New Wave of Disney World Attraction Closures, Cancellations & Cuts
At the beginning of May, CEO Bob Chapek said that although Disney believes in the concepts Imagineers have developed, upcoming Walt Disney World and Disneyland projects would be reviewed with a “fine-tooth comb” to save money. We’re now starting to see the first wave of this “combing,” and cover the resulting closures, cutbacks, and cancellations in this post.
Chapek’s original “fine-toothed comb” statement came as a follow-up to a statement that the parks would spend $900 million less than originally forecast this year by delaying and cancelling construction. Disney’s profits were down 91% to $475 million, and the closure had already cost the Parks, Experiences and Products division $1 billion primarily in terms of lost revenue.
This was revealed during the second quarter earnings call, which encompassed only 16-18 days of Walt Disney World, Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris being closed. It also came at a time when Florida was viewed as a success story and circumstances in California were improving. In other words, it was possibly the peak of optimism about the mid-term future of the parks.
Even at that time, the Walt Disney Company was pretty blunt about the current circumstances and near-term future. The third quarter is likely to be significantly worse (that earnings call will occur on Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. EDT) as both Walt Disney World and Disneyland were closed for the entirety of that period.
There will likely be improvement in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter results, but it’ll likely still be worse than the already very bad second quarter. As for when Disney will see a return to its first quarter results? That is likely–quite literally–several years away.
Earlier this week, Cowen analyst Doug Creutz downgraded his rating on Disney’s stock after cutting his financial estimates and price target due to what he now expects to be a “longer impact on parks and film” due to accelerated spread and the prolonged impact of the pandemic. Much of this is predicated upon Disney’s film slate, and the likelihood that theaters will be largely closed until mid-2021.
As for Walt Disney World and Disneyland, the financial analyst expects the “recovery trajectory to be pushed out at least one year.” He said he believes that the best case scenario is heavy capacity restrictions remaining in place until at least mid-2021, along with a meaningful probability that the parks could close again. Consequently, this analyst does not believe Disney’s park profitability will return to last year’s levels until fiscal year 2025.
We’ve been highly skeptical of reopening predictions made financial analysts in the past. These individuals typically have no expertise in theme park operations, but understand the financial contours of the Walt Disney Company and its many business units.
Moreover, this is an unprecedented time, and these predictions run the gamut and often contradict one another. Suffice to say, cherrypicking the views of a particular analyst can validate your own preconceived notions, economic outlook, and general worldview—no matter what they may be—if that’s what you’re seeking to do.
With that said, there is consensus that Disney’s parks have a long road ahead, and recovery will not occur this year or even next. Financial analysts can quibble over whether the full recovery occurs in 2023, 2025, or 2027–but the point remains that it’s not happening in the next two years. And without certainty as to when the recovery will occur, the Walt Disney Company is in a precarious position during the intervening years.
That means less spending. It’s an inevitability that project cancellations, cutbacks, and existing attraction closures will occur at Walt Disney World. The same is true for staffing and layoffs. It’s not really a question of if these things will occur, but when and to what extent the severity will be. (Which is why a quick bounce-back later this year would’ve been great for Walt Disney World.) We’re now seeing this play out, with the first attraction and entertainment closures, plus projects “postponed” and scaled back for Epcot…
As covered in our Mary Poppins Epcot Expansion Info post, Walt Disney World quietly removed some concept art and scenes from the Epcot Experience overview video when the park reopened after its four month closure. Most notably, this included the segments on Spaceship Earth and Cherry Tree Lane in the United Kingdom.
In turn, Disney released the following statement: “As with most businesses during this period, we are further evaluating long-term project plans. The decision was made to postpone development of the Mary Poppins-inspired attraction and Spaceship Earth at this time.”
While the Walt Disney World spokesperson uses the term “postpone” in the statement, we believe the Mary Poppins/Cherry Tree Lane project is cancelled or shelved indefinitely.
The statement also means that Spaceship Earth will not receive its previously-announced multi-year reimagining and will instead continue to operate in its current form. Spaceship Earth needs a refurbishment for reasons unrelated to its show scenes and content, so at some point in the next few years, it will likely need downtime. However, that probably will not include the “story light” projection mapping changes.
There was also speculation that the new Festival Center had been scaled back. This new pavilion, pictured above, was slated to be a three-level structure with some of the most remarkable architectural designs at any Disney park, featuring a plaza level, a middle expo level, and a park that sits in the sky on the top level. The upper garden will provide a stunning elevated view of the entire park and an ideal view of Epcot’s new nighttime spectacular.
Disney released another statement, indicating that the company will “take a different approach” with the new Festival Center. While no details were offered, our expectation is that a Festival Center will be built, but not an architecturally-ambitious three-level structure.
Special events are lucrative business for Epcot and the Innoventions buildings where the Festival Center was to be located have already been demolished, so something will be built in that general location. As something that will directly generate revenue, the idea of a festival center won’t be cut entirely–just its scope and scale.
When it comes to the entire Central Spine redesign, you can expect a dramatically reduced budget–so adjust your expectations accordingly. Think more ‘mulch & grass’ and less things like the various interactive spaces and play areas. So much room for activities!
Next up, Walt Disney World has sent a memo to Cast Members informing them of the permanent closures of Stitch’s Great Escape, Primeval Whirl, and Rivers of Light. The first two are no surprise–we reported on Stitch’s Great Escape being gutted months ago, and even before then, it hadn’t operated in over a year.
Primeval Whirl actually reopened for the busy holiday period late last year, but still had “seasonal status,” which is almost always the kiss of death for Walt Disney World attractions. At one point, both of these attractions had replacement plans that were close to being greenlit. That almost certainly is not the case now, although I’m not 100% sure on that.
Rivers of Light is a bit more surprising. Walt Disney World spent a lot of money developing (and fixing!) this nighttime spectacular for Animal Kingdom in its efforts to keep guests there the entire day. Of that initiative, only Pandora – World of Avatar remains.
For our part, we actually liked Rivers of Light and reviewed it fairly positively. It concerns me that this might be the last big budget non-IP addition at Walt Disney World. However, I can count on one hand how many times I sat and watched the show in its entirety and we hadn’t watched Rivers of Light: We Are One in over a year. So I guess we’re part of the problem. At least the show’s beautiful soundtrack, which will do regularly enjoy, will live on.
Ultimately, even the announcement that Rivers of Light has already performed its final show shouldn’t come as a surprise. More cuts, cancellations, and closures are an inevitability, and some of them likely actually will be surprising. We don’t want to sound all doom and gloomy, but that’s simply the unfortunate reality of the present circumstances. While many Walt Disney World fans have probably yet to process it given everything else that’s going on, the fallout here over the course of the next decade is likely to be on par with or worse than the EuroDisney boondoggle or post-9/11.
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Your Thoughts
Are you disappointed by any of the cutbacks, closures, or project cancellations that have been announced thus far? Anything else you expect to be shelved indefinitely? Think this will end up being worse than the EuroDisney or post-9/11 fallout? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Instead on spending money on redo Splash Mountain use the money for some of the canceled projects
Yes!! I’m sure it’s illegal but that was my dads favorite and I put his ashes in that ride! I LOVE it and when I was there in February it was closed
We cancelled for this August and I booked for next year. I was hoping Spaceship Earth would be completed. But I also hope for the train to be running at Magic Kingdom again. It is just not the same without a ride on the train.
I wish they would do a price rollback like in 2015 .so icould go back I’ve been19 times since 1999 .but prices got to be too much now .but I really want to go back Andy spend time in parks and at carribean Beach Hotel . Love that’s place maybe 2021
There are some things where cutting makes sense. But IMO the Festival Center is not one of them. Whatever you build there, you have to live with as a park centrepiece for 30 years minimum. You just can’t afford to mess it up, or not go big IMO. And yet, they will, because the people who have to deal with the fallout in 15 years will be their successors.
I totally agree! I think they would be foolish to not go all in on the Festival Center project. There are other projects not started or revamping that can be held off but this should not be one of them.
Tom,
I always appreciate your take on things. You use some humor, funny references and are frank but don’t pretend to know everything. When you are speculating, you say so. Thanks for bringing us Disney news in a great manner! I have to say, I’m most upset about the plans in Epcot being shelved or adjusted.
Maybe a reduction in pricing? From what I have read and heard, lots of people not willing to make the gigantic investment with uncertain outcomes. Entice people back with some savings over the next year and maybe profit wouldn’t be so high but the stigma of an over the top priced vacation would ease. Incentives for company conferences would be a good idea as well. Disney is not great at discounts but may need to embrace them to get families and corporations in the door in the next year.
Great idea. Platinum AP is at least $600 over-priced in this environment..
The issue is throughput and capacity. Disney was able to charge so much pre-pandemic because they were essentially running at max or near-max capacity at peak times. So reducing the price during reduced throughput means they’d make even less still (esp with the additional operations overhead with sanitation and what not). If anything – they’d charge hugely more – but even that won’t come close to improving their revenues.
I won’t miss PW at all. They could also eliminate the carnival games and install tables with umbrellas to provide seating options for snack stands and quick service.
I agree! Getting rid of those Carnival Games and adding more seating and QS, is a much better idea in that area..I never understood the need for those games, or ANY Carnival games at ANY Theme Park. It is a way for these businesses to try and make more money for sure, but I never saw many people buying into them, at any park, but especially at WDW Parks, IMO.
There is very little fact being presented and a lot of guessing going on. Only the bean counters know to a point, what is and what is going to be. I for one, will continue to hold a very positive outlook for Disney. It will take time. No one knows how long it will take, but I just closed on a DVC at Polynesian which added to the SS owned. It will be back and I have the patience to weather this storm. Tom’s view points are good, usually dead on, and very informative on keeping us commoners updated. Hang in there people. We’re all in this together but keep planning because some day it will be better than expected. This current time is bad, money has been lost, but if you have your health, why are you complaining?
it is kind of sad for the closures and stuff because alot of people look forward to these things and take their kids there to experience the things that they use to as kids and with the closures it brings a lot of people down
So true and our health means everything. Without our health, we won’t be going. Waiting it out, making plans and dreaming of our next trip to our happy place- all worth it and I look forward to spending more amazing family vacations at Disney!
Tom, I just want to thank you for your Step Brothers reference. Well played.
I am disappointed that they plan to re theme Splash Mountain. I believe they could find room to create a “Princess and the Frog” ride without taking away Brer Rabbit, Brer Bear and Brer Fox!
Totally!!
Hopefully the Brer’s will end up next to Mr. Toad in the haunted mansion pet cemetery…
As a family w little ones River of Lights was the only nighttime entertainment we could watch. The fireworks are too loud for my kids, we didn’t make it out of Epcot before they started one night and it was torture! So I am very sad to see this go. It was a beautiful show to watch, and a change of base from the loud fireworks scene.
You know Disney is not hurting for money when there CEO’s and upper management still make millions and cast members make shit. And they are the ones who have to come to work and out there health at risk. And Disney told them if you do t like it get another job. Even Abigail Disney made it clear they are crazy of opening up. And they are. And I you know someone is going to get sick but the public will never know. Just like universal only the workers knew about the manger at the water park tested positive and who knows how many people he came in contact with. But if you can’t live without Disney then go ahead and take your family. Why do you think Disney makes sure you know you are going to the parks at your own risk. Plus who wants to walk around in 90+ weather with a mask on.
Statistically-speaking, there are undoubtedly both employees and visitors to the theme parks who would test positive (but are asymptomatic) at any given moment.
However, Dr. Raul Pino from the Florida Department of Health in Orange County has repeatedly stated (most recently during this week’s OC Economic Recovery Task Force Meeting) that they haven’t found a single outbreak attributable to the theme parks. They are regularly looking for this have yet to find any–after over one month of Universal, SeaWorld, etc. being open.
This is so true. As the mom of a cast member I can tell you firsthand that Disney is not concerned with the health of their employees. It’s all about the money. It’s incomprehensible to me that the food and wine festival is going on in Epcot right now. The check-in process for cast members is extremely unsafe. Why would you put your employees in this position. And given the current numbers in Florida, why would you want to go to Disney right now?!
Responding to Tom’s response, I’m not sure how they are defining “outbreaks attributed to theme parks.” It may be an issue of data manipulation. Consider, for instance, the MLS bubble; already two teams have been removed (Dallas and Nashville) and a third team (Columbus) has had a positive case.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/sports/soccer/story/2020-07-09/mls-is-back-nashville-expelled-nine-players-test-positive-coronavirus%3f_amp=true
These have occurred after arriving in the “bubble”. Consider all the precautions (daily testing, isolation, etc) that are afforded to the affluent athletes with an inability to protect them, and then consider that those heroic measures are unavailable to the general park visitors and cast members. The conclusion would be that it is impossible to pretend that park associated outbreaks aren’t already occurring. It is disappointing that local, state, and federal agencies have decided that park attendance should not impeded, and any evidence to suggest that safety is being compromised is being diminished, dismissed, or dismantled.
Science that comes to a conclusion first, and then filters the data such that the conclusion is preserved is bad science.
I don’t like what I’m reading. Too much negativity based on opinion to discourage people. If not coming from Disney…Fake news! Stop the hurt.
“I don’t like what I’m reading…Fake news!”
I feel like this might someday be the title of a chapter in a history book about the last few years.
I’m confused by your response and wonder if we read the same blog post. Tom’s response and outlook didn’t sound negative to me, and his information wasn’t “fake news.” He shared which projects are being suspended or cancelled, information that was shared by Disney.
booked Port Orleans June 2019 and, while I know it will not be open for this September, when I am supposed to be there, Disney will not tell me where I should e. if it’s Caribbean Beach I want a refund. place way too big and not cosy like French Quarter
Anne McMcCartney, I was booked at All Star Sports for August 17-23. My payment was due yesterday. I called to make my payment and the cast member asked me when I was planning to change hotels since mine was closed! Oh wow! I sorta thought Disney should have contacted me with the change me since they chose not to reopen my hotel. The cast member filled out the requisite form for me over the phone and I got a price guarantee since Pop Century was slightly more expensive. So all’s well that ends well. (And I get a coffee maker in my room, hurray!)
So do I need to forget planning a family reunion or my company meetings at Disney World ?
Did Animal Kingdom also stop the projections they were doing on the Tree of Life at night?
@Will, at this point, I don’t think it really matters, as DAK closes at 6 P.M., long before it gets dark.
We have seen Rivers of Light once. And I was bored to death with this slow moving, dull snooze fest. To think they even built a stadium for seating guests during this debacle. Won’t miss it in the least.
Same. It was a snooze fest.
Sure there has been money loss but it is not like the Disney company is hurting after the multiple decades of gouging while upper execs lined their pockets. This current play is an excuse to scale back and hike prices. Too many sheep will still follow. There needs to be innovation to keep people coming back. Looking forward to what Universal has planned for current future properties. They will in turn keep Disney competitive, we hope!
I will not miss SGE. Hopefully, it is replaced with a non-IP based animatronics and physical sets type attraction rather than another IP screen based attraction. It would be nice to continue the space or futuristic themes of Flight to Moon, Mission to Mars, Alien Encounter, Peoplemover, Sonny Eclipse, or Space Mountain in any new attraction but please no Star Wars.
I will also not miss PW but if there is an elaborate replacement, hopefully Disney continues the dinosaur theme.
I enjoyed the RoL show and will miss it (although not at the same mourning level as other closed nighttime entertainment like Reflections for Earth, original Illuminations, Wishes, or Spectromagic). It is too bad it never gained popularity or worked properly like the imagineers intended. I will disappointed if any new show is just another compilation of Disney movie clips.
The Festival Center was one of the ideas that stood out as misplaced IMO. The design is interesting, but it looked like it should be in an actual city as part of a convention center or downtown museum, not EPCOT.
After what we’ve come to learn, more open-air seating and rest areas may be a good idea though. Unfortunately, the new space themed restaurant’s concept would pose some issues, with the elevator to access it and its enclosed nature.
I haven’t seen detailed plans for the Festival Center, but as to your belief it should be in an actual city, the original EPCOT (I notice you do use all caps as in the original) was thematically a pseudo-city. The ideas of the original EPCOT were so intriguing to me, and I can only hope at least some of the creativity and forward-thinking will return!
I hadn’t looked much at plans for the Festival Center, but Epcot has developed its theme park identity as a center for festivals, so the Center, if well designed, has the potential to be Disney’s most used and most popular piece of architecture, and maybe the most recognizable, since Walt got the idea of putting a Castle at the middle of Disneyland. It needs to be a step up from the usual convention center, airport, or shopping mall. I think Disney can do that.
BTW, I helped prep and load a bonsai for this spring’s garden festival at Epcot. I intended to go take a look, but the pandemic got in the way. So there’s an excuse to check out Epcot-as-it-is.
Somewhat OT, but just realized the new Star Wars hotel may be impossible with social distancing. Wouldn’t be going there (too expensive and not into role playing) but it’s a loss still because it was something really different and I like to see innovation. And innovation is probably the best way to honor Walt. Plus it helps keep the Imagineers motivated.
The thematic imagining that went into the Star Wars hotel is quite unique. I’m sure at some point in the future, the covid situation will cease to exist and it will be safe to open a hotel like that, but yes, for at least the next year+, it’ll be nearly impossible to open.
Let me put it this way. Can anyone think of two other attractions, or another nighttime spectacular, that they would rather be cut in place of these? Disney hit the nail on the head with this. Something had to go, and I think they chose wisely.
@MomOTwins, I’m right there with you! Primeval Whirl and Stitch’s Great Escape were my two least favorite WDW attractions. I did try to like Rivers of Light, but I could never muster much enthusiasm. The Epcot spine redesign is a real disappointment, though. I’ve been pining for investments in Epcot for decades, and it’s sad to see this park get less love than it deserves.
I can’t stand Fantasmic! I’ve tried to watch it twice and couldn’t hear or see well. It seemed far off in the distance, like I was trying to watch and understand a TV show on an old-timey TV from the house next door.
I recognize I’m a minority on that one, though, as it seems to be many people’s favorite.
BeckyS: If you haven’t seen Fantamic at DLR, it is so much better than the one at WDW. I wish they could bring the DLR version to WDW. Peter Pan is so much more fun than Pocahontas.