Off-Season Airfare Deals for Disney World & Price Decrease Forecast
Looking for ways to save money on trips to Walt Disney World during the upcoming off-season? We can’t help with the now overdue discounts on resorts, but we do have a trio of deals on Orlando airfare to share. Perhaps more importantly, welcome relief is on the way via falling flight costs in the coming months.
Let’s start with the latter bit of good news. After a truly chaotic summer travel season with overflowing airports, daily delays, constant cancellations, and soaring airfare, things might be turning the corner and finally improving. In particular, travel experts are forecasting falling flight prices as summer ends and the shoulder season starts.
Some analysts are predicting that domestic round-trip ticket prices could drop below $300 on average in the coming months. According to data from travel booking platform Hopper, average domestic ticket prices could decrease by around $150 in September and October 2022. But it gets even better than that!
The average price of a domestic roundtrip flight right is forecast to fall to a low of $286 later in August 2022. That’s down 25% compared to the airfare peak in May of this year. Notably, it’s also down 3% as compared to the same month in 2019, the last “normal” year before, well, you know.
As you’re also undoubtedly aware, airfare has been expensive for the spring and summer travel seasons–far, far above 2019. The culprits for this are fairly well-known to readers here, mirroring those of Walt Disney World: pent-up demand, staffing shortages, inflation, and higher jet fuel prices (okay, that last one is not one of the usual suspects discussed here).
The two last two summer travel seasons have had artificially depressed demand for flights. The reasons are obvious for 2020, but then last summer got off to a slow start before being cut short due to the Delta variant. This year, traveler demand peaked earlier than in a normal summer. (That’s interesting–and unsurprising–because it tracks perfectly with wait time data from our Walt Disney World crowd reports.)
Also unsurprising is that airfare is less expensive for August through October. This is normal for the airline industry, with seasonality kicking in after school starts going back into session; demand tapers off following the peak summer vacation months. (Again, trends mirrored in Walt Disney World wait time data.) It’s simply more pronounced this year due to the abnormally elevated summer prices and impact of satiated pent-up demand.
Slower bookings over the fall shoulder season causes airlines to lower prices in an effort to incentivize travelers to book trips and fill unsold seats. Since they’re perishable commodities (meaning that if a flight departs with empty seats, that revenue goes unrealized), it behooves airlines to adjust prices and offer sales as necessary to fill flights to the greatest extent practicable.
It should go without saying, but these lower prices won’t last. Anyone who follows Walt Disney World wait times (or even simply…goes places) will know this. Fall is considered the “shoulder season” because it’s between two busy travel windows–summer and the holiday season. By mid to late October, travelers will begin booking and traveling again.
Consequently, airfare will gradually rise in October to $339, then $373 in November 2022. Domestic flights are forecast to average $368 per ticket in December, with daily prices peaking at close to $400 for last-minute dates around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve.
And of course, these are just averages. If you’re flying from MRY to MCO two days before Thanksgiving, don’t be surprised when the prices are “slightly” higher than the aforementioned airfares. Rates from regional airports are typically higher, as are weekends, longer flights, etc.
On the plus side, if you’re flying from Atlanta, Charlotte, or even Midwestern cities like Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, etc., you very well might pay less for your flights to Walt Disney World. (This should be obvious, but there’s always someone in the comments who is shocked that their specific circumstances don’t perfectly comport with averages. For whatever reason, it’s never someone who’s happy that their prices are lower than the norm, either.)
One big driver of higher prices this holiday season as compared to 2019 will be jet fuel prices. Over the summer, per gallon prices were up 85% as compared to 2019 and 86% as compared to last year. Jet fuel prices typically account for between 15% and 30% of an airline’s operating expenses and are a significant contributing factor to the higher airfares. On a positive note, jet fuel prices appear to have peaked in early June, are down over 10% in the last month, and are forecast to continue decreasing this fall.
While airlines continue to contend with understaffing and recovering networks that have caused disruptions, delays, and cancellations, their capacity is starting to recover. It’ll likely remain below 2019 levels through mid-2023, but expected improvements coupled with reduced demand should help reduce the airport anarchy that many travelers encountered this summer.
With that, let’s turn to even more positives–and specific instances of cheaper airfare this fall off-season. Here’s a look at the advertised sales that select airlines are currently offering…
Going in alphabetical order, we’ll start with Alaska Airlines. Book by 11:59 pm (PT) on August 4, 2022 to land an autumn adventure as part of Alaska Airlines’ Take-Care Sale.
With this deal, the airline is offering one-way flights starting at just $39, including discounted flights to San Diego, Las Vegas, Seattle, Portland, Palm Springs, plus Los Angeles and Orange County (e.g. Disneyland).
Travel dates for Alaska Airlines’ Take-Care Sale are September 6 through December 14, 2022. This is less of a Walt Disney World deal and more one for Disneyland given Alaska’s routes and the available discounts. With this promo, prices start at $39 but are primarily in the $59 to $99 range.
We only have limited experience with Alaska Airlines, but all of it is positive. I wouldn’t hesitate to book with them if they had airfare that worked for our itineraries and travel dates.
If you’re thinking about a fall trip to Disneyland, our strong recommendation would be flying into SNA over LAX. Even if the flight is a little more expensive, it’s worth it. Not only is SNA closer to Disneyland (and a significantly cheaper Uber or Lyft ride), but LAX has tons of chaos, construction, and crowds.
We like LAX and its eclectic energy, but it’s more than a little overwhelming for a first-timer. Meanwhile, SNA is laid back and quiet. If there were a list ranking the best airports for napping, it would be near the top and LAX would be near the bottom.
Next up, JetBlue is offering a discount as a celebration of sorts for sweeping in to win the Spirit Airlines sweepstakes. (I’m not good at business, but do lemon laws apply to airline acquisitions? JetBlue might need to know.)
In any case, JetBlue is offering deals on nonstop flights using the code FALLSALE. You can book this discount directly via JetBlue here.
When you spend $50 or more on airfare in one direction, JetBlue will take $25 off of that price for travel booked by midnight August 3, 2022. Travel dates are September 7 through November 16, 2022 (excluding Fridays and Sundays) and require a $50 minimum spend.
This is advertised as discount one-way flights, but you can stack two one-way flights to make a round-trip flight and get double the discount. (In general, we usually recommend booking separate one-way flights rather than round trips. This is our approach about 95% of the time.)
Speaking of Spirit, the loser (or winner, depending upon perspective) of that acquisition attempt is also offering aggressive discounts. After Frontier’s proposed merger with Spirit didn’t come to fruition, the airline opted to instead have a sale. While it’s sad that the two won’t be able to combine their powers and form an unprecedentedly awful airline the likes of which the world has never seen, I’m sure they’ll each continue to find new and innovative ways of being terrible. I believe in you, Frontier!
The budget carrier is currently offering fares starting at $18 to its Discount Den members. To find the lowest fares, search by price on Frontier’s website. Here are examples of cheap fares to Orlando via Frontier:
If you’re not a Discount Den member, you can expect to pay a little more for these flights. In our searches, standard fares were about $5 to $15 more expensive each way as part of Frontier’s fare sale.
The lowest rates we found were for Charlotte ($18) as well as Atlanta ($19) and Hartford ($19). However, even the prices from Chicago and Denver are hard to beat.
There are a few things to keep in mind before booking this deal. First, these are Frontier’s base weekday rates on certain dates only–we saw some flights for $18 and others for over $200 on the same itinerary. Second, Frontier will nickel and dime you with fees and upcharges–there’s almost no way anyone is flying to Walt Disney World for under $50 on Frontier.
Finally, Frontier is a bad airline. If you’ve had good experiences with Frontier and are a diehard “Denny” (what I assume Discount Den members call themselves), that’s great. But it doesn’t change the fact that Frontier is an ultra-low cost carrier. It’s not that Frontier is unsafe, it’s that the service and overall experience doesn’t measure up to Delta–or even Southwest. In fairness, neither do the prices.
Although we are frugal, we are averse to ultra-low cost carriers. It’s not because we enjoy wasting money, but rather, because the experience is less comfortable and the service is worse. Equally important as of late, these carriers typically fly fewer routes, don’t have reciprocal relationships with other airlines, and are less responsive when issues arise since they compete on price and not customer service.
While pretty much every airline has had woes this year, our experiences with United, Delta, and Southwest have been all been positive. Those airlines all make good faith efforts at guest recovery, whereas Frontier’s attitude seems to be “the customer is a burden who should be thankful to arrive within 6-8 weeks of intended departure.”
Not to pick on Frontier exclusively–I also hate American and Air Canada, and not just because I have a bias against airlines named after places in North America. Also, I really want to love Frontier, I swear. It’s almost impossible for me to dislike airlines with cute critters as mascots, but my experiences with Frontier have been so awful that they’ve made the nearly impossible, possible. (You know how hard it is for me to hate the home of Grizwald the Bear, Courtney the Cougar, and Virginia the Wolf?! THOSE NAMES MAKE THE ANIMALS EVEN MORE IMPOSSIBLY ADORABLE.)
Ultimately, those are the airfare discounts available right now, and why more are likely on the horizon for the next few months. If none of these deals work for you, we’d recommend signing up for fare alerts on Airfarewatchdog.com and price tracking via Google Flights.
Above all else, flexibility is your friend when it comes to saving money on flights (or just about anything travel-related). Hopefully with the info and offers here, you can save money on one of the most expensive aspects of your Walt Disney World vacation. (On a related note, to reduce flight-related headaches, see What to Do If Your Flight is Cancelled or Delayed.)
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
Thoughts or expectations about airfare costs during the upcoming shoulder and holiday seasons? Do you have any additional tips & tricks for scoring deals on airfare to Walt Disney World? Do you have a favorite airline? Any specific airline you dislike? Thoughts on the different airfare search engines or booking sites? What about sites (like Airfarewatchdog) to follow for hot deals on flights? Any questions about what we covered? Hearing from you is half the fun, so please share in the comments below!
Philadelphia to Orlando on AA is $600+ in economy in November and December. It’s wild! It has to decrease.
Yep! I just moved my trip to October to save $500 on flights out of PHL. Crazy!
We are locals and LAX can be such a mess along with traffic. We live 1 hour away and
left 3 hours early and still BARELY made a flight. I now look at ANY other airport.
However have to admit the prices can be substantially lower at LAX. You have to decide
if worth the headache.
I’ve done Jet Blue and last trip we used Southwest. I find the Southwest prices reasonable, the boarding system convenient and easy, and the 2 free pieces of luggage a no brainer. I usually pack a suitcase of snacks to keep at the hotel room and for quick breakfasts on the go. With prices of everything so crazy, you have to leverage what you can! Lol. We fly out end of January and home first week of February. Fingers crossed flight prices will be decent!
Link on JetBlue says deal is over when u open link.
“ Finally, Frontier is a bad airline. If you’ve had good experiences with Frontier and are a diehard “Denny” (what I assume Discount Den members call themselves), that’s great. But it doesn’t change the fact that Frontier is an ultra-low cost carrier. It’s not that Frontier is unsafe, it’s that the service and overall experience doesn’t measure up to Delta–or even Southwest. In fairness, neither do the prices.”
Regarding Frontier (and ultra low-cost carriers in general), we certainly have had our fair share of poor experiences (Off the top of our heads, SAS & Norwegian Air come to mind), but we’re very used to flying Frontier and have come to expect ‘what not to expect’ from them. Overall, we usually don’t pay for assigned seats and only fly with a personal item like a small backpack. (My wife is a folding/packing ninja.) We also purchase our tickets at the airport ticket counter to avoid paying the non-refundable “Carrier Interface Charge” that Frontier tacks on for buying tickets online. This alone, typically adds a rebate of around $46 pp. Case and point, a few months back we had booked two round-trip tickets from LAX to Orlando for late August to early September on American which was around $805 altogether and included a layover. Then, we noticed Frontier’s current sale last week and ended up getting our tickets to Orlando for $500 cheaper at the airport and both flights are to/from Ontario, CA (which we live by) and non-stop! For us, it was a no-brainer. Everyone’s experience is different though and when dealing with American ultra low-cost carriers like Frontier, Spirit, or even Allegiant, your mileage can certainly vary. However, we definitely feel these airlines are worth considering, especially if you’re traveling on a tight budget.
I have been watching flights non stop. We are going in December for the first time. We live between Dallas and Houston in east Texas so I’ve literally been searching both airports in both of those cities as well as Austin and Shreveport. Along with many regional airports. Fares are about $330 to $400 each on the low end. We have a family of 4 so that really adds up. Hopper is saying to keep watching flights and they should decrease by October. We are flexible by a day on our departure flight (late Thursday night Dec 8 or anytime Dec 9) . We are pretty set on our return flight (early Sunday Dec 18 unless we leave late Friday and use Monday as a vacation day flight home). I thought by getting there and back prior to the big masses for Christmas that it would help (both on airfare and for park crowds). I’m really hoping a sale comes that includes prior to Christmas. I don’t want to have to pay $1400 or spend time on a 16 hour drive each way that would cut into our park days (not including stops ).
“Although we are frugal, we are averse to ultra-low cost carriers” I haven’t flown Frontier/Spirit, but we’ve taken Ryan Air twice. If you are in Europe, I’d encourage you to give it a try. ($28 per person from Naples to Venice with only a personal item and still only $53 pp with a carryon was the same price as a train.)
Last year at Disneyland, we flew out of SNA and I’d second your recommendation (I’d take LAX for a direct flight, but neither airport had direct flights and the prices were the same). the smaller airport and convenience were nice.
We’ve flown low-cost carriers in Europe before, and wouldn’t hesitate to do it again. As with the airline industry as a whole, standards are typically higher outside the US.
So it looks like these discounts apply only to the “shoulder” season (fall), and not to Thanksgiving week, correct? We’re flying from California to Orlando Thanksgiving week and prices are already high (about $1300/person round trip). I was hoping they’d come down, but they haven’t budged. So I guess it would be best to buy them now before they sell out or get even more expensive?
We’ve never flown Thanksgiving week before and appreciate anyone’s insights! Thank you!
Sara
Thanksgiving will definitely be higher than what’s discussed here, but $1,300 seems absurdly expensive even without knowing your city of origin. Do you have any degree of flexibility with airports or dates? If so, I’d probably wait. Another option is booking, setting a fare alert, and rebooking if the price drops.
We’re flying from a regional airport in central CA, so more expensive than SFO and LAX, on Southwest Air. Unfortunately, we don’t have much flexibility, we need these dates, times, so we may have to book and watch for a price drop as you advise. Thanks for your response, love your blog!
Actually, SFO to Orlando is also $1300-$1600 per person roundtrip on the same dates. Hopefully they come down!
Love this article. We flew Spirit to WDW in July and are flying Air Canada to Vienna next week. I like Spirit as the uncomfortable seats make me feel like I’m building character. Then I remember the days of yore when Thai Airways would give a fresh orchid to ladies in economy class while disembarking, and I think of how lucky I am to still be alive to be experiencing all these things. Mind you, I’m not looking forward to flying out of Pearson airport…
Economy in Singapore Airlines is still fantastic. The Japanese carriers are also good, but not on par with Singapore.
Knock on wood, I’ve only had one bad experience flying Frontier, and that experience only resulted in my late afternoon flight to Disney being delayed several hours. Not ideal, but we hung out at Chickie & Pete’s in PHL, and we ended up seeing our resort in the wee hours of the morning. We NEVER see the resort grounds that empty, with the exception of a few elderly folks out riding their electric scooters. Not riding together in a group, either; there were several different solo scooters motoring about. Is that something the elderly do at Disney? Normally it probably wouldn’t seem overly funny to see an elderly lady zipping around and doing 180s on her scooter, but on the brink of exhaustion, my cousin and I thought it was comical and laughed hysterically. It was quite a memorable experience! We would have missed it completely had our flight not been delayed.
You should see Port Orleans Riverside. Gangs of elderly individuals zoom around on scooters, causing mischief and claiming territory. It has become a serious problem–Disney needs to do something before the turf wars get out of hand.
LOL Canadian here. We ALL hate Air Canada; it’s the absolute worst. Personally, you couldn’t pay me to fly with them.
Also wanted to note, we find that Canadian airlines in general have fewer problems than the U.S. ones. So our standards are a bit different. To see an American complaining about Air Canada…oy, you know it’s bad.
While it is possible to save money with Frontier’s total prices, it is much, much worse than resort fees when it comes to base price obscuring the total price.
I used to “technically” book one-way trips across country because there’s so many airports in Southern California. Even when flying the same airline, what would look to me as being a round trip ticket would actually be two one day tickets in the airline’s system as I would fly out to one airport but leave from another. It not only saved money but was often necessary to guarantee direct flights; you just have to be extra patient with people working for airlines with ancient software that won’t automatically connect the two flights. (Pro tip: when flying out of LAX, try and spend the night at one of the multiple hotels *near* the airport with hotel shuttles to reduce stress and time.)
Anyone here with first hand evidence that Sanford exists?
I definitely agree that SNA is a significantly more laidback experience compared to LAX, but I’d still go for LAX every single time. Coming from the east coast, SNA has far fewer flights, so when there’s been an issue with one we booked, it tended to be a big hassle to solve. I also prefer nonstop flights whenever possible (it seems like fewer places things could go wrong), and, again from the east coast, I’ve never managed to find reasonable nonstop flights into SNA. LAX, on the other hand, has a ton of options.
Great points, and I don’t necessarily disagree–we fly into and out of LAX a lot.
For a first-timer to Disneyland (who perhaps is stepping outside their comfort zone just visiting California), I still think the LAX experience can be intimidating. That might sound absurd to Californians or seasoned travelers, but we’ve heard from more than a few people who started out their trip on the wrong foot just by flying into LAX.
Tom,
Curious why you prefer to book one-ways rather than round trips? I know some people that swear by this, but I usually find the round trips to be cheaper.
I have the same question. Also, sneaking in a thanks to Tom and Sarah and everyone who comments. All the good advice made our May first time family trip to Disneyworld AMAZING.
It’s been a long time since I’ve encountered cheaper round trip pricing, but I’d book that if it were the case.
As for booking one-way flights, one big reason is to use different airlines if flight prices are cheaper that way. However, I’ll do it even if flying one airline, as it offers a lot more flexibility. If one flight is delayed or cancelled, it’s a lot easier to get rebooked (especially on another airline) without impacting the other flight.
We’ve had to modify ~6 flights in the last few months to avoid getting stuck at the airport, and it’s been a lot easier this way.
We have always flown Jetblue to Orlando from NY but our last trip in April both flights were delayed- the return flight was significantly delayed. I wouldn’t say I hate them now but that left a bad taste and paired with high prices and inconvenient flight times- we ended up booking Delta for our next trip in December.. Fingers crossed its a better experience.
Delta is far and away my favorite US carrier.
I know so much of this is anecdotal, and it’s possible to have good and bad experiences with all airlines, but we fly a lot and Delta has been the clear winner for us–especially between Southern California and Orlando and through their hub airports. (Great flight options, newer planes, excellent crews.)
Same here…Delta is my new favorite. From the friendly agents, to the drink/snack service & the free in-flight entertainment, it was like stepping back in time!
“ While it’s sad that the two won’t be able to combine their powers and form an unprecedentedly awful airline the likes of which the world has never seen…”
I laughed out loud when I read that. Your blog is the best Tom. Pretty much the highlight of the internet for me. Thanks for all you guys do to keep me both informed and amused!
Funny write up. Not so funny has been trying to get decent flights (price and time of departures) for our upcoming trip. That along with the evil genie, the fact that I just dug through drawers to find old magic bands and a couple of new looking refillable cups in which to borrow coffee I feel like I’m in the Disney twilight zone. But I thank you for your invaluable help otherwise I’d just lie to my kids and say the parks have folded.
Why do you dislike Air Canada? I flew to Tokyo in 2019 on Air Canada and it was perfectly fine. The Rouge portion was meh but not as bad at Frontier, so…
We’ve had a couple of really bad experiences with Air Canada and have friends with similar horror stories. If I recall correctly, almost all of the negative in-person experiences have been out of MCO, so maybe they’re better out of other locations? I won’t be finding out.
It was out of MCO that I flew (I live in Orlando). Thank goodness I didn’t have issues! It was honestly delightful (but no comparison to Virgin Atlantic). I would love to fly JAL or ANA but Air Canada was $700 less, and it’s always less when I check. I do have limited travel times due to my day job, so… it is what it is!
Why do “hate” American? We’ve gotten flights from CLT/MCO for less than $200 and then upgraded to 1st for $46 on several of them. The flights are not always that cheap but it does happen sometimes. American has daily CLT/MCO flights about every 2 hours although the 7pm and 9 pm are currently not on the schedule. As passholders we probably fly American CLT/MCO 8-10 times each year. Never had any issues with American.
Hate is probably too strong of a word for AA. My experiences with them haven’t been as bad as some ultra-low cost carriers, but I expect more of the legacy airlines, and my experiences with AA haven’t been even remotely on par with Delta or United. To each their own, though. I’m sure plenty of others love AA and have sworn off Delta and UA for similar reasons.
I will say I hate AA. I’ve never had a good experience with them. They were unfortunately our corporate choice at the time so there was a stint where I had to fly with them (thankfully that is over and we’re free to move about the nation). If the flight wasn’t delayed or cancelled, my luggage didn’t show or those flying with me were horrible.
My go-to is Southwest. I’ve only had one cancellation and never an issue with my luggage. Every time they’ve needed to delay (or my one cancel) they’ve provided vouchers and been very pleasant to deal with. Now that my vouchers don’t expire, I’m even more pleased. I am also only booking direct flights for the near future – anything else is more of a gamble these days. Next trip to MCO is in Sept (out of CMH) and I’m only slightly anxious.
There are aspects of the Southwest experience that I don’t love–and I personally prefer Delta–but I think Southwest in general is a great company with excellent service. I wouldn’t hesitate to fly with them (we still do when it makes sense), and that’s something I wouldn’t say of other low-cost carriers.