Disney World’s Lowest Crowd Week of the Last Year
A couple of weeks ago, we published Autumn Off-Season Arrives Early at Walt Disney World. That took a look at lower than normal wait times and crowds for the first half of the month, offering theories as to why the slowdown was occurring prior to most schools going back into session.
Despite the data, many Walt Disney World fans disputed that analysis. Some recent visitors contended that crowds were still bad or above average. Of course, if compared to August 2010 or even August 2020, they would technically be right. However, Walt Disney World attendance has increased by millions of guests per year over the last decade–with the very noteworthy exception of last year. It all depends upon your frame of reference, we guess.
With two more weeks or wait time data and experiences at Walt Disney World, we have seen this trend continue. Numbers have plummeted even further. In fact, in the last full week of August 2021, Walt Disney World not only had its lowest wait times of the year–but the lowest since the exact same week last year…
Now, some might view that as “evidence” that crowd levels are normal for this time of year. After all, the same week in two consecutive months of August had almost identical wait times. However, I think (or at least hope) we can all agree that August of last year was an anomaly.
Walt Disney World had just reopened, Florida’s case numbers were elevated, travel trepidations were off the charts, and it was primarily locals, plus some diehard out of state Annual Passholders and a scattering of DVC members visiting the parks. Only a few hotels were open, and they were all operating at incredibly low occupancy. As word got out that the parks were veritable ghost towns and more people became comfortable traveling, attendance gradually increased through the remainder of the year.
Fast forward a year, and the circumstances are very different–even if some sound eerily familiar. The best illustration of that–for anyone who wants to compare year-over-year wait times for whatever reason–is comparing last July to this July…
The average wait time during the last full week of August 2020 was 18 minutes and the average wait time last week was also 18 minutes. By contrast, the average wait times across all of Walt Disney World during the last week of July 2021 was 43 minutes. The exact same week in July 2020 saw an average wait time of 15 minutes.
That should help contextualize the average wait times this week v. the last week of August 2020. For more, let’s take a look at park by park wait times with some graphs courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.
We’ll once again begin with Magic Kingdom, which had an average wait time of 18 minutes.
Exactly one month ago, the park had an average wait time of 50 minutes. That’s when we did our most recent Magic Kingdom Rope Drop Report: Busiest Day of Year at Park Opening. That is thankfully “obsolete” (for now), and we’ve already updated our 1-Day Magic Kingdom Itinerary to account for the dramatic decrease in crowds.
Going attraction by attraction, the wait times at even the Magic Kingdom headliners aren’t bad.
Top averages were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at 50 minutes, Jungle Cruise at 40 minutes, Peter Pan’s Flight at 37 minutes, Astro Orbiter at 33 minutes, and Splash Mountain at 29 minutes.
We visited Magic Kingdom today and during the middle of the day on a Sunday, wait times weren’t even this bad.
The only attractions with significant waits were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Peter Pan’s Flight, and even those had shorter posted wait times and neither queue spilled outside the entrance. (We didn’t do either, but based on what I saw, I have a hard time believing the actual wait for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train was above 30 minutes.)
Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad all had 10 minute posted waits but were near walk-ons, the recently-completed Jungle Cruise had a 25 minute wait (actual wait of ~20 minutes), and the PeopleMover was also a walk-on.
If you told me one month ago that we could do three-quarters of the Magic Kingdom Mountain Range with no wait, I wouldn’t have believed it. Yet here we are.
Notice anything missing from the photo above?
The last time we saw this few strollers at Magic Kingdom, it was in the first couple of weeks post-reopening. Of course, this makes sense. Parents are understandably apprehensive about visiting right now, plus schools are back in session.
The slowdown is even more pronounced at Animal Kingdom. Above is a look at average daily rates (rather than weekly) to showcase just how much crowds have fallen off there.
The average wait time there on July 28 was 57 minutes. This week, averages have ranged from 11 minutes to 15 minutes.
Of course, average waits of 11-15 minutes means there will be attractions and times above and below those numbers.
If you visit during the last few hours of the day, you can really clean up right now at Animal Kingdom. There’s not enough to fill an entire day there, so most people park hop in the afternoon. This results in posted wait times like those above, and scenarios where Avatar Flight of Passage, Navi River Journey, Expedition Everest, and others are walk-ons.
Hollywood Studios is also seeing lower wait times.
The end-of-July average was 50 minutes. This week, the average wait times was 25 minutes. Further helping matters is that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance boarding groups were available after 1 pm every single day of the week.
We did Disney’s Hollywood Studios yesterday, and had a great experience.
At the end of the night, everything was a near walk-on. We did Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, Slinky Dog Dash, Tower of Terror, and Toy Story Mania all with virtually no waits. (Unfortunately, Rise of the Resistance had downtime and its queue was backed up towards the end of the night, but that’s its own thing.)
Last but not least, there’s Epcot.
Epcot had an average wait time of 13 minutes this past week versus 29 minutes at the end of July. We visited Epcot on a handful of evenings the last week-plus, and the “feels like” crowds (especially on weekends) were definitely higher than this. It would seem that the Epcot Food & Wine Festival is drawing out some locals.
In terms of explaining why these crowds are so low, our theories are more or less unchanged. Our first theory is that this slowdown was an inevitability. It’s the natural conclusion of pent-up demand exhausting itself as the summer travel season drew to a close. After scorching spring and summer travel seasons during which Americans made up for lost vacation time, people have gotten their fix and are now going back to school.
The more pronounced slowdown can be partially attributed to the lack of international visitors, conventions, and group events that would normally sustain the off-season after school starts going back into session. There have also been widespread flight cancellations that likely play a small part. Finally, even those school districts that haven’t yet gone back might have more stringent quarantine policies, leading to greater August attendance drop.
Another big component could be Walt Disney World fans who normally visit this time of year, but are postponing trips until October for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration. That thus makes this a “sweet spot” for crowds, and one that should continue until things pick back up during the last week of September.
Although we suspect that all of these explanations play a part in contributing to lighter than normal August crowds, they’re unlikely the primary causes of the precipitous crowd collapse.
As we’ve noted elsewhere, the primary causes of cancellations are likely Florida’s record case numbers and Walt Disney World’s reinstated indoor mask rule.
Whenever these two controversial topics come up, there’s often confirmation bias at play. We hear “if Disney just got rid of the mask rule, the parks would be packed!” from one group and “if Florida did X, Y, or Z, we’d feel safe visiting!” from another group. Regardless of how you personally feel about any of this, try to set that aside. Not everyone shares your opinion–different people are cancelling for different reasons.
In talking with travel agents and third party vendors we know, all have stated that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations driven by “current events” in a broad sense. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal and constrained to who we know, but the sample size of high-volume vendors is large enough that it’s likely close to accurate.
For what it’s worth, these cancellations don’t just impact August and September. They extend all the way through the end of the year. Even if/when Walt Disney World drops the indoor mask rule and Florida’s case numbers turn around, it’ll only make so much difference. At least in part, the damage is already done.
With that said, there are also some things we know are not the primary explanations for Walt Disney World’s slowdown, because we can control for those. Basically, anything that also existed in late July can be ruled out.
Weather is probably not a major cause of the drop-off. Yes, it’s miserable in Florida, but it has been “nicer” the last couple of weeks than it was in late July when the parks were packed. Rain and heat can impact wait times to a minor degree, but the only thing that significantly throws them off is hurricanes.
Another thing that is not an explanation is pricing, nickel & diming, or backlash at Genie+ and Lightning Lanes. Due to differences in seasonal pricing and discounts, it’s significantly less expensive to visit now than it was in July. Moreover, Genie+ and Lightning Lanes hadn’t even been announced when this slowdown began.
Many of you undoubtedly want to believe that attendance is dropping because fans are fed up with Walt Disney World’s pricing. Again, don’t let that cloud your judgment. If those changes and cutbacks are going to catch up with Walt Disney World and impact attendance, it’ll likely happen in 2022 at the earliest, and not any time in the immediate future. Right now, a similar slowdown is occurring at Universal Orlando, so any explanation that applies to one park operator but not the other is unlikely to be a main driver of the drop that both are experiencing.
Ultimately, this bodes well for those with Walt Disney World vacations planned for September 2021. With that said, our expectation is that the return of Annual Passes is announced very, very soon with those likely to go on sale shortly after Labor Day. That could result in a slight bump in terms of pent-up demand, but the continued decline of visits among tourists could more than offset the resumption of AP sales.
As previously discussed, this should give some “breathing room” to crowds from October to December 2021, too. However, that absolutely does not mean crowds will continue to be this low. We were previously forecasting that 3 month stretch to have Walt Disney World’s worst-ever crowds, so even a 15-25% pullback still means the parks will be incredibly busy. I don’t want anyone saying or thinking I promised low crowds due to the cancellations–it’s still going to be packed. Just probably not quite as packed.
We’re getting to the point where cancellations could outpace new bookings for the remainder of the year. There’s an average lag of approximately 5 months between booking and traveling. It’s an inevitability that Florida’s case numbers will dramatically decrease next month.
With that said, it’s possible that word will get out about low crowds, which could cause a slight bump in bookings for October and beyond (exactly what happened last year). It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but if you want to take advantage of low crowds, a last minute trip between now and September 26, 2021 might make sense.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you cancelled a trip to Walt Disney World in 2021? Have any anecdotes of your own about cancellations? Conversely, are you considering a last-minute trip in September to take advantage of the anticipated low crowds? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will hit record levels come October 2021, or will enough people cancellation to blunt the numbers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Heading down on Friday for a last minute trip! I hope the low crowds hold out even on a holiday weekend!
Hi Tom,
Thanks again for a great post (religiously read your blog).
Respectfully, I have a different viewpoint regarding the negative impact of Disney’s current prices on its attendance metrics which you might not have recently written about (or at least I didn’t see it really discussed in this article). Bottom Line: at its current price points, Disney might not offer a sufficient value proposition for vacationers with small children.
Disney is magical and special, and it always will be. However, is it “special” enough – particularly for families with small kids – to continue justifying paying 2, 3, 4 or even 5 times more than some of its competitors?
We have plans to visit and stay on WDW property early next year – for us, it is a rescheduling of a canceled trip from early 2021 when everything was still shut down.
While we could not go to WDW last year, we were able to go to Hershey Park. The kids loved it so much, they asked to go again this past summer, and we took them, again having an amazing time… for much less money than Disney would have cost us. My kids are WDW experts – we regularly watch videos of the rides and attractions and my 7 year old even knows very well the height requirements for each ride (a majorly important point for him) and has memorized large swaths of the park maps! I write all that to highlight that he will still sometimes confuse rides/attractions at Disney with those at Hershey – to a 7 year old, the experience at the two parks are just not THAT different.
This was educational and frankly eye-opening for me, as it forced me to wonder if the additionly costs of Disney are really worth the perceived added value versus some of its competitors.
A friend of mine with kids the same ages recently spent a week at Disney and they LOVED it…. For them, it was their first family trip to WDW. They also spent a day at Legoland and loved that too. After seeing their photos and videos, I am almost certainly going to cut a day from our upcoming WDW trip and spend it at Legoland – a theme park/resort I had barely heard of before – because it is substantially less expensive than Disney and for the kids seems just as great.
I have zero doubt that what you wrote about Disney being slightly less expensive than last year is 100% true (everything you write is!) However, it does not seem to adequately capture the trade-off of cost/value between Disney and its competitors, no? In short, I *do* suspect Disney ‘s prices are hurting its attendance – it did for me, at least, albeit just for one lost day…this time. Surely there are others in various states of economic recovery from the pandemic who also are planning to save some substantial $$$ at the expense of vacationing somewhere just slightly less ‘special’ than WDW?
I agree with a lot of what you’ve said, and think Disney’s value proposition has hurt it throughout the closure, and there will be a more pronounced impact once the initial rush of the 50th Anniversary is over.
What I’m saying is that this would not account for a sharp July to August drop-off. Prices are lower this month because it’s the off-season.
Regardless, good and thoughtful comment! 🙂
There’s another possible reason for the slow down, who knows to what degree, if any, it plays into things. Travel agents may be framing it as response to “current events”, but Disney has lost a ton of fans who value traditional morals and traditional family values. They have leaned too far politically left instead of staying in a neutral zone, and their current values don’t match the majority of America. Most people will ignore it for awhile, because I believe most people are tolerant of others. Most people are of the mindset “you do you”. But when the corporation takes a stance and you have an entire executive team whose sole purpose is to instill those values into your children (sometimes covertly) and combine it with COVID, higher pricing, etc, it will have an impact. . (Que the “hate responses”! Lol)
I don’t doubt that has turned some families off from Disney–but did anything happen between July and August in that regard that would’ve caused a month-to-month decline? From my understanding, most of Disney’s controversies there occurred this spring or earlier.
I get your perspective–but it’s a gradual thing that’ll be felt over time. Not quickly and sharply from one month to the next.
Enjoyed the parks last week. Super low crowds. More cast members in most stores than customers. Disney Springs was virtually dead. Walked right into Gideons! I’m Local but due to the park reservation system I only go to parks when I have out of town family or friends visiting due to possibly not being able to get park passes. Sure doesn’t seem fair to the local AP holders. But there’s plenty to do in Central Florida and I’ll just spend my money elsewhere. Just hanging out waiting for the next shoe to drop! Thanks Tom for all the wonderful reporting!
Tom when do you think you’ll be feeling the 50th celebration crowds in the parks? 26th? Or closer to the 1st?
I popped in for a day in early August (on a Saturday no less) while passing through town and could not believe how empty it was. Was taking pictures of main walkways with 1 or 2 people in the entire picture and sending them to my wife. My train on thunder mountain was only half full. It was rather bizarre but I attributed it to schools restarting and noone planning trips right before the 50 year anniversary. Did most every ride I wanted and was out of the park before noon.
I’m so bummed to read this. We were supposed to be leaving on 8/31 for a 5 Day trip. With a heavy heart We Cancelled. We’ve traveled to Disney from
Michigan in Dec of 2020 and then again in March of 2021.. since the littles can get vaccinated we
Decided to postpone.. knowing for sure when we go next, the crowd calendar won’t be anything like this. Right thing to do for us, but bummed reading this news. Thanks for keeping us informed
You missed another obvious reason: Disney World is still holding off on resuming annual pass sales. It’s beyond ridiculous at this point that they teased the return of them a month ago and still haven’t brought them back while the parks are so quiet.
People probably don’t want to masks. Can’t blame them.
I’m tentatively planning for early December 2021. What are your thoughts on crowds at that point? I recall a previous post you had that suggested early December was a good time to go, but here you mention it being “some of the worst crowds ever.”
I’m a bit stuck on whether to stick out our current plans or postpone until May 2022. I know you don’t have a crystal ball, but any guess as to which would be better (and how much better) from a crowd perspective?
Thank you for your concise information! I truly hope these low crowds continue as I will be there September 24-27. I check wait times daily!
Breaking my heart to read this! We had planned a trip for mid September but with the rise of delta, cancelled. (We are all vaccinated but our group included pregnant women and elderly folks that seem to be at higher risk with delta even if vaccinated.)
We would love to be there and experience the parks as described above! But going with head over heart for now.
Thanks for all of your great posts Tom- Love keeping up with your blog!
I was supposed to be at WDW this past week and kept checking the wait times, practically drooling at the thought of walking onto many rides. The reasons for cancelling even vary within my own extended family (all Canadians). I still am hopeful for a Christmas trip, but if we have to produce a Covid test to get back into Canada, either by land or air (and the land border is still closed for us), then I won’t hesitate to cancel. Worrying about testing positive would totally ruin the vacation aspect of a trip, as a Disney trip is all about packing my worries away and turning off my brain while we’re there. My brother always goes with us at Christmas but say he won’t this year, due to the politics in the state. Maybe next year.
Oh-I bet once a vaccine has been approved for the under 12s, there will stop being so many cancellations. From browsing Disney forums and chatting with friends and colleagues, I know a lot of parents are worried about their little ones, who can’t be vaccinated yet.
How is Disney world handling Covid19? My daughter and my grandchild ages 14,7,4 are going to be there Sept. 22 thru 29. We have had our Covid shots, but the 7 and 4 year old have not. Is it safe? How do you think that the crowds will be when we are there? Thank you
Booked a semi last minute trip last month for September 22-26 and was nervous about crowds because Hotels were so limited a month ago….but I hope crowds stay this low for my trip!
I just got back from a super last-minute trip taken Aug 23-28 and boy was it worth it. Not only were the crowds insanely low (I had entire trains to myself at Everest multiple times) but the weather was actually nicer than it was back in my home city of St. Louis. In addition, the plane rides down and back were not full, making the entire experience pleasant. We were here last year for the final week of August and it was actually better this time around, so you’re not wrong with the ‘feels like’ crowds either. The only annoyance is the rope-drop procedure taking away that nice extra half-hour or so in the morning.
We hit Rise (got a boarding group at 1:30pm) on Wednesday, and in the evening the preshow and first ‘flight’ weren’t operating, meaning they took us straight into the Stormtrooper bay. That’s the first time I’ve ever seen that down, but it did allow them to put through a very large number of people at once.
Go to Disney every year but have skipped the last two years. Florida needs to get their COVID case numbers under control first!
I’ve got a (not cancelled and not going to be) trip in the second hakf of September culminating in the 50th on October 1, and reading these reports I’m simultaneously torn between saying “All right, low crowds!” and “Oh no, it’ll get so low Disney will start closing restaurants and attractions again!”
It won’t be the same if I can’t enjoy the Country Bears…
I sometimes wish we lived close enough that when I read a report like this we could pop over for a last minute trip. Maybe one winter in retirement.
I guess folks that had to cancel their Disney vacations during the pandemic, and rescheduled them during the summer fall into the pent up demand bucket. Anecdotally, we know several families that meet that criteria and all visited last month.
Interesting article- thank you.
What do you expect for Labor Day weekend? Obviously, there will likely be a bump over August, but will it still be a sweet spot for average wait times being less than 30 minutes? Also, what did last Labor Day weekend/week look like?
Here’s a look back at last Labor Day: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/labor-day-weekend-disney-world-report-crowdpocalypse-no/
Different circumstances, so that’s not super useful. Personally, I’d expect a slight bump in crowds, but probably not as bad as many are expecting. Labor Day is not typically a “high crowds” holiday (at least as compared to Thanksgiving, Christmas, NYE, Easter, etc). It’s more like Memorial Day, which also doesn’t tend to be that bad.