Disney World’s Lowest Crowd Week of the Last Year
A couple of weeks ago, we published Autumn Off-Season Arrives Early at Walt Disney World. That took a look at lower than normal wait times and crowds for the first half of the month, offering theories as to why the slowdown was occurring prior to most schools going back into session.
Despite the data, many Walt Disney World fans disputed that analysis. Some recent visitors contended that crowds were still bad or above average. Of course, if compared to August 2010 or even August 2020, they would technically be right. However, Walt Disney World attendance has increased by millions of guests per year over the last decade–with the very noteworthy exception of last year. It all depends upon your frame of reference, we guess.
With two more weeks or wait time data and experiences at Walt Disney World, we have seen this trend continue. Numbers have plummeted even further. In fact, in the last full week of August 2021, Walt Disney World not only had its lowest wait times of the year–but the lowest since the exact same week last year…
Now, some might view that as “evidence” that crowd levels are normal for this time of year. After all, the same week in two consecutive months of August had almost identical wait times. However, I think (or at least hope) we can all agree that August of last year was an anomaly.
Walt Disney World had just reopened, Florida’s case numbers were elevated, travel trepidations were off the charts, and it was primarily locals, plus some diehard out of state Annual Passholders and a scattering of DVC members visiting the parks. Only a few hotels were open, and they were all operating at incredibly low occupancy. As word got out that the parks were veritable ghost towns and more people became comfortable traveling, attendance gradually increased through the remainder of the year.
Fast forward a year, and the circumstances are very different–even if some sound eerily familiar. The best illustration of that–for anyone who wants to compare year-over-year wait times for whatever reason–is comparing last July to this July…
The average wait time during the last full week of August 2020 was 18 minutes and the average wait time last week was also 18 minutes. By contrast, the average wait times across all of Walt Disney World during the last week of July 2021 was 43 minutes. The exact same week in July 2020 saw an average wait time of 15 minutes.
That should help contextualize the average wait times this week v. the last week of August 2020. For more, let’s take a look at park by park wait times with some graphs courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.
We’ll once again begin with Magic Kingdom, which had an average wait time of 18 minutes.
Exactly one month ago, the park had an average wait time of 50 minutes. That’s when we did our most recent Magic Kingdom Rope Drop Report: Busiest Day of Year at Park Opening. That is thankfully “obsolete” (for now), and we’ve already updated our 1-Day Magic Kingdom Itinerary to account for the dramatic decrease in crowds.
Going attraction by attraction, the wait times at even the Magic Kingdom headliners aren’t bad.
Top averages were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train at 50 minutes, Jungle Cruise at 40 minutes, Peter Pan’s Flight at 37 minutes, Astro Orbiter at 33 minutes, and Splash Mountain at 29 minutes.
We visited Magic Kingdom today and during the middle of the day on a Sunday, wait times weren’t even this bad.
The only attractions with significant waits were Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Peter Pan’s Flight, and even those had shorter posted wait times and neither queue spilled outside the entrance. (We didn’t do either, but based on what I saw, I have a hard time believing the actual wait for Seven Dwarfs Mine Train was above 30 minutes.)
Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad all had 10 minute posted waits but were near walk-ons, the recently-completed Jungle Cruise had a 25 minute wait (actual wait of ~20 minutes), and the PeopleMover was also a walk-on.
If you told me one month ago that we could do three-quarters of the Magic Kingdom Mountain Range with no wait, I wouldn’t have believed it. Yet here we are.
Notice anything missing from the photo above?
The last time we saw this few strollers at Magic Kingdom, it was in the first couple of weeks post-reopening. Of course, this makes sense. Parents are understandably apprehensive about visiting right now, plus schools are back in session.
The slowdown is even more pronounced at Animal Kingdom. Above is a look at average daily rates (rather than weekly) to showcase just how much crowds have fallen off there.
The average wait time there on July 28 was 57 minutes. This week, averages have ranged from 11 minutes to 15 minutes.
Of course, average waits of 11-15 minutes means there will be attractions and times above and below those numbers.
If you visit during the last few hours of the day, you can really clean up right now at Animal Kingdom. There’s not enough to fill an entire day there, so most people park hop in the afternoon. This results in posted wait times like those above, and scenarios where Avatar Flight of Passage, Navi River Journey, Expedition Everest, and others are walk-ons.
Hollywood Studios is also seeing lower wait times.
The end-of-July average was 50 minutes. This week, the average wait times was 25 minutes. Further helping matters is that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance boarding groups were available after 1 pm every single day of the week.
We did Disney’s Hollywood Studios yesterday, and had a great experience.
At the end of the night, everything was a near walk-on. We did Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, Slinky Dog Dash, Tower of Terror, and Toy Story Mania all with virtually no waits. (Unfortunately, Rise of the Resistance had downtime and its queue was backed up towards the end of the night, but that’s its own thing.)
Last but not least, there’s Epcot.
Epcot had an average wait time of 13 minutes this past week versus 29 minutes at the end of July. We visited Epcot on a handful of evenings the last week-plus, and the “feels like” crowds (especially on weekends) were definitely higher than this. It would seem that the Epcot Food & Wine Festival is drawing out some locals.
In terms of explaining why these crowds are so low, our theories are more or less unchanged. Our first theory is that this slowdown was an inevitability. It’s the natural conclusion of pent-up demand exhausting itself as the summer travel season drew to a close. After scorching spring and summer travel seasons during which Americans made up for lost vacation time, people have gotten their fix and are now going back to school.
The more pronounced slowdown can be partially attributed to the lack of international visitors, conventions, and group events that would normally sustain the off-season after school starts going back into session. There have also been widespread flight cancellations that likely play a small part. Finally, even those school districts that haven’t yet gone back might have more stringent quarantine policies, leading to greater August attendance drop.
Another big component could be Walt Disney World fans who normally visit this time of year, but are postponing trips until October for the start of the World’s Most Magical Celebration. That thus makes this a “sweet spot” for crowds, and one that should continue until things pick back up during the last week of September.
Although we suspect that all of these explanations play a part in contributing to lighter than normal August crowds, they’re unlikely the primary causes of the precipitous crowd collapse.
As we’ve noted elsewhere, the primary causes of cancellations are likely Florida’s record case numbers and Walt Disney World’s reinstated indoor mask rule.
Whenever these two controversial topics come up, there’s often confirmation bias at play. We hear “if Disney just got rid of the mask rule, the parks would be packed!” from one group and “if Florida did X, Y, or Z, we’d feel safe visiting!” from another group. Regardless of how you personally feel about any of this, try to set that aside. Not everyone shares your opinion–different people are cancelling for different reasons.
In talking with travel agents and third party vendors we know, all have stated that they’re seeing a high volume of cancellations driven by “current events” in a broad sense. Of course, that’s entirely anecdotal and constrained to who we know, but the sample size of high-volume vendors is large enough that it’s likely close to accurate.
For what it’s worth, these cancellations don’t just impact August and September. They extend all the way through the end of the year. Even if/when Walt Disney World drops the indoor mask rule and Florida’s case numbers turn around, it’ll only make so much difference. At least in part, the damage is already done.
With that said, there are also some things we know are not the primary explanations for Walt Disney World’s slowdown, because we can control for those. Basically, anything that also existed in late July can be ruled out.
Weather is probably not a major cause of the drop-off. Yes, it’s miserable in Florida, but it has been “nicer” the last couple of weeks than it was in late July when the parks were packed. Rain and heat can impact wait times to a minor degree, but the only thing that significantly throws them off is hurricanes.
Another thing that is not an explanation is pricing, nickel & diming, or backlash at Genie+ and Lightning Lanes. Due to differences in seasonal pricing and discounts, it’s significantly less expensive to visit now than it was in July. Moreover, Genie+ and Lightning Lanes hadn’t even been announced when this slowdown began.
Many of you undoubtedly want to believe that attendance is dropping because fans are fed up with Walt Disney World’s pricing. Again, don’t let that cloud your judgment. If those changes and cutbacks are going to catch up with Walt Disney World and impact attendance, it’ll likely happen in 2022 at the earliest, and not any time in the immediate future. Right now, a similar slowdown is occurring at Universal Orlando, so any explanation that applies to one park operator but not the other is unlikely to be a main driver of the drop that both are experiencing.
Ultimately, this bodes well for those with Walt Disney World vacations planned for September 2021. With that said, our expectation is that the return of Annual Passes is announced very, very soon with those likely to go on sale shortly after Labor Day. That could result in a slight bump in terms of pent-up demand, but the continued decline of visits among tourists could more than offset the resumption of AP sales.
As previously discussed, this should give some “breathing room” to crowds from October to December 2021, too. However, that absolutely does not mean crowds will continue to be this low. We were previously forecasting that 3 month stretch to have Walt Disney World’s worst-ever crowds, so even a 15-25% pullback still means the parks will be incredibly busy. I don’t want anyone saying or thinking I promised low crowds due to the cancellations–it’s still going to be packed. Just probably not quite as packed.
We’re getting to the point where cancellations could outpace new bookings for the remainder of the year. There’s an average lag of approximately 5 months between booking and traveling. It’s an inevitability that Florida’s case numbers will dramatically decrease next month.
With that said, it’s possible that word will get out about low crowds, which could cause a slight bump in bookings for October and beyond (exactly what happened last year). It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but if you want to take advantage of low crowds, a last minute trip between now and September 26, 2021 might make sense.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you cancelled a trip to Walt Disney World in 2021? Have any anecdotes of your own about cancellations? Conversely, are you considering a last-minute trip in September to take advantage of the anticipated low crowds? Do you think Walt Disney World’s crowds will hit record levels come October 2021, or will enough people cancellation to blunt the numbers? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Do you agree or disagree with our advice? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Hey Tom,
I’ve been following your updates for a few months as we made plans to visit Orlando over a year ago. We took our twin grand daughters who turned 8. We were there the last 2 weeks of Aug and just returned yesterday. We had a fantastic time and we made our plans based on much of your advise and input. I want to thank you for the insightful comments and views. We have been to Disney World several times and we have never seen the crowd level as low as this trip. The parks seemed crowded but the lines were mostly low. Some of our trips have seen wait times for most rides over an hour. I think our longest wait time was 40-45 minutes with most being minimal or no wait. We visited all 4 main parks as well as Universal/Island of Adventure with the latter parks having similar wait times. Again, thank you very much for your posts as they were very helpful. Please feel free to reach out if you would like to hear any specifics about our trip.
Rick
We will be at WDW the last week of September. We are fully vaccinated . We have no problem wearing masks. We know that masks alone do not fully protect people. We also know that children under 12 cannot be vaccinated yet. We would not bring children under 12 to WDW at this time. So we willingly do our part to protect them. Other countries have no problem willingly wearing masks for different reasons. We are Florida residents and wear them to church and when shopping. I watched World of Walt on Saturday and noted low crowds at Epcot. Many of us who live here cannot take vacations during tourist season. We come weekdays. We come for the Food and Wine Festival. We know that the Delta strain of COVID is high in Florida now. It will make its rounds throughout other states. A virus is nor Political. It does not care what our rules are. It only knows that if someone has resistance to it. That is why vaccination is so important.
Jill and Barbara. I’m in your camp. We will not go until all is back and running smoothly without restrictions. Also hoping that people have hit their breaking points with the changes and pricing the Disney Co. Has made lately. Hoping they lose a great deal of business quickly and have to offer amazing discounts and offer more family friendly incentives to get people back. They need a reality check anyway.
Hi Tom!!!! I saw you art MK yesterday by splash mountain, you were on the move! I have been here since last Tuesday, and I can’t believe the lines. I’m happy I came when I did because I don’t think it will ever be like this again. Flight in Pandora was a 20 min wait. That’s unheard of. I rode everything in MK on my first day in 3 hours. Mines was ever at 35 min wait last night. I had an awesome spot for the firework show. I even watched it a few times since I didn’t feel the need to hurry on rides when the crowd was low. It was low at every park. I know everyone is waiting for the 50th celebration, but man if you can go, anyone. You should go. Thank you for All you do Tom!
COVID is out of control in Florida due to an inept, uncaring governing style, so who wants to visit with such craziness going on? On top of that, rental cars are outrageously priced, so people are forced to pay 10x more for transportation. Travelers are definitely in a “wait and see” pattern right now.
We would go this week to take advantage of the low crowds now but we’re not buying Florida resident tickets that expire in September and seasonal/annual passes aren’t available yet… so we’ll keep using the universal and Busch gardens passes we got great deals on last year in the meantime….
We have a trip planned September 17-25. It’s fall break in our county and I believe in several other Georgia counties. Many years ago it was an amazing time to go, but as the years have passed and more places have added a fall break it’s become pretty busy. I’m hoping you are correct and most people are going to decide not to go this year. My sons and I went last year and wore masks. The crowds weren’t bad, but they weren’t ridiculously low either. This year we have a party of 9 including my parents and my brother and his family (only one of us, my 8 year old nephew, isn’t vaccinated). It would be amazing if the short waits continued long enough for us to experience them since there are no fast passes and Genie+ likely will not start before then. My sons and I have tickets for Boo Bash which we got specifically for short waits, but it still wouldn’t bother me if we had short waits all week. I mostly got them because they were cheaper than 1 day tickets and we didn’t have a ticket for that day. Do you think there’s any chance fall breaks will impact September trips, or is it likely to stay slow? It would be so nice to have a relaxing vacation for once.
We are here and spent the day in Hollywood Studios Sunday. It was amazing. We managed a 7am boarding pass (though weren’t worried as the 1pm sounded doable & indeed were available all evening). We did everything in the park, many multiple times, enjoyed a leisurely lunch at Prime Time, drinks at Oga’s and enjoyed low feels like crowds as well. Never any throngs of people, and there was always plenty of space around us. Not empty by any means, but very, very pleasant. So thrilled to have been lucky enough to hit the sweet spot! We hopped to EPCOT via the skyliner for an hour at the end of the night, sat down to watch the fireworks in a prime location with space for everyone to have breathing room, and the crowds walking out of the park afterwards were also very civilized. Busier than HS, but not nearly as bad as I expected (given that it was a weekend & the locals come out for the festival food, though I hoped Sunday would be better than Fri & Sat, and presumably it was). I thought it was very interesting that there are cast members trying to recruit takers to do the Savi’s Workshop thing. Not sure if it’s the pricing putting people off that there just aren’t enough people visiting to fill it up currently.
It does not take a statistician to figure out that more Covid cases in Florida, less tourists.
I’m planning for next wkend but being a holiday weekend I’m projecting a full park. A friend of mine went weekend of the 21 and said it was packed . Im not a fan of crowds pre or post rona. It’s Florida and it’s hot!! So if we book we’ll be heading to the parks at 5pm when the sun isn’t blazing and hopefully some people have gone home.
We were just here. The wait times were amazing. We finished all parks midday, which was wonderful. It left time for us to actually enjoy the resort and our time. We are all vaccinated, so we felt safe enough to go. Really don’t understand why people are losing their minds over a simple mask. I have Copd(pollution based) so I wear it with very little difficulty. The parks felt safe. And having the lines so short made this one of our loveliest vacations yet. The boo bash was subpar don’t waste your money on it.
We decided to book a last min trip for 9/7-9/10. Staying at the Yacht Club on a great rate through Priceline. We never would’ve even considered booking if it weren’t for your blog! I’m going to pack my umbrella, thanks to Sarah for the inspiration. You guys are simply the best! We’re so excited!
Question: do you think FL cases will drop enough that mask requirements could be dropped for our trip? We’re determined to go & enjoy ourselves no matter what, but I’m curious as to your prediction.
Just hoping the crowds stay as they are for our trip mid September. No chance I’d cancel! My kids and I are vaccinated and have no problem wearing masks inside. Looking forward to Boo Bash, riding the big rides multiple times, eating at Skipper, BOG and Oga’s! I got every ADR I wanted and then some. Even got a reservation for Savi’s just the other day! So excited, the only thing that will stop is now is the parks shutting down or no flights!!
I’m not going to Disney until they drop all COVID restrictions. I refuse to pay thousands of dollars to go to Disney without normal shows, character greetings, buffets and restaurants. I also refuse to take time off work just to wear a mask while I’m trying to have fun on a Disney vacation. If they would drop it, I would go tomorrow. But until they go back to normal, that’s a no for me and my family.
Just spent the last 4 days visiting each park. It was awesome. Far better then in March when the masks had to be worn even outside. I’ve never seen wait times like this and made it possible to se everything we wanted without zig zagging all over! Wish I was able to have my kids out of school for this trip.
We have our reservation for the week before Thanksgiving, but will cancel if two things happen, we still have to wear masks and no dining plan. It will break my heart, but we will rebook for April/May 2022.
Sadly we live in the UK and have postponed our trip twice . Having visited over 30 times feel really sad that UK visitors still not allowed . Booked for may 2022 and September 2022 but hoping the US opens soon
I would call Disney direct for hotel availability. When I was planning my trip there was nothing available online, but when I called they had rooms. Not sure why they are holding them back?
Talk about low wait times…….
Was just at Disneyland, arrived in the park at 7:30 pm (after the mile walk from the parking structure) was able to ride 7 major attractions and then people watch while eating a Gibson Girl ice cream ( mint chocolate chip and mocha almond fudge in a chocolate/ nut waffle cone ) ( priceless) and was back in the car and on my way home by 10:45pm , longest wait was Peter Pan at 20 minutes.
Not sure what’s going on …..but the short wait times are great.
Experts (University of South Florida, University of Florida, IHME at the University of Washington) projecting that the covid-19 outbreak is perhaps already diminishing on the way to a quick end. That would be wonderful news, with regular healthcare, schools, and much more disrupted by the big outbreak. Needless to say, there’s unofficial concern about visitors taking the virus home with them. And from my limited contacts, I think a new fear.
The situation in Florida seems sufficient to bring about quite a lot of cancellations.
I’m beginning a long recovery from shoulder surgery. I don’t know when Disney might become feasible.