Disney World Increases Attendance Limit; Mask Relaxation “Very Big News”
Walt Disney Company reported its second quarter earnings on an investor call. We’ve already covered the numbers there in Disney Parks Lose $967 Million, But Demand Grows. If you’re curious about Disney+ subscribers stats or whether EPS beat projections, check that out.
In this post, we’re going to discuss the “juicier” topics that have real world implications for those planning Walt Disney World or Disneyland vacations. Namely, attendance limits capacity, Disney Park Pass reservations, and health safety protocol at Walt Disney World and Disneyland.
The updates on these fronts all came during the investor question and answer portion of Disney’s earnings call, during which Disney CEO Bob Chapek and CFO Christine McCarthy tackled a range of topics. Some of their responses are of particular relevance and interest for anyone planning a summer vacation to Walt Disney World…
The first question inquired as to whether there was “any color” Chapek could provide on how when it would be okay to start raising capacity at Walt Disney World. In response, Chapek stated that Walt Disney World has already started to raise capacity caps based on past guidance from both the CDC and Florida ending of all emergency orders.
It’s not a huge surprise that Walt Disney World has already started to increase capacity. There have been numerous reports of crowd levels increasing around Mother’s Day weekend, and increased of Park Pass reservations would seem to corroborate those.
Moreover, just yesterday Walt Disney World announced that physical distancing would be relaxed, stating that this would occur “across many areas with a gradual, phased approach” but also that “six-feet distancing measures will continue in all dining locations, merchandise stores and in areas where guests can temporarily remove their masks.”
It’s a given that Walt Disney World would distribute more Park Pass reservations as a result of this move. The only question is how quickly Disney would ramp up, and to what level. It’s likely going to be a gradual increase, with the parks operating at around 50% capacity by the start of summer. At some point, it’s likely that organic demand will be more of a limiting factor on attendance than the park capacity caps.
During the Q&A, Chapek was also asked how Walt Disney World would be able to scale up attendance given reports of heavy crowds already. In response, he stated “we don’t think we’re going to have any problem at all…that is not something that keeps any of us up at night.”
Continuing to address demand, he said: “So we’ve sort of got the perfect positive storm, if you will, where we’ve got plenty of demand, we’ve got really great yield management gains, and the cost management at the same time. In terms of labor, we had about 80% of our cast members return that we’ve asked to return. [We] continue to get more and more cast members back, it thrills us to be able to do that. We’ve had no problems whatsoever in terms of trying to get our cast to come back and make some magic for our guests.”
That’s actually a bit surprising, and also perhaps a bit misleading. I’m shocked that the return rate is 80% because that flies in the face of the rampant reports of hiring woes all around Central Florida, including at Walt Disney World.
In fact, we know that Disney accelerated the return of the College Program to Summer 2021 because of staffing shortages, has numerous job openings, and is actively advertising that its hiring in the Orlando market.
Much more noteworthy was Chapek’s statement that the CDC’s newly-released guidance ending face mask recommendations outdoors and in uncrowded indoor settings is “very big news” for Walt Disney World, “particularly if anybody’s been in Florida in the middle of the summer with a mask on. That could be quite daunting.”
Chapek expects this will make for an even more pleasant experience and that it’s going to be an even bigger catalyst for growth in attendance. Disney is “very, very excited about that.”
This is very interesting to us, and frankly a bit surprising. As you might recall, Chapek was asked similar questions during the last earnings call.
In response, he stated that Disney has no doubt that parks will have “some level” of physical distancing and mask-wearing for the remainder of 2021. However, he also said that Disney views vaccines as a “game-changer.”
At that time, most other sites and Disney fans emphasized the “remainder of 2021” part of Chapek’s quote, citing it as “proof” that face masks would be in place at Walt Disney World until 2022.
We disagreed, emphasizing the some level and game-changer parts. In parsing Chapek’s words, it appeared to us that Disney was laying the groundwork for changing its approach to health safety protocol so rules can be relaxed on an earlier timeline. We’ve since reiterated and double-downed on that in several posts, even as many readers have criticized us for being too bold and optimistic in our predictions.
I would take a victory lap here, but I’m honestly not entirely sure what Chapek’s quote means because his answer intertwines attendance limits and Disney’s face mask rule.
It sure sounds like he’s suggesting that Walt Disney World will be relaxing its face mask rule based upon the CDC guidance, and saying that’ll be a relief for anyone who has been to Florida in the summer. However, it was an off the cuff, non-binding statement that also related to attendance limits.
To be 100% clear, I’m not suddenly pessimistic about a relaxation to Walt Disney World’s face mask rules. If anything, I’m slightly more optimistic than I was before the call started. However, I’ve been pretty bullish for the last several months and this is more or less consistent with what I’ve expected since even prior to the last earning’s call.
In my view, the newly-released CDC guidance is the big news story of the day. It’s worth pointing out that the CDC press conference ended shortly before this earnings call began, meaning it’s entirely possible that Disney’s health team has not yet fully assessed and briefed Chapek on the implications and how Walt Disney World and Disneyland should proceed.
Trying to reconcile the new CDC guidance with Chapek’s statements, I think the most likely scenario is Walt Disney World relaxing the outdoor mask policy for everyone at or around the start of the summer tourist season.
As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, Walt Disney World cannot and will not enforce a policy that distinguishes between vaccinated and unvaccinated guests. Even setting aside the contentious vaccine passport debate, it would simply be overly burdensome for frontline Cast Members, who are already being asked to do too much.
More likely, Walt Disney World will continue requiring masks indoors while shifting from a rule to a recommendation outdoors, perhaps with some verbiage encouraging or “requiring” the unvaccinated to continuing wearing a mask for their safety and that of other guests. If it’s a requirement (air quotes), it’s likely that Disney would take a hands-off approach enforcement.
In our view, this would comport with the overwhelming body of scientific evidence about transmission as well as guest expectations. It would also mesh with the practical realities of wearing a mask during summer in Florida being “daunting,” as a certain CEO put it. Being able to take mask-less photos is already a huge win, and not having to wear them in the heat and humidity outdoors would be another.
Ultimately, I view both today’s new CDC guidance and Chapek’s answers to investor questions as very positive developments that should significantly accelerate Walt Disney World’s return to normalcy. I’m even more bullish than before, but also not taking his answers at face value. The how and when of any health safety protocol and rule relaxation remains to be seen.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Thoughts on Disney CEO Bob Chapek’s statements about face masks and attendance limits at Walt Disney World? Do you agree or disagree with him that it can be “quite daunting” to wear a mask in Florida during summertime? Do you think this signals that Walt Disney World has more plans to return to normal? Are you hoping that Disney follows the CDC’s lead, or keeps its mask rules in place longer? Please keep the comments civil. This is not the place for arguing about efficacy, politics, and so forth—all such comments will be deleted, irrespective of perspective. You are not going to change anyone’s mind via the comments section on this blog, nor are you going to change Disney’s rules or public policy. If you wish to contest this, rather than yelling into the internet abyss, have your voice heard in a meaningful way by contacting Disney or your local elected officials.
I think Disney is taking the approach of let the CDC recommend then they comply. I don’t see them getting ahead of them. But the CDC is seeing massing drops in Covid cases and like we Discussed yesterday if cases continue to fall at this pace masks will be gone by June/ outside and July totally at this rate. My opinion but I think it’s just Disney waiting on CDC to call it and it’s implemented soon after.
Like Tom, I feel very comfortable doing just about anything without a mask now that I’m vaccinated. I’m hopeful and ready to go maskless outdoors at WDW this August. But I also hope everyone exercises some empathy toward those who feel nervous by these developments, especially if they have children who can’t yet be vaccinated. It’s been a really difficult and scary year and it will take time for many to start to feel “normal” again even when the science, data, and statistics say they and their children are very safe. I feel we are all owed a very big and cuddly hug by Pooh when this is all truly over.
Totally agree.
I’ve noticed this odd movement to “shame” people who are still wearing masks outdoors (or wherever) despite the updated CDC guidance. Why on earth should anyone else care if someone continues to wear a mask? My general view is that others’ decisions that don’t impact me are none of my business. The last year has been rough and traumatic enough; we can extend a little courtesy and compassion as everyone’s circumstances and comfort levels are different.
It’s only right that if capacity is increased, then more rides and attractions should be opened up; ultimately giving folks more places to be and more spread out. I wish someone would realize this simple fact! Bring back our behoved shows already!
Do you think that this means the dining plan, fast passes, and more shows like The Beauty and the Beast, and the Little Mermaid will open by November or Early December? How about fireworks and parades? Thanks in advance!
I think there’s a 90% chance of one fireworks show being back by mid-July 2021 (or earlier). I think there’s about a 50% chance of two fireworks shows being back by that time.
Everything else is unclear–dependent upon demand, staffing, and how quickly Disney can make changes and bring things back.
So at minimum I hope they’ll drop the outdoor masks for everyone– at least everyone would benefit from that– since no distinction can be made, masks would just be the norm indoors
Yeah, I think that sounds about right. Just a matter of timing at this point, it would seem.
I feel this is absolutely where Disney is going! First no masks outdoors and by fall they’ll just be gone or “suggested”. A huge win!!! I agree they will likely say “if unvaccinated we highly suggest you wear one…” but at this stage if someone is worried, they can get the vaccine. If you’ve got at risk family members or kids, you obviously need to do what you feel is best. But Disney needs to make money and based on the lack of compliance I’ve seen the last few months, most people are done with masks, so masks need to go in order for them to make money. I’m very excited for masks to go away!!
They need to reopen everything and if you are scared stay home!
Post reopening, Disney was considered a top spot for a safe vacation. Public opinion is shifting away from that. Yes demand is growing, but now many who go do so ‘despite the masks.” That’s a powerful, if subtle, shift. I really feel like we are close to the threshold of meaningful changes.
100% agree.
Disney has access to exceptional market research and analytics. When the parks reopened, the overwhelming majority of the population was not traveling and feared going to theme parks. Disney allayed those concerns. Now, the circumstances are very different.
These rules have always been a hybrid health safety and business decision. That will continue to remain true as public sentiment shifts.
What happens on May 15?
Sorry, I’m not sure what you’re referencing. Can you clarify?
Any news on when kids can take photos with characters?!
All great news. Thanks for keeping us informed up to the minute Tom. Your blogs help me feel so positive, upbeat and ahead of the curve. Your blog and doing volunteer work has kept me sane throughout the pandemic. These two things have also kept me from ever feeling afraid or alone. I really don’t know how people who lived in fear ever survived. Sadly I’ve met way more folks like that than not.
Thanks for the kind words!
I don’t fault people for being fearful–I don’t know what they experienced in the last year, and everyone’s trauma is different. For some, it’s nonexistent. For others, it’s extreme. I just hope that with each passing day, more and more people become optimistic as there’s every reason for that right now!
This is great news. My husband and I are fully vaccinated and have a 10 day mid June trip all set for us and our two kids. We would not have purchased the Memory Maker if there was still the masked photo rule. We have taken our kids twice so far in the past few years and can’t wait for our upcoming vacation. We are staying at Beach Club and hope the Cape May character breakfast returns soon. Probably not by mid June but maybe we will have to schedule a January 2022 vacation. Tom, what is your crowd prediction for January 2022?
What percentage of the rides are not operating at 100% capacity in your estimation? Do you think this news will affect ride efficiency?
I can’t think of a single ride operating at 100% efficiency right now. Roller coasters are the closest since they’re seating every row and those have side-by-side seating, but they’re still not mixing parties. That means a lot of individual seats are going empty on those. Still, they’re probably at 80% or above, which isn’t too shabby.
Attractions with the worst efficiency right now are theaters of any sort. Those are still below 50%. Boat rides with wider rows like Pirates of the Caribbean and Living with the Land also aren’t doing so hot.
All you people complaining about not wanting the mask rule to be dropped need to stay at home and be miserable. If people want to get vaccinated they can very easily.
The quote about 80% of people who have been asked to return actually returning is interesting phrasing. I’d like to know what percentage of cast members were actually asked to return. We know they didn’t ask the international workers or college students, for example, and based on my visit there last week I would have to guess most resort, restaurant, or entertainment cast members were also not asked either.
i too was confused by chapek being suddenly excited regarding masks. because there’s no way disney is going to have the vaxxed/nonvaxxed classifications in park by way of providing proof, and there’s no way on earth humans can be trusted with the honor system to wear or not wear one based on vaccination status. i’m really not sure it was prudent for him to address it period right at this moment.
Breathing a deep sigh of relief. This is very good news!
Tom, thanks for being so quick to get this news out to us. I missed the most important part of the call and was left wondering what happened.
Keep being awesome.
So no one asked for, and Chapek did not provide, any metrics relating to the relaxation of the health & safety rules? I was hoping there’d be a clearer timeline for when things will be more normal. (I have a trip booked in October and hoping the mask rules are only a recommendation by then.)
I hoped he would offer it, but am not surprised no one asked. This is an investor’s call–their focus is $$$$
Go to the Disneyland reservation calendar and look what happens starting the 15th lol
What I found interesting:
Demand is “flat” compared to 2019: This is an earnings call, he needs to be accurate. So I read that to mean that demand for summer 2021 is indeed already very similar to demand for summer 2019.
Yet– several resorts remain closed, lots of restaurants remain closed.
He tried to put a positive spin on the labor situation by saying “80% of cast members asked to return, have returned” — But that points to 20% of those asked to return, not returning.
There could be some painful operations over the summer with “normal” demand but operations that are still reduced due to labor issues (and cost cutting).