uncrowded experience. Now that crowd projections are so readily available, they can lose their validity. I went to WDW years ago in February, and it was a lovely experience. I left this year feeling that I don’t ever need to go back.
Kathleen, I completely agree with you! Especially what you said about the number of people not in lines, but in walking around, etc. We have been going to WDW over the past 10 years and discuss the influence of internet planning and crowd calendars on the continued increase in crows and decrease in “off peak times” (which do not exist anymore!). I do not think it is any one reason, but the effects of all these causes pointed out in the article and comments that mean Disney World is busy year round. In my opinion, the top three reasons are 1. Internet planning/advice and Crowd Calculators, 2. Disney World planning or hosting events that now cover what used to be off peak times and 3. Disney manipulating capacity via ride capacity and Fastpass. I know this is not a popular opinion in any way, but we came to the conclusion after our most recent trip in May, that things might be better off without Fastpass, period. Lol, I dont think that could ever happen but I do like to think about what might happen with wait times balancing out and people being less stressed both planning wise and in the park (knowing/expecting a reasonable wait). Maybe then the waits and crowds could equalize for example if Space Mountain wasn’t running the entire right side/track on Fastpass only, with that Fastpass side still being a 15-20 miniute wait while the standby line is 70+ minutes–midweek in early May! Crazy.