Labor Day EPCOT Crowd Report
We continue our reporting on Walt Disney World’s Labor Day Weekend “Crowdpocalypse“ and how predictions compared to posted wait times and observed crowd levels. Today, we turn our attention to EPCOT, which was a bit of an outlier as compared to the other parks.
Let’s start with a quick recap from Part 1 of this crowd report for those who didn’t read that. For Labor Day weekend, Walt Disney World’s hotel rooms were sold out, DVC resorts being fully booked, and Park Pass reservations were filled for all parks–a first on all fronts post-reopening. Accordingly, the forecast was for significantly higher crowds than previous weekends in July and August.
That’s not how things played out. While far from being ‘ghost towns’ like some post-reopening weekdays, Walt Disney World saw only a modest increase in wait times as compared to the last four weekends. Per Thrill-Data, Saturday waits at Magic Kingdom were up 1.4%, Animal Kingdom waits were up 16.4%, and Hollywood Studios waits were down 19.4% week over week.
However, waits at EPCOT were up a whopping 29% on Saturday, with falling–but still elevated–wait times Sunday and Monday. EPCOT went from being the least-busy park on average to the busiest.
Below is a look at EPCOT posted wait time averages throughout the day on Saturday (blue line), as compared to the last four Saturdays before that:
It’s pretty well-established that EPCOT is a park to avoid on weekends during the fall. Our Guide to EPCOT’s Food & Wine Festival–written with a normal year in mind–likens weekends to frat parties and strongly recommends avoiding them.
However, this is no normal year. The annual culinary event doesn’t have its normal drawing power, there’s no College Program this semester at Walt Disney World, and fewer students on Florida’s university campuses.
To be honest, if you asked me before Labor Day weekend which park would’ve seen the biggest spike in crowds, EPCOT is not the park I would’ve picked. It hasn’t really been on my radar in terms of crowds because they’ve been so non-existent the last couple of months.
With the benefit of hindsight, all things become clearer. So of course, now it’s glaringly obvious as to why EPCOT’s crowds should’ve been expected to increase the most. Naturally.
By and large, it’s a matter of capacity utilization on an average day versus the Labor Day holiday.
On a normal day, none of Walt Disney World’s parks are hitting their current capacity caps–or even coming close to them. Of those, EPCOT is the furthest from hitting its attendance limits.
In part, this is a lack of guest demand for the current incarnation of EPCOT. It’s also due to the capacity of EPCOT being higher than the other parks. It should go without saying, but attendance caps are not uniform across all 4 parks. Disney’s Hollywood Studios has the lowest level (hence the most ‘sold out’ Park Pass days) and EPCOT has the highest.
This is mostly a result of EPCOT having the most available space (meaning you exclude things like the savanna of Kilimanjaro Safaris since guests can’t chill with the lions out there) of any park at Walt Disney World. Despite a “worthwhile” attraction count about on par with Disney’s Hollywood Studios, it’s safe to assume EPCOT’s capacity is double or more than of DHS.
On a normal day this doesn’t really make much of a difference as attendance across the parks more or less self-regulates. EPCOT is not pulling double the attendance numbers of Disney’s Hollywood Studios–far from it.
While Walt Disney World is not releasing official numbers, our guess is that EPCOT is hitting around 20-40% of its reduced capacity cap most days, whereas Disney’s Hollywood Studios is likely in the 70-80% range. Over Labor Day weekend, both parks were at 100% (even if Disney decreased these caps over the weekend, we’d assume they did so proportionately). To get there, EPCOT’s attendance would’ve increased more, meaning proportionately higher wait time increases. Pretty obvious in retrospect, but something we didn’t consider prior to the weekend.
Beyond that, many of the guests who visit EPCOT on an average day are not there for attractions.
As is often stressed, EPCOT is the local’s park. Many visitors are simply wandering around, enjoying the atmosphere of World Showcase, eating, and perusing the shops.
Labor Day weekend–or any holiday, for that matter–is different.
Right off the bat, it’s different for Walt Disney World as a whole in terms of demographics, with more tourists and fewer locals. More infrequent visitors means fewer guests who are content wandering around, and more who are prioritizing attractions. That’s true in a normal year as well as this year.
However, the unique wrinkle for 2020 is Disney Park Pass. As discussed elsewhere, this reservation system was fully booked for every single park over the Saturday and Sunday of Labor Day weekend. Unsurprisingly, the last park to book to capacity was EPCOT.
This means that a lot of tourists visited EPCOT not out of a strong desire to experience Beauty and the Beast Sing-Along or the Seas with Nemo & Friends, but for a lack of other options. On a regular holiday weekend, the other three parks don’t fill to capacity, meaning EPCOT isn’t a consolation prize that comes closer to its capacity cap.
The only time this is true is New Year’s Eve, when EPCOT does see significantly elevated wait times. That’s the reason Test Track frequently has the longest wait time of any attraction in any park on New Year’s Eve. However, EPCOT has a strong reputation as the NYE park for locals, so even that is not a perfect comparison.
At least, that’s my theory for why EPCOT saw such a larger spike in wait times than the other parks over Labor Day weekend. The TL;DR version of that is that it’s attendance had the most room to grow on a sold out day since it was previously the Walt Disney World park furthest from utilizing its full capacity, plus a difference in demographics skewing towards guests who are more interested in attractions.
We visited EPCOT on Labor Day itself, and found wait times to be significantly higher than anything we had observed since July. In some cases, over double the norm. Crowds and congestion were also heavier, but not to the degree we would’ve expected given wait times.
To the contrary, a typical weekend last year during Food & Wine would’ve felt more uncomfortable in World Showcase, but would’ve reflected lower wait times. Hence the commentary above.
When the dust settled on the holiday weekend, attendance levels returned to normal, and (most significantly) the other parks were no longer ‘sold out’ of Park Pass reservations, wait times at EPCOT plummeted. Above is a graph of average waits on Labor Day (red line) as compared the following day (blue line). A drop of 59%, which was by far the largest of any park at Walt Disney World.
This is all significant because, if our theorizing is correct, the same type of scenario is going to play out every holiday travel period, or any time Disney Park Pass reservations are unavailable at the other three parks. (From all three buckets–the AP bucket alone is almost irrelevant when it comes to crowds–at least for now.)
The big takeaway is that EPCOT is the worst park to visit on busy days during this stretch while Disney Park Pass is being utilized. With the lowest crowds on (temporary ab)normal days right now, it has the most room to grow when crowds increase. (So visit EPCOT on a less-crowded weekday if at all possible.) Conversely, Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the best to visit for the exact opposite reason. Since it’s the park regularly coming closest to its reduced capacity cap, it has the lowest ceiling on crowd growth. Magic Kingdom is second-best, and Animal Kingdom is second-worst, although there’s less of a gap between those as compared to the extremes of EPCOT and Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit EPCOT this weekend? What did you think of the crowds? How did EPCOT compare to your experience at the other Walt Disney World parks? If you’ve visited on a past Food & Wine weekend, how did crowds compare to that? How did wait times compare? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We were at Epcot Thursday evening and Saturday. The booth lines on Saturday got longer as the day went on, unfortunately. Out of the few attractions at Epcot, we did LWTL and Soarin’ with small waits. Spaceship Earth was a bit of a wait for their spectacle of cleaning, but glad to ride it again before the upcoming ridiculously-long refurb (if it still occurs). And once again the SPAM Hash reigns supreme over the festival. The citrus chicken, ribeye taco and pork tostada were are excellent. The filet from Canada booth was disappointing, tough meat this time. But the option for adult-sized beers was a nice improvement, as well as getting to buy the EF&GF merchandise at 30% off plus the 20% AP discount, for around a total 44% off.
MK on Monday seemed crowded at times in certain places, but we literally almost walked right up to load at Space without stopping. Maybe 5 minutes total.
After being there for the 6 days, I will say unequivocally that wearing face masks isn’t that much fun. In outdoor queues with physical spacing it doesn’t even make any sense, especially when there are fans blowing air (and mucus/virus sputum) downwards away from your face.
I used the Rokinon/Samyang 12mm and 8mm exclusively the whole time, but haven’t made time to go through them yet.
I’m curious what you think crowds will be like during the famed “Jersey Week”. My TA said I’m her only client booked that week but she only has access to her own bookings of course. We’ll be there Oct 30-Nov 6th, taking advantage of our kids being off Election Day, and the 5th/6th. We currently have Epcot scheduled for Monday of that week.
I really wish they’d bring back the Park Hopper and combine it with the reservation system to do same day or even previous day reservations.
We will be at WDW from Sept 17-24. I just went to check park pass availability for EPCOT for Sunday, the 20th, because that’s our one day there. It looks to be okay. Resort guests and ticket holders have open choices that day. Only APs are a problem…EPCOT is their only choice. I think (hopefully) that will still make it okay for us. My greater concern is Saturday the 19th. We have Animal Kingdom passes that day and they are all gone…from all three buckets. I can’t figure out why. I can’t imagine that they would be doing anything “special” right now. If you look at crowd predictor calendars around the internet they warn of high crowds at MK and DHS, with moderate at EPCOT. AK is green. Any ideas? I’m thinking of switching our Friday MK reservation to Saturday and moving AK to Friday (the 18th). Is it possible the calendars are “broken”? I don’t want to make the switch without being sure because it looks like we can’t get back into AK. We do have another AK day on the 24th, so it’s not end of the world if it’s semi-crowded on Saturday, but it also seems like there’s no point in dealing with a lot of people if we don’t have to. I appreciate anyone’s insight.
Same! I was considering moving my reservations on Saturday 9/19 to a different park and I was really shocked to see no availability for resort guests anywhere. I checked this past Friday and there seemed to be plenty of availability for resort guests. That is the first Saturday where they’ll be Fall decorations up and I figured that might impact MK but not all the parks. I’m totally baffled and considering doing a resort day that day instead of heading to a park. Any insight would be appreciated!
We are heading down to Disney November 24th. I know the Covid numbers are going down in Florida, but still high compared our state. Also I understand Bars are opening up this weekend in Orlando. Do you see Disney raising their attendance numbers during the Thanksgiving week, or do you think they are still be cautious? Thank you
We saw you and Sarah walking through World Showcase on Labor Day evening. I didn’t want to bother you, but thanks so much for the planning tips and a set of realistic expectations for the trip. We found listed wait times to be exaggerated. Our longest wait was 40 min for Frozen with a posted wait of 65 min. All other waits were walk on to 15 min, including Test Track. We were easily able to get everything done, albeit we had to save The Grand Fiesta boat ride for the end of the day due to the inability to get in Mexico. I was also thinking the crowds may have been worse at Epcot due to it being the last day with a late closing. It was the first day of our trip, so a 9pm closing was attractive.
Can you pressure someone from disney to tell us if they will have the marathon festivities in January? Or could you write an article on signs pointing one way or another. I feel like if they are cancelling Xmas parties, they won’t allow 20,000 people to congregate on busses, parks, etc. I mean if they won’t allow people to crowd around a gingerbread house, what about a starting line?
Any insight would be appreciated!
I decided to go to Disney for the holiday weekend and was nervous. I drove into town Saturday, went to the Chocolate Emporium at Universal Saturday night for dinner and had to wait over 2 hours for a table. I had EPCOT booked for Sunday so was nervous after waiting so long for dinner that my weekend trip was a mistake. I stayed at the Dolphin hotel and was the only person on the bus Sunday morning going to EPCOT. I arrived at the park at 11:05am (just 5 mins after opening) and there was no line at the temperature check or the bag check. It was weird walking into the park with no lines! I pulled up the app and was scared. It was showing some long wait times but much to my surprise, the times were WAY off. It said there was a 45 min wait for Soarin, I clocked it and waited only 15 minutes and that included the time they announced they were stopping to clean. Figment showed a 40 min wait and I waited 5 mins. All other rides were a straight walk on for me except for Frozen (it started to super duper rain so I skipped that one and headed straight to my dining reservation). I left the park at 9:30pm and my bus only had 3 people on it including me! I am going back over the holiday weekend in October for my birthday and if Labor Day was “crowded” than I am even more excited about my upcoming trip because the crowds were so much less than I anticipated. The only thing I was disappointed with was the fact that the Norway bakery was closed and I didn’t get my much loved school bread!
We have tickets to go on the week you said was your favorite (Sunday Nov. 29 – Sun. Dec. 6). No park hours yet, but I wanted to go ahead and make our reservations… which days of the week are best for which parks? Or does it really matter right now?
Thank you so much for spending time and effort putting together these well-written attendance articles! It’s a huge factor for so many people as they are looking to make plans to visit the park in the coming months. We are looking at a Walt Disney World trip Nov. 19-27, 2020. Do you predict that Disney will increase their capacity by then? Also, do you think those dates have better chance of lower attendance than Nov. 23-30th? Thank you!!
The earlier dates should have lower crowds on the front end.
As for an increase, it’s impossible to say. It largely depends upon Florida’s and US case numbers. If there’s a big second wave that coincides with flu season, definitely. If there’s a steady decline between now and November…maybe?
So are you saying I should NOT book EPCOT for Veterans Day? I was figuring that since the holiday is midweek, it wouldn’t have a huge affect on crowd levels and might not be the first choice of locals coming for the day. Now I have to worry about it being everyone’s default choice?!?!!
It all depends on how busy Veterans Day actually ends up being. Due to it falling midweek and many not having it off for a break this year, it might be a non-factor. In which case, any park should be fine.
I’d probably start by making a reservation for DHS. If Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom have not filled up a few days out, switch to EPCOT. The barometer for EPCOT crowd levels going forward will basically be: are MK and/or DAK out of reservations? If so, that pushes people to EPCOT. If not, you’re good. (DHS is a non-factor since it fills up the easiest of the four.)
Does that make sense?
So what would your park pass strategy be for the week of Christmas? I was thinking Magic Kingdom is the park to avoid on Christmas Day and sounds like Epcot would also be one to avoid that day, from how I’m understanding your article. I was thinking of opting for Animal Kingdom instead as its attendance/wait times have seemed lowest overall… but maybe we should go for Hollywood Studios? Would love your perspective here!
I suspect December 26-27 will be the busiest days of that stretch since they’re the weekend.
Same recommendation as the comment above:
On the busiest day of your trip, I’d probably start by making a reservation for DHS. If Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom have not filled up a few days out, switch to EPCOT. The barometer for EPCOT crowd levels going forward will basically be: are MK and/or DAK out of reservations? If so, that pushes people to EPCOT. If not, you’re good. (DHS is a non-factor since it fills up the easiest of the four.)
Does that make sense?
Thanks Tom! That does make sense!
Thanks Sarah and Tom for all the work you do to provide us with valuable information.
In the past I have scheduled EPCOT and AK on the weekends on the theory that kids are out of school and parents are off from work so those families will be heading to MK and DHS. I see you would disagree at least with EPCOT in the fall.
I’m learning there are many other factors that need to be considered so as a layfan I rely heavily on your reports. I used my more simplistic theory to book our parks during the first two weeks in Dec. What would you suggest? And how far off is my theory?
Thanks so much if you have the opportunity to respond.
It depends on overall crowd levels when you’re visiting. If crowds are generally low to moderate (as they will be for the rest of the fall), it shouldn’t make a huge difference.
With that said, same advice as the above comments…
On what you expect to be the busiest day of your trip, I’d probably start by making a reservation for DHS. If Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom have not filled up a few days out, switch to EPCOT. The barometer for EPCOT crowd levels going forward will basically be: are MK and/or DAK out of reservations? If so, that pushes people to EPCOT. If not, you’re good. (DHS is a non-factor since it fills up the easiest of the four.)
Does that make sense?
Hi Tom, I was recently at Epcot on the weekend and did notice a much higher concentration of people in the worlds area. You are recommending to avoid Epcot and Animal Kingdom on the weekends if possible, correct? Thanks a bunch.
Sort of. That’s not a hard and fast rule. It’s simply the case that EPCOT and Animal Kingdom will see higher percentage increases in crowd levels on the weekends as compared to weekdays (and as compared to DHS and MK).
However, if crowd levels are lower during your visit, the discrepancy will be less pronounced. That’s especially true at Animal Kingdom, where the difference may be negligible.
Thanks, Tom. Great post! I’m also looking at the Thrill Data site. It seems like we’re seeing a bit of a hangover from the increased Labor Day crowds into yesterday and this morning. Do you see a new normal developing with increased capacity? Or do you see this flowing down after this week? Thanks!
Capacity levels will definitely increase over time (that has already happened with Shanghai Disneyland), but it’s hard to say when.
Right now, demand is the big limiting factor–September and October are slow months, and the parks aren’t going to hit their current caps the vast majority of days.
This is tangentially related, and could be another another Disney IT bug (shocking), but I was doing some planning for our trip this morning and checked the availability calendar (disneyworld.disney.go.com/availability-calendar).
What I noticed was no more “buckets” of passes. That is, the calendar was just showing availability and not distinguishing between resort guests, APs, etc.
Not sure if anyone else is seeing this and/or if its nothing or they are actually lifting some of the restrictions….
I see the same when using that URL. When using the one I have bookmarked (https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/availability-calendar/?segments=tickets,resort,passholder&defaultSegment=passholders) I see the buckets.
I’m not going to read anything into this yet. It’s possible they could eliminate the buckets (the 3 at a time limit on APs plus advance booking lead on hotel reservations could be a sufficient control), but I’m guessing it’s just a glitch. Thanks for the heads up, though!