Will Disney World’s Low Crowds Continue?
It’s no surprise that crowds are low at Walt Disney World right now. In Summer Is Not Peak Season at Walt Disney World, we’ve covered how this has been the “new off-season” for the last few years at Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and especially Epcot. In this post, we’ll look at how things are now–and offer predictions as to whether Walt Disney World’s low crowds will continue this fall and Christmas.
At the beginning of this year, we predicted that Summer 2020 was likely to be one of the least-busy stretches of the year at Walt Disney World. This was despite Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway being open, and our expectation that Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure would likewise debut prior to summer. That was also well before the prospect of the parks closing was even on our radar, which obviously changed things dramatically.
Shortly before the parks reopened, the big question was whether there’d be a surge in crowds due to pent-up demand and a spike in wait times due to rides operating at reduced capacity…or not. Here’s what we’ve observed thus far on numerous visits to all four of Walt Disney World’s theme parks in the last 2+ weeks since they reopened, plus what we expect in August, September, October, November, and December…
With regard to the above question, regular readers of this blog know that we’ve been firmly in the “or not” camp for a while. Back at the beginning of April, we published How Crowded Will Walt Disney World Be When It Reopens? That predicted crowds would drop at least 50% for the remainder of the year (even more for October), and that was as we made several best case scenario assumptions. As should be obvious by now, nothing about this has played out in manner that could be described as the “best case.”
In other words, low crowds and depressed attendance was easily foreseeable months in advance, albeit not to the extent we’re now seeing. There’s a lot of new information and circumstances have changed pretty significantly in the last couple of months, which will have ramifications for the remainder of 2020 (more on that below).
More recently (in the beginning of June), we predicted that after a brief period of pent-up demand was exhausted, organic demand would be low at Walt Disney World for the next few years. This is something we’ve covered in numerous posts, most notably our Dawn of a Temporary Disney Era: Low Crowds & Prices.
Our expectation that overall demand will plummet was (and is) predicated upon a variety of factors, including but not limited to health & safety concerns, Florida’s growing case numbers, various state quarantine rules (read this before booking), mandatory mask opposition, unemployment levels, economic uncertainty, high heat & humidity, general travel trepidation, and Annual Pass cancellations. On top of that, many guests feel that the value proposition simply isn’t there with shorter park hours, reduced entertainment, and more.
What’s a bit more inexplicable is how Walt Disney World is handling Park Pass reservations. If you’ve seen our AP updates, you’re no doubt aware that dates and parks have fully booked up for Annual Passholders, sometimes over a month in advance.
However, it’s important to reiterate that Disney is using three separate “buckets” for Park Pass inventory, and the ones for resort guests and theme park ticket holders have been green for the entirety of the calendar. So it’s more a matter of Walt Disney World artificially restricting AP access to the parks, and not fully reallocating unused resort and day guest availability to APs, rather than intense demand.
Walt Disney World’s reluctance in reallocating Park Pass inventory has been a point of frustration for Annual Passholders. While we’ve felt this ourselves, we also have to laud Disney in their cautiousness. After scathing headlines and unflattering social media commentary from reopening weekend, Walt Disney World is undoubtedly sensitive to negative PR right now. Restricting attendance probably is a savvy and safe course of action until Florida’s numbers subside.
The point of this is not to critique Disney Park Pass policies. We’ve done that enough elsewhere. It’s to point out that even though many dates in some parks are “fully booked” for Annual Passholders, that’s an artificial constraint that isn’t indicative of how busy the parks actually are. Conversely, even ‘opening up the floodgates’ to Annual Passholders would have a negligible impact on crowds outside of Disney’s Hollywood Studios, which is a different beast entirely.
Suffice to say, over the course of the last couple weeks, Walt Disney World has consistently been the least crowded we’ve ever experienced. Less busy than the 1990s when “times were different.” Less busy than at the peak of the Great Recession. Less busy than immediately before or after Hurricane Irma.
And while capacity is capped, this phenomenon is largely occurring due to a lack of demand, not due to limitations Walt Disney World is imposing on attendance.
You’ve no doubt seen photos by now that show how an eerily uncrowded Walt Disney World. As is probably clear, these are not flukes or Photoshop trickery–you could enter Magic Kingdom this afternoon and maybe see a dozen other guests on Main Street.
The same is true in various areas of every park. You could do bioluminescence angels on the ground in Pandora (not recommended), skip through Toy Story Land (toss-up), or have a lightsaber duel under the Millennium Falcon (highly recommended), without being stepped on, getting weird looks, or decapitating an innocent bystander, as the case may be.
This is mostly a byproduct of the low crowds, but the lack of virtual queues–which allow guests to effectively be in two places at once–also play a role.
It also seems that most guests are avoiding the scorching wide-open outdoor areas, and instead spending time in the comparative comfort of shops, restaurants, or attraction lines.
Speaking of lines, if you’ve been watching the My Disney Experience app, the low wait times you’ve seen should largely speak for themselves.
For readers who are normal and don’t stalk the My Disney Experience app from thousands of miles away (not that there’s anything wrong with that), these numbers have generally been low.
Even those generally low numbers could use added context. One thing to note with regard to wait times is that they’re inflated across the board at Walt Disney World right now. This is typically true, but maybe by about 10-15% on average.
Now, it’s not uncommon to see posted wait times that are double the actual number, if not more. Tower of Terror, Splash Mountain, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, Big Thunder Mountain, and Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster have been the biggest offenders in our anecdotal experiences.
The good news there is that the actual wait times at most attractions are easy to eyeball. Due to physical distancing, many lines spill outside their entrance if the wait is actually long. In addition, the lack of FastPass+ makes everything more predictable.
Rather than going by posted wait times, we’ve primarily just been looking at the queues wherever possible and jumping into line when the wait appears short. There’s a bit of a learning curve with this, but by your second or third day in the parks, you get the hang of it.
The vast majority of attractions we’ve done have been walk-ons or under 10 minute waits. This includes headliner attractions like Avatar Flight of Passage, Slinky Dog Dash, Soarin, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, and more.
The longest wait we’ve experienced thus far was for Jungle Cruise, and that was more a result of incredibly low capacity and boat cleaning than it was guest demand. (For unrelated reasons, we’d skip Jungle Cruise going forward.)
As we’ve ‘found our groove’ visiting the parks, we’ve done more late arrivals, arriving after midday and staying until park closing. We’ve already shared some of these in our various park reports, but want to reiterate how well this is going.
It’s very clear that most guests arrive around or shortly after park opening, get everything done relatively quickly due to the low crowds and relatively short waits, and leave by mid-afternoon due to that plus the oppressively hot and humid weather.
Consequently, by showing up in the last few hours the parks are open, you can do pretty much everything with wait times of under 15 minutes. In the last two hours Animal Kingdom is open, Flight of Passage wait times are so low that you can literally re-ride with zero wait.
The only park where this has not proven true for us is Epcot. Due to that park’s appeal among locals (and the fact that it’s open until 9 pm), it seems to be the primary ‘after work’ draw with larger crowds in the evening than the morning. Consequently, we’ve had to wait in line for ~15 minutes at Frozen Ever After and Test Track after 8 pm. Short waits by normal standards, but long by current ones. (At least Soarin’ and Living with the Land have been walk-ons at night.)
Another thing that’s worth noting here is that weekends are the “busiest” time to visit Walt Disney World. This is a trend that will undoubtedly be true throughout the remainder of 2020. This is the case because weekends are the best time for Floridians to visit, and they currently make up a larger than normal percentage of all guests.
We’ve visited on weekends a few times already, and the difference is noticeable. It’s still nothing that would qualify as busy or even moderately crowded by normal standards. If we were using a numerical scale, weekdays would be a .5 out of 10 and weekends would be 2/10 or 3/10 depending upon the park.
This might leave you wondering what this could mean for crowds in the coming months. Frankly, we don’t anticipate significant changes between now and December 2020.
Attendance will undoubtedly tick upwards, but we expect that to be driven by the lifting of Cast Member blockouts and more Park Pass availability being allocated to Annual Passholders. The big result of that will be a greater chasm between the low weekday crowds and higher (but still historically low) weekend numbers.
It’s doubtful that tourists will return to Walt Disney World in significant numbers for the remainder of 2020. As covered in the commentary section of yesterday’s Walt Disney World Delays Resort Reopening Timeline post, occupancy rates have actually been falling for the remainder of 2020–cancellations are outpacing new bookings.
This is not particularly surprising. Anecdotally, we’ve regularly heard from countless readers over the course of the last few weeks that Florida’s rising case numbers are giving them pause or have already caused them to cancel. Suffice to say, the real world circumstances in Florida are dramatically different now than they were when Walt Disney World announced its reopening plans in late May.
The silver lining there is that since peaking in mid-June, virtually all indicators have been trending in the right direction for Orange County (where Walt Disney World is located) for several weeks now. The county was ahead of the curve on masks and restricting bars after tracing several outbreaks to Orlando nightclubs. Universal and Disney have undoubtedly helped, setting a precedent for safety standards and habituating locals to effective mitigation measures.
However, Orange County is located within Florida, where things still do not look good on the whole. That’s what makes the headlines and shapes public opinion. We’ve been hoping Florida would do more to get those numbers trending in the right direction, but that has yet to happen. Perhaps as more major businesses require masks (and actually enforce the rules) or once the weather cools down and more Floridians get out of the air-conditioning the situation will improve.
Either way, time is running out and we’re nearing the point where the rest of the year is a lost cause for Walt Disney World from a tourist perspective. On average, Walt Disney World vacations are booked 5-6 months in advance. In order to salvage November and December, people would need to be booking trips right now. Between the news and the quarantine rules, that’s unlikely to be happening in any large numbers.
Even assuming more people than normal are willing to book last minute trips due to the fluidity and uncertainty of the times, Florida’s numbers probably need to trend downwards significantly by late August. Even if that does happen, we’re still looking at Walt Disney World’s least busy Christmas season in over a decade.
With that said, we do expect the holidays to be busier than now. November and December still have more vacation packages booked than September and October (although that’s not saying a ton) and many of those with trips booked who are on the fence will delay cancelling as long as possible. That could give Florida enough time to get its act together.
On top of that, Christmas is a very popular time for Walt Disney World fans. It’s also a time of year when the weather is more pleasant, making mask-wearing more comfortable and dining outdoors more practical. Add those factors to Disney’s glowing health safety reviews, and there’s likely to be an uptick. Still much lower than normal, but likely busier than right now.
September and October are different stories entirely. The weather is still uncomfortable then, schools are back in session, whatever pent-up demand exists among lower-tier APs will likely be exhausted, and Halloween has effectively been cancelled. September is always the slowest month of the year at Walt Disney World, and that’s likely to be especially pronounced this year.
In short, September 2020 will likely be the least busy month at Walt Disney World since the same month in 2001. We expect September to be so slow for Central Florida tourism that we’re genuinely concerned some non-Disney parks will shift to seasonal operating schedules, potentially closing on weekdays.
October is usually a different story, but so much of that is fueled by special events. By that, we mean not just Walt Disney World’s offerings, but also conventions and group events. None of that is happening this year. There are also questions about how (or if) school breaks will cause crowd spikes.
We doubt it, and instead expect October to resemble a slightly busier version of September. August will likely be somewhere in between, but that’s a bit of a wildcard with schools returning to session but also lower levels of Annual Passes and Cast Members starting to be unblocked.
Ultimately, a lot still remains to be seen. As we’ve stressed many times, we would not travel to Florida right now if we lived out of state, and we don’t recommend anyone else do so, either. Walt Disney World’s exceptional safety measures give new meaning to the “Disney bubble,” but the parks still don’t exist in a vacuum. You have to travel to get here, and are exposing yourself to higher risk scenarios along the way and during your visit.
However, a lot can change in only a short period of time–a lesson we’ve probably all learned dozens of times over recently. If the prospect of low crowds and short waits outweighs the currently compromised experience, your best option is to be as flexible as possible and able to book a trip on shorter notice than normal. If you’re on the fence, choose target travel dates for October or beyond and be ready to pounce if things start looking more promising. If they are not, cancel or don’t book. That’s really the best advice we can offer right now given the fluidity and uncertainty of everything.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you considering a trip later this year, or have Florida’s rising numbers (or other factors) already made that out of the question? When do you think the ideal time to visit this year will be? Expect more discounts or low crowds for the remainder of the year? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment of crowds at WDW? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I keep seeing a variation on a post in these threads that says it’s ridiculous that Disney is still charging the same for a reduced experience. Considering that based on Tom’s reports, the parks are so empty that it’s the equivalent of getting a VIP tour that people pay thousands of dollars a day for, I feel pretty good about the value Disney is offering right now. But then, Disney crowds were getting to the point where it was just starting to kill the magic for me–when you’re wading through wall to wall people and all FP distribution is gone by midday, it is just not a good trip. Really looking forward a trip without crowds for once.
Agreed. The reality also is that, at least right now, the vast majority of guests are DVC members, Annual Passholders, and Florida Residents who are *not* paying full price.
I’m guessing that the number of out of state tourists visiting with single or multi-day tickets have plummeted. And while compromising on entertainment, those guests are (as you point out) benefiting from dramatically lower crowds.
General public discounts will come–just give it time. (Not directed at you, MomOTwins, just in general.)
I find the lack of fireworks disturbing. I love the smell of black powder burning! But the excellent crowd levels are really more of a benefit for me since I fondly recall even the 1990s crowd levels versus recent years of misery and throngs of thoughtless fools clogging all walkways.
I’m a Canadian visitor who was holding onto an altered free dining reservation but unfortunately I had to cancel when they announced an extension to the travel ban into August. I had mixed feelings about our upcoming vacation but quite honestly I could really use the vacation and these are unprecedented times and would probably make for a unique trip. If I could go and it was safe to do so I would but I’m thankful I can at least live vicariously through your awesome blog Tom. Thanks for keeping us up to date with all the WDW latest.
Jen, Canada is a beautiful country you should vacation there and get away a bit you don’t have to do Florida now! Not worth it!
Very true Robert! I travel to Disney with someone who has a disability for whom familiarity and routine is important. Disney offers that for us and they pretty much take care of everything. My person does not do well with new things, not to say a domestic trip can’t be done. There’s just a lot more hurdles for us.
So, I think continuing to charge the same rates when there are less offerings is a bit insane. I think that so many restrictions on how to prove residency is an issue, For instance my license expired. I work long hours and 7 days a week. To get a new license is mind numbing. MY husband has his I have utilities in my name but no not good enough. That aside I LOVE DISNEY!! I just love the atmosphere. They happy faces of the cast members everywhere, With no Character meet and greats and so many closures why on earth or better how on earth do you justify the rates especially at this time. I believe we are going to move from Florida soon and my Disney days may be over. I am 56. I will no longer be able to take a 3 hour drive to get there. MY husband is ill and the day is coming that we just will not be able to go. I am actually quite sad over this situation. I wish upon star that my dreams will come true and I can return but it looks like Disney is not helping out their loyal visitors and this truly makes me sad.
Did something change? The rules still appear to be the same on the Disney website. As someone who owns property in FL but lives in MI, I had to show tax bill and electric bill. Was no issue at all
https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/tickets/proof-florida-address/
I’m glad that these issues have been brought up here – I hope Disney is listening. While the ticket prices are fair and represent a pretty good value, in my opinion, the resort rack rates (other than Value resorts) have gotten obscenely expensive – even when considering their quality (and then to start charging extra for parking after all these years?). Same goes for food prices – almost laughable if it weren’t so frustrating. Disney’s mindset seems to be charge what the market will bear. This is fine up to a point, but then it reaches a level that feels unseemly and greedy, to be honest. Additionally, they’ve been packing the place with no apparent concern for the quality of guest experience, in terms of crowds, for far too long. Not only do you have fun-crushing lines everywhere, but 180-day reservation planning and a constant mindset of: How can we do this and avoid a massive crowd? I hate to sound so negative, but jeez Disney! I’m having a hard time sympathizing with your financial woes!
The very fact that I read and respond to this blog on a regular basis, I think, proves what a dedicated parks fan I am. I must admit, however, that this break from what has been the Disney norm of recent years, while devastating and anxiety-provoking, also brings a small sense of…hope? The planning of everything 180-days in advance, the seemingly endless upward creep of food and resort prices, the ankle-biting charges for packages, parking, etc., on top of the extended standy wait times that were the side effect of FastPass+, and don’t even get me started on the pain of staking out a viewing spot for Happily Ever After… I am married to a wonderful man who does not share my love of Disney. As such, we have agreed that he will cheerfully support an extended family Disney trip every 3-years, and I take shorter trips to WDW or DL with my girlfriends on an annual-ish basis. After our (joyful and memorable) 2018 10-night family trip to the World, I felt deeply unsettled at the fact that our vacation had cost the equivalent of a year’s college tuition at our best state universities. The following year, we took a fantastic 10-day trip to Europe for literally 40% of the price. I am not going to be one of those people to comment, “This is the last straw! Disney lost me over *parking fees, reduction in EMH, etc…* I know I’ll always visit in some way, shape or form, but I have definitely come to resent the reduction in value coupled with the increased bureaucracy I have experienced as a repeat Disney visitor over the decades. I am, of course, terribly worried for the future of the parks division, upon seeing current reports of such low demand. I just can’t help but hope that, perhaps, there will be a resetting of prices and/or revised approach to flexibility in planning as the long-term operational and economic impacts of this pandemic reveal themselves.
So, I think continuing to charge the same rates when there are less offerings is a bit insane. I think that so many restrictions on how to prove residency is an issue, For instance my license expired. I work long hours and 7 days a week. To get a new license is mind numbing. MY husband has his I have utilities in my name but no not good enough. That aside I LOVE DISNEY!! I just love the atmosphere. They happy faces of the cast members everywhere, With no Character meet and greats and so many closures why on earth or better how on earth do you justify the rates especially at this time. I believe we are going to move from Florida soon and my Disney days may be over. I am 56. I will no longer be able to take a 3 hour drive to get there. MY husband is ill and the day is coming that we just will not be able to go. I am actually quite sad over this situation. I wish upon star that my dreams will come true and I can return but it looks like Disney is not helping out their loyal visitors and this truly makes me sad.
I think your comment probably sums up how a lot of people are feeling right now. When the closure first happened and it was clear we were heading towards a recession, I had an odd sense of optimism about such a reset. Things had gotten out of control over the course of the last several years.
With the reopening PR and continuing woes of Florida, I’ve become more and more worried about the future of the parks. Layoffs were already an inevitability regardless of how well things went, but now I’m concerned at just how bad they will be, along with the likelihood that Walt Disney World is about to enter a lost decade.
Yes! The ridiculous levels of planning required, and the debacle of Fastpass-Minus has detracted from my trip enjoyment the last few years.
Thanks for your advice tom we had the perfect vacation planned second week in September going to the Halloween party Sunday night and going in with DVC member friends to the Hollywood studioOn Tuesday for a moonlight magic. Resort resort Resort resort reservations at contemporary so I could walk into the Halloween party. Have been reluctant to cancel this but we live out of state and will take care of your advice not to travel down to Florida yet. We have a second week in December trip planned staying at yacht club and have not renewed our Annual passes. Is it true that if I buy park tickets now and before using them could apply that money to buy a new annual passes?
Love your pictures I was the one who asked to see more people walking around in the parks and as you showed here there aren’t many people but you could take some pictures of people coming off the rides I always enjoy seeing what Sarah is wearing and this way I could see what other people are worried as well are usually see some cute Disney clothes that I haven’t seen before anotherPeople in the parks.
Gah! I’m a California resident who has been wanting to go to Disney World for years. I’m extremely lucky that my financial situation hasn’t changed at all in the pandemic but I assume when I feel safe to travel in terms of health I’m sure everyone else will too. Living vicariously through you as always! Enjoy for us.
What are your thoughts on Jan. 7-12 on crowd levels then? We normally go in December but we went ahead and planned a beach trip in Sept.
I can pretty confidently say “lower than this year” for those dates, but not much beyond that.
January feels like an eternity from now, and a lot could change between now and then. I think it’ll take a few years for WDW to fully recover in terms of crowds, but ‘time will tell’ for any more specific predictions.
Agreed! We may just pack up and go in October or the first of December. We just got back in December two weeks before Christmas.
We live in NC and always drive to Disney, so I am definetly watching to see if we can score a quick weekend trip, so as to not lose much time off from work since we already have a Dec Christmas trip planned as well. If I can make it work my husband and I just might head straight to Disney late Aug or sometime in Sept just because the crowds are so low, and for us that go often, and have dealt with crazy crowds…it is worth it! Thanks Tom for your great reports and insight. Any thoughts on Christmas decorations at the resorts yet?????
Really hoping to be able to resort hop in Dec to see decorations.
“Any thoughts on Christmas decorations at the resorts yet?????”
I certainly hope they do decorations this year, but I don’t have any insider info. It’d be a pretty big cut if they didn’t.
I would expect Florida to be out of the woods within a month or so. If you look at places that have had spikes previously, whether it’s New York or Italy, after about 2 months they are back down to pre-spike levels almost. The spike in places like Florida and Texas started mid June IIRC, meaning I would think by mid August the worst is behind them. You can already see the decrease in the daily numbers from 2-3 weeks ago, so it looks to be on track.
New York and Italy both had very strict stay at home orders and full non essential shut down. I don’t know what will happen in FL (I’m not an infectious disease expert) but it seems like a very long tail of high infections, crowded (if not at capacity) hospitals and large death tolls. Masks and people changing behavior due to all the bad news seems to be creating a plateau but to get the kind of drop NYC saw everything I have read indicates you’d need to implement a stay at home which seems unlikely.
word of caution looking at any numbers moving forward- numbers are no longer going through the CDC but rather the white house, expect huge changes to what we’ve been seeing. i would not be planning a trip anywhere anytime in the next 18 months. plus, the way florida’s leadership has handled things is grossly incompetent, so optimism in cases dropping is… optimistic, at best.
New York is far from the model you want to follow. They had a higher death rate (deaths per 1M people) than anywhere else in the world due to incompetent leadership decisions such as sending sick people back into nursing homes. Their death rate was and is almost quadruple the average the rest of the country is seeing. I am not telling anyone what they should do, but both Florida and Texas will soon see their spikes flatten. It’s already started. Just like everywhere else that has seen this virus spike. If you want to stay home, stay home. That is your right as an American. But that is a decision based on fear IMO, not facts and data.
hope your right, Fl here, miss the parks, but not going anytime soon.
I got my park reservation for Hollywood Studios For Monday, July 27th, literally the night before on Sunday evening. We got to the park at about 9:45 am, got in line, was inside the park by 9:57 AM just in time for the 10:00 AM Rise if the Resistance reservation, and got group 23. There were no breakdowns in the morning, and we went on ROTR by 12:15 pm. After about 2:00 pm the park literally felt like it was about 95% empty. We waited about 10 minutes for Mickey and Minnies new train attraction, and did everything in the park we liked multiple times. We left three hours early as we had done everything we wanted multiple times. It was fun, but a bit depressing, as the lack of any hustle bustle from the crowd, makes it feel a bit eerie. From a safety standpoint, it felt 10 times safer than any public grocery store or Walmart. I heard a Disney cast members even correct small children to pull their face mask correctly over their nose. You can tell they have been preached to and trained to be very aggressive at calling folks out that might not be complying all the time. I think that is a very good thing and happy they were doing that. I did miss not being able to park hop, but know that might not happen for quite some time.
We are driving at the end of August and will minimize stops. Honestly, my local grocery store is more crowded and maybe 75% of the people wear a mask (correctly or otherwise).
I’m not missing out on record low crowds, and our stay at a DVC villa will allow us to eat more in the room.
DVC member from Mass. and had April trip cancelled and rescheduled for August where there was availability in every hotel I looked. Just had to cancel August trip due to new Mass travel ban going into effect August 1 (14 day quarantine returning to state). Since my Dec 2019 contract points are expiring and Disney refuses to extend the date, I have to book by Nov 30. Went to look for Thanksgiving and there’s not one room available for any hotel. To Tom’s point I think people are waiting to cancel, but as of right now there’s no availability and now I am going to lose 220 points and likely will sell my DVC as a result. Wish Disney would reconsider extending all DVC contracts that were due to expire this year.
Did you look at any other week aside from Thanksgiving? I’m seeing considerably better than normal availability (on such relatively short notice) for November and December at DVC resorts.
Yes but kids (15, 13, 11) are in school and cannot take them out……..Thanksgiving is only time they are out of school that we could travel before contract expires….Worse thing is, i banked my Dec 2018 points for the original trip in April and am losing those too so would be going on 3 years no points and paying dues………Not to overstate the obvious, but DVC does not make sense if you cant use the points for 3 straight years!
I’m off on use years (Dec use year always messes me up) but point is i will be losing points that are scheduled to expire and who knows what could happen in 2021
Did you look into renting out your points? I know that several real estate agencies offer this. Guessing that the market is pretty flooded right now, but might be worth a shot. Another suggestion- take the kids out of school. Are they even going back in person? Get their work ahead of time and have them do homework in the airports, or in the evenings as the parks close early anyway. They just went through months of working on their own- They should be good at it now! Seriously, unless there are learning issues, they will catch up. Hope you can work something out…
I wouldn’t hesitate to take kids out of school for a WDW trip, ever. But especially not now. We don’t even know what ‘school’ will look like anyway and if you absolutely had to, they could do some Zoom or whatever from the resort just as if they were home…
I’ve had the points for rent at David’s DVC rental and just threw them up in a different forum but there is zero demand. Unfortunately missing school is not an option in my household, they’ve missed too much school already. I will likely just sell my 2 contracts at BLT and rent points in we ever decide to go again in the future
Tom…
Looking ahead to 2021, and the glut of DVC points pushed forward due to canceled trips, do you see a scenario where non-DVC excess capacity at hotels is used to satisfy DVC demand? Looking at DVC availability the last week of June now, there is zero availability. Not sure if that’s due to actual reservations (11 months out) or WDW scaling back on reservation availability. Point is, you mention thinking demand will continue to be depressed, but the DVC demand appears to be robust. Thoughts?
John
“do you see a scenario where non-DVC excess capacity at hotels is used to satisfy DVC demand?”
I really hope that’s what they do, but I have doubts that it’ll actually happen.
As for the DVC phenomenon in general, that’s something we discussed a bit in yesterday’s post: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-world-delays-resort-reopening-timeline/ and also: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-vacation-club-point-pool-problem-closed/
Suffice to say, we’re trying to use as many of our 2021 points as possible this year.
This is why I will sell……..Losing my 2019 points and good chance I will not be able to use 2020 points while paying the dues is just not financially feasible for me. This is likely to have spill over affect at Riviera since prices for other hotels will be way cheaper than Rivera asking price, stunting those sales and driving down prices across the board at all resorts (and likely the reason Reflections Lakeside Lodge was suspended)
We are officially in a recession that will not abate until COVID is conquered. A loss of consumer confidence coupled with a fear of infection will continue to take a toll on Disney (and others) that rely on crowds for their movies, parks, and merchandise to keep the Mickey juggernaut chugging along.
Despite decades of our best efforts we haven’t “conquered” the common cold, influenza. cancer and a host of other diseases. If waiting to “conquer” COVID is the precursor for a good economy we are probably in deep, self-inflicted trouble. I’ve so far gone about my life relatively unaffected by COVID and the efforts of a myriad of those who think they know what’s better for me than I do. We take reasonable precautions for us and those with whom we come in contact and go about our business.
As I said earlier, we are looking forward to a relatively peaceful and uncrowded visit in October. I guess “recessions” have an upside too. Just depends on one’s perspective.
Thank you so much Tom for being honest about traveling to Florida right now. I hope by December when I’m going (coming from New Jersey) the situation is better. I love Disney World! Go every December. But, if it’s not I’ll reschedule for next December. Once again thank you !
I am surprised companies like Disney aren’t saying more about the out of control virus. I saw the first hint of that sentiment from Delta. But for large travel destinations, airlines and hotels the future is bleak if the virus continues out of control. FL reported their highest one day death toll today. I don’t mind masks my family want to take our December trip but I’m not traveling to a state that can’t protect people and hasn’t really even tried.
You mean like Disney forcing Florida’s hand with regard to certain state-wide policies? I’m honestly surprised that hasn’t happened yet.
Yep that’s exactly what I mean. I am surprised large companies aren’t pushing for better wide spread policies to get things under control. Wanting the economy to just get back to normal was al well and good but it won’t happen if infections, hospitalizations and deaths are as high as they are now. There are some signs of plateau with the policies that have been implemented but a plateau at 17-19% positive, 9000 cases a day and record daily deaths isn’t going to allow for economic growth. I’m just surprised companies aren’t pushing for better policies vocally
@Tom and @Katie we have been surprised also that Disney has not tried to influence the state more! Don’t really get it would’ve thought Disney would’ve pushed harder.
I have a burgeoning theory that only an insane Parks-obsessed mind could consider – if my kids are virtual learning, then it won’t hurt to take a week or so off in mid October. If we drive down from PA to FL, we can avoid most contact. So we could have the parks at historically low crowd levels… it’s crazy enough to work! Mostly stay at the resort and swim, eat outside. I’m going to run this by my wife, who will probably give me some epic-level stink eye for even suggesting it.
Local types should enjoy this while it lasts and make the best out of an otherwise horrific situation.
Be safe, love the site and my family will (99% probably) be living vicariously through your visits!
We always drive from PA. I fly too much. We do an overnight, relax, have dinner.
I’m right there with you! However, slightly apprehensive of being shunned by our community when we return or having to do a 14 day quarantine. My husband and I were at WDW the last weekend it was open in March and Epcot the last day. It was empty and glorious! However, it would have been hard to relax if our kids were there because they touch everything. When parents would yell at their kids for touching railings, touching their faces, and standing to close to people, we just sat back and were glad it wasn’t us. Lol
This is my mindset too and I dont understand why I’m not finding cheaper resort options. We are used to first/second week of September trips with steep discounts and free dining and lower crowds. Coming this year would be more expensive that years prior, and it doesn’t add up to me.
We arrived on July 24th and it has been hit or miss with crowds. While definitely not “Hollywood Studios Rise of the Resistance opening month crowds“, Magic Kingdom was surprisingly busy Saturday And Hollywood Studios was solid . Consistent 45 min+ waits for Thunder and 7DMT (sometimes dropping to 30 min, sometimes popping up to 60 min – likely during cleanings). While those are good compared to pre-COVID, it has definitely increased in the past week.
Epcot was/is still super empty.
And you are 100% spot on with going in the evening. We showed up at MK at 4:00pm on Friday and did 7DMT, Space, Buzz, Speedway, Thunder, Splash, and Pirates. Plus 3 photo pass shots!
Out of curiosity, did you wait in 45-60 minute lines or were those simply the posted wait times?
Posted and were how long we actually waited. The lines were physically longer on Saturday compared to what we saw on Friday evening (So it wasn’t just Disney managing traffic). None of this was a shock – it was a Saturday at Magic Kingdom -, but I would hate people to go thinking they were going to nearly walk on every ride.
Friday evening was amazing. Saturday was just ok. Early in the morning Saturday it was great. Around 12:30 (after visiting Country Bears) it was noticeably busier.
We let our passes expire last Jan as the marked price increase was just too much for our household. I did buy my husband two Florida resident 4 day Discover Disney vouchers last Christmas. We have yet to be able to trade them for tickets. Multiple emails to WDW have not answered any of my questions, instead they just tell me about Disney Dining. I never even asked about dining. We would love to go to WDW right now (especially since it’s less crowded than Walmart) I can’t get in. I’m EXTREMELY frustrated with the process. There is no way I’m the only Floridian with $800 worth of vouchers that need to be exchanged for tickets.
Looking forward to a wonderful October days in a hopefully uncrowded WDW.
We have reservations in Oct also but not going to risk getting the virus by going to WDW. We have a week at Port Orleans that can be easily canceled and for the first time we took a risk and booked a week at the Polynesian Resort David’s Rentals also . As it stands now they will open in Oct and we lose our money. David’s is trying to sell the points to someone else but
haven’t heard back from them. Could be worse!