October Crowds Spike at Disney World
It’s time for a look at October 2021 wait times at Walt Disney World. In this crowd report, we’ll analyze data from the last few weeks since the start of the 50th Anniversary celebration, cover the unsurprising spike, and offer thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with numbers at Walt Disney World this holiday season.
By way of recap, fall off-season arrived earlier and has seen a sharper drop in wait times than normal at Walt Disney World. There were various theories as to why attendance and wait times were so low, and we cover the most—and least—plausible explanations in Walt Disney World’s Lowest Crowd Week of the Last Year.
In our view, the biggest causes were Florida’s run of record case numbers in August and Walt Disney World’s reinstated indoor mask rule. While the mask rule remains, Florida’s latest wave peaked and has dramatically decreased in the last month-plus. That plus the start of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and fall breaks has resulted in crowds predictably increasing. What wasn’t so predictable–and still isn’t completely–is the degree of the increase…
With Genie+ and Lightning Lanes set to launch tomorrow at Walt Disney World, we wanted to return with a look at crowds before that. (See our Guide to Genie+ and Lightning Lanes at Walt Disney World.) It’s not yet known what impact the Disney Genie system will have on crowds, but it’ll certainly have some impact.
Every iteration of FastPass ever has caused an increase in standby wait times, so the same should be expected here. It’s just a question of by how much, and to what degree that will impact crowd levels. There’s no useful historical data, since this is the first instance of a purely pay-to-play FastPass system in the domestic parks.
It thus makes sense to make a clear break with some wait time analysis now, and then again in a couple of weeks after Genie launches to have a before and after comparison. With that in mind, let’s dig into this month’s wait times through October 17, 2021…
Let’s start with a high level look at monthly wait time averages across the entirety of Walt Disney World. (All graphs and wait time stats courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
October 2021 is decidedly average, sitting at 30 minutes. This is higher than August or September, but significantly lower than July. It’s identical to May and June, which we viewed as “sweet spots” when Walt Disney World was increasing ride efficiency faster than park capacity. However, as we’ll discuss below, the circumstances are very different now.
Next, here’s a look at weekly wait time averages across Walt Disney World. The last three bars are October, plus the end of September.
That green bar is deceiving since this measures wait times rather than crowds. There’s no clean way to quantify the latter, whereas wait time data is pretty easy to track, compile, and analyze. Normally, wait times are a good proxy for crowds, which should make sense intuitively–they usually go hand-in-hand.
That was not the case for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary kickoff. Despite what the wait times suggest, we can assure you that it was extremely busy that weekend and very busy the following week.
However, guests visiting for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration were disproportionately there for the experience, doing things that cannot easily be quantified–and less concerned with attractions. There were walk-on wait times, even for some headliners. By contrast, there were long waits for food, merchandise, and crowds for entertainment. Viewing areas for Harmonious and Disney Enchantment filled up far in advance.
We can see exactly this play out at Magic Kingdom, which had a 1/10 crowd level on October 1 and spiked to 8/10 levels in the last week. While we call these “crowd levels,” they’re more accurately “ride wait time levels.”
This is important to note because, throughout these graphs, you’re going to see green for the first weekend and week of October. That’s totally accurate as far as wait times go, but does not tell the full story. To the contrary, feels like crowds were higher then, and have actually leveled off since.
Contrary to wait times, my anecdotal perception of feels like crowds was actually lower last week than the two weeks prior. It’s just that guest demographics have shifted, and the parks are starting to see more visitors who prioritize rides, so those are increasing whereas feels like crowds are decreasing.
Above is a look at Magic Kingdom wait times by attraction for the last week. Note that this encompasses the Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day long weekend and fall break for many school districts.
The highest average wait time was Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at 75 minutes, followed by Jungle Cruise at 71 minutes, Splash Mountain at 64 minutes, Haunted Mansion at 60 minutes, and Peter Pan’s Flight at 58 minutes. Overall, Magic Kingdom averaged 8/10 and 9/10 crowd levels throughout the last week.
Continuing to Epcot, where crowd (or at least wait time) levels have remained moderate. This park continues to be the outlier, just as it has been since summer, with average waits that put it in the 4/10 to 6/10 ballpark for the last week.
Attractions with the longest wait times were Test Track and Frozen Ever After, at 55 and 57 minutes, respectively. Soarin’ Around the World averaged a 34 minute wait time. Nothing else has been above 20 minutes, which is what brought the overall average down so much. If you walked around World Showcase in the afternoon or evening, “low to moderate” probably was not your perception of crowds. Your perception would be correct–again, this is just the wait times.
Animal Kingdom is a similar story to Magic Kingdom. The month started out very slowly, and wait times have since increased, pushing crowd levels to 7/10 or 8/10 most dates (with a couple 5/10s in the mix).
In the last week, the two Pandora attractions are the only rides with significant waits: Avatar Flight of Passage averaging 85 minutes and Na’vi River Journey averaging 44 minutes. Kilimanjaro Safaris and Expedition Everest averaged 36 minutes and 33 minutes, respectively. All those are significantly shorter later in the day–some are even walk-ons.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
This continues to be the “busiest” park at Walt Disney World, with average daily crowd levels hitting 9/10 and 10/10 some dates in the last week, before inexplicably falling to 5/10 over this weekend. (If you can make sense of that, you’re smarter than me!)
Wait time averages are skewed by Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, which is the only attraction to hit triple digits over the last week with an average wait time of 122 minutes. While I cannot say this is always the case, our experience with that ride is that wait times are often massively inflated–there just isn’t a ton of queue space, and higher posted wait times is one way to discourage guests from getting in line.
Still, Slinky Dog Dash is averaging a 91 minute wait–and that’s very high. Same goes for the four other rides with wait times right at 60 minutes. Even assuming the Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance wait is overinflated, DHS was still the busiest park at Walt Disney World in the last week. That’s something that should be anticipated going forward, especially without stage shows to soak up crowds.
As we’ve reiterated for months, the lack of shows, atmospheric entertainment, and ongoing dining constraints (among other things) can result in “feels like” crowds that are worse than what’s reflected in the wait time data. It’s also likely that with physical distancing gone and “please fill in all available space” back, guest perception of “comfortable congestion levels” is highly variable–especially among those who have largely avoided crowds for the last year-plus.
In terms of our perception as frequent visitors for the last year-plus, October crowds are noticeably worse than September–and have been since the beginning of the month. Contrary to the wait times, this is not a recent development that occurred in the last week. We’d say “feels like” crowds throughout October have been on par with June or last November–still not as bad as July. (Thankfully, the weather has been significantly nicer than summer; that plus significantly lower case counts has also probably played a role in getting locals out of the house and into the parks.)
This sharp spike in wait times and crowd levels is still better than what we expected! Despite last week being filled with fall breaks and the holiday weekend, wait times settled in the ~8/10 range. That tracks with feels like crowds, which were surprisingly comfortable. This also suggests a “recoupling” of crowds and wait times, which is presumably because the superfans who showed up for the kickoff of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary have since departed. The visitor profile should once again be more normal, meaning more guests who are focused on riding attractions.
Wait time levels of 7/10 or 8/10 may not sound great, but keep in mind that we previously feared a “crowdpocalypse” situation at Walt Disney World for the last 3 months of the year, with most dates hitting 10/10. Due to lingering pent-up demand, the 50th Anniversary, and sold out hotels, that scenario was entirely plausible. Everyone knew the 50th Anniversary was going to draw big crowds, the question was how much attendance would jump between September and October.
For us, it wasn’t as sharp of a spike as expected. Thus far, it would seem that the wave of cancellations, hotel unavailability, lack of international travel, etc. is taking the edge off–and will probably continue to do so for the remainder of the year. This is precisely why we downgraded forecasts with the latest update to our 2021-2022 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars.
Ultimately, the next ~3 months are going to be busy at Walt Disney World, and none of this is to say otherwise. We would expect crowd levels of 7/10 or higher for the overwhelming majority of dates in the remainder of October, November, and December. Barring extreme weather, there will not be a single 1/10 or 2/10 date for the rest of the year. I’d personally be surprised if overall levels drop below 5/10 for more than 7 days between now and early January 2022.
Whether that’s good or bad news will almost certainly depend upon your expectations. If you were hoping for low crowds this holiday season, it’s sure to be a disappointment. If you were bracing yourself for the absolute worst, there’s cause for mild optimism. Given that we fell into the latter camp–and were warning of ‘record crowds’ for the start of the 50th Anniversary–we’re feeling fairly decently about this. At least, for now. We’ll revisit this sentiment after a couple weeks of Genie+ and Lightning Lanes to see just how poorly it ages! 😉 (Seriously though, if standby wait times remain in the 8/10 range even after Genie+ and Lightning Lanes debut, we’ll consider that a win.)
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions for where crowds go from here in the last two weeks of October, after Genie+ and Lightning Lanes launch? What about during the holiday season? Did you visit Walt Disney World during the first three weeks of October 2021? If you’ve visited in prior months during the last year, how did crowds compare between then and now? What did you think of the wait times? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We were at Disney October 10-15 and it was busier than I have ever seen it. It was also very hot. We did get to ride most things we wanted except for Slinky Dog, but we couldn’t seem to fit in much of anything else like Disney Springs. It just took so much longer to accomplish much and I came home even more tired than usual after a Disney trip.
I was there from October 12-15 and I thought Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios were quite busy. Epcot and Animal Kingdom much less busy for ride waits. DHS was the worst with several rides with 60+ minute waits. Got in line for RoTR with a 105 minute posted wait and it would have been accurate except it went down during the wait so it ended up being like 140 mins. This was my first trip in forever without any fast pass option and I wouldn’t do it again–I would have gladly paid for Genie+ / individual lightning lane if given the option. Boo Bash was nice. I would definitely look at staying at a deluxe next time for extended evening hours.
I am also seeing under Fireworks &Nighttime Spectacular in HS “Wonderful World of Animation”, at 9:00. Never seen that before today. Does anyone else see that? Pretty sure I’m not crazy.
We were in the parks 10/9-10/15. We were at HS for the holiday on 10/11, and I thought it was miserable. There were so many people at Black Spire Outpost that it was hard to move around. And the vast majority of the rides throughout the park had wait times of at least an hour all day. I am so glad I already experienced Black Spire Outpost last October (2020) when crowds were restricted. At that time I was in love with BSO; not so much this time. As someone who was unsuccessful in obtaining a spot in the Rise of the Resistance queue on three different days with three people trying last fall, I like that we can now just wait in line. Yes, it’s a long wait, but if you want to ride, you have the opportunity. The ride is amazing! MK was also super crowded when we were there 10/12 and 10/15. But Boo Bash was awesome with minimal waits. So much so that we bought tickets for a second Boo Bash! Animal Kingdom and Epcot felt much better with average and tolerable crowds and wait times.
Visited WDW from 10/13 – 10/17 staying at Olde Key West Resort. Not as crowded as expected, but some observations. My Disney Experience App was very glitchy – especially trying to book dining. Times appeared & disappeared only to reappear moments later. We experienced more ride breakdowns on this trip than ever before. Snow White, Test Track & Winnie the Pooh broke down after almost hour waits – only offered lighting lane for another ride once. Wait times were exaggerated overall, a nice surprise. New for us, Flight of the Avatar & Remy’s Ratatouille adventure – both fantastic. Virtual queue worked well for Remy, not a long wait for Avatar that made up for a 2 and a half hour wait in 2020 for Navi. Epcot seemed tired, boarded up, even Spaceship Earth was down. Still love Soarin, but we only spent half a day at Epcot even with the Good & Wine Festival.
Animal Kingdom gets better & better – the safari has matured nicely. Food is finally improving.
Hope Disney accelerates some of their renovations. Still hate waiting for buses. Next trip I’m back on the monorail or walking distance to Magic Kingdom.
Appreciate your updates.
I was at Hollywood Studios on Monday October 11th. Yes, it was Columbus day, but I have gone to Disney for every Columbus day for the past 15 years. This was the busiest I have seen Hollywood Studios. We were able to ride Rock-n-Roll Coaster twice, Tower of Terror once, Micky’s runaway railroad once, Toy Story mania once and Rise of the Resistance once.
That is six attraction experiences. We were there for non-extra hours rope drop and left at 7:00 that evening. Six attraction experiences with a stop for lunch included is not enough to feel as if I justified the cost of admission and parking for the day.
One thing that was a negative for someone that stayed off the Disney property, is the extra 30 minutes at all parks for on site guest. In years past, if you were staying off site, you could schedule around the extra magic hours so that rope drop was a great opportunity to get 3-5 ride experiences in before the population picked up. This past trip to Hollywood studios resulted in a 45 minute wait at Tower of Terror, 40 minute wait at Rock-N-Roll Coaster and a 160 minute wait time at Rise of the Resistance. as soon as the park opened for none on-site vacationers. That extra 30 minutes might not see like a lot, but it essentially negates any advantage that off site guest have in being there for rope drop.
One other thing to add. Our wait time to get on Rise of the Resistance was 3 hours. While in lined I casually polled people around me, and people we passed while waiting in line, how they felt about the Fast Lane. I asked about 100 individual groups, and that accounted for about 400 people (rough estimate). I found that about 90% of the people I asked stated that they would pay up to $20 per person to get a fast lane for ROTR.
While it may seem crazy to many of us that you would pay $26 to park, upwards of $135 for a park ticket to enter, and then pay an additional $20 to experience one attraction (ROTR), the overwhelming number of people I asked while waiting in line said that they would pay the money to avoid waiting in this line again. Most commented, “I know I am going to spend a lot of Money when I come here, so I’m prepared to spend more to avoid a 2-3 hour wait time.”
We were there 10/2-10/9 and crowds weren’t too bad except on our last day (Friday 10/8). But, the 30 min early entry got us on Space mountain and Haunted Mansion before park opened. We thought that 1st wk of the 50th would b awful but it wasn’t at all. We had a great time!!
We were at Disney Works visiting all 4 parks from October 10-15. Wonderful trip but…, very very busy all the way from rope drop to end of day, to the point where we left each day around lunch to get a breather. The early magic hours was very helpful getting on the big rides at each park. We waited 90+ mins for Minnie Railway, 90 mins for Slinky and unfortunately never got on Jungle Cruise or Peter Pan. The extra hours at night were awesome – better than Boo Bash which was crowded on Friday night.
I think they are inflating the wait times in an effort to sell more Genie+ when they open up tomorrow
I wouldn’t read anything into it, as wait times are always inflated. Same is true at Universal Orlando, where they’ve monetized skipping lines for years.
There’s really no good solution to it–accurate wait times would cause other issues, with the main upside being greater transparency for Lightning Lane buyers, many of whom would probably pay regardless.
Thanks for following up with the person who mentioned extended hours at ak and HS. If that was true it would certainly be a game changer! I hadn’t found either but obviously don’t have your sources.
I check the my Disney experience app regularly and have noticed a significantly increasing number of rides closed temporarily throughout the day especially at HS Any way of knowing if Cast members are cutting off lines temporarily or is it truly that the ride is unexpectedly down? Based on your Disneyland experience how will temporary closings affect genie + reservation. Apologies if that is already in FAQ and I somehow missed it.
Just checked on MyDisneyExperience.com. . Clicked on Park Hours. Just checked again and yes, extended hours at both parks. Gonna do both those parks at night and make park reservations for MK and Epcot. Am a bit more encouraged at others comments that crowds were not horrid. Thanks for all the updates!
Well, we were there Sept 30-Oct 7 and crowds were not bad at all. Went into MK around 930 on the 1st, missing the hordes of vloggers and Instadorks, ebay pirates, etc. Did almost everything in the park that day! Longest wait was for Pan, about 30min. The only things we skipped are Dumbo, Barnstormer, Pooh, TSI, CBJ and HOP. Space was literally a walk-on! My nieces did Speedway 3 times! We paid for premium parking and the extra $25 was so worth it with no trams running on the 1st. Did it again a couple of other days too at $20 on weekdays.
What was absolutely miserable was having to wait more than an hour for our food from Friar’s Nook. This is completely unacceptable. No fault of the CMs in the kitchen, but another failure of Disney’s outsourcing IT several years back and the continual crappy results.
When I was a CM, we got our butts ripped if a supervisor walked by and saw posted waits that were inflated. They were required to be accurate to within 5 minutes throughout the day.
I dunno Tom, I think ROTR does have a pretty decent queue area as compared to most other stuff. We waited around 40 minutes for it.
Thanks for sharing your experience!
Walt Disney World has been using wait times to manipulate crowds since the launch of My Disney Experience, but it has gotten worse since reopening. At first, some of that was legitimate due to the lack of space in the physical distancing era. Now, I think it’s purely about capacity allocation. Regardless, it benefits guests who understand how the system works, so I’m not going to complain too much.
The queue for Rise of the Resistance is great, but it’s not long enough to hold a multi-hour wait without FastPass/Lightning Lane. Once it’s over about 90 minutes (actual wait), it spills back into Grand Avenue. The launch of Lightning Lanes will fix some of that, but even then it depends upon how many people buy.
Good Morning!
We have a trip planned this Friday and I noticed on the calendar they have added additional hours for Deluxe hotel guests at HS and AK. Please tell me you think this will help alleviate crowds a bit, otherwise this may end up being a resort trip with a Halloween after hours thrown in.
Where do you see Extended Evening Hours for DAK and DHS? I checked both the regular monthly calendar and the dedicated page and am not seeing that–just the normal ones at Magic Kingdom and Epcot.
Not sure if it answers your question, but the Extended Evening Hours are fantastic–a great way to beat the crowds. See our MK report: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/evening-extended-hours-magic-kingdom-photo-report/
We were there on October 7-10th in fall four parks. I would describe the parks as lightly to moderately crowded. Many rides had waits of less than 15 minutes. The park seemed busiest in the morning and dinner hours. I think families with small kids left for afternoon nap and before the evening hours hit. Some of the parks really felt empty during the last few hours of operation. At one point the Star Wars rides were both under an hour, with the Millennial Falcon ride at 30 minutes. Whole sections of the park felt really empty, as people tended to congregate in the popular ride areas. We did the Boo Parade, which I have mixed feelings about. From 9-12 the park felt really empty, especially in the last hour. There were almost no lines for any of the rides, and if they were it was 10 minute or less. The problem was 1) the parades were lame, consisting of one float and a few dancers and random intervals and places in the park 2) the lack of people made it feel like a party that no one wanted to attend; sort of depressing. Out in front of the castle, there was some sort of lame dance contest with standard DJ music (slide to the left, slide to the right), a few Disney dancers, and a handful of people participating. It reminded me of the last dance at a high school gym prom after all the cool kids have already left and the teachers are having a little fun. All in all, crowds much less than I had feared. Waits were very tolerable (nothing more than 40 minutes and that was rare). Heat was bad, especially in HS where there is no shade. In its current iteration, I would not recommend buying day tickets to Magic Kingdom and Halloween Event. I would do one or the other but not both.
Thanks for sharing your experience!
Both Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios are definitely emptying out at night. That was happening in August and September due to a lack of things to do (a mix of low wait times and not enough entertainment being back). Our experience this month is limited, but it seems even more pronounced with both–probably people park hopping for Harmonious and Enchantment.
Epcot and Magic Kingdom, on the other hand, seem busier at night than they did before.
Was there the last few days of August and the first week of October. Had a great time, Never expected to be able to ride whatever I wanted on Oct 1st with very low wait times. The longest we ever waited was under an hour for Jungle Cruise. Everything else we walked on or waited 15 minutes tops. All the parks were great.
Of course we skipped the REALLY BIG ATTRACTION: The Emporium. On October 2nd it was a walk on in the late afternoon.
Sad to see people walking in and out of MK to pick up extra free posters which are now selling on ebay for $50 and up.
We also did not make it into the Emporium on October 1. Everything else going relatively smoothly–all things considered–more than made up for it. (Plus, by that point, we had already bought more than enough merchandise at the Marketplace Co-Op at Disney Springs.)
Hope you had a great trip!
Let’s hope that Genie+ will discourage people to get into the parks. Is it possible locals have tried to sneak in a few more visits before its launch and wait times might actually decrease?
I’ve been to Disneyland Paris last week after nearly two years and the lack of free FP has been a real hit on the quality of the experience. To the point I’ve decided to not go for a while: there is no point for me (past frequent visitor) to go and have to pay to ride Big Thunder Mountains for the 100th time.
“Is it possible locals have tried to sneak in a few more visits before its launch and wait times might actually decrease?”
That is definitely possible. There is so much uncertainty with all of this that I don’t think we’re going to know how it all shakes out until early 2022.
There are clear conclusions that I’m willing to draw–like usage will be far below FastPass+ levels–but many more things I suspect to varying degrees, but am not putting out there just yet because it’s premature.
It’ll be interesting to see play out.
I was there the 13th-16th at all 4 parks. I would put crowds highest at HS. Wait time when we got in line for Rise of the Resistance was 155 minutes. Actual wait time was 160 minutes. It was a brutal wait with little shade as they snaked us in and around the land. Epcot on Friday was packed as well but wait times were not horrible. Test Track was usually hovering around 60-80 minutes. It appeared most were there to eat and drink. AK and MK were busy but not insanely so. Wait times on everything were not bad except Seven Dwarfs and Flight of Passage.
The lightning lanes were getting business but they were not supposed to be open yet. A cast member told us it was for people with disabilities, yet there were many in wheelchairs with obvious disabilities waiting in the standby lines? Not sure what was happening there.
It was hot for mid October in Orlando at 90 degrees last week, but overall we had a good time. Unfortunately, not many more trips in our future as the nickel and diming and costs have gone through the roof as of late.
Thanks for sharing your report!
Those lines (FastPass and now Lightning Lanes) have been in use since reopening for VIP guests, Club 33, and DAS. I assume (and hope!) that they are also being used for Genie+ testing, but there have been no leaks/rumors of that actually occurring.
We were just there last week, one day at animal kingdom, two at magic and one day at Hollywood. Crowds were very low, with wait times listed on some rides as 60 minutes but in actuality were more like 30. An employee said the reason they post it was to force crowds to other areas of park so people don’t crowd the more popular rides. Longest was ride of the resistance at one hour and twenty and avatar was sixty but many were at twenty to thirty. Most parks looked empty except Hollywood which always looks crowded
“An employee said the reason they post it was to force crowds to other areas of park so people don’t crowd the more popular rides.”
That’s correct–and it’s also an underpromise, overdeliver type of thing. Guests respond better to wait times that are shorter than expected rather than longer than expected.
I’m eagerly awaiting some actual data about the impact of genie+. I don’t know how many guests are the long stay or big family types, but the costs for them would add up very quickly. It seems unlikely the majority would be eager to sign up.
Right now for my purposes, DHS is the one park I’m considering purchasing it for, though I haven’t fully thought it out yet. If no one else really uses it,
there’s no need though! Conversely, if everyone else signs up, the benefits could tank. I wonder if there’s a cap on how many guests can purchase.
Thanks for the insights!
“I wonder if there’s a cap on how many guests can purchase.”
There is not.
My guess is that Magic Kingdom will see the highest percentage of guest purchases, followed by DHS. What those percentages are is anyone’s guess at this point.
Hi Tom, you mention that viewing space for Harmonious and Disney Enchantment is filling up in advance, just how much before showtime do things start to get bad? If I wanted a prime viewing spot for Harmonious on a weekday how far in advance should I begin looking for one?
That is already starting to slow down, but I’d say 45 minutes is about ideal.
If you want a perfect front row angle, perhaps more. If you’re content with a good view from within one of the pavilions (e.g. Japan), you can still show up at the last minute.