Cold Weather Crowds Heating Up at Disney World, Especially EPCOT
It’s time for our first Walt Disney World crowd report of 2026, recapping the highs & lows of the couple months with a focus on the latest trends as of late January that will likely spill into early February. This wait times report shares data for the last month-plus, plus our theories as to what’s happening with attendance & lines–and why wait times are getting worse at painting a complete picture of crowds.
Let’s start with a quick recap of crowds from the holiday season through early January. We don’t need to fixate on this too much, as it was mostly what you’d expect. Jersey Week through Veterans Day saw a slight spike to moderate territory, with crowds peaking on Monday, November 10th. Wait times plummeted the following week, with November 16-22 having lows rivaling the August and September off-season.
Thanksgiving week was the busiest of November with crowds arriving the Sunday before, peaking on Monday, and continuing until Thursday. By Friday, the sharp downtrend had already begun. But even at its height, Thanksgiving week was not truly busy. Crowd levels, at least as measured by wait times, ended up being moderate. As always, congestion is a different story. But this is precisely why (spoiler alert) Thanksgiving ranks #1 on our list of the Least-Bad Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World for Families on School Schedules.
Most of December ended up having low to moderate crowd levels. During the first 3 weeks of December, average wait times across the entirety of Walt Disney World were 29 minutes. That’s not averaging all three weeks; it was the same 29 minute average in each of those weeks (some days were better and worse, obviously).
Those are exceptionally good crowd levels, and this is now the second consecutive year that lower crowds have crept into that third week, not just the first two. Although there were some daily and park-by-park spikes prior to then, there were not consistent and sustained moderate or higher crowd levels until Saturday, December 20th.
What might be a surprise is that the days and weekend around Christmas actually were not that bad. Crowds were high, but as a whole, the average wait time was 40 minutes and the crowd level was only 7/10, with peak dates being December 22nd and 23rd. That’s below each of the last two Christmases, and the first time we’ve seen a crowd level below 9/10 for that particular week during normal times.
It was the least-busy Christmas week since 2020, which was slower for fairly obvious reasons. Even Christmas 2021, which saw a slowdown starting in late September due to a resurgence of COVID and reinstatement of mask rules, was busier than the week of Christmas 2025.
Christmas week was still the busiest since Easter and the 4th worst week of last year. It just wasn’t nearly as bad as last year or (especially) 2022-2023 or 2019. All of those were high 10/10 weeks; 7/10 is a big drop-off as contrasted with those.
Unsurprisingly, the week around New Year’s Eve was much, much busier. From December 27th through January 5th, Walt Disney World had heavy crowds. The peak day of the holiday season (December 29th) saw average wait times of 60 minutes, and only one week later (January 6th) that average was down to 32 minutes. That week ended up being the busiest of 2025 by a wide margin, but was still down year-over-year.
It wasn’t just Walt Disney World that was busy. As we’ve already covered, Epic Universe had its busiest day ever in early 2026. Not just the highest wait times ever for Epic Universe, but for any park at Universal Orlando or Walt Disney World since at least 2019–and by a very wide margin. The average wait on that date was 107 minutes, with peak waits of over 300 minutes and multiple headliners hitting 200+ minutes throughout the day. That whole week was likewise very busy at Universal Orlando.
One thing we did not previously cover, however, was New Year’s Eve at EPCOT. You should be able to easily spot December 31st on the below graph from thrill-data.com:
New Year’s Eve has long been the busiest day of the year at EPCOT, and I remember some truly crazy wait times on NYE back in 2019 and earlier. We were there to ring in several of those years, and they were wild.
Post-COVID, EPCOT had not reached those same heights…until this year. The average wait time on NYE at EPCOT was 83 minutes, far surpassing the second-busiest day of the year (December 30th), which hit “only” 61 minutes. For context, a normal day at EPCOT last year had an average wait time of 31 minutes.
We still love the atmosphere of EPCOT on New Year’s Eve and can’t wait to do it again, but it’s not for the faint of heart…or anyone wanting to actually ride rides. A good bucket list entry for WDW regulars, but definitely not first-timers.
For reference, the busiest stretches of the last few months were the two weeks of Fall Break around Columbus Day, two weeks around Veterans Day, Thanksgiving week, Christmas week, New Year’s week, and first week (or so) of 2026. None of this should come as a huge surprise.
The bigger surprise might be that the first week of Fall Break was busier than the November holiday weeks, and that there were two weeks of summer that were on par with the weeks around Veterans Day and Thanksgiving.
Even though we’ve identified those ‘twin peaks’ of summer as ones to avoid due to crowd spikes, we never would’ve expected the November holiday weeks to only be on par with those. Here’s a look at the daily wait time averages, courtesy of thrill-data.com:
Not to belabor the point, but these are crowd levels as measured by wait times. In our extensive experience, ‘feels like’ crowds are always worse during the holiday season. Always.
Even 2/10 and 3/10 days can have congestion, especially at EPCOT. And there’s also the fact that Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios close early to hard ticket events multiple nights per week, so there’s more variance in day-to-day and park-to-park crowd levels.
The flip side to that, though, is that summer has worse ‘feels like’ weather. The reason congestion isn’t as bad is because people prioritize air-conditioning, so they move more quickly from line to line. Crowds are also worse in the (fewer) nighttime hours, especially Extended Evening Hours as a disproportionate number of guests seek out those as a reprieve from the weather.
To each their own, but I would happily take higher ‘feels like’ crowds/congestion over higher ‘feels like’ temperatures. That’s precisely why more weeks in November and December make our list of the best time to visit; recommendations that the above really underscore.
The lesson from the above, at least from my perspective, is that maybe the weeks of Thanksgiving and Christmas actually don’t belong on the worst list anymore. But before I go bucking conventional wisdom by changing those recommendations, I want to see another year of wait times data.
Since January 6th, wait times have mostly been as expected. The weekdays that followed dropped dramatically, and the last two weeks have had 29 minute averages before rebounding around MLK Day Weekend, which was about on par with the lead-up to Christmas.
The bigger surprise has been over the last few days, which is what we want to draw your attention to. We’ve talked to a couple of Florida friends at Walt Disney World this weekend, who described the parks as packed. EPCOT ran out of reservations on Saturday, and hit 9/10 crowd levels both days. From what we heard, the congestion was even worse, with it feeling like the 10/10 days between Christmas and New Year’s (but short of NYE itself).
The other parks were more in moderate territory, at least when it comes to wait times. However, we also received reader reports that everywhere was busy, even the hotels. That the wait times did not tell the full story. Frankly, this is often the case in the winter months, especially during EPCOT Festival of the Arts, so we initially weren’t too surprised or intending to cover it.
What piqued our curiosity, though, is the number of reports we heard or saw on social media of guests from other southern states “fleeing” to Florida to escape the winter weather. With the expectation that school would be cancelled due to snow and ice this week, and not wanting to be in their home states for the winter storms, a not-insignificant number of people took last-minute road trips to Walt Disney World, further exacerbating the crowds.
Another factor leading to higher attendance the last couple of weekends is the Discover Walt Disney World Ticket Deal for Florida Residents, which just launched on January 12th. This annual special offer is always hugely popular among locals, and leads to spikes in crowd levels towards the beginning and (especially) end of the discount.
With all of that said, the above is consistent with our experiences at Walt Disney World from November through February in each of the last few years. Assuming that the winter weather is creating a flee to Florida effect, it’s only exaggerating what we’ve already seen play out for a while.
This is especially true at EPCOT, and doubly so on weekends during both Festival of the Holidays and Festival of the Arts. Perhaps not coincidentally, these are the shortest festivals of the year, so locals have less time to experience them–thereby consolidating crowds into a shorter window. Anecdotally, we’ve found these to be the events that are more popular with locals. (Flower & Garden isn’t too far behind, particularly the first couple of weekends if the weather is nice.)
We’ve been discussing the ‘EPCOT Exception’ to crowds for a while now, due to it being the biggest locals’ park at Walt Disney World, but this is more pronounced than ever. It’s crazy to navigate walkways that are packed with people in World Showcase…but then have wait times more reflective of 3/10 to 6/10 crowds.
Ultimately, we felt it was worth covering this and once again pointing to the sometimes-significant gap between crowd levels and congestion. Wait times are used as a proxy for crowd levels because they are the only objective measure for that. There’s no alternative, and at the end of the day, wait times still are what’s most important to many people (who visit the parks to, you know, ride rides), even if congestion can leave an outsized impression.
It nevertheless bears underscoring that wait times are not the end-all, be-all when it comes to discussing crowds or choosing when to visit. Feels like crowds are typically worse from November through March. Conversely, feels like weather is typically worse from May through September.
There might be two days in mid-August and early December with identical numerical crowd levels, but the ‘feels like’ conditions in both would be radically different due to the temperature, walkway congestion, and more. That’s to say nothing of reduced capacity as a result of refurbishments, closures and construction, special events, holiday decorations, etc.. The bottom line is that there are a lot of variables that contribute to congestion or feels like crowds, and wait times are only one piece of the puzzle.
To that end, we will once again plug our more holistic list of the 10 Best & Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027. More than ever, we advise choosing when to visit on the basis of more than just numerical crowd levels. They don’t tell the full story, and in situations like right now–when winter weather could be causing an influx of visitors–there are some variables that are impossible to predict.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think of wait time and crowd trends over the course of the last couple months? Have you been in the parks the last few days? Notice an uptick in congestion or wait times? Anyone ‘fleeing to Florida’ to escape winter weather? Expect ‘feels like’ crowds to be heavy over the next couple of months, even if the wait times suggest lower crowds? Do you agree or disagree with my assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Worth noting, however, that when MK closed “promptly at 16:30”, as the MK loud speaker announced it would, there was a mass exodus of people at the same time and the resulting pile up at the TTC ferry launch, both monorails, and the resort launches was insane. (I couldn’t see the bus lines.)
Tom’s mention in a December post about MK’s early 16:30 closure on Jan. 27th and the resulting low (perhaps even 1/10) crowds propelled me to book a plane ticket for this week out of sheer curiosity to see what a low crowd day looks and feel like. Despite uncertainty about actually going through with it, when the freezing weather was predicted and I saw Orlando was having 80 degree days that sealed the deal. My two daughters and I flew down to WDW from NC this past Saturday. MK on Saturday was crowded and Epcot on Sunday was surreal. When the Nemo ride hit an hour wait, seemingly every food stand and cart had lines double digit deep, and overall people congestion necessitated more shuffling than walking at times, I seriously had to remind myself more than once that it was not the week after Christmas. That’s what it “felt like”. Was curious if Monday would bring lighter crowds at HS, and while not as crazy as Sunday, it was still busier than expected. The shortened day at MK on Tuesday felt more crowded than it should have been. Seemingly definitely not a 1/10 day. However, ride times told a different story as Tron and 7DMT never got above a 50 minute wait all day and most other rides stayed at 5-15 minutes. There was even a cast member calling out for single riders at Space Mountain, beseeching people to come ride. That was surreal to witness.
Im at WDW now. I was at EPCOT Sunday night, if did not feel busy at all to me compared to mid-November. I was surprised that Living With the Land was posting 25 minute plus lines most of the evening which looked accurate when I walked past. Last year on my visit around this time there were many hours extensions, MK closing was 11pm every night. This year very few…
I saw the lower wait times before Christmas, and then learned that our school system is giving the full two weeks for Christmas Break again next year, and I’m so tempted to try to go for the week leading up to Christmas next year, and then leave on the 26th or 27th. It would be our chance to see Festival of the Holidays without missing school, but I don’t know if I can trust that the trend will stick, or if the crowds will come sooner next year since Christmas is a Friday.
May be a silly question, but you mention wait times being the only objective way to measure crowds. Does Disney not track and release info simply on number of guests entering the park on any given day?
They track it but they don’t release that info publicly. Sometimes they speak to attendance numbers on earnings calls, etc., but that’s more the rolled up numbers, YoY data, and trends.
I suppose even knowing the exact attendance at a given park on a given day wouldn’t fully help you understand “feels like” crowds because depending on the park and day you might have a guest mix that’s more into hanging out or more into doing rides. Or you might have days/parks where a lot of the guests are in the park for most of the day, vs. other days/parks where people arrive late, leave early, park-hop, etc. Parades/shows, festivals, parties, ride downtime/uptime, early entry, extended evening hours, and especially weather all contribute to the “feels like” crowd levels at any given location at any given time within any given park, as well.
I was at the parks with my family from Jan 23-25 (going home today) and Friday was fine, but this weekend was really busy at times. I think it was a combo of the cheer competitions, the storm affecting the rest of the country and the warm weather. Seemed like the Polynesian was really full, but it made the resort very lively. Epcot was nuts with the festival happening – there was regularly 90 min waits for Test Track. I’m so glad I had lightning lanes for the fam, because waiting for all of that with a squirrelly toddler would have been hell.
This was still in the Post-COVID era (masking indoors, etc.), so the crowd dynamics may be different now, but we took a trip from our large midwest city down to WDW in late January 2022 over a three-day weekend — our kids’ school district had a Friday school improvement/institute day (teacher trainings) that didn’t coincide with any national holidays, so it felt like a “zig when they zag” opportunity. And it was glorious — flew down Thursday evening, stayed at the Swan for a very reasonably rate, did a day at Epcot then a day at DHS, then flew home Sunday. Crowd levels weren’t super low, but weren’t insanely high. It was so great that we repeated the same trip the next year, but flew to California/Disneyland instead (and added an extra day).
I figured it wouldn’t be long before more people started figuring out the cost/benefit or ROI of visiting the parks this time of year is so much higher than in summer, if you can figure a way around work or school commitments. Work-wise it’s gotten so much easier — many people are working remotely now so can get some work done on trips if needed. Breaks from school (and kids’ sports/activities) are tougher but people are getting creative, and a huge factor is that post-COVID most schools have stopped rewarding perfect attendance (which means coming to school even if you’re sick).
Jan/Feb is the coldest/darkest time in most of the country, but (if you don’t mind semi-chilly mornings/evenings) one of the best times to be in Orlando, especially at the parks where early sunsets are just more time in the lovely after-dark park lighting. (Or you can go in June/July/August and get boiled and broiled in the sun and humidity before being drenched by rain.) Unless you are an avid skier (and have the $$$ for that), there are very few places in the US that are in vacation-friendly mode this time of year. Road trips anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon line are fraught with the constant threat of dangerous driving conditions. Most US National Parks are cold, icy, and devoid of vegetation. Fun cities for tourism (Boston, NYC, DC, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, etc.) are cold/snowy/rainy/windswept. Same with lake and mountain vacation destinations — aside from winter sports, a visit to the Catskills, Adirondacks, Poconos, Wisconsin Dells, Smokies, Branson, Door County, etc. is going to be mainly holing up in a cozy cabin or hotel room (though the new proliferation of indoor water parks like Kalahari and Great Wolf Lodge is a recognition that families want something active to do together in bad weather). Most Six Flags and other regional amusement parks are closed for the winter.
But, looking on a map, there’s a place that has all the fun and warmth you could possibly want, tons of hotel rooms and Airbnb’s, often-reasonable airfares, etc. So maybe you can’t swing the weeklong “Disney Bubble” vacation of your youth, but wouldn’t 3-4 days be better than nothing? That, to me, summarizes the mindset that will continue to make Jan/Feb weekends the new “high season” in Orlando/WDW.
Great analysis as always. Curious if you expect the trend from the past few days to continue into next week? With the winter storm over I’d expect it to be busy normally but not holiday crowd busy like the last few days.
My wife and I both worked at Disney in the early 2000s and have visited every couple of years since leaving Florida in 2005. We are a “wait times” family, as we go to ride rides. We are recently back from Disney having visited 1/19 – 1/21 and were not prepared for the crowd levels at all. We knew day one was MLK day, but we expected crowds to fade Monday evening as people headed back from wence they came, and Tuesday and Wednesday to be low moderate. We had not been since the latest iteration of Lightning Lane began, and come from the era of “Wait times are artificially high so that we exceed customer expectations”. New lightning lane rules mean for many rides the posted wait time can easily increase while you stand and watch lightning lane buyers flood the gates. This is especially true if a ride has experiences any down time.
While we were able to ride everything we wanted to at all four parks over three days, we didn’t feel like we could wander the parks, enjoy the theming, and just be at Disney. Instead it was a march from one ride line to the next to ensure we managed to get everything done. For every 10 minute Star Tours line, there was a 95 minute Rise of the Resistance line. Rise is the one place where we did buy ILL and that did breeze us right through.
What I walked away with was a feeling that Standby Line is the new “single rider line” who get to fill in the empty slots left by the Lightning Lane buyers. Lightning Lane is now nearly a required purchase for all “must do” attractions in 2026 if you want to actually enjoy being at Disney instead of “tackling Disney”.
Since we don’t ride everything, with older kids who don’t care about Dumbo or Winnie the Pooh future visits may mean less days with more lightning lane, so our budget is the same, but we spend less time in lines.
The lesson I take away from this trip is now Disney is less an experience trip and more a “Plan out all the must do, want to do, and can skip it” you can and create a plan that lets you do all of your must dos, most of your want to dos, and walk away feeling good about it. Regardless of time of year or crowd calendar expectations.
I’m confused. You mentioned that EPCOT ran out of reservations. I thought you no longer needed to have park reservations? What am I missing?
Annual Passholders still need to make park reservations.