No, These Dates Won’t Be Busy at Disney World
In a few recent posts, we’ve covered the best and worst days to do Magic Kingdom next month. This has been predicated upon the 2022 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party, which causes crowd levels to fluctuate dramatically by day at Walt Disney World in August, September, and October. (Updated July 29, 2022.)
This is really nothing new. As we’ve discussed countless times, MNSSHP disrupts crowd dynamics, but it does so predictably. The Halloween party pushes attendance much higher on the dates it’s not occurring and lower on days of the event. It was a hot topic last year when Disney After Hours Boo Bash was announced, a decision that was likely based at least in part on anticipated heavy crowds for the kickoff of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. (Which never materialized due to reinstated mask rules and the Delta variant.)
Magic Kingdom crowd dynamics during party season has been one of the key discussion points of our August through December crowd calendars for several years. It’s actually one of the easiest “predictions” we make. Those are air quotes around prediction because this pattern has played out predictably and consistently for the last 5+ years. It’s akin to “predicting” that Peter Pan’s Flight and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train will have higher wait times than Carousel of Progress.
Recently, Walt Disney World adjusted its schedule to account for this. Magic Kingdom will now stay open for one extra hour–until 11:00 pm–from now through August 2, plus the following dates:
- August 13-15, 2022
- August 17, 2022
- August 20-22, 2022
- August 24-25, 2022
- August 27, 2022
These extensions are all on nights when Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is not being held.
Previously, in our August 2022 Crowd Calendar Update, we predicted that these would be the most crowded dates of the month. Of course, that’s relative–after the first 10 days, August is the fall off-season. From mid-August through late September is not a particularly busy time as a whole at Walt Disney World.
More importantly for savvy Walt Disney World vacation planners, Magic Kingdom will open an hour earlier–at 8 am–on the following dates:
- August 12, 2022
- August 16, 2022
- August 19, 2022
- August 23, 2022
- August 26, 2022
Again, this is also due to MNSSHP–these are all event nights when Magic Kingdom is closing to day guests at 6 pm. We previously predicted these would be the slowest dates of August 2022 at Magic Kingdom.
For our part, we’ve been strongly recommending that readers visit Magic Kingdom during the day on Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party nights, and then bouncing to another park at around 4 pm. Park Hopping is essential during party season.
The underlying rationale for this is that many day guests avoid Magic Kingdom on party dates because the park hours are shorter and fireworks are not shown to regular guests. This results in significantly lighter crowds before the party. These same guests then flock to non-party days in Magic Kingdom.
For visitors without the Park Hopper option (which is a lot of people), visiting Magic Kingdom on non-party nights is the obvious, intuitive choice. For the same ticket price, they get several more hours in the park and get to see the fireworks.
That’s exactly why our zig when they zag recommendation has been to do Magic Kingdom on days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and to Park Hop somewhere else around 4 pm.
Even though Magic Kingdom has longer hours on these days, you will get less done than you could before 4 pm on a party day. So long as you’re comfortable missing the fireworks (Disney Enchantment is nothing special) or are fine watching from a resort restaurant or the TTC, we highly recommend doing your days in Magic Kingdom on party dates.
All of this was our advice before Magic Kingdom moved to 8 am opening times on MNSSHP dates. Now, it’s an absolute no-brainer, as rope drop occurring at 8 am means significantly lower crowds for that. Ditto Early Entry starting at 7:30 am. The vast majority of guests cannot or will not be at Magic Kingdom at that hour, so you’ll have a tremendous advantage. We’ll test touring strategy once these dates roll around, but I’m guessing (with a reasonable degree of confidence) that Genie+ won’t even be needed at Magic Kingdom on those MNSSHP dates.
We cannot overemphasize the crowd disparity between days with and without the early closure due to the Halloween party. This is a prime example of taking the counterintuitive approach and embracing the shorter hours. You’ve probably read all of this before.
The reason we’re reiterating all of this is because something odd has happened in the last week. Above is a look at the Disney Park Pass calendar for August 2022 as of this morning. Disregard the first week, which is still summer season and the last hurrah for many locals before school goes back into session.
What’s more interesting is August 12, 16, and 19, all of which are yellow–fully booked for Magic Kingdom. (Until yesterday, August 23 was also yellow.) All of those are Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party nights. So, what gives? Are our crowd predictions wrong?
That’s always a possibility. We have been stressing for a while that crowd calendars are less reliable than ever as the reservations system, pent-up demand, and other unprecedented factors undercut historical data and under predictors of crowd levels.
It’s thus possible that we are going to get this one wrong. I’m humble enough to admit when I’m wrong, and will do so again if that turns out to be the case here, and wait time data for Magic Kingdom on non-party days reflects lower crowd levels for those dates.
With that in mind, let’s discuss some possibilities about what’s happening here…
First, one theoretical scenario is that tons of people read our August 2022 recommendations and I single handedly managed to manipulate Walt Disney World attendance patterns. (Not sounding so humble now, am I?!) This is mentioned because commenters occasionally question whether they should do the opposite of our advice since “everyone else” is reading this and will follow these strategies. Consider that the counter-counterintuitive approach.
While I certainly wish more people would heed my warnings and follow my advice, this is utter nonsense. If Walt Disney World visitors were following this blog’s suggestions on any meaningful scale, Country Bear Jamboree would have perpetual 90 minute waits, Sanaa would be the most coveted ADR, Chester & Hester would be out of business, and Mickey would’ve had his chef’s hat revoked by now. None of those things have even come close to happening.
Even if every single person who has read any of our several posts with the August 2022 park recommendations followed them, that would only amount to ~1% of all Magic Kingdom visitors on any given day. In all likelihood, that dramatically overestimates the influence of our advice. A lot of regular readers likely don’t have trips planned for August and others are unwilling or unable to follow our recommendations.
In short, this blog is not moving the needle on crowd patterns at Walt Disney World in any meaningful way. That’s true not just with this particular topic, but always. The counterintuitive strategies here work because the vast majority of visitors don’t use them, and opt for the intuitive approach. Even most people who do read this blog disregard a lot of its advice and will never know the joys of Country Bear Jamboree.
A second possibility is that Walt Disney World has set its preliminary attendance limits for each park in August 2022 and is counting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party ticket sales against those caps. This would explain why MNSSHP dates have been the fastest to fill up during the early fall off-season.
This would make almost no sense. Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party occurs largely after park closing; the only overlap between that event and day guests occurs between 4 pm and 6 pm. That two hour window can be crowded and chaotic with an influx of arriving and departing guests, but the rest of the park isn’t noticeably busy as a result. (Especially in August.)
Odd as it might sound, this is a possibility. We have it on good authority that Walt Disney World tries to set attendance caps to allow unimpeded Park Hopping, which has meant lower daily limits for Magic Kingdom as more guests head there after their first park for Disney Enchantment.
That makes sense during normal operations if the other parks have excess capacity. Not so much when it comes to Halloween or Christmas party dates since there’s minimal overlap between daily ops and the events. It’s literally just two hours, and there are almost as many people leaving then as are arriving.
If this “doesn’t make much sense,” then why is Disney doing it? Well, your guess is as good as mine. A lot of Walt Disney World fans want to assume that the company is all-knowing, playing a well-orchestrated game of 4D chess that is beyond the comprehension of anyone looking on from the outside.
That’s often not the case–one hand often doesn’t know what the other is doing. Basic blunders are made due to a lack of foresight, loss of institutional knowledge, arrogance, etc. There might be a desire to believe there’s some deeper explanation here, but it’s quite possibly a simple mistake.
Giving Walt Disney World leadership the benefit of the doubt, another possibility is that this is purposeful. Management anticipates the other 3 parks having plenty of excess bandwidth to absorb guests on days that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is being held, and has deliberately set a lower attendance cap at Magic Kingdom as a result.
In this scenario, their goal would be ensuring that the guest experience is better for those who have a shorter day in the park, with people able to accomplish just as much in a partial day as a whole one at Magic Kingdom. This would be a charitable explanation, but great if true. My hesitation in believing this is my own eyes. I’ve seen everything else that they’ve done to the guest experience in the last couple of years, making this explanation a hard sell.
It’s also possible that this is purposeful, and due to ongoing staffing shortages. A few people suggested this in the comments and on social media, and it’s highly likely that they are correct. We’ve pointed out on several occasions in park hours updates that Magic Kingdom likely can’t open earlier than 9 am or stay open later than 11 pm without adding shifts, and that can’t be done due to an insufficient number of Cast Members.
While staffing has been improving and likely will get better by the time Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party starts, it’s still an issue. Walt Disney World probably is still in a position that Magic Kingdom will need to reallocate some daytime shifts to the evening during MNSSHP.
In theory, this could impact ride capacity or efficiency, thereby increasing wait times during the day of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. This would most likely be evident on attractions cast-intensive rides like Jungle Cruise or Space Mountain, but dispatch intervals could be impacted on other attractions.
Still, we would not expect this to increase wait times much in mid to late August 2022 outside a handful of attractions. This is usually a slow time with excess capacity, so a slight decrease in operational efficiency shouldn’t hurt much. What it’s more likely to mean is a longer line to pick up Mobile Orders, fewer PhotoPass photographers during the day, and things that aren’t measured by normal wait time data.
My operating assumption at this point is that Disney has lowered the day guest cap for some reason–whether that be benevolence or clumsily counting MNSSHP guests against it. The real reason doesn’t matter, so long as it’s not actually due to more demand for the 6 pm closure days.
It’s possible–if not probable–that we’ll see more Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party dates “fill up” for Magic Kingdom in August 2022 on the Disney Park Pass reservation calendar. Given how things have played out thus far, that will probably happen before many non-party dates book up. (Although at some point, the yellow will become a self-fulfilling prophecy and people will scramble to book other dates, too.)
However, this does not mean those dates will be busier. As we’ve covered elsewhere, Walt Disney World has been using reservations to manipulate attendance and the Disney Park Pass calendar is not conclusive of crowd levels. The company has been using reservations to increase the utilization and normalize numbers across all four parks.
That’s why “fully booked” days have such inconsistent crowd levels, and Magic Kingdom has ranged from 3/10 to 9/10 crowd levels on dates that were “fully booked.” There would not be such dramatic fluctuations in wait times if “fully booked” were a relatively consistent attendance number.
If our theory is correct here–that Walt Disney World is for some reason counting MNSSHP guests against the daily attendance cap for Magic Kingdom–that will amount to an even odder way of redistributing attendance away from Magic Kingdom. It would also be one that would backfire, assuming adjustments aren’t made with attendance limits prior to the Halloween and Christmas parties.
Personally, I don’t think that’ll happen–or won’t happen more than once. If August 12 rolls around and nothing changes, Magic Kingdom could be quite slow during the day. That would probably (hopefully?) result in leadership reevaluating reservations, and why Magic Kingdom had such low daytime attendance on a fully booked day.
My actual hope and expectation would be that Walt Disney World starts evaluating Park Pass reservations once August arrives, and someone internal questions what’s up with Magic Kingdom. In that scenario, reservation availability is refilled for MNSSHP days, and the dates that actually book up are Saturdays, followed by other non-party dates.
Of course, this is all highly speculative and assumes there’s not some other explanation I’m not overlooking. Maybe mid-August is suddenly the hot time to travel and more people want to visit Magic Kingdom on days it closes at 6 pm. (Perhaps they’re fearful of vampires.) This would defy years of historical precedent, crowd level data, and basic logic. But it’s still possible.Â
Ultimately, that’s my take and it could be wrong. However, not only am I willing to stick with this one, but I’m doubling down on it pretty strongly via this post. That should say something about my confidence level and the amount of crow I’ll have to eat if this ends up being inaccurate and Magic Kingdom is packed on MNSSHP days with sanguivoriphobiacs.
Even in the face of “evidence” to the contrary via the Disney Park Pass reservation calendar, I simply do not believe days when the Magic Kingdom closes at 6 pm will be busier than days it closes at 11 pm. For one, that would fly in the face of years and years of data to the contrary. For another, the Disney Park Pass calendar stopped being determinative of crowd levels months ago, so why would we suddenly give it any credence?
All things considered, August 2022 should be a relatively low to moderate month across the board at Walt Disney World once school goes back into session, decreasing across the board beginning around August 10, 2022. That’s the date that both Orange County Public Schools and Osceola County Public Schools start their first day of classes, and those districts have a disproportionate impact on crowd levels at Walt Disney World. As other districts around the South, Midwest, and Northeast start their academic years, crowds will continue dropping for the remainder of the month.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think…will non-party days when Magic Kingdom closes at 11 pm be busier, or too much of a vampire risk for the average Walt Disney World guest? Is August 2022 going to be the year that defies historical precedent and logic, with days of MNSSHP being busier? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback—even when you disagree with us—is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
This is going to make things difficult. We have 7 day park hoppers, my parents and sister who are joining us are FL AP holders and and can only reserve 4 days at a time. So we just cross our fingers August 26th doesn’t follow suite and fill up so they can’t go? Maybe I’ll have them drop an AK reservation that is unlikely to book up and grab this one while they still can.
Or maybe not, these dates seem to be sold out for regular tickets but AP are showing green for all 4 parks for all of August. Still might have them change reservations just to be safe.
Wow! There’s a lot of thought that went into this article in hypothesizing the scenarios. Very impressive! With all the newly breaking data I’m curious how long it takes to write an article like this when things are changing quickly? I’ve got an MNNSHP on the 23rd, and three other days for MK, which include a Keys to the Kingdom tour. I may be crazy to do that tour in August, but with a 12 night stay I figured this was the opportunity.
Thanks
Honestly, I’ve noticed that sometimes days where the parks are fully booked will often times “reopen” park reservations a week or so beforehand. It may be that they are keeping some park reservations in reserve for APs/locals who decide to go last minute? It’s more likely the staffing issues though–a few Disney YouTubers I follow have mentioned that while the park doesn’t seem very understaffed, that they have seen an unusually large number of new CMs training over the last few weeks. So if nothing else, turnover is clearly an issue.
We’re booked to come to MK on 23rd Aug. Not doing the MNSSHP, so I’ll be interested to see what you make of the crowd levels during the day on early party nights.
I have 100% read the posts & am showing up at MK on 8/19! w apparently a lot of new friends. Have MK PP booked on 8/23 as well, along with MNSSHP that same night . . . . Sanaa IS IN FACT the best ADR, and anyone w/ a dry sense of humor who isn’t spending alot of time w Big Al & Liver Lips is missing out! I will keep you posted on how the Disney Tourist Blog WDW trip goes b/c this trip has used everything in this blog.
I am in MK on 14th and 22nd for rope drop and 17th for a few hours before the fireworks. Not sure what the crowds will be like but our 10 park days are now fixed due to our dining reservations. What will be will be.
I have gone during the day on Halloween party days and loved it, but this year because of EEH and me not buying a park hopper (just didn’t make sense for our trip this time) we will be there Aug 24 and not be able to zig when they zag. I’m hoping the EEH, and genie+ will make up for any slower lines during the day. Oh well!
“I’m hoping the EEH, and genie+ will make up for any slower lines during the day.”
It definitely will. I wouldn’t be worried in the least if I were going that day and had Genie+ or EEH, let alone both!
I see that Hollywood Studios is also full on most of those Tuesdays in August. Do you think maybe along with shifting staff, they’re anticipating a lot of park hopping over to HS?
Once Magic Kingdom starts filling up, DHS usually quickly follows suit. I wouldn’t read anything into that.
(I reserve the right to change that response if we get an announcement that Fantasmic is coming back by those dates. 😉 )
Hello Tom!
Thanks again for all your content, I need advise cause I’m trying to fit 4 parks and “ events “ in 3 days and am losing my mind ahah
We’ll be there from Sept 14 to 17 (wed to Friday) and need to fit 4 parks. We are park hopping and doing genie +
What would you do for park reservations, knowing we will attend extended evenings on wed at MK and Halloween party on Friday night lol
Thx 🙂
MK all day on Friday and in the evening on Wednesday for EE.
However you arrange the other parks in that doesn’t much matter–I’d probably do AK as my partial day Wednesday, but that’s just me.
“I simply do not believe days when the Magic Kingdom closes at 6 pm will be busier than days it closes at 11 pm.”
Maybe the caps are being calculated (in part) as a function of hours!
In theory it could make sense that, everything else being the same, a park that is open for 12 hours can absorb more guests than a park that is open for 8 hours. While I think that’s less true for the MK in general than other parks with less attractions, it is obviously true that historical data is showing that *these* shorter hours do drive people away. (As it is, this just adds to the reasons that Park Hopping is very beneficial right now.)
Definitely a possibility.
And I’d really reiterate your final line. We usually recommend the Park Hopper add-on if it’s in budgets, but from August through December, it is downright essential. People should trim their budget elsewhere in order to afford Park Hoppers.
@Tom, why do you recommend PH during those months…because of the parties? Even if we aren’t attending the parks on those days? Sorry, could be because it’s 1am and I’m up trying to plan our trip in 9 days but I’m having a fog-brain moment. Thanks.
With the August 16 MNSSHP is sold out, thoughts on crowd levels for the event?
There’s a strong possibility that ALL dates are going to end up selling out. Even then, that does not mean they all will be equally crowded. We touch on that a bit in this: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/least-crowded-mickeys-scary-halloween-party-dates/
We are planning to go to MNSSHP at the beginning of September. We haven’t purchased tickets yet, mainly because I want to see how the first few parties go to make sure it is worth buying tickets. Do you think we need to buy them before the parties start? I noticed that August 16 is already sold out! Any advise would be appreciated.
Do you have multiple potential dates you can go? If so, I would wait–but buy as soon as the first one sells out.
I think you should have time to read reports and assess, but I personally wouldn’t make that gamble without a safety net. (I also did not expect Oogie Boogie Bash at DL to sell out as quickly as it did.)
Tom,
First time, long time. What should I do on Labor Day? A holiday and a party night. The plan was to save Magic Kingdom for the following day, but you’ve got me rethinking it.
Labor Day itself is not a particularly busy holiday. Then again, neither is the day after it.
If there’s some reason you really want the longer hours (fireworks, enjoying night in MK) stick with your schedule. If you have the ability to Park Hop, consider changing it.
One theory I’ve read says that Disney has to reallocate some staff who would be working those days from day shifts to evening shifts to have enough people working during the parties, leaving them with fewer daytime workers. In order to have “enough” day workers to adequately staff the daytime guests, they need to limit the number of daytime guests. It isn’t like in the pre-Covid days, when Disney had loads of available workers who could be called in whenever Disney needed them. They have to divide the people available to work those days into different groups, and they don’t have enough available workers to staff both groups at “full” park capacity.
This theory is probably the correct one.
I can’t believe I didn’t include it in the original draft of the article. I’ve mentioned this time and time again when it comes to Magic Kingdom’s 9 am to 11 pm hours–it very obviously would apply here, too. Good call–I’ve added this to the post itself.
Thanks for the analysis! We’ll be heading there during MVMCP and this is so helpful for our planning, especially as the reservation system begins to fill up for those dates. We’ve already switched our 2 MK days to party days. With 3 little kids we plan on being gone from the park by early closing time anyways.
Agreed, this smells like another Disney IT glitch and they’re counting party tickets in with park tickets.
I kind of hope they leave it as is and the few people who actually have park tickets have a crazy amazing day running through an empty park, just like in the commercials.
I’ll be there on the 12th despite my better logic to go on a 6pm closure day. Unfortunately this was the day we booked breakfast at the Castle not thinking we had to worry about Halloween so early in August before the dates were announced. Here’s hoping your one theory is right and it’s a miscount which will be a very low crowd day to help make up for it.
Same for us too! It’s our son’s birthday and all he will want to do is ride Jungle Cruise so MK it is. Let’s hope the predictions are right for us!
@Steve tell me about it re Halloween in August. Our first time going and I was shocked to see the Minnie lunch at Hollywood & Vine we have booked would be Halloween themed! So weird to be in sweltering heat thinking about Halloween to me, lol. But hey, we’re rolling with it.
Any chance it’s being limited so Disney can reduce staff (and save money) until the afternoon when park hoppers and party guests can start arriving? If so do you think that would involve lowering ride capacity and thus reducing the advantage of low crowds?
Quick question, Tom!
The Extended Evening Hours fall on non party nights. How do you think those guests will factor into the equation? I’m watching this party play out because we will be attending during the Christmas version. I’m debating whether it will be worth it to even set foot in MK on Wednesday, or if there is value in those 2 extra evening hours. I am weighing the value of those 2 hours against just attending the from the middle of the day on the day we attend the party.
I would consider park hopping to the Magic Kingdom that evening, and am actually building those plans into my early October trip. Those extra two hours are really worth while, and at least some of those larger crowds start to dissipate after dinner. (I forget Tom’s exact suggestion, but I want to be in the park long before the first firework crowd exodus.)