Canadians Are Canceling Disney World Vacations: Here’s How it Impacts Crowds.
Canadians are cancelling trips to Walt Disney World. This addresses that, discussing the possible impacts on attendance and discounts if ongoing tensions continue to boil over and result in further boycotts of the United States by international visitors. (Updated May 1, 2025.)
Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States, with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. According to the U.S. Travel Association, just a 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses.
Not coincidentally, the top 5 most visited states by Canadians are Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas. These states could see disproportionate declines in retail and hospitality revenue as a result. Although it’s difficult to discern what percentage of Walt Disney World guests are Canadian, it’s our strong suspicion that number is also disproportionate. Even more importantly, international visitors as a whole have the highest per-guest spending metrics of all guests.
May 1, 2025 Update: Since we originally reported this story, U.S. trade tensions have only worsened–and with more countries than just Canada. We’ll undoubtedly have more on that in the weeks and months to come, especially if early signs of a slowdown of inbound international tourism actually materialize. For now, we want to share a couple of quick updates.
First, Orlando International Airport has released its March 2025 Airline Activity Report. This shows that international passenger traffic was up 10.4% for the month, while domestic passenger traffic was down 7.1% for a combined decrease of 5.0%. The rolling 12-month total stands at 56.6 million annual passengers.
This is consistent with recent trends, with increasing international travel due to lagging pent-up demand (and expanded capacity) and decreasing domestic travel due to the exhaustion of pent-up demand. I flew through MCO several times in March and April, and it was still busy by historical standards (but slower than I’d seen anytime recently by the tail end of Easter week).
Second, Visit Orlando is reporting that advance hotel reservations from Canadians in the Central Florida region dropped 9% in April compared with the previous year and are down 35.1% for May 2025. However, Visit Orlando’s advance hotel booking data was up for April and May 2025 when taking into account all international and domestic tourists.
Moreover, Orange County’s hotel tax collections hit a record high in February (the most recent month for which data is available), and that is forecast to continue that trend for the foreseeable future due to the opening of new hotels in Orange County and launch of Epic Universe. (Data for March is not yet out, but could be down due to the timing of Easter last year vs. 2025; April and May 2025 were both tracking higher.)
We’re still anticipating a summer slowdown at Walt Disney World, and recent aggressiveness in discounting bears this out. However, the extent of the summer’s softness will likely be dictated more by the domestic market and economic uncertainty than an international drop. And even so, there’s a lag between booking and traveling (see the above numbers–the tensions with Canada started towards the beginning of the year, but are just starting to become pronounced in bookings for May), meaning that even a domestic drop might not be evident until July or beyond.
Unfortunately, Walt Disney World doesn’t release attendance numbers, let alone demographic breakdowns. We do know that international numbers rose 7% about a decade ago because Disney itself reported that. Estimates at that time pegged international tourists as accounting for 18-22% of all guests to Walt Disney World.
Visit Orlando, Florida’s official tourism arm, does release visitation numbers. It’s probably safe to assume that the city’s numbers more or less reflect Walt Disney World’s numbers. Per these numbers, the City Beautiful welcomed 6.13 million international visitors in 2023, an increase of 25% over 2022 numbers.
Canada is Orlando’s top international market, with more than 1.2 million visitors traveling to Orlando in 2023, the highest number from this market in Orlando’s history. The 2023 international visitation numbers represent 94% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels, with Canada, U.K. and Brazil remaining the top three international origin markets to Orlando.
For those who are curious, here’s the country-by-country breakdown:
- Canada: 1,256,000 (↑ 46%) – All-time record-breaking visitation number
- United Kingdom: 877,000 (↑ 8%)
- Brazil: 696,000 (↑ 21%)
- Mexico: 432,000 (↑ 10%)
- Colombia: 302,000 (↑ 5%)
While Visit Orlando hasn’t yet released 2024 data, they predicted an ongoing increase thanks in part to–I kid you not–Country Bear Musical Jamboree. (It’s just one point on a very long list, but I’ll take it. The Canadians have spoken, and they love singing bears! My people.)
We can infer that projections of another record-setting 2024 for travel to Orlando from Canada are probably accurate thanks to monthly data from the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority.
The GOAA reports that international traffic at Orlando International Airport (MCO) was up 11.7% year-over-year in 2024, whereas domestic travel was down 2.6%. This is consistent with expectations about lagged pent-up demand for international travel coinciding with an exhaustion of the same for domestic travel. (It’s the same reason Disney Cruise Line continues to outperform–or at least, one of the reasons.)
Without doing a deep dive, data on the percentage of passengers through MCO from Canada is not readily available, but there’s no reason to believe it materially deviates from the above. You can probably take that 1.25 million number, increase it by 10%, and have a pretty good back-of-napkin estimate of Canadian travelers to Orlando in 2024.
Making a bunch of assumptions given all of the above, we can probably take that a step further and conclude that roughly 3% to 6% of Walt Disney World guests come from Canada. This may not seem like much, but again, keep in mind that their duration of visit is almost assuredly well above-average (meaning they account for more than 3-6% of park attendance and hotel occupancy) as are Canadian per guest spending metrics.
It’s impossible to draw credible conclusions, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Canadians accounted for ~7% of attendance and ~10% of guest spending at Walt Disney World last year. That’s a not-insignificant number!
It’s fairly safe to say that the number of Canadians visiting the United States, Orlando, or Walt Disney World is going to decrease in 2025.
It’s not so much a matter of if, but by how much. The U.S. Travel Association numbers above were predicated on a 10% drop–but that wasn’t a prediction of only a 10% decrease. More an illustration of what each 10% would mean in real terms.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged citizens to spend domestically instead, stating: “Now is the time to choose Canada…It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.”
A chorus of other Canadian leaders have echoed this sentiment, and it’s not just them. There appears to be an online grassroots movement to shift spending from the United States to Canada.
Polling shows souring sentiment among Canadians towards the United States, consumer backlash against American products, and widespread anecdotal reports of cancelled summer vacations to the U.S. by Canadians.
For its part, Calgary-based WestJet says demand for travel to the United States has been “soft” over the last few weeks. “What we have seen though, since the tariff announcements, is that our sales from Canada into the U.S. have actually dropped very significantly,” said Alexis von Hoensbroech, WestJet’s chief executive officer.
The decrease in interest to fly south has dropped by about 25%, WestJet reported, adding the exchange rate likely has something do with the falling demand as well. Other Canadian carriers have indicated that they are monitoring the situation and could reduce or reallocate capacity away from key U.S. markets (including Florida).
Flight Centre, Canada’s largest travel agency, told Forbes it has seen “a surge of customers” already canceling U.S. vacations and rebooking elsewhere, “including bucket-list and milestone experiences valued at over $10,000 CAD.”
In addition to politics, the U.S. dollar (USD) is strengthening as the Canadian dollar (CAD) is weakening.
Since the beginning of last October, the CAD has already weakened about 5%, hurt by trade uncertainty as well as a growing gap between U.S. and Canadian interest rates. The Bank of Canada cutting rates faster than the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Canadian 2-year note yield has fallen about 160 basis points below its U.S. counterpart, the largest gap since September 1997.
On top of that, there’s the possibility–if not probability–that pent-up demand among international tourists will start running its course in 2025 even in the absence of the above. This has been the trajectory in all other cases, and it’s hard to imagine sustained growth fueled by foreign revenge travel would continue into 2025.
One way or another, it’s probably fair to predict that international visitation to Walt Disney World will, at minimum, decelerate. The base case is that it’ll drop slightly.
The worst case is that a plunge among Canadians will exacerbate a more significant overall drop in attendance that’s otherwise driven by a mixture of international pent-up demand exhausting itself, Universal’s Epic Universe opening, and more cost-conscious consumers trading-down for cheaper vacations. All of these other factors are largely beyond the scope of this post, but we do expect them to occur to varying degrees.
Assuming all of this–or even some of it–unfolds as expected, Walt Disney World will have to pull some of its many “levers” to entice guests to return. This could come in a few forms.
One of these we already know about, which is more new entertainment–the stage shows in DHS and Disney Starlight Night Parade in Magic Kingdom. But our hope and expectation is that Walt Disney World has something more up its sleeve for Animal Kingdom and EPCOT that’ll motivate attendance.
Another will be trying to attract more of the so-called “unfavorable” guests–Florida residents, Disney Vacation Club members, and Annual Passholders. The practical reality is that’s a lot simpler than trying to lure back Canadians. This could include discounts and other incentives–a more aggressive form of the playbook we’ve seen over the last couple of summers.
Speaking of discounts, that’s an obvious answer and there are a couple of approaches here that Walt Disney World might take. The first is to offer aggressive targeted special offers to Canadians. Attempt to overcome their anxieties about traveling to the United States, show that Disney cares and values them, and help bridge the gap on the exchange rate. Basically, make them an offer they can’t refuse and demonstrate that they’re welcome at Walt Disney World. A good move not just for the short-term gain, but as a longer-term goodwill gesture.
The other approach is replacing the lost Canadians with a comparable higher-spending demographic that’ll be easier to capture. In this case, Walt Disney World could chase a different international market. The problem here is that summer is only a few months away, and most families don’t make international travel plans on this short of notice. As such, a more practical alternative might be releasing discounts to domestic guests that take pricier trips and need to be enticed with special offers.
The demographic to target here would be young families with children. Walt Disney World needing to do more to avoid pricing out families is something we discussed at length in Disney Responds to Rising Costs Criticism. Rising costs for middle class families has become a hot topic, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Walt Disney World address that by rolling out new special offers with discounted vacation packages aimed at this demo.
Discounts like this have been offered in the past: “Disney’s Kid-Sized Deal” and “Play, Stay & Dine” and “Kids Play & Dine for 50% Off.” Something like that, but more aggressive. This could kill two birds with one stone–addressing criticism and replacing lost international travelers with families that will spend more on packages, even discounted ones, than other domestic demographics.
When it comes to crowds, we would not expect much of a noticeable impact solely due to Canadians.
As noted above, roughly 3% to 6% of Walt Disney World guests come from Canada. If half of those guests cancel trips (which is a significantly higher estimate than any available data shows), that’s only a small blip. Unseasonable weather or atypical ride breakdowns would be more noticeable to guests when it comes to wait times or the perception of crowds.
This isn’t to say crowds at Walt Disney World will only be down ~1.5% or by low single-digits this summer. Our current expectation is more of a drop, save for at Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios. The ‘problem’ is that there will be multiple contributing factors for any decrease in crowds, and it’s impossible to isolate each cause. People will make whatever assumptions confirm their own biases. Universal fans will attribute it solely to Epic Universe, Canadians will point to their boycott, etc.
A couple of concluding notes. First, we’ve received a few questions from Canadians who have concerns about traveling to the United States on the basis of how Americans might treat them. Well for starters, Americans probably won’t know you’re Canadian. As someone who grew up in a border state, I’ve never been able to tell the difference between a Canadian and a Yooper (ditto Minnesotans).
For the sake of discussion, let’s say that you’re going to dress like a Mountie, wear a moose hat, and drape yourself in the Canadian flag. No one will care. You might get comments in support or little jabs with the same played-out dad jokes you’ve probably heard, but the same would’ve been true a year ago. Most Americans love our neighbors to the north, and view comments like that as a lighthearted sibling-type rivalry.
However, it’s obvious that this is a much more heated topic for Canadians and viewed very differently. That much became abundantly clear from watching the 4 Nations Face-Off. In fact, that’s what inspired this post, as those hockey games have made obvious this is not the normal type of dynamic we’ve seen with domestic travel to California or Florida becoming more politically-tinged in recent years. This is personal, and a lot of Canadians will cancel trips because of that.
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It’s already become clear that the comments will be unavoidably political, as readers are largely discussing what led to this point and underlying issues, as opposed to the potential impact on Walt Disney World in terms of crowds and discounts.
Again, understandably so–this is personal for Canadians and a tense topic. Nevertheless, the latter is the topic of this data-driven analysis of Canadian tourism to Central Florida–and not politics–so I’m going to close comments as opposed to spending all day feebly attempting to moderate.
Like 99% of Americans, we love our neighbors to the north–and appreciate our Canadian readers. Thanks for your understanding!
I am of the opinion that a drop in Canadian tourism to WDW, one of the most expensive vacations for families, would be largely due to the weakening Canadian dollar. I think most Americans were quite shocked by the 51st state rhetoric and we respect the independence of our friends to the north. I hope that tonight’s hockey game is civil. But is hockey ever really “civil?”
If I were Canadian, and had to endure freezing and even sub-zero temperatures much of the year, I would not opt for a trip to Florida from May through October, as the high heat and extreme humidity would be such a shock to my system. I’d go during a “Florida winter,” which at one time used to be WDW’s “slow season.”
I was going to avoid making any comment about Canadian travel to the US for Disney because it seemed maybe a little too politicized but since this post was written… I certainly have no ill will toward Canada or Canadians and I would be surprised to learn about any general negative sentiment, that is unless those exercising influence decide it is in their interest to stir up animosity, and then I wouldn’t bet against it.
But I also would not understand Canadians wanting to visit the US. There is only one way to interpret the current US President referring to a sovereign nation as the next US state. It’s a threat. There is only one way to interpret the current US President referring to the Prime Minister of a sovereign nation dismissively as “Governor”. It’s an insult and a threat. I certainly wouldn’t spend any more of my money in support of that agenda than absolutely unavoidable. There must be some things that are more important than Disney characters and amusement park rides, and if not this, what?
This is indicative of a larger issue, people who put politics above common sense. Just because the PM of Canada is a knucklehead and Canadians are actively booing the American Anthem, doesn’t mean we would stop visiting. And the number of people that whine on message boards is a very small fraction of the people that actually visit the parks. We will continue to visit DW and spend our hard earned American dollars.
I’m sorry, but these comments are 100% political and pretending otherwise feels like an insult to Canadians.
Loads of Americans are planning trips to Canada as we speak. Myself included . If it’s been on your list , go now ! I can’t wait to spend my money there . We are in for a world of hurt USA .
I completely support our Canadian brothers and sisters decisions, and will once again be bringing my vacation dollars to their beautiful country this summer.
The problem with the “dad” jokes is that we Canadians do not see one tiny bit of humour in being threatened by our formerly friendly neighbour to the south. My brother-in-law is on a cruise and has had a few people make a comment about the 51st state and I think they were genuinely surprised at his reaction and explanation that we don’t find any of it funny. Imagine if a country threatened the independence of the United States. Nobody would be laughing.
I wouldn’t call that a dad joke–that’s a politically-charged one. I’m surprised that anyone would make the latter, but perhaps I shouldn’t be.
A dad joke would be some snarky comment about whether he rode his moose to the airport. It’s also not funny, but it’s (hopefully?) not offensive.
It works both ways reciprocally speaking. Canadian are loved and welcomed just like the rest of the world but why would one country pay more then another. Hopefully they’ll come back. But again how many Americans will go to Canada.
It’s seems selfish to ruin each other economies . But the USA can ride the tide,Canada well I think .60 cents on the dollar is in the future.
Canada is not the only place not coming out even us in United States attendance has gone down. They priced themselves out of a lot of families finances. Taking perks away transportation from the airport, you have to pay bad enough you have to spend over $3500 for hopper passes for four you have to now get the lightning lane ect unless you only want to go on a few rides of your stay, it’s a waste of a hopper pass incredible. And I knew this day was gonna come. They gotta knock the rates down for families to go. That’s what it was all about when Walt Disney started. It’s understandable that things rise, but not at the rate they have been.
I love your enthusiasm for the Country Bears! But more impressed that you are watching Hockey – as a Brit living in Florida for decades and a Tampa Bay lightning fan, I have to cheer for Canada tonight as the team has 3 of our players and our coach (however if USA win, I will be pleased for Guenzel)
I grew up in Michigan–loving hockey is practically required by law. It also helped that the Red Wings were the only great Detroit team during my childhood!
One of my favorite things about ESPN+ is the great hockey coverage. I’ve just started to get back into the NHL in the last few years thanks to that.
Because this is very personal for us the “little jabs with the same played-out jokes” are deeply insulating. The idea that I can’t wear any Canadiana clothing or accessories without potentially subjecting myself to people saying my country doesn’t deserve it’s sovereignty, or even better, that we don’t deserve to vote is one reason of many that I will not be returning to the USA to spend my travel dollars.
I meant more like dad jokes–not politically-charged ones. Have you heard the latter in the past?
Nevertheless, I understand and respect your perspective–and decision to vote with your wallet.
Actually the most I’ve ever gotten was “Are you really from Canada or is that just a shirt you bought” LOL
I love travelling to the USA so this decision was difficult to come to, but I also strongly feel it’s the right one.
(to be fair though also, no one in the Whitehouse has ever openly disparaged my home and native land during a press conference while a bunch of people laughed)
As a small Innkeeper in coastal southern Maine (directly on the beach), who has depended on Canadian guests for the 60+ years the business has been in the family, I’ve been fielding cancelations from many of my guests from the north. And these are families that have been coming for generations. They know where I stand on the continuing situation and some will still visit, but as the cancelation dollars start to add up, I can already see that this is going to be a very tough year. I’m a seasonal business (mid-May to mid-Oct) and this is really going to hurt. Covid put me in a hole that I’m just climbing out of and I can already feel the dirt starting to cover me up again. I don’t like any of this one bit.
That’s heartbreaking to hear, and really underscores that things like this can be devastating on an individual level.
I’m not sure whether it’ll help (or even if you’d want to), but feel free to post a link to your inn.
Thank you Tom, for addressing this. Add me to the growing number of Canadians that love Disney, but just cannot travel to Florida when everything is so unstable. Really hoping for better days and a brighter future for Americans, but until then, we will spend our vacations elsewhere.