Major Hurricane Milton Forecast to Hit Florida
Tropical Storm Milton has officially formed and the National Hurricane Center is already forecasting it to become a major hurricane that will make landfall in Florida next week. Not only that, but Walt Disney World is preparing for this system in a way that the parks & resorts never did for Helene last month. This offers an update on the system’s status, impacts around Orlando, WDW policies, and more.
The key thing to know is that it’s currently business as usual at Walt Disney World for now. The company has not announced any closures, cancellations, or operational impacts whatsoever due to Tropical Storm Milton. If you’re simply worried about what could be closing or changing at the resorts, water parks, restaurants, etc., the answer is nothing. So far.
With that said, Disney always monitors the weather and will prioritize guest and Cast Member safety above all else. It’s premature for any announcements about Walt Disney World operations. We’d expect that to happen on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday, and only if it becomes clear that Milton will pose an actual threat–beyond just wet weather and wind–to Walt Disney World.
The National Weather Service on Saturday night reported that Tropical Storm Milton has sustained winds of 40 mph as it moved north-northeast at 3 mph. The system is located about 245 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico and 385 miles west-northwest of Progresso, Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 35 miles.
As of the latest update on October 5, 2024 from the National Hurricane Center, here are the key messages for Tropical Storm Milton…
On Monday, Milton should begin to track a little faster toward the east as it moves ahead of trough approaching the southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center approaching the west coast of Florida.
The official intensity forecasts calls for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours (likely on late Sunday night), and a major hurricane by 72 hours (likely on Monday). The regional hurricane models continue to be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton.
For now, the NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple
life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of Florida beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings risks of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis issued an executive order that declares a state of emergency for over half of the counties in the state (pretty much everywhere south of the panhandle). The intensifying of Milton resulted in the governor issuing the declaration for 35 of Florida’s 67 counties. The state of emergency includes all Central Florida counties, including Osceola or Orange, which Walt Disney World calls home.
According to the social media pages of several Central Florida cities and the Florida Division of Emergency Management, sandbag distribution centers are going to start opening in the coming days to allow residents to prepare for potential Milton impacts. Florida state and local government agencies are already taking Milton very seriously.
Obviously, things could change between now and mid-week, but this system looks like it could be a scary one for the west coast of the state. In watching the local weather forecasts, we’ve seen two different meteorologists bring up the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921, which was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane to hit the Tampa Bay area since 1848.
For its part, Walt Disney World appears to already be making quiet adjustments to prepare for Hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida. When attempting to book hotel rooms, the Walt Disney World website is suddenly showing no availability for any searches that include October 9-10. Availability is fairly wide open both before and after, but if you include either (or both) of those dates in your search, there’s magically nothing.
To be clear, we do not intend upon booking an on-site hotel at Walt Disney World during a major hurricane. Been there, done that. This is simply something we always check, as it’s a common first-step that Walt Disney World takes in order to have operational flexibility to extend stays for guests who are stranded (also been there, done that) or who are evacuating from the coasts.
Notably, this is not something we saw with Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago. But Walt Disney World was never in the projected path to the extent it is with Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to make landfall around Tampa and has a projected path going directly through Walt Disney World and Orlando.
We’re not attempting to be alarmists, just sharing what we’re seeing and hearing. The tone of Central Florida weather forecasters suggests that Hurricane Milton could be a serious storm, with consequential wind, surge and flood concerns. It’s possible they’re erring on the side of caution or are overly-concerned due to how hard-hit portions of the Carolinas were by Helene, but these warnings already sound more urgent than they did for that system.
Anyone who has experienced storm season in Florida knows these forecasts can–and usually do–change. In the past few years, hurricanes originally forecast to miss Florida entirely have swerved towards the state and others with a high probability of wreaking havoc have weakened at the last minute.
It’s always better to err on the side of caution and be prepared rather than not taking a major storm system seriously. Regardless of how models evolve, Hurricane Milton will bring heavier than normal precipitation and wind to Central Florida, meaning that–at best–it’s going to an even rainier week at Walt Disney World.
You’ll definitely want to keep an eye on this system if you’re currently planning to be in the parks this coming week. At minimum, come prepared for heavy rain, as Walt Disney World is now in the heart of tropical storm season!
Aside from the aforementioned wet and windy weather, the operational impact on Walt Disney World is still unknown. Again, Walt Disney World has not issued any closures or warnings.
Our hope is that Hurricane Milton won’t necessitate a closure of the Walt Disney World theme parks. But, “hope” isn’t really a plan or anything. And this probably goes without saying, you should get severe weather preparedness advice from sources other than a fan blog about Disney.
As it concerns our actual area of expertise, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a relocation of guests from Fort Wilderness and the cancellation of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party on October 8 and 10, 2024. Other nighttime spectaculars may also be cancelled, Typhoon Lagoon will likely close, and various tours and other things will likely be cancelled.
Honestly, if the meteorologists are correct with their concerns and nothing about the tracking changes for Hurricane Milton, we would not be surprised to see an early closure on Tuesday afternoon or evening, followed by a full-day closure for Walt Disney World’s theme parks on Wednesday.
Since Walt Disney World has not yet issued any updates, its normal hurricane policy is in place. That takes effect when a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for the guest’s place of residence within 7 days before the scheduled arrival date of the storm. Although that has not happened yet, it’s incredibly common for Walt Disney World to accommodate guests and allow cancellations or changes without penalty even in the current circumstances.
This is at the discretion of phone representative with whom you speak, and outcomes can differ given the circumstances. As always, be kind to Cast Members, booking agents, travel agents, or anyone whose assistance you need. Remember, they do not control the weather. (Which seems like a silly thing to type, but you’d be surprised how many people seem to think that.) If the concept of kindness for its own sake is too much to grasp, just remember that (selfishly!) you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.
We’ll keep you posted with updates from the National Hurricane Center and operational updates from Walt Disney World if/when one is released. If you’re planning a visit, you can also consult our Tips for Hurricane & Storm Season at Walt Disney World for generalized advice on packing, avoiding the worst of the wet weather, and even riding out a hurricane. We hope it won’t come to that with Milton!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you concerned that Hurricane Milton will impact Walt Disney World? Are you currently in Central Florida? Have you visited during past tropical storms or hurricanes? Any additional info, thoughts, or first-hand experiences to share about riding out a hurricane at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I’m supposed to arrive Friday at noon. Hoping all goes smoothly by then but it is what it is, and I just hope everyone stays safe.
I just arrived last night in Orlando. I didn’t think to book reservations for annual pass earlier, and right now there are no reservations available for Wednesday. I guess that means WDW is likely to be closed on Wednesday?
Also I’m wondering if anyone has stayed offsite and relied on Uber to get to/ from WDW to hotel. Are there Ubers available the days before and after the storm? Thank you! This is my first time traveling alone to WDW so I booked offsite for the first time, and that happens to be hurricane time. What luck!
I would have cancelled if I haven’t already arrived in Orlando. I’m really hoping this wouldn’t be too bad.
Thanks Tom as always. A couple of tools I find very valuable as a central Floridian:
View the forecast models here:
https://www.windy.com/
Great meteorologist with daily commentary here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
having spent one hurricane at wdw where the parks closed for 1.5-2 days , get some drinks and foods that done necessarily need refrigeration ( cooling fridges are small) We were lucky that we had brought snacks and drinks with us and got a few things b4 the park closed. We were at POP and the shelves were cleaned out quickly and sandwiches were about all th ey had left……….So if you are there during that time stock up for one or two days on what you will need for your family…………Dont hoard though, other families need the same things also.
Here we go again. Right now, the track is just to the north of the Magic Kingdom. If, and that needs to be regarded as IF, with full capital letters, that track remains unchanged, the eyewall and eye would almost certainly pass over the Magic Kingdom, and likely most if not all of the entire WDW resort and parks. Tracks often change…but sometimes they don’t.
Worse, this means that the right front quadrant of Milton will hit WDW and Orlando, and that is almost always the most destructive part of a hurricane.
The Magic Kingdom is some 85 miles from the coast. This will be a wind and rain event, with flash flooding. If the storm goes further south, that will be better for WDW and Orlando, as they will be affected by what is usually the weaker side of a hurricane. Right now, the spaghetti maps are all over the place, with the one thing in common being that the Florida peninsula is going to take it on the chin.
The things to pay attention to are the track, which can likely change, and can even change after landfall, and the forward speed of the storm. Right now, Milton has a forward motion of 5 mph, but this is expected to dramatically increase. The good news about a fast-moving storm is that it doesn’t stay over you for long, meaning less time in damaging wind and less time for flooding rain. The bad news is that the faster a storm moves, the slower it can often be to lose strength. Naturally, strength of the storm is another important factor. The most recent models have Milton increasing to a Cat. 3, but decreasing to a Cat 2 at, just before, or just after landfall. There is a very real possibility that WDW could be affected by Cat 2 winds. or even higher. This means sustained winds of 96-110 mph. The possibility that Milton could be a Cat 3 while hitting Orlando and WDW is not out of the question, meaning a possibility of sustained winds of 111-129 mph is a possibility, though I would consider it being a Cat 1 with sustained winds of 74-95 mph more likely than a Cat 3, at this point in time.
Right now, this is looking like a major hit on Tampa Bay, unless the track takes it significantly south. But right now, WDW and the surrounding area should expect widespread power outages. Fill up your car if you drove in or have a rental, because gas pumps do not work without electrical power. Park it as far away from trees, and on what you best judge to be higher ground. Get battery packs, and flashlights with regular batteries, plus bottled water. If power goes out, you can use your vehicle as an air conditioning oasis and charge your devices from it.
This is not going to be like Helene, which offered a mere glancing blow to WDW and Orlando. Winds will be anywhere from double to triple what was seen in storm. Pay close attention to any evacuation orders. If you’re in a resort or hotel with exterior hallways, such as the Moderate or Value resorts, expect to be stuck in your room for a number of hours. Stay away from downed power lines. If you’re staying in a private residence that has a portable generator, don’t use it unless you’re an expert, as a great many deaths and injuries after storms are generator related.
Pay close attention to any weather alerts, local rain forecasts or evacuation orders. Local forecasters are usually most reliable when the storm if actually hitting, due their micro knowledge and familiarity with the area.
I expect the storm to be losing strength as it passes over Orlando, but the big question is how much strength it will lose, due to forward motion speed, and losing strength from which starting point, information we won’t know until just before landfall. But when a hurricane sheds its strength, as Helene amply demonstrated, hurricanes often do so by increased rainfall.
Good luck to everyone! Pay close attention to your weather forecasts and do NOT take this storm lightly!
Paul, thank you for the in-depth explanation. Tom’s post and your hurricane information have proved most valuable. I am no where near Florida, but as a Disney fan, I am concerned for my “second home.” I will be watching the news reports on WDW and Milton with concerned interest.
Paul, always appreciate your thorough commentary on these storms. Great insight, as usual!
The good news is that the track has shifted south. The bad news is Milton is now forecast to come ashore as a Cat. 3.
Well this must be my fault. I dropped my annual pass last year and was gonna take a long break but then got invited to speak at a conference this Tues through Thurs so I came back. I’ve been here a few days for Halcy-con (which was lovely and heartwarming) but I don’t fly out till Friday. Do you have any knowledge on how Disney handles *conventions* during a hurricane? I’m betting that there won’t be one if things continue as they are but I have no idea…
Great to hear that Halcy-con went well! We have a friend down there for it, too!
As for how conventions are handled during a hurricane, sorry, I’m not sure. I assume it’s up to the event organizers who are “encouraged” by Disney to cancel and have to work within the parameters of Disney’s adjustments (so they probably lose catering and support staff, etc)–but again, not sure. I do know that when we got stranded at BoardWalk during a hurricane, they were using the ballrooms as dining rooms for guests. But BoardWalk is unique in that you can’t access any of the dining without going outdoors, and that’s obviously not allowed during a major hurricane.
I live in South Central FL and have reservations on the 13th through the 17th. What happens post hurricane Milton if it comes to that area? Would we be able to cancel or reschedule if WDW is closed or damaged?
I’m playing wait and see. Our flights are supposed to land at MCO at 9:50 on Wednesday night. Based on the current forecast the storm should be mostly through Orlando, but I think the flight will probably get cancelled. We might try to shift to Thursday to Monday instead of Wednesday to Sunday. All depends on if the storm speeds up or slows down. Also depends on flight availability for Love to MCO on Thursday.
Looks like worst case scenario for my trip is going to happen. We were mostly going for the Halloween party on Thursday. I’m going to wait to cancel until Tuesday or Wednesday but right now it looks like Disney is likely to have closures Wednesday and Thursday based on timing of the storm.
We have a trip at Christmas already scheduled so this was just a trip for Halloween and Food & Wine which we have never done but it’s probably going to have to wait another year.
I live about 100 miles north of Tampa, not on the coast but maybe 30miles east. Grandchildren and a great lives to Tampa. Yes worried. – but they are not in flood areas. Neither am I. I had reservation to come in on Wednesday the 8th. They had no problem canceling thst. Now I’m coming in on Thursday so hopefully by late afternoon things will settle down and I can still make the trip. Staying at Ft wilderness in RV so I won’t be going if there is any risk. Hopefully this will pass and there are no lives lost or unrepairable damage!! Stay safe Disney Friends!!
For hurricane dorian, which did not hit Disney, they closed fort wilderness because of potential flooding and moved everyone into hotels at no extra expense. I know this because I was at the beach club and folks from the campground were there.