Disney World News: Attendance Drops 80%, New Hours & Journey into Imagination ‘Dream’
We’re back with a Walt Disney World news & rumor round-up! This time we have updates on early November 2020 park hours, attendance woes, good news for Annual Passholders, and some wishful thinking about a potential reimagining of Journey into Imagination. First, a look at Walt Disney World’s year over year declines, and how that compares to Universal Orlando’s numbers.
According to an analyst note from Deutsche Bank (reported by Orlando Sentinel), attendance at Walt Disney World is down 80% year over year in the month since reopening. This comes from research by Bryan Kraft and Benjamin Soff, who looked at proprietary geolocation data to make their estimates.
Deutsche Bank reports that EPCOT and Animal Kingdom are outperforming Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, with Universal Orlando’s parks outperforming all of Walt Disney World. This is especially true on Saturdays when attendance at Universal is “only” down 64% from last year.
Some of this may seem counter-intuitive, so let’s offer some quick commentary. The idea that EPCOT and Animal Kingdom are outperforming Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom seems implausible on its face. However, keep in mind that this is relative to last July and August.
If you’ve read our extensive commentary about summer now being off-season at Walt Disney World, you know that EPCOT always struggles from June through August. Between the baseline being lower and the park having a higher capacity, that one makes sense.
Next, Disney’s Hollywood Studios. If judging by Park Pass reservations, DHS is the most popular park at Walt Disney World right now. However, this is where it’s important to remember that popularity isn’t the same as attendance or guest utilization. Even in normal times, DHS has the lowest capacity of any park at Walt Disney World. With most of its shows dark, that’s doubly true now.
As for Universal Orlando, that probably comes down to a few things. First, there’s no reservation system or anything to deter locals from visiting. Second, they had over a month head-start on Disney, during a time when cases were low and their biggest competitor wasn’t open. Finally, Universal has gone out of its way to attract locals with discounts, ticket extensions, and other incentives.
This is a pretty stark contrast to Disney’s approach. While it’s unclear which strategy will be vindicated in the long run, in the near term, Disney’s approach appears to be a colossal miscalculation. Per Disney CEO Bob Chapek, locals and Annual Passholders make up a disproportionate number of guests right now, as many tourists cancelled trips last quarter.
Despite the company being aware of these demographics woes, Disney is still actively deterring Annual Passholders from visiting and practically encouraging AP cancellations. In fairness, this approach was undoubtedly established before Florida’s case numbers spiked, but Walt Disney World has been really slow to pivot.
With attendance being down significantly, park hours cut, and tens of thousands of frontline Cast Members still temporarily furloughed, it’s been a rough reopening for Walt Disney World. Realistically, the near term future is not much brighter with further cutbacks and belt-tightening measures likely.
It’s going to take a stretch of low case numbers, discounts, more entertainment, improved economy for the middle class, reduction of quarantines, and more for Walt Disney World to truly bounce back. Obviously, a lot of that is beyond Disney’s control.
Nevertheless, the Walt Disney Company plans to lift temporary salary reductions for executives beginning on August 23, per a report in Deadline. As you might recall, Disney implemented pay cuts as a cost-cutting measure several months ago, as a “temporary action” that would remain in effect until Disney saw a “substantive recovery” in business.
At the time, the Walt Disney Company announced in an email to Cast Members that executive chairman Bob Iger would forgo his entire salary, and CEO Bob Chapek would take a 50% pay cut. Additionally, all senior executives would take a reduction in pay—all VPs will have their salaries reduced by 20%, SVPs by 25%, and EVPs and above 30%.
Even shortly after this was announced, the feel good story was tainted by reports of backlash from Disney executives who were furious about the cuts and trying to battle against the temporary pay reductions.
I don’t think you really need my commentary on this. Read the room, guys. This isn’t just poor optics, it’s also a reflection of the chasm between frontline Cast Members and the company’s management. (Not to mention that there has been no substantive recovery in the business, even if the inflated stock price says otherwise.)
Next, some good news. Walt Disney World has once again redistributed reservations from the theme park ticket holders and resort guest “buckets” to Annual Passholders. If you feel like you’ve already read this story, it’s because this is the third time in the last week that Disney has done this–after only doing it twice total in the prior month-plus.
Consequently, there’s currently availability for Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom, and EPCOT beginning August 22 and availability for all four parks on August 23, 2020. This is the first time DHS has been available on a weekend for Annual Passholders in a while (previously, the earliest you could book it was Halloween).
We’re going to assume this trend will continue given the above 80% drop in attendance, but it’s unfortunate that Walt Disney World couldn’t figure this out before so many Annual Passholders chose to cancel due to lack of Park Pass availability. Better late than never, though.
Now some bad news. Walt Disney World has updated its calendar for all four theme parks through November 7, 2020. Previously, hours were listed through Halloween, so this is essentially only another week’s worth of hours. During that stretch, all four parks keep their previously-reduced September and October schedules (see Fall Hours Cut at Walt Disney World).
Notably, November 8, 2020 would normally be (would have been?) the start of the holiday season at Walt Disney World, including the first night of Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party. While we do not expect that event to occur, we do anticipate the Christmas season being celebrated in some capacity.
Expect to see an announcement about the holiday season simultaneous with another calendar update. Whether that ends up being bad news or good news depends upon resort occupancy, whether Disney wants to play things cautiously, or if management wants to try to boost attendance and numbers during what’s normally the most lucrative season of the year.
The response to the reduced hours in September and October was not good, and Disney undoubtedly saw a surge of cancellations as a result. Between that and pretty much every decision they’ve made being ill-advised, at some point management will realize that Walt Disney World is not recession or pandemic-proof, and further cuts only exacerbate the problem of low demand. We’re optimistic (perhaps naively so) that lesson will be learned sooner rather than later.
Finally, some positive news–or at least, positive daydreaming/wishful thinking. In the “65 Years of Theme Park Evolution” panel discussion hosted by the TEA@USC, Disney Legend Tony Baxter and Tom Morris discussed a range of topics including Disneyland and the future of Journey into Imagination.
In discussing Journey into Imagination, Tony Baxter said “I just wish we would do the ride over. I would come back out of retirement to do that ride over.” Both former Imagineers played pivotal roles in creating the original Journey into Imagination. At past D23 events, Baxter hasn’t been shy about his fondness for the attraction and its characters, and desire to restore the pavilion to its past glory. So this is not particularly noteworthy or novel in that sense.
However, his comments are probably gaining more traction this go-round for a few reasons. First, the USC panel was livestreamed on YouTube (the video has since been deleted) whereas D23 panels are not broadcast and recording is usually strictly prohibited. Second, Tony Baxter is coming out of retirement to help redo another one of his attractions with the Overhaul of Splash Mountain to a Princess and the Frog Attraction. Finally, there have been credible rumors of a Journey into Imagination reimagining.
Despite all of that, I don’t think there’s any chance that a Journey into Imagination redo is going to happen anytime soon, with or without Tony Baxter’s involvement. Had this year played out differently, I’d say there’s a decent possibility that this is a hint of something to come. But it didn’t and there’s not.
I’d still love to hold out a sliver of hope that the final piece of the EPCOT puzzle, to be announced at the 2021 D23 Expo, is a new incarnation of Journey into Imagination. Nevertheless, I don’t think it hurts for there to be “buzz” among Walt Disney World fans about a redo of Journey into Imagination; the more interest and excitement about it, the more likely it is to happen at some point in the future. At least, I hope. If I could will this “rumor” into reality, it would’ve come to fruition already. Sadly, I think we’re probably in for another 5+ years of the current version.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think of this Walt Disney World news? Do you believe that EPCOT and Animal Kingdom (as well as Universal Orlando) are outperforming Magic Kingdom and Hollywood Studios? Thoughts on the Disney Park Pass availability changes or early November 2020 park hours? Hopeful that Journey into Imagination is reimagined at some point in your lifetime? Do you agree or disagree with our assessments? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
If only Disney Mgmt would pay attention. I personally would pay a fee just to go to Epcot to eat at night. It wouldn’t hurt to stay open 1 hour longer and sell 15 or 20 dollar tickets to gwt in. Then we could eat.
I have wondered for the last few years if Disney has been trying to cull the ranks of their annual pass holders. In the normal environment the most effective tool for this is probably pricing (which has increased significantly) but COVID has provided a myriad of other ways to get holders to walk from their passes. I know many argue whether Disney fully accounts for all possible ramifications of this move but I find it unlikely that folks surrendering their annual passes is a big surprise to Disney. The math for Disney – not just park admission prices but also annual passes, hotel costs, DVC costs, all the ancillary costs – plus the non financial benefits has to be incredibly complex as these are all interrelated. I also suspect all of Disney actions assume a certain level of loyalty that will return over the next year or two – which is almost impossible to predict while we are still in the midst of the battle. If they are right they will emerge stronger than ever…if they are wrong we will likely see discounts and special deals rolling out to a degree seldom seen…but I doubt we see those until senior mgmt determine their estimates are wrong ( I would love to see these now too, but combining these with returning loyalty could overrun capacity catastrophically – better to be slow and steady than fast and lose control). Grab your popcorn – Disney is going to be a fascinating study in business recovery over the next year or two…
Thanks Tom for all the information you provided on your blog! I’m sad to say that we’ve canceled our trip for November, but I feel like your blog and the comments of others helped us make the decision. It’s just to pricey for us and we only go like every three years. So we’re going to wait and see what the future holds!!!!!
Tom, I would also like to express my gratitude for your well written articles. I think one of the intangibles that Disney is neglecting is that Passholders also act as informal ambassadors for the parks. As Passholders, my wife and I are frequently asked for advice for people considering planning a Disney Trip. If Disney turns on the Passholders, I feel that there will be a ripple effect as there will be a lot of people no longer recommending Disney.
Waiting on deeper discounts for a staycation. I like the idea of going to Disney but the price doesn’t reflect the reality of what’s happening. The price of the hotels are not even close to what 4 star hotels in the area are going for right now. So I’ll wait it out. Either the price will drop or it won’t, it’s pretty low stakes for me. I’ll just go another time if it doesn’t or go somewhere else.
I’ve been doing a lot of reading but somehow have not been able to find the answer to two questions. I would appreciate it if someone could answer these. Number one does anyone know if there are any buffets that are open including concierge buffets or even the animal kingdom concierge buffets. Number two I am assuming but this is only an assumption, that no one at Disney cares about wearing a mask when you are away from people even though you are on hotel grounds? (I realize they are mandatory in the parks)
Randy, there are zero concierge/club level lounges or areas open at this time. There aren’t any true buffets since the ones that are open are serving family style, like at Chef Mickey’s. Most are still closed.
I can answer the second question. Wearing a mask is required everywhere on hotel grounds except for your room and special stations that they have set up around the hotel. There’s relaxation stations in the parks of course, but I was surprised to see them at areas around the outside of the hotel, too.
I would not recommend taking the masks off when just strolling around, however. If a mask falls in the forest and no one is around to see it, then it won’t make an impact. But it’s not like the hotel grounds are total ghost towns, and its not worth the risk of possibly infecting someone else who strolls around a corner into you, or getting dirty looks or reprimanded by staff.
We are planning a December, Christmas 4 day stay at Wilderness Lodge. Do you think the Lodge will have the Christmas tree up in the lobby this year? That’s why we always chose the Lodge to stay over the Xmas season because of that tree! It is absolutely magnificent!
Who knows, Tom, maybe the Disney brass will re-imagine Journey if Disney stays in the doldrums. A couple of really poor quarters might be enough to shatter the arrogance of Disney brass, but I doubt it, unless the stock price plummets. That’s really all they care about; not guest experience, nor anything else, in my opinion. The entitled response of the mid-level Disney VPs to moderate pay cuts really say it all. But they won’t blink if they are “ forced “ to inflict 100% pay cuts on many of the furloughed CMs as a result of poor decision making at the top. If it comes to that, the Disney Board of Directors should toss the entire senior leadership of Disney Corporation. ( And maybe the stockholders should toss the Board and elect a new one )
I just cancelled my Disney trip for September and we plan to go to universal instead. It’s cheaper, they’re offering buy 2 days, get 2 days free for passes. Disney isn’t offering any kind of incentive or discount for the inconvenience of no fireworks, cancelled dining plans, and further reduced hours. So why would I pay full price for a partial experience?!
I cancelled my trip in January despite being one of the few to get a marathon bib. It just doesn’t sound like fun to spend that much money on hotel, meals and transportation for a partial experience at full price. There are zero incentives for racers to come into the parks to spend money and there’s a good chance it will get cancelled anyway.
Journey into Imagination is one of my favorites at Epcot. A redo/update would be an incredible journey, I imagine!
I think that Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party will be happening this year since there was a decrease of COVID-19 cases in Florida and, as a Christmas present for the little girls, the Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique will be available at the same time and, starting this New Year’s day, the first little girls, who had went to the Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique, could meet three of the Disney princesses in the Royal Hall ☺ï¸.
All.of this is expected though. Sure universals express kicks Disney’s fast pass any day of the week. Now with this universal just pulls away. Time for some folks at Disney to wake up. Reducing upper management salaries when they make millions already doesn’t amount to shit. How about they reduced theirs while increasing the CM salary by 20 to 30 percent?
Just spent 5 days at DW. Personally, having to wear a mask makes trip a no go. Took many “relaxation station” breaks, but it still wasn’t fun. Didn’t want any pictures with masks on so didn’t do any and wouldn’t break the rules and remove mask. Not DW fault as I felt they were doing the best they could considering the circumstances. 95% of guests were following guidelines, but I saw quite a few noses and a few individuals blatantly disregarding guidelines. Cast members were exceptionally superb at MK, Epcot and AK. HS needs some work. JMHO.
As far as passholders right now, they create demand that isn’t supported by revenue. This means they fill queues, make messes, tax Guest Relations, and don’t pay a daily fee when they pass through the turnstiles. Do they spend money? Of course! But not nearly at the rate of a traditional guest, and often at a discount. So if it means having to add labor hours with no additional revenue, of course they’ll have to make some hard decisions. There’s a kinetic value to having people there inside the gates, but if they can find that sweet spot for costs/revenue that will be great for everyone willing to go to the resort right now.
“Do they spend money? Of course! But not nearly at the rate of a traditional guest, and often at a discount.”
That’s absolutely true, and a hard truth many Annual Passholders don’t want to acknowledge.
However, right now there’s little to no opportunity cost–the slots filled by APs are not otherwise being used by tourists, so unless APs are a net daily loss (which I highly doubt given merchandise and food & beverage sales) it doesn’t make sense to not open up more capacity to them.
not sure i agree. When we out-of-staters have an annual pass we visit four times a year, stay on site and eat all our meals within Disney, buy souvenirs, etc. If we stay 5 or 6 nights time then the park tickets are ‘free’ only for the fourth trip. I know we are outnumbered by locals but I am fairly sure our contribution to the Disney vault exceeds that of the infrequent visitor.
That’s not true we shop a ton when we have AP (discount on regular Pandora charms is a plus) go on tours, attend festivals several times, And we buy after hours tickets and plan trips to other Disney properties.
This year since we don’t have AP we won’t do any Christmas shopping there. We aren’t buying pins, we aren’t eating on property. We spend quite a bit spread out and it’s dependable. Some of our favorite restaurants are on property and we haven’t eaten at them at all this year. Disney makes up the bulk of our entertainment budget for the year.
We visited both Disney and Universal this summer, and will say, hands-down, Universal was a better experience. This is mostly due to the benefit of the Unlimited Express Pass. Although we didn’t “need” it on every ride, it saved us at least 15 minute waits on the popular rides, and allowed the kids to ride multiple times. Add these 15-minute increments up over a day, ad that’s a lot of time. Meanwhile, at fast-pass- lacking Disney, we had to wait in the standby lines, each and every time. Sometimes it was 5 minutes, sometimes, 45, adding up to a while lot of waiting each day. It just didn’t make sense for Disney to take that perk away, given that they’ve trained their fans well in using it. Having to re-develop a touring plan without fast passes was not as pleasant as visiting Universal with Unlimited Express still in place. Way to go, UO!
Hi Tom! We love your updates! I may have missed this somewhere but have you talked about what rope drop is like during Covid? I’ve always been a diehard rope dropped but I wondered what that looks like with social distancing. Thanks!
Tom, After reading your comment “practically encouraging AP cancellations”, the question crossed my mind “Do you think Disney will eventually do away with Annual Passes?” I sure hope not.
Nah – passholders buouy the parks during the low seasons, and are a valuable commodity. I think that this is a temporary thing.
A re-imagined Journey must contain Figment and One Little Spark song. Otherwise I am content with the current version.
Based on everything you’ve posted and FL friends who’ve told me of great visits at the parks recently we’re still 100% in for early December and wish I could move it up even with the shorter hours.
I do worry that a perfect storm is brewing in December where crowd size doubles, Disney isn’t ready, and December visits are a disaster of short hours and super long lines.
Thinking of adjusting my park plan from 4 days to 7 with the shorter hours and all.
You mentioned in your article that “ we do anticipate the Christmas season being celebrated in some capacity”. Do you think the parks and resorts will still be decorated in early November and will they be decorated to the same level as in the past?