Least Busy 3 Weeks of the Year at Disney World!
It’s been a slow September at Walt Disney World. Low off-season attendance has resulted in the first three weeks of the month also being the 3 least busy weeks of this year! This wait times report covers data for the month at Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom, plus predictions.
These low crowds are not a new development–neither in the last few weeks nor in recent years. Excluding the post-reopening period, the window between when schools go back into session in mid-August until October has been the slowest stretch of the year at Walt Disney World for many years running. As the first mostly-normal year in a while, September simply confirms what we long have known.
Still, it’s nice to see this actually play out, with September having the 3 least-crowded weeks of the year thus far. Plenty of other weeks and months in the last couple of years have defied expectations, in ways good and bad. September continues to be one of the few consistent and predictable months of the year, although that could be starting to change…
This year has had some added wrinkles. One has been adjusted hours, with earlier park openings but also earlier closings. Another has been a lack of nighttime spectaculars in two parks, concentrating guests around Harmonious and Disney Enchantment on the evenings it has been held. Then there’s the biggest change of all–the return of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party.
This is something we’ve covered at length, again and again. If you’ve missed all of our posts documenting why or how Magic Kingdom is less busy on the days of parties, start by reading No, These Dates Won’t Be Busy at Walt Disney World. That specifically addresses the start of the party season, but applies to all dates of Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party through December.
Every single day of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party at Magic Kingdom has been 1/10 or 2/10 on the crowd calendar. Once again, we strongly recommend doing Magic Kingdom during the day before MNSSHP, bouncing to another park by ~4 pm. We’ve also covered the upside to this approach in our new Magic Kingdom Party Day Early Entry Report and My Day at Magic Kingdom Using Genie+ on a Party Night.
But this isn’t about the impact of MNSSHP on crowd dynamics at Magic Kingdom, it’s about the bigger picture of wait time trends at Walt Disney World. Let’s take a look at September crowds thus far. As always, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll start with the weekly numbers for Walt Disney World as a whole.
The first two weeks of September were 1/10 on the crowd calendar, across the entirety of Walt Disney World. With identical averages, those two weeks are tied for #1 as the best of the year thus far. Going back even further, those are the best numbers we’ve seen since the beginning of October last year.
Crowds increased to 3/10 last week, which is still good enough for the #3 week of the year. Not even the winter months of January or February can hold a candle to wait times during the first three weeks of September.
However, the current week is a totally different story. Granted, we’re only one (partial) day in, but there has been a big spike back to the same crowd level and wait time average (6/10 and 40 minutes) as before Central Florida schools went back into session in August.
The daily numbers underscore the lows of early to mid September versus the moderate crowd levels thus far today.
It wouldn’t be the first time wait times randomly spiked as a one-off, or today could mark the early arrival of normal fall crowds. We’ll be paying close attention to see whether today turns out to be an anomaly or the start of a new trend.
For park by park analysis, we’ll start with Magic Kingdom.
As noted above, Magic Kingdom has regularly been having 1/10 or 2/10 days since the start of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party on event days. Yesterday and Friday were two such 1/10 days, with average wait times of 18 and 19 minutes, respectively.
However, today is a totally different story so far. Today is a solid 10/10 crowd level, with an average wait time of 46 minutes. If these numbers hold, it’ll be the busiest day in Magic Kingdom since March 15, and one of the worst days of this entire year. In September, of all months!
Animal Kingdom has actually seen its crowd levels increase in the last several days. It went from having 1/10 and 2/10 days from late August through mid September to having 3/10 to 5/10 days since Friday.
Once you get past the Pandora attractions, individual ride wait times still aren’t bad. For the entire month, Avatar Flight of Passage is the only attraction that has averaged a wait time over an hour. Our Animal Kingdom Afternoon Arrival Strategy is once again the ideal approach for this park. Early Entry or rope drop also work really well.
It’s so easy to beat the crowds at Animal Kingdom that Genie+ is an absolute waste of money unless you’re arriving after 9:30 am and leaving before 3 pm…which, apparently, most people are doing. (Don’t be like everyone else!)
Over at EPCOT, it’s a similar story. The low lows with 1/10 crowd levels appear to be over, as crowd levels have been 2/10 to 5/10 since last Friday.
We haven’t pointed this out in a while, but these reports actually measure wait times, which are not conclusive of attendance or crowdedness. They’re an imperfect measure of raw attendance or crowds–yadda yadda yadda–but the best measure that exists. Nothing else is objective, and perceptions vary too much. (Plus, aren’t wait times what ultimately matter most?)
Usually, there’s a nexus between crowds and wait times. Higher attendance usually equals higher wait times. But not always. EPCOT is notorious for higher “feels like” crowds, especially in World Showcase, during festivals, and on weekends and evenings. World Showcase is worse on weekends due to day drinking, while evenings are busier for people Park Hopping over to watch Harmonious. In short, people show up for things other than attractions, so that elevated attendance isn’t picked up by wait time data.
EPCOT during Food & Wine Festival weekend nights is a confluence of bad “feels like” crowd conditions. (Throw in an away UCF game and it’s a perfect storm!) In short, that 5/10 crowd number for this Saturday probably wouldn’t align with the perception of most guests in the park. We try to avoid EPCOT on weekends during this time of year, and that’s precisely why.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Daily crowds have had their ups and downs, but the overall trajectory is similar to Walt Disney World as a whole. The first two weeks of the month were 2/10, last week was 3/10, and this week is 6/10 so far.
As a reminder, individual park crowd levels are relative to other dates at the same park. Disney’s Hollywood Studios has the highest averages in all of Walt Disney World, due to its top-heavy ride roster (plus shows that don’t post wait times). Consequently, a 2/10 at DHS is an average wait time of 40 minutes, whereas 2/10 at Magic Kingdom is 27 minutes. That’s actually a pretty big difference over the course of the day.
Over at Universal Orlando, it’s a very similar story.
Honestly, this chart is more in line with what I expected to see from the Walt Disney World numbers. Last week and this week (meaning today) are starting to creep up, but more gradually. Of course, this doesn’t take into account Halloween Horror Nights, which is doing absolutely bonkers numbers this year.
With backward-looking wait times out of the way, let’s talk look forward to the rest of this month and October. The Disney Park Pass calendar is nothing but green for the entirety of September, minus today.
Honestly, I’m a bit surprised no other dates have gone yellow, particularly the last couple days of the month. Granted, it is September, but we’ve flagged that weekend as being the “worst” of the least busy month of the year.
As we’ve mentioned previously, October will be a different story. It’s too early to say when the crowds will return in full force, my expectation is that the first weekend ends up being busier than any dates in September. Of course, that’s a relative term given the total lack of crowds this month–even if crowd levels are 6/10, that prediction is technically true. (And that’s about what I’d expect.
That and other weekends being green while weekdays are yellow isn’t necessarily indicative of anything. Walt Disney World has been allocating more resources to weekends, meaning the parks are better staffed. That means the capacity cap is higher, and thus, the likelihood of reservations running out is lower.
Then there’s the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day holiday weekend. As discussed in the latest update to the October Crowd Calendar, this holiday always catches people by surprise, but it is busy at Walt Disney World during that long weekend and the dates thereafter.
This holiday coincides with fall break for many school districts, making it the most popular week for vacations to Walt Disney World since July. Walt Disney World uses Park Pass reservations to redistribute crowds so we’ve been more inclined to ignore them the last several months, but there’s a reason that week has been yellow since August. It will almost certainly be busy–I’d bet on it being the worst week in October.
In the nearer term, our expectation is that wait times start rising. In our last crowd report, we questioned when attendance would bottom out, making a “just for fun” prediction that September 11-17 would be the slowest week of the off-season. That turned out to be wrong.
September 11-17 was a 3/10 on the crowd calendar (31 minute average). The week before that was actually the least busy of the month, registering 1/10 on the crowd calendar (27 minute average). In our defense, we did say it was a “just for fun” prediction since each of the first three weeks of September would see similarly low crowds, making it likely that good or bad weather any of those weeks would be the deciding factor.
It now seems likely that the lowest crowds of the fall off-season are in the rearview mirror.
While the jury is still out as to whether today is the start of a new fall trend or an anomaly, I think the most likely possibility given the data (historical and present) is: a bit of both.
Crowds typically trend up later in the month as October draws nearer. This is a week earlier than normal, but this year has seen a lot of shifts in crowd dynamics, so that alone isn’t shocking. Today’s jump is sharper than typical, but if that drops by even ~3-4 minutes tomorrow (and it almost certainly will drop by much more than that at Magic Kingdom with tomorrow being a Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party night), we’re in the realm of what’s reasonable.
Ultimately, our expectation is that below-average attendance continues throughout the last two weeks of September, but that the 1/10 and 2/10 crowd level days and weeks are over. It was a good run while it lasted! We hope you took advantage of our advice and visited between mid-August and late September, because crowds will only go up from here for the rest of the year.
The crowds will return in October and won’t let up–at least, not consistently–until after winter school breaks end in the second week of January 2023. The big questions are just how bad crowds get, how quickly, and whether there are reprieves in the next three months between all those holiday weeks. Any idiot can predict low crowds in September. (Just look at me, a true success story in that field!) It takes a lot more skill and luck to get the coming weeks within these busier months right!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Thoughts on sleepy September crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for the rest of the month? What about October through December? How bad do you expect crowds to get for the heart of Halloween and the holiday season? If you’ve visited within the last month, what did you think of wait times? Have you done Magic Kingdom during the day of a MNSSHP night? What about posted v. actual wait times? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I was there just last week and I had a totally different experience. Thanks to Tom I knew to by the Genie pass with my tickets months ago but that didn’t even help much. There wasn’t one adult ride that was less than an hour wait except for some of Epcot like Spaceship Earth and Mission Space. Rise of the Resistance was a two hour wait and I refused to wait that long. I tried to book a Genie pass for Peter Pan around 1:30. Genie gave me a time of 3:40 but when I booked it, it told me redeemable between 8:30 – 9:30. Genie only worked for me in the early morning. I never even got to Tomorrow Land. I was able to score a virtual queue for Guardians at 7:00. Thanks goes to Tom for giving me that hint. If this was the slowest time this year I’d hate to see the busiest time.
I agree with this somewhat, but also don’t, lol! We were at Disneyworld from Labor Day (Sept 5th) through the 14th. We went to Universal on the 12th and 13th. We didn’t get genie, stand by only. We expected Labor Day to be busy. We went to Epcot that day. Hit Ratatouille and Frozen right at opening with 20-30 waits for each. Test Track was 45 minutes. Spaceship Earth was 20, which blew our mind. But guessing because of Guardians, people were doing it while waiting for their queue. We did get on the Guardians queue. All other rides 10-15 minutes, even soaring. Afternoon though was insane (it was a MNSSHP night, maybe that’s why, people not going went to Epcot?). We left at 2, wall to wall people and pretty much all rides (except Figment and Nemo) were 45 or higher. 90 for Frozen.
Tuesday: Magic Kingdom. Absolutely crowded! Worse we’ve seen ever. We were told it was because it was the day after party, so that’s when most go? Nothing under 30 minutes, not even Little Mermaid. We waited 40 minutes for Its a Small World!
Wednesday: Hollywood Studios. We lucked out here as Disney Plus day was Thurs, and most of the free merch was at Hollywood Studios. So crowds were lower Wednesday. Still high for Slinky as always, but we got on Rise in 40 minutes, everything else 30 minutes or under most of the day.
Thursday: Animal Kingdom. Dead! Everyone was at Hollywood Studios, lol! Walked on Everest twice. FOP 30 minutes. This was the only day we considered “dead” the whole trip.
Friday: Epcot then MNSSHP. Epcot was like Labor Day was! I don’t get why Epcot was so insane this trip, especially because we heard weekends were supposed to be worse because of Food and Wine? Halloween party was wall to wall people. 45 minute wait for Pirates! Treat lines stretched past several attractions. Won’t go to MNSSHP again. Toooo crowded!
Saturday Hollywood Studios, Sunday Animal Kingdom: Same as last times we went. Not bad. Not dead, but not overly crowded either. Animal Kingdom was a bit more crowded than our dead day, but it was the weekend.
Universal was nuts and we didn’t like it enough to go back if we plan a trip to Florida again. Nothing under 45 minutes except Doom Fall, Hulk and Jurassic Park. But the rest were 45 minutes or more all day. And this was the week we always read was lowest crowds! Overall, it was hit or miss, but definitely more crowded than we expected.
We’re currently at disneyworld. Got here on 9/14 for 10 days. We went to each park once and had resort days on the weekend. Honestly did not feel it was busy or overcrowded. We were quite pleased. Lightening lanes were almost walk inside. However the three of us are now positive and sick with covid. Hence we are quarantined in our room now going on day three. Horrible waste of money and so disappointed. Just praying we get better soon !!! Btw we are at Coronado springs club level and we could not be getting better treatment from this resort. They are absolutely phenomenal helping us out. We will probably never stay anywhere else . Just to let you all know we alway la stay a deluxe resorts and destino tower has been incredibly better. Don’t get me wrong we’ve always enjoyed our stays at deluxe resorts , however this tower is absolutely the best! We are watching fireworks from our room every night while sick and quarantined
From the UK and always holiday first 3 weeks in September . Parks heaving and restaurants to capacity . Think this post is misleading . Expensive and exhausting .
are leaving today and have been here September 12-20th. We come the same dates every year (for around the past 15 years), and we HAVE NEVER seen it this crowded and the wait times this long. The only day we had that felt like remotely regular September crowds was the 13th when we did the Magic Kingdom on a MNSSHP during the day. Almost everyone we talked to that also comes in September said they couldn’t believe how busy it was. Not just the wait times, but the crowds were heavy everywhere! I was here for a couple days August 2-5 and I actually felt like there were less people here then.
We stayed at the Poly and we are pretty used to going to Trader Sam’s at least once and it was literally 3-5 hour waits or completely booked up. I feel like they need to do what Ogas Cantina does and have reservations and have the experience limited to an hour. It feels like such a let down to be a hotel guest and not be able to get in for a drink!
We’ve only ever stayed at Disney resorts and the Polynesian is our favourite. But this year it cost the two of us $10,000 to stay for 9 days with park tickets. And honestly for that kind of money – there aren’t as many perks anymore and they haven’t seemed to replace them with anything either. Disney World is still our favourite place to go on our yearly mother daughter trip (which we have been doing for 15 years). But we couldn’t help but notice how often we were both going “Oh remember when we used to be able to do that? Remember how that used to be included? Remember how much easier it was when that was this way?” And these aren’t COVID related issues. But it’s beginning to feel a little hard to justify that kind of money every year now. My heart is a little sad to even write this, but I feel like a little bit of the pixie dust is somewhere lost in the wind. I just hope we can find it again. 🙂
As a California resident, how often does Tom go to Disney World? How long does he stay?
I believe Tom and Sarah moved from California to Florida quite a few years ago?
Here now. Monday was crowded, today a little lighter. Hope the rest of week gets better.
Northeasterner and TA here. Lots of schools have a 4 day weekend coming up for Rosh Hashanah. I’ve got a bunch of clients traveling this week who need to plan around school schedules, but don’t want to brave Christmas and Easter crowds. I think next week will be fairly crowded–for September.
Just swell
Hello and thank you for the website! Great information!
My wife and I are planning a quick Disney trip sept 29-October 2nd. Epcot on sept 30th and universal studios on October 1st. Was it better to book it that way, as opposed to Epcot on a Saturday?
Thank you
EPCOT on a Saturday. Lots of locals and the adult beverages will be flowing. Can sometimes get rowdy.
“Honestly, I’m a bit surprised no other dates have gone yellow, particularly the last couple days of the month. Granted, it is September, but we’ve flagged that weekend as being the “worst” of the least busy month of the year.”
I was confused by this. So, which week in September did you feel would be busiest for the month? I am thinking about a September 2023 trip. I would really like to take advantage of low crowds. Personally, the end of the month is less busy for me work-wise, but do you have any predictions as to what time of the month in September is the overall best time to go? I am leaning towards staying off property. It is just to expensive to stay on property and there not as many perks to staying on property as there once was. If crowds are low, that makes missing early entry less necessary.
Beginning of September is always best and end is usually worse.
How bad this week and next get are an open question. Personally, I’m still expecting 5/10 or 6/10 crowd levels on average for this week and next. I could be way off, though. Look for a September recap at the start of October.
Will do! Thanks, Tom.
Any news on Magik Kingdom and EPCOT staying open later? I hear guests all the time complaining about, “What kind of theme park closes at 10:00 at night”. It makes it not worth it for me to come when it closes so early. Disneyland doesn’t close that early. Why is Disney World so harsh with their closing times compared to California?
My hope is that we get midnight closings for Magic Kingdom in November and December, but I’ve been hoping that for a while and it hasn’t happened.
Staffing is one issue with Florida, but there’s also the reality that Walt Disney World often does the bare minimum that it can get away with. Disneyland is held to higher standards by its guests–primarily the local fanbase.
Since we live in the Northeast and don’t go back to school until after Labor Day each year, we usually try to book our trips for the last week of August/ first week of September period to take advantage of low crowds. This year we were there from 8/29 – 9/4 and the crowds were even lower than I was expecting. The only day that truly felt crowded was our last day (Sunday 9/4). Even though it was really hot it wasn’t too bad because we weren’t standing in any one line very long. I took your advice and we did MK on party days and the short waits were amazing. Everything was pretty much a walk on. We even only waited about 25 minutes for Seven Dwarfs and that wasn’t during early entry. We actually only made it to the park for early entry the morning that we did AK because I wanted to beat the crowds for FOP. We made it there towards the end of early entry and only had about a 30 minute wait. After doing Navi and looking through the gift shop we could have rode again with only about a 25 minute posted wait but my mom was afraid the wait for the safari would get really long while we were on line. The lines were so short we were able to get off Kali rapids and get right back on. The lines were so short most of the trip that I only bought Genie + twice the whole time we were there. Once when we were doing MK in the morning on a party day and HS that night. That ended up being a great purchase because as soon as I tapped into a ride I was able to select the next ride with essentially no wait even though the ride may have had a 30-45 minute wait. We were also able to take advantage of the extended hours which were awesome. Well aside from the 15 minutes we were stuck on the people mover and had to be evacuated from the ride. But we were evacuated back through where they were working on Tron so that was pretty cool.
My wife and I were just there last week (11-17) and had a great time…didn’t use G+ or LL at all and were able to ride everything we wanted. To me it felt like the crowds were really low (1/10 – 2/10) early in the week, and then got more crowded towards the end of the week (4/10 – 5/10), so I think the 3/10 was probably a good average. Went to MK on Sunday (11th – Party night), and there was hardly anyone there. Just about a walk-on for all the rides. Longest wait was 20 minutes for Jungle Cruise. Went to Pecos Bills for lunch at 12:30 and you had your choice of tables inside or out…never seen that before!
We were a little frustrated on Monday. Started with early entry at DHS and TOT, ROR, and Rockin were all shut down…not a good start. However, we were able to ride all three before noon. ROR was showing an 85 minute wait at around 10:30, but we just about walked on. We were off the ride in 35 minutes.
I’m not an expert on crowd levels but the lines at the food booths weren’t long either at EPCOT…a line of 5 or 6 was the longest at any booth we went to.
Stayed at the Poly and went to Trader Sam’s for the first time…it was a lot of fun! All in all it was a great week! Thanks for all of your advice Tom…it was very helpful. My wife wants to have a chat with Sarah though…can’t understand how Sarah doesn’t get motion sickness on Guardians!
“To me it felt like the crowds were really low (1/10 – 2/10) early in the week, and then got more crowded towards the end of the week (4/10 – 5/10), so I think the 3/10 was probably a good average.”
Your perception is supported in full by wait times data.
Was Labor Day an exception to late August/early September and busy 5-10 years ago or was it always as relatively low crowds as it has been the past few years?