Genie+ Buyer Beware: Actual v. Posted Wait Times
Actual versus posted wait times for rides at Walt Disney World has been an “issue” for years. Many fans have reported significant disparities during their days in Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom–and wondering why inaccuracies persist despite this being a known “problem.”
Lightning Lanes have added a new wrinkle to this conversation about posted v. actual wait times at Walt Disney World. (As always, if you’re new to paid FastPass, start by reading our Guide to Genie+ at Walt Disney World & Lightning Lane FAQ.) After all, if guests are paying for Genie+ or ILL to skip a line, don’t they deserve to know how long that wait actually is?
This post will attempt to answer that question, discussing why Walt Disney World has historically inflated wait times and the company’s new “buyer beware” warning in Genie+. We’ll also some strategy, tips, and info for using the wait time disparity to your advantage…
Let’s start with some background into actual versus posted wait times at Walt Disney World. For starters, this is absolutely nothing new. Anyone who has ever visited the parks and used standby lines to a significant degree for a few days can tell you that posted wait times are higher than actual ones more often than not.
During the physical distancing “era” of Walt Disney World’s phased reopening, this practice became even more pronounced. We discussed this many times (see here and here, plus pretty much any park reports). There were some unique wrinkles post-reopening, with a lack of queue space, less predictability, and the unprecedented nature of it all making wait time forecasting more challenging for Disney. The point is that from last July through around this May, posted wait times were the least accurate we had ever seen them–but they’re never anywhere close to 100% accurate.
During normal times, there are several reasons why Walt Disney World deliberately inflates wait times. First, it’s good for guest satisfaction–an extension of the ole “underpromise and overdeliver” mantra. It’s surprisingly simple: guests will be happy if they wait less time than is advertised, but unhappy if they wait longer. Since it’s tough to make predictions that are 100% accurate, it’s better to err on the side of inflation.
This kind of consumer manipulation is incredibly common. We’ve often “joked” that Disney follows the Kohl’s school of pricing–the store where everything is always on sale. Although this year has been an odd outlier, Disney never lowers sticker prices, instead offering aggressive and sometimes illusory discounts for their psychological appeal. Free Dining isn’t really free–it comes with an opportunity cost–but nothing sells better than FREE. Similar idea here. People love it when they think they’re coming out ahead.
Second, wait times themselves are a form of crowd control. This is not a big revelation, but some attractions are more popular than others. If you give 100 guests the choice between Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Country Bear Jamboree without any other constraints, 99 of them are going to make the wrong decision and pick the roller coaster. Sometimes, we all just need a gentle little nudge to do the right thing.
That can come in the form of inflated wait times at popular attractions, which push people towards less popular ones. Everyone has a balking point–a wait that is simply too high to justify the time spent waiting in line–even for their favorite rides. Higher wait times on headliners increase utilization of less popular attractions, making the park more efficient and better able to absorb crowds.
Finally, pumped up wait times offer a variety of other operational advantages. One of these is discouraging abuse of DAS, as those who have sufficient knowledge to abuse that system are also likely aware of inflated wait times. (It’s not a perfect solution and there’s an obvious downside, but there is no perfect solution here.)
Another is clearing the park at the end of the night. A great example of this can be found at the end of our post, Tom’s Day in Magic Kingdom Without Genie+. We got in line for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train shortly before official park closing when the posted wait time was 50 minutes–our actual wait ended up being ~4 minutes. This wasn’t some big goof up; it was by design to discourage day guests from jumping in line at the end of the night so Magic Kingdom could be cleared quicker for the start of Disney After Hours Boo Bash.
In general, we’ve found that posted wait times are most accurate first thing in the morning (presumably in part because posted times are lower and crowds are growing) and least accurate in late morning and then towards the end of the night. Beyond that, more popular rides tend to be bigger culprits–the higher the wait, the less likely it’s accurate.
Fantasyland-style dark rides also tend to see more bloat, which could be because under-promising and over-delivering is especially important to parents with small children? (That’s just a guess.)
One specific example is Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, which is often way off. This could be because it’s brand new, so there’s less historical data, but we’re skeptical.
More likely, it’s because the attraction is prone to breakdowns and delays, so the company is building in a buffer. It’s also worth noting that Rise of the Resistance can be way off in both directions–if there’s a full reset while you’re in line, that otherwise inflated wait could be much lower than what you actually wait.
Over the course of the last 18 months, our experience across all of Walt Disney World has been that actual wait times average about two-thirds to 75% of posted wait times most of the day. That drops to around 50% at night, if not lower. These are averages; we’ve waited significantly less and even sometimes more than posted wait times, too.
Moreover, this is entirely anecdotal and based on our first-hand experiences, but they’re pretty extensive at this point. We’d love to hear generalizations from other regular Walt Disney World visitors about posted v. actual wait times in the last year and beyond in the comments.
This background info is just good knowledge to have that can help you plan and build itineraries. It should also illustrate how inflated posted wait times are actually mutually beneficial for the company and guests–but particularly anyone aware that posted wait times are exaggerated. This is knowledge you can leverage to your strategic advantage–see the above Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at park closing, for example.
We mention this because in the last few weeks we’ve received a ton of reader complaints about inflated posted wait times. It’s not uncommon to get comments about these, but usually it’s in a matter-of-fact or even positive way. More recently, it’s been cynical and negative.
The perspective among some fans has been that Walt Disney World just started inflating wait times this fall ahead of the launch of Genie+ to encourage guests to buy that and Individual Lightning Lanes. People have indicated they’d be mad if they paid to skip the line and then found out the actual wait time was half what was posted. Others have questioned whether Disney had a duty to eliminate inflated wait times or risk claims of fraud, consumer deception, false advertising, etc.
I understand that many of you hate Genie+ and Lightning Lanes–going from free to paid FastPass sucks. But it’s enough to dislike it on principle, and not try and concoct other reasons to loathe Lightning Lanes. That one, very big reason is sufficient for resenting the new system. There’s no need to pile on, I promise. Especially in the case of posted v. actual wait times where it sorta feels like throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Nevertheless, it would seem that Walt Disney World has heard this complaint, as the following is included in the terms & conditions of Genie+ that guests can read before buying:
Of course, no one is going to actually read all of this legalese besides bloggers and other dorks. (No offense, my fellow dorks.) That’s exactly the point, and arguably the goal of “effective” terms & conditions–bog them down with boring boilerplate language and make them tedious to read…so no one does!
This should answer the questions about Walt Disney World’s intentions to continue inflating wait times. Quite simply, the practice is too important operationally and integral to guest satisfaction to stop doing it now. The increased transparency to prospective buyers of Genie+ doesn’t move the needle. And frankly, it shouldn’t.
Ultimately, this is simply CYA language from Disney and is not intended to be brought to the attention of average guests. There’s really no need to do so, since the majority of people purchasing Genie+ or Individual Lightning Lanes will never have any clue as to the posted wait time that they bypassed. The whole goal in buying is to save time; people aren’t going to undercut that by standing outside the ride exit and polling others as they leave about how long they waited.
Overanalyzing the differences between actual and posted wait times is solely the domain of dorks on the internet. Regular park guests do not care beyond the happiness in saving time, whether that result from spending money to bypass the line or “beating” the system by not splurging and still not waiting as long as advertised. On the plus side, us dorks have a strategic advantage in understanding how all of this actually works, leveraging it to our advantage, and continuing to visit Walt Disney World more efficiently. Let’s not get too vocally negative about a practice that benefits us, capisce?
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think about Walt Disney World’s practice of inflating wait times? Think they should be more accurate to actual waits, or do you understand the rationales for inflating them–and appreciate the strategic advantage it confers on knowledgeable guests? What has been your experience with actual v. posted wait times at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with my assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We’ve been to 4 rides at 2 Disney parks. Wait times have far exceeded the posted Wait time.
55min posted at Millennium Falcon, actual 100 min
Others, Animal kingdom, posted 65 min. Actual 105 min.
Mostly nearly twice the posted Wait time. March 9th, 11th
Could only get on 2 rides a day
We were at WDW for two weeks in late January and early February. Have been coming same time for years. Massive crowds this trip. In almost all instances wait times were much longer than posted wait times. It was a frustrating two weeks and we’re not eager to return.
There has always been wait time inflation. I’ve been a regular visitor to WDW since 1973. When MK was the only park, and every attraction required a ticket, wait times were usually at least 1/2 more than actual wait time (i.e. a 60 minute posted time was actually 40 minutes) This was pretty much the rule, and we always figured it was done for the uneducated masses to make them happier. The “formula” seems to have been followed at EPCOT Center, and to a degree at Disney-MGM. When FastPass was introduced it really gummed up the whole system and that’s when queue destruction started to occur. (Nothing like unhappy guests in a line that doesn’t move-let’s let our kids destroy the wall decals or carve initials in the wall.) While this may be an unpopular view, I personally hate any system that features a “fast lane” of any type. Disney used to be the place where it didn’t matter what side of the tracks you lived on….if you could afford to pay the price to get in (or the attraction ticket), you were treated exactly the same as the next guest when it came to queuing for an attraction. (Of course there was the occasional VIP that would sneak in through the exit, but you really didn’t notice them). Back before FP, queues were constantly in motion (with the exception of theater presentations) and the only occasion that would cause a line to stop, was an attraction breakdown. If you were lucky enough to visit before pay-one-price was the norm and A-E tickets were in use, you were treated to the best operations in Disney park history. Ride operatives were encouraged to fill EVERY seat, and keep vehicle dispatches or attraction load periods, as short as possible. The more guests per hour, the more tickets the company sold. It also incentivized park management to update attractions that weren’t pulling their weight, or replace them all together. Hell, I’d love to pay 10 bucks to get into a park, and then $100 for a book of tickets that provided an A-E tiered experience, rather than the P.O.P system that most parks moved to years ago.
So in conclusion, I would agree in your assessments of wait time inflation. Whether the reasons for doing it are the same or different from practices in the past, I don’t know. What I do know, is that the minute FP was introduced, Disney took what they thought was a problem and made it worse. The true fix is to create at least five more “people eating” attractions in each park (without closing anything already open).
This last week the posted wait time has been spot on for me, so I guess more anecdotal evidence to add…although I have found at headline rides, they tend to hold the queue for the last hour of closing and let as many LL people through before emptying the main queue at park close.
Disagree that manipulating guests by actively misleading them is good business practice to benefit the consumer. Seems a strange conclusion, particularly when that misinformation can be leveraged to juice those guests for more money. I understand this practice predates Genie+ and offers other advantages to corporate, but don’t act like Chapek isn’t fully aware that inflated wait times can and will contribute to increased spending on LL.
I’ve got 99 problems, but Country Bears ain’t one…haha! I won’t get to experience Genie, Genie+, and ILS until mid November. Looking forward to deciding for myself if its worth the cost or not. Appreciate this article!
I’ve seen a couple of videos showing the Lightning Lane backed up for what has to be at least an hour, with hardly anyone in the standby lanes. I think Disney can expect to hear a whole lot about that, no matter what they put in their Terms and Conditions.
I completely agree. I was highly discouraged reading this. Why overlook this inflation as a good thing when people needing DAS for very real reasons are greatly impacted? I am beginning to lose faith in any “magic” Disney provided for the disabled community. Spending 3 days, 12 hours per day in a que attempting to get a virtual DAS and then the policy of having to call back each day for another selection showed me they’re not as preferred as once.
Agree with the post. However. The problem will occur if/when Disney starts showing different guests different wait times, in order to take advantage of varying behavioral responses. This, too, would spread guests out more efficiently and is the natural extension of data tracking/algorithms.
Would you feel the same way then?
Would you say Genie+ is worth it this December? I’ll buy it if it seems like it’s packed, but I only used MaxPass at Disneyland when we were passholders when it was real busy and I found it worth it. Genie+ I don’t know. We’ll be there Dec 16-21.
I’ve known of line manipulation for a long time. I went to college near Disneyland so lots of friends were cast members! It was a thing then for sure.
Also I timed the wait and it was about 28 minutes.
A couple weeks ago, for the first time ever in all my many years going to Disneyland, a Cast Member acknowledged wait time manipulation to me. Guardians: Monsters After Dark had a posted wait of 60 minutes, but looked longer, extending way outside of the entryway. I asked the Cast Member at the back of the line if the wait time was really only 60, and he replied “Actually it’s more like 30-35. We have to post a longer wait because otherwise this line would extend too far back into Hollywood Land. There’s just nowhere for the line to go.” I couldn’t believe it – I assumed he must be relatively new because I can’t imagine management condones such acknowledgments to guests. Appreciated his honesty though.
@troy. Genie or genie+? Genie + is not. Genie might be but is not necessary ever. Busy, slow, early hours or after hours, I think it’s been established that genie is a complete non event.
Do you know if Genie is available during after hours events?
Are you saying they have begun inflating wait times even more than before? For those of us who have family members with legitimate disabilities that actually NEED DAS, that is way unfair and just plain wrong, as the DAS return times correspond directly to Disney’s posted wait times. If they decide to post a wait time of 2 hours when it is actually 30 minutes, they are ensuring that people with disabilities will enjoy way less of Disney World than the typical guest. While I realize Disney won their first round in the disability lawsuits against them and perhaps that has emboldened them, it seems like poor public relations at the very least to take actions that will specifically affect this group, not to mention that the case is under appeal (Ct of Appeals decision due any day).