Spring Break Crowd Predictions for Disney World
It’s no secret that spring break is busy at Walt Disney World. Crowd levels increase during these school holidays, normally culminating with the peak week of Easter. That holiday has some of the year’s highest wait times, attendance, and congestion in Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom, and Hollywood Studios–but it’s not the only week of heavy crowds.
While spring break “season” kicks off in early March as universities, colleges, and K-12 school systems take their 1-2 week breaks, not all dates within that range are equally crowded. To the contrary, as covered in our Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, some dates that fall within traditional spring break season are pretty good times to visit.
Our goals with this post are highlighting some of the recent crowd levels at Walt Disney World, looking at changes to park hours, analyzing general travel trends for spring break, and trying to predict which dates will be “red flags” on Walt Disney World crowd calendar for March and April…
If you don’t already have Disney Park Pass reservations, hope you like EPCOT! (Or Animal Kingdom, but only on some days.) For the next two weeks, Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios are fully booked across all three buckets of Park Passes for many days.
On a positive note, Walt Disney World has been extending park hours for March and April, beginning with all dates the first two weeks of the month, with even longer hours Friday through Sunday. This wasn’t particularly noteworthy, as this has been happening with consistency for the last several months.
Walt Disney World releases boilerplate hours with Magic Kingdom closing at 9 pm, EPCOT and DHS at 9 pm, and Animal Kingdom at 7 pm, and then extends those closings as travel dates draw nearer.
For most of March, hours have been extended pretty significantly. Magic Kingdom is closing at 11 pm, and the other three parks have all had their opening times moved much earlier.
All of this is much easier to visualize on the DisneyWorld.com calendar’s month view. So…what gives? Why has Walt Disney World added so many hours for March?
The most straightforward explanation is that this is the week of spring break for both Osceola and Orange Counties, which are the districts in Central Florida that call Walt Disney World home. Both districts list March 14-18 as their spring breaks. Additionally, the Orange County School District calendar has March 11 as a student holiday/teacher workday.
Even if no other district in the entire United States had spring break that week, it would be incredibly busy at Walt Disney World due to those two local school systems. As we’ve seen time and time again in the last few years, holiday breaks in Orange and Osceola Counties have significant impacts on attendance at Walt Disney World. And in actuality, many other school districts around the United States will also have breaks coinciding with this same week.
We don’t have the time, resources, or inclination to comb through the schedules of every single school district in the United States. If we did, it would probably reveal a range of breaks in the next two months, with the bulk from mid-March through early April.
With that said, there are a several specific districts in Florida that are among the largest in the country and have an outsized impact on attendance at Walt Disney World. In a normal year, those districts and their respective spring breaks around the following timeframes:
- Miami-Dade County Public Schools: March 29 to April 2
- Broward County Public Schools: March 19-26
- Hillsborough County Public Schools: March 15-19
- Palm Beach County Public Schools: March 15-19
- Duval County Public Schools: March 8-12
Here are other major school districts and their normal spring break dates that could significantly impact crowd levels at Walt Disney World:
- Houston Independent School District: March 15-19
- Dallas Independent School District: March 15-19
- Gwinnett County Public Schools: April 5-9
- Chicago Public Schools: March 29 to April 2
- Fairfax County Public Schools: March 29 to April 2
Again, this is not an exhaustive list of spring break schedules, and these districts have not been updated for 2023, so the precise dates are likely +/- 1 day. These 12 school districts were selected because they’re among the country’s largest districts that are either near Walt Disney World or feed heavily into visitor demographics. That’s why Chicago is listed but Los Angeles Unified, Clark County (Nevada), and Honolulu’s school districts are not.
Additionally, our focus here is on K-12 school districts, but many universities have cancelled or modified their spring breaks. (Colleges usually have less of an impact on Walt Disney World crowds due to age demographics.) Notable examples include Florida State University, Ohio State University, Arizona State University, Boston University, and the University of Michigan. At these schools, students will receive several one-day “well-being breaks” without any scheduled academic activities.
It’s entirely possible that some K-12 school districts on the above list also could’ve cancelled their spring breaks. I took the effort to find the official calendar for each of the aforementioned districts, but cannot confirm they haven’t modified their plans since publishing those.
As you can see from the above lists, half of the major school districts we’ve targeted have their spring breaks March 14-18. Suffice to say, our expectation is that this ends up being the busiest week of March or April at Walt Disney World. We anticipate it being even busier than the week of Easter.
On a related note, several readers have asked what we expect Walt Disney World will do to celebrate Easter. Probably nothing aside from a few desserts, but that’s just our guess–no official announcement has been made.
As such, our prediction is pretty much a repeat of Mardi Gras Crowds at Walt Disney World. Just replace all of the references to “Mardi Gras” with “Spring Break” and that more or less is our forward-looking prediction.
In particular, we forecast that March 11 through March 20 will be the busiest week of the quarter, and one of the worst 5 weeks of the entire year at Walt Disney World. We highly recommended anyone with flexibility avoid those travel dates.
Beyond that, don’t be surprised if the entirety of spring break is busier than normal at Walt Disney World. For one thing, remote work and learning are a game-changer on this front, and make it easier for guests to take “hybrid” work/play trips to Walt Disney World. This phenomenon is hardly unique to spring break, but it could be especially pronounced in the coming couple of months as more people look for a reprieve from harsher than normal winters.
Officials in South Florida are preparing for an influx of visitors in March and April, with hotel bookings already up 20% year over year. Obviously, Walt Disney World is a bit different than the beach cities, but we would anticipate similar travel trends.
Intuitively, this makes sense. Florida is always a popular spring break destination thanks to its warm weather, which may be even more attractive than normal. Additionally, Florida has garnered nationwide headlines for the last couple of years as the highest-profile state that has been “fully reopened.” While that will cause some potential visitors to steer clear of Florida, it will attract many others–including both those who have been vaccinated and those who are just generally fatigued with restrictions.
As we’ve pointed out several times, Walt Disney World is taking a more conservative and cautious approach (as are many businesses) than Florida as a whole. That doesn’t mean visitors to the state will actively avoid the Walt Disney World. during spring break trips. Some will, but many won’t know until arrival and others won’t care.
Overall, that’s about what you can expect to experience during Spring Break at Walt Disney World. To summarize, our prediction is elevated ‘feels like’ crowds from around March 11 to April 18. The worst of those crowds will almost certainly be March 11-20, 2022.
Following that, March 27 to April 3 will also be another bad week because of another runDisney event, and then the week of Easter will be even worse. We’d actively avoid those dates if at all possible, or at least leverage our Walt Disney World Park Itineraries to beat the crowds. Arriving early and having sound strategy is as important as choosing the “right” dates to visit.
Outside of those couple weeks, we wouldn’t necessarily avoid spring break season–just be aware that attendance levels will be higher than they’ve been during the January and February off-season (minus Mardi Gras). As always, crowd levels at Walt Disney World are becoming increasingly difficult to predict and still surprise us from time to time. Nevertheless, we’re reasonably confident in this spring break forecast.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during spring break season in the past? What did you think of the crowds? Are you visiting this year for Easter or spring break? Any other major school districts having spring breaks during these windows? Anything else we missed that could impact crowds during March and April? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our Spring Break Crowd Forecast for Walt Disney World? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
When you say “week of Easter 2022,” do you mean the week prior to or after Easter Sunday (so like April 10-17 or April 17-24)? We have a trip planned where we are arriving on Easter Sunday and staying through that entire week, leaving on the 24th, so I’m just trying to mentally prepare myself for what to expect.
Ha I’d love to know as well, we’ll be there the same time.
I just got back from Disneyworld and had a great time. Is less open? Yes, but not too awful an impact. Stayed at Jambo house which appeared to be only open to DVC as lights were only on on the 5th floor. No stores or anything but the pool was open as well as everything at Kadani. My hubby and I were in the parks for 3 days (mk, ak, hs, and e) and found long lines that generally moved fast (except Dinosaur. Felt like hours, but it was just 1). Disney is doing a great job with having people masked and distanced. Tiffins is open (1st time, amazing melt in your mouth short ribs, no knife needed, with a wonderful mix of flavors.). Fyi, you may have already heard, but the bus driver for Magical Express said that Mears has already arranged for leasing the airport space next year and will still run the service; it just won’t be called Disney Magical Express. Of course there will be a fee, but it is such a great service I can’t imagine not using it. A HS employee said the whole resort is completely booked for next week. Oh! Got on RotR!!! Missed the morning queue, but made the afternoon HS guests only queue. (Join back join back join back starting about 30 seconds before 1 until I got in). Very nifty experience.
Awesome thanks for the update on the Magical Express, although there will be a fee, I’m sure it’ll be more competitive than a taxi or Uber. I said here after our December 21 trip we would not be returning until fast pass was open again and only go to Universal who I think it’s handling it better. However my 13 year old begged me & you know they’re only young once so the kid in me said yes. I hope I don’t regret it but I know pirates & the like will be 70 plus minutes. I did however buy park hopper to give us options. At least to escape to Epcot for a drink and a taste of different goodies…
Do you think Disney will increase the max capacity to 45 or even 50% soon considering the lift on restrictions in many states, the opportunity for Disney to make up some revenue or at least open up more attractions & restaurants within WDW to allow those of us who already booked our Spring Break vacation a 2nd chance to purchase our tickets??
Great update, thank you!! Given the latest data, would you still advocate booking DHS park pass reservations for all days when you’re planning on visiting Animal Kingdom or EPCOT, in addition to your dedicated DHS day?
We did spring break level 9/10 crowds a few years ago with a 18 month old, 7, and ten year olds. We had a great time! First, get out of your head that you can do all of the attractions at each park. Set low expectations. You just can’t do it all. Get to the park 30 minutes before rope drop and do as many popular attractions as you can before noon. Midday, at MK do Tom Sawyer’s Island, Enchanted Tiki Room, etc.
If you don’t have ADRs, and you will be eating counter service plan on eating outside of regular meal times. Think lunch at 10:30 or 2:00. Dinner at 4:00 or 8:00. I love Tom’s advice of going out MK or Epcot to the resorts for meals or breaks.
You can still have a great trip!
Great advice. Also for food WDW doing mobile ordering now at several places thru dis experience app. When you arrive, food is ready and they make sure there’s a table available.
Excellent Advice!
I am a college professor here in Pennsylvania. Our winter break was extended by seven days and our spring break has been canceled.
The college was trying to prevent travel in the middle of the semester to help mitigate the need for mass quarantines after the usual break.
We still end in May on the “normal” scheduled date. Many PA colleges are also following this procedure.
Stay safe and stay healthy everyone. Normalcy will someday return.
Also a heads up- NYC and Long Island public schools have spring break March 29-April 2/5. That should also impact crowds.
We were at the parks a few weeks ago. We wanted a last minute day at the parks but all showed no available passes. I kept trying and refreshing and I was able book 3 park passes. I’m thinking they open up availability the same day?
More likely someone cancelled to change their plans and go to a different park or just have a resort day or go somewhere else (eg universal) that day. They have not been holding back availability for same day arrivals–to the contrary have been posting signs at the parking lot entrances that parks are fully booked for the day.
Hi Tom, thanks for the blog post! We have a trip planned for March 15-18, but didn’t book a park reservation for Epcot. Do you still think we would be able to park hop to Epcot on one of those four days or is likely to be at full capacity all day? Thank you!!
I was just there and hopped over to Epcot 2 days. Res is for the 1st park and hopping doesn’t start til 2 pm. Fwiw
With the parks at capacity most days do you think park hoping will still be allowed? Now sure how that works nowadays. Going later this week and hoping to hot to Epcot quite a few times.
You cannot enter a second park until you enter the park where you had your park reservation for the day. You cannot enter the second park until after 2PM. You cannot enter your choice of a second park unless it still has vacancy available. You cannot try for a spot in ROTR at Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge if you didn’t pick DHS for your park reservation for that day. You need to have a ticket that allows park hopping. If you have an AP, you can park hop. If you bought a basic ticket and did not pay to park hop, you cannot park hop.
Dial the Park Hopper Hotline number (407) 560-5000 at any time to find out if the park you want to hop to is at capacity or not.
Epcot usually has lots of space. But a dining ADR will not get you entrance to a second park if it is full.
DebC awesome info right there, bravo!
Texas resident here… most TX school districts will NOT be cancelling spring break to make up the winter storm, as there is a waiver process in which districts can petition the state to not be required to make up the time in extenuating circumstances. We’re headed to Orlando early next week… wish we could have gone last fall like we’d originally planned.
Thanks Tom! My (adult) son and I are both teachers in CA, and the only time *we* could go because of our Spring Breaks is March 22-26. So we know it will be suboptimal, but we are hoping maybe that week won’t be a total disaster….
Tom, I’m locked into the worst week possible it seems – next week. I’m not even sure if I’m looking forward to it anymore. Can I hire you in the same sort of role as a fishing or hunting guide? And if not, can you talk me back into the anticipation?
Hi Tom!
According to your dates to avoid, do you think the water parks will be AS bad to visit? Im looking at a March 25-28 visit.
What do we think about the 2-3 weeks AFTER spring break? We’re contemplating the last week of April. Any predictions for that week?
Hi Tom,
We are going from March 7-11 and have Hollywood Studios reserved on March 8. When you say get there early, how early do you mean? Hollywood Studios opens at 10:00am that day. Should we be there by 8:00?
Memphis, Tenneesse schools also have spring break March 15-19. I’m so glad I read your blog a few months back. I decided to change our trip and pull my kids out a few days early to go March 9-14. 🙂 Thank you Tom!
Tom, excellent thorough article. Great work!!
Going April 10 – 15th and hoping to find a sweet spot between Easter crowds and the left over run disney hold outs. Thanks for a great post as always!
Love your blog! I’ve been reading it for years and it’s my go-to place for tips and information. We’re in CyFair ISD which is on the Northwest side of the greater-Houston area. Our school district received an emergency waiver for the missed school days so we won’t be making them up.