Magic Kingdom’s Third Slowest Day of 2022!
Magic Kingdom just had its third least busy day of 2022, and we were in the park the entire day doing rides, testing new strategy, and checking out crowd dynamics. In this Walt Disney World park report, we’ll share what it was like and why, along with how this compares to other days, and more assorted commentary.
A couple of weeks ago, we posted: No, These Dates Won’t Be Busy at Walt Disney World. That was meant to offer reassurance to readers who had followed our advice and planned on visiting Magic Kingdom on days recommended by our August 2022 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World.
Although we predicted that certain dates would be among the least busy of the year at Magic Kingdom, those same days in August were also the first Disney Park Pass reservations to book up. That led more than a few of you to question our advice…hence that post offering potential explanations for the conflict. After all, it seemed unlikely both of things two things could simultaneously be true. And yet, they were.
While the slowdown was particularly pronounced at Magic Kingdom, crowds have been declining throughout Walt Disney World. Schools throughout Florida and other Southern states are back in session, unofficially ushering in the fall off-season. In addition to that, the 2022 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is underway, bringing shorter operating hours to Magic Kingdom for regular guests on those evenings.
As we’ve discussed elsewhere, Magic Kingdom crowd dynamics during party season has been one of the key discussion points of our August through December crowd calendars for several years. It’s actually one of the easiest “predictions” we make. Those are air quotes around prediction because this pattern has played out predictably and consistently for years. It’s akin to “predicting” that Peter Pan’s Flight and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train will have higher wait times than Carousel of Progress.
While schools going back into session and fall off-season arriving is a contributing factor, this is mostly about MNSSHP. The Halloween Party disrupts crowd dynamics at Magic Kingdom in a very predictable and consistent manner. The Halloween party pushes attendance much higher on the dates it’s not occurring and lower on days of the event.
For our part, we’ve been strongly recommending that readers visit Magic Kingdom during the day on Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party nights, and then bounce to another park at around 4 pm. Park Hopping is essential during party season.
The underlying rationale for this is that many day guests avoid Magic Kingdom on party dates because the park hours are shorter and fireworks are not shown to regular guests. This results in significantly lighter crowds before the party. These same guests then flock to non-party days in Magic Kingdom.
For visitors without the Park Hopper option (which is a lot of people), visiting Magic Kingdom on non-party nights is the obvious, intuitive choice. For the same ticket price, they get several more hours in the park and get to see the fireworks.
Like clockwork, this prediction was accurate for the day of the first 2022 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. As noted above, this was the third least-crowded day of the year at Magic Kingdom.
The average posted wait time across all attractions was 18 minutes, which is a 1/10 crowd level at Magic Kingdom. This is as contrasted with a 35 minute wait time average and 5/10 crowd level for the week–with that base level also down considerably as compared to last month. (All wait time stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
This post might seem like a self-congratulatory exercise of little practical value. Neither are accurate. Again, this prediction was easy. There’s nothing to pat ourselves on the back about for being able to spot history repeating itself yet again, just as was the case every year from 2015 until 2019. And it is of value for planning purposes, as many more days like this are on the horizon.
Oh, and as for the two least busy days of the year, those were January 25 and February 8. You might recall that we strongly recommended doing Magic Kingdom on those dates because the park was closing at 4:30 pm for Cast Member appreciation events. It’s unlikely that any party season days will dethrone those as the #1 least busy date of the year. Magic Kingdom closed even earlier then and those dates fell during the winter off-season.
Anyway, now that we’ve explained what crowds were like and why, let’s take a stroll around Magic Kingdom on this early-closing day…
Many attractions were walk-ons throughout the day, including Haunted Mansion.
I guess Magic Kingdom day guests didn’t get the memo that the official start of Halloween season occurred in mid-August on a day with triple digit ‘feels like’ temperatures.
Not everything had no wait–or even a short wait–though.
While we found posted times inflated for some rides and meet & greets, others were spot-on.
Splash Mountain was surprisingly quiet despite the heat.
None of the outdoor queue was in use when I did Splash Mountain during the middle of the day. Most of the indoor queue wasn’t being utilized, either.
For many attractions, wait times were dictated more by Lightning Lane utilization than standby line length.
It was almost comical to see only a handful of guests in the standby queue, waiting for the steady stream of Lightning Lane guests to subside. This is always “a thing,” but it’s not as noticeable on busier days because both queues have a decent number of guests in them.
Other attractions had little-to-no Lightning Lane usage, meaning they were a walk-on for standby guests.
“it’s a small world” is a good example of this. Despite the 15 minute posted time, the actual wait was however long it took to walk through the queue.
Same goes for Pirates of the Caribbean.
This is one of several attractions where using a Lightning Lane could theoretically take longer. If there’s a backup at the front tapstile (not uncommon–all it takes is someone having a problem or deciding that it’s a good idea to block the line to ask a random question), it could very well take longer to walk through the empty Lightning Lane than the empty standby line.
Reduced daytime staffing is one of the potential rationales for a lower reservations cap at Magic Kingdom on the days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. While this could be happening in ways that are “invisible” to guests, it was not even remotely evident while walking around the park.
To the contrary, PhotoPass photographers were abundant (and the only thing standing between me and empty Main Street shots, quite literally) and every restaurant appeared well-staffed.
There were also no reductions in attraction capacity that I could see.
Two obvious places where this can occur are Space Mountain and Jungle Cruise. If this was happening, I missed it at both–and wait times certainly didn’t reflect it.
Jungle Cruise was still one of the consistently highest wait times in the park, and one of the most popular Lightning Lanes.
That’s nothing new, though. In general, the standby line moved at a swift pace and there were plenty of skippers navigating the perilous waters.
If you’re doubting the legitimacy of these photos or thinking they were taken at strategic times to crop out crowds, above is one that’s undeniable and alone speaks to the low crowd levels at Magic Kingdom.
No line for the Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover during the middle of the day. (Okay, maybe this is meaningless for those who haven’t been in a few years–this now always uses the extended queue during the day. The line would normally fill all of these switchbacks, and did on both the day before and after this.)
Magic Kingdom reminded me of this same time exactly two years ago. There were some eerie parallels to those traumatic times.
Definitely not the flashback I wanted to have. I prefer my spook season frights to come from ghosts, goblins, and other assorted things of the not-so-scary variety that aren’t real (allegedly).
There’s probably nothing that sums up our day in Magic Kingdom better than a comparison to August 2020 when the park was operating at ~20% capacity.
While we expected Magic Kingdom to be slow given the circumstances and historical precedent, I wasn’t expecting this. This date was the first to run out of reservations for Magic Kingdom, so this is wholly a result of Walt Disney World setting a low capacity cap. Organic demand would be low, but probably not quite this low.
That’s exactly why our zig when they zag recommendation has been to do Magic Kingdom on days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and to Park Hop somewhere else around 4 pm.
Even though Magic Kingdom has longer hours on these days, you will get less done than you could before 4 pm on a party day. So long as you’re comfortable missing the fireworks (Disney Enchantment is nothing special) or are fine watching from a resort restaurant or the TTC, we highly recommend doing your days in Magic Kingdom on party dates.
Again, if at all possible, we would strongly recommend doing Magic Kingdom on the following dates this month:
- August 16, 2022
- August 19, 2022
- August 23, 2022
- August 26, 2022
The park is now opening at 8 am on these dates, which is doubly advantageous if you’re eligible for Early Entry. Disney Park Pass reservations are not available for some of these dates, so you might need to be diligent checking for cancellations or reservation refills. The latter has already happened for some dates (and often occurs 1-2 days in advance) and the former happens with regularity.
Ultimately, that’s how the day prior to the first 2022 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party played out at Magic Kingdom…in predictable fashion. Going forward, the story should be pretty similar for all regular days before 4 pm on MNSSHP nights. With that said, there are a couple of caveats as to how things could differ.
First, Walt Disney World could observe the exact same thing we did, and add reservation capacity as a result. In fact, we would expect this to occur. Probably not by a ton, as the underlying reasons for limiting daytime attendance remain. There’s still a decent chance that management on the ground observed congestion and wait times, determines there was unutilized capacity, and adjusts Park Pass limits upwards as a result.
Second, crowds will keep changing. Fall attendance typically does not bottom out in mid-August, as many school districts are still on break until later in the month. The low point usually occurs after Labor Day, and we’d expect the same in September 2022. Towards the end of that month, attendance remains low but starts to trend upwards.
October usually sees a sharper spike, with November and December being even busier (with the exception of a few weeks between holidays). We are less confident in the degree of these crowd predictions for the holiday season, as they’re at least in part predicated on conventions and other group events. The point stands that crowds are not static–next month will be slower and October through December will be busier. Falling crowds could (more than) offset the aforementioned (potential) increase in reservation capacity, and growing attendance could exacerbate it.
Regardless, all of this will remain true to some degree for the duration of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party seasons. When crowds change, that occurs across the board–meaning this advice will still be proportionately accurate. (In other words, if it’s more or less busy on party days going forward, the circumstances will be similar for non-party days–meaning the benefit should remain approximately the same.)
To that end, we’re working on putting together a range of other strategy posts for these party days and non-party days in Magic Kingdom. At present, this includes (but is not limited to) using Genie+ on party days, standby-only strategy, 7:30 am Early Entry approach, 8 am rope drop, and Genie+ Park Hopping from Magic Kingdom. If there are any other “run-throughs” you’d like to see, please let us know in the comments. I can’t make any promises, but I’ll try to work that into our/my Magic Kingdom visits.
All things considered, August and September 2022 should be a relatively low to moderate month at Magic Kingdom, and across the board at Walt Disney World. Orange County Public Schools and Osceola County Public Schools have now started their first day of classes, and those districts have a disproportionate impact on crowd levels at Walt Disney World. Other districts around the South have also gone back into session, with the Midwest and Northeast next up to start their academic years.
Now, we just need the weather to cooperate for this to be a truly pleasant time to visit Magic Kingdom. While I’m loving the low crowds, I’m less keen on my shirt being soaked from sweat by 9 am…and then soaked from rain at [insert random time thunderstorm starts]. But that comes with the territory, and I’ll take some unpleasant weather if it means gloriously uncrowded parks!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Magic Kingdom for daytime hours on a party night? What was your experience with crowds and wait times? Do you plan on visiting Magic Kingdom during the day before the 2022 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party? Or, is the loss of fireworks and having to leave by 6 pm a dealbreaker for you? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback—even when you disagree with us—is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Thoughts on August 18th where the park closes at 7pm?
Tom – Have you read any data on what % of Disney visitors buy a park hopper vs a standard ticket? That would be relevant to party days and planning. For example, if only 20% of people purchase park hopper, then you know 80% of people will likely steer away from Magic Kingdom on a party day when it closes early.
Oops I was thinking first MNSSHP was tomorrow so did not have MK in my itinerary for that day! We were at AK which did seem busier than the previous Friday which now makes sense! I think my children would have been just as excited to bump into you as they have been the characters – every time I say…….I hear this is good…….. or …..we need to do…..etc…. they say, did Tom tell you that?! thank you so much for all of your hints, tips and information……we are at the airport due to go home after an amazing two weeks and you have really helped us get the most out of our trip thank you my second trip ever (first was as a teenager 25 yrs ago!) and first visit for hubby and our two children, we loved every minute and I don’t think I want to wait another 25 yrs to return thank you
(Grammar missing as had put emojis in instead in places…..that are not showing! D’oh)
We were there, thanks to your advice! Oddly our longest wait was Mickey’s Philharmagic as we just missed a show. Great day! Even got the next to impossible near empty castle photo with my kids looking and smiling.
Curious if you took this photo of Stitch at 10am? He did that same move for my son (to copy his shirt). Highlight of the trip!
Remind me, please. When does the MK parking lot open? I have a 7:30am ADR at Steakhouse 71 before going to MK on a party day.. Alternatively, I could take a bus to MK from my Disney resort. What is the earliest they leave a resort? 6:30 or so?
Hey Tom,
What part of Annual Pass unavailability do you think plays a part in the low crowds/low park pass cap?
We are going in Septenber 9-16. And we have been trying to book both dinner reservations or a specialty event like a dessert party at magic Kingdom and there are no spots/reservations to be found at lot places or events. If September isn’t so busy then why is this? I did get Halloween party tickets. Also when we tried booking a Deluxe resort a few weeks ago. There was nothing at a lot those neither. We did get a garden view at Boardwalk Inn. Not our first choice but that’s what we could get. For a month that’s not suppose to be really busy it’s not been easy getting things booked. ??
Hi Tom do you think the low crowds will apply to Tuesday 30 August as this is also MNSSHP . It seems that the park hours for that day have just been brought forward for early entry 7.30am
I’ve been watching the wait time and genie + data both on MDE and thrill data and I’m curious about one thing as we move into the “off-season”… while wait times have reduced, the sellout times for G+ rides have not always moved the same way. In fact, on some days SDD, Remy, Test Track, etc seem to sell out or move even quicker into the afternoon and evening hours than they did at the end of July. Similarly, does this change for weekdays vs weekends? Could the # of G+ allocations for a given ride actually be tied to a % of attendance caps at a park for a given day?
I’m following your strategy of going to MK on a party day but I have a 7:30am breakfast ADR at Steakhouse 71 first. Am I good doing that?
Hi John! Given the fact that rope-dropping Magic Kingdom is not a significant advantage at the moment anyway, I’d say keep your ADR. You should still be able to get everything done in the parks on a low-crowd day.
“I’ll take some unpleasant weather if it means gloriously uncrowded parks!” This is my mantra and why we will be visiting near the end of this month.
Do the relative level of crowds still max out before 11 AM? (For general knowledge, at the MK crowds tend to build up in the mornings to the max and are pretty much are there until at the first fireworks show of the evening. Think a long plateau rather than a peak like at AK.) Tom was seeing 10:30AM, or even earlier when crowds were high post-closing so I’m wondering whether that will continue be the new normal during “low” season.
We were at Magic Kingdom on this day (Aug 12th) and it was amazing. We arrived shortly before 8:00 am and walked on almost every ride. For those that turn away from visiting on an early park close day, here is what we accomplished: Big Thunder Mountain Railroad (3x, walk on), Splash Mountain (walk on), Sleepy Hollow for Waffle Sandwiches & Cold Brews, Jungle Cruise (<10 min wait), Pirates (2x, walk on), Dole Whip & Citrus Swirls for Tiki Room (walk in), walked right up to the rope at 11:59 am to view the 12:00 parade in Frontierland, Haunted Mansion (5 min wait), It's a Small World (walk on), quick break for lunch at Pinocchio's (mobile order), Little Mermaid (walk on), Tea Cups (walk on), Space Mountain (10 min wait), Peoplemover (2x, walk on), Starbucks and walk through the shops, back to the hotel by 3:00 pm to rest and park hop to Hollywood Studios by 6:00 pm. It was such a relaxing day, never felt rushed. We wandered around the castle, observed character meet n greets from afar, sat and enjoyed the ambiance, while accomplishing a lot of attractions.
We were there also and it was honestly the best day at the park. It was our 2nd MK day of the week and the low crowds were unbelievable. We walked on so many rides (Space Mountain, Pirates, Buzz and more) that all were 30/45+ mins earlier in the week if not more. Two rides on Seven Dwarves both less than 30 min waits. You could see that crowd change start occurring after 4pm, but by then you could have so much accomplished. Highly recommend going on a party day.
Nice! But was it worth it dealing with that heat and humidity?
Scott, we think it is! Usually we will only stay at the park until 1:00 or so and skip the hottest part of the day, then jump to another park around 5 or 6. We live in Minnesota, so we are used to the humidity but certainly Florida likes to kick it up a notch or two. So many queues are indoors, and you can always pop into a shop just for a blast of AC. Moisture-wicking clothing, comfy sandals, a hat, liquid IV or Pedialyte packets help a lot. We follow a lot of Tom’s summer packing list tips as well.
Looking forward to your strategies! We will be using your advice and doing our MK day on 9/25 and then turning in for the evening before our early flight the next day. I have been contemplating what is the best strategy for using Genie+. Stacking from 4-6pm for when the party guests arrive? Or just getting in as many headliners as possible throughout the day using the service. Love seeing your articles pop into my inbox! Keep them coming!
I’m doing the party that night and doing MK day on 9/27.
Question that isn’t related to this article, but this seems like a good a place as any to ask!
I’m planning a trip for the end of September. Hotel is already booked, but my park tickets aren’t. When I looked into buying the tickets, Disney asks for you to select your “first day”. However, I realized that if I selected my first day as a Wednesday instead of a Thursday, the price was way cheaper, but it said I could use the tickets on any day from Wednesday-Saturday. Can I select my first day as Wednesday, go to the parks on Thursday and Friday, and get the cheaper price? Or does my first day actually HAVE to be Thursday? Not sure if it will mess up when I go to make my park pass reservation, or if my hotel reservation (staying on property) has to match with the ticket dates as well. Seems to good to be true for that to actually work.
Not a definitive answer by any means but we saved a couple hundred dollars off of our resort package by arriving on a Sunday instead of a Saturday. It seems like the ticket price for the entire trip is based on your arrival/check-in day if you are staying at a Disney resort.
Pick the Wednesday! The ticket price you are quoted is based off the average for all the dates that would be available within your selection, so if you pick a Weds to start instead of a Thurs you might have less of those expensive weekend days. You do not actually have to go to a park on Wednesday, either. As long as your tickets are good for the range of days you will be there, you can use the tickets on any of the days.
Pick the Wednesday! The ticket price you are quoted is based off the average for all the dates that would be available within your selection, so if you pick a Weds to start instead of a Thurs you might have less of those expensive weekend days. You do not actually have to go to a park on Wednesday, either. As long as your tickets are good for the range of days you will be there, you can use the tickets on any of the days.
You absolutely CAN buy and use tickets that are cheaper and different from your actual first use date, IF it’s a two day or more ticket. Just keep in mind the schedule: a 2 day ticket is good within 4 days beginning on the start date of the ticket; a 3 day ticket is good within 5 days beginning with the start date; a 4 day ticket is good within 7 days beginning on the start date; a 5 day ticket is good within 8 days beginning on the start date; 6…9; 7…10; 8…12… So if my 2 day ticket’s start date is 9/1, I can use it any two days between 9/1 and 9/4, I don’t have to use it on 9/1. I could use it 9/3 and 9/4, or 9/2 and 9/4.
Fab, really looking forward to MK on 23rd August
Great information Tom. I asked before but did not get a response. If I have tickets for MNSSHP, can I book Genie + or ILL for the 4-7pm time slots?
Hi Tom,
We’re going to be there the last week of August and were already planning to do MK on party days before hopping to another park. Looks like MK will be open at 8 am those days, so we would probably get there around rope drop, don’t think we’ll make it for early entry. Had originally thought about stacking rides at the 2nd park after grabbing something like Jungle Cruise and Peter Pan which still usually have long waits. Would definitely be interested to see if its worth getting Genie for those days now given the change to getting passes at the second park. We are hopping to HS on one party date and may try to do AK and EP on the second.
Thanks, Tom! Do you think the lighter crowds at MK will also apply to Labor Day with MNSSHP that evening? Or will Labor Day be the exception? Thanks!
Do you think this is the same case with the Christmas party?
Yes, I wondered the same thing! We are traveling in the first half of December, and right now I am planning to have our family rope drop MK on party days and then hopping somewhere else in the evening. My guess is that attendance will be lower than it is on non-party days in December, but perhaps not quite as low as non-party days right now, as overall attendance is probably higher in December than it is in late August.