Worst Week of Winter is Coming at Disney World
One of the busiest weeks of 2023 will soon arrive at Walt Disney World, to the surprise of many tourists who expect winter to be off-season at Walt Disney World. This post covers dates to avoid, why it’ll be so busy, and what to do to beat the long lines and crowds if you’re already planning a visit during this timeframe.
Let’s start with the good news. It is currently off-season at Walt Disney World! This is a very recent development and quite the contrast to our last update, Colossal Christmas Crowds Cap Off Walt Disney World’s Busiest Year Ever! Now that the holiday break is over, school is back in session, and the Walt Disney World Marathon is over, wait times have plummeted across the board.
The bad news is that longtime fans expecting attendance levels during mid-January or February on par with a decade ago (or even 5 years ago) will still be sorely disappointed. In last year’s Winter Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World, we explain how January and February crowds have grown since ~2017, and what’s the new normal for this time of year. With that said, if your frame of reference is last year instead of several years ago, you might actually be pleasantly surprised…
In the span of two weeks, wait times have essentially been cut in half. The peak week of the holiday season saw average wait times of 61 minutes, and the following week only dropped to 54 minutes. Keep in mind that these are averages, taking into account unpopular and perpetual no-wait rides. Meaning that dozens of headliners had triple-digit wait times
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance peaked at 320 minutes and Avatar Flight of Passage hit 240 minutes–to our knowledge, those were the highest highs. We saw several other rides at or above 180 minutes, which happened with regularity those two weeks.
It’s also notable that the first week of January was so busy. That timeframe has been getting busier and busier due to Osceola and Orange County schools being out of session (and a growing number of locals), plus the lifting of Annual Pass blockouts, plus Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend in the last 4 years or so. Nevertheless, this is the busiest that week has ever been.
With that said, this isn’t a typical backward-looking crowd report. Rather, we want to bring your attention to an upcoming week that will be really busy–probably in the top 5 worst weeks of the entire year, and definitely in the top 10. Absent a big surprise, it will be the most crowded window of the first quarter of 2023.
That timeframe is approximately February 17 to February 26, 2023. This particular week plus the weekends around it will be bad due to Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras once again coinciding. This happens from time to time, and whenever it does, those weeks are particularly bad.
Compounding those crowds, there’s the 2023 Disney Princess Half Marathon Weekend from February 23 to 26. This is the 15th Anniversary of that popular runDisney event, and it long ago sold out. In essence, this means there are two popular long weekends for Walt Disney World visitors plus the week of Mardi Gras, all on top of one another.
To make matters worse, discounts are not blocked out for those travel dates. This isn’t really such a big deal for room discounts, as there’s only so much hotel inventory on-site at Walt Disney World. Whether special offers induce more Florida vacations or simply shift the stays between off-site and on-site hotels is debatable. (My guess is that it does move the needle a bit, but that on-site hotel inventory does not have as significant of an impact on crowds as many fans believe.)
The bigger impact is likely to result from the 2023 Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Walt Disney World. Why this is blocked out for several weeks in March and April but not that timeframe is beyond me–probably a matter of precedent or simple oversight. Nevertheless, that ticket deal will also have an impact–especially during the final dates of the 2023 EPCOT Festival of the Arts, which is popular with locals.
Speaking of which, that event’s finale will likewise contribute to crowds even outside of the ticket deal. Floridians and even some non-local fans will turn out for the conclusion of the increasingly popular EPCOT Festival of the Arts and the ‘grand finale’ of the Disney on Broadway concert series (among other things).
Other wildcards will be ride refurbishments. We already know that Splash Mountain closes permanently on January 23 and that TRON Lightcycle Run won’t be open until April 2023. Over at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster goes down during this window and it’s also possible that Tower of Terror will still be at half-capacity. Hopefully more isn’t added to the 2023 Walt Disney World Refurbishment Calendar for the second half of February.
A similar confluence of circumstances occurred just a couple of years ago at Walt Disney World. Crowds started swelling a couple of days in advance of the Presidents’ Day (etc.) long weekend and got really heavy during Mardi Gras week. On our highly scientific scale of LSU and Saints shirts spotted in the parks, basically the entire state of Louisiana visited Walt Disney World that week.
The final weekend of Mardi Gras was particularly busy. All four Walt Disney World theme parks hit capacity for all ticket types and Walt Disney World extended weekend park hours at the very last minute. That came after the company extended hours several times, and the total hours ended up being about 3 hours per day longer than what was then normal.
As it turned out, the week of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras was one of the busiest weeks of the year at Walt Disney World. (Ditto Universal Orlando.) It was especially bad for Magic Kingdom where wait times were on par with the week leading up to New Year’s Eve, and higher than the week leading up to Christmas. It’s a similar story when looking back at prior years when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided.
The key difference the last time this occurred is that park attendance was still being heavily restricted, with Walt Disney World still throttling Park Pass reservations and capping capacity far below normal. That was also amidst what was otherwise a very slow winter, which was largely due to the first big winter spike in COVID cases spooking would-be travelers. It still ended up being one of the busiest weeks of that entire year.
Last year, the two holidays did not overlap. Despite that, the week of Presidents’ Day was still one of the worst weeks of the year–right up there with the peak of Spring Break, and Thanksgiving. It was surpassed by Christmas and New Year’s Eve by a pretty wide margin, but was still up there, with far higher wait times than the low to moderate weeks before it in January and February.
We’ve been discussing this week for a while in wait time reports and this week is a “red flag” in our updated 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars. Again, we’ve predicted it will be the busiest week of the first quarter of the year, and probably one of the worst 5 weeks of the entire year at Walt Disney World.
Nevertheless, we’re pointing it out and drawing more direct attention to how bad February 17 to February 26, 2023 will be because we’ve found that even with our warnings in the past, these crowds have caught Walt Disney World visitors by surprise.
You know what they say? “Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice… strike three.” ~Michael Scott
It’s understandable that the spike in crowds continues to surprise Walt Disney World fans despite there being clear precedent for the Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras spike. This is likely in part due to reports of low crowd levels for the month or so beforehand lull people into a false sense of security and optimism that off-season trends will continue.
If you’re seeing rock-bottom wait times one week, you probably don’t expect those to (essentially) double overnight. And yet, we’ve seen exactly that happen before. It’ll probably come close to occurring again when comparing wait times from the first half of February 2023 to the second half.
Then there’s the fact that many planners are not aware that Presidents’ Day is a long weekend that’s popular for getaways to Walt Disney World. Not many people have that day off work, so it probably doesn’t register as a holiday that would meaningfully impact attendance. Presidents’ Day is not exactly like Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s Eve.
It’s one of those lower profile holidays that doesn’t attract a lot of attention, but nevertheless has an outsized impact on crowds at Walt Disney World. It’s a lot like Veterans Day in November.
The degree to which a couple of states or a region having a school break can impact Walt Disney World crowd levels is actually pretty significant. If you live in other areas of the United States, you may not be aware that Mardi Gras is a “big deal” and popular travel period for the Southeast.
It’s also a popular winter break for some Northeast school districts. If you don’t live in those locations, it’s an understandable blind spot. The same thing happens with Jersey Week, which impacts crowd levels at Walt Disney World. People who live in those locations generally know they’re popular break times.
However, if you’re a Midwesterner debating pulling your kids out of school to escape the cold, you might be oblivious to that–there’s no obvious or intuitive reason the first half of February 2023 will be so much better than the second half!
I speak from some degree of experience here. I’m a native Michigander and my parents used to pull me out of school for a temporary reprieve from the snow and subzero temperatures around this time of year, simply targeting dates to visit Florida based on our weather at home.
Moreover, I was also clueless about the impact Mardi Gras had on crowds at Walt Disney World until experiencing the week in the parks and noticing a very visible presence of LSU and Saints shirts (no such love for the poor Pelicans). That’s not a joke–you’ll notice the same if you visit that week!
Another reason you may not expect February 17 to February 26, 2023 to be bad is because none of those dates are yellow or grey on the Disney Park Pass calendar (yet). In fact, the entirety of 2023 is currently green, which will also lull some planners into a false sense of security.
While this was a good early indicator of heavy attendance post-reopening, the reservations calendars have been largely rendered obsolete more recently. Walt Disney World still uses them to redistribute crowds, pushing people towards Animal Kingdom and EPCOT, but they often do not provide advance warning of heavy crowds. Some dates still go grey, but that often doesn’t occur until the last minute–and some very busy days have maintained availability.
If you’re a Midwesterner (or anyone for that matter–but a special shoutout to my fellow Michiganders!) who is currently freaking out because you picked February 17 to February 26, 2023 (or dates within that window) to visit Walt Disney World: don’t. Sure, these dates will be busy. But it’s also an excellent time of year in the park with comfortable weather (certainly better than what you’ll have at home!)
On top of that, following a good itinerary and utilizing smart strategy is more important than choosing the “right” dates. And as we’ve seen on many occasions in the past, even those who choose dates that should be good have had that undermined by surprising crowds, disruptive weather, etc.
To that end, it’s entirely possible to beat bad crowds by utilizing Genie+ and Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, etc. We cover the best & worst approach for each park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re only going to read one planning post, make it that. There are great ways to beat the crowds–even on busy days–without buying Genie+ or Individual Lightning Lanes.
By simply arriving early or staying late, you can beat the worst of the midday crowds. (Of course, that’s “simple” in theory but more difficult in practice, especially if you have small children. That’s a big reason why wait times are lower first thing in the morning and later in the evenings.) Beyond that, be sure to also check out our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of attack, including options with and without Genie+ and Lightning Lanes.
Speaking of which, we have a ~4,500 word Guide to Genie+ at Walt Disney World & Lightning Lane FAQ for those who want to thoroughly master paid FastPass. Weeks like this, it’s definitely a good option for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT.
Finally, I’ll draw specific attention to the 2023 After Hours at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. There are only two of these scheduled in February 2023, but oddly enough, one falls dead-center in the window of the worst winter crowds and the other is just before it starts. At present, neither of these dates are sold out (that is likely to change very soon).
While we are critical of “overbuying” upcharge offerings due to FOMO and so forth, we actually love After Hours at DHS. It’s definitely a splurge, but it’s one that’s actually worth the money. It adds a VIP vibe to the visit, and at a fraction of the price of hiring a tour guide. This will be doubly or triply true in February 2023 when After Hours is even more beneficial as contrasted with a normal day in Disney’s Hollywood Studios. (I’m honestly surprised that Walt Disney World scheduled After Hours that week–they normally don’t do these events when attendance projections are high.)
For those who are thinking about a visit to Walt Disney World this winter that’s outside the second half of February 2023, we’d recommend consulting our February 2023 Crowd Calendar and March 2023 Crowd Calendar for specific best and worst dates. In particular, avoid Osceola and Orange County K-12 Spring Breaks. Same goes for our April 2023 Crowd Calendar, although the spike there should be more obvious (Easter).
The good news when it comes to the Spring Break season is that Florida’s breaks largely occur earlier this year than those school districts that have Easter week off. This should spread out crowds, rather than the comparative consolidation of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras. (This is not to say Spring Break 2023 will be uncrowded. It will not. Just that the entirety of that busy season isn’t being condensed into a single week, as is the case here.)
Ultimately, we’ve been warning for over a year that February 17 to 26, 2023 will be bad at Walt Disney World. Although this understandably catches vacation planners by surprise, this is not a bold prediction–it’s one backed by at least a decade of precedent.
The open question is just how bad it’ll end up being. For whatever reason, runDisney is opting to hold the Princess Half Marathon that weekend. That’s also not unprecedented, but it’s nevertheless a perplexing decision given the growing crowds. There’s also the fact that Walt Disney World has not blocked out discounts for those dates, which is also perplexing but entirely precedented. All of this could mean that Disney’s internal attendance forecasts aren’t showing any cause for concern…or it could be a complete oversight.
We suspect that it’s the latter; it wouldn’t be the first (2nd, 3rd…33rd, 45th, etc.) time that Walt Disney World has whiffed on crowd projections and scheduling. Suffice to say, we recommend planning your winter “off-season” visits to Walt Disney World accordingly to avoid these “surprise” peak season attendance. If it’s too late for that, do what you can to position yourself to beat the potential crowds!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World during when Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day coincided in the past? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? What’s your expectation for February 17-26, 2023? If you’ve visited in the weeks before/after Mardi Gras, did you notice a big difference in crowd levels? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our crowd report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Expect more love for the Pelicans this year. The Princess Half Marathon helps explains the dearth of reservations. The good news for anyone going is that as of today, all park reservations (I really hate that extra hoop to leap through) are still available. Expect to see Saints, LSU and more Pelicans gear, plus loads of purple, green and gold.
Hello ,
I’m going second week of August. Staying off site. Do you know when they announce the after hour events ? And when can you book dining etc ?
Thanks
Disney really needs a 5th Park or a serious awesome expansion at Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios…. Something to suck up all the NORMAL crowds!!!
You’ll need to do another article about April/Easter crowds. There’s a combination of events that are going to make it packed. The opening of Tron on the 4th, Easter on the 9th, RunDisney event the 13th and MANY Northeast schools have their spring break the week of Easter this year. Throw in Flower & Garden too, yikes
It also UK school holidays and dates included in the Disney dining credit promotion. We will be there adding to the crowd. Oh well more the merrier, as they say
Ugh. We are teachers on the West Coast, and can rarely afford to go to DW (we use a Disney travel agent and pay for it on a payment plan) and this will be the first time ever going for my spouse, so super bummed to hear I picked the worst week We’ve had this vacation (16th-20th) booked for almost a year, complete with airfare and all transportation. Also all of our dining reservations etc. from the first day we could make them. . No backing out for us now, alas, but it is a little depressing, because we could have gone this week if I had realized. Oh well, will read the Genie+ and other articles and try to figure out a workable plan with Genie+ and the rest – thanks, seriously, for the heads up. I just wish my travel agent had warned us. 😉
Our Mardi Gras breaks are now a full week off of school, unless we have a horrible hurricane season. back in the 80s, 90s, 00s, it was only a 3 day break. as a frequent visitor and DVC member, we typically go to Disney during Mardi Gras break AS LONG AS ITS NOT PRESIDENT DAY WEEKEND! case in point, our BIG trip is next year because Mardi Gras is the week before President Day and in 2027, Mardi Gras is early February, so we will definitely take advantage of that. we never go in March because most school have their Spring breaks at that time and Mardi Gras can be as late as March 9th.
Should I be concerned with Super Bowl Monday? It’s close to that week. I’m hoping with the game being played in AZ, they will go to Disneyland.
I experienced a Michael Scott “….strike three” moment the week before President’s Day with family who swore up and down that it had always been the best time of year for them when crowds (second to end of August). I listened to them once before and discovered they were wrong about a time to visit. I discovered your blog and shared with them your advice for Feb and they were so passionate with their nay that I believed them over you. Never again. It was when the Cheer/Dance competition was there and also there was a large amount of South American tourists. So many people were staying “it’s never this crowded in February what is going on?” Your blog has always been super accurate to me, so I now consult and reference your blog when trip planning with them.
We got married at WDW 2.22.2022 last year, it was 95 degrees and the busiest crowds we saw all year. We traveled to Disney in Feb, June, Sept, and December, and the President’s Day crowds were the heaviest. I think it really is the confluence of all of those things hitting at once.
We made the trip for Presidents Day week in 2022, and it was incredibly busy, but still fun. If you are doing Presidents week 2023, make sure you get up for early entry!! You will get more attractions done in the first two hours than the whole rest of the day. As a fellow Michigander it’s worth it to brave the crowds for a little sunshine and warmth!
Thanks for giving us the heads-up about this a long long time ago! We started planning a two week WDW vacation for this February or February/March last winter. We originally planned for Feb 19 – March 4. After seeing your heads-up about it, we now arrive February 26 and stay until March 11.
Do you have a 2024 crowd calendar?….. we r dvc and can make reservations for next year in February
In my former life, I was a teacher, so we ALWAYS went this week (and going even further back, this was always the week I went with my school Marching Band). When we went in 2020 (literally right before the world shut down!), it was the most crowded I’ve ever seen the parks! After that we said we’ll never go when that week overlaps Mardi Gras again (which, surprise, being from the Northeast I had no idea was a thing that was celebrated!).
What should we expect for this weekend for Martin Luther King Day? We will be there tomorrow (Saturday) – Thursday. Concerned especially about Monday at Magic Kingdom.
I will be in Orlando for a conference that week, it ends on Thursday the 23rd. We will be going to MK on the 24th, just a one day pass – solely because I want to see MK before they take down all the 50th anniversary decor/end related shows etc. Having been at the parks in 2019 around the same time, I was stunned at how awful the crowds were. Tbh, I thought anyone who ran a half marathon would be exhausted and not go to the park that they had to pay to get into because it’s not included in the price of your race ticket…well wasn’t I proved wrong! Since we are only doing one park/one day it frees us from the “burden” of having to park hop and we can concentrate on enjoying MK from \rope drop til the end of the day.
Schools in the Buffalo, NY area always have that week off. My kids, as well as many, many other families use that week to head south during the snowy winters. We took a Disney cruise one year during that week and after dropping off our rental car at the port, the bus to the ship had five family groups on it. Four of them were from New York.
I think “it’s also a popular winter break for some Northeast school districts” understates the issue, as ALL public schools in the state of Massachusetts are closed that week every year. I know we don’t have as many people as Jersey, but the impact may be similar. Look for Patriots, Red Sox, and Bruins apparel when you’re in the parks. That said, I have gone to WDW during that week more than once and had a great time.
I’ll be there from the 16th though the 26th. I knew it was going to be busy, but those were the only dates that worked. So I’m guessing it will be busier than the last time when we went during that same time in 2020 right before the pandemic, but now I come armed with more knowledge on how to beat the crowds so I’m up to the challenge. Glad I decided to do MK on the 16th and will get to enjoy extended evening hours on 21st at MK (and at Epcot the night before). I probably won’t pay for the After Hours at HS on the 22nd. That’s just too many late nights in a row and I’m already shelling out a small fortune. We have an ADR for the Fantasmic Dining Package at HS on the 17th–what do you think the chances are that they go back to two showings of Fantasmic during that week?
Well After cancelling the last week of 2022 I’m now heavily leaning towards cancelling 2/19 to the 26th. It’s the only week my wife has off from school. Sounds like I’m married to a teenager but no she teaches. I thought having the DHS After Hours event would be the time to ride slinky etc. and avoid disappointment, heartache and sorrow. I also scheduled the Sci Fi lunch ticket for Fantasmic on another day and a diner package for the last showing of Disney on Broadway (which we saw last year and were blown away). We have some nice ADR’s and we enjoy walking around the Parks maybe even more than doing the rides BUT …. who likes crowds? Who can enjoy a walk in the park if the park is wall to wall and you can’t see the Park for the humans? I know you told me we should be fine BUT…
Can anyone help me answer the musical question…Should I go or should I stay?
If you’re married to a teacher, what better options do you really have?
Personally, I would not give up DHS After Hours (it’s great!) and those two dining packages. As you know, Festival of Arts is awesome and you’re already beating the crowds for several things by virtue of what you have booked.
To each their own, but I’d probably stick with it. Do Early Entry for EPCOT/DAK and Genie+ for MK and you should be fine.
You should go! We were there at Christmas this year, when it was super-busy, but had a great time. It never felt “get me a machete so I can hack my way through the crowds” crowded, the way any weekend in Times Square does to me! Tom’s advise is spot-on. We were able to ride everything we wanted to ride and slow down and enjoy just being there.