Explaining Increased Disney World Crowds
Upon returning from spending a couple of weeks at Walt Disney World earlier this year, I wrote an article titled, “Is There No Such Thing as an Off-Season?” In that, I speculated that wait times had increased by about 25% at the beginning of the year, and offered a number of explanations, with the mains one being the global economy, improved consumer confidence, and Disney’s manipulation of crowds.
Magic Kingdom waits hovered around 20% higher year-over-year in January and February, were ~15% higher in March, and have leveled out since. These wait times are fascinating for a number of reasons, but most interesting (for the purposes of this post, at least) is that the spikes in crowds from the beginning of the year has been “corrected.” With only four full months of the year in the books it’s probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but I think it is interesting to consider the why.
There was an abnormal spike in crowds at the beginning of the year, at a time when 95% of major school districts in the United States were in session. Crowd levels averaged around a 7/10, which was higher than the entirety of the summer season (Memorial Day to Labor Day) with posted wait times that were around 25% inflated year-over-year. Most fascinating is that the biggest abnormalities in crowds were occurring on weekdays rather than weekends.
A couple of explanations for this are the improving economy, consumer confidence resulting from the tax cut, and Disney manipulating capacity. One thing Walt Disney World can do is decrease operational hourly ride, to a level significantly lower than normal.
Side note: we’ve explained this before, but many Walt Disney World attractions have a huge difference between theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC), which is how many guests could be cycled through assuming 100% efficiency, and operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC), which is the “real world” number a ride can expect to achieve thanks to humans being human, and all of that.
THRC is like a magical rock troll: not something that exists in reality. Nothing operates at 100% efficiency, as guests can unload slowly, pauses have to be made for accessibility reasons, etc. Another reason that OHRC is often lower is because Disney manipulates it. In the past this has occurred for maintenance or because capacity was under-utilized. In the last couple of years, there have been reports of Disney manipulating OHRC to save operational costs–less wear and tear on attractions and less staffing.
Len Testa of TouringPlans.com appeared on the DIS Unplugged Podcast to discuss Disney’s manipulation of crowds. The main explanation Len offers for Disney’s manipulation of capacity is a mandate for Parks & Resorts to decrease operating expenses. This makes complete sense, and is wholly consistent with what we’ve observed from Parks & Resorts for the past few years.
Walt Disney World has seen high capex numbers over the past few years, and there is no end in sight to the ballooning capex numbers between now and 2021. One way to help “offset” that to improve the appearance of Parks & Resort’s financials has been to create new revenue streams. Another has been to decrease opex.
Additionally, Josh over at easyWDW.com has done a series of posts comparing crowds this year versus last, culminating in his recent look at wait times around Magic Kingdom. Both of them reached the same conclusion (and more than an anecdotal one) about the uptick in crowds earlier this year.
This isn’t just a theory–Disney has stated as much in financial calls with investors. Disney getting over-zealous with off-season cost-savings by decreasing OHRC too much would not surprise me in the least. It wouldn’t be the first time Walt Disney World tried to cut too much fat and ended up hitting bone.
I respectfully disagree with Len’s theory that the manipulation of wait times at the beginning of the year is a scheme by Disney to justify the upcoming multi-day tiered price change (let’s be real–it’s going to be an increase, not just a “change,” for every season except value). This seems like a stretch, and to Len’s credit, he does call it tin foil territory.
Personally, I don’t think Disney needs a good (public-facing) reason to justify price increases…or any reason at all. So long as their internal financial projections justify it, they’ve got sufficient rationale (from their perspective). Guests will project their own explanations onto these increases, and an explicit rationale from Disney probably isn’t going to move the needle on the guest perception.
Most people who form strong opinions about price increases are going to be at far ends of a spectrum: super fans who will fall over themselves to offer a favorable explanation as to why they should pay more, or cynics who liken Disney to a money-grubbing tourist trap and will assume the worst. Everyone else is somewhere in the large middle ground of “indifference” (at least until they book a trip and have sticker shock).
Look back at this Orlando Sentinel article from several years ago that compiled statements from Universal and Disney justifying their price increases. I would (like to) think that most consumers would see through these statements as PR fluff. Likewise, I’d like to think the same of whatever rationale Disney proffers for this year’s and next year’s increases.
As with most PR fluff, I think justifications for price increases are likely to be forgotten by most consumers within a few days after the price increase announcement. Only the zealots are going to remember a statement about the goal of reducing crowding, and I’m guessing those people are going to visit no matter what. Given that, it seems like quite the elaborate ruse to cause an artificial spike in crowds for the sake of justifying a price increase.
Moreover, if comments on general news sources are any indication, most readers already assume Walt Disney World is crowded and unpleasant. Not only is it an elaborate ruse, it’s a detrimental one. Crowds no doubt impact guest satisfaction surveys, ratings given on sites like TripAdvisor, and long-term perceptions…which are reflected in things like reader comments.
So where does that leave us as to why it felt so busy at Walt Disney World early this year in what was traditionally an off-season time? Here, we can accept the conclusion that attractions were being operated at less than full capacity without accepting the premise that this was to artificially increase crowding. And we do.
There are a few reasons that this reduction of capacity could have occurred. First, there’s the cost-savings angle; operating attractions at lower capacity would require less staff and less maintenance, both of which would save the company money. This is an explanation that we also most definitely accept.
Second, after our ‘Is There an Off-Season?’ post, we heard from a couple of Cast Members working in the parks that internal attendance forecasts (that are used to determine staffing, among other things) were off, sometimes by nearly 10,000 guests per day.
I can’t even begin to explain why this would have occurred, but it could be that internal forecasts were intentionally lowballed by management because those numbers are what drives ride vehicle deployment and staffing levels at attractions. That’s a wild guess.
It could as simple as Disney being caught flat-footed. I think this is likely closer to the reality of what happened, and Disney whiffing on attendance projections compounded what otherwise might have been perceived as “reasonable” opex cuts to make for a situation that felt very crowded.
Finally, there’s the possibility that Walt Disney World was (or is) simply understaffed and they allocated staffing resources to weekends. In our Disney World Union Wage Negotiations post, we mention that there are 3,500+ unfilled positions at Walt Disney World, and aggressive sign-up bonuses are being offered in an attempt to fill them. Being short-staffed on the attractions side could cause a decrease in OHRC, which would explain a lot of this.
This is all interesting if you’re a Disney geek trying to explain why a time of year that has been consistently uncrowded was suddenly busy, but doesn’t really help if you’re planning a Walt Disney World vacation and wondering to what degree you can rely on crowd calendars.
The good news here is that since January and February, wait time numbers and crowd reports have more or less returned to normal. It would seem that normal and peak season crowds are far less likely to see such spikes, so if you’re traveling during a time of year that was not previously a ‘dead’ time of year, you will not see a comparable (percentage-wise) increase in wait times.
The bad news is that without having a clear picture on the why of the January and February spike, we cannot say with certainty whether other consistently uncrowded times of year like late August, September, and mid-November will see similar spikes. If this is simply a matter of Walt Disney World manipulating crowds to save on opex during times of year that are consistently uncrowded, those would be obvious targets. (Although I would hope and expect Disney to use a defter touch with future manipulations.) If other variables played a significant role in the early 2018 crowds, perhaps we won’t see comparable spikes in the fall. Unfortunately, without a definitive explanation as to why crowds spiked before, we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.
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Your Thoughts
Have you noticed a more pronounced uptick in crowds recently? Do you have any theories as to why this is occurring? Do you agree or disagree with our take? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Sell your Disney stock now. It’s just a matter of time before people quit going all together. When we took our son in the 80’s it was great when we took our grandkids a couple of years ago it was miserable to the point the kids rather went to the beach or anywhere but Disney. I personally doubt that they will ever bring their kids there in the future.
Visited Disney World last week and the lines were definitely too long to want to return. Our kids loved NASA and Gatorland and were wondering about all of the other Orlando Attractions. It really felt understaffed. We were shocked at how difficult it was to find pleasant eating. Even shopping was disappointing. For example. Epcot is an evening park and some world showcase stores were closed at 7om or not open at all. There are so many other great places to go on vacation. Disney needs to hire staff fast or limit attendance.
I went to Disney with my 12 year old daughter on February 17 for 5 days. I wasn’t expecting a relaxing vacation, but the never ending crowds, early mornings to try to get in a ride a ride or two, and the FP chaos (I hate the FP system) made this trip exhausting, rushed and claustrophobic. It’s absurd I have to plan what time I’m going to ride a ride in a particular park and make that decision 2 months in advance! Once you make those bookings, you’re vacation is locked in and there’s no deviating from the plan as to which park you’re going to be at for the day if you want to get on a couple of rides without insane lines. SOooooo many people, such lOooooong waits and I can honestly say I will never go back. I can’t imagine how anybody could enjoy themselves there! I’ve been in years past and it was lovely, but now it’s an expensive headache.
You are so Right…I have family in south Fla and visit Disney sometimes Over the years the crowds are insane.To many people its crazy.You pay to wait in line period..Its not worth the money.You can go island hoping for the same price and enjoy yourself. The crowds have ruined the experience..Disney needs a park in the center of the US to keep the 2 they have people frendily….
Hello,
Just ending our trip in Disney World, and I hate to disagree, but it’s seems like even after the President’s Day Rush, and before the Flower and Garden Festival (February 25 – March 1) there are huge swells of crowds.
Jungle Cruise and Dinosaur are a 55 minute wait.
Tower of Terror is 80 and even the Indiana Jones show was completely full.
Test Track is at 70 where as spaceship Earth is 45 minutes.
This seems insane for the time of year.
There are no single rider lines available for any of the attractions.
Correction: For accuracy’s sake, my visit was Jan 5th – Jan 8th ( not that it makes a difference in the scheme of things!)
Previously I commented on my unmagical time at Disney Feb 5th – Feb 8th. On my son’s recent visit I sent him this link and told him to apply for a job with Disney. The masses desperately need his help. Frustration is an understatement… He is an industrial engineer specializing in operations research and data science. Industrial engineering deals with the optimization of systems. And the Disney system certainly needs a miracle!
We are here on Feb 24, 2020 and it is just awful. We have been coming to Disney every 3 years for the last 15 years and I have never seen it like this — All the rides today at Hollywood Studios had waits of over 90 and all the Major rides 120 mins or more. I honestly tried to buy the VIP pass at 400 per hour after being at the park for 2.5 hours and seeing nothing. I am heartbroken that this is what Disney is turning into ( and that my children asked at the end of the day if we could just go to Universal again instead of another Disney day). I have to say that I think Disney is in trouble if this doesn’t change soon. Families will not continue to spend $7000 to fight crowds all day and get on 3 rides. I hope they figure it out– we will not be back unless things change. I note it was NOT like this 3 years ago!
Just got back from the Magic Kingdom, having visited on 2/20/20, a Thursday…
…and the crowds were like it was a weekend in summer!
– Summer-like crowds in February;
– No fast passes for any of the popular rides;
– 150-minute wait time for Big Thunder Mountain.
Look at that last one again: A 2 1/2 hour wait for a 3 minute ride!
Please tell me this is NOT the new normal.
Well, this is Presidents’ Day week (and right before a major runDisney event), which is always busy.
However, it’s also been an ongoing trend the last couple months. See this for more: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/peak-crowds-winter-off-season-disney-world/
I have been a Disney vacation club member Since 2001! As such ….. We have made numerous trips to Disney world. Five to Six years ago we started noticing an increase in crowds. However, we have seen a major uptick in crowd related foot traffic in the last 3 years. As a matter fact, it is becoming unbearable to even enjoy the Parks at any level. Magic Kingdom is a nightmare and Hollywood Studios is pure chaos!!! Why? What is feeding the dramatic increase in crowds? What I have seen is … As their has been strong growth with the Disney Vacation Club membership the concept of an “off season“ does not exist!
From my perspective, (A) The problem is vacation club members are having their friends and family use their membership package (points) which is feeding the crowds year around. (B). Plus, the attractions are expanding causing the Parks to be overBuilt feeding the problem. *** Galaxies edge being placed inside Hollywood studios is A nightmare. Because of the early morning crowds at Hollywood, The whole park fills up With high wait times starting at 7 AM in the morning. The idea of a slower morning and taking advantage of some rides no longer exist! It is uncomfortable and challenging to even move around to the parks!!! Disney has a major mess on their hands that will over time have a negative impact on the brand
I couldn’t agree with you more. I have been going to Disney for 49 years now and I understand there is growth which makes larger crowds. But my recent visit at the end of January may have just made me not ever want to go back. The crowds are horrible and doesn’t make it worth the money spent to stand in line all day. It feels like the Magic of Disney is gone and unless they make some time of drastic change with the crowds, I don’t think we will be back. I say do away with Fast Pass, that may be the problem, let everyone stand in line equally.
I totally agree with you. We have been DVC members since 2000. The past three years the parks have been so packed I hated my trips there. We just got back yesterday from a week at the parks. In a whole week, I never got to ride everything I wanted to because of the Fast Pass system and the 1 to 4 hour lines for rides. Disney needs to limit how many people are allowed in the park so those folks that do get it, can actually enjoy it. I am a big Disney Fan and just spent about $5000 there last week. I had a horrible time due to all the people clogging up the place. I also bought another Annual Pass that I regret buying now. Not sure when I will want to fight that crowd again.
We just went in mid Feb and the highlight was that we were able to ride Rise of the Resistance, but that required a TON of planning, research, watching vlogs / blogs, taking an uber in the morning, standing around with three people on their phones, app open, all to get on one ride. It was great, but after that, there was nothing else to do. The other parks all had 150+ wait times and it wasn’t supposed to be busy. I had friends go during Valentines weekend and they were so excited because they thought there would be low crowds, but I looked on the app and there were wait times of 200 minutes for some rides! I know Bob Iger gets a ton of credit for his investments, but I think the problem is that stock price and shareholder value has become the NUMBER ONE priority and the experience has become secondary. I personally don’t need to always be upsold on everything and it was obvious, especially at Galaxy’s edge, everything was about trying to sell you more stuff. Don’t get me wrong, I still love it, love the fact the food is vastly different and better than 10-years ago, but they need to either build another park, change the fastpass system to what Disneyland has, or just work hard to keep the lines under 90 minutes. When guests see 150 minute lines, I think that’s a bad look they need to desperately change.
We were in the parks, this week, on January 8, 9, and 10. This was our ninth trip to Disney World and I have NEVER seen the parks so impossible to enjoy. Why anyone would wait for 195 minutes to go on a 5 minute ride is a complete mystery to me. The Fast Passes were simply not available for any ride you really wanted. I don’t mind the cost of the park when the rides, shows, and restaurants are actually available, but the deal is this: The best we could expect is to carefully engineer your day, months in advance, if you wanted to ride a ride, see a show, or even have a meal. Even with careful planning, the best you could expect is a long day of walking, standing in lines, and dodging scooter, strollers, and screaming children. What ever happened to the Magic of Disney?
We just left Disney after spending the last three days, Jan 6 – 8, 2020 at three parks. I agree, something’s gotta give. The last time I was there in 1998!, it was simply magical, both the wonder of the attractions and watching my children’s’ reaction. This trip was anything but magical. Some of the best rides and attractions were temporarily closed, fast passes unavailable, crazy wait times and massive amounts of people including school aged children. Also with all the money they bring in, many of the rides and attractions can use an update.
I totally agree. Was there from the 5th to the 9th. Rides down temporarily, rides not running during disney bonus hours in the evening, long waits in line. Even the busing system seemed worse. Long waits…everytime we rode a bus we had to stand. Buses were slower arriving. I assumed it was a combination of understaffing and over crowding. I was last there in 2010. Its changed and not for the better .
Michele,
I sympathize, we were there Jan 5-10, 2020 and it was not the early January I remember from when our kids were small. That said, WDW always does shutdowns and refurbishments in this time period, so you have to live with some of that. Also, marathon weekend started the 8th (we did the 5K with 50,000 of our closest friends), so that adds significant numbers to an off-peak week. Hollywood Studios was more crowded than I have ever seen it – except for evenings with the Osborne Lights, but we did snag a T of T FP the day before we visited. Nowadays, my personal crowd gauge is whether or not there are dining reservations available at some of the good restaurants. In this case, there were, including a last-minute Ohana. The conclusion to my rambling is that I think Disney will continue to raise prices until they see the crowds slacking off. I’m a little surprised that it hasn’t happened yet, but the economy continues to be good, so it may be a while. When it happens, I expect to be paying even higher prices for the opportunity to visit a less crowded park.