Disney World Crowds Down Over 40%
Walt Disney World’s crowd levels have dropped significantly in the last two weeks of January 2021, down by 40% to over 50% as compared to their Christmas and New Year’s highs–even the recent holiday weekend was not particularly busy. In this post, we’ll take a look at recent wait time data and offer some predictions for trends going forward.
This may not seem like a huge surprise; after all, winter is off-season at Walt Disney World. However, that’s only true historically if you ignore the last two years. Last January and February actually had longer average wait times than the November and December before them.
There was thus ample reason for trepidation heading into the new year, although (as discussed in our Will Crowds Keep Skyrocketing at Walt Disney World in 2021?) there were plenty of reasons why we expected Winter 2021 to be more “historically normal” and follow established trends due to a lack of new attractions, athletic events, group bookings, and international travel. Thus far, that’s precisely how January 2021 has played out…
There was a temporary blip of elevated crowds the first week of January 2021 due to holiday holdovers, local school breaks, and runDisney regulars who didn’t cancel trips even though the Marathon went virtual. Average wait times have dropped in the subsequent weeks, including over the Martin Luther King Day Jr. holiday weekend.
During that time, average daily per park wait times at Walt Disney World have ranged from 13 to 43 minutes, with the bulk of average times 30 minutes and above occurring on Saturdays or Sundays. Weekday averages, especially during the middle of the week, are routinely in the neighborhood of 20 minutes or less.
As we underscored in last week’s Magic Kingdom Park Report, this doesn’t mean everything is a walk-on. During our midweek visit, we observed the Magic Kingdom mountain range attractions with 40+ minute waits (save for Space Mountain), but that was offset by several other attractions with 5 to 10 minute waits.
Of particular anecdotal note to us were Peter Pan’s Flight and Haunted Mansion, neither of which were using their extended queues. In general, we didn’t see much of any overflow queues in use; certainly not to the extent as was the case during the holiday season.
It’s easy to quibble with observations. No one can be everywhere, everyday and there’s also the element of luck, both good and bad. Accordingly, let’s look at the data, which paints a pretty definitive picture of current trends at Walt Disney World.
Judging by our review of average waits (per Thrill-Data), crowds have improved dramatically in the last few weeks. Let’s take a park by park look at the decreases in wait time at Walt Disney World, followed by some commentary…
First up is Magic Kingdom. In case you can’t read the legend, the blue line is last week and the red line is the previous week. The yellow and purple are Christmas and New Year’s, respectively. (That’s true for the graphs of all four parks.)
Even a cursory glance reveals that crowds the last two weeks have dropped precipitously. Average wait times are down by 43% since their holiday peaks.
Over at Animal Kingdom, the decline might not appear as significant at first blush since there’s less of a spread among the blue through yellow lines. (Additionally, I’m guessing the red spike is due to a data scraping error.)
However, the purple and blue lines are even further apart. That’s a 56% drop between the week of New Year’s and last week.
The contrast is most stark at EPCOT, with a 63% fall-off between New Year’s and last week.
Of course, that’s always the busiest week of the year for EPCOT, making it something of an anomaly. Even still, wait times were down 39% last week as compared to the week starting December 14.
Finally, we head to Disney’s Hollywood Studios (apologies for the garbled legend). As you can see, there wasn’t nearly as pronounced of a difference at DHS throughout the holiday season. This is because the park was hitting capacity many/most days, so there wasn’t room for attendance to increase further.
This has similarly been the basis for our past advice to do Disney’s Hollywood Studios on a weekend; just as there wasn’t much week to week difference, there wasn’t as much of a weekday v. weekend disparity. As you can probably surmise from the red and blue lines above, that’s not true in the last two weeks. This makes planning advice trickier for Disney’s Hollywood Studios, but it’s a good problem to have. (See our “Star Wars Spike” discussion from the weekend update for more thoughts on that.)
We don’t want to overwhelm you with data, but we’ll conclude with what we think is an interesting look at the third week of each month starting with January 2021 and going back to last summer’s reopening.
The grey and pink lines are July and August, when the parks were ‘ghost towns.’ Just above that in blue is last week. While still higher than the summer lows, we ware now seeing the lowest average wait times since last September. (It’s notable that hours are currently longer and weather is nicer, making January a qualitatively better time to visit, too.)
Looking forward, we still believe the next couple of months will probably be the sweet spot this year to visit if your primary consideration is attendance levels and wait times. Consult our January 2021 Crowd Calendar, February 2021 Crowd Calendar, and March 2021 Crowd Calendar for specific best and worst dates to visit Walt Disney World.
There could be good dates beyond that, but the remainder of the year is way less predictable due to myriad unknowns; that’s why our 2021 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars are pretty vague for the summer, fall, and holiday season. In the more immediate future, our main concern when it comes to Walt Disney World attendance trends is that we’ll see a repeat of last September.
By way of recap, last September saw elevated crowd levels as compared to the months before it. There are a number of factors for this, but two big ones are that travelers were enticed by the empty park photos from summer, and that visitors were postponing travel until Florida’s case numbers started falling.
The set-up today parallels that. Low crowds during the winter off-season are likely to entice people to plan trips, as are falling case numbers throughout the United States (we won’t fixate on the latter, having already covered that at length in our new Quarantines for Walt Disney World Travelers Update).
The biggest potential difference is that instead of those postponed trips being moved to September, they’ll be moved to April. In a normal year, crowds would drop sharply between August and September, with the latter being the slowest month of the year at Walt Disney World. Last year, the opposite happened.
By contrast, crowds would normally increase between March and April. If this pattern plays out again, April would go from high to higher attendance instead of low to moderate. We’re not necessarily predicting a huge spike in crowds come April 2021–there are still way too many unknowns and a lot of people might postpone travel until summer–but that’s a legitimate concern.
Ultimately, we view this as both good and bad news. For anyone visiting in the next couple of months, it’ll likely be a great experience more reminiscent of winters of the past. For locals or those in a position to take a last minute getaway to Walt Disney World, that’s great.
However, seeing reports of low crowds now could create unrealistic expectations and entice visits later in the spring or summer, when attendance numbers could be dramatically higher. (Hence these words of caution rather than us just hyping up the low crowds without further commentary!) Our view on Revenge Travel in 2021 at Walt Disney World remains unchanged–it’s just more likely people are delaying those trips until later in the year, leaving fewer months on the calendar to “absorb” a growing number of guests.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visit Walt Disney World in January 2021? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? Did you notice a significant difference between posted and actual wait times? If you’ve been in past winters (specifically last year), how do you feel this compared? Any theories as to why this happened? Are you okay with longer waits later in 2021 if it means a greater return to normalcy at Walt Disney World—or would you prefer the lower crowds now? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I think a big thing, especially off season times, like mid Jan to mid feb, there’s normally huge conferences and annual meets at the areas convention centers and bigger hotels. Even directly on Disney property. A lot of those conferences are virtual or scaled way back. There’s normally a huge 16-20000 person veterinary trade show in Jan or early feb. there’s also a bigger large pharmaceutical convention around the same time. Those typically add some attendance as well. I think we all want Disney back to pre pandemic form sooner rather than later. But they need all the visitor streams to reopen. It’s just going to take longer than anyone originally thought. I want to be optimistic for our July trip. Maybe fireworks or harmonious, hell I’ll even like Nemo the musical to return. But I’m just not holding my breath. If fast passes return that would be nice. But if not we’ll book a vip tour on one of the days.
I think all we can do, is do our guests to stay Covid free, get numbers to come down and get more people to the parks.
I went in November right before thanksgiving and while lines we longer and it was “crowded” it was still better than any summer I’ve been there during “normal” times. Going back in February and hope these trends continue!
Have you had any luck with doing AK during the week? is there any way to see the lights of pandora since the park closes at 5 regularly now?
Sunset in Orlando is 5:59 tonight and dusk ends around 6:30. Not much luck in seeing any lights if they don’t turn them on automatically.
It’s such a double edged sword isn’t it? Everyone wants quicker lines but that means the capacity is lower, WHICH likely means you’ll also be missing things like fireworks and character meet and greets. So either way, some version of an ideal vacation is gone. Sigh.
We just got back (1/19-2/23) and we were so surprised at the lack of crowds and the low wait times. It was great! We even changed restaurant reservations without a problem.
We’re in Hollywood Studios today (1/25/21). Posted wait time for Mickey & Minnie’s Train ride was 45 minutes. Actual wait time was about 20-25 min. Posted wait time for Toy Story Mania was 30 min. Actual Tim till boarding our car, 13 minutes. Line length is deceiving.
We are in Disney World right now and the crowds (or lack of) are great! Our longest wait at Hollywood Studios was Tower of Terror yesterday, and that was 30 minutes. In the late afternoon everything was about 20 minutes or less. We are so glad that we came this week! Thanks Tom for your tips!
I went to book a vacation for mid March and Rome rates are reasonable. Ticket prices are however out of sight. $168.00 a day per person for a family of four is ridiculous. Changed our plans.
If we’re vaccinated, if the pandemic is knocked down, if Disneyland is open, we have a tentative plan to go there the first week of August. But that’s a lot of ifs. And we probably won’t go if there’s no shows and no touching characters. So…here’s hoping! There’s always next year.
Just returned from a trip and can confirm, wait times are extremely low. However, I still was unable to get into Rise of the Resistance. I tried a couple of times and the queue was filled in about 5 seconds. I did all of the things to prepare and thought for sure I was in……until it said I wasn’t . Seriously, this was all under 5 seconds. Is everyone booking HS, trying for the ride, then changing parks? Sadly, the day we went we stood in the free COVID testing line longer than expected and didn’t make it in time to try the 1:00 queue. Is that one any better?
The last week or so, the 1 pm boarding pass drop has remained open for much longer (in some cases, over an hour). That could change as word gets out, though.
Mary, that sounds just like trying to sign up for a vaccination time in Florida. I’ve tried several morning so far (getting up right before 6AM to log in at 6) and haven’t been successful yet. Hoping for better luck in February. Maybe the same with ROTR.
Bummer, sorry to hear that. We were there all week, 16-23rd. Changing park reservations was easy, dining too. Only did Oga’s one time, but hit ROTR 3 for 3. I think we got groups 43, then 3, then 23.
Short lines were awesome, with most waits around half of the posted value and many E-tickets were almost walk-ons.
We did a modified monorail pub crawl by starting at Poly with pool bar beers. Talk with Steve there. Got one to go and walked to GF, where we had a nice chat with Gloria in the smaller gift shop while purchasing a couple Jai Alai. Rode the mono to Contemporary, where we had beers from the gift shop, then a late dinner at Cali Grill.
It’s not about the treat of infection nor the presence of COVID. folks don’t want to go because of the mask mandates and other rules which Disney has (not the state of Florida). They’ll make these rules, limit options then complain about lost revenue. Lines are not down a whole lot considering what this article is saying. The lines are slightly down but what’s normally a one hour line stretches a quarter way across the park.
“Lines are not down a whole lot considering what this article is saying. The lines are slightly down but what’s normally a one hour line stretches a quarter way across the park.”
Who cares about how (physically) long the line is? If it’s a 15 minute wait, that’s what matters to me–not how long the line looks.
We actually prefer these longer stretched out lines as opposed to the traditional “fill in every available space” way of packing people in. Most lines are constantly moving which I like better than standing in one place too long and I like having more room. It makes the wait not seem so much like a wait.
I didn’t think Disney has changed any of the rules in the period Tom is talking about, back when crowds were 40% or so higher.
Right?!? Masks are absolutely a game changer for so many people. It’s one thing to play along when I go to the grocery store, it’s quite another to PAY thousands of dollars for the experience of suffocating all day. No, thanks, our family chose to spend a month at the beach instead.
It’s not just the masks, though. WDW is essentially offering half the value for the same outrageous prices they’ve been able to get away with pre-Covid. I would think most people are smart enough to spend their hard earned money where they’ll get more value…
This article and the other article from today (Quarantine Rules for Disney World Travelers) could not be more apropos to the WDW vacation we are planning in April. We are coming from NY to WDW for the week of Easter. I am hoping travel restrictions are lightened a little by then, but if not we will deal with it. And I am also hoping the crowds don’t skyrocket, but if they do we will deal with that too. Fingers crossed on both!!
This looks good for our three night trip starting tomorrow.
Well Tom Here is that million dollar question!!!!!!
Will Disney try and raise ticket prices this year as they always do the 1st quarter???
I would not think so with the reduced offerings at the parks and smaller crowds as of now but they have been doing some crazy stuff…
They’ve made it so much easier to conceal ticket price increases with the date-based calendar, so that would “help” them raise prices without the normal negative coverage and backlash.
Even with that said, I doubt it’ll happen in February. Now, this fall? Totally different story.
I think David is correct. I think if Disney does a discernible early 2021 ticket price increase, it may show us that canceling the Magical Express was as much about being out of touch with the guest experience as it was about making a tactical financial calculation.
I was thinking they might not raise our military ticket prices but they have. Universal on the other hand dropped them AND made the tickets good for the entire year (like an AP pass)! That is HUGE!
Tom, you mentioned the crowds being not too bad this past holiday weekend . . . does this sway your initial thoughts about Valentine’s weekend coming up?
That’s not an actual holiday in any case… Even MLKJ Day wasn’t bad at all!
Mrnico, I shortened it because I didn’t feel like writing out Valentine’s Day/Presidents’ Day/lunar new year/start to Mardi Gras. . . Tom talked about this weekend being one of The Worst to visit. Just wondering if he felt the same after MLK.
I still think that long weekend (and ensuing week) will be bad, but it’s very much dependent upon what the Louisiana contingent ends up doing now that Mardi Gras events are largely cancelled there.
Will they descend upon WDW en masse? My bet is that they will.
Okay Hilde, I see what you mean. Much longer term than the one week! It’ll be interesting to see for sure. I can tell you that the low crowds and short lines were amazing last week. Combined with damn near perfect weather (rain only on one day, our last one!) and mid-70s temps, even wearing a mask wasn’t as bad.
One side benefit wearing masks is that it makes it even more fun to mess with kids in the parks. When you’re walking along and they run out in front of you and you growl or roar at them, it’s even more fun! Everybody laughs and all have fun. At AK there was a little boy dressed like a lion, and he turned and roared back at us and raised his claws. Masks aren’t completely bad.
We’re going the week of Valentine’s Day and I really really hope it isn’t going to be as bad as you say!
Plan for it to be bad and be pleasantly surprised if it’s not. Having an efficient itinerary, arriving early and staying late is just as important (if not more so) than choosing the “right” dates. I’m sure you’ll still have a blast! 🙂
“Plan for it to be bad and be pleasantly surprised if it’s not.”
Hell Tom, that’s been the best advice for the last 4 years or so!
We visited for 2 days post New Years and it was still pretty darn crowded from the holidays. We are planning to go back over Spring Break (last week of March) – any predictions on crowd size then? I’m assuming it’ll be pretty close to what we experienced the first week of January…?
Two days post New Year’s would put you in the purple line–the heaviest crowds thus far of reopening.
Spring Break is a real wildcard this year. Many schools have already cancelled it, but not all of them. My guess is that it’ll be worse than right now, but not nearly as bad as the holidays. It also helps that Walt Disney World has continued to improve ride efficiency, so even if attendance is exactly the same, wait times should be lower.
Thanks we were there January 5th/6th and definitely was more crowded than we had planned but we still enjoyed ourselves. I’m honestly just hoping that Spring Break isn’t worse!! I didn’t realize that some spring breaks have been cancelled across the country…I guess that could help out with lower crowds for sure!
We were dreading a walk-through of the pre-show elements at ROTR as others had reported, but nope, it was all good! On Sat, we did get hung up in the cargo bay trooper area for 20 minutes or so but did get to ride so that’s good. FINALLY got to stand right next to Lt Bekk!
As a yearly Disney visitor for nearly 25+ years I find myself questioning returning with all the takeaway recently announced. I think the Magical Express was the straw. The airport and the luggage are a real problem for us. The Magical Express made us feel somewhat special as our vacation started there.
We offen questioned the price vs. value and now that has been limited.
Wayne
We’re due to go in April – I’d say we’re about 80/20 for going right now, up from 50/50 if you had asked me two months ago. I (selfishly) hope the crowds continue to stay away for a little bit longer. Planning this trip has been nearly impossible due to all the outside “real world” factors.
Hi, I’ve been following your page for a year now when we planned a trip this past November-December. We ended up cancelling due to character experiences since we were taking our children for the first time. Do you believe Disney will start adding character dining back the way it was with autographs any time soon ?
do you think disney will have the fireworks show by may
“Do you believe Disney will start adding character dining back the way it was with autographs any time soon ?”
My guess is that will be among the last things to return. I have no clue as to a timeline, though–probably towards this holiday season or early 2022.
“data scrapping error”…
I think you mean data scraping. Though you should feel free to just send it all to the bit bucket if that’s how you roll.
Thanks for the great analysis.
Lol, thanks for the heads up on the typo!