Disney World Park Pass Update & Crowd Forecast: September & October 2020
Walt Disney World has once again reallocated Park Pass theme park reservations for the months of September and October 2020. The result is once again more good news for Annual Passholder, as most dates in both months are now available. We’ll take a look at the changes and offer some additional commentary about all of that and other AP areas of interest.
We’ve been monitoring Disney Park Pass availability since the reservation system went live in June. It’s now been live for over two months, and the system is a tale of two timeframes here. The first is prior to the Annual Pass cancellation deadline a couple of weeks ago. During the course of that month-plus, there were only 2 inventory reallocations to Annual Passholders, resulting in slim pickings aside from random cancellations for most of July through mid-August.
Then there has been the couple of weeks since the Annual Pass cancellation deadline, during which there have been 4 inventory reallocations. Two of those times, availability has been fully replenished. If this trend continues, Annual Passholders with good timing will likely be able to visit pretty much whenever in the next couple of months. A sharp contrast to the prospect of not being able to go without booking several weeks (or nearly two months, in the case of weekends at Disney’s Hollywood Studios) in advance, faced prior to the cancellation deadline…
We’re not suggesting that this feet-dragging on Park Pass inventory reallocations was a deliberate move by Walt Disney World to actively encourage more Annual Pass cancellations. More likely, it was coincidental–but very unfortunate–timing. As we’ve noted, Disney has been scrambling to make adjustments on the fly as circumstances change or they learn about the harsh realities of operating amidst this temporary abnormal.
Despite the significantly reduced park capacity, it does not behoove Walt Disney World to further cull the herd of Annual Passholders. For one, that’s happening on its own due to a variety of other factors unrelated to Park Pass availability. The economy, reduced offerings, new rules, and more all resulted in a flurry of AP cancellations.
For another thing, there’s no opportunity cost to Annual Passholders attending the parks right now. While it’s undeniable that average per guest spending is higher among tourists than APs (this isn’t up for debate–Disney has stated as much), Annual Passholders are still better than nothing. That’s the real alternative most dates right now.
We suspect the miscalculation Walt Disney World made early-on was that tourists would continue traveling to Florida, and Disney would want to prioritize filling the limited capacity parks with these (on average) more lucrative guests. As such, there was no immediate harm in AP cancellations. The weeks since have been a slow pivot as the realities of current visitation trends and guest demographics have set in for Disney.
Of course, our perspective here is colored by our own biases. We’ve been expressing fears for months now that Walt Disney World leaders might be blinded by their own past successes, resulting in unrealistic expectations about their recovery. There was about a decade run during which Disney enjoyed unmitigated prosperity, often in spite of blunders. No matter what decisions they made or high much prices increased, so too did attendance. That era ended in March.
There’s no reason to believe Walt Disney World will be any less reliant upon locals and Annual Passholders in the coming months (pretty much any time now through next Easter/Spring Break aside from holiday vacations). One thing Disney had done an undeniably superlative job at was filling the off-season with crowds thanks to conventions, special events, youth sport tournaments, and more.
Additionally, Disney had done well at marketing to and attracting international guests during their own peak travel seasons. All of those events and types of guests are gone for the foreseeable future.
It’ll be interesting to see how quickly Walt Disney World adapts to this, and finds ways to adjust to the new climate. Thus far, changes have been slow-going. But I digress–the Disney Park Pass availability updates…
Availability was replenished for the entirety of September and October, including Labor Day weekend. This is noteworthy because it is not simply an inventory reallocation for some of these dates–there was no inventory in the resort guest or theme park ticket guest buckets from which to pull for these dates.
If you have flexibility in your plans, we’d highly recommend avoiding the parks over Labor Day weekend. It’s going to be the first real test of the reduced capacity parks, and will be significantly more crowded than any other date since reopening thus far. This is not theoretical–those dates will be crowded. Our expectation is that crowds from September 5-7 will be around double the levels of crowds from September 8-10.
The good news is that pretty much the rest of September and October shouldn’t be too bad. That’s even with more Annual Passholders being in the parks than in July and August. We would expect a spike on weekends and a slight spike overall due to Walt Disney World’s Announcement of Halloween at Magic Kingdom, but not much else.
That announcement came so late that it’s not going to result in a significant number of tourists booking trips–it’s only going to move the needle among locals. Even if more Floridians visit, there’s still no shortage of “available space” in Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, and Epcot on weekdays and most weekends. Filling unused capacity with slightly more locals shouldn’t be much of an issue–especially if they’re spending disproportionate time on Main Street, shopping, and snacking.
Aside from Labor Day weekend, the next couple of months should be pretty slow at Walt Disney World. Again, there will be an increase in Annual Passholders who were, in some cases, arbitrarily shut out in July and August even when crowds were otherwise low.
However, this is naturally Florida’s off-season, something that has long been evident in September at Walt Disney World (not even the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge could change that last year). Of late, October has been busier, but it’s also been buoyed by special events and school breaks, almost all of which are not happening as normal this year.
In other words, there will be more locals (disproportionately on weekends) but fewer tourists as compared to the summer months. Expect most of the same trends to continue, with only Disney’s Hollywood Studios coming close to hitting its reduced capacity cap.
The other parks are still ghost towns, with some weekends being 2/10 in terms of crowds. That might bump up to 3/10 in the next two months. Most weekdays are around 1/10. That should stay the same, if not trend downwards. The last two hours of the day will still be particularly light. The biggest change is likely to be the ‘feels like’ crowds at Magic Kingdom increasing on weekends.
We would strongly recommend booking Disney Park Pass reservations ASAP if you’re an Annual Passholder. It’s unclear how much inventory Walt Disney World has released into the AP “bucket” of Park Pass reservations, and for some of these dates, it’s probably not much. We are monitoring closely for Park Pass availability—if you want notification when the next inventory dump happens, sign up to receive our FREE Walt Disney World Email Newsletter.
It’s also worth noting that this is another one-off redistribution (or replenishment, in the case of Labor Day), not the introduction of a dynamic system. Eventually, we still hope/think that Walt Disney World will figure things out and start reallocating surplus Disney Park Pass availability to the Annual Passholder bucket around 24-48 hours before the date in question on a rolling basis.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think crowds will be like Labor Day weekend? The rest of September and October? Have any luck scoring Disney Park Pass reservations with this new inventory dump? Are you still an Annual Passholder? What’s your take on the Park Pass fiasco? If you didn’t cancel your Annual Pass due to the lack of Park Pass availability, are you glad you stuck it out now? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Question for Tom or anyone who tries to predict crowd levels… Have you ever used dining reservation availability (via the Disney world app or website) to predict crowd levels? For example, I’m looking at Hollywood Studios for a Tuesday visit… no dining availability for a Tuesday visit, but plenty of availability on Wednesday and Thursday of the same week. Thoughts?
No, not really.
Historically, dining availability is a terrible proxy for crowds. A good example of this happens in a normal September, with Free Dining. ADRs are hard to come by, but the reality is that crowds are really low. Beyond that, glitches in Disney’s system or tables randomly being unavailable can happen.
I am a travel agent, in response to the above comment about ask a travel agent- the answer is none. I have no new bookings this year. I do have a few families that like my own, would travel anywhere anytime without hesitation (I just got back from Mexico last week)- but, that is definitely not the norm. I too am looking at taking my family for Fall Break (October 15-24), but really only want to go if we have Ghost Town level crowds. My son with autism will be unable to join us on this trip due to the mask mandate, and so I want it to be a once in a lifetime trip for my other kids since we will not be dealing with our usual special needs struggles. If we are waiting in long lines it will totally defeat the purpose and hopes for the trip.
My family and I are thinking about getting annual passes and attending the week of Thanksgiving and also the week after Christmas this year. What are your thoughts on crowds and whether this would be a good time to go, we have never been when the Christmas decorations are up.
They are not selling annual passes right now.
Hi everyone! I have a question similar to everyone else about crowd levels. I’m going sept 13—17. We usually go once a year so we are just going this year to enjoy the low crowds- but I want to be fairly confident the crowds are going to be low! I’m a type 1 diabetic and sound like a crazy person telling people that I’m even thinking about going! â€â™€ï¸ But from what I’ve seen online no one is there and I can social distance without a problem. I plan to bring wipes and do a quick wipe down as we’re getting in a ride and we’re driving so I don’t need to worry about airplanes. So basically my two questions are do y’all think the crowds will still be low? And has there been covid cases linked to Disney world? I know people that are a symptomatic will be there obviously but I can’t find anything online that numbers spiked or anything like that when Disney opened back up? I’m just getting there protocol information. Thanks so much in advance!
So far, no COVID cases have been linked to WDW. There have been people who have tested positive after spending a week there, but those cases have not been linked to other people who were there at the same time.
I, too, am a Type 1 Diabetic, and we’re headed to Orlando in a couple of weeks. People think I’m crazy as well. We feel like Disney is doing a very good job at keeping its guests and cast members safe, and we might as well go while crowds are really low, since we have a feeling this pandemic will be here for quite some time and Disney might start increasing capacity in the parks before too long.
As for using disinfecting wipes on rides, I’d say that is just a waste of wipes. Just wash your hands (or use sanitizer, although washing with soap is better) after getting off a ride. COVID has proveN itself to be far more an airborne contagion than one spread through surface contact, so save your wipes for places where you’ll be in contact with food and just wash your hands after getting off a ride. You’ll never be able to disinfect every surface you’ll touch during the day, anyway, no matter how careful you’re being.
Any news on when/if annual passes for 2020 year will be sold? We have been trying to upgrade our 3 year old’s 7 day pass to an annual pass since February. They told us in February it would have to be done in person, so we were planning on doing it during our may 2020 trip. That was postponed due to covid and now we have a trip the last week of October and a week in april 2020. I hate to pay for another 7 day ticket when it could just be upgraded to an annual pass. We are so frustrated. My husband and I are both annual passholders.
I hope that disney will allow florida residents to purchase passes again. We canceled and are now regretting.
Any clue what the reduced capacity is in each park? I’ve seen some percentages thrown around, but nothing consistent.
AP Platinum cardholders/DVC…….renewed but not activated because WDW closed the day we arrived in March….phew! So it’s good until 2031 inactivated! We’ve already cancelled two trips…one for Sept. (BLT) & one in December (AK). We are snowbirds & spend 4-6 weeks in the Disney area every year. ..in Feb/March/April…….if we can’t use our AP the way it should be used….in and out any parks any day as many times as we want we will not go. So, the outlook is bleak and we may be skiing again this winter in our state!!
Question for Tom, one thing you don’t ever seem to mention, and I’m trying to make sense of from Disney’s perspective. If attendance is so bad that they are letting in more less profitable AP holders , why on earth wouldn’t they incentivize travelers with hotel/package discounts ? It just makes no sense at all. I would book November tomorrow if I didn’t have to pay full price (which I have NEVER done even during the most successful years Disney has had) . No way in hell im paying Rack rate with the lesser experience
Not Tom, of course. My theory on this is that Disney is worried about bad PR if the virus rate goes up again. They took heat when the rate spiked in July. They’re likely nervous about the predicted Fall spike.
What you say makes sense except for one thing, then why are they limiting AP holders while still leaving all of the Resort Stay availability open as far as the eye can see?
Disney WANTS crowds low right now. A super-spreader event linked to a Disney park would be a disaster. They’re also still working at refining park operations, so they’ll work at finding better ways to handle the different groups when they feel they’re ready for more people in the parks.
I’m a passholder, so I’m not exactly happy about the limitations on AP Park Pass reservations, but I completely understand the need to limit crowds. It’s not like Disney – or anybody – has ever done this before. It takes time to get things working smoothly when it comes to ensuring proper social distancing is throughout the parks.
We’re going Oct 3-10 and our 4 Park Reservations are for weekdays only (M-T-Th-F). We are very much OK with crowds being a 1/10 — this is a rescheduled trip from Easter. We booked our plane tickets in late May (were very optimistic) with airline credits from April, and since we’re staying at our own timeshare outside the Parks, that was an easy re-booking too.
Only disappointment will be some of the ADR as we had to give up our Be Our Guest lunch (not paying $62 pp for lunch) and a couple of other locations (no meals in EPCOT France Pavilion) because either those locations are still closed, or the menu is so limited, there is nothing for us to eat worth those prices. Then, STRIKE THREE — early Park closures, so three dinner venues were canceled and replaced with one dinner on International Drive, and the other two at Disney Springs!
I am confused. I thought Poly was closed but when I went on Dave’s DVC website it shows Polly avail with a few dates left in August and a good bit for Sept. if I book through them in the next week or so, will I have any issues getting park reservations?
The Poly Villas are and have been open, just not the hotel side. Use the park pass calendar. It’s likely wide open for resort guests.
Lisa – If you’re booking an existing reservation just remember to book soon enough to give them 1-3 days for the owner to switch everything over to you. You can’t make park reservations as a resort guest until the resort reservation is in your name.
Thanks for all of the great info! I’m going to be at Disney 9/4-9/7. It’ll be interesting to see the difference in crowds since opening week. If the parks are crowded I’m happy to just spend time at the resort. Question: I thought I read in one of your posts that you thought room upgrades would be less likely with online check in. Did I imagine that and if not, do you still think that is true?
How well are the buses running (e.g., Poly to Hollywood, Riviera to AK)?
Flight availability in October is now more limited and expensive since Southwest reduced inventory by half. For me a roundtrip went from $99 to $500+ in a day but I don’t think that many more people aren’t ultimately heading to Orlando. I haven’t tried any dining ressies but booked a Christmas room at Boardwalk just recently. Last year I was refreshing at 7 months on the dot.
Thanks, Tom! Great update. Really, really appreciate you covering all these changes.
Just an observation to add. I hang out on the dis boards periodically and many of the renters are reporting no availability in most DVC properties for studios or 1 bdrms throughout the middle of Sept into Oct. Is it possible that this means an increase of visitors, or is Disney just not releasing rooms?
I just did a search, and there’s a ton of studio availability for September and October at most DVC resorts.
In a normal year, there would be next to nothing–maybe a scattering of rooms at Saratoga and OKW.
Looking at David’s Vacation Club page for Dedicated Vacation Rentals for the month of October there seems to be no shortage of studio and one bedroom rentals available.
Some are discounted.
Has Disney (WDW) only stopped selling *new* annual passes (thus allowing current APs to renew) or have all AP sales (new and renewal) ceased?
For clarity, we are Platinum Plus passholders, if that matters.
When I called to cancel my AP on August 9, the CM offered me a renewal, but I didn’t take it.
We are Disneyland AP’s and have no option to renew.
If Mr. Eisner was still around, free dining would be happening now. The newer leadership group at DIS is very wishy-washy, very wait-and-see, very weak.
I think Disney doesn’t want any bad PR for advertising a discount meant to increase park attendance during a pandemic. I agree with you, but it has to be a difficult thing to navigate.
Just returned from 3 days there. Not enough dining venues are open. Can’t see free dining packages working, free or paid for.
How do you think the last week to September will be? I’m getting worried about increased capacity.
We have hotel/park reservations for the week of October 11th. We are still trying to decide whether to make the trip. I’m getting nervous about crowds especially when I’m trying to make dining reservations and can find NO availability for dinner at the majority of open restaurants on many days of that week. Do you think more reservations will open up? More restaurants by October?
Sir/Ma’am, if you are very concerned about crowd levels, ADR’S, etc, (if this is ANY sort of “dream trip”, or anything other than a very routine visit) may I respectfully opine this may not be the best time to visit.
I have a trip planned that same week, which is fall break for our schools. I respectfully disagree with Tom’s assessment about low crowds in Oct because I think he has not given enough consideration to the fall school break crowds.
Based on local flight availability, dining res info as PP mentioned, Disney hotel availability (calls with GS multiple times about my res), and Touring Plans predictions, I do anticipate some days that week to be “busy” compared to Sept. Just how busy that is based on the new standards remains to be seen. Unfortunately, it’s going to be almost impossible to predict the crowds for that week before our cancellation deadlines because it is at the start of school fall breaks. We will not have fall break crowd data to rely on prior to our required cancellation dates.
I am not worried about the crowds related to the spread of virus. If I were worried about that, I wouldn’t go. However, I am concerned about paying full price for a lesser experience and then standing in long wait lines. The ONLY reason I am willing to fork out the money for the lesser experience is the low wait times. To me, 45 minutes+ for the big rides is not worth full price right now. That will be the deal breaker. If Labor Day is a mad house, I will likely switch to Universal for that week and stay onsite for Express pass (and save money).
Fall school breaks are a wildcard…but how many of those are actually happening? And even if they do, to what extent will travel occur given quarantine rules, safety concerns, etc?
I guess we’ll see.
Most of the country is unwilling to travel at this point. Ask your nearest travel agent how many bookings they have compared to last year…
Also, Disney has closed nine resorts indefinitely, and for a reason.
I am in the same place. I am there the week of the 10th of Oct for fall break as well. I am also concerned everytime I hear about more APs. Like DJ the only reason I am willing to pay full price is extremely low crowds. I am willing to trade deals and extras for the low wait times and lots of breathing room. The more they add APs the less willing I am to travel there. The statement that there is no Opportunity Cost to adding APs is just short-sighted. They may buy some snacks but more of them drive away people paying new money for admission, buying the whole experience because they are not there every week or month, and paying full price for hotels. I think the idea that people are willing to still wait 45 to 60 min for rides in this economy, a pandemic, limited experience, and full price seems unlikely. That “well it is Disney” attitude is probably not so strong right now. I am keeping an eye on wait times.
Most colleges are not having a fall break this year. My son’s university is holding classes straight through to Thanksgiving. After Thanksgiving they are not returning on campus but will take exams remotely. This is to discourage students traveling and returning to campus.
How much do you think the Halloween decorations will affect the crowds at MK the first week they’re up?
Following…we previously planned MK for what is now opening day for fall decorations!