Summer Is Not Peak Season at Disney World.
Summer crowds have been low at Walt Disney World the last few years, which bucks conventional wisdom that it’s peak tourist season in Florida. Summer 2020 is likely to be the least-busy stretch of the year at WDW, even though Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge is now open and both Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure and Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway will be open by then. (Updated February 14, 2020.)
The first time we experienced these low summer crowds, we assumed it was an anomaly. Wait time trends suggested otherwise. Even then, we assumed it was a one-off for that summer. However, the last couple of years have demonstrated that low to moderate crowds from late May through September are not a one-off or anomaly: it’s the new normal in terms of Walt Disney World crowds.
This is good news for those of you planning summer trips to Walt Disney World, as you should expect noticeably lighter crowds than what you would’ve experienced 4 years ago. It’s bad news for literally anyone else, as the decrease in summer attendance does not exist in a vacuum–it’s a redistribution of summer crowds to other months of the year. For proof of this, look no further than our new Peak Crowds in Winter 2020 “Off-Season” at Walt Disney World post…
As we discuss in our 2020 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar: When to Go & Avoid post, we are not expecting this to change in Summer 2020. This is despite Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure debuting in the France pavilion at Epcot this summer, and even though Star Wars: Rise fo the Resistance is still new.
The reality is that the excitement and hype over these new things is not enough to overcome the undesirability of a summer visit due to pricing and weather, and other factors we’ll discuss below…
The first reason for lower crowds during the summer is pricing. For both tickets and hotel rooms, summer pricing tends to be the highest of the year. To be sure, there are brief windows that see room rates and ticket prices spike higher, particularly around holidays and spring break. However, no other multi-month period has the same sustained level of higher prices as you’ll find in June and July.
While the average visitor to Walt Disney World does not do much planning, most do look at pricing to determine whether a visit fits in their budget. When they do, they are met with a price calendar on DisneyWorld.com showing significantly higher prices for the summer months:
For some people, it does not matter. Summer is the most convenient time for them to visit due to school breaks, so that’s when they go. This is the rationale for summer season being peak season in the first place. For decades, summer has been peak season in just about every tourist destination, including Walt Disney World, for that very reason.
For many visitors, the elevated prices in June and July are significant. Between hotels and park tickets, the surcharge for a summer vacation could be over $1,000 for a family of 5, and that’s enough to justify postponing a visit for many people. Even a 1-day summer visit could cost an extra $100 or so for a family.
If you’re a Florida resident, or even living within driving distance in the South, it’s pretty easy to delay your visit until the late summer or on a weekend during the fall if price is an issue. Even if you don’t live in the South, you may be considering an impulse-visit to Disney’s Hollywood Studios to experience Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance on an already-planned vacation to Florida.
That is, until you see the premium pricing. At which point, you might decide to wait until off-season, when prices are better. For as long as we can remember, this has been the case with rack rates on hotel rooms. However, seasonal ticket pricing is a relatively recent addition, rolling out for 1-day tickets only a few years ago, and for multi-day tickets last year. Redistribution of crowds was part of the intent of the pricing scheme, but I’d contend this is an overcorrection.
Although they represent a much smaller piece of the pie, Annual Passholder trends also could explain some of the shift in summer crowds at Walt Disney World. As Annual Passes have rapidly escalated in price, no doubt some people have dropped them entirely.
Others might instead move to a lower tier, particularly the Weekday Select and Silver passes, both of which are blocked out for almost the entire months of June and July. These blockouts coupled with the lack of festivals largely explains why Epcot feels like a ghost town in the summer.
Another thing that would cause guests to stay home, Floridians in particular, is the weather. It’s no news that summer is unbearably hot and humid in Central Florida.
However, the last couple summers have been especially brutal, and as more people avail themselves of online planning resources, tourists become more cognizant of just how hot and humid summers are in Florida.
Things were pretty bad last summer. Florida’s numbers haven’t been as bad as the heat wave in the Southwest, but the Orlando area saw highs consistently in the 90s, with “feels like” temperatures above 100º. In that kind of heat, you can bet that some Annual Passholders opt to skip their weekend day trip.
Stretches of poor weather are not something that impact tourism numbers, as tourists cannot really plan for it. They know the summer is hot and it rains during storm season, but not when a heat wave is going to occur. However, it’s a safe assumption that those tourists who are on vacation during a heat wave are spending more time at the hotel pool and less time in the parks.
Another explanation is that international visitation is down, particularly from Europe and the United Kingdom, and these foreign visitors would be most likely to come during the summer months. (Meanwhile, tourism from South America has actually rebounded in the last couple of years–but they’re visiting disproportionately in the winter months, which is summer in Brazil, Argentina, etc.)
Despite Florida greeting a record number visitors last year, which have been increasing by about 3-5% every year for the last several years, the number of international tourists has been dropping for the last few years. Two years ago, just under 11 million international tourists visited Florida, which was a 1% drop. This follows two consecutive years of 2% drops. (We don’t have final numbers for last year, but tentative results show overseas tourism to Florida is down another ~3%.)
More schools shifting to year-round calendars with longer breaks throughout the year is another explanation, but this is not a sudden occurrence that began in the last few years. School calendars have been trending this way for a decade or more.
Then there’s the common explanation cited by commenters on this blog whenever attendance gets busier: we “let the secret out!” and “everyone started going during ____ week because of you!” Except in this case, less people are attending, and the “secret” would be that it’s unbearably hot and humid during the summer in Florida (shhh…don’t tell anyone).
While there are a lot of Disney blogs (not just this one) offering trip planning advice that likely includes recommendations as to when to visit, the vast majority of Walt Disney World visitors either do not or cannot follow this advice. It’d sure be neat if everyone followed our advice, but the practical reality is that most visitors to Walt Disney World do very little research and do not have the time to pore over Disney blogs for hours. On the plus side, a lack of critical mass is why a lot of tips you’ll find on Disney blogs work in the first place.
There are likely other variables I’m overlooking that could help explain why summer attendance has been down the last two years. Epcot’s growing ‘festival seasons’ have probably drawn guests to every month of the year except June through August. Gas prices might play a role. However, my bet is that the noticeable decrease is caused by the confluence of higher seasonal pricing, decline in international tourism, and pre-Star Wars slump. Other factors might be at play, and in aggregate may have a noticeable impact, but I think those variables would be something visitors wouldn’t notice if it weren’t for the changes in ticket pricing, international visitation trends, and the weather.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why summer crowds at Walt Disney World have been noticeably below-average the last two years? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busy–or busier–than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
Although we live in Texas, I consider us to be a seasoned WDW family and do a full week about every 18 months. We have been all times of year but noticed our last trip to be very crowded despite the research that indicated it should’ve been a very light week (Jan 17-23). I think there really isn’t a “low season” anymore unlike 20 years ago when Feb was a ghost town. This next trip will be this coming summer and praying your blog post is true!
So I know I can’t hold you to any specific dates, but we really like to go to WDW during the months that the parks are open the latest. We are currently booked for August 13th -20th.
Would earlier in August or even sometime in July be a better bet?
So oddly enough, something I’ve noticed is that when we have gone in October it’s been more and more and more crowded. We used to go for Halloween and the week after and it was dead that first week of November, but last time we were there it was actually very crowded. We just got back from a trip in early August, when it’s supposed to be hell, and it was less full than it was last Halloween! I will say that I think people have heard from friends that you shouldn’t go in the summer and so they are going during fall and spring breaks instead, or even taking kids out of school for that “once in a lifetime” vacation. Also, as a side note to the Floridians being all high and mighty, from one fellow Floridian to another, you’re gonna be hot all summer, you LIVE in Florida. I think a day at the park being hot is a million time better than a day inside in AC doing non-Disney stuff.
Being from England I can understand the Brexit theory, yet, working in the airline industry I can tell you that Brits aren’t postponing holidays and are still happily booking holidays. Mainly because Brexit actually hasn’t made much of a difference as of yet, and the pound is going up in value again. I think one reason why crowds might be lower is due to the fact that kids and generations are changing more and more, and kids are growing up too fast these days and not enjoying Disney like previous generations. I’m really hoping that summer is a lighter period than it used to be as I am going on holiday there in June! I’m loving this site. It’s extremely informative!
We’ve been averaging around 2 trips a year for the past several years, trying out different seasons. I do notice our April trips to coincide with the hugest wave of UK visitors. I might be prone to exaggeration, but mid-April feels like 30% of guests just swam across the pond 😀
My husband and I are both teachers, and our three kids are in school. We have awesome vacation time, but it’s written in stone and there’s no flexibility. Since we drive from Canada, coming during our Christmas or March Break doesn’t allow us enough time (and the crowds are prohibitive). So, it’s summer for our visits or not at all. People implying that we’re so stupid to visit in the summer should maybe consider that we have our reasons. BTW, as Canadians, we’re pretty ready for intense weather. We figure it out and roll with it. It’s really really hot. I get it. But it’s no reason to keep me at home 🙂 We visited in August 2016 and we had very low crowds. We’re going back this August and I can’t wait.
Having lived in both, dealing with extreme cold and extreme heat with humidity aren’t at all comparable. I’m not trying to be contrary but I don’t want someone to read that and not have a good sense of just how bad the heat/humidity is in the summer through August. The amount of people who pass out from heat stroke in the summer there was enormous when I worked at MK. It might’ve skewed slightly more toward people from other climates but it would even happen to locals. Extreme heat and humidity combined is its own animal.
We did Disney in October 2013 was very busy and weather was hot / humid , we returned June 2017 and had less crowds in my opinion and the weather was raining a lot , we got rained out of the water parks four times with weather warnings from the lifeguards etc . I am from Scotland and wonder if someone could explain what the year round calendar is ? I am more or less shackled to school hols give a day or two now that my son Is older and will be having exams starting soon . As a single parent I can only go when the prices are down so when the kids were slightly younger I would take them out for the two weeks from school , luckily my kids have good health so have never had a day off school so even though my request to have the two weeks authorised was declined (it went down as unauthorised leave ) the secretary said because the kids are always at school no one will blink , the unauthorised leave is to monitor child abuse and so on and not so much a holiday away, however this is in Scotland and I know other parts of the uk you do get fined for doing this , seriously it can be a difference of £1k + in price and if you get fined £100 I guess it would be worth it . I plan to go next year and will most likely book when free dine opens in the next few months
I really appreciate the information you have provided. As a mom of children in schools that have NOT joined the year round calendar trend, I am glad that those who can take advantage of better weather are doing so. I resent the tone some have taken in their comments that would imply we are all a bunch of dummies for coming in the summer months….no, more likely we are a bunch of parents shackled to a school calendar. Living in the Houston, Texas area prepares us for the heat, at least! I dream of the day our schools switch calendar strategies; until then I am thankful for the information you share to help me make the best plans possible!
I’m planning on visiting in August this year. And I know it’s supposedly the worst month to visit, but after my October trip last year, I’m sure I can deal. I picked the most humid and crowded week of the year to visit. (October 6-11 – Josh at EasyWDW did a Rope Drop at Magic Kingdom post the Saturday I was there if you’re interested in how bad it was.) While the crowds and heat were tough, that trip made it clear to me that what I hated more was planning around MNSSHP and battling F&W crowds. I’d like to enjoy WDW on its own without all the special events, now that I’ve experienced them. August seems like a good time to do that. With Rope Drop touring and FastPass+, combined with late lunch reservations to beat the heat and long lines, I’m hopeful it goes well. I hope the low-crowd summer trend continues this year. It will be interesting to see if it does. Can’t be worse than it was in October.
We also visited that same week last October and it was horrible. Crowds were at peak levels. Ive never seen MNSSHP so crowded. And yes it was hot. We are also booking for the last week of August. While I know it will be horribly hot, I can’t deal with crowds.
I learned the hard way to avoid Columbus Day week. Horrible crowds.
We have travelled to Disney many times from the UK in recent years. The weak pound has made a family holiday significantly more expensive. If you consider that air fares for a family of four can cost £4000 (and that’s in economy) in peak season, most Brits visit for two weeks to justify travel costs. Most people book packages including flights, accommodation and car hire. I can testify to how much more expensive everything seems since the pound weakened. We visited in February and noticed such a difference. We are used to getting at least $1.50 for £1 and a few years ago the exchange rate was closer to $1.90 for £1. Obviously this has reflected in package and ticket prices too. We love Disney but I’m not sure when we’ll be visiting next. I think your assessment is spot on.
As a teacher and lover of all things Disney, I have noticed that my students and coworkers go to the beach in Spring and Summer but go to Walt Disney World in the fall. It’s been a trend since most of the Midwest has gone to year-round or transition school calendars. The 1or 2 week break during the fall has been a game changer for vacations!
Interesting. I have been observing the same kind of trend at Disneyland and California Adventure. Makes it rather nice.
I’ve lived in Florida for over 30 years, about an hour and a half west of The Mouse, and you couldn’t pay me to go to Disney in the summer LOL. I can’t help but laugh at all the people who pay thousands of dollars to come suffer in our summer heat and humidity.
The only time this Floridian goes to Disney is in December. The weather is good, and the parks, particularly Magic Kingdom, are their most beautiful. To me, going at any other time, save for early spring, is a waste of money.
To those that can’t just drive over for a day, If you time your trip right, you can come at the tail end of Mickeys Not So Scary Halloween Party, and bridge your trip with Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party, and Food and Wine Festival at Epcot, and then you get the most Disney for your dollars. Alternatively, Flower and Garden Festival at Epcot in the spring is lovely as well.
Here’s a Pro Tip about Florida:
April Showers Don’t Bring May Flowers. The flowers bloom in April and the storms come in May. It’s already disgustingly hot once May rolls around, and it doesn’t let up till the end of October.
Love the tip at the end ! Coming from Scotland in Florida summer we are just glad of some heat as we know it’s the only two weeks we will be getting that year !
Tom,
Having just moved 10 minutes from Disney property after years of visiting for a week at a time, I hope you’ll continue to tell everyone how unbearably hot it is down here in the summer. We’re really enjoying the low crowds and the empty parks right after the afternoon thunderstorms. It is paradise!
#thatFloridalife
Rob
I’m headed to WDW next week with my wife. I’m expecting unbearable heat and crowds (being the 4th of July holiday week). I would normally have chosen a different time, but we are on a cruise out Miami the next week and decided to tack on WDW. Looking forward to it, and if the crowds are less than expected, all the better. Not too optimistic about the weather though!!
How did it go? I am going with my Family the week of the 4th this year. Pretty nervous about crowds and weather. i live in Texas and it has been very hot here this week, but I have spent a lot of time outdoors. (95 to 100 degrees) I think i can handle the heat, but I am unsure of the crowds…
I went the week of the 4th and loved it! The heat and crowds were a non issue.
Reading this blog post makes me feel like you have somehow gotten inside my head and observed and heard the exact same things I have since 2015. As a Florida Annual Passholder, I readily admit you are spot on about everything in this post. If you had talked to as many WDW guest as we have recently, you would know that your theories are in fact, not theories at all. But on the ground realities. I could write a small novel about what you have said in this blog post. But I would rather ask you a question. With all the excellent blogs (including yours), about WDW, what is your theory or guess as to why so many first time visitors never use the information available to them at their finger tips?
I would guess that the reason more first timers do not use all of these amazing resources is most likely due to sheer information overload. That was the case for me. It wasn’t until after our third trip to Disneyland that I started to feel comfortable and NOT overwhelmed doing research. Now we go several times a year and I have it dailed in, but initially I just stumbled my way through it picking up tips and tricks by trial and error.
Add to it that (gasp) some adults just don’t end up falling in love with vacationing in Disney. They view it as a parental obligation vs the amazing experience that those of us who love Disney view it. Those people are not my people, but sadly they do exist. Lol 🙂
I’m a researcher at heart. Before our first trip, I used this blog/app/and more to plan on vacation. My husband didn’t buy into it. He said they had been to WDW plenty of times when he was a kid and no one needed a touring plan to ride and eat. I let him have day one (Epcot) morning to test his method and then we switched in the afternoon to my touring plans method. We barely did anything with his method (didn’t arrive for rope drop). When we came back after lunch and a nap (everyone was cranky when we left at 12:30), we packed more into the remaining 4 hours than he expected to do all day. He was hooked. I planned the vacation so intensely because I wasn’t going to spend that much money on a trip and spend the whole time waiting in line. After switching to the planned method, we didn’t wait longer than 20min for anything the rest of the trip. My husband said it was amazing!
So, as someone who plans Disney Vacations as a side hustle (basically got tired of doing my friend’s vacations for free lol) I can tell you that H.Smith is totally right, people do look and see these blogs, bu they are super overwhelmed. I seriously have two first time guests: 1. This is our first and only time going, please help me make it magical without having to do too much homework. (over 50% come back, just saying lol) 2. I’m so overwhelmed, I read over a dozen blogs and all had different advice, I’m scared I can’t go to Disney World because it’s too hard… HELP ME!! I do get the people who have been a million times and don’t want to bother with waking up early for ADRs or FastPasses, but those people are rare, and usually just repeat clients who initially fell into one of the two buckets above. Just my two cents on your question.
I wonder if two years is really enough to establish a trend? Last year had a couple of flukes (zika and alligators) and it could be that a random fluctuation in attendance happens to have come the next year, making it look like a new normal.
But I’ll be watching with interest in coming years to find out. I’ve been fond of visiting WDW in early January in order to enjoy very low crowds while also wearing an “It’s my birthday” button but the marathon’s already changing that. If a change in crowd patterns holds I may have to start rethinking my own pattern.
I’m a little worried about crowds during our trip beginning August 20th. This is the first week where the one day tickets drop down to “value” so I’m worried people who put off visiting during the higher priced times will all flood to this week.
How was it?
Hi Tom,
I believe in your opinion. Brazil used to be the #3 and sometimes #2 in number of people, but right we are living a very confusing time. The value of the dollar is really high and we are not so sure that our president will be in charge by the end of the year, so I believe maybe 15 to 20% less brazilians this summer.
That would probably affect as well the number of international college students.
Definitely a less busy summer at Disney.
I don’t know if you could get the data but it would be interesting to see if Disney always sees a slump in attendance during election years as those times always create uncertainty and make people less willing to pull the trigger on larger purchases. (no matter who is running)
Interestingly, this is something I wrote about with regard to 2017 discounts, and a prediction more would occur because of it. However, the normal election year cycle trend did *not* occur this time around. Consumer confidence and markets have continued to climb.
Inserting “Scratches Head” emoji. lol, I can understand after the election with him being a businessman but surprised that pre election people were not holding their pocketbooks like they were holding their breath.
We always go in September or October because of the summer heat in Florida. Early enough in the school year that missing a week is easily made up when we get back. Still warm enough to swim but not so miserably hot. Biggest part of that decision is going to Mickeys Halloween Party. We love it!