Hurricane Watch Issued for Disney World as Milton Hits Category 5 Status & Closures Start

Hurricane Milton strengthened into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph sustained winds 175 mph sustained winds, and is forecast to continue intensifying before making landfall in Florida. Along with that, Walt Disney World is now under a Hurricane Watch, and closures throughout Central Florida have started. This offers an update on the system’s status, impacts around Orlando, airport closures, likelihood of the theme parks closing, and more.

The National Hurricane Center announced that Milton has hit the highest level of hurricane in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, strengthening to a category 5 hurricane as its “remarkable rapid intensification” is continuing. In a special update, the NHC reported that Milton “explosively intensifies with 175 mph winds.” Prior to that bulletin update, Milton was forecast to reach 165 mph sustained winds as it moves across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

The center of Hurricane Milton was located about 715 miles from Tampa and 125 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico moving east-southeast at 9 mph. The system has grown from a tropical storm with 50 mph winds on Sunday morning into a Category 5 hurricane increasing by 110 mph in intensity in approximately the last 30 hours.

Officially, it’s currently business as usual at Walt Disney World. The company has not announced any closures, cancellations, or substantive operational impacts due to Hurricane Milton. If you’re simply wondering what will be closing or changing at the resorts, water parks, restaurants, etc., the answer is nothing. So far.

Walt Disney World has launched its weather updates page with the following banner: “Walt Disney World Resort is currently operating under normal conditions. We are closely monitoring the path of the projected storm as we continue to prioritize the safety of our Guests and Cast Members.” This was last updated on Monday morning, but no material changes were made.

The bulk of Hurricane Milton’s impact on Central Florida is forecast to be felt late on Wednesday and into Thursday, so the company likely views it as premature for any announcements about Walt Disney World operations. We’d expect that to happen on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday, as it becomes increasing clear that Milton will pose an actual threat–beyond just wet weather and wind–to Walt Disney World. With that said, quiet changes are already starting to be made.

For starters, Walt Disney World has officially enacted its more lenient hurricane cancellation and modification policy. This had been informally instituted over the weekend on a case-by-case basis, but now it’s available to all guests wanting to cancel their vacations through at least October 12, 2024.

Due to potential weather impacts to guest travel plans, change and cancellation fees imposed by Disney will be waived for check-in dates through Saturday. Most room-only and vacation packages can be modified, or cancelled online, including changes to travel dates, without fees. Packages including air transportation or other services provided by third parties, or those with travel protection, cannot be modified or cancelled online. For Guests with these reservations, please call us for assistance.

It’s also likely that guests currently staying at Walt Disney World resort hotels whose travel plans are impacted by Hurricane Milton may receive a discounted rate to extend their stay, if needed, by visiting the front desk. Prior to this, Walt Disney World blocked new bookings over the weekend. Between that and cancellations, there should be wide open availability for those who need to extend or evacuate from the coast.

Similarly, Disney Park Pass theme park reservations have been blocked out for Wednesday, October 9, 2024. There’s now no availability at all four Walt Disney World theme parks–the calendar is greyed out for both Annual Passholders and regular ticket holders who are required to make reservations.

That’s it in terms of official announcements or changes from Walt Disney World. At least, for now. There absolutely will be operational changes, cancellations, and closures. That will happen, without a doubt, given Milton’s strength and tracking. Already, we’re starting to see other closures around Central Florida that are worth sharing…

Tampa International Airport has announced that it will suspend all commercial and cargo operations beginning at 9 a.m. on Tuesday, October 8, 2024 ahead of Hurricane Milton. The Tampa Airport (TPA) will remain closed to the public until it can assess any damage after the storm passes.

TPA and its partners will use the time ahead of the suspension to prepare the airfield and terminals, including the securing of jet bridges, ground equipment and any remaining aircraft before the storm arrives. The three other public airports managed by the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority – Peter O. Knight, Tampa Executive and Plant City Airports – will also close in a similar timeframe.

Although not one of the main airports for visitors to Walt Disney World, this is relevant because the lost capacity will likely mean less bandwidth at Orlando International Airport. Meaning that guests already at Walt Disney World who want to leave early, for example on midday Tuesday, will have fewer choices because people trying to get out of Tampa will drive to MCO.

As for Orlando International Airport, the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority (GOAA) has activated its Emergency Operations Center to a Level 2 and implemented pre-storm procedures in advance of Hurricane Milton. This is based on forecasts from the National Weather Service in Melbourne, and applies to both MCO and Orlando Executive (ORL) airports.

Although MCO and the GOAA haven’t stated as much, it’s all but inevitable that the airports in Central Florida will close. Probably for the entirety of Wednesday and potentially beyond. That’s what has happened regularly and repeatedly with systems that were forecast to be even less impactful on Central Florida than Hurricane Milton.

UPDATE: No sooner than we hit publish did the GOAA announce that MCO will be closing. On Wednesday morning, October 9, Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Orlando Executive Airport (ORL) will cease commercial passenger and private operations in advance of Hurricane Milton. MCO itself is NOT closed and will remain open to accept emergency/aid and relief flights as necessary. GOAA will resume commercial operations as soon as possible based on damage assessment.

Given that and the cascading effect of cancellations and rebookings from Tampa, we would strongly encourage anyone with a flight out of MCO on Wednesday to make a decision ASAP about whether to leave earlier or later. Obviously, we’re not meteorologists, but we’ve been around the block with hurricanes and tropical storms in Florida, and we’re reasonably confident that most (if not all) flights on Wednesday won’t be happening.

It is our expectation that Walt Disney World will have closures as a result of Hurricane Milton.

A relocation of guests from Fort Wilderness and the cancellation of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party on October 8 and 10, 2024 is likely. Other nighttime spectaculars may also be cancelled, Typhoon Lagoon will probably close, and various tours and other things will be cancelled.

As for the core four theme parks, if the meteorologists are correct and nothing about the tracking changes for Hurricane Milton, an early closure on Tuesday night is possible. This is not a sure thing as the storm’s arrival is now later on Wednesday, so Tuesday may be business as usual. (Nevertheless, Disney will want to give as many Cast Members as possible who aren’t part of the ride out crew a chance to go home early.)

Following that, a full-day closure for Walt Disney World’s theme parks on Wednesday seems increasingly likely. Also within the realm of possibility depending upon the extent of the storm’s impact, damage, and how quickly it passes through is a delayed opening, or even another full-day closure, on Thursday.

Please keep in mind that this is what we’re expecting based on the current forecast and past precedent. It’s not official or even rumor. Again, Walt Disney World has not issued any closures or warnings. Aside from the aforementioned wet and windy weather, the operational impact on Walt Disney World is still unknown.

As of the latest update on October 7, 2024 from the National Hurricane Center, here are the key messages for Hurricane Milton…

The center of Hurricane Milton was located about 715 miles from Tampa and 125 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico moving east-southeast at 9 mph. The system has a tight wind field with hurricane-force winds out to 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds out to 80 miles.

The NHC’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the rapid intensification of Milton is “only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records.”

Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula.

Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north once again. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models.

Milton is now a category 5 hurricane and will continue to intensify with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 hours, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast.

However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency announced President Biden had authorized it to coordinate disaster relief efforts in Florida and approved federal funding for emergency protective measures, including direct assistance to the counties that were part of the state’s original emergency declaration request (this included Orange and Osceola Counties).

Governor DeSantis delivered press conferences from the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee on Monday, during which he noted that Milton has slowed and might make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday as opposed to earlier forecasts of early Wednesday landfall.

He implored Floridians to prepare, and offered reminders and reassurances that there’s still time, as the storm isn’t arriving in the next couple of days, but mid-week. He strongly encouraged Floridians to put their hurricane preparedness plans into place and be sure people have enough water and nonperishable food to last as long as the power may be out. DeSantis also suspended tolls throughout west and Central Florida.

DeSantis also reiterated that we don’t yet know where, exactly, the eye of the storm will make landfall. “When you’re talking about 30, 40, 50 miles north or south, that will make a huge difference in terms of who gets the worst surge, how much power is ended up taken out, and so we have no way of knowing how that’s going to shake out,” he said. “So the resources are being brought in, and the power restoration effort will begin as soon as it’s safe to do so.”

He said to expect both voluntary and mandatory evacuations, especially on the barrier islands, which just saw deadly storm surge because of Hurricane Helene. “Take this storm very seriously,” DeSantis added, because it’s going to be a major and powerful hurricane that will impact Florida.

According to the social media pages of several Central Florida cities and the Florida Division of Emergency Management, sandbag distribution centers are going to start opening in the coming days to allow residents to prepare for potential Milton impacts. Florida state and local government agencies are already taking Milton very seriously.

Obviously, things could change between now and mid-week, but this system looks like it could be a scary one for the west coast of the state. In watching the local weather forecasts, we’ve seen two different meteorologists bring up the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921, which was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since 1848.

We’re not attempting to be alarmists, just sharing what we’re seeing and hearing. The tone of Central Florida weather forecasters suggests that Hurricane Milton could be a serious storm, with consequential wind, surge and flood concerns. Anyone who has experienced storm season in Florida knows these forecasts can–and usually do–change. However, Hurricane Milton is almost assuredly going to be a catastrophic storm for the Florida Peninsula, all the way into Central Florida.

We’ll keep you posted with updates from the National Hurricane Center and operational updates from Walt Disney World if/when one is released. If you’re planning a visit, you can also consult our Tips for Hurricane & Storm Season at Walt Disney World for generalized advice on packing, avoiding the worst of the wet weather, and even riding out a hurricane.

Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!

YOUR THOUGHTS

Are you concerned that Hurricane Milton will impact Walt Disney World? Are you currently in Central Florida? Have you visited during past tropical storms or hurricanes? Any additional info, thoughts, or first-hand experiences to share about riding out a hurricane at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!