Low Fourth of July Wait Times at Disney World
Wait times at Walt Disney World for Independence Day 2024 were once again low, following up last year when reports of the parks being “dead” or “ghost towns” made national news and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. This discusses the reasons for lower crowds during what used to be a popular holiday.
At least in part, this won’t come as a surprise to regular readers of this blog. Last month, we published Summer (Still) Is NOT High Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. The title pretty much says it all, so I’m not going to rehash all of that. The bottom line is that summer crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the last several years.
Summer hasn’t been peak season for a while–since 2016. There were a couple of years that were anomalies during the pent-up demand period, which is probably a big reason why some fans are being caught off-guard by the summer slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. Because it hasn’t been the case that summer has consistently been slow during the last 7 years.
You also might recall that Independence Day 2023 was downright dead at Walt Disney World. It was such a hot topic that it drew an explanation from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as a whole and unseasonably bad weather. He wasn’t wrong…but he also wasn’t completely correct.
Aside from Independence Day, summer crowd levels were lower across the board last year. Certainly not on par with the off-season that followed, but not what you’d expect if you last experienced summer at Walt Disney World before 2016. It was downright delightful! Well…so long as you could endure the wicked weather. Minor asterisk.
The same thing has been true once again this summer, including Independence Day 2024. Per Thrill-Data, Walt Disney World as a whole had a crowd level of 1/10 with an average wait time of 26 minutes on July 4, 2024. For reference, that’s down as compared to the last two weeks of June, which had average wait times of 35 minutes (second to last week) and 31 minutes (last week).
However, it’s up as compared to last Independence Day, when the average wait time was only 22 minutes–that was on par with some of the slowest days in the August and September off-season!
Not all parks were equally uncrowded on July 4, 2024. Magic Kingdom outperformed slightly; EPCOT did so massively, with an 8/10 crowd level. These two parks being busiest is particularly unsurprising since they’re the only two with special Fourth of July fireworks shows and there’s currently a ticket deal that prevents Park Hopping.
It’s also worth pointing out that crowd levels measure are statistical–meaning they measure wait times, not congestion. Usually, wait times are a good proxy for crowds, but not always. Magic Kingdom and EPCOT fireworks viewing areas on Independence Day are a prime example of this exception–and were undoubtedly very busy.
Then there’s Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, which were slow by any subjective or objective measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest average wait time–23 minutes–since May 15. Hollywood Studios had an average wait time of 25 minutes, which is extremely low for DHS (keep in mind that it has a ‘top-heavy’ ride roster of attractions that post high wait times and stage shows that don’t post wait times). July 4 was tied for the slowest day at DHS since last year’s late summer/early fall off-season.
For reference, it also started as a slow summer at Universal Orlando, but they’ve since turned things around. That increase more or less coincides with the launch of CineSational in mid-June; that might be correlation, though, as Walt Disney World also saw a bounce around the same time. In any case, Universal Orlando has been noticeably busier this week, with 4/10 crowd levels on July 4, 2024. (It’s worth noting that the Universal Mega Movie Parade just debuted, and looks amazing.)
With wait times data out of the way, let’s talk possible theories as to why the Independence Day holiday weekend hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…
Economy – I’m going to start with two controversial ones, which will inevitably come up in the comments–so might as well address them in the body of the article. No one can agree on the state of the U.S. economy–not even economists. This is a blog about Disney, so even though I’ve recently watched The Big Short and Margin Call (thus making me an expert on this sort of thing), perhaps it’s beyond our scope.
What I will say is that not every American is experiencing the same economy and there are conflicting statistics that have befuddled economists when it comes to robust consumer spending–that they’ve just sort of hand waved away as “YOLO spending.” (Honestly, that probably makes sense–people got used to doing certain things and spending certain ways during the pent-up demand period, leading to lifestyle creep. Others reevaluated their priorities during the pandemic.)
But none of that really matters here, as there’s key data that tells a fairly conclusive story. The TSA forecast a record-setting Fourth of July 2024 holiday travel timeframe. TSA projected to screen more than 32 million travelers between Friday, June 28, and Monday, July 8, 2024. That’s a 5.4% year-over-year increase in travel for the holiday. This is after TSA has already set record after record for screenings in 2024, beating last year and even pre-pandemic numbers of 2019.
For its part, AAA projects 70.9 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday travel period. (Relevant because AAA numbers cover flying and driving.) AAA analyzed the entire Fourth of July week, plus the Saturday before and the Sunday after the holiday. This year’s projected number of travelers for that time period is a 5% increase compared to 2023 and an 8% increase over 2019.
AAA booking data shows domestic airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week compared to last year, and the average price for a domestic roundtrip ticket is $800. (This is actually well below-trend for summer as a whole; domestic airfare is down approximately 5% to 9.5% year-over-year.)
According to AAA, gas prices are lower than last year when the national average was $3.53. AAA also indicates that Orlando, Florida is one of the top travel destinations this Independence Day holiday weekend. (Also making the list were Seattle and Anchorage–not cities I’d normally associate with the Fourth of July.)
The Greater Orlando Aviation Authority expects Orlando International Airport (MCO) to have about 700,000 departing passengers over the nine-day period from June 29 to July 7. There will be more than 85,000 departures on Saturday, July 6, which is expected to be the highest volume day.
The bottom line is that whatever issues might exist with the U.S. economy, the American consumer is still spending freely and going places for Independence Day. It’s certainly not impacting travel as a whole, although it could affect what consumers are doing once arriving at their destinations.
Politics – Whenever the topic of lower crowds at Walt Disney World comes up, there are some commentators who rush to attribute this to politics. These same voices were strangely silent between Christmas and New Year’s Eve when Walt Disney World saw record high wait times. (Same goes for any other holiday week or time when the parks have been busy.)
I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero impact on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt for a second that some families have cancelled trips as a result. We’ve heard from many who have! But conversely, I also suspect others have been enticed to visit as a result of Disney’s perceived politics. (Bigger picture, I think both of these statements apply to the state of Florida as a whole, which is similarly polarizing.)
What I do think is that this is all occurring at the margins. That the average guest doesn’t much care or won’t alter their vacation plans due to politics. That there’s a lot of bluster, but it’s coming from a vocal minority and maybe even that group’s own behavior doesn’t match their words. There are easily a half-dozen better explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, especially since attendance trends have had ups and downs in the last couple of years.
Regardless, it’s difficult to conceive of politics as an explanation for a slower Independence Day at Walt Disney World. Whatever impact politics is or isn’t having, it’s across the board. We’re looking for theories as to why this holiday weekend, specifically, has seen a slowdown. It’s not like those upset with Disney’s politics are boycotting on the Fourth of July (the most patriotic day of the year at Walt Disney World!), and instead opting for September 17. That’s not how this works.
Pricing –Â Across the board, summer at Walt Disney World is more expensive than about a decade ago for both tickets and hotel rooms. This explains why cost-sensitive consumers with flexibility have shifted their travel dates to other times of year than summer. (It would also, at least in part, explain the rising popularity of January and February.)
Recognizing the reality that summer prices have discouraged visitors, Walt Disney World has sought to remedy this with ticket deals (the Florida Resident Discover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for the general public). They’ve also introduced a bevy of big discounts, including a reprise of the popular Free Dining offer.
These deals have helped and definitely moved the needle for 2024 (meaning numbers would be even worse but for those promos!), but there’s a big asterisk to this. These promos have also attracted more cost-sensitive consumers…and you know what that demo will do? Comparison shop.Â
The Independence Day holiday weekend is part of the “Summer Holiday” room rate season, which is considerably more expensive per night than just the regular ole “Summer” season before and after. The latter isn’t cheap in the first place–for planners who can just hold out until the second week in August, prices fall off a cliff.
It’s not just pricier on-site hotels or tickets (if guests don’t buy the aforementioned discounted ones). Almost every aspect of traveling over the holiday weekend is more expensive, since travel prices are largely demand-driven. As compared to the rest of the summer season, this means higher average airfare, rental cars, off-site hotels, and more.
Weather – We’ve covered weather a lot lately, so I don’t want to belabor this point. Especially since it explains summer trends, more broadly, and not just one weekend. (And again, along with pricing, weather paints a picture of why January and February are getting busier and June and July are slowing.)
In a nutshell, Floridians stay home when the forecast turns unseasonably hot, humid or rainy. July 4, 2024 saw sweltering weather once again–with another heat wave in Central Florida. Highs have been in the mid-90s with heat indices around 105° to 112° and Heat Advisories in place. This is undoubtedly enough to get some locals to change their Fourth of July plans.
Tourists cannot quickly pivot and those already booked won’t cancel–but they’ll likely spend less time in the parks per day. So while they could be shifting trips away from the summer months due to more reports of oppressive weather, it’s not like those who do book Fourth of July trips are staying away from the parks. At least, not disproportionately versus other summer days.
As much as I hate high heat and humidity, I think it’s overblown as a factor in lower Fourth of July crowds. Summer as a whole, sure. But it’s not the main reason why Walt Disney World has seen a disproportionate slow down over the Independence Day weekend the last couple years, even if it’s the excuse Bob Iger used last year.
Annual Passes – Saving what I think is the best theory for last is Annual Passes. This is a multifaceted one. First, both the Pixie Pass and the Pirate Pass–two affordable admission options for locals–are blocked out the bulk of Independence Day weekend (July 3 to July 6/7). That’s even more Floridians than normal who thus wouldn’t be in the parks over the long weekend, which should result in an exaggerated version of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been talking about for over a year.
We’ve long suspected that there’s a disproportionate number of Pixie Dust Annual Passes in circulation, in large part because it was the only AP tier that was sold for over a year. Although that hasn’t been the case for a while, inertia has probably kept the discrepancy going. Floridians got used to paying a lower price, found it worked out just fine for them, and didn’t upgrade when it came time to renew. And at a little over half the cost of the Pirate Pass, the price is certainly right–especially for cost-conscious locals.
Walt Disney World doesn’t release statistical breakdowns of its AP population, so this is only theory. However, it’s also corroborated by crowds. Whenever these passes (especially Pixie Dust) are blocked out beyond their normal weekends, it shows up in wait times data. Remember back to early-on in this Spring Break season, when the parks were packed before what should’ve been the peak–and then were dead the following weeks during Orange County’s recess?
That was not-so-coincidentally before and after a lengthy Pixie Dust Pass blockout. There are countless other examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney fix” before a blockout and then lower crowds during it. It also happens every year in January when the blockouts lift, and occurred last year for Independence Day and Labor Day. This explanation is well-supported by two years of data.
My second theory here is less supported by data. It’s that fewer Floridian families and friend groups all have the higher tiers of Annual Passes (or APs at all), and are thus opting for holiday gatherings and activities that everyone can do to avoid exclusion. Anecdotally, this is something we’ve felt firsthand (and have heard from plenty of others).
Whereas it used to be the case that entire friend groups had higher tier Annual Passes at Walt Disney World or Disneyland and made the parks their default hangout spot, that’s now not the case. Anecdotally, I’d also add that this is interconnected with weather.
Independence Day gatherings are often all-day affairs (whether at the parks or elsewhere) for locals, with the high heat and humidity making that less desirable–especially when you can drop in for an evening and catch fireworks any ole night later in July. All of this combined makes backyard barbecues, beach days, etc., more appealing to Floridians (and Californians) than the parks.
Ultimately, my strong suspicion is that the last factor–Annual Passes–is the outcome determinative one. That if you took the actual tourist attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the average Annual Passholder attendance for this summer, the number would come out looking fairly close to normal Summer 2024 days at Walt Disney World. Maybe even higher than normal.
But again, “normal” by Summer 2024 standards is still a shadow of what things were like before 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for at least a couple of years. It was not a peak season holiday like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Eve, etc., but it also wasn’t moderate–like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
In my view, that’s where the other explanations come into play. Pricing is certainly the big one. Given that Walt Disney World has already priced out a lot of tourists throughout the summer, it certainly doesn’t help that the Independence Day weekend has even higher holiday weekend pricing. Cost-conscious consumers and anyone else comparison shopping is probably considering other weeks as a result (especially if they erroneously fear that the Fourth of July weekend will have higher crowds).
It’ll be interesting to see whether there’s a bounce-back in crowds after the holiday weekend concludes. Late June ended up seeing a slight spike, which is becoming typical of summer season. Usually, there’s a second spike at the end of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘last hurrah’ summer travelers taking trips before school goes back into session. After this weekend’s blockouts conclude, I could see a gradual increase in crowd levels through the end of July 2024. It’s safe to say those numbers, whatever they are, will drop in early August.
The big wildcard this year is Free Dining (which wasn’t offered last year), which just started at the beginning of the month. My gut says that’ll have a more pronounced impact on ADRs than crowd levels, as the promotion hasn’t moved the needle that much on attendance in the past (most guests come from off-site and only a small subset of on-site guests book Free Dining). Regardless, I’d expect wait times to increase starting July 8, 2024. It’s very difficult to say by how much. This isn’t exactly a bold prediction given how low they currently are…pretty much only one way they can go!
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Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why Independence Day holiday weekend crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busy–or busier–than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
Great article. I get my live wait times from pixieping.co
I think it’s not a single thing but a combination of multiple factors.
My wife and I are Disney’s perfect customer. We’ve been close to 100 times as a couple (together 20+ years, got engaged there, wedding was at the Wedding Pavilion at the Grand, honeymooned there, baby mooned there, you get the idea), we’re former APs, both of our kids have grown up going to Disney. We’ve stayed at almost every hotel on property. Our favorite hotel is the Wilderness Lodge, where we usually stay Concierge. But Disney is pricing us out. Yes, us.
Also, with Universal opening a new park next summer, I have a feeling some people are putting off vacations until then. We’re not going again until next summer (to celebrate a birthday milestone for me) and during that trip, we’ll take a ride over to the new Universal park. We’ll be staying at the WL concierge again, but we get 1/2 off our stay (my wife is in the travel business.) I don’t know how people afford to pay rack rate. Even with the “discounts” it’s still exorbitantly expensive to go. We tried to recently justify a quick trip down to ride Tiana’s, but couldn’t justify the $1300 is was going to cost us for 2 days of park tickets. Not too long ago, that was the cost of almost 2 APs. No. Not going to do it.
The quality has fallen off at Disney in recent years, like other posters have said. Rides are down more often these days (that’s what happens when all the people with experience retire), Disney is making you pay for everything (hello Genie+) and the experience isn’t as magical as it once was. Universal has been taking notes and is making a big push towards a more experiential world. And it’s starting to pay off.
One thing a lot of people may not think about, Disney has made a push in recent years to have events at the resort year-round. Look at all the cheer/gymnastics/athletic competitions that are held at Wide World of Sports throughout the year, especially during the fall/winter and early spring. A lot of people are opting to do trips during that time, instead of when it’s 1,000 degrees in the summer. I’m a Florida native, so heat and humidity are nothing new for me, but for a lot of people it can be bothersome. Let’s face it, most of us would rather NOT wait in a 60-90 minute line when it’s 94 degrees with a dew point in the upper 70s. That’s a feels-like temp of 110 degrees in the shade. Late July and all of August are just miserable in Florida, and who wants to be miserable on vacation?
The next few years are going to be quite interesting for Disney. The parks carry the company right now, but if less revenue starts coming into the park, watch out. Disney is already looking to spinoff or sell most of its broadcast interests (ABC network, ESPN.) I think the warning signs are already there. Disney has recently sent out a slew of discounts for people who live in Florida in an attempt to get them to come to the parks. But I think people have had enough. The prices are going to have to come or people won’t come back.
Disney’s had it great for decades. But as any investor will tell you, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Iger better get to it. Otherwise people are going to realize there’s a whole big world to explore (and spend money at) outside of Disney World.
TLDR: Lots of factors leading to reduced crowds at Disney. Price increases+ falling quality + reduction in magic + year-round events.
Good analysis, Tom. But why has July 4 attendance been below July 3, 5, and 6? When I worked as a ticket-seller at Disneyland in the late-’90s, July 4 was the single busiest day of the summer, so this mystifies me.
Also, it’s funny that you said it’s not like someone would boycott WDW on July 4 and instead come on Septembet 17…as that’s Constitution Day. Indeed, it’s not likely that someone would choose to visit on the day that the Constitution was voted upon at Independence Hall, rather than visiting the day that the Declaration was voted upon in that same building!
This year’s Paris Olympics will be more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous Paris Olympics (according to the British Association for Sustainable Sport).
Florida’s much hotter than it used to be, and it’s only going to get worse. It’s not a fun “vacation” if it feels like you’re sticking your head in an oven. People (especially the wealthy) are making better more northern choices this time of year.
we were at the magic kingdom on july 3rd and the rides by 9:30 were 50 minutes long for the jungle cruise, it said 40 minutes for pirates but was only about 20, the line for haunted mansion was very long and a lot of Lightening lane people, peter pan is always a long wait, its a small world had a line into the walkway when we went by, people mover not busy at all and the railroad was only a couple minute wait when we got there and half the train was empty b4 they let us on , Between 2 and 3 it really started to get busy and we can see fireworks all around us, we decided to leave……..i honestly think some shorter lines were due to people having to stand out in the hot sun to wait…..
I agree with everything you said. As a local annual passholder to all of the parks, blackout dates seriously affect which parks my family and I will visit on our off days and holiday breaks. For instance, we would have gladly gone to WDW for the 4th of July (they have a much better fireworks and holiday events). Instead, we went to Universal. (We’re Floridians. We’re used to the high heat and humidity.) I understand why we are blocked out on certain days. Even if Disney made APs reserve the day and removed the 2pm window, passholders can jump from park to park and eschew the numbers quickly during special events. That said, it’s painful to see when a certain park is under 10% capacity and we aren’t there to enjoy it.
I appreciate your thoughtful, point-by-point approach. As someone who worked with probability and statistics in my career (estimating tv ratings) I enjoy reading a logical analysis to a question like this.
I thought weather might be a bigger factor, so I did some rudimentary research. This data is from weather underground. I checked temps going back to 2010. Last year with a high of 96 was the hottest in my data set. 2010’s high peaked at 84 but 2018 saw a high of 85. 91.7 is the historical average for the 4th of July. 98 is the all-time high with 65 the low. So, weather seems a non-factor. Even precipitation was little to none.
My family tries to schedule during cooler times. Weather does impact our planning. But it is not like the temps for July have drastically changed or trended significantly higher, giving credence to the AP blackout hypothesis.
I like the ticket blockouts and holiday pricing explanations the best because they directly affect July 4 in a way that doesn’t really affect Universal Orlando. (While the Seasonal Pass blocked out this week, it’s not that much more expensive to go up to the Power Pass that doesn’t. Also, Universal may have had higher report prices at their resorts but they were increased from a lower base rate than Disney resorts.)
One thing that’s less mentioned is the fact that Independence Day is a holiday surrounded by summer vacation, as opposed to a holiday surrounded by school days. Even a family that has to travel to Disney in the summer can make the choice to go before or after the Summer Holiday. I’ll let the economists argue about whether that’s describing a more “elastic demand.”
I’ve made that point about summer crowds in other posts–that it’s a multi-month break instead of a single week, thereby diluting demand over a longer timeframe.
But you’re right, this also applies to pricing. It’s not really possible to ‘comparison shop’ by date when it comes to spring break or most other school recesses. Your vacation dates are whatever the school break is.
By contrast, that is possible with summer travel. So when you have higher prices and the misconception that crowds will be worse, that creates more of an incentive to avoid Independence Day. Especially if you don’t want to spend even more on Lightning Lanes or After Hours or whatever.
I so enjoy your essays. Thank you! We are going next week and our kids are flying in to join us. But my husband and I plan on staying put at the fabulous Wilderness Lodge, only venturing afield to go to other resorts for meals. The parks have priced us out. I can’t bear to pay twice to get on a ride (Via Genie or whatever it’s now called) so we enjoy our DVC membership and hang out at the resorts. I look upon our annual pass years as “The good old days” — APs used to be such a deal. I think you are correct in that the REGULAR days are so overpriced now that it’s hard for “the average family” to swing the extra holiday charges. Gas is high; hotels getting TO Mickey are double what they used to be. I just can’t justify the park costs when the parks close so darn early and it’s ungodly hot til the sun sets. If anyone needs me I will be sitting at the quiet pool at the Lodge, reading a great book 🙂
This is a shame. I feel bad for Floridian APs who maintain the bottom line for the parks and the hours are not conducive to actually going. It’s too hot and humid in the day. It’s miserable pretty much across the country now I wonder if Walt could have predicted this. Disney needs to build like the Canadians with mostly indoor spaces to alleviate the climate.
Don’t forget your Canadian friends who like to come down to celebrate both Canada Day (July 1) and Independence Day. Canadian schools juts got out on June 28th and many families were booked for Disney/Florida vacations when one of Canada’s major airlines went on strike on July 29 with little notice to customers. Over 500,000 customers were affected. Westjet did not offer rerouting until it was too late. Families like mine were able to cross the border and catch a flight with a US carrier on our own dime. Having said that, we are here and find it strange being not busy. our last Disney Vacation was xmas 2018. previous to that we were summer visitors due to our jobs. We have been on previous July 4 holidays and have never seen it like this. For us, pricing has gotten to an all time BS level. The new magic bands are rubbish. The overall value and magic is lost. We are DVC members and traveled the world extensively prior to children. we bought DVC because we liked Disney vacationing. It has all gone to complete ass since the pandemic. I love Tom amd his commentary but realize Disney bloggers need to stay relevant. The way Disney is going, I cannot see us staying around much longer. our salaries have not kept up with Disney gouging. There is hope, however. We have seen setbacks before, whether it be parks or DVC itself and there always seems to be a correction. We will wait a while longer but not too long!
“Canadian schools juts got out on June 28th and many families were booked for Disney/Florida vacations when one of Canada’s major airlines went on strike on July 29 with little notice to customers. Over 500,000 customers were affected. Westjet did not offer rerouting until it was too late.”
This is an excellent point and one I hadn’t taken into account. I saw the headlines, but didn’t really dig any deeper beyond that.
Hope you’re able to have an enjoyable trip despite everything mentioned–I know it’s been a while for you!
I also hope that Walt Disney World has reached an inflection point, and we start to see more positive changes starting around October 1. As I’ve said on multiple occasions, the upcoming D23 Expo is make or break, in my opinion. I probably have different expectations than a lot of WDW fans, but regardless, the stakes are incredibly high.
I’m sure it has all to do with the ” Build back better plan ” unfortunately the average attendees just cannot afford it right now with the absorbant utilities, groceries and taxes and the economy.
No doubt that the average American feels squeezed in a number of ways. But also, the parks and resorts were packed last Christmas and New Year’s Eve–literally the most expensive time of year to visit (and by a wide margin). So while I think WDW is having issues with cost-conscious consumers, people are still traveling in huge numbers–and filling up WDW during the single most expensive time of the year.
Tom, any chance it’s due to specials such as bounce back dates not including the 4th? We just got back from a trip and the bounce back dates for 2025 don’t include 7/3-7/6.
This is actually a great theory!
I looked back and there were not blockouts for Independence Day on this year’s bounceback deal. However, that doesn’t mean that they didn’t restrict inventory for this or other special offers.
Special offer room inventory is not the same as regular room inventory, so it’s entirely possible that planners could’ve been unsuccessful booking discounted rooms for July 3-7, causing them to book other dates instead.
In previous years, I think the Flower and Garden festival extended into July and the Food and Wine started almost immediately after the Flower and Garden ended. While I doubt that draws a huge crowd, going during an event vs. a non-event might sway a few people. I am curious to see if the lower attendance trend continues during non-holiday peak times, and if the offsite-hotels are more popular than on-site in the coming months. However, I still believe that travelers are not willing to spend higher prices for less value than what was offered a few years ago for repeat guests. We always stayed at Moderate or Deluxe for at least 6 nights with Park Hopper and can no longer justify that cost.
I agree with you in theory–that a lack of special events at EPCOT results in lower attendance for June and July as a whole–but I don’t think that really explains Independence Day crowds. After all, EPCOT outperformed every other park–including both of the Universal parks!
I think the changes in schooling since Covid has made a big impact! It’s easier now to take kids out of school at better priced times AND cooler times (along with holidays). They also talk about the rise in temps (increase in hurricanes) over the past 20+ years…people are feeling it and avoiding Florida in the summer.
‘Back in the day’ Florida WAS the summer place…it just feels like it’s changed with families. Will Disney adjust its rate, that’s the BIG question!
“I think the changes in schooling since Covid has made a big impact! It’s easier now to take kids out of school at better priced times AND cooler times (along with holidays).”
Definitely agree with this, especially with regard to summer as a whole and Walt Disney World in particular. Or even Universal, for that matter, as summer has also been slower there.
But it doesn’t seem like there’s any slowdown to Florida, more broadly. MCO hasn’t yet put out official stats for this holiday weekend (since it’s not over), but it’s been a strong summer there–and I fully expect their Independence Day (June 28 to July 7) numbers to be strong. This is what’s really tripping me up, even when it comes to summer as a whole. People are still coming to Orlando in huge numbers…so what’s up with the theme parks?!
All of the reasons you stated have influenced, to some degree, this older empty-nester couple to look for places other than WDW, DCL and ABD to spend our vacation dollars. We have not been to WDW since October, 2022 and will not return unless the service and food options return to pre-pandemic levels. The biggest reason we have not returned is because F&W has not returned to pre-pandemic levels of offerings, luncheons, f&w pairings, seminars, etc. It has been nothing but food kiosks, which are really good, but not enticing enough to make a trip. We have sold half of our DVC points for lack of use. We took 2 DCL trips and one ABD trip last year and the service was on par with pre-pandemic levels but the entertainment onboard and the food have not returned. We have moved our vacation dollars to other cruise lines and have been very pleased. We cannot compare to pre-pandemic levels how these other lines are now but we do know that, for our tastes, the food is MUCH better than DCL and the service is equal or better. Just my two cents and it probably won’t apply to anyone else but Disney needs to up their game and not charge two arms & a leg or they will never return to the perceived utopia we once believed they were.
I enjoyed the entire post, as usual, thanks as always. What really grabbed me was your reference to recently re-watching Big Short and Margin Call, as I have done same. Apart from the effective PhD in Economics (x2) that gives us both, what struck me was I previously thought Big Short the better movie, but on reflection I now believe Margin Call is markedly better… and that’s saying something, since I think Big Short is exceptional!
Your thoughts, Dr. Bricker (Econ)?
What prompted me to rewatch both in the first place was a tweet from someone I respect who works in the industry stating (paraphrasing) that Margin Call actually offers the realistic insider’s look that Big Short got so much praise for. Replies to that from others in ‘FinTwit’ seemed to share that as the consensus view.
I have zero Wall Street experience (beyond watching a ton of movies and documentaries of this nature), but really like both. It’s almost impossible to compare them because the approaches are so divergent. Stylistically, I think Big Short “works” much better than the other McCay movies that are similar in nature.
Disney got rid of the magical express free magic bands, house keeping was bad, the costs have gone up badly Disney dining package you get less & less & you can no longer swap meals for snacks or get candy, it is not our fault that there is not the infrastructure to accommodate people on rides & expect us to pay extra, they change things for the worst, and to top it all there’s the DAS debacle, what are they going to magic up next, it’s getting to be SAD days at Disney.
Everything you’re listing is across-the-board. None of it explains why crowd levels are disproportionately down over Independence Day.
I totally understand (and even share!) most of these grievances, but they’re similar to politics–in that they don’t really help us understand why this particular holiday is down…while other holidays are still very busy.