Disney World Crowds Continue Rising
September is supposed to be the “sleepy” month in terms of Walt Disney World crowds; it’s a stretch that consistently has the lowest attendance and wait times of the year after the holiday weekend. In this post, we’ll look at how things are playing out with higher crowds thus far in September 2020.
By way of recap, our Labor Day “Crowdpocalypse” Walt Disney World Crowd Report offered a look at the holiday weekend, which saw elevated attendance as compared to the doldrums of summer but not the extreme crowd levels predicted. We attributed this to the proactive Disney Park Pass reservation system, which prevented the level of crushing crowds observed over the same holiday period at Universal Orlando.
Our follow-up to that focused on the same weekend at EPCOT, which was busier than the other three parks but still not oppressively bad. That theorized these same scenarios would play out every holiday travel period, or any time Disney Park Pass reservations are limited or unavailable and offered strategy for beating the crowds. As it turned out, we didn’t have to wait long for the Labor Day peaks to be tested–those crowd levels were surpassed this past week at Walt Disney World…
Earlier in the week, we noticed higher average wait times and heavier crowds in a couple of Walt Disney World parks. To be honest, it didn’t really raise any red flags at the time. Although Labor Day does not normally see lingering guests from the holiday weekend, this isn’t an average year. All bets were off long ago.
Our preliminary assumption was that more people than normal delayed their summer vacations, taking them over Labor Day. That would’ve justified elevated crowds on Tuesday and Wednesday. While that’s possibly still true to an extent, it wouldn’t account for attendance gains accelerating later in the week and into the following weekend. There must be another explanation (or explanations, plural)…
The next possibility is the intuitive one: reduced hours account for longer wait times. Walt Disney World reduced operating hours across all four theme parks beginning on September 8, with Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios seeing an hour eliminated while EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw 2 hours cut.
It would thus make sense for wait times throughout the day to increase, as more guests are concentrated during a shorter window of time rather than being spread throughout the day. (Although there really wasn’t a ton of staggering given that the hours were already pretty limited.)
The shorter operating hours could account for some of the increase, but not all of it.
This is only a partial explanation because average waits (per Thrill-Data) over the course of the last week are 33.4% higher at Magic Kingdom, despite a 10% reduction in hours. Above is a look at the disparity between this past week (blue line) and the prior six weeks (all the other lines lumped together).
Equally as likely is that Walt Disney World has quietly increased park capacity. It’s a near-certainty that this has happened.
In our Disney Park Pass availability updates, we’ve stopped using the term “reallocated” and are instead using “replenished” or “refilled.” Those might seem like r-word synonyms of one another, but they’re not. Reallocations were occurring when availability was moved among the three “buckets” of inventory for resort guests, theme park ticket holders, and Annual Passholders.
There have been a few times recently when a park (or parks) have gone from unavailable across all three buckets to suddenly having availability after an inventory dump. This should be obvious, but when you have zero of something, a reallocation is not possible–only a refill.
We’ve pointed this out on a few occasions, but it’s easy to overlook. It’s plausible that most days simply are inventory redistributions from the resort guest and theme park ticket holder buckets since the calendar is usually a sea of green for those. That’s not always the case, though. (On that front, the next “date to watch” is September 19, 2020–currently “no parks available” across all three buckets. We shall see if that’s still the case after the customary Thursday afternoon inventory dump.)
It’s also worth noting that Walt Disney World lifted Cast Member blockouts after the holiday last week at every park except Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Note that this is not open admission–Cast Members are still required to make Disney Park Pass reservations, which are limited and prioritized below all three regular guest buckets.
Pent-up demand among Cast Members could help explain an increase in crowds last week during a time that would naturally be Florida’s off-season. September is normally slow because it’s a weak time for tourism and most locals are going back to school or work during the week. With tens of thousands of Cast Members still furloughed, more than normal are able to visit the parks.
The culmination all these variables is elevated wait times throughout the last week, with a crowd-crescendo over the weekend. While EPCOT and Animal Kingdom saw slightly lower average wait times as compared to the holiday weekend, both Magic Kingdom and Disney’s Hollywood Studios had more significant increases.
Given that the comparison is between a holiday weekend and regular off-season weekend, we would’ve expected the latter to see a pronounced decrease. That’s what would’ve occurred in a normal year.
Over the Saturday of the holiday weekend, we were delighted to find that crowds at Disney’s Hollywood Studios were actually lower than the post-reopening average. It would seem that Disney over-corrected here, as wait times this Saturday (blue line) were up 66% over the holiday weekend (red line).
It probably also doesn’t help that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance had an abysmal weekend, getting through only 36 boarding groups one day and 40 the other. That’s a sharp contrast to the record 128 boarding groups the Saturday of Labor Day weekend.
We’re to the point now where wait times in September 2020 are higher than they were last September. Above is a comparison between the post-Labor Day week this year (blue line) versus last year (red line) at Magic Kingdom.
Obviously, this is not an apples to apples comparison given the dramatically reduced park hours and lack of FastPass+ this year. Nevertheless, with midday waits about 10 minutes higher this year (plus the aforementioned lack of FastPass+ and cut hours), it’s fair to say that waits are quantitatively worse. You’d accomplish far less on a full day this September than last.
UPDATE: It was quickly pointed out to us that Hurricane Dorian skewed crowd numbers in the week following Labor Day last year (thanks James S!). That is absolutely accurate–those were some of the lowest crowd levels and least-busy Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties we’ve experienced in years.
As such, above is a look at the Magic Kingdom wait time trends last week (blue line) as compared to the week of 9/9/19 (red line). That’s a lot better! Still, not quite what we’d like to see given the circumstances and other compromises of visiting Walt Disney World right now.
The silver lining, if you’re looking for one, is that congestion still remains relatively low most weekdays. If that’s your measure of crowd levels (as opposed to wait times), Walt Disney World is still in good shape. Weekends are a bit dicier, though.
The elimination of FastPass+ means guests are not in two places at one time. On top of that, wait times are increasing at levels disproportionate to actual attendance since attractions are being operated at significantly reduced capacity. This means that most of the time, the “feels like” crowds while wandering around are still pretty low.
Most of you who are contemplating a trip right now–with all of the compromises that entails–are probably doing so due to reports of low wait times. So the whole low “feels like” crowds angle is probably grasping at straws. (Just trying to find a bit of positivity in this!)
Strategically, you can still beat the worst of the crowds by simply avoiding weekends. There’s a significant split between weekdays and weekends, and avoiding the parks on Saturdays and Sundays–or doing Disney’s Hollywood Studios then–is a savvy plan of attack. That will probably remain true going forward.
Frankly, I’m not sure what the takeaway is here. Drawing any definitive conclusions from one week of what should be the off-season is a tad premature. That’s especially true as Walt Disney World continues to test & adjust what works and doesn’t, making tweaks as the phased reopening process continues.
Organic demand among tourists remains low. The vast majority of Americans are not yet comfortable visiting theme parks. Most potential guests have either cancelled or postponed Walt Disney World vacations until 2021. All it would take is a pullback of Disney Park Pass reservations for Annual Passholders and/or Cast Member blockouts, and the story would be very different here. There’s nothing to say that either or both won’t happen, especially if the more lucrative tourists and day guests get cold feet about visiting due to rising attendance and wait times.
On the other hand, these trends make sense and we have no reason to believe they’re total anomalies. Walt Disney World’s goal is to gradually increase attendance and capacity, which is something that has played out at other parks that have also reopened. To an extent, the interests of guests and those of Disney align here.
Both want to see restaurants, entertainment, seasonal offerings, longer hours, etc. return, and the only way that happens is with increased demand. (Disney isn’t bringing back Cinderella’s Royal Table or Minnie’s Halloween Dine out of corporate benevolence–it’s because both are now viewed as sustainable.) Guests just don’t want higher wait times. It’s something of a catch-22 situation.
Basically, our goal here is to offer readers an early “heads up” that while congestion levels will probably remain low for the remainder of the year, we’re now seeing signs that wait times may not. Until Walt Disney World can increase attraction capacity, which probably wouldn’t happen until physical distancing recommendations are eased, wait times for popular attractions will steadily increase with increased park attendance and capacity caps. Just one more thing to consider if you’re still on the fence about a 2020 Walt Disney World trip. We’ll keep you posted as to how this plays out and changes over the coming weeks.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you visit Walt Disney World this week or weekend? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? If you’ve been in past Septembers, how do you feel this compared? Are you okay with longer waits if it means a greater return to normalcy–or will you just wait to visit Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I was there 2 weeks ago for a girls weekend. We did DHS on Sunday. We waited 40 minutes the first go around for Smugglers run then walked on it 2 more times. We did Slinky Dog 4 times. We did TS Mania twice. I mean the list goes on and on. RISE was down so I was sad to miss that, but the day was amazing. The one that really got me was Star Tours. I have been riding that since it came out in 1987. I remember driving to Land with my mom and waiting for over 3 hours to ride it. We walked on it twice. I was in awe. We did AK on Monday and did FOP 4 times in a row. And went on everything else in the park that we wanted with no issues. I came home and told my husband we have got to go back!
Tom, did you see the closing time for animal kingdom is extended for just 1 hr on this coming Sunday? It says it closes at 6pm instead of 5pm but Saturday and Monday are still 5pm? Thoughts?
Ok just kidding it is showing 6pm closing starting tomorrow but seriously it changed as I was typing my question!
Ok back to just Sunday night…but seriously what is Disney IT doing?!?!!? Other than messing with me!!!!
What’s your prediction for when Fastpass (or whatever its replacement is from one of your earlier posts) will return? Do you think whatever holiday bump they get will be enough to bring it back? I know it’ll still be less crowded than past Christmases, but if crowds and wait times are already increasing, I’m worried how it will look Christmas week.
Also, do you have any recommendations for park pass reservations the week of Christmas? I read your other post about when to reserve EPCOT based on the availability of other parks, but it’s likely a higher proportion of guests will be spending the whole week at the park over Christmas, making the whole week a “weekend.” Do you have a method to the madness yet?
Hi Tom. Thank you for sharing valuable insights that help us make informed decisions. My husband and I live in FL and enjoy visiting Disney parks in October when crowds are lighter and the weather is cooler. Fall is a rite of passage for us “locals” who deal with heat and humidity all summer long. We always plan weekday trips to avoid crowds although we know not everyone can do this due to their schedules. We don’t mind the compromises in these unprecedented times as it gives us an opportunity to explore some of the Disney Resorts and do things we might not have considered otherwise. We have ADR’s for Sanaa at Kidani Village and Topolino’s at Riviera Resort. After reading your article on updated Halloween offerings, we added a Park Pass for MK and Minnie’s Halloween Dine to our itinerary. Looking forward to fall decorations, pop up character calvacades and those delicious fall snacks. The one thing on my bucket list this trip is The Kiss Goodnight at MK.
Something else to consider – many schools in the Northeast that would normally start right before or right after Labor Day we’re delayed this year. We’re in Mass and my daughter would have gone back on 9/3 but it was pushed back to today, 9/14. I know NY and RI also delayed their starts.
Great point! Some North Carolina school districts delayed starting until the end of October.
We are at the parks now. Very disappointed with the wait times. Rides continue to break down. Do not come back without the fast passes unless you enjoy waiting 1.5 hours per ride.
I completely understand their desire to slowly increase attendance. But to do it while simultaneously cutting hours is not consumer-friendly, nor is it safety-conscious.
We were in the parks 9/9 through 9/13. 9/9 at Magic Kingdom was lovely – we did 20 rides and 2 meals during open hours. EPCOT the next day wasn’t bad either. That’s where our luck ran out. Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom felt more crowded than our typical post-Labor Day vacation. Lots of long waits in addition to lingering crowds all over the place. Loved the first half of our stay, but wouldn’t have come with our two toddlers if we knew how relatively crowded the second half would be. Not enough space for our comfort.
I have been enjoying Disney World since 1971, with each of 6 children and grands. At 73 yrs old, I am now hoping to move to Kissimmee area, buy an annual pass and walk, walk, walk through the parks. & float down lazy river.no riding fast rides any more. I am wondering if you could find out when annual pass will be offered again and when water parks will reopen? Many thanks.
I’m hearing from many within my sphere of friends and work they are going to D-world in Sept/Oct this year because their kids’ schools are virtual. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if these two months especially have an uptick.
I’d like to echo what others have said – we just got back from a 4 day trip. Saturday at MK was really unpleasant. As others mentioned, the first few hours were great, with low crowds and waits. But around noon all hell broke loose. This was our third “long weekend” visit to the Disney bubble since they reopened and this was the first one where we started to feel unsafe. Not only was it noticeably busier, but there was much less respect for the distancing markers in the queue and (I’d estimate) mask compliance was more like 85%. We have another trip scheduled for mid-November that I’m reconsidering now. I know that Disney has to do more than 6k people per day like they were in July (which was awesome but unsustainable), but Saturday felt like they overshot to the other side.
Hm we went in July and even though the crowds were low I missed fast pass. Currently have an October and December trip on the books and I’m considering canceling October if the crowds will be high and there’s no fast pass. I don’t mind riding fewer rides if it’s more enjoyable. Also I’m taking extended family and this is the trip to talk them into loving Disney– I can certainly plan and control more with fast pass and waiting in line with four small children doesn’t sound like the way to win them over to my obsession Hahaa
Thanks, Tom. I was in HS yesterday and currently at Epcot today. You are spot on with the level of crowds being low, but wait times up at the attractions. It’s been pleasant to get around the parks for sure, but Disney needs to strongly consider bringing back Fastpasses if they are manipulating capacity. The data definitely suggests something is going on. Regardless, still very glad to be back at WDW! The overall congestion is way down, cast members are supportive and glad to be back, and Disney has made a tremendous effort to make guests safe.
We visited last week and had no problems with crowds or wait times during the week. Saturday was a different ballgame. Like others have said, I didn’t feel comfortable in many areas due to the crowds and lack of social distancing at Magic Kingdom. Most of the crowds didn’t appear to be locals to me. Many were family groups with their matching shirts. Wait times were inflated, so I didn’t have a problem with any lines. I think our longest wait was 30 min for Space Mountain. I just had a problem with the number of people with no regard for personal space. I commented on Saturday that Disney must have increased their capacity numbers. During the week, we thought guests were very compliant with distancing markers and mask wearing. Saturday was the rogue crowd.
We were there last week, and we found the wait times on the app to be over estimated on almost all the rides. Pirates of the Caribbean, for instance, almost always showed a 60 minute wait, but we rode it 3 times and never waited more than 15 minutes, if that. There were very few that were accurate. It’s a Small world, Jungle Cruise, Slinky Dog Dash, and Star Tours are the limited number that come to mind off the top of my head as accurate. For the most part, you could shave off a good 15-20 mins or more on wait times, just for anyone planning a trip soon.
Whoops, not Star Tours – that was over estimated. Smugglers Run was the accurate one. My brain is still trying to recover, haha.
Any thoughts on when bookings beyond September 2021 may open up?
If this trend continues, they really need to bring back Fastpass and/or some type of virtual queue system. When we went in early August (when the crowds were still low), I felt like all we did was wait in lines – it was very frustrating. That was my 11th trip to WDW, and I’ve never waited so long and so often. At least with Fastpass, you know that you’ll have three or more rides that are basically walk-ons. Disney has nothing to offer now except for the tantalizingly low crowds, so if that changes and lines get longer and longer, I think they’ll have a lot of guest dissatisfaction.
I agree. We were there in August too, and we really missed being able to “wait” virtually outside of queues with the FP system. I understand that not everyone utilized FP to the full extent and for them these “lower” waits seem great. But in prior trips in August it used to be the case that FP availability was plentiful throughout the day so you never really had to wait standby except maybe once or twice.
I also do wonder if part of what is driving crowds now is that (1) virtual school is so awful and pointless, parents feel less bad about pulling kids out for a few days; and (2) people thought of September as the “off season” and so booked it (and did not book July) to try to go when they thought it would be least crowded. Kind of like how with Galaxy Edge, nobody went when it first opened because they feared crowds, but then after the extra morning hours went away is when crowds picked up because people planned their vacations then hoping it would be less crowded after it was open a couple of months. I know we for one avoided July because I feared pent up demand would lead to crowd spikes right after opening, but in hindsight that was pretty dumb.
There’s three more possible reasons for the increasing wait times:
– Disney may be cutting ride capacity/staffing. I know this is harder to verify.
– the recent increase in down time for rides is causing more people to be in line for the rides which are still functioning.
– Disney wasn’t hitting their attendance goals previously because of the reluctance to allocate enough park entries to the annual pass bucket. Now that Disney is apparently doing a better job they may simply be getting closer to their desired attendance instead of increasing those attendance limits.
Since Disney doesn’t release attendance info this is an exercise in tea-leaf reading to some extent.
We did not notice any rides down this weekend (with the exception of Rise of the Resistance, but that’s not new). It also appeared they’ve increased both ride capacity and staffing. The third possibility is reasonable. Though I have to say, after being there this past Saturday, it sure didn’t feel like a 20% capacity day. It felt very close to the types of crowds in a sold out after hours event. I have to wonder if they’ve increased their capacity. And if they’ll decrease it again.
Hi Tom! Thank you SO much for all your insightful information! Your blog is our “go-to” for all things Disney! We have a trip planned for Oct. 10-17 (in the parks Ot. 11-16) and are just wondering if it is still your recommendation to NOT be there at rope drop but rather wait an hour or so for things to settle. With the hours so short, we just want to have the best chance of doing as much as possible each day. Thanks again for all your advice!
Definitely be there at rope drop.
DHS is the only park where a late arrival might make sense, but even there probably not for most guests because it means forgoing your best chance at Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance. Everywhere else, without question, arrive for rope drop.
Anyone know if the Hollywood & Vine Minnie’s Halloween lunch/dinner will see a discounted rate? I believe Cinderella’s Royal Table is discounted, but I don’t think the princesses will be there. I know the characters will still be at H&V, but there won’t be a buffet, you’ll get to pick your meal. Just wondering if Disney has addressed this at all. Thanks!
No confirmation yet, but I doubt it’ll cost less. Topolino’s Terrace and Garden Grill did not decrease prices.
Sorry, I don’t understand…what is the rationale to suggesting doing Hollywood Studios on one of the busier/weekend days?
The rationale is that DHS is coming close or hitting its capacity cap on weekdays too, so there’s not as much of a difference between weekends and weekdays in that park.
By contrast, the other parks (especially EPCOT) see larger increases on weekends as compared to weekdays.