Fifth Theme Park at Disney World Approved in New 2045 Plan
Walt Disney World has laid the foundation to build a fifth theme park. Well, the figurative foundation–not the literal one. That’s still at least a decade away–perhaps 20 years or more. This post covers the 2045 Comprehensive Plan that was approved by the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District, and why we still are convinced a 5th gate is still a mythical creature that’s unlikely to happen. Ever.
Fans have renewed hopes for a 5th gate last year based on this 2045 Comprehensive Plan, which arises out of the settlement of a lawsuit over the former Reedy Creek Improvement District. As a result, a joint development agreement was to be reached between the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD) and Walt Disney World. This meant that the 2032 Comprehensive Plan was deemed null and void, and that the prior 2020 Comprehensive Plan would remain in effect until a new plan had been approved.
Also as part of that settlement, the CFTOD agreed to consult with Walt Disney World while reviewing and amending the current plan and creating a new comprehensive plan. In other words, the new 2045 Comprehensive Plan is the result of a joint collaboration between Disney and CFTOD, not just randomly arrived-at judgments of the latter.
It’s worth noting that this same settlement commited the company to invest $17 billion in Walt Disney World over the next 10 to 20 years. Under the terms of the deal, Disney is required to invest at least $8 billion within the first 10 years of the agreement. So anyone who is skeptical that Disney’s expansion plans might be quietly cancelled…that’s unlikely.
In any case, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Comprehensive Plan has finally been approved, revealing specific details about the district’s plans for land use. If you’d like, you can read the full ~400 page document for yourself here (it starts on page 201). I don’t know why you’d want to, though.
In terms of basic background, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District 2045 Comprehensive Plan is intended to provide the basis for future decisions regarding land use, development, conservation and infrastructure. It serves as the District’s official policy for the use of both private and public lands, as well as the Comprehensive Plan for the Cities of Bay Lake and Lake Buena Vista. The Plan provides a framework for expansion of the unique uses in the District, while managing growth, protecting the environment, ensuring health and safety, and enhancing the quality of development.
The CFTOD’s 2045 Comprehensive Plan continues the high standard of planning already undertaken and extends its purview ten years into the future. The Plan’s three overall functions are: 1) to govern the location and intensity of land use and development by providing the foundation for regulating proposed new projects; 2) to convey advance direction to the private sector by stating clearly the District’s expectations for growth and conservation; and 3) to guide public investment in new facilities, such as roads, water systems, and water quality facilities.
The district (first Reedy Creek and now CFTOD) has been doing modern versions of these plans since 1991. It began the process during the construction of the Disney-MGM Studios, realizing more cohesive master plans for comprehensive land use planning were needed. The 2045 Comprehensive Plan builds on the interim 2020 Plan, and reflects changes to the prior 2010 Comprehensive Plan. Suffice to say, it’s the most consequential permanent plan in a while.
Obviously, there’s a lot of ground covered in ~400 pages, and much of it concerns what Walt Disney World can build. This includes major expansions in office space–by over 1 million square feet, 1.7 million square feet of restaurant/retail space, and 53,076 hotel rooms (the changes to room key increases is perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the update, in that these limits might actually present a meaningful ceiling on growth).
In the 2045 Comprehensive Plan, the CFTOD has also approved a fifth major theme park at Walt Disney World. This is an increase in the allowed maximum from a 2010 plan, formalizing what was penciled into the 2020 plan. This 5th gate is approved beginning in 2035, and running through the conclusion of the plan in 2045.
The 2045 Comprehensive Plan views a major theme park as being on the scale of Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom, with an estimated size of approximately 445 acres. There are currently 4 major theme parks at Walt Disney World (the ones listed above).
The technical definition of a major theme park per the plan is: “A theme park that is designed for multiple-day visits. The exhibitions and rides are extensive and normally require more than one day to experience.” (Not sure how Animal Kingdom meets this!) A new major theme park would have a daily population of 50,000 people (guests plus employees and others), which would put it above DHS or DAK.
In addition to a single major theme park allocated in the comprehensive plan, the plan allows for two more minor theme parks. A minor theme park would be smaller or more niche experience, with a projected land area of around 147 acres. There are currently 3 minor theme parks at Walt Disney World: Typhoon Lagoon, Blizzard Beach, and ESPN Wide World of Sports.
The window for the first minor park opens in 2030, with a second minor park being on the table starting in 2040. Both options extend through the duration of the plan. Minor theme park is defined as: “A theme park that is designed for single-day or partial-day visits. Visitors are expected to spend shorter amounts of time than they would at a major theme park.” Curiously, a new minor theme park would have a population of 1,780 people, which is about half the population of the water parks (when open).
Perhaps what’s more interesting about these new major and minor parks is the redlines from a prior draft of the plan. Previous versions of the minor and major park were both smaller. Moreover, this expands what could be construed as a minor or major park to “expansion,” meaning a massive expansion plan could seemingly qualify as a new gate under the terms of the plan. Perhaps that’s how Walt Disney World will market Villains Land: “it’s basically a 5th gate within our 1st gate, if you don’t think about it too hard.”
These new minor and major theme parks are not official projects–this should not be construed as a “leak” or “sneak peek” of what’s to come. To the contrary, the 2045 Comprehensive Plan specifically states that no plans for future theme parks are under review.
Essentially, what the 2045 Comprehensive Plan is accomplishing is laying the groundwork for new minor or major theme parks in its land use plan. Although Disney may not be considering such plans today, if the business environment changes in the future such that new parks are deemed necessary, they can be built without spending another half-decade on rewriting the rulebook (e.g. this plan).
One way or another, though, the CFTOD does expect Walt Disney World’s daytime visitor count to increase dramatically. Based on current attendance and occupancy numbers, the district estimates that the “functional” daytime population of Walt Disney World is between 205,000 and 307,000, whereas that number is expected to balloon to 335,000 to 475,000 by 2045–and the bulk of that growth will occur in the final 10 years of the plan (the 2035 range is 243,000 to 366,000). So someone believes that something big is on the horizon!
Again, we cannot underscore enough that Walt Disney World currently has no plans to construct a fifth major theme park or any minor theme parks, for that matter. None. Nada. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Keep in mind that this is the operation that wasn’t even opening the two existing water parks in its portfolio for 5 years! And the plan was to keep the seasonal rotation in 2025 until overwhelming demand during spring break forced Disney’s hand.
Fans are nevertheless excited, because surely this language was included purposefully because Walt Disney World is laying the groundwork to build a 5th gate in the next decade, right? We highly doubt it.
The agreement simply gives Disney the autonomy to build a 5th park–keeping its options open–without having to revisit the development agreement. Seriously, don’t read too much into this. It’s like how the land on your home might be zoned or conditionally approved for an ADU, even if you have no plans of building one.
So why do this if there’s no appetite to build a 5th theme park? Probably because Disney has learned its lesson from its dealings with the government. First in Florida, with the dismantling of the former Reedy Creek Improvement District, but also in California with the City of Anaheim and previously cancelled projects such as the original Eastern Gateway.
Actually, this is somewhat similar to the “pitch” for DisneylandForward, which showcased a ton of possibilities on large swaths of land beyond the existing theme park boundaries. Disney touted Fantasy Springs from Tokyo DisneySea and other envelope-pushing attractions they could build next to Pixar Place Hotel and on the Toy Story Parking lot.
Instead, we’re getting expansions and redevelopment that are largely within the existing footprint of the combined parks. The whole goal with DisneylandForward was to open the door so that Disney could do what they wanted without interference from Anaheim. The pitch was big and bold, and needed to be since it needed support from voters in Anaheim. The reality looks good, but doesn’t quite match that!
There are over a half-dozen compelling reasons why the company won’t build a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World. We’ve covered those in excruciating detail in Why a 5th Theme Park Will NOT Be Built at Disney World in the Next Decade. I guess we can now extend that to the next two decades, as this plan runs through 2045.
The only reason the title does not end with “In My Lifetime” is because I plan on living an obscenely long time–we’re talking mid triple digits–and it’s impossible to foresee what could happen once we hit Walt Disney World’s 100th Anniversary.
Not much has changed on that front, so rather than rehashing all of that, I’ll share some quick bullet points before adding new thoughts:
- Efficiency & Ease: Disney’s current focus is largely increasing utilization of the existing parks through redevelopment, not true expansion.
- Iger and D’Amaro Statements: The current and future CEO never tease a 5th gate, and always specifically say they want to expand the existing domestic parks.
- Too Expensive: Universal spent $7 Billion on Epic Universe with much of that pre-inflation. A fifth gate in 2035 on par with that would easily exceed $10 billion (adjusted for real and Imagineering inflation). Perhaps closer to $15 billion.
- Cannibalization:Â Decades after opening, Animal Kingdom still struggles to pull its own weight. A fifth park is likely to pull attendance away from existing gates.
- Average American Vacation: The average American’s vacation is between 4 and 6 days long, and that average has been on the decline for the last couple of decades; Central Florida doesn’t get enough international visitors to pick up the slack.
- Labor Pool: Staffing shortages are largely resolved in the parks, but it’s still not perfect. Central Florida has a tight labor market, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed person. As new construction keeps happening throughout the region and America’s population ages–without alternative labor sources–this is unlikely to change (barring massive productivity gains via automation).
- Infrastructure Costs: More cost-effective to expand (actually expand) the existing parks, which all have room to grow per the Comprehensive 2045 Plan. Theme parks require new toll plazas, ticket booths, turnstiles, backstage facilities, roads, transportation hubs, and other infrastructure that already exists in support of the existing theme parks. Infrastructure expenses are not insignificant, and it’s difficult to justify their expenditures when the existing parks can be built-out without incurring all of these same costs. Added infrastructure also compounds labor costs (see above).
Turning to new commentary, I’d also add that the jury is still out on the wisdom of Comcast building Epic Universe. Sure, fans love that Universal Orlando swung for the fences and bet big with Epic Universe. It’s a great park with great rides and bold ideas. It has its faults, sure, but none of this is really the point. By and large, it is a critical success.
Rather, it’s a question of whether spending $7 billion to build Epic Universe–plus probably another $2 billion to quickly expand its capacity in the next several years–was a smart business decision? Will the park be a commercial success? I’m sure Universal did all sorts of viability studies and has internal projections pre-2019 showing Epic Universe will generate boatloads of cash, increased occupancy and attendance, and so forth. But the thing about all of that is it’s theoretical and subject to change.
In actuality, the jury is still out on whether Epic Universe was the right play or whether Universal would’ve been better off building out Islands of Adventure and Universal Studios Florida. It’s easy to point to the triple-digit wait times and claim Epic Universe is a huge hit, but as covered in Epic Universe 2025 Crowd Calendar Predictions: High Crowds Despite Low Attendance, this is mostly a byproduct of capacity constraints.
Not only that, but just because a third gate (arguably) was the right move for Universal doesn’t mean the same would be true with a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. The former is trying to transform itself into a bona fide vacation destination that captures coveted hotel stays. The latter is the mature complex that already accomplishes that!
For the Walt Disney Company, there’s also the opportunity cost of building another theme park in Central Florida. If they’re going to build another gate, is that really the optimal location, or should that money be invested elsewhere?
One of the reasons some fans are holding out hope that a 5th gate is for real is because Disney surprised the world with the Disneyland Abu Dhabi announcement. The difference there is massive, though–Disney is spending $0 to build that new park in the United Arab Emirates. That park is a cash-positive licensing deal that helps fund investments at the other parks!
As long as we’re talking about a new theme park in the Middle East, we should consider other emerging growth opportunities where Disney could spend its own money to build new parks. Locations that come to mind include India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brazil and maybe even Beijing. I would bet on new Disneylands in any of those places before a 5th gate at Walt Disney World. I would also bet on random places with a lot of money that give Disney sweetheart deals for reputational reasons, a la Abu Dhabi Disneyland.
Frankly, I’d also bet on a second gate at Shanghai Disneyland or third gate at Disneyland Paris happening before a 5th gate at Walt Disney World. Heck, for that matter, a 3rd gate at Disneyland Resort is significantly more likely, and I’d put the odds of even that happening at under 50/50 in my lifetime!
The point is that new parks in new markets make infinitely more sense than the company putting too many eggs in the Central Florida basket. Beyond that, the calculus also favors additional gates in existing markets to turn those into bona fide destination resorts–similar to the reasoning for Universal building Epic Universe.
In fact, if Disney is going to be “inspired” by anything that Universal is doing, it’s more likely to be the regional kids park in Texas or the year-round Halloween Horror Nights thing in Las Vegas. Although Disney was burned by the regional concepts before and I’m skeptical they can build anything cost-effectively enough for viability, that is still more likely than a 5th gate at Walt Disney World. Who knows–maybe if the Texas or Las Vegas concepts are smash successes (doubtful), Disney will take a hard look at replicating those results. Regardless, the look will be harder than the one at building a fifth theme park!
I’m not trying to be a party pooper or the bearer of bad news with all of this, but frankly, it is NOT bad news that Walt Disney World won’t get a fifth gate! Walt Disney World shouldn’t be thinking about another brand-new theme park anytime soon. There’s plenty of room to improve, expand, fix, etc. the existing gates.
Fans love the idea of a 5th theme park because it’s a blank slate, capable of holding a long wish list of rides and lands. Instead of getting 1-2 rides here or there, we get a half-dozen new lands. A brand new theme park is sexy and exciting because of the endless theoretical opportunities it presents. It’s fun to daydream about Florida DisneySea or whatever might be in your perfect park.
There are few feelings like stepping foot in a brand-new park for the first time–expansions absolutely do not hold a candle to that. I was reminded of this again with my first visit to Epic Universe. But I’m also a realist. It’s fun to dream, but the practical reality of a new theme park would not be perfect (just as Epic Universe presently isn’t perfect). At best, it would open incomplete.
If this fictional fifth gate at Walt Disney World were on par with Walt Disney Studios Park (Paris), Disney’s California Adventure, or Hong Kong Disneyland when any of those opened, the experience would be utterly underwhelming. Building Shanghai Disneyland…as it exists today…in Florida, USA…in the 2040s would cost at least $15 billion once all is said and done. Maybe more. Want Tokyo DisneySea? There’s no point in even talking about that. Not even OLC would build another Tokyo DisneySea in today’s world. There is absolutely no reason to believe Disney would.
As exciting as a fifth gate would be, it’s difficult to advocate for that when Animal Kingdom is still a half-day park and in need of close to a half-dozen more rides. When Disney’s Hollywood Studios needs more all-ages attractions so that its headliners don’t average 60+ minute waits and a large-scale replacement for the dead mall that is Animation Courtyard. When EPCOT, even post-overhaul, needs another new World Showcase pavilion, 3-4 rides, and reimaginings to a few rides at the front of the park.
Outside of the Dinoland plot, there’s a ton of unused or underutilized space in Animal Kingdom. That park already has great bones–now how about a couple of all-new (not replacement) lands–that turns it into a full day-plus park? There’s endless potential at EPCOT.
Backstage facilities could be relocated at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, allowing for the smallest park to become larger layout. Imagineering is plenty capable of dreaming up tens of billions of dollars of fantastic ideas for the existing 4 parks at Walt Disney World beyond everything that’s already been announced.
And those are just the things that really should be done at the existing parks. That list did not include expansion at Magic Kingdom, which “needs” the least help. There are a ton of discretionary projects that could happen at the existing gates to really improve them, and Villains Land is one of those.
Oh, and once Villains Land is done, its laydown yards will flip a lot of the land to the northwest of Magic Kingdom from “marginally unsuitable” to “marginally suitable” (see above). That land that could become future park expansion to build out Magic Kingdom even further. Or, more likely, an in-park hotel–that could account for a couple thousand of the “keys” approved in the 2045 Plan.
When you add the aforementioned infrastructure to the mix, the costs of constructing a new theme park would eat away multiple billions of dollars that could be spent on substantive additions instead. A lot of fans are upset about Walt Disney World’s approach to expanding within the berm in the next ~5 years, but it’s an incredibly efficient use of resources that should offer considerably more bang for buck.
While some of the choices being made as part of the current plans strike me as short-sighted, I’ll still take a maximization of the investment, and have that money allocated towards expanding the existing parks and reimagining rides that are currently underutilized or outdated.
I know that’s not the exciting choice and might be an unpopular opinion. But the alternative is the current 4 gates stagnating for decades to come–and that’s assuming a new gate would be properly built-out in the first place, and wouldn’t require another decade to fix or expand. I only plan on living until I’m ~150 years old, and I’m not sure if that’s enough time for Animal Kingdom to be properly built-out into a full-day park if Disney chases this fifth gate folly.
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Your Thoughts
Do you think a fifth major theme park plus fourth & fifth minor parks are on the horizon at Walt Disney World before 2045? Would you like to see the company spend $10 to 15 billion to build a brand-new theme park, or would you prefer it spent on expanding the existing 4 parks (and keeping the lights on at both water parks)? Do you agree or disagree with our reasons as to why one is unlikely–or desirable–in the foreseeable future? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
my dream 5th gate would be called disney fantasy forest with a magic themed land with original charaters made for the park, a princess village, a disney fairies land, a toontown, a harbor themed land featuring duffy and friends and a big green park area with trees and a lake in the center and picnic tables and stuff… it will never be built but wtvr lol…
2045? Isn’t that when they’ll finally update the Monorail?
I agree, this is a permission form, nothing more, an “if you want, you can” list. As my caustic first line indicates, there is a LOT to be done withing the existing parks before adding a 5th Gate. Hey, I’d love it! our typical (with exceptions) stay is 6-9 nights, in which time we’d be able to fit in a 5th theme park. It would make our vacays less laidback, and horror of horrors, this thing called “getting old” is starting to hit. But folks who are going on stays for 3-5 nights are going to be hard-pressed.
Also, always remember the Law of Unintended Consequences! Add a 5th gate, and to pay for it, families might decide they need to stay off property to afford it, so it could cause a decrease in resort occupancy.
There’s also a better option: Redo an existing park, namely Animal Kingdom.
I like AK, and I’ve enjoyed it. But I live 20 minutes from a great zoo and a great aquarium. Kilimanjaro Safaris is fantastic, but the rest of the animal exhibits are very good to great versions of exhibits that most people are within an hour of driving distance. Now, these were all issues raised when the idea for AK was first announced, but that doesn’t mean those issues are not still valid.
We are seeing some of that transformation already, with the Americas land and when Avatar was added, but there is a HUGE amount of land in this park. A complete redoing of the park could keep some of the best zoo aspects but free up massive amounts of space for development.
I’m fine if AK stays as it is, with slow plans for new rides, refurbishments, etc., but there’s a reason Avatar was placed here: There was room for it. That same reasoning will likely appeal to management more than a 5th gate for the foreseeable future.
I completely agree with other ideas mentioned: Expanding Hollywood Studios, developing empty slots at Epcot and continuing beyond the berm at MK.
But AK needs to make the journey to become a full day park before I’d expect to see a 5th gate.
Villains Land and Carsland should be the basis of a 5th gate, but the missed opportunity is not substantially increasing the capacity of the minor parks that I call DHS and AK. These 2 parks are so neglected. They could use 2 new lands in each park. EPCOT also needs a cash infusion to add 2 or 3 major new attractions. As for a 5th Park, an actual park based on new concepts instead of tired Disney IP is needed, but save the riverboat.
Michael..YOU’RE HIRED. WOW, awesome thoughts and ideas. LOVE IT!!!!
Thanks! I’d love to do big picture parks stuff at DIS! I’m an engineer by profession, and I think theme parks are the most interesting design problem in the world. The “sciency” parts (crowd flow, stormwater management, etc) are important, but integrating the themed elements is so much more important that it adds a whole different dimension to the problem.
I’m on board with a 5th park being wishful thinking. Also agreed on the reasons why there are better alternatives.
What I’m confused about is the purpose of such a non-committal plan. I assume no complaints from Disney if it’s entirely optional. Although, realistically, fast-tracking a major new theme park to be open in 5 years or less is fairly utopian. So not sure if having this in place is really much help, if it ever became a reality. (Disney being known for lightning speed and all…)
I’m more confused about the purpose from the District side for such a “plan”. In my naive mind, a purpose might be to plan urban development and infrastructure around a major new attraction with significant impact. But if there is no commitment either way, then what’s the point of this? Even the spending / growth stipulations aren’t really actionable as vague as they are. Now that I think about it, a more immediate benefit to Disney would be the buzz of a new park, even if there is no intention behind it. Just got me curious if I’m missing part of the story.
There really is no story. This is nothing new. The district just sets maximum development that can occur over a specific timeline that they think the district can keep up with the infrastructure needs for. It is completely unrelated to any actual plans.
I agree we won’t see a 5th gate, at least not anytime soon, and that Disney definitely needs to focus on expanding/ improving existing parks. Upon skimming through the proposed 2045 comprehensive plan, there really wasn’t much of anything new or interesting. Really the only thing of potential interest was a traffic map (Figure 3-9:Existing Trip Generators and Attractors). This map included not only existing, but also potential areas for Entertainment(parks), Hotel/resorts, and Commercial. It’s odd that of all of the potential buildable areas on the property, there were only listed 1 potential area for Entertainment (adjacent to ESPN sports complex), 1 potential area for Hotel/Resorts (northwest of Grand Floridian), and 2 small areas for commercial. Makes me wonder if these areas were singled out because maybe something is already in the planning stages for these areas. Neither the 2020 or 2032 comprehensive plans included potential areas, so I’m not sure if this is a newly developed change.
I have to raise the question and it’s been preying on my mind and wasn’t sure how/where to ask it. And maybe it’s been tackled before but why haven’t they utilized any of the Marvel IP at Disney World? I mean from an outside non expert opinion expanding DHS with a Marvel land would seem like an obvious win so I feel like there is something I don’t know.
Hi Christine!
Disney World can’t fully utilize Marvel characters due to a pre-existing licensing agreement between Universal and Marvel. This agreement, signed before Disney acquired Marvel, grants Universal exclusive rights to certain Marvel characters, particularly those associated with the Avengers, X-Men, and Spider-Man, in theme parks east of the Mississippi River. This is how they can have a Marvel Campus in California and on the Disney Cruise Line , but not Disney World Florida. So, no Marvel in Disney World, unless Disney World also buy’s Universal’s initial rights to make their ownership all encompassing.
Marvel struck a licensing deal with Universal to the theme park rights for the use of their characters in Orlando parks, prior to Disney purchasing the film rights to Marvel.
Marvel gave Universal the exclusive right to use its characters in theme parks east of the Mississippi back in the 90s. When Disney acquired Marvel in 2009, the agreement was (and still is) in force. Apparently, Guardians of the Galaxy wasn’t included in the original agreement between Universal and Marvel, so Disney was able to use those characters in its Orlando parks.
Agreed. Fix DAK and EPCOT first, then DHS. Please, for everyone’s sanity Disney, add an additional entrance/exit to MK! Not everyone needs to enter the park down Main Street everytime! I’d rather enter the side or back and not get bumped into, knocked down, or coughed on every time I go to MK! Eventually you will have a serious injury or worse in a stampede down Main Street.
I love this idea. I’d especially enjoy it if it minimizes the amount of walking I have to do before I even enter the park. x-x
A whopping big analysis. The Orlando tourism and convention economies are somewhat competitive with Las Vegas. The airports of both cities seem to be similar in numbers of flights, both with loads of non-stops. Both will even have Brightline trains. So maybe Orlando needs a huge spherical thing like Las Vegas?? The expanded Dr. Phillips concert hall complex is only a minor tourist attraction, but it and other city features do plump out what’s on offer in the tourist zone.
At the moment, the US is the wealthiest it’s ever been, even though the 21st century has been bumpy, so it’s prudent for Disney’s planning for local governments to allow for large increases in capacity.
Even if Elio’s a flop, Disney keeps producing starters for theme park features. That much looks good.
I wonder whether one or both Disney water parks might be due for revision or replacement. I’m sure Disney doesn’t want a park with waves for surfing, but I bet a redesigned Typhoon Lagoon pool might conserve energy, be easier to maintain, and be lots of fun.
All of this leads to one obvious conclusion: Disney revives the abandoned “Night Kingdom” niche park concept from 2008, and puts a giant Sphere on the top.
I guess it really is not news then. By 2045, Universal will own the Orlando landscape. lol
Not only do I agree with you that they aren’t building a 5th park anytime soon, but I also agree with the sentiment of not really wanting them too. There is room to add to all of the other parks, yet they rarely build something without closing it. Plus every new land they build basically has two attractions. Do people really think if they built a new park that it would be fully fleshed out? My guess is the majority of fans would be disappointed by what was ultimately built and deride it as another half day park. The focus should be on actually expanding the parks instead of replacing things. 4 parks at one resort is already a lot. Would people really lengthen their vacations for a meaningful amount of time for an extra park? My guess is people would just skip AK. I love that park but I know I’m in the minority.
I love AK. When AK had evening hours, it was my favorite park. My current problem with AK is that it’s too hot there in the summer, and the park closes too early. We are long past the days of doing rope drop to close in the parks, so we prefer to get to the parks in the mid to late afternoon and stay until close. We love the parks in the evenings. This makes AK a no go for us now.
I agree with you that Disney will never build a fifth gate at Disney World. Disney World is primarily a hotel business; the parks are there to get people to book the hotel rooms. With all the competition from non-Disney hotels and theme parks in the Orlando area, I do not foresee that Disney would see the growth it would need in its hotel business to justify the cost of an additional park. It’s more cost effective for Disney to entice new or repeat visitors to stay on Disney grounds by adding a couple of new rides or changing out older and dated attractions than to build a whole new park. I actually believe that Disney will only build brand new major theme parks in the future if they are funded by third parties (as is the case with Abu Dhabi).
Great analysis as always!
I think it is more realistic that a 3rd gate is built in Disneyland to make it a 4-5 day destination, however I’m not sure if the ~75 acers in Toy Story lot is enough (then again DCA is ~85 acers). I have no idea what an additional park’s theme would be. Disneyland and DCA both have such a variety of IP in them. I know it is an old concept, but really a Westcot with a World Showcase is something no other park on the West Coast has…
The very first thing to cross my mind was, “wait … is it April Fool’s Day today?”
20245 is probably a case of “truth in typos” 😉
I’m inclined to agree with you, Tom. *And* I also recall you being pretty convinced Disney would not be announcing another park less than a week before we got the Abu Dhabi announcement 😉
This new plan is basically saying, “You have approval to build a new theme park starting in 10 years, if you want to.” That’s far enough out that I don’t think any of us can adequately predict what the economic environment will be, or how company leadership will think about things (we don’t even know who will be in charge!). I certainly will not be holding my breath waiting for an announcement. But I also won’t be 100% surprised if we do get one in 10 years.
You are correct! For what it’s worth, I had rumors of both Disneyland Abu Dhabi and Monstropolis prior to those announcements, and rather than running with them, decided to write articles about why they would NOT happen. In fairness, my longer-term track record with predictions and dismissals is much stronger, but those are two recent black eyes that still sting.
Going forward, I will offer a blanket prediction that anywhere that offers Disney a sweetheart licensing deal for a reputation or prestige project will get one. Well, perhaps not Disneyland Tehran or Pyongyang…but just about anywhere else! That’s what I got wrong with Disney in the Middle East–I figured it would not be a top priority for the company to invest in building its next Disneyland. But as it turns out, they aren’t!
You’re right about so much we have to keep you humble somehow lol. One thing I personally appreciate about this blog is your willingness to come back and acknowledge when you got something wrong. The world and certainly the internet could use more of that!
I think the biggest problem is they continue to build resorts. Adding more and more people that I dont believe these expansions will help with at all.
By and large, new resorts do not induce demand–they just shift around where people stay.
Very few people who otherwise wouldn’t visit Walt Disney World are going to see Lakeside Lodge and say, “now I’ll plan a trip to Florida!” That’s the tail wagging the dog.
Rather, they decide to visit Walt Disney World and then determine whether to stay off-site or on-site. The majority of WDW park guests still come from off-site, but more resorts should start to tilt that in the other direction.
if they dont induce more crowds then why are the rooms always full, or is Disney not opening all their inventory?
The parks fill up the resorts, not the other way around.
One way to tell this is to note that the percentage of guests that come from off-site hotels has increased over time.
are you saying that adding 3, 4, 5 new resorts has no effect on park attendance? does that make sense in your head??
That absolutely makes sense. Adding more resorts just shifts more guests to on-site from off-site. Do you really think anybody’s thought process is they only want to go to the parks if there is a new resort?
id say if they are staying on property they are more likely to stay “on” property. off site most likely has a higher rate of visiting other FL attractions.
Totally agree with you Tom. Better to “fix” what is broke (or at least cracked) than spend years building another park.
I hope I see you when we’re both 150 years old…….;0
We’ll NEVER see a 5th gate.
Let me clarify…we’ll be dead when and if it ever happens.
Not sure it’s needed as the “theme parks” have really been diluted.
MK, theoretically you can put anything into it but…
EPCOT is not what it was dreamed up to be.
I think we can agree there’s rides in some parks that are actually better suited for other gates via theme.
The mash ups don’t bother me, but it leaves me to wonder, what would the 5th “THEME” be?
So why bother when what you really need is to expand the four you’ve got. Plus, you have the land thanks to Walts forethinking.
So DTB fans…what do you think the 5th THEME would be? I look forward to hearing your ideas.
“So DTB fans…what do you think the 5th THEME would be? I look forward to hearing your ideas.”
This is a great question, so good that it’s worthy of a standalone post!
My bet is that a lot of fans are going to offer single concepts, such as Marvel or Star Wars. But that will absolutely never happen, because that narrows the target audience way, way too much. (Hopefully that was one of the many lessons learned from Starcruiser).
I’ll go with DisneySky or DisneySea. Neither will happen, but they’re strong concepts. I also think ‘Heroes vs. Villains’ could’ve been interesting, but I’m much more satisfied with Villains Land in Magic Kingdom.
I’d want the theme to be something broad and malleable so that we don’t run into any issues when it comes time to add IPs (and IP-less theme park is even more far fetched than a 5th gate at this point). I’m so happy Tokyo DisneySea was built how it was but man did they bend over backwards to find a thematic justification for adding the Fantasy Springs properties. One thing I do think Universal got right with Epic is the concept of the portals allowing each land to be its own thing without needing to fit into an overarching theme. I don’t know what you’d call it but maybe something built around the idea of exploration? A lot of stories in the Disney catalogue are about going to new lands and discovering new things, and it would also allow room for park-original rides that take you to either parts of the real world or ones Imagineering dream up.
Disneys Shade kingdom!
The entire park is shaded in one way or another through natural or manmade canopies .
I can dream
I think it’ll need to be something generic that can stand having a bunch of different lands/IPs shoehorned in. Basically a mix of DisneySea and the Epic “Portal” conceit. My guesses for a starting park:
DisneySea Florida —> Built around a large central water feature similar to Epcot, with fingers of water extending out into different lands. This also helps with drainage/water approvals as you’re adding tons of stormwater run-off capacity and you have somewhere for fireworks.
Center spine/entrance way is themed to “Old Florida”. Spanish colonial architecture, orange trees, etc, leading to a faux port on the central lagoon with boat transport to the lands across the way.
First “port of call” is Arabian themed. Build the Sinbad ride from Tokyo, plus an Aladdin “Cave of Wonders” ride with the Shanghai Pirates ride system.
Second “port of call” is Star Wars themed, Tatooine edition. The sands allow for a smooth thematic transition between Arabia and Tatooine. There’s a pod racing ride, you can eat and drink at the Mos Eisley Cantina, and there’s an active starport where you can board a transport to another planet. And by that I mean a “Hogwarts Express” style ride that takes you to Batuu in DHS.
Third “port of call” is UK themed. Adds more dining capacity and a big English style pub. For rides/attractions I’d love to see a James Bond stunt show here, and also a Bond-themed story coaster. Then add a Cherry Tree lane segment. Put in the flat ride they previously planned for Epcot and add a dark ride where you board carousel horses that leave the carousel and go on an adventure into the chalk drawing. Mix of Minnie and Minnie’s runaway railway (go through the screen, but on a horse) with the rat-ride, where the carousel horses follow a trackless story.
Fourth port of call – build Fantasy Springs from Tokyo.
Fifth port of call – Frozen lands. Build the Hong Kong version with the sled coaster, plus a full size Frozen castle. Can’t do the dark ride as it’s already in Epcot, but could add an ice bar.
The problem with a new park is that all of this stuff fits into an existing park somewhere else. It would be cheaper to add the same capacity into the existing footprint, and would probably drive just as much new traffic. Plus you could spread out the cost by building one new land at a time, and you’d inspire multiple new visits from super fans who would come for every new land not just once for the new park.
You could easily put an Arabian land in Animal Kingdom (and I think they should). As I’ve described it, plus add a couple of animal exhibits and that’s a really strong addition to the weakest park. The UK stuff fits in Epcot, and if you took out the wedding/convention hall there would be room for it (and move that elsewhere). Same with adding to the Frozen stuff in Epcot. You could build a lot of Fantasy Springs in Magic Kingdom by replacing Autotopia for New-New Fantasyland, and it would fit great there thematically.
I actually think you could shoe-horn Tattoine into Animal Kingdom as well, especially if you added “ride an animatronic Bantha” which fits thematically in the park and the planet of Tattoine. And adding a DHS-Animal Kingdom link would help support visitation at Animal Kingdom.
Michael–interestingly, I, too, thought up the idea of a Mary Poppins ride where the horses would leave the carousel. I wasn’t sure it could work in reality when considering riders’ safety, though there was a ride in the defunct Pirates World in Dania, Florida (imported from Coney Island, I heard) where riders rode fake horses along a track rather than just round in a circle.
I’ve enjoyed armchair Imagineering, though I haven’t a clue about actual engineering or things like fiscal issues or effects on the environment, infrastructure, etc. A lot of my ideas I’ve incorporated into some stories that are a combo of original stories & fanfic, though I haven’t posted any of them yet.
I don’t actually have a strong opinion on a 5th gate happening, and this is impossible, but I wish all of the Pixar stuff could be ripped out of the current parks and moved into its own park! All of it feels very shoehorned into its current/upcoming homes, and I hate that. Even though it’s not my favorite IP, I’d actually be excited if Pixar movies got legit built-out lands with multiple attractions, restaurants, playgrounds, etc. Honestly, Toy Story probably deserves better than what it has a DHS, I’m sure Monstropolis and Piston Peak could be done better with a blank slate instead of repurposing existing land/buildings, Ratatouille could have an accompanying restaurant at the very least. Coco, Inside Out, and The Incredibles are all great movies that could be made into interesting lands!