COVID Report: Florida Ranks 43rd in US for New Cases

Here’s this week’s COVID-19 report with data from Florida and around Walt Disney World as of October 5, 2021. This provides an update on new cases, positivity, hospitalizations, and commentary from Orange County’s weekly briefing. Plus, a look at the level the numbers need to reach before Walt Disney World considers dropping indoor mask rules.

We’ll start with the latest report from the Florida Department of Health, which shows the another significant drop in new weekly cases at 37,772. This is the lowest number in the last 10 weeks, which is how long the report dates back. As a reminder, Florida topped 150,000 weekly cases for several consecutive weeks in August. In early September, weekly cases were still above 100,000.

Florida’s rolling positivity rate continues to decrease as well, down to 6.5%. That number was 8.6% last week and 11% the week before that. It had been in the 20% range for late July through mid-August. Positivity rates and new cases dropping in tandem indicates that Florida’s prevalence continues to decrease–good news!

This report shows new cases dropping in the last week among every age range, including among school age kids eligible for vaccinations. Inoculations continue to increase among the 12-19 age cohort (now at 54%) and every age range, but have slowed significantly from their pace during the peak of the wave.

The highest case numbers are once again occurring in age ranges between 20 and 39 years old. Over 83% of Floridians above the age of 60 are vaccinated, plus 76% of those ages 50-59. The lowest vaccination rate is among residents ages 20-29 at 53%.

Here’s a look at Florida’s daily case trend via the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker. Per the CDC, Florida’s 2,741 new cases on Sunday is the lowest daily count since July 5, which was a day of decreased testing due to the Independent Day weekend.

The state’s 7-day average of new cases stands at 4,404 as of October 4, 2021. That’s down from over 9,000 two weeks ago. This is Florida’s lowest rolling 7-day average since July 11, which is before the most recent wave began. At its current pace, Florida will be back to its June lows within a week or two.

Above is a chart of Florida’s daily case data from the CDC to put this precipitous decrease into context.

After peaking in late August, daily numbers and the moving average have been falling throughout September. Again, since the positivity rate is decreasing with moving case numbers, this is not a result of decreased testing. It’s also follows the visible trajectory of every past wave.

For further insight, the Florida Hospital Association continues to report a decline in new hospitalizations. The total number of hospitalizations as of yesterday is 4,307.

This number is down 29.8% week-over-week, at less than half the level of only a few weeks ago. Until early September, that number was above 15,000.

Per numbers from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coronavirus patients account for 8.55% of Florida’s inpatient beds (down from 19.25% three weeks ago) and 19.3% of ICU beds (down from 32.84% two weeks ago). Both of these numbers are significantly lower than the national average.

Despite this sharp drop in coronavirus patients, 76.89% of hospital beds in Florida are still in use (down from 82.27% two weeks ago). This is likely a mix of standard procedures resuming and the reality that hospitals normally operate at relatively high capacity even under normal circumstances (although that number has dropped in recent decades per CDC data).

Unfortunately, deaths remain elevated. As a reminder, deaths are counted on the date they occurred rather than the date they’re reported. Additionally, it typically takes 2-3 weeks for those deaths to appear in the daily or weekly reports. This means that not only do deaths lag cases, but they are backfilled in the reporting data. It’s thus difficult to say with certainty when deaths have peaked until a month or so after the fact.

With that said, looking backwards 3 weeks shows a moving average of 232 deaths per day, which is down from the 249 number reported last week. It appears that deaths peaked in late August/early September at around 360 per day, as mid-September deaths were down considerably–even dates that are 3-4 weeks ago after the tally should be close to finalized.

On a more positive note, Florida now ranks 43rd among states in the U.S. for average daily COVID cases per 100,000 people per data compiled by the New York Times. The state continues to improve its standing each week (dropping from 33rd last week), after being in the top 10 last month and holding the #1 spot for much of August when it accounted for nearly 25% of all cases in the nation at one point.

While some states are continuing to see their own surges, cases are now declining throughout the Midwest, Northeast, and United States as a whole. Florida’s downward trend still outpaces almost every other state, but it’s interesting to see other states’ trends–or lack thereof–as some states are seemingly spared from the same seasonal spikes.

Finally, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings and other local leaders held their latest press conference, which you can view for yourself above. (These are becoming more mundane and less interesting, which is a very welcome development.)

Much of the press conference once again revolved around the legal dispute between the mayor and governor, as well as the vaccine mandate for county employees. All of that is beyond the scope of this post. As previously mentioned, our goal here is objective and wholly depoliticized reporting on what’s happening with COVID in Florida.

Epidemiologist Alvina Chu, MHS from the Florida Department of Health in Orange County spoke at the press conference, providing further insight and indicating that she is optimistic about Orange County’s trajectory and where things will stand heading into the holiday season.

Ms. Chu stated that Orange County’s rolling positivity rate is 7.67%, down from 15.8% exactly one month ago and the 20% levels of August. The weekly incidence rate is 114 positive cases per 100,000 individuals, down from the 600s of August (that’s also down from 157 last week).

During the Q&A, Mayor Demings was asked about wastewater analysis, and he indicated that there was a decline in all three of the facilities consistent with the lower numbers. Per both Demings and Chu, no variants of concern had been found in the wastewater.

They were also asked for their thoughts on the “interesting” CDC holiday guidelines, which have become something of an online meme. Chu reminded residents that this CDC advice was consistent with past guidance, and represented good public health recommendations, even if some of it sounds silly. (One CDC recommendation–opening windows during household gatherings–is absolutely great advice.) She also encouraged Orange County residents to get vaccinated to avoid the most severe outcomes, and to prevent these “very preventable” hospitalizations and deaths.

Additionally, Chu stated “we are cautiously optimistic with the numbers that have decreased over the last several weeks, that we have passed this particular peak of the pandemic.” She reiterated that Orange County would be less likely to reverse all of this progress if those who are unvaccinated do their part.

She further stated that Orange County is still in the red or high tier of the CDC’s Community Transmission Map, based on positivity and incidence numbers. However, Chu is “very optimistic that we will move into the next category below, or orange, within the next week or two.”

With that said, the CDC’s criteria for moving down to the moderate level where face masks are no longer recommended indoors is under 50 total new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days and under 8% test positivity during the past 7 days. Even assuming Orange County continues on its record trajectory from this week, it will still be sometime in mid to late October before it hits the moderate level.

Walt Disney World reinstated its indoor mask rule with that CDC guidance, so it’s likely Disney won’t lift the rule until Orange County qualifies for the moderate level. It’s also possible Walt Disney World won’t lift the current mask rules until after the holiday season, waiting to see a sustained downturn throughout the United States. If current trends hold, Disneyland would qualify for lifting the rule first, as California’s Orange County already has a qualifying (low level) positivity rate and is just waiting on its case rate to hit the moderate level. It’s worth noting that, previously, Disney changed the rules for both Walt Disney World and Disneyland simultaneously, without regard for the specific circumstances in their respective states and counties.

Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!