Disney World Crowds Continue Rising
September is supposed to be the “sleepy” month in terms of Walt Disney World crowds; it’s a stretch that consistently has the lowest attendance and wait times of the year after the holiday weekend. In this post, we’ll look at how things are playing out with higher crowds thus far in September 2020.
By way of recap, our Labor Day “Crowdpocalypse” Walt Disney World Crowd Report offered a look at the holiday weekend, which saw elevated attendance as compared to the doldrums of summer but not the extreme crowd levels predicted. We attributed this to the proactive Disney Park Pass reservation system, which prevented the level of crushing crowds observed over the same holiday period at Universal Orlando.
Our follow-up to that focused on the same weekend at EPCOT, which was busier than the other three parks but still not oppressively bad. That theorized these same scenarios would play out every holiday travel period, or any time Disney Park Pass reservations are limited or unavailable and offered strategy for beating the crowds. As it turned out, we didn’t have to wait long for the Labor Day peaks to be tested–those crowd levels were surpassed this past week at Walt Disney World…
Earlier in the week, we noticed higher average wait times and heavier crowds in a couple of Walt Disney World parks. To be honest, it didn’t really raise any red flags at the time. Although Labor Day does not normally see lingering guests from the holiday weekend, this isn’t an average year. All bets were off long ago.
Our preliminary assumption was that more people than normal delayed their summer vacations, taking them over Labor Day. That would’ve justified elevated crowds on Tuesday and Wednesday. While that’s possibly still true to an extent, it wouldn’t account for attendance gains accelerating later in the week and into the following weekend. There must be another explanation (or explanations, plural)…
The next possibility is the intuitive one: reduced hours account for longer wait times. Walt Disney World reduced operating hours across all four theme parks beginning on September 8, with Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios seeing an hour eliminated while EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw 2 hours cut.
It would thus make sense for wait times throughout the day to increase, as more guests are concentrated during a shorter window of time rather than being spread throughout the day. (Although there really wasn’t a ton of staggering given that the hours were already pretty limited.)
The shorter operating hours could account for some of the increase, but not all of it.
This is only a partial explanation because average waits (per Thrill-Data) over the course of the last week are 33.4% higher at Magic Kingdom, despite a 10% reduction in hours. Above is a look at the disparity between this past week (blue line) and the prior six weeks (all the other lines lumped together).
Equally as likely is that Walt Disney World has quietly increased park capacity. It’s a near-certainty that this has happened.
In our Disney Park Pass availability updates, we’ve stopped using the term “reallocated” and are instead using “replenished” or “refilled.” Those might seem like r-word synonyms of one another, but they’re not. Reallocations were occurring when availability was moved among the three “buckets” of inventory for resort guests, theme park ticket holders, and Annual Passholders.
There have been a few times recently when a park (or parks) have gone from unavailable across all three buckets to suddenly having availability after an inventory dump. This should be obvious, but when you have zero of something, a reallocation is not possible–only a refill.
We’ve pointed this out on a few occasions, but it’s easy to overlook. It’s plausible that most days simply are inventory redistributions from the resort guest and theme park ticket holder buckets since the calendar is usually a sea of green for those. That’s not always the case, though. (On that front, the next “date to watch” is September 19, 2020–currently “no parks available” across all three buckets. We shall see if that’s still the case after the customary Thursday afternoon inventory dump.)
It’s also worth noting that Walt Disney World lifted Cast Member blockouts after the holiday last week at every park except Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Note that this is not open admission–Cast Members are still required to make Disney Park Pass reservations, which are limited and prioritized below all three regular guest buckets.
Pent-up demand among Cast Members could help explain an increase in crowds last week during a time that would naturally be Florida’s off-season. September is normally slow because it’s a weak time for tourism and most locals are going back to school or work during the week. With tens of thousands of Cast Members still furloughed, more than normal are able to visit the parks.
The culmination all these variables is elevated wait times throughout the last week, with a crowd-crescendo over the weekend. While EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw slightly lower average wait times as compared to the holiday weekend, both Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios had more significant increases.
Given that the comparison is between a holiday weekend and regular off-season weekend, we would’ve expected the latter to see a pronounced decrease. That’s what would’ve occurred in a normal year.
Over the Saturday of the holiday weekend, we were delighted to find that crowds at Disney’s Hollywood Studios were actually lower than the post-reopening average. It would seem that Disney over-corrected here, as wait times this Saturday (blue line) were up 66% over the holiday weekend (red line).
It probably also doesn’t help that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance had an abysmal weekend, getting through only 36 boarding groups one day and 40 the other. That’s a sharp contrast to the record 128 boarding groups the Saturday of Labor Day weekend.
We’re to the point now where wait times in September 2020 are higher than they were last September. Above is a comparison between the post-Labor Day week this year (blue line) versus last year (red line) at Magic Kingdom.
Obviously, this is not an apples to apples comparison given the dramatically reduced park hours and lack of FastPass+ this year. Nevertheless, with midday waits about 10 minutes higher this year (plus the aforementioned lack of FastPass+ and cut hours), it’s fair to say that waits are quantitatively worse. You’d accomplish far less on a full day this September than last.
UPDATE: It was quickly pointed out to us that Hurricane Dorian skewed crowd numbers in the week following Labor Day last year (thanks James S!). That is absolutely accurate–those were some of the lowest crowd levels and least-busy Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties we’ve experienced in years.
As such, above is a look at the Magic Kingdom wait time trends last week (blue line) as compared to the week of 9/9/19 (red line). That’s a lot better! Still, not quite what we’d like to see given the circumstances and other compromises of visiting Walt Disney World right now.
The silver lining, if you’re looking for one, is that congestion still remains relatively low most weekdays. If that’s your measure of crowd levels (as opposed to wait times), Walt Disney World is still in good shape. Weekends are a bit dicier, though.
The elimination of FastPass+ means guests are not in two places at one time. On top of that, wait times are increasing at levels disproportionate to actual attendance since attractions are being operated at significantly reduced capacity. This means that most of the time, the “feels like” crowds while wandering around are still pretty low.
Most of you who are contemplating a trip right now–with all of the compromises that entails–are probably doing so due to reports of low wait times. So the whole low “feels like” crowds angle is probably grasping at straws. (Just trying to find a bit of positivity in this!)
Strategically, you can still beat the worst of the crowds by simply avoiding weekends. There’s a significant split between weekdays and weekends, and avoiding the parks on Saturdays and Sundays–or doing Disney’s Hollywood Studios then–is a savvy plan of attack. That will probably remain true going forward.
Frankly, I’m not sure what the takeaway is here. Drawing any definitive conclusions from one week of what should be the off-season is a tad premature. That’s especially true as Walt Disney World continues to test & adjust what works and doesn’t, making tweaks as the phased reopening process continues.
Organic demand among tourists remains low. The vast majority of Americans are not yet comfortable visiting theme parks. Most potential guests have either cancelled or postponed Walt Disney World vacations until 2021. All it would take is a pullback of Disney Park Pass reservations for Annual Passholders and/or Cast Member blockouts, and the story would be very different here. There’s nothing to say that either or both won’t happen, especially if the more lucrative tourists and day guests get cold feet about visiting due to rising attendance and wait times.
On the other hand, these trends make sense and we have no reason to believe they’re total anomalies. Walt Disney World’s goal is to gradually increase attendance and capacity, which is something that has played out at other parks that have also reopened. To an extent, the interests of guests and those of Disney align here.
Both want to see restaurants, entertainment, seasonal offerings, longer hours, etc. return, and the only way that happens is with increased demand. (Disney isn’t bringing back Cinderella’s Royal Table or Minnie’s Halloween Dine out of corporate benevolence–it’s because both are now viewed as sustainable.) Guests just don’t want higher wait times. It’s something of a catch-22 situation.
Basically, our goal here is to offer readers an early “heads up” that while congestion levels will probably remain low for the remainder of the year, we’re now seeing signs that wait times may not. Until Walt Disney World can increase attraction capacity, which probably wouldn’t happen until physical distancing recommendations are eased, wait times for popular attractions will steadily increase with increased park attendance and capacity caps. Just one more thing to consider if you’re still on the fence about a 2020 Walt Disney World trip. We’ll keep you posted as to how this plays out and changes over the coming weeks.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit Walt Disney World this week or weekend? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? If you’ve been in past Septembers, how do you feel this compared? Are you okay with longer waits if it means a greater return to normalcy–or will you just wait to visit Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I’m curious how realistic it would be that Disney starts up FP+ or extends hours based on numbers over the next few weeks. We have a trip in mid October, and the crowds people are mentioning are giving me pause . . . Has Universal axed their FP+ equivalent As well?
Extending hours is definitely a possibility, but bringing back FastPass+ is not.
I do expect FastPass+ to return at some point with social distancing still in place. All the lines have the markers and are coordinated with the standby lines. I doubt it will be in the coming weeks, but imagine it will come back at some point. Maybe early 2021.
Universal still utilizes Unlimited Express Pass, and it is everything. Universal: 1 Disney: 0
Tom,
“Strategically, you can still beat the worst of the crowds by simply avoiding weekends. There’s still a significant split between weekdays and weekends, and avoiding the parks on Saturdays and Sundays—or doing Disney’s Hollywood Studios then—is a savvy plan of attack. And probably will remain that way going forward.”
Making sure I understand–DHS is recommended for Sat & Sun, do Epcot & MK during the week? I’m looking at Dec 6-16.
Thanks for your reply.
Correct.
I’m there that same time so will also follow that advise. Now to change my reservations… *sigh*
I was wondering that, too! I just moved my HS day from Sunday in lieu of AK, to try to get my best chance for RoR. Sounds like I should’ve left well enough alone! I assume AK would fall into the category of “avoid on weekends” (assuming I’m looking for lowest crowds).
That’s not good news. We will be keeping a finger on the pulse; for the next few months. See which way the crowd waits, & crowd trends go. Definitely, would avoid the parks on the weekends.
What is the reasoning for eliminating FP anyway? I get that, when Disney first opened, it probably wasn’t necessary (although I missed it in July). But with potential capacity and significant wait time increases, now seems like a good time to bring it back. Disney can crowd-track to their heart’s content, and it can do what it was originally intended – allow for crowd redistribution.
FastPass+ reduces the capacity of the parks because guests can effectively be in two places at one time: virtually in the queue while physically standing wherever.
Not a problem in normal times when the parks are operating at normal capacity, but an issue in the current environment.
I would disagree. Those FastPass+ lines are still allocated and for the most part being unused. Putting people in that space by reinstating FastPass+ would just remove them from the standby line and put them either in line or common areas. I think you could make an argument that it increases park capacity, but in reality it is probably unchanged.
We ended up leaving Epcot early yesterday because the World Showcase was so packed you could hardly walk through. It seemed dramatically busier than past weeks since reopening. My husband and I both agreed they must have increased reservations in the park pass system. We have felt safe every other day we have visited since park reopening and we have gone pretty much every weekend, but yesterday did not feel safe with those crowds.
Yikes–sorry to hear that, but thanks for sharing your experience.
What do you think Thanksgiving week is going to be like? We are worried about large crowds and long lines.
Way too early to say–a lot can change between now and then. Busy is my expectation, though.
Huh that doesn’t bode well for us. We were hoping to do MK next Saturday.
I noticed the Four Seasons in Orlando is trying to get the remote learning crowd. They were advertising dedicated space for remote learning and working. I wonder if people will take more fall vacations because they can work and e-learn from anywhere (and summer tourism was a bust).
I’ve seen a good bit of conversation in various Disney groups about this very thing. Several folks were asking how good the wifi was, as they were considering coming to Disney since they were working remotely and their kids were schooling online. I’ll also say that as a homeschool family, we always take our Disney vacations during 1st week of December or last week of August — because we have such a better experience with low crowds. Now other folks may have the same idea. It may be a game changer!
Yeah, that definitely seems like a possibility–especially if more people get comfortable with the idea of traveling.
Hey Tom – thanks for the info! My family is headed to WDW during the last week of September. With all of the well documented differences of the “new normal/temporarily abnormal” phase, how do you suggest that travelers maximize the magic in 2020?
Before all of this, WDW planning articles focused on booking FP, taking advantage of EMH, how and when to park hop, etc. What are important factors to prioritize now? Perhaps things like booking dining at certain restaurants during the hour after parks close, trying more seasonal treats than usual (pumpkin spice everything!)? Do you have a new set of WDW hacks to help us “get our money’s worth” in a challenged environment? Thanks!
Sounds like a good idea for a standalone post! 😉
I was hoping you might say that! That would be just awesome! Thanks.
This would be awesome!
Maybe I missed this somewhere but are resorts being held to lower capacity? Is every room in every open resort available? Have a short stay at Pop planned in early December before a few days at Universal and was just wondering what to expect in terms of resort crowds.
Glenna,
Resorts are not operating at full capacity
Thanks for the update! We will be in the parks Dec. 9-12. With Saturday being our last park day we were going to go to MK. Having never been to WDW before.. would you say that is not a good idea? Should we do Hollywood on Saturday instead? And why is that? What do you think the chances are that Fast Passes will come back by then?
We were there for Labor day weekend & this past weekend. Definitely noticed an increase in crowds this past weekend, compared to Labor day. Wait times weren’t too bad for us, we did everything we planned on doing. Skipped the rides that had higher wait times.
I can agree with some of this but I need to add that furloughed cast members cannot enter the parks. They are technically “laid off” and don’t have access to that perk. I don’t think the increase in crowds is due to CMs. It’s more than likely due to actual vacations of families who are able to home school, APs, and day ticket/off site visitors.
Nope – a Disney furlough means they are still employed CMs, health insurance is still being covered, discounts are still in effect, so they are still technically employed. But because they’re not working any hours, they’re not getting a paycheck. Cast entry is being added a little bit at a time, so they absolutely could be adding to the crowd levels. Just not at DHS – as Tom says, DHS is blocked for Cast, but the other three parks have Cast availability sometimes on Tues, Wed, and Thurs.
Jennifer – Not true. My CM friends who were furloughed are NOT able to enter the parks. Their access maps are totally blocked off.
We booked a trip for October 16 – 17 as my family who lives in Orlando and several friends said it was a great time to go with the low wait times…that may not be the case.
We planned on Hollywood Studios for Friday and Magic Kingdom on Saturday. Do you recommend we switch those? Thank you!
From what I’ve read, have not visited myself, HS sees little difference in times between weekend and weekday whereas other parks are typically busier on weekends. Will be curious what others on here think, but it might be worthwhile flipping MK to Friday. I think right now it seems to be a little difficult for anyone to accurately predicate the park experience from day-to-day.
Yes, you should switch those if you can. MK is much busier on Saturdays than Fridays, while DHS is about the same every day.
Thank you both!
We just got back yesterday from a week long trip. Most of our days were wonderful and quiet, although we didn’t get a Rise pass as they booked within seconds and no 2PM slots opened up. But Saturday 9/12 at MK was not great. The morning hours were fine, most rides we walked on, but holy hell a ton of people showed up around noon and it was genuinely concerning, to the point we left the park early. That narrow path between Small World and Peter Pan was almost indistinguishable from normal operation crowds. Making it worse was some sustained rain, which concentrated crowds under cover. The wait times weren’t ever a deal breaker, most were still marked improvements under normal, but distancing outside of queue lines flew out the window pretty quickly.
Yep. We were there last week as well and it was definitely not a ghost town. It got super busy Friday afternoon at MK, which we thought looked like locals showed up after school hours. (Nothing against locals, it was just a difference from what we normally saw and figured people were done with school and came to the park.)
I agree 1000% with James S. We were also in MK on Saturday, and while we were able to do several rides in the early morning with little to no wait times, everything past about 11am was crowded. We, too, were concerned enough to leave shortly after noon, and I’m now reconsidering our trip over Halloween weekend; I don’t want to be in those crowds again on a Saturday. Disney has *their* act together, as far as what they can do on their end, but I was shocked by other guests’ lack of concern for personal space while in walkways, and occasionally in queues. There were lines to get in stores, lines just to get a Coke at a kiosk, and walkways felt congested. We were also there in July, and while we didn’t expect the same super-low levels of crowds, we were surprised how many people were there on a (rainy!) non-holiday September Saturday. Crowds appeared to be families and large groups. Epcot on Friday and DHS on Sunday felt much less congested to us than MK did on Saturday. Though wait times at DHS did seem high.
We were at MK on Sunday as well and it was really crowded. There were few but far between areas of less congestion. Fantasy land, adventure land, main street, and tomorrow land were packed. No distancing possible much of the day. Strangely, the only place that distancing could be attempted was in front of the castle. This does not bode well for holiday season….
We were at Magic Kingdom yesterday and were frankly surprised that the “feels like” crowd level still felt pretty high. We were disappointed at the longer than expected wait times, but were expecting some lines to be long so we just took that for what it was (although we did not get through nearly the volume of attractions that we are used to getting through). What we did not expect, and which made us uncomfortable, was that we were often caught in very large crowds of people who did not respect social distancing at all, would brush up against you or stand very near you. We spent our day trying to avoid crowds. We found pockets of areas with low crowd density and that was wonderful. However, to get from one place was often very crowded. We know we technically signed up for it so take our complaints with a grain of salt, but we probably would not have travelled from out of state to Disney this weekend had we known it would be so crowded.
Sorry to hear that was your experience–but thanks for sharing it.
Now that the NFL is back, I hadn’t planned on visiting the parks on Sundays going forward. However, we should probably check it out next weekend. I can trade being disappointed in the Detroit Lions finding new ways to lose for being disappointed in WDW crowd levels.
That was our experience as well. We had a visit to MK on Wednesday and it was everything I hoped it would be; low crowds, no waits, people being cool. Saturday was basically the opposite.
More speculation, but is it possible the last 2 weeks in December will have lighter crowds? Will AP block out dates affect crowds, in combination with less out of state travelers? (lol this is VERY wishful thinking on my part). Also, haven’t cast member block out dates been getting lifted since July when the park reopened? Is labor day the first weekend cast members remained blocked out?
If two weeks ago you asked me to predict last week’s crowd levels, I would’ve missed the mark by a wide margin.
While I think your premises are solid, the unfortunate reality is that there’s a lot of volatility and variables at play (flu season, case numbers, discounts, capacity adjustments) that it’s simply possible to say right now. I’m hoping that last week was at least somewhat of an anomaly with things normalizing and becoming more predictable for the next few months…but I don’t have a ton of confidence in that actually happening.
I appreciate the data. As you say, the only real appeal to a visit with short hours and drastically reduced offering is having low wait times. With those gone (not only are your standby waits up, but with no FP+ you lose you 3+ rides per day with minimal wait), it’s a strong disincentive to visitation.
Are the wait times posted pretty accurate?
There is definitely more wait time inflation than normal (there’s always some), but that’s been the case since the parks reopened. If anything, I’d say that increased crowd levels have led to more accurate wait times (since it smoothes out anomalies like party size and other factors).
Our general experience throughout all parks last week was wait times were on average 10 minutes less than posted; sometimes significantly less.
Comparing to last year after Labor Day is tough too becuase so many incoming flights and trips were cancelled due to Hurricane Dorian.
We arrived for that week ahead of the hurricane. You barely saw any new guest arrivals that week until Friday.
Oh wow, I cannot believe I forgot about that. You’re absolutely right, the week following Labor Day was dead last year due to Dorian. Thanks for the heads up–I’ve added to the post accordingly!
It was a gamble for us to go, but it worked out in our favor! We barely waited 5-10 minutes for anything. Probably will never plan a September trip again though due to storm risk and it was tremendously hot!