How Crowded Will Disney World Be After Reopening?
“How bad will crowds be when Walt Disney World’s parks reopen?” and “which months will be busiest when WDW reopens?” are two common reader questions right now. Many readers are understandably anxious about crowds when rebooking vacations, and we’ll attempt to answer here based on history and our expectations.
This is an ongoing series, coming in response to feedback and concerns raised in response to our When Will Walt Disney World Reopen? post. We’ve also tackled the question of Will Huge Discounts be Offered When WDW Reopens? and soon will address operational modifications. (We’ll also revisit the first question.)
A lot of this is speculative, dependent upon how the next couple of months play out and what the national mood is going forward. While we’re comfortable discussing generalized trends and possibilities, it would be incredibly premature to offer numerical crowd levels or an update to our 2020 Crowd Calendars for Walt Disney World. We’ll try to have one of those as soon as possible–if you want to be notified when that’s ready, sign up here for our FREE Disney newsletter here.
When it comes to Walt Disney World crowd predictions for the remainder of 2020 after the parks reopen (whenever that might happen), there are generally two schools of thought. The first is that most guests who have had their trips cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain, meaning several months worth of crowds will be crammed into what’s left of the year. This would mean a significant spike in attendance.
The second is that crowds will be significantly lower across the board due to surging unemployment, plummeting consumer confidence, economic anxiety, travel trepidation, and more. If you’ve read any of our past posts related to the topic, you already know we fall firmly in the second camp.
We’ll cover both theories here, discussing what each means in terms of how busy Walt Disney World will be. However, there are a ton of variables that will be at play and we don’t have a crystal ball–if we did, we’d probably use it for something cooler, like finding out who wins the 2021 World POG Federation Championship…
Before we delve into this discussion, let’s set the economic backdrop. Although people might visit for the “Disney Bubble” they don’t book vacations while in one. Real world circumstances have a significant impact on travel numbers–look no further than the attendance lulls following 9/11 and the Great Recession for conclusive proof of that.
The latest weekly jobs report showed 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment, for a two-week total of roughly 10 million jobless claims. This number is a record by a colossal margin, and is likely still an underestimate given that many states and individuals reported troubles with processing and filing unemployment claims, respectively.
Moreover, some companies have done everything they can to keep people employed, but simply will not be able to do so the longer this goes on. Walt Disney World and other Central Florida theme park operators are good examples of this. The Walt Disney Company has announced it’ll furlough employees on April 19, and it’s likely Universal and other businesses will follow suit–adding to those numbers.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis district has estimated that the United States could see as many as 47 million people lose their jobs when all is said and done. That would put the nation’s unemployment rate at 32%, a figure higher than what was seen during the Great Depression. Other estimates project lower and larger numbers, but the one constant is that they’re all unprecedented highs.
While those numbers are eye-popping, they only tell the beginning of the entire story. Several questions remain unanswered. How rapidly will recovery occur? Have we simply hit “pause” on all economic activity? To what degree will there be lasting damage? Will the American consumer bounce right back? How quickly will those jobs return?
Unfortunately, I’m not an economist or financial expert who simply operates a Walt Disney World blog as a side hustle. Nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. (Although even that sounds delightful right about now!) However, I do watch a lot of CNBC and read a ton of financial news, and one thing is clear to me: no one really knows.
Well-credentialed experts each appear confident in their own personal economic projections, but they contradict one another. Suffice to say, there’s no clear consensus. Unlike the weather forecast (which itself isn’t a hallmark of reliability), these experts are working with even less complete information. So much of the story remains to be written.
Economists have offered up no shortage of predictions for the “shape” of the economic recovery. Initially, a rapid V-shape rebound was favored. Now, more believe it could be an L, W, or U-shape recovery. Some think we’re looking at a “Nike Swoosh” shape (here’s a decent overview of the possibilities). We haven’t yet to hear of any “Hidden Mickey” shape bounce-backs, but there’s still time.
We’ve already spent a lot of time fixating on the current and potential future state of the economy, but the reason for that is simple: it’s the best proxy we have right now for future crowd levels at Walt Disney World. This is all totally unprecedented, so traditional crowd prediction methodology are pretty much out the window.
Consumer confidence is a great barometer for generalized attendance trends, and it already showed a significant drop last month (and that only surveyed sentiment through the 18th–before the parks even closed). It’s safe to assume the consumer confidence numbers for April and May will see an even sharper drop, which is significant because this is the timeframe that average Americans would typically be booking travel for September through December.
On social media, we’ve seen a lot of people worried that Walt Disney World crowds will be colossal in October. (That specific month has come up again and again.) This is based upon comments people have seen posted in Facebook groups, blog comments, and other Disney-centric social media. This fear has been exacerbated by long waits on the phone to book the Free Dining Summer Recovery Offer.
In its own way, this illustrates the problem with online echo chambers. If you’re surrounded by other diehard Disney fans on social media, of course you’re hearing from other people who are rebooking trips and eager to get back to the parks. You thus might assume that “everyone” is booking for the fall and it’s going to be packed.
We’d strongly caution against buying into this–it’s an extreme case of selection bias. High call volume is easy to explain away: there’s also a huge surge in cancellations and we don’t know what staffing numbers are like right now. This is all supported by the reality that only a minority of guests are even eligible for the promo.
Even assuming a number of best case scenarios about the speed and strength of our nation’s recovery from this–plus a lack of health concerns–it’s really difficult to see a massive spike by early fall. For one, September and October are “naturally” Florida’s off-season, a time when school is back in session, meaning less travel.
October has not been off-season the last several years, but that’s largely been due to a huge spike in conventions and other events. The year’s convention schedule has already been decimated, with many events already cancelled for fall. (We wouldn’t be surprised to see no youth events on the calendar for ESPN Wide World of Sports for the remainder of 2020.)
On average, Walt Disney World vacations are booked 5-6 months in advance. (Most people reading this almost certainly begin planning earlier. You’re reading a Disney blog–you’re not the average guest.) In order for those fall months to fill up, people would need to be booking trips right now.
With so much uncertainty in the air, it’s safe to say that this is not occurring on a widespread level. As this closure continues, the same will almost certainly hold true for November and December. At present, it’s difficult to envision the general public eagerly booking trips to a destination with a reputation for crowds and lines. There are simply too many unknowns and anxiety is high.
In our recent post about Walt Disney World Accepting Reservations for June 1, 2020 and Later, we posited that Disney had opened reservations for summer (and offered Free Dining Recovery Deal) to get more bookings and boost the occupancy numbers. Otherwise, it would not even be practicable to open the resorts this summer.
It’s absolutely true that Walt Disney World can work its “magic” to drive reservations. A general public Free Dining offer or even more aggressive discounts could help spike hotel occupancy to acceptable levels. Good deals can overcome a lot, including fears about congestion.
What’s largely out of Disney’s control is occupancy at off-site hotels. Walt Disney World is somewhat dependent upon Florida tourism, as a whole. While fans bemoan the construction of new on-site hotels and how they’ve exacerbated crowds, the reality is that most guests on any given day are still coming from off-site.
Even if Disney can somehow against all odds manage 90% on-site occupancy for the fall and winter, the actual crowd levels in the parks will be largely dependent upon what booking levels look like off-site. It’s safe to say that third party hotels will likewise offer deals to get back on their feet, but those don’t have the same impact of enticing people to visit Walt Disney World. Nevertheless, let’s say those hotels see a recovery and WDW offers a strong general public 4-day ticket deal to recover some off-site guests.
All of that is making a number of best case assumptions about consumer confidence, the economic recovery, and Walt Disney World’s ability to quickly and effectively deploy discounts to buoy resort occupancy.
If the average American has economic anxiety, unemployment remains above 10%, and/or consumer confidence does not rebound, fewer people will be booking trips. To us, the best case scenario looks like a 15% drop in domestic attendance–and that doesn’t even take into account international guests who may not even be able to travel to the United States.
Again, this is all the general public we’re discussing. Walt Disney World fans will no doubt disproportionately make sacrifices, jump on discounts, and do everything they can to return to their happy place. However, Disney fans are a (vocal) minority of all guests on any given day.
All of the above discussion reflects the second school of thought regarding Walt Disney World crowds after the parks reopen–the beliefs to which we subscribe. The other is that most guests who have had their Walt Disney World vacations cancelled will rebook later in the year for the months that remain.
The theory here is that Americans won’t sacrifice their 2020 vacations. If the parks are closed for ~2 months and reopen on June 1, those couple months worth of crowds will be redistributed for the remainder of the year. This is the best (or worst, depending upon your perspective) case scenario.
If Disney can simply spread the crowds that would’ve materialized during the closure over the rest of the year that could mean a 10-25% daily increase in crowds, depending upon how long the closure lasts. This is theoretically possible if you ignore real world reality, we guess. It’s also theoretically possible that Walt Disney World will begin accepting Monopoly money and we’ll each be named Princess or Prince of Magic Kingdom for the day.
However, we will concede that we don’t know how this will end up playing out. This is totally unprecedented in a number of ways, and it seems like every single day has included a new and usually unpleasant surprise. It’s virtually impossible to predict how the nation will look and feel several weeks from now, let alone several months.
We feel our thinking represents a sober view of how the general public’s current attitude towards booking vacations and the variables that will impact that in the coming months. While it’s likely Central Florida locals eager to get out of the house will pack the parks (to the degree that’s even possible) in the first few weeks after reopening, we’d expect that to be a temporary surge. After that, our preliminary expectation (read: total shot in the dark guess) is that you can take normal crowd calendars and drop those numbers by about 50%. Take October’s numbers and drop them even further than that. This doesn’t even take into account crowd control measures and operational modifications Walt Disney World might make, but that’s another topic for another day…
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will rise or fall once the parks reopen? Are you anticipating colossal crowds this fall and holiday season, or the lowest levels since the Great Recession or 9/11? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until the economy recovers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I heard that Disney is not going to have parades, fireworks, and shows. Several rides not operating as well. If that’s the case, I think they are messing up and it will sour a huge number of us who love Disney. Don’t lower the standards.
Jamie, are you serious? What you call ‘lowering their standards’, the rest of us call ‘following guidelines’. Disney must make changes for the safety of you and your family and their cast members. The “huge number of you” who love Disney should thank them for trying to keep you safe. If it sours you, all I can say is, better to be sour and alive than the alternative. A virus that kills. No vaccine. No cure. Think about that.
I am not even sure how that would work. That would simply make the areas open even more congested. That strategy wouldn’t do anything to keep people from congregating or touching stuff. What they ought to do is get rid of bag checks.
We’re going to DIsney August 12-19. I have to make my final payment in July so I’m waiting to see what’s happening. I didn’t make plane reservations so we’re going to drive instead I’m a little nervous about going on a plane with all the germs. I’m wondering when Disney opens will they have all their people back and have all their rides open. Do you think August would be ok? I’m a little nervous,
Hi Jo!
I can appreciate your being a little [nervous!]. This is not the Apocalypse…..the world (and I don’t mean WDW) isn’t at an end! Just think of that wonderful song “ZipaDeeDooDah” from Walt Disney’s classic film SONG OF THE SOUTH. Best case scenario: The Walt Disney Company finally releases SONG OF THE SOUTH on 4K/Blue-Ray Disc as an added ‘bonus & incentive’ to visit your favorite Disney Park!
I hope that makes you ‘feel better’.
Best,
William
Thanks for being positive and happy belated birthday from another senior Disney world fan.
We went to Disneyland right before the outbreak. I would be so sad if I had to cancel. I’m sorry. I feel your worry. We have summer plans (not Disney) as well. Honestly, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I believe the country could be in lockdown for 18 months. I hate it so much but that’s the reality. It will take decade’s to recover economically.
Thank you for continuing to write and post. Your columns are always interesting, informative, humorous … When I read the comments and replies I am fascinated by the many MANY opinions, ideas and viewpoints. It’s like reading a cross-section of the human condition- as seen through Disney colored glasses.
Your columns and the comments are a treasured highlight in my sometimes humdrum Stay at Home days!
Hi Tom
Thanks for all the great information during this difficult time.
I was wondering, if the parked reopen in the summer, do you anticipate any reduced rides, dining, character meets during the WDW 2020 MVMCP? We’ve booked for November to attend the party and, I know this is unprecedented and you’d be speculating, but I’d love your insight into what the parks will be like in November .
Thanks!
We booked a trip for early December. We booked DVC points and just added an extra day to the beginning before the rest of our group arrives. I’ve noticed a lot of DVC reservations are still unavailable from fall through Christmas. For us, barring another surge of this virus we will still make the trip. We, fortunately, along with our fellow travelers have not been affected by layoffs or furloughs so out financial situation hasn’t changed (we’ll except for investments which is a whole other story). I Personally think the crowds will be lower but for Disney as a whole, I hope they can bounce back in a fairly quick order. I just don’t think this year many families will be able to justify the expense. I also wonder if families will be less inclined to pull kids out of school for a week after missing months of school this year. Just my 2 cents.
We have a toddler and a baby on the way, and family in central Florida that we’d love to see as well. If it weren’t for the kids, I’d like to try to plan a fall trip: my guess is crowds and prices may be lower than they’ve been in years. But I also want to keep my family and my community as healthy as possible, and given everything, I think I’d need a lot more reassuring data about contagiousness and herd immunity or a vaccine before booking a trip back to Disney (or even going to a large sporting event or concert).
The Parks are closed indefinitely and we must see what happens with the virus in the US as well as abroad. Think about it. The borders are closed. People are dying, loosing their jobs, and the future is uncertain.
There will more than likely be social distancing laws. The Parks will have to rehire and hire. They’re going to begin furlough process on 19 April. That speaks volumes. Even if the Parks reopen in America the traffic will be much slower for a while. Even though Disney has money they are bleeding money. Their movies, parks, merchandise, resorts,and cruise ships are out of commission. Even Disney is taking a Beating. Chances are they will follow every preventive measure issued by the Federal government and the state.
There is no vaccination yet. This is a Global Pandemic and people have lost jobs and are not allowed to travel. In some cases, no flights from hot spots, especially to other hot spots. Social Distancing isn’t going away and we may see another wave in the fall. You ask such a question?
Hi Elsa!
Sweetheart…..darling…..young lady…..stop it with all that ‘negativity’.
I just ‘turned’ 72 on April 2nd! And I can still vividly recall my parents in 1951 taking me to see the original theatrical release of Walt Disney’s all animated Technicolor feature film ALICE IN WONDERLAND!
So I’ll take this opportunity to wish you a ‘Very Merry Un-birthday’ to you and to me!!!
All the best,
William
We have our first Disneyland trip booked for the week of June 14. What’s your thoughts on canceling or waiting it out and see what happens? Everything is booked and paid for, flight and all but I’m hesitant wondering how fast they can be back to normal even IF they do reopen on June 1st.
If you’re talking about Disneyland (California), I wouldn’t be as apprehensive.
Whenever Disneyland does open (whether it be in June or later), I’d expect everything to open at once–maybe with shorter hours. Very different than Walt Disney World, both in scale and in terms of demand. (Should be tons of locals ready to visit DLR.)
This seems true – at least the demand point – hotel prices in September have soared! Any further thoughts on how bad it’ll be at Disneyland?
While it’s just my anecdotal experience, as a travel agent specializing in Disney, over 70% of my Mar – May clients rebooked for Sept – Dec 2020. Who knows if these trips will happen either (because of health or economic reasons), but I’m definitely seeing a huge uptick now for Fall. Interestingly, not one rebooked with the Summer offer – it either felt “too soon” or they didn’t want to deal with Summer weather. The others want to book for the current year, but want to see how it’ll play out first. I think confidence is still high and it’ll be interesting to see how sentiment towards Fall changes as we get closer to it and have more info on all fronts….!
That’s interesting–thanks for sharing your experience thus far!
We Disney fanatics will book as soon as we can, and thus we’ll help to sustain what we love and enjoy lower crowds than usual in return. It‘s a small silver lining compared to today’s dark clouds, but finding silver linings is how human beings survive the storms..
Hi Tom, I originally was thinking the same, about lower crowds, until I rebooked for September and already can’t get the dining reservations I wanted. I was able to get everything I wanted for my original trip in May. What are your thoughts on that? I trust your opinion.
Thanks!
There are times during Free Dining “season” when the parks are not particularly busy but hotel and dining availability is low. Resort, dining, and FastPass+ availability can be useful sometimes, but is often not a good predictor of crowds.
Greetings:
My ‘educated guess’ is that all of the ‘Disney Parks’ will be reasonably well attended when they ‘reopen’. The only substantial change will be the required wearing of ‘face masks’ with your favorite ‘Disney characters’
printed on them. All the best DISNEY FANS!
Blessings…..William (Bill) Johnson!!!
I’m booked for nov to dec…I hope it opens..and I hope with a package deal… also I have magic bands ordered before the whole ordeal ..I was pretty bummed bc they were the ones we wanted. And now there all canceled, dont kno y bc i orderd b4 hand and they said they were shipped.. but , guess not..finally got something the whole family loved.. I feel bad for everyone’s going threw this.. but I hope we all can go soon… hope everyone’s well and safe..!!!
The economy is one thing, staying healthy and alive is a totally different thing, and I’d wager a bet the most important thing in everyone’s mind right now. No one knows how the economy is going to look when all is said and done. It’s already in terrible shape, worse than the Great Depression. And so I think vacations involving airfare and hotels will probably be at the bottom of the list of things to do after this is over. I’m not even sure this will ever be completely over. Flattening the curve doesn’t mean the virus is gone.
The people you’ll see coming back as soon as Disney opens will most likely be local annual passholders and DVC members. Maybe. The comments here from people who want to return from out of state as soon as Disney opens comprise the third group, those who have no fears and believe everything to be under control, nationwide and Disneywide. I wish I had that kind of trust. I’m not even sure I’ll be keeping my end of November trip. As you say, there’s no way to know for sure how this will play out in the end. It’s too soon. And yes, the Trevor Noah/Bill Gates interview was the most interesting and informative. Albeit scary.
“The comments here from people who want to return from out of state as soon as Disney opens comprise the third group, those who have no fears and believe everything to be under control, nationwide and Disneywide.”
One thing to consider is that this group could shrink in size as the local peaks occur throughout the US. It’s one thing to hear about things happening in another country–or even NYC–it’s another to experience them on a local or personal level.
I agree Tom. Three people in my community were rushed to the hospital in the last two weeks. The only thing that matters today is that we and our loved ones stay healthy for the duration. Any worries about a Disney trip should be put on the back burner.
Reader from Australia here. Last night was our window to start booking our ADR’s for arrival on 3 October. We booked this trip mid January. We got all the dining we wanted… but there is such a sad feeling that the whole exercise was for nothing… trying to get through the day to day (hour to hour) struggle that is our lives at the moment, Disney is the bright spot. However it seems every day dims that bright spot as things just get worse and worse. I have a double conundrum – will the Australian/American governments let us travel in October and will the airlines we have booked with still be operational. Its enough to turn ones hair grey!
La magia nunca muere. El Sitio más feliz de la tierra es justo el lugar para estar pandemia o no. TenÃa reserva iones para Abril. Crisis o no crisis allà estaremos en Octubre. Somos una familia Disney de Honduras y Disney es parte de nosotros.
It’s a Sad and difficult moment. I ‘m from Brazil,. Mu family and I went to Disney’s Parks inthe end iFebruary+ I couldn’t imagine that after Just few days, when we came back ,the planet, mainly THE US were going through this terrible moment.!
Everything Will ok again, different world, different and kind people, better than before COVID-19.
I was supposed to be at WDW 3/24-3/31. I rebooked for 6/1-6/9 and took advantage of the free dining. I was supposed to have a DCL cruise to Alaska 6/1-6/8 which I knew would be cancelled (and it was today). If my trip that is booked to WDW in June gets cancelled, I will not rebook. I will not go any later in the summer to Florida (they would have to pay me to go to Florida in July and August!) After missing so much school this year (I’m a teacher), I won’t take time off school to go between Sept. and Dec either.
My big question is when do you think they will be open and when will they be 100% fully staffed ?
I still have my plans for may 7th . It does not look good
Another reason October dates are usually packed are because of various school districts offering fall breaks to students. This year things could be different. Not that school breaks won’t be offered, but that families might not be able to swing WDW trips. I’m going alone in November unless the parks are still closed or unless I get sick or die. I just hope, park wise, that it won’t be TOO crowded for my 50th bday in mid November. Not Thanksgiving week. I won’t go that week. Take care, all.
This is why we haven’t moved forward with ANY fall/winter plans, regardless of us going somewhere or someone coming to visit us. I would be shocked if the school district didn’t amend the 2020-21 calendar. I hear some saying we still won’t be back at school in the fall, but I don’t agree with that. One way or another, things will be back up and running. We cannot handle this economic halt for that long. Either way though, it may still be several months before school districts even make more concrete decisions. We are lucky to still be employed, and I would love to take advantage of low prices and reduced crowds (again, regardless of destination) while also supporting the economy. However, I am also reticent to tie up money with endless unknowns.
We were going in June,i canceled ( my daughter in law is pregnant,didntvwant to take a chance), had a house rented and airfare bought,got a full refund on everything,we are planning on going next year about the same time.
Sadly, no way.
Yeah I kind of figured a no
Thank you
It is a given that park attendance will be down for a bit. No reason to speculate. Just look at numbers from 9/11 and the big housing crisis. For those that can enjoy Disney you should find lower attendance and great deals on lodging. As far as Christmas those times are usually planned by most families way in advance. This summer is going to be a wash for a lot of families in the US. Hopefully by spring 2021 we can strength retiring to tourism.
I agree with the economic sentiment being negative. Beyond that there is the larger question of when would be safe to travel anywhere again. Not just to Disney, but travelling anywhere. A vaccine will take 12-18 months and that will be the fastest a vaccine will ever have been developed. Then it has to rolled out to a majority of the world’s 7 billion people before things are the “same” as before.
For more info, I highly recommend watching one of the interviews Bill Gates has done. The one with Trevor Noah was good. Very eye-opening!
I’ll second the Gates/Noah interview recommendation. Really fascinating and well-done piece.
LOLOLOL! You’re one of those tinfoil hat-wearing conspiracists. Fun. At least it gives you something to do…
Gail I dont trust him either.
We’re booked for Christmas week, and I’ve never watched my trip countdown with such mixed emotions!!! I’d love to hear your thoughts on what Christmas week could look like Tom! I’m hoping things are much much better by then but with this virus flowing in waves and waiting for a vaccine or for the general population to develop “natural herd immunity” to calm things down who knows?:(
“I’d love to hear your thoughts on what Christmas week could look like Tom!”
I don’t have the expertise to comment on it in terms of herd immunity, etc., but I would expect Christmas week to be busy regardless of how bad the economy gets. It’s just such a popular time to travel and a period during which demand far exceeds supply. It and other peak travel times when schools are out of session are least likely to see an impact one way or another.