Low Pre-Summer 2023 Crowds Continue at Disney World
May 2023 has arrived, which means the summer tourist season is about a month away at Walt Disney World. This crowd report shares wait times data, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with attendance levels in the next two months, and more.
We first looked at the post-spring break attendance trends in Sharp Shoulder Season Slowdown at Walt Disney World. However, that was only published only a few days after the heart of the school break season had ended and before new Annual Pass sales resumed.
It was very much a preliminary assessment, with only a few days of data. Those days could’ve been a brief lull before crowds picked back up or the start of shoulder season at Walt Disney World. (Given the title of the post, you should be able to surmise which is the case.) This crowd report basically looks at whether that’s the case and what to expect going forward…
As always, what’s covered in these “crowd” reports is actually posted wait time data that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for tracking and comparing various days, weeks, months, and years. A lot can be gleaned from posted wait times, but it’s not necessarily conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds. However, wait times are not the same as “feels like” crowds or congestion.
In short, wait times are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s crowds, especially if you’re comparing current conditions to prior years. Walt Disney World attendance has increased by several million people over the course of the last decade-plus, so the vast majority of days in 2023 will be more crowded than their counterparts in 2015 or 2017.
With that out of the way, let’s dig into the data and look at Walt Disney World wait times. As always, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll start with the monthly numbers for Walt Disney World as a whole.
With an average wait time of 40 minutes, April ended up being the second-least busy month of 2023 thus far. This reflects an ongoing shift of attendance patterns with January and February getting busier (a longer winter break and Mardi Gras/Presidents’ Day coinciding in February didn’t help).
It also underscores just how much attendance plummeted in the last two weeks of the month. As of our last crowd report, which encompassed only a few days post-spring break, the average wait time for April 2023 was 47 minutes. Through its first half, it was the busiest month ever at Walt Disney World.
The fact that April didn’t end up being the busiest month ever (or even in the top 20) despite such a strong first half should tell you pretty much everything you need to know.
Above is a look at weekly wait times. The last two weeks were both 1/10 crowd levels. April did finish with the second-busiest week of the year (Easter), but outside of that, every single week was average or (far) below.
Zooming out more, we come to the resort-wide daily numbers for Walt Disney World.
This shows a drop-off post-Easter, but more significantly, it shows a downright plummet starting on Saturday. That Sunday two weeks ago ended up being the slowest day of 2023 (so far) at Walt Disney World. Most days since have been 1/10 or 2/10 on the crowd calendar, with two days that were 4/10.
At Magic Kingdom, the numbers aren’t quite as bad. Instead of 1/10 being the most common crowd level since Easter, it’s 2/10 with a handful of 3/10 crowd level days. Still a great time to visit Magic Kingdom.
That’s good enough for an average wait time just below 30 minutes in the last two weeks. (Although you can’t see them because I’ve narrowed the graph date range, but the lows of last year’s party season still skew crowd levels at Magic Kingdom. Outside of those days, the second half of April was about as good as it gets at Magic Kingdom!)
As always, EPCOT is the park most impacted by turnout among locals. It’s seeing its lowest wait times of the year, despite (arguably) an increase in attendance and congestion after the resumption of AP sales.
Our expectation is that May 2023 is the ‘sweet spot’ of low wait times and ‘feels like’ crowds at EPCOT. Flower & Garden Festival is now old news, so it won’t be as much of a draw for locals, and the story with wait times won’t reverse. (That is, unless Cosmic Rewind drops the virtual queue, in which case it won’t really be a reversal so much as new data entering the system.)
The second half of April was one of the best stretches of the last two years at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. As previously mentioned, April 16 was the slowest at DHS since October 2021.
It’s exceedingly rare when DHS doesn’t have a single attraction–not even Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance or Slinky Dog Dash–average a wait time of over an hour. And yet, that’s exactly what has happened here on several days in the last two weeks.
Animal Kingdom had the busiest days of any park in the second half of April, which is undoubtedly due to Earth Day and its 25th Anniversary. I’m somewhat surprised that this moved the needle that much on wait times, as that does not usually happen for Magic Kingdom or EPCOT.
My guess (a complete shot in the dark) is that locals make the trek out to DAK less, so when they do, they have more of an incentive to do a few attractions. By contrast, everything at EPCOT and Magic Kingdom is old news because they visit those parks exponentially more. (Perhaps this is me projecting, but I really don’t think so. We have friends who visit EPCOT and/or Magic Kingdom more than once per week, and maybe do DAK 1-2 times per year. It’s a pretty common dynamic.)
For those wondering how Walt Disney World’s wait times compare to Universal Orlando, the trend is about the same for the last couple weeks. In general, Universal has seen a more pronounced slowdown on off-peak dates than Walt Disney World this year.
Like Animal Kingdom, Universal also saw a sharp spike for Earth Day. That probably has more to do with it being a Saturday than Earth Day, though. (Unless I’m missing something.)
This is our first time sharing the above graph, which tracks the price of Genie+ (blue) with average wait times across all of Walt Disney World (grey).
One thing that should stick out is that the highest crowd levels correspond with the highest prices. That makes complete sense. However, what is most interesting about this to me is how poorly the non-peak pricing tracks with crowds. If you look at moderate or lower crowd levels…the prices for Genie+ are all over the place. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions about Walt Disney World’s ability to forecast attendance and price accordingly.
Turning to forward-looking crowd forecast, we really don’t have anything to add or modify as compared to our recently-updated 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars or predictions in Sharp Shoulder Season Slowdown at Walt Disney World. In a nutshell, May 2023 should be a great time to visit, with only a handful of dates that present potential yellow flags.
Suffice to say, it’s shoulder season until around mid-June 2023, which is when we’d normally expect summer crowds to start arriving in full force. Attendance will trend upwards before that–starting around Memorial Day weekend–but the parks should see any truly bad days until mid-June.
Unlike the early fall off-season, May 2023 is not an inherently undesirable time to visit Florida. While starting to warm, the weather is not something that actively discourages travelers. From that perspective, it’s not the same as storm or hurricane season. May 2023 also comes after shorter school breaks, versus the lengthy summer vacation that’ll lead up to August/September 2023.
However, May is similar in other ways. Walt Disney World’s big public event is EPCOT’s Flower & Garden Festival, and that’s old news by the time May 2023 rolls around. It’s also arguably less of a draw than the early end of Halloween season and EPCOT’s Food & Wine Festival in August and September.
There’s only one cheer or dance competition scheduled at the ESPN Wide World of Sports this month, but there probably are a number of conventions and group events. As a general matter, these events have minimal impact on overall crowd levels, but they can impact ‘feels like’ crowds on a case-by-case basis.
If May 2023 follows established trends, crowds will continue to drop this month, before bottoming out in the second week of the month. In a normal year, wait times would start to rise again in the third week of May. However, it’s worth noting that the end of April usually offers a higher baseline, meaning there’s more room for crowd levels to fall.
When you’re starting with a 1/10 or 2/10 crowd level average, that really isn’t the case. There’s definitely more downside risk of wait times worsening that normal. Personally, I’m expecting the status quo to be more or less maintained for the next 3 weeks, but who knows. Wait times could spike slightly as “word gets out” about low crowds, or there could be more of a drop-off as even fewer school districts have breaks. Stranger things have happened.
However, there’s some variability to all of this in the historical data, and the first 3 weeks of May are close enough together that things like weather or attraction downtime are enough to move the needle. Generally speaking, all of these weeks are good, with low-to-moderate crowd levels on average. (On average, there’s a 1-2 minute difference in wait times those first 3 weeks. It’s almost statistically insignificant.)
It’s similar for the following week, which is the lead-up to Memorial Day weekend. Although this is the unofficial start of the summer season, Memorial Day typically is not among the worst holidays at Walt Disney World for crowds. It’s a lot like Labor Day, which is the unofficial end of summer.
Ultimately, the coming month should be a great time to visit Walt Disney World, with lower crowds, wait times, and temperatures as compared to June through mid-August 2023. All of this is why May 2023 ranks as the #3 month of the entire year on our Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World.
Looking forward to June and July 2023, I don’t have nearly as much confidence in the crowd calendar. As noted previously, Walt Disney World hasn’t experienced a “normal” summer in several years. Last year, the second week of June ended up being the peak, which was due to rising oil/gas prices. Before that, the resumption of normalcy followed by the COVID-comeback threw a monkey wrench into late summer crowds. COVID is a non-factor for Summer 2023, but gas prices remain a big wildcard this year.
Beyond that, I wonder whether Walt Disney World wait times and crowd levels will stay lower for longer. Perhaps this is what the exhaustion of pent-up demand really looks like; maybe consumers are finally changing their spending habits; it’s possible rising prices on everything have finally done their damage. Any or all of this could result in more of a summer slump. We’ve heard unsubstantiated rumblings suggesting that might be the case over the months to come, but nothing to conclude that crowds will stay this low. We shall see–it’ll be interesting to watch!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World during the May 2023 shoulder season before summer break arrives? Have you visited in the past during the month of May? Were you in the parks during the second half of April? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably better or worse than the others? Did you find Saturday and Sunday to be better than the ‘heart’ of the week? If you’ve visited in past weeks following spring break, did you notice a big difference in crowd levels? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I just started reading your blog. Your articles are too long. You have good information but you need to be more succinct. I find I skip through most of the articles to try and get the gist of the article. … Just a thought.
I’m going August 7-11. Any predictions on that timeframe??
Hi Tom, I don’t know how to begin a post. I hope I am not infringing on someone else’s post. My Family is coming to town May 26-30th and wants to go to Disney for one day, It’s my grandson’s birthday. I am of course a resident. I can get discount tickets though T-mobile. Is it a good idea or not because it’s Memorial Day weekend? If they insist on going, which would be the best day to go May 27- 28 or 29th. Any suggestions?
thanks so much, Sharon
Ok, hubby and I got our Florida Pixie passes. Going May 15-19. Do you recommend the Genie or Lightning things? And how much r they?
When we will be able to book a resort stay for January 2024?
Keep checking, you should be able to book later this month or by early June at the latest. I’m kind of surprised pricing for at least January isn’t out yet. You can also check with a Disney travel agent (AAA, Small World Vacations, etc); they can take your info and get back with you as soon as pricing is available.
Will be there 4th to 14th. My thoughts were lower crowd levels would continue next week as Disney do not adjust hours of operations much and next week is the only week without an After Hours event. Figured they knew something.
You’re absolutely right. Walt Disney World’s calendar certainly suggests that they’re expecting low to moderate crowd levels for the next few weeks.
I appreciate the analysis, but think it might get overwhelmed/clouded by the vast # of charts you include. Most of them seem to have the same information.♂️
I’m a huge fan of yours, but chart overload seems to an issue on occasion.
That’s definitely a fair point.
The park-by-park breakdown used to be more insightful (and still is at certain times of year), but I probably could’ve done without it here. I’ll definitely keep that in mind going forward.
We were at Universal 4/21-4/23/23—my kids had 4/21 off school in Colorado. Parks closed at 6 pm for Grad Bash on Friday and Saturday nights. The parks were busy but not unreasonable. And of course the Express lines were short. So I think that contributed to the uptick seen on the graph for that weekend at Universal.
Also there were lots of students there from DECA, which was having its national competition in Orlando that weekend—my son made states, but not nationals, for DECA. I already had our trip planned, so we would have been able to see him compete if he had made it to nationals!
So despite the numbers looking high for that weekend, it didn’t feel that way.
We did MK on Sunday April 23rd as well as Thursday April 27th and there was a big difference in crowd levels. Sunday was quite a bit slower, but Thursday was really crowded and so we only ended up staying from 9am – 2pm. HS on Monday the 24th and Epcot on Wednesday the 26th were pleasant and we could comfortably walk around and easily find a place to sit for lunch. Other members of my family went to AK on Thursday the 27th and said it wasn’t busy so they were able to do everything they wanted in half a day.
I would definitely come back this time of year. Forecast called for rain the entire week, but we didn’t see much other than a couple of nights in the evening and we were already back at our vacation rental by then.
You have got to stop telling everyone May is going to be slow! I don’t need a bunch of locals showing up and inflating wait times in the vacation I have planned so carefully around the school resting for 5 different grades (my 4 kids plus the class I teach!). If I’m gonna get in trouble for missing school I need it to be totally worth it.
We just got back from Orlando (April 22 to April 29) and it was night and day from when we attempted to thread the needle last March and totally missed. Not only did we get to ride both Tron and Guardians TWICE, we has no problem booking most rides on Genie+ (a splurge that makes things far less stressful in this case); if they’d let us I bet we could have ridden them a third time. We waited for 30 minutes to ride Big Thunder on Tuesday morning (because we had nothing else to do) and I waited 45 minutes to meet Rapunzel and Tianna right before/during the thunderstorm (my husband and kid were going to wait 40 for Buzz but they opened the whole thing up due to rain and they walked on). Practically walked on Everest three times without ILL on Wednesday. We had a very easy time eating and getting around too (except the expected bottleneck in Fantasyland after the parades). Booked Hacienda at Epcot day of and would have had amazing seats for the fireworks had they not been cancelled.
We also did Universal with the Express Unlimited (absolutely, 100% worth it to stay in HRH or PB and get this perk), but I was tracking wait times anyway (mostly because they pop up on the map) – except Hagrid and occasionally Hogwarts Express, no wait was more than 50 minutes ever and most were sub 30 most days. Even Hagrid was tolerable – our first day we waited about 2 hours, but we got the early entry timing right and only waited about 45 minutes the next time we tried, about an hour mid-day, and again less than an hour right at closing. I wish there was a better way to plan for park closures, as Grad Bash really messed with us – but again, having the Express Unlimited made it almost a moot point, so note for next time.
We’re heading to Disney on May 14-18 for a first trip. Do you recommend Genie+ for the Magic Kingdom with the lower crowds we’ll (hopefully) get?
We got Genie+ simply for the convenience. There’s only three of us, so it was a very reasonable expense that made our days that much better.
We booked May 17-21 in hopes of lower crowds and hopefully mild weather. I have heard it is very hot in May. Fingers crossed for a cool front!!!!
Pinch me I think I just read a blog where nobody is being sued. What’s the catch?
We regret to inform you that DTB is being sued after we predicted Orange County’s spring break would be the busiest week of spring break, and it was actually only the second busiest.
Don’t take this personally but I just added my name to that class action suit.
Look on the bright side all the cool kids are suing or being sued.
I’m not sure of other school districts by our STAR and FAST tests were last week and this week, Polk. If Orange, Volusia and Osceola counties were testing or pretesting these last few weeks then maybe that accounts for some of the weekday drops? Though we’re going to MK tomorrow since our STAR testing was last week.
Oh interesting–thanks for sharing! That type of stuff isn’t on the school district calendars I use, but it undoubtedly plays a role.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight spike with afternoon and evening arrivals. Between that testing and the return of APs, it’s definitely a possibility. Still think we’re looking at low (5/10 or below) crowds the next few weeks, but it’ll be interesting to watch.
My 5th grader in Palm Beach County is taking FAST tests next week. I believe most of not all Florida districts end the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. So I’m not sure there’s any discernible pattern to when they’re given.
We did our biannual DVC week the 3rd week of January this year. When I let his teacher know he would be out that week for our family vacay she was all upset cause apparently that is a big state testing time too. It wasn’t on the school calendar and he’s K so I had no idea. We had to get the Principal’s permission to approve a make up test, cause you can’t cancel a DVC hotel less than 30 days out. When he was in daycare the 3rd week of January was the best time to go. I guess that changes now to align with state testing.
Taking a friend May 13-16. His first trip age 52 and my 45th (age 54). I picked May specifically for the low crowds. I want him to experience as much as possible!
Have a great trip!
I’m booked June 5-12 because relatives didn’t want to take their kids out of school, My pleading about crowds did not sway them 🙁
Hopefully the real crowds will start the week after, but that’s probably wishful thinking.
That week is a huge wildcard at this point for the reasons laid out at the end of this post (and the shoulder season one), but I’m inclined to think it’ll still be fine. Or, at the very least, better than last year.
Who knows, though. Summer has been all over the place since 2019.
We went Easter week for the exact same reason – relatives didn’t want to take their kids out of school. May you have better luck than we did! It can’t be worse, ha.
FYI, there seems to be a big change in the availability of dining reservations available still in June. Last year around this time I had to use one of those website scraping services to get my favorite dining reservations because everything was booked.
This time around, hotspots like Oga’s seem to have plenty of slots available through June. Certainly seems like slowdown.