Will Disney World Crowds Keep Going Up in 2021?
“Are Walt Disney World crowds going to increase in 2021?” and “will wait times be worse this year?” are common questions among WDW trip planners. Many readers are asking whether there’s going to be rising crowds this winter or a surge of pent-up demand for Spring 2021.
These questions make sense, as we wrote an entire post about Revenge Travel in 2021 at Walt Disney World months ago, before attendance levels started rising. We’ve also returned to the topic a few times, offering further insight and predictions about what would happen with crowd levels once things started going back to normal.
While we have a lot of thoughts on this topic, we’ll start with the necessary caveats. First, this is an incredibly fluid situation with circumstances changing on a weekly basis. Everything happening right now has a ripple effect on Walt Disney World, and there are a ton of unknowns that make it literally impossible to predict travel volume and when Walt Disney World can resume operational normalcy. Those variables have big impacts on crowds.
Second, we made some bold predictions about post-reopening crowd levels at Walt Disney World before the parks resumed operations last summer, and if we’re being honest, our track record was not great. In fairness to ourselves, we also forecast the lowest attendance levels since the months post-9/11 and that did turn out to be true.
However, that doesn’t even begin to tell the full story of Walt Disney World crowds in the second half of last year. The problem is that low attendance (and super low hotel occupancy) did not always translate to low crowds or wait times. In fact, some weeks in the fall had higher “feels like” crowd levels than their counterparts during normal years. (The perception of crowds and wait times was further exacerbated by the lack of FastPass.)
We’ll delve deeper into that later in the post. For now, let’s start with a brief recap of post-reopening at Walt Disney World, which serves as the basis for our predictions, as well as the reader trepidation about 2021 crowd levels…
The above graph, courtesy of Thrill-Data.com, tells a fairly straightforward story of wait times increasing every month of last year from September through December.
To some degree, this gave rise to concerns that crowds will keep increasing at Walt Disney World in January 2021, February 2021, and so on. Basically, it’ll be a nonstop climb. Those fears are somewhat understandable, at least, until we look at monthly attendance trends from the previous year:
As you can see, wait times follow more or less the same trend. If you go back several years, you’ll see the same thing–monthly crowd levels increasing from September until the end of the year.
If you were to do a deeper dive into the numbers, you’d see familiar patterns. Spikes during the holidays and school breaks and off-season lulls. There were some unique wrinkles due to the cancellation of special events and a disproportionate number of Floridians in the parks, but the general “crowd contours” were consistent with prior years from September through December.
The main difference is that guests were more acutely aware (and apprehensive of) crowd levels given the circumstances, and that lengthy lines were plainly visible due to physical distancing. When it comes to the actual data, wait times were lower than in previous years. Anecdotally, we also found wait times to be far more inflated than in normal years, so it’s likely actual waits were down by a noticeable amount.
The months that ended up being anomalies were July and August, which were veritable ghost towns as compared to the fall and early winter. While many fans and commentators feared pent-up demand early on, those predictions did not come to pass.
With the benefit of hindsight, we’d largely attribute the summer lows to a few things. First, there’s always a lag between people booking trips and traveling, so most tourists were not prepared to visit in July or August. Second, many more wanted to take a “wait and see” approach with the health safety protocol, crowds, and Florida’s surging case numbers (the highest in the nation at the time). By the time many people saw things running smoothly and the parks uncrowded, they were booking for October through December.
Finally and most significantly, the Disney Park Pass system was not working smoothly, meaning a ton of capacity went to “waste” due to poor allocation among the theme park ticket holders, resort guests, and Annual Passholders. There were several consecutive weeks when all parks were totally unavailable to APs, but a sea of green for the other categories (July is only part yellow in the screenshot above because EPCOT and DHS weren’t open yet). That was fixed by September, and it’s no coincidence that attendance picked up at that time.
The woes of the Disney Park Pass system now seem like a distant memory, but they were a big source of consternation at the time, and threw a monkey wrench into a lot of planning, predicting, and assessing crowd levels. The parks were incredibly quiet and downright deserted some days those first couple of months, but that was not due to lack of demand–many locals were simply shut out of reservations.
Most Walt Disney World crowd forecasts, including ours, did not take those Park Pass problems into account when projecting attendance for the fall and holidays. However, that was not the only thing we missed.
The other big thing was that Walt Disney World increased its self-imposed capacity cap. Prior to the holiday season, CEO Bob Chapek announced that Walt Disney World increased capacity from 25% to 35% while still adhering to health guidance based on industrial engineering estimates. Data from fully booked days over the course of the previous few months suggested to us that there were gradual increases in October through November.
Walt Disney World attributed this increase to efficiency gains such as increased ride capacity, which allowed park operators to increase attendance levels while staying within CDC guidelines. This increase to the capacity of the parks while still observing physical distancing was predicated mostly on two things: added queue markers and more more physical dividers on popular attractions like Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, Frozen Ever After, and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway to increase hourly rider numbers.
The latter was an actual efficiency improvement whereas the former was only a theoretical one. Without getting too “in the weeds” on this, the problem with the increase in capacity is that industrial engineering estimates assume optimal space utilization, and that simply does not happen. During November and December visits, we found areas with a surplus of empty space in the parks along with heavily congested areas. (This topic is tackled in greater depth in our Magic Kingdom Crowd Report: Fully Booked, 35% Capacity Day.)
This has been a fairly longwinded recap on post-reopening crowds at Walt Disney World, but it’s somewhat necessary to provide proper context to attendance trends and their causes. Since this is impossible to predict with a high or even moderate degree of certainty, we feel it necessary and appropriate to “show our work” based upon what’s already happened.
Predicting that crowds would increase from September to December of last year was easy. We got that right, even if we missed some of the particulars. Looking forward to January through April 2021–and beyond–is significantly more difficult.
If we add January and February of last year to our second graph, we see something somewhat surprising: those months were busier than the prior December. Even though the winter has been getting busier over the last few years, that was still fairly unprecedented.
Given everything that happened afterwards, it might seem like an eternity ago, but we wrote about the phenomenon last February in Peak Season Crowds During Winter “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World. We largely attributed the spike to the grand opening of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, a huge number of youth events at the ESPN Wide World of Sports, and international tourists coming Orlando from South American countries for their summer vacation.
While Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance remains popular, the current capacity cap on that park and greater awareness of the hoops required to ride will likely significantly limit its drawing power in January and February 2021 as compared to last year.
More importantly, there isn’t a single youth event scheduled for ESPN Wide World of Sports and international travel is virtually nonexistent this winter due to border closures. So both of those things, along with runDisney races, conventions, and other normal winter draws will be total non-factors this year. That’s huge, as all of those have been means Walt Disney World has used to bolster crowds during what has traditionally been the winter off-season.
Beyond that, there’s also the reality that Walt Disney World is (hopefully) hitting the upper limit of crowd levels it can accommodate without increasing ride efficiency. After installing a veritable sea of “please wait here” markers in November, not many more have been added since…because there’s not really room for more. Some areas of the parks are already a literal maze of markers.
Thankfully, Walt Disney World has turned to increasing capacity by increasing ride efficiency. Meaning that more physical dividers have been added to attractions and some roller coasters and other marquee rides (such as Expedition Everest, Slinky Dog Dash, Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster, and Flight of Passage) are now loading every row/seat.
Potentially unpopular opinion, but I’m on board with this. For all of the attractions in question, the ride duration is short, guest orientation is correct, and air flow is good. From an objective risk standpoint, you have far more to worry about dining indoors than doing an outdoor roller coaster that zips around at high speeds (or even an indoor ride, for that matter).
At some attractions, the increased hourly capacity has resulted in plummeting wait times on non-peak days. That’s exactly what we’ve seen with both Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway and Frozen Ever After. There’s actually potential scenario where attendance drops in January and February 2021, and wait times drop even further because of these efficiency gains.
We’re tempted…but ultimately too cautious to make such a bold prediction. Quite simply, there are too many variables at play and unknowns at this point, and we’ve been burned by boldness since reopening. We do believe that a lot of what drove crowd levels sky high last winter will be absent, but other changes could offset that.
With Florida being “fully reopened,” more snowbirds could seek the state out as a temporary escape. Conversely, with a nationwide spike in cases following the holiday season, more people could pump the brakes on travel plans. Along those same lines, people could postpone trips due to the vaccine, opting to wait just a little longer until that’s available to them.
If we had to guess, we’d predict that cancelled events, limited international travel, fears of spiking cases, and optimism/willingness to wait for the vaccine will be the overriding factors, and attendance will drop in January and February 2021 at Walt Disney World. As usual in the post-reopening world, expect weekends to be significantly busier than weekdays since that’s when locals have work off. Same goes for holidays and the dates surrounding them. (Also as always, none of these trends apply to Disney’s Hollywood Studios. It’s always equally busy.)
This analysis is conspicuously confined to the first two months of the year…which probably is not helpful to anyone planning a trip for the other 12 months. We’re even more hesitant to make predictions for those months because there’s even more uncertainty. When will the vaccine be available widely to the general public? When will Walt Disney World further ease or drop physical distancing, capacity caps, and the face mask mandate? When will new attractions debut?
Stretching the predictions a bit further, we’d expect more or less the same through mid-March 2021, but are less confident in that prediction. Once Spring Break season arrives in full force, followed by Easter, all bets are off. Regardless of what happens with Disney’s policies and vaccine distribution, we expect elevated crowd levels. For one thing, Walt Disney World was closed at those times last year, so it’s an easy prediction that the parks will be busier–it’d be true if only one guest showed up.
That’s also when we anticipate that “revenge travel” will really come into play. While special events and international visitors will take a while to come back, Americans will have significant fatigue from the past 12 months (at that point) and be ready to get out, vacation, and do things. U.S. savings rates have soared to record levels over the last year as Americans have spent less on dining, shopping, and leisure–exactly the types of things people do at Walt Disney World.
It’ll still be a while before the parks fully recover–and Disney will need to make some changes to facilitate all of this. However, after initial skepticism last year, we’re now fully on board with the notion of pent-up travel demand and Walt Disney World attendance coming roaring back in 2021. We anticipate that starting around April 2021 and accelerating for pretty much the remainder of the year, further fueled by Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary in October 2021. Of course, this is total guesswork, so it’ll be interesting to see just how wrong we end up being this time. 😉
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you considering a trip this winter, or do the United States’ rising case numbers (or vaccine availability on the horizon) make you want to delay? What are your expectations about crowd levels this year at Walt Disney World? When do you think the ideal time to visit this year will be? Expect more discounts or low crowds for 2021? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment of crowds at WDW? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
My girls and I are excited about going in February. It saddens me about the possible low crowd levels. I don’t mind having the parks a little crowded. I feel like the crowds bring excitement and happiness to the parks. With that said, we are looking forward to going!
Amanda, we were there over Xmas to New Year’s Eve. 35% was fine for us. It seemed pretty crowded.
We just returned from WDW and had the time of our lives. There were 8 of us from 2 families . The parks were great and safe. We stayed off campus at an amazing house about 10 miles away. It was our best find. It had a theatre inside the garage that was like being on a ride at the parks. It had 8 bedrooms and everyone had plenty of room. We had our own private pool and spa. The house was sparkling clean and a great value at about 400 dollars per night. I highly recommend it for any group of 5 or more.
Just got back from 7 wild and adventurous days at WDW 27th – Jan 2nd. We live all things Disney and have been several times before and to Land as well. We went to all the lands including HS and MK twice. And had 1 full day at both Harry Potter worlds. We were at the parks each day literally from 10:30am to close every single night. We didn’t stay at any of the WDW resorts this time but opted for The Grove Resort & Spa (like another helpful reader mentioned) which was about 10 miles away, give or take, depending on the park. We rode Uber/Lyft there and back each day. We had our 3 teens ages 14-18 with us (another reason we stayed off site) and could attempt to do this without losing our minds. Ha! We had a REALLY great and memorable time but it was DEFINITELY a very different experience and VERY CROWDED “feeling” due to in large all the guidelines. Many times you wouldn’t even have known a pandemic was going on (well except for the sea of masks) LOL! We were lucky having older children so we could divide and conquer so that we could ride as many rides as possible despite the long wait times/crowd factor. The lines were consistently long for most of the popular rides and attractions majority of the day with the exception of maybe the last 20-30 minutes of the park closing. There were long lines just to stand in line for the shops as well…Universal was even more packed. That place was absolutely nuts!! Even during non-Covid era that would’ve drove anyone mad. Honestly, we were/are okay with the crowd factor and understood this was the risk as we picked the most busy time of year to go. While we were prepared for “crowds” and having to follow Disney guidelines mentally but were not prepared for the dozens of scenarios we witnessed of cast/team members mask-shaming folks. They would literally yell/snap at guests from the distance or out from corners or stations or even come right up into the guests face. Felt like staff members and literal “mask police” all on guard for any offender they could find. It honestly gave me anxiety when I’d see them. Like constantly watching and hovering. It was strange.
I felt bad for the people trying to take a quick picture off by themselves away from crowds or even having a snack or drink on the ground. Moms having snacks with their little kids on the ground even. They all pulled their masks down under their chin not completely off. I got snapped at for not pulling my mask up ‘fast enough’ after I took a sip of my water bottle. Was also told to “munch on my food in my mask”….My husband was scolded very loudly upon entry to MK by “Covid security crew” for his mask that had 3 layers and a carbon filter in it, but had that little tiny “vent” thing on the side. He went to take it off to change it to a different one for her and that team member flipped out on him for doing it right then and there.
Also we weren’t prepared for “the Covid announcements” constantly Interrupting your “magical “ experience every 10 minutes. I understand they need to do this in order to reopen and for liability sakes but geez Maybe could they do it 2-3x) throughout the hour? It literally was announced every 10 to 15 minutes in every single part of each park we went to and even inside the actual queue.
And unfortunately the Cast members were for the most part a mixed bag of sometimes welcoming and friendly but mostly got the feeling they were annoyed to be there or on a trip ready to call anyone out if they’re not following the rules. I’m thinking this is all taking a toll on them as well. I don’t blame them for being grumpy one bit.
All in all it was a great trip but Knowing what we know now we would have just waited a little longer until things return.
Girlinohau, I did not see any of the hostility from cast members that you mention. I think you are exaggerating. I doubt any cast member ‘flipped out.’
As for you husband’s mask WDW clearly stated what the standards are for masks. Vented masks are not acceptable. In fact, vented masked are not recommended by CDC….period.
Cast Members seemed few and far between. Where the ‘lack of Disney friendliness’ was more apparent was with some of the food vendors. In normal times, I’m not sure WDW would not be hiring them. My wife got snapped at by a guy whom she couldn’t understand because of his thick accent when she asked him to repeat himself.
We had a Great time during our annual Christmas visit. Stayed at the Broadwalk Villas (first time there) it’s a very nice resort and located so we could walk to Epcot and Hollywood Studios if we preferred and we did. Since we were unable to park hop we chose Epcot Hollywood Studios each 1 day and the 2 days at the Magic Kingdom. It’s a tradition that our last day is spent there until the close. Really felt safe during our visit. Everyone was complying with the mask requirements and when in line the social distancing. So looking forward to our December 2021 visit to celebrate Walt Disney’s Worlds 50th Anniversary. Oh and just a note for those of you who that like to eat at The Columbia Harbour House Restaurant located at Liberty Square. Love the seafood. They were not opened when we were there but had setup a temporary location over in Tomorrow Land. They didn’t have the full menu but they did have the seafood.
My immediate family drove this year rather than fly and was in the Disney bubble for five days in November and we thought it felt very safe and we had a fantastic time. This past week we returned to Florida but this time just a beach area – what a difference. I am not extremely risk adverse but I felt much more nervous given the obviously lower levels of protocol and enforcement. So I would not hesitate to return to Disney. If only it weren’t so darned expensive!
A dance competition that was to take place at the Wide World of Sports the end of this month has been tentatively rescheduled for mid to end March.
At this point Dance and Cheer Worlds is still scheduled to take place the third weekend in April. I do not know if the many teams from foreign countries will be able to travel to the US.
I wanted to offer a little insight about the spring break crowds. My sister’s school in Mobile, Alabama, has cancelled spring break in order to make up for the days they missed in the fall because of covid. Spring breaks in that region coincide with Mardi Gras, which would have been mid-February this year. Also, I obviously have no idea if her school is the only one cancelling spring break or if other schools will do the same. So take it with a grain of salt, but this may or may not impact March spring break crowds.
Another change to Spring Break crowds are delayed starts and subsequent calendar alterations. My kids are still having a Spring Break, but it is about 3 weeks later than normal…and to that point, our summer dismissal is about 3 weeks later as well.
We went in August for two weeks. And we plan to go back in March for two more. We live on the West Coast. Disney used to have a resort out here. WDW has become our new “home resort”. Happy to continue to exploit the smaller crowds, dirt cheap airfare, and fantastic (non-Disney) hotel rates.
If you don’t mind where have you been staying?
We just returned from being at WDW 12/25 – 12/31. I have no empirical evidence but my ‘lyin’ eyes’ tell me that the parks were above that 35% threshold.
The Magic Kingdom was packed outside of Main Street. We were able to get onto the Jungle Cruise in about 30 minutes. Pirates of the Caribbean was considerably longer. It’s a Small World was about 30 minutes close to 8:30.
For Epcot were there 12/25 – 12/26, and 12/30. 12/25-26 were chilly (40s-low 50s) so there were a lot less people. At closing time at Epcot on 12/25 you could literally walk right up to Frozen Ever After and get on.. However, on our last day (12/30) the lines were extremely long even at closing time of 9:00.
Animal Kingdom was also pretty crowded. The Banshee ride was still a very long wait.
I was somewhat concerned about people getting bottled up at certain choke points. People would get crowded together. As a result, Social distancing was basically ignored. And there were no Cast Members around to herd people.
But I must say that Disney does a pretty good job of providing information on protocols. In fact, there are signs saying that you will be asked to leave if you do not comply. I was happy to see almost 100% compliance with mask wearing wherever we went.
I honestly do not think it was much more over 35%. *Maybe* up to 40%….. It “felt” crowded, for sure, but MK was a vast difference than it was normally during this time of year.
Wait times were up from July/August, but well below the average of a typical late December. At one point, I was walking through Fantasyland and noticed that there was so much empty space to walk in. Yes, there were definitely some bottleneck areas, but usually the entire park is a bottleneck.
I hope that after spring break, the end of April, early May, will see decrease in numbers. It is the flower and garden show which I had cancelled last year. Nice weather hopefully. Can’t wait to see your further projections, as difficult as they are right now, for that time period. I am hoping for more shows, no masks, and fast pass, but just want to get back….safely. My group, all seniors, should have had vaccine by then!
Excellent analysis and simple admission of “we don’t know,”
I doubt anybody knows, including Disney. They have a sense of future bookings, but those trends could change quickly based on the progress of the pandemic.
Much will depend on the speed of vaccine distribution, and that’s behind anticipated schedule at the moment.
But in thinking of future “crowds” – where we are more concerned with lines than actual attendance numbers – the truly big question is the interplay between increasing attendance vs increased operations.
When will entertainment be brought back? Character greetings? Normal queues? EMH? Longer park hours?
Some things can be adjusted quickly like park hours. Bringing back entertainment could take weeks or months of planning.
If attendance increases faster than operationally returns, then crowds (defined as lines, waits, etc) may skyrocket as we get deeper into 2021. Spring/summer could possibly be historically bad crowds if they increase capacity to 50% without sufficiently restoring operations.
Conversely, if they start to restore operations in anticipation of returning guests (start re-hiring entertainment staff in February instead of waiting till July, for example), the crowds may feel very light.
Most years, operations are pretty constant. A new ride may open, a people eating attraction may go down for refurb. But overall, the ride/attraction/entertainment capacity of the park is fairly constant and predictable. So evaluating “crowds” is primarily predicting attendance. This year, you have to consider both attendance AND operations. A nearly impossible prediction.
I am a DVC member and have reservations from Jan 15-22. Still on the fence because of Covid spikes in Florida and around Orange County. Most likely a last minute cancellation might happen but I and so ready to go. I am 63 in good health and so is my family… just nervous….
Hi, Edward, we’re here now. Definitely crowded but mask wearing is good and the crowds don’t linger – just passing through. I’m sure it will be better by Jan 15. Hope you make it!
Edward, if you are going to be safe anywhere it’s in the “Disney Bubble.” I was impressed by the protocols. Outside of Disney in the rest of Orange County…that’s much riskier.
Edward: I’m 70 and have gone to WDW three times this fall. Four nights in Oct, Four nights in Nov and four nights in Dec. Also a DVC member and stayed at three different resorts. Florida is safe. I’ll be back at the end of July, looking forward to Festival of the Arts at Epcot.
Don’t look at test results, look at hospitalizations and deaths. Don’t know where you are from, but NY is much worse off than Florida.
I scheduled a 4 night stay for 11/27-12/1/21. I may be totally sorry I did but historically this is one of the lower crowd time periods. We’ve never been to WDW during the Christmas holiday season (we were there in mid-January and over Halloween, 2020). Can’t wait to celebrate both the holiday season and the WDW 50 anniversary!!!!!!
A few years ago, I visited during the first week of December, and I loved it. One word of caution: do not rely on weather forecasts when packing! Temperature forecast was mid-50’s during the day and low-40s at night, so that’s what we packed for. The reality was low-40’s during the day and into the 30’s at night! We’re from the northeast and used to cold weather, but we were freezing. For the first time ever, we didn’t stay until the closing hours. One night, we even left EPCOT three hours early!!! So, my advice is to be prepared for a cold snap, and enjoy a great time of year to visit WDW!
Had exactly the same experiences as Kathleen in 2018. It was actually slightly warmer in late Nov / Early Dec in Kansas City than in Orlando. Froze our asses off despite sweaters, light jacket, gloves, a stocking cap and a heavy long sleeve shirt at the Xmas party and left many hours early. Temperature probably under 40 and wind chill by then.
When we went in January 2020 we had a really nasty weather day at Hollywood Studios. High was like 45 and rainy/ windy most of the day. When we went to Sea World, lots of rain but temp went up to mid-70’s. You just never know…
Our family vacation for a family of 20 are coming to Walt Disney world from Kentucky and hopefully things will be back to normal or close to it in July I am really looking forward to bringing the family and having a great great great time we were there in2015 and the children were smaller and now they’re a little older so I’m hoping they will enjoy it more. Everyone stay safe and try to enjoy the time at Disney when you do visit
We booked our trip for spring break in march. Praying they open up princess dining & shows by then! Also fast passes would be amazing. I think it’s crazy to make children wear masks. My kids have never worn one.. so we have to practice between now & March.
I think Disney in the summer is going to be nuts. That’s when it’s likely that anxiety decreases. The fall will be subdued because after what’s possibly going to end up being a full year of no in person school, parents aren’t going to be ready to pull their kids on a random week. That’s also when you’d expect people to go back to offices. Christmas 2021: unimaginably packed.
Just my personal feelings, but as schools return to more in person learning (hopefully by fall), I imagine parents will be less likely to take kiddos out of school for a week for a Disney vacation. I think there is a real need for “normalcy”. Fall and early winter (save holidays and school breaks) might not be too bad. Or, I’m 100% wrong 🙂
“After installing a veritable sea of “please wait here” markers in November, not many more have been added since…because there’s not really room for more. Some areas of the parks are already a literal maze of markers.”
That was a game I liked to play on our trips this fall (Oct, Nov and Dec). Where do these markers lead? Which attraction?
Spot on analysis! There were a million factors that had to be navigated carefully, most with several obstacles and huge learning curves. I really do think with the increase in vaccinations, crowds will continue to soar in 2021. And if we open borders again to international travel-for SURE!
I had my reservation for WDW cancelled in April 2021, as we live in Spain.
I have rebooked for March 2021, I have flights and and accommodation booked. Do you think I should wait or cancel.
I am 75 and this might be my last chance.
Go for it! Enjoy life!