CDC Indoor Mask Recommendation for Vaccinated No Longer Applies to Disney World
Pursuant to the public health agency’s community transmission map, the CDC’s recommendation that fully vaccinated individuals wear masks indoors no longer applies to Orange County, Florida–and by extension, Walt Disney World. This post covers details, implications for the theme parks’ indoor face mask rule, case & positivity data, and more.
Before we get going, a quick recap of what has happened in the last several months, leading us to the current point. Back at the end of July, the CDC issued new indoor mask guidance for the fully vaccinated that made face masks recommended in Orange County due to rolling positivity and case per 100,000 resident numbers.
Almost immediately thereafter, Walt Disney World reinstated its indoor face mask rule and Orange County issued a new state of emergency. For the next month-plus, the situation in Florida was grim, with the state setting and breaking its own records in daily and weekly cases, among other things.
Since then, the environment has become decidedly more optimistic, as Florida has improved to have the lowest case numbers per capita in the contiguous United States. That stretched started on October 18, and Florida has had the lowest case numbers per 100,000 in the United States every week since then.
As a result of the low case numbers, positivity rate, hospitalizations, and deaths, Mayor Jerry Demings announced the end of Orange County’s state of emergency at the end of October.
Florida’s marked improvements came at a tremendous cost and we’re not suggesting that Florida be held up as a role model for its approach. The purpose of this reporting is not to make value judgments, but to share data and trends. Florida got hit hard over the late summer, and past waves around the globe have borne out that higher highs are followed by lower lows. The trajectory in Florida should be absolutely unsurprising to anyone who looks at data and trends.
It also should be unsurprising that other states are now seeing their own seasonal spikes as the weather pushes more people indoors into poorly ventilated spaces–just as the summer heat and humidity did in Florida giving rise to its last wave. This scenario has played out consistently and repeatedly over the last year-plus throughout the United States and beyond.
Until recently, we had been doing weekly reports about the on-the-ground situation in Florida, but as the state’s numbers have bottomed out, they’re less useful to Walt Disney World vacation planners.
For anyone curious about the underlying data that’s giving rise to the optimism and the change in applicability of CDC mask guidance, consult the below resources for numbers reported and compiled by local, state, and national organizations:
- Florida Department of Health Weekly Situation Report (Updates Fridays) – A great resource for statewide vaccination, positivity and case numbers, including stats over the last 10 weeks. Also gives cumulative and weekly numbers for each county in the state.
- United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Data Tracker (Updates Daily) – The authoritative resource for case, death, and testing trends for the United States as a whole, and each individual state. (Florida does not provide data on weekends.)
- New York Times Hot Spot Map & Case Counts – The New York Times compiles data from state, local, and federal health agencies to create a map of hotspots, and trends among the states.
- Johns Hopkins University Data Resource Center – Good for data junkies, or those who want to visualize trends.
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Hospital Utilization – Only truly useful when things get bad, as it shows available hospital capacity. (Also worth reviewing on occasion when things are good, as doing so provides context as to normal capacity numbers for local hospitals.)
These are all great for the unvarnished numbers from which you can glean past and present trajectories, without any sensationalism or spin. If you’d prefer the latter, stick to Facebook memes, I guess.
We will share one positive piece of data from the CDC: Florida’s 7-day moving average now stands at 1,497 and is falling. This is the lowest level since June 11.
With that, let’s turn to the CDC’s Community Transmission Map, which is based on positivity and incidence numbers.
As you can see, most of the United States is now in the red tier.
The notable exception to that is the South, which saw a significant spike in cases towards the end of summer and is now lower as a result. CDC’s mask guidance exists at the county level, but if broken down by state instead, Florida would be the only one in the US falling in the yellow/moderate tier.
If you’re curious about the indicators and how each tier is calculated, here’s a quick rundown: counties reporting 100 cases or more cases per 100,000 residents, or that have a positivity rate of at least 10%, fall into the red or high transmission tier. If a county has reported 50 to 100 cases per 100,000 residents over a seven-day period or has a positivity rate of 8% to 10%, it falls into the orange or substantial transmission tier.
The CDC recommends indoor masking for the fully vaccinated only in those two tiers. The criteria for moving down to the yellow or moderate level is under 50 total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days and under 8% test positivity during the past 7 days. The blue or low tier requires 0-10 cases per 100,000 residents and a positivity rate under 5%.
As of the previous update to the CDC’s Community Transmission Map (November 5, 2021), Orange County just missed moving down to the moderate (yellow) tier. At that time, Orange County’s case rate was 50.67 per 100,000 residents with a positivity rate of 3.23%.
Had Orange County dropped by .68 more (less than one person per 100,000!) it would’ve qualified for the moderate/yellow tier.
Prior to that, it was widely forecast that Orange County would fall into the yellow tier back on the Friday of that near-miss. In fact, Walt Disney World relaxed its rules for Cast Members on that date, no longer making them mandatory in backstage areas indoors for fully vaccinated Cast Members. (They are still required to wear face masks indoors when they are on stage, or in guest areas of the park.)
We found this to be an interesting development, as if Disney was anticipating Orange County to hit the yellow tier then and was laying the groundwork for more sweeping changes. (In fact, we had heard rumors of an announcement that day, but nothing came to pass then–or since.)
In any case, with the latest update to the CDC’s Community Transmission Map, Orange County now is in the yellow or moderate transmission tier.
Orange County’s current case rate is 37.17 per 100,000 residents with a positivity rate of 2.48%.
Not only are Orange County, Florida’s numbers among the lowest in all of the United States, but they are still falling.
Below you can see the CDC’s week over week percentage changes for Orange County:
As for what this means for Walt Disney World’s indoor face mask policy…it’s really difficult to say. Previously, our expectation was that Walt Disney World would lift its indoor mask rule once both the CDC mask recommendation no longer applied and Orange County lifted its state of emergency. Both of those things have now happened.
However, we’re becoming a bit skeptical any change is on the immediate horizon. First, the rumors have sort of fizzled out. Second, case numbers across the United States as a whole have started to trend upward within the last week. This follows a similar pattern in Europe, and what happened last year in the lead-up to the holiday season.
While current forecasts for Florida continue to paint an optimistic picture about a more muted holiday surge, that’s because the state got hit so hard over the summer. The same is not true for the rest of the United States, and Walt Disney World draws visitors from around the county–and once again, around the globe with the reopening of international travel.
It thus would not be surprising for Walt Disney World to take the more measured and cautious approach, waiting to see what happens with potential waves driven by Thanksgiving and Christmas household gatherings. The company might want to avoid oscillating back and forth with its mask rules, making things less predictable or consistent for guests who have already planned on having the rules in place. Or, Disney could simply want consistent rules for Disneyland and Walt Disney World, and California’s Orange County doesn’t quite qualify for the yellow tier yet (it’s trending in the right direction…for now).
With all of that said, this does present a window of opportunity. Now that Orange County has hit the moderate tier, its state of emergency is over, and vaccines are approved and available for kids ages 5 to 11, there may not be a better time for a policy change before 2022. If Disney is looking for justification to end the indoor mask rule, that trio of events would provide the desired cover. We’ll keep you posted on what happens!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
