Winter Is Not Off-Season at Disney World
During our visits to Walt Disney World thus far in Winter 2022, we’ve encountered moderate to high crowds and wait times. This has been the case across the board at Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and especially Epcot for Festival of the Arts. This post will take a look at these “off-season” attendance trends and attempt to explain some of what’s happening.
For starters, we’ve heard a lot of frustration from returning Walt Disney World visitors in the last month, many of whom shared sentiment along the lines of “crowds were way worse than anyone predicted,” “winter used to be off-season, but not anymore,” or “we’ve gone every year in January/February and have never seen anything this bad. It’s worse than the holidays.”
Some of this is accurate, some is hyperbole, and some reflects the continued chasm between congestion or “feels like” crowds and wait times, which are the standard measurement used for crowd calendars. Fair warning: if you’ve been following our reports, predictions, or crowd calendars from the last couple months, a lot of this is going to be redundant…
To that point, we did predict exactly what is happening right now. From our 2022 Epcot Festival of Arts Dates, Details & Crowd Predictions, published on October 22, 2021:
“It might seem like an eternity ago now, but [crowds] were pretty bad for the first three months of last year before everything fell apart and Walt Disney World closed. (For a refresher, read Peak Crowds in Winter “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World.)
When the 2021 Epcot Festival of the Arts was announced last October, we predicted that those crowds would not materialize. That prediction ended up being incredibly accurate, which we mention here not so much as a victory lap, but because we’re anticipating the opposite of that once again for the 2022 Epcot Festival of the Arts.
It’s likely that 2022 will be a very different story. As discussed in Reopening of International Travel’s Impact on Walt Disney World Crowds, there’s likely to be a lag between the November lifting of the border closure and significant international travel. I would expect that to start in January and February, with a significant spike in the number of foreign visitors to the parks.
Additionally, runDisney is back with races in January and February. Conventions and youth sporting events are both returning. On top of that, there are domestic guests who haven’t been able to book hotel reservations or score discounts for the first three months of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Others might remember how attractive January and February were this year, and expect a repeat of that without considering why 2022 will probably be different.
Crowds have been notoriously unpredictable for the last year-plus, but all signs point to January and February 2022 being a reversion to normal at best, and an exaggerated version of early last year at worst. If I had to bet on crowds being bad or good at this point–with no ‘in between’ option or additional nuance–I’d choose bad.”
Not many people read that post (apparently Festival of the Arts isn’t an exciting topic around Halloween!), so it’s understandable if you missed it. That also predated the Omicron variant throwing a monkey wrench into things, so forecasts could’ve changed following that. However, ours did not.
I’m not going to copy and paste the whole thing, but our 2022 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars (updated January 1, 2022) explained why Omicron was unlikely to put a dent in crowds, which would still be elevated as compared to a normal winter. We also adjusted individual crowd calendars upwards for January, February, and March 2022, while warning in a number of other posts that this winter could be bad and catch many fans by surprise.
Beyond this, it’s fair to point out that the only quiet winter in the last several years was last year–an anomaly driven by the holiday surge and just less travel in general in the months following reopening. Even in our post assessing winter crowds back in February 2020, we wrote the following:
“This is hardly a new development. January and February have seen steadily increasing crowds for the last few years, with a pronounced spike two years ago. At that point, data showed wait times were up over 20% year over year, which was due to a variety of factors. It’s safe to say that January and February 2020 have been up once again.
It’s also true that Walt Disney World’s annual visitor numbers have increased for the last decade by 1% to 5% per year. While it’s impossible to say in which months the largest increases are occurring, it’s pretty safe to surmise that summer is actually decreasing. This means that other months are picking up the slack, and then some. Chief among those months are undoubtedly the winter, which used to see off-season lows but now feel closer to peak season.”
In other words, current crowds and wait times were all foreseeable to at least some degree unless your expectations were based on last year’s anomaly or pre-2018 data. In normal times, there has not been an actual winter “off-season” at Walt Disney World since 2017.
The point is that we’ve seen this before and will see it again in the winter months that once were off-season. As Walt Disney World becomes increasingly savvy at spreading attendance across the calendar, about the only month that’s safe (for now?!) is September. For a variety of factors, we actually expect that to remain true for the foreseeable future, unless or until Disney gets really clever with crowd redistribution.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the January 2022 data…
We’ll start with a high level look at weekly wait time averages across the entirety of Walt Disney World. (As always, all graphs and wait time stats courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
The highest crowds on the right side are the weeks of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s. After that, there’s a gradual drop-off with the last three weeks of January 2022 (minus MLK Day Weekend) having crowds averaging out to 7/10 on the crowd calendar. However, that’s not the full story…
Breaking crowd levels down by park, we’ll start with Magic Kingdom. Wait times have been more of a roller coaster the last few weeks, with January 24 actually being the worst/busiest day in the last year, surpassing previous peaks in summer and the holiday season. The reason for this is simple: Magic Kingdom closed at 4:30 pm the following day.
Whenever that happens, the days before and after are markedly busier. For years, this is why we’ve encouraged you to do Magic Kingdom during the day on Halloween and Christmas party nights rather than their off days when hours are longer. (Saturday is always a big red flag during party season.)
Warning: Magic Kingdom closes at 4:30 pm again on February 8, 2022. Go to MK on that day and NOT on February 7 or February 9, 2022.
You will have a better experience and get more done with the 4:30 pm closing, and that’s even if you cannot Park Hop elsewhere after Magic Kingdom closes. If you can, starting the day at MK on February 8 is a no-brainer. (Looking forward a bit further, the same goes for DHS on April 6, 2022.)
Above is a look at Magic Kingdom average daily wait times by attraction for the entire month of January 2022. Here are the specific numbers for the most popular attractions:
- Seven Dwarfs Mine Train: 95 minutes
- Peter Pan’s Flight: 81 minutes
- Jungle Cruise: 73 minutes
- Splash Mountain: 60 minutes*
- Space Mountain: 58 minutes
- Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: 52 minutes
- Haunted Mansion: 51 minutes
*Splash Mountain closed for refurbishment right after the peak holiday crowds ended, distorting its average relative to other attractions. Were it open for the current cold weather, there’s no way it’d even crack the top 10.
Animal Kingdom wait times paint a different picture–one of a more laid back landscape, if you will–with wait times having fallen off significantly since January 9.
There are still some 7/10 and 8/10 crowd levels, but also several 4/10 to 6/10 days. Animal Kingdom definitely felt a lot “sleepier” than the other parks during our January visits.
Then there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. After colossal crowds throughout the holiday season, it’s now “only” averaging 7/10 to 9/10 crowd levels. Downright delightful by comparison!
It’s doubtful that anyone in the park would agree with that assessment. Hollywood Studios is unpleasant when wait times are 8/10–it’s downright miserable at 10/10. DHS simply cannot absorb crowds with its current lineup, and “feels like” crowds are pretty bad once the crowd level is at 6/10 or above.
The return of Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular hasn’t really moved the needle on this, but mostly because it doesn’t post a wait time. What should help is the return of Fantasmic, which we think will be coming back before Easter.
The reason Fantasmic will make a bigger difference is because it’ll spread crowds throughout the day at DHS. As we’ve noted on several occasions, wait times peak earlier at Disney’s Hollywood Studios than any other park at Walt Disney World, and the last few hours can be blissful. Selfishly, we’d like for this to continue as we often pop-in to DHS at the end of the evening. However, we’d far prefer a better park experience for all–and Fantasmic’s reopening will most likely be the turning point on that.
Continuing to Epcot, which is a bit misleading. You’ll notice these bottom out in the 3/10 crowd level range right after the Walt Disney World Marathon. In part, this is because schools went go back into session and Festival of the Arts hadn’t yet started, so locals weren’t visiting Epcot in as large of numbers. As we’ve seen in the past, the behavior of Floridians has a disproportionate impact on Epcot.
However, it’s also because Thrill-Data didn’t catch the change of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure from a virtual queue to standby line, so its (high) wait times aren’t included at all. Once those started being tracked, and Epcot’s Festival of the Arts started, crowd levels rose back to the 7/10 to 8/10 range.
As always, “feels like” crowds at Epcot–especially in World Showcase–are always worse on weekends and evenings. We spent a ton of time at Epcot in January and it almost always felt more congested than crowd calendars reflect. (Except on weekday mornings.) We’ve said it before, but wait time data simply does not tell the full story–or even the best story–when it comes to Epcot. There are simply too few rides and too many other reasons why people visit Epcot.
Generally speaking, wait times are not conclusive of attendance. There are several other variables that can impact “feels like” crowds, from festivals at Epcot to weather to ride breakdowns to operational efficiency to staffing shortages to not everything being open. Across the board, “feels like” crowds right now tend to be worse than wait times (and even wait times are elevated above raw attendance, since the parks aren’t ‘soaking up’ guests as well as normal).
It’s probably worth taking a look at ride data for Epcot, since we now have it for Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure.
Unsurprisingly, that’s the longest wait time in the park–but not that much worse than Frozen Ever After. For January, Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure averaged 81 minutes, Frozen Ever After averaged a 74 minute wait, Test Track was at 56 minutes, and Soarin’ Around the World averaged a 36 minute posted wait time. Everything else was under 20 minutes, on average. As we’ve mentioned before, Future World becomes a ghost town after 8 pm and ~95% of the guests in Epcot all cram into World Showcase.
Ultimately, the last three weeks at Walt Disney World were 7/10, 7/10, and 8/10 on the crowd calendar, respectively. January 2022 as a whole was an 8/10, owing largely to the first week of the month and MLK Day Weekend. That’s better than both last November and December, but far worse than August through October.
Our expectation is for February 2022 is more of the same. It’ll likely continue the trend of the last few weeks, with the Presidents’ Day holiday weekend (and to a lesser extent, that entire week) plus Princess Half Marathon Weekend and the lead-up to Mardi Gras all seeing spikes similar to last month’s MLK Day Weekend. For more predictions, see our February 2022 Crowd Calendar.) The bottom line is that we aren’t predicting February 2022 to be the off-season at Walt Disney World, but then again, we never were. Ditto February 2023.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World thus far in Winter 2022? Have you been surprised by the “off-season” attendance the last two months? Have you encountered ‘dead’ days during this time? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the crowds? If you visited WDW during January or February 2018-2020, what was your experience with wait times then? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Hi Tom,
After reading this update, I am now doubting my plan. I have known about the early closing for some time and debated on changing our plans. We are there 2/5-2/12 and do not have hoppers. Doing 5 park days (2 at MK, 1 at the others). I didn’t want to do MK back to back and didn’t want to do it on the weekend so my plan was AK on 2/6, MK on 2/7, Epcot 2/8, break on 2/9, HS on 2/10, and back to MK on 2/11. Should I shift the start of our trip to be MK on 2/6 (even though it is a Sunday), Epcot on 2/7, break on 2/8, then AK on 2/9? Thinking the crowds at the other 3 parks will be very busy on the day of MK’s early close. What do you think? Should I leave original plan? I have ADR’s I will have to cancel but not too worried about those if it means maybe less crowds.
We were at MK on Jan. 25th when the park closed @ 4:30. I planned this on purpose thinking people might not want to pay for a ticket that wasn’t a full day. This was our third park day and I knew our kids would be a little worn out. Crowds at DHS (the day before) seemed really high. The only rides we waited some time for were 7 Dwarfs Mine Train -45 min. & Haunted Mansion – 30 min. Thunder Mountain RR 15min. Space Mountain was 10 min. so kids rode 3x in a row! Walked right on Carousel,, Mad Hatter, Barnstormer, Astro, Buzz, & Speedway. The day was a little rainy and cool, but fine. We rode more rides in less time than the previous days at DHS & Epcot. Highly recommend this!
We went last year 01/18-01-22 and the weather and crowds were both great. I had no idea low crowds in winter were an anomaly. It was our first time going in January. I guess it makes sense. January is one of the cheaper months as far as park tickets go. Everyone wants a good deal and to save a little money where they can. Not to mention the weather is much more bearable that time of year.
I’ve been watching this trend in alarm for a while now as late January/early February is typically our sweet spot to visit WDW. We’ve not been able to do it since the Arts festival began, and we really, really want to do that. Having missed out on the parks for a number of years now, we hoped to catch the tail end of the 50th anniversary (by which point all the new offerings should be up) in January 2023. Now I’m rethinking that strategy. It’s quite the splurge (time and money) since we live in Asia and I wouldn’t want it to be an intensely crowded experience. Are we better off heading to WDW this October? No Arts festival, of course, but I suppose we have Halloween/Food & Wine to “compensate” …
Ahhhhh — thank you for the explanation of why the Monday, January 24 day was so crazy crowded at Magic Kingdom. We did not anticipate that the closing of Magic Kingdom at 4:30PM the following day was the culprit. The park was basically at capacity. As I noted in another post, we did very well at MK on 1/24, but only by using a strategy of early entry, Genie+, ILL’s, advance Mobile Ordering, and closing the park including the Fireworks After Party, imbibing while the crowds stampeded to the exit.
Me and my 17 yr old daughter going to MK Feb 9th we booked ressies at BOG at 8:45 pm as soon as I seen Park hrs went from 8pm close. Watch the Fireworks then feast then walk out a quiet park and maybe get some great pics! I got us Genie + but have never used it. Been to Disney 3 times so know the ropes for other things just Genie + is new. Been seeing how busy it is so we won’t be surprised lol plan on taking in the park and hopefully getting on Jungle, Pirates, and Haunted with ok waits using Genie .. try out the 50th Anniversary snacks! Taking a Uber there though have not did that before! A any advice on the drop off pick up for that would be good! Hopefully a good day
I read somewhere that it’s recommended you take an Uber to the Contemporary Resort and then walk over to Magic Kingdom (about ten minutes). If you set your destination in Uber just to Walt Disney Magic Kingdom, you’ll get dropped off at the Transportation and Ticket Center and need to hop on the monorail. I’m not sure what a time saver that is, but it at least simplifies the process.
We come from the uk 22nd jan to February 5th, not being allowed on for two years we picked January thinking it would be low season and it has been unbearable like when we go august. DHS is unbearable unless you pay for lightening lanes and the amount we pay to come over from the pond to then not be able get on rides in two hours with young babies is extortion from Disney we had to purchase lightening lane for all day to get on any rides and there was still a couple you couldn’t book because of how busy it is , magic kingdom was similar too I think of it had been summer and the heat it would of been a lot worse for us whether wise .just not right when we spend thousands and thousands to get here and then ripped off to pay more to get on rides and not like we can just come back in a couple weeks to try again. Made the experience unbearable for us not been all bad but not been our best trip when we were looking at Disney’s low season etc
This is probably going to be met with a ton of “You were in Disney World, weren’t you? Stop whining!, but we were there Jan 19 – 28th. The small grands came along, but unless you shelled out more money (we did) to ride the rides without hour long lines, you were out of luck. I feel badly for those people who save and look forward to taking their families for a “once in a lifetime” dream trip and unless you’re willing and able to pay the ransom, you can’t do much. Although the weather seldom made it out of the high 50’s, the crowds were uncomfortable. I think I may be over spending my dollars at Disney World. The greed is thoroughly disgusting. $5.00 for a Coke? Really? Coca Cola literally GIVES them the drink and I’m sure that the cost of the cups is a fraction of that. I stay at DVC resorts, but I’m pretty offended by the fact that ONLY the DVC/high end resorts are allowed early morning entry. Those folks who are only paying $150 – $300 a day? Tough luck to you. We’ve been going for over 40 years. It’s never been cheap, but this trip I felt like I was being robbed at gunpoint–and had a lesser experience in the process.
I don’t think that’s whining at all–to the contrary, the relationship of the consumer to the business is one where feedback like this is appropriate and necessary. Beyond that, your perspective aligns with what we’ve been hearing from a LOT of other readers, unfortunately.
All of this. We went for one day in November during what was otherwise a Universal trip and if you weren’t paying the upcharge for Genie+ and LLs (which we didn’t because it was already $200/person for one day park hoppers), it was a miserable experience. At this point I don’t see us going back to WDW for many years; the value just isn’t there compared to other vacation options (both Universal and non-theme park options).
Tom, I’m glad that our choice to go to MK on Feb 8 seems to have been the right choice. Strategy question – is there a best time to ride Mine Train on a shortened day like that one? My gut is to just race to it at top of Early Entry. I know you suggest hitting up Mine Train right at closing but something tells me crowds won’t have thinned at all at closing when closing is 4:30PM.
There’s no precedent for doing it on a day like this, but I think you’re probably right. I would *still* be inclined to do it at the very end of the day myself, if only because that extends the day and gives me a buffer between the exodus of people and dealing with transportation. YMMV.
We we’re just at Disney Jan 22-30th, also hoping for low crowds. We were in crowds at studios the day the MK closed earlier but then hopper over the MK at two and rode a ton! Totally worth going even the day it closed early. I bet most people who didn’t have hoppers wouldn’t choose to go to a park that closed early. We rode the mining ride before closing one evening. That seemed like the best time. We did early entry one day and were in fantasyland half hour early and the line for the mining ride was unreal. I’d second later evening.
I was there mid-February 2020, prior to the pandemic shutdowns, and the crowds were INSANE. This year I went the week after the marathon and the crowds were better but the fact is, you are right, January & February are not off-season. Next time I’m going to try September…
Yes, runDisney’s January weekend has boosted crowds for quite some time. Probably the best way to avoid crowds outside summer is to go during the week, based on all of those FL ticket deals.
Did starting the Food and Wine Festival in July last year have any effect on September crowds?
We are currently at Disney (1/29-2/6). I have been twice before and both times in September. The cross and wait times have been unbearable for me personally. Waiting an hour and a half to go on a ride I’ve already experienced seems like a complete waste. Everything is so much less fun than it used to be also, with so many perks, both big and small, having disappeared. I am wishing I had saved my money and time and all the headaches and chosen a different vacation. Off to Universal tomorrow, crossing our fingers that it is slightly less crowded. Lesson learned. If anyone asked me now I would say don’t bother with a Disney vacation, it’s not worth it. And it hurts my heart to say that.
Good choice, we went to Universal yesterday (1/31/22) and used the Express Pass. We had a very enjoyable day at a reasonable pace . We didn’t arrive until Noon and got to do everything we wanted . We have a day planned at MK and now wish we had passed on a Disney day.
I really am beginning to think that we have seen the end of “The Off Season” as we all used to know it. Even only a few years ago, September and October were generally not insanely crowded, and was our families favorite time to go. Unfortunately, with high school on the horizon, this years trip will be the third week of August. I’m hoping that the brutal, oppressive, asphalt melting heat will keep the crowds away. At least well have the pool at the Poly. God help us
“I really am beginning to think that we have seen the end of ‘The Off Season’ as we all used to know it.”
Yeah, probably.
One thing to keep in mind is that Walt Disney World attendance (for 2019–the last full normal year) increased by over 10 million guests as compared to a decade earlier. So it’s safe to say that even “low” crowds in normal times now are higher than “moderate” crowds a decade ago.
For a while, October was the fastest growing month thanks to WDW aggressively going after conventions and group bookings. They managed to turn that from off-season to a relatively busy month, and then the same happened with Jan/Feb. Due to school schedules, hurricane season, and generally unpleasant weather, I don’t see the same happening with late August through September. Who knows, though!
@Bella, due to my kids’ schedules, my family typically takes our longer trips in those last 1-2 weeks leading into Labor Day. I was also just in Disney World for that cold and rainy weekend of 1/22-1/23. If I had the option, schedule-wise, I would HANDS DOWN take the frigid January temps over the misery of those August days. You can layer up, drink hot chocolates, use hand warmers and rain gear to get you through the January days, but there is comparatively little relief to be had from the perpetual steam-room experience of Disney World in August. 90+ degrees, from morning to night, with 70-100% humidity. Ugh. It’s so physically draining. Staking out a spot for the nighttime shows is painful, because even after the sun goes down, the sidewalks radiate stored heat for hours. The craziest part is having to carry around a warm sweater all day, because the indoor restaurants are kept so cold that we start shivering in our humidity and sweat-dampened clothes! If you have the option, I’d recommend checking out some less extreme weather months for your next trip! 🙂
Due to our kids school schedules it will only be possible in mid January or late August. I thought I believed I’d rather be too cold than too hot but I was so cold I was dreaming of being painfully overheated. In reality I know 90s and humid can be much worse. I have found those days to be excellent for the water parks though!
@Bella, I had forgotten the water parks! We all know the truth – a rough day in Disney World still trumps most days elsewhere. I hope you have a great trip, whenever you go!
We were there during the first week in December, very tolerable during the week, busy on weekends. Was able to do short waits (10 minutes) for Big Thunder railroad for kidney stone elimination. Ride the last cars for 70% success! We were also back for the two weeks in the middle of January. Not as busy except during the run weekend. We simply stayed out of the parks and Figment line. Went to Epcot the following Monday, crowds gone, Figment line less than 35 minutes at 1:30 in the afternoon. Scored two for the kids! Going back the end of February to have hopefully shorter wait times, less people. The crowd levels have changed so much during this time period. Several years ago it was the best time to attend. Getting off of Space Mountain, going through the entire exit and entrance, and getting in the same numbered rocket was amazing and will probably never happen again. The end of January used to be a ghost town feeling with nobody at Magic Kingdom. Then came along, ahem, cough, cough, a Disney blog praising the off season as the time to go. Somebody ruined it for those who knew the secret times to attend. Of course the chipped cups, paid parking, gates (damn gates) didn’t make things better. So now the secrets are out and we still travel at somewhat off times. It’s just not as pleasant as it used to be, but despite complaining we keep coming back. I want to go now while we’re able to walk, not wanting to do a scooter, unless the double wides become available at which point we can plow through the crowds.
“Then came along, ahem, cough, cough, a Disney blog praising the off season as the time to go.”
Ha! Well played.
If this blog’s praises could actually move the needle on…anything…we’d have a new Journey into Imagination and September would be the most crowded month of all! 😉
Glad to hear you had a good time, though!
I was in WDW 1/19-1/23 and had prepared myself for not only massive crowds, but a more expensive, less enjoyable experience, based on so many of the recent comments to Tom and Sarah’s posts. As with most things in life, having lowered expectations allowed for a pleasantly surprising outcome. The crowds were, for sure, way worse than I’ve ever seen in the back half of January, but a few factors balanced this out for us. We had cancelled nearly all our ADRs, due to combined concerns over indoor dining during the Omicron surge and the inflated menu costs. This actually freed up a ton of our time and added to the sense of flexibility park days have taken on since the end of Fastpass+. Genie+, unexpectedly, played really well into our day at Epcot and didn’t work well for us at all at DHS. I think this was more to do with what we prioritized than any inaccuracies in Tom and Sarah’s advice. We ended up spending more time than usual just soaking in the parks’ atmosphere and enjoying our resort. I’d observe that times are hard for people trying to take those once-in-a-lifetime, ride-or-die trips, on both a cost and crowd level. For guests who can assign a higher value to streetmosphere, architecture, music, etc., there is still plenty of enjoyment to be had,
You’re so right in the time spent enjoying your resort and having a more laid back experience. It really makes it more enjoyable verses rushing here and there.
“I’d observe that times are hard for people trying to take those once-in-a-lifetime, ride-or-die trips, on both a cost and crowd level. For guests who can assign a higher value to streetmosphere, architecture, music, etc., there is still plenty of enjoyment to be had”
Agree with all of this. I might strike “streetmosphere” given entertainment cuts, but even Epcot is starting to feel more alive than it has in almost 2 years. Really hoping that by Easter, DHS follows suit!
Good to hear that you had a fun trip! 🙂
Whew! We were at WDW last week, January 23-28. I’m so glad we went to MK on Tuesday. We rode so many rides. We definitely missed the meet and greets. Our three year olds first time was still a success. The Country Bear Jamboree as one of her highlights!
Great to hear that your daughter’s first trip was a success–and also that she’s a genius! 😉
Thanks Tom, your information has been really helpful. We just got back from our first ever trip, 1/23 – 1/29. We were bracing for crowds knowing there is lots of pent up demand to travel, but still were really surprised at the crowd levels. The weather was also colder than anticipated. That being said, we had a great time. I definitely agree with your strategy of going to MK on the days it closes early. We were there on Tuesday 1/25 when it closed at 4:30. It probably helped that it was also raining, but almost everything minus Seven Dwarfs and Peter Pan had a minimal wait by 2pm. We were able to knock everything out, allowing us to switch up our park reservations later in the week and spend an extra day at DHS.
The good weather on 1/24 and bad weather on 1/25 definitely exaggerated the difference in crowd levels between the two days, but you would’ve made the right call regardless! Thanks for sharing your experience.
Hi Tom,
This scares me for the first & second week of May.
What kind of crowds do you see for then?
Thanks,
Julia
I think weekdays through around May 13, 2022 should be moderate or below, and not much worse after that until Memorial Day weekend (which isn’t bad by holiday weekend standards). The reality is that this is pre-summer vacation for most tourists, who aren’t going to take off a few weeks early for vacation.
With that said, I’m not as confident in my summer/fall predictions as I was about January/February. Calling for a spike seemed like a slam dunk given Winter 2020 v. 2021, what people were expecting, etc.
Here’s a we were there and we agree comment!
We were at WDW from 1/20-27, the timeframe our family usually visits approximately every other year. Thanks to you (I had paid attention to your prediction in the fall) I had begun to mentally prepare myself for this scenario. Being WDW veterans we still had a great time (though the weather was also the worst it had ever been) getting lots done early in the day, taking warm up afternoon breaks and closing out the parks in the evenings. Am I starting to think of trying out the last week of August next time? Yes. Yes I am.
Angling to go from one weather extreme to the other, eh? 😉
(Joking aside, I will HAPPILY take the frigid January weather over a normal August. That humidity is brutal!)