Florida COVID Report: Lowest Cases Since Mid-July

Here’s another weekly COVID-19 report with data from Florida and around Walt Disney World as of September 22, 2021. This provides an update on new cases, positivity, hospitalizations, plus commentary from Orange County’s weekly health briefing about the record drop in the last week and potential for a holiday speak. Also, we take a look at what level the numbers need to reach before Walt Disney World considers dropping indoor mask rules.

We’ll start with the latest report from the Florida Department of Health (data through September 16), which shows the another significant drop in new weekly cases at 75,906. This is the first time the state has been under 100,000 since July 16. It’s also less than half of the weekly cases during the bulk of August, when Florida topped 150,000 for several consecutive weeks.

This is not simply a result of reduced testing. Florida’s rolling positivity rate continues to decrease as well, down to 11.2% as of this report. It was at 13.7% the previous week, 15.5% the week before that, and 17.3% the prior week. It had been in the 20% range for several weeks from mid-July through mid-August. This is the lowest Florida’s rolling positivity rate has been since June.

This report shows new cases dropping in the last week among every age range, including a third-straight week of dropping numbers among school age kids eligible for vaccinations. On that note, inoculations also continue to increase among the 12-19 age cohort, crossing the 1 million inoculations threshold.

The highest case numbers are once again occurring in age ranges between 20 and 39 years old. Over 83% of residents above the age of 60 are vaccinated and 76% of those ages 50-59. Weekly numbers now reflect a slowdown in the rate of vaccination among younger age groups. The lowest vaccination rate is among people ages 20-29 at 51%.

Next, more current numbers from the CDC, which reported 6,904 new cases in Florida for September 20, 2021 (the most recent date for which there’s data). That’s the first time Florida has dropped below 10,000 new cases on a non-holiday Monday since July.

Florida’s 6,297 new cases on Sunday is the lowest daily count since July 12. The state’s 7-day average of new cases currently stands at 9,071 (down from 12,660 in last week’s report and 14,297 the week prior). This is the first time Florida’s rolling 7-day average has been below 10k since July 21.

Above is a chart of daily data to put this precipitous decrease into context.

After peaking in late August, daily numbers and the moving average have been falling throughout September. Since the positivity rate is decreasing in tandem with moving numbers, this is not a result of decreased testing. It’s also follows the visible trajectory of every past wave. (For those still skeptical, it’s also a decrease forecast by wastewater surveillance several weeks ago–and that, uh, stuff don’t lie!)

For further insight, the Florida Hospital Association continues to report a decline in new hospitalizations. The total number of hospitalizations as of yesterday is 8,130.

This number is down 20.3% week-over-week, and once again below 10,000. Until early September, that number was above 15,000. It’s now at less than half of the level of the late August peak.

Per numbers from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coronavirus patients accounted for 14.99% of Florida’s inpatient beds (down from 19.25% last week) and 32.84% of ICU beds.

Despite this sharp drop in coronavirus patients, 82.27% of hospital beds in Florida are still in use (down from 84.11% last week). This is likely a mix of standard procedures resuming and the reality that hospitals normally operate at relatively high capacity even under normal circumstances (although that number has dropped in recent decades per CDC data).

Closer to Walt Disney World, AdventHealth Central Florida has moved from yellow to green status, meaning that the hospital system has resumed normal operations. The hospital system was in black status during the August peak, and has since moved down to red, then yellow, and now green status.

Circumstances are similar at Orlando Health, which has likewise resumed normal operations as its number of coronavirus patients has halved in September. Over 90% of the patients hospitalized for COVID-19 at Orlando Health and AdventHealth are unvaccinated.

Florida is still seeing elevated daily death tolls, exceeding the previous highs from January. This is unsurprising, as an increase in deaths typically lags a spike in new cases by several weeks. This has happened consistently everywhere throughout the pandemic, albeit with lower death rates as treatment options have improved.

Current death data is unreliable, but looking backwards two weeks shows a moving average of 272 deaths per day. This number will likely still increase as reporting continues. At present, deaths peaked in late August at around 340 per day. Per Dr. Pino, August was the deadliest month of the entire pandemic in Orange County, and that count continues to increase.

Florida now ranks 25th among states in the U.S. for average daily COVID cases per 100,000 people per data from the New York Times. This is an improvement from the state’s 22nd place ranking last week, and 10th place the week before that. Just last month, Florida held the top spot, accounting for nearly 25% of all cases in the nation at one point.

This also comes as states in the Midwest, Great Plains, and elsewhere are now seeing their own seasonal spikes as Florida is falling, causing it to further move up the comparative rankings. Only a handful of states now rank better than Florida and are also on a downward trajectory. (California is one of them. If you’re debating Disneyland v. WDW, that Orange County is doing very well.)

We continue to receive messages that Florida “stopped counting cases” or “is hiding the true numbers.” These claims continue to be inaccurate. There are no credible claims that Florida is undercounting or underreporting new cases–and this is not borne out by case v. positivity numbers. (If true, this would be an unprecedented feat, coordinated by thousands of individual hospitals, local leaders, and independent data reporting outlets.)

What did happen is that Florida changed its reporting methodology for deaths and those are now retroactively added to the date on which they occurred–not the day they are reported–and can take up to two weeks to be reflected in the CDC data. Consequently, the current 7-day average is low and doesn’t reflect where final daily death numbers will be once tallied in the reported. The aforementioned change arguably lacked transparency and was done to present a better current picture of the pandemic–but the numbers are still accurate and the methodology is widely accepted.

Moving along, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and other local leaders held their latest press conference, which you can view for yourself above. Mayor Demings started with some “good news,” which is that Orange County’s rolling positivity rate continues to decline and is now 11.29%.

Demings continued, “this is much better than where we were not too long ago. At the beginning of August, our positivity rate was 20% or better. So we are effectively half of where we were a month ago–trending truly in the right direction. This validates that our strategy of driving up the rate of vaccinations and increasing testing and also returning to the wearing of facial coverings has worked.”

Demings believes Orange County can hit the target positivity rate of 5% “sooner rather than later” if the aforementioned efforts continue. “If we do these things, this will be the last significant surge of the pandemic,” he said.

“This is largely a pandemic of the unvaccinated in our community,” Demings reiterated. If we continue to increase vaccinations, Orange County will fare much better in the coming weeks and months, he indicated. Demings further expressed that he is “highly encouraged” by the continued rate of vaccinations in Orange County.

Dr. Raul Pino from the Florida Department of Health in Orange County spoke at the press conference, providing further insight. He said that the “county is showing very good data.” The weekly incidence rate is 243 positive cases per 100,000 individuals. This number and new daily case numbers are seeing a sustained decline in addition to positivity rates.

According to Dr. Pino, this past week was the highest drop in week-to-week numbers over the course of the entire pandemic, meaning week 36 to 37 saw a record reduction in cases by 30%. That’s a significant drop for a single week, especially given the decline began two weeks prior so the trajectory was already downward. The most recent single-day positivity rate was 9.3%, so the rolling rate should continue declining at a sharp rate.

Dr. Pino was also asked a number of questions during the Q&A (many relating to local school operations and booster shot eligibility–so beyond the scope of this post). When asked about the Pfizer vaccine’s likely approval for kids ages 5 to 11 next month, he said that “having access to vaccines for that age group is going to mean the beginning of the end of the pandemic.

He noted that about 20-25% of new infections are attributed to that age group. He further went on to explain that this disproportionately high number is because they don’t yet have access to vaccines. “When you open it up to a larger segment of the population, we can be more effective at interfering with transmission,” Dr. Pino said.

Finally, Dr. Pino was asked how the increase in travel will impact case numbers during the holiday season as compared to last year. “This is the time right now to prepare for the holidays that are coming. Meaning we are going to get a series of holidays. Halloween soon…then we Thanksgiving, then Christmas. After all those holidays last year, we experienced a significant increase in the number of cases,” Dr. Pino stated.

“What is different is there was no vaccination at that time, so we are not expecting that would happen at the same level at all. But it’s important for people to know that if you are planning to travel, if you are planning to congregate, if you are planning to see other family members who come to visit and you are not vaccinated, you still have time to be immunized by the holidays so that you are protecting yourself and everyone, and preventing this from becoming another wave,” Dr. Pino said. “There’s some level of concern, but we are in a better position [this holiday season] because of the vaccination rate.”

While the sharp decline throughout Florida is encouraging, Orange County is still in the “high” level of community transmission on the CDC’s Community Transmission Map. If current trends hold, Orange County will move to the “substantial” level in the near future.

With that said, the CDC’s criteria for moving down to the moderate level where face masks are no longer recommended indoors is under 50 total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days and under 8% test positivity during the past 7 days. Even assuming Orange County continues on its record trajectory from last week, it would still be sometime in mid-October before it hits the moderate level.

Walt Disney World reinstated its indoor mask rule with that CDC guidance, so it’s likely Disney won’t lift the rule until Orange County qualifies for the moderate level. It’s also possible Walt Disney World won’t lift the current mask rules until after the holiday season, waiting to see a sustained downturn throughout the United States. If current trends hold, Disneyland would qualify for lifting the rule first, as California’s Orange County already has a qualifying (low level) positivity rate and is just waiting on its case rate to hit the moderate level. It’s worth noting that, previously, Disney changed the rules for both Walt Disney World and Disneyland simultaneously, without regard for the specific circumstances in their respective states and counties.

Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!