2018 Free Dining Predictions
As promised, we have some Free Disney Dining Plan promotion predictions for Fall/Winter 2018 at Walt Disney World. Up front we want to be clear: we do not yet know what exact dates will be (but we do have rumored 2018 Free Dining dates here). Rather, this post offers predictions about what you can expect in terms of availability so you can manage your expectations.
The first thing we want to do is–for like the thousandth time–reiterate that Walt Disney World does not offer any promotion out of corporate generosity. Free Dining exists to incentivize guests to travel at times of year that have historically lower hotel occupancy rates.
The problem (well, unless you’re Disney!) is that occupancy rates have steadily increased for the last several years. This has been true even for times that were low seasons in the past, and there are a number of explanations for this, from a rise in conventions to special events to consumer confidence. We’ve covered all of this in past posts, so we won’t rehash it here.
The salient point is that Walt Disney World has less of a need to offer discounts to fill hotel rooms. Those of you who follow the financial side of Disney might recall several years ago when then-chairman of Parks & Resorts Jay Rasulo stated Disney’s goal is to slowly wean guests off major discounts at the theme parks, but at the same time, “we don’t believe we’re dealing with an economy that allows us to cut off the discounting immediately.”
Well, that time is now. With a strong economy for the past few years, the weaning has already begun. We’ve witnessed Free Dining slowly scaled back at the Value and Moderate Resorts, and other promotions have not been nearly as aggressive as their counterparts in prior years.
Moreover, as Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge prepares to open late next year, Disney fans should be bracing for a time when discount availability is incredibly limited–if not totally nonexistent. We don’t think it’s all that bold of a prediction to say that Free Dining, as we know it today, probably won’t exist come 2020.
We anticipate that Walt Disney World’s Free Dining dates will track fairly closely with last year’s Free Dining dates. (See this post for historical/rumored dates.) The most reliable set of dates will be in mid-August to late September, and those dates should also have the best availability in terms of hotels. Don’t expect a single day in October. A scattering of November dates should be available again, and there’s likely to be a stretch in December after (but not including) the first week and running until as late as December 22.
As compared to last year, the dates most likely to be scaled back are in November and December. While not as busy as October, the “off-season” dates in these months have increased in popularity. Expect the November and December dates that are offered to have more limited hotel availability than September.
We’d also anticipate that Walt Disney World will continue its recent trend of offering an extended date range for Disney Visa cardholders. This offer is somewhat akin to a bounce-back in that it is more restrictive than a general public offer, and makes it easier for Disney to offer certain “borderline” dates to a subset of the general public.
One tidbit we heard recently, and I had a difficult time believing this, is that Walt Disney World must offer 50% of its available room inventory for any date and room category that is included in any discount offered to the general public. Rather than doing the smart thing and, you know, asking follow-up questions when presented with this information, I just shook my head and said, “no way–no way.”
Most people who have experience with Free Dining the last couple of years has likely encountered firsthand–or heard stories of–people being denied on the morning the deal dropped, despite their resort choice and dates falling within the promo range.
However, if you take a step back from the above (supposed) requirement, a few things stand out. First, although I don’t know just “who” is mandating this 50% number, whether it be Disney internally or external. If the latter, an FTC mandate seems most plausible. There has been a growing crackdown on illusory discounts and phantom markdowns, and hotel room inventory in a discount could fall under the purview of an FTC rule. (For what it’s worth, I did some research and couldn’t find anything.)
Second, there’s the word available in room inventory. This could very well mean that if a resort is already at 80% occupancy for a certain time of year before Free Dining drops, Disney only is required to offer 10% of the rooms (half of 20%) for that resort. With occupancy rates inching up every year for the past several, that could explain the dearth of availability the last couple years.
Third, it’s also possible that Disney allocated more than 50% of its inventory to Free Dining in the past, and has reduced that to 50% as occupancy rates have been on the rise. This would compound the relative lack of inventory as compared to previous years.
Finally, Disney’s hotel room inventory has decreased over the last couple of years. In addition to the buildings that were demolished last year at Coronado Springs and Caribbean Beach, Wilderness Lodge had hotel rooms converted to Disney Vacation Club, and several resorts had large blocks of rooms taken out of inventory as large-scale refurbishments occurred. For Free Dining fans, the most notable of these has been Pop Century. Again, another compounding factor.
There is a silver lining, at least. Pop Century’s rooms should all be back into inventory by the start of Free Dining. Really, the only large-scale refurbishment we can think of that will impact room inventory will be Old Key West, and that’s hardly a hotspot for Free Dining.
With all of that said, we don’t doubt that Disney has ways of manipulating its available room inventory. Rooms could be blocked off as “out of service” so as to avoid inclusion in the promotion, only to be brought back at a later date. This could explain why availability has suddenly appeared a week or so after the promotion has kicked off in the past.
Even with all of these caveats, it’s still very hard to believe that some of the resorts had anything more than a minimal amount of availability. Some resorts were “sold out” almost instantly the first morning last year, and although many of these ended up having availability open up later, it was disconcerting to such limited options on day one.
All of this is a long-winded way of saying that you should really temper your expectations, and plan on being flexible with your hotel choice, room category, and even travel dates if Free Dining is a must-have for you. With each year, Free Dining gains in popularity, and more people try to score the deal, and every year for the last several, availability has been lower. Free Dining is more competitive, more stress-inducing, and just plain more difficult than it was only a few years ago. For many people, Free Dining release is like Christmas morning. Unlike Christmas, though, this is a day on which many of you will just get lumps of coal.
Want more dining recommendations? Check out our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. For info on whether the DDP is right for you, read our Ultimate Guide to the Disney Dining Plan. For comprehensive vacation advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS…
Have any predictions for Free Dining this year? If you’re trying for Free Dining, what travel dates are you aiming for? Are you ‘sitting out’ Free Dining this year, not wanting to deal with the headache and stress? Any questions? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!
Thank you for the update. You got me curious about extended availabilities for disney credit card holders. Historically, what are the FD dates for Disney card holders?
Just want to add I’m very sad to hear free dining will probably be phased out soon. When staying in a value or moderate, it was a very nice perk, and added a lot of excitement to the Disney vacation experience. We got free dining in 2016 and 2017, in 16, it was very easy to book, in 2017, it was a real beech, at Carabiean Beach! Also had the $70 a day gift card credit. Lucky Me!
Mike, When you got the free dining, did you already have your reservations and a dining plan and then just call and ask them to add the free dining? We have reservations for December during the time that dining has been offered free in the past. I do not have the dining plan added to my reservations. I am just wondering if they will let me add the free dining to an existing reservation that doesn’t have dining plan already. What has been your experience?
What free dining plan do you think there will be for Moderate Resorts? I love going in Sept and usually stay at Coronad.lisa
Does the campground at WDW count as a “Free Dining” lodging option?
We are traveling on Sept and staying at AoA. Last time we were at WDW was 2014 and we got Free Dining with regular park tickets on our package. Is it necessary now to have Park Hopper?Thanks!
I have already booked my vacation package (room/tickets/dining) at the All Star Resorts for August. What are the chances, if my dates fall within the time period, that I would get the FD since I already have the package deal?
In the past, if there was availability, they would transfer your reservation
I see Disney scaling back hard on free dining soon, especially with the renovated reosrts and new openings of attractions and lands.. I kinda think there may not be a free dining bc of you story land opening they won’t need to offer it for attendance..
We love dining plan but find for us staying atbdeluxes the room discount is a higher savings
We are currently booked for the second and third week of September. I hoping we can receive free dining or/and a hotel discount so we could stay somewhere a little different than we normally do.
I already have the free dining booked for the second week in December. Booked it on the bounce back offer when I was there last sept/oct
I already have the Wilderness Lodge booked for the last week in August. Do you think once free dinning is offered I’ll have a difficult time adding it to my reservation.
Yes… hoping for free dining discount!
Booked at POR end of August. Can you add free dining when it’s released online or do you have to call in to add discount?
I know that there is never a free dining promo during October which is when we have our next trip booked at Poly. Is there usually a room discount during that time?
Discounts are becoming less and less common for October, and even when they are released, there’s seldom much availability.
Hey ya’ll,
We went to DW in 2014 and 2015 and got the free dining both times, due to our friend who was a Disney TA. We went at the very end of Sept, being as our fall break is the first week in October. We had been previously, but stayed off property to save money. The FD made sense from a budgetary standpoint. We are going back this year and we have actually secured two different reservations, one for two rooms (family of 5) at Pop, and one at PO Riverside. We are hoping that Riverside does receive the offer, as we’d like to try someplace new. Pop is our standby, as it usually receives it every year. Do you think there’s a possibility we couldn’t get the discount even if it’s offered at one of the two resorts? Our friend is no longer a TA. We did the previous two trips, just modifying our reservation after the FD came out. What do ya’ll think.
Thanks, Erik
How does the free dining work when you are a Disney visa card holder? I am currently booked on August 15 at the beach club resort. When I modify my reservation will something come up that I can apply the free dining with those early dates?
So we booked Port Orleans Royal room in december. We saw that we were in the free dining dates rom last year but then saw that the hotel was excluded! Is this common? We are Disney VISa cardholders, will this help assuming the dates are the same?
If there’s a resort exclusion, it usually applies the same for Visa cardholders and the general public. Could change this year, but I doubt it.
Riverside was excluded for a few years, but I think that’s changing. Last year I think I remember French Quarter was excluded, but Riverside was available. However, I did notice all specialty rooms (Royal room, Princess rooms etc) are usually always excluded from free dining deals. It might be worth it to switch your room if you are fortunate enough to get through the day it goes “live” and there is still availability.
There was no FD discount during our trip last October, or even a RO discount on the room we wanted, so I gave myself a “discount” by forgoing hopper tickets, which are usually required to get FD. With two littles we don’t get much out of hopping anyway.
We’re not among those hoping for Free Dining this year. I am, however, hoping for a Room Only discount. Any thoughts on how those will be affected this fall?
If I recall correctly, early August and September room-only discounts were pretty good last year, both in terms of availability and the percentage off. By contrast, November and December was not so hot, with okay rates, but with very limited availability.
I’d expect a repeat of that, more or less.
Sweet. This is an adults only trip for our 20th anniversary, and will (hopefully) be our first time at a monorail resort. I’ve currently got a reservation at Contemporary, but I’m hoping for a discount. If we don’t get a discount there, we may switch to a moderate.
Agree! I got 40% off at Boardwalk last September. It was substantial
I think DW is over priced we went several years in a row. So we switch to Carnival cruise line for less than half the money.we have two children and they pick cruises over DW every time.
K
We love disney world and have gone every year since I was 16. I’m 40 now with my own family and we still go, every year. I’m getting concerned that Walt Disney world is eventually going to become completely unaffordable to us. We always get the dining plan and do Bounce back offers because free dining is just ridiculous at this point. It’s nearly impossible. But I’m really concerned. I truly hope that as “Disney” weans their guests off of “large discounts” they keep in mind their loyal customers who come every year as a tradition, maybe they need to chill a little with their pricing before people start leaving their tradition behind.
“…maybe they need to chill a little with their pricing before people start leaving their tradition behind.”
I think this should be a big concern for Disney, but I’m not so sure that it is.
It’s a matter of brand goodwill and long-term reputation as much as anything. Over the course of decades, Disney has developed a loyal following, and reputation among middle class families as a must visit destination, and something of a ‘rite of passage’ trip for all kids.
If pricing trends continue, that reputation will change for the worse. Then when the economy does see a downturn, it’ll take a lot of effort and massive discounting to “undo” the new reputation.
Disney is doing the same as Republican party… catering to the upper crust of the world. Those families will pay big bucks so it will not matter if they lose a quantity of visitors as long as their corporate spreadsheets look good. Besides, less people in hotels and parks, less wear and tear on parks/rides/hotels and less staff to hire too! They’re a corporation, it’s all about their bottom line and they will market and appeal to those who can help them get there. Look at colleges in the U.S. it’s hugely expensive yet try to get into one…they’re turning students away! It’s personal to us however all business to them.
I actually hope they do away with Free Dining. For us, that is not a selling point, you can get much better room discounts, and sometimes it can be cheaper to pay OOP for meals vs the Dining Plan. I see hundreds of questions a year asking when free dining will be offered, as a majority try and plan trips for the time frame. Free dining happened to fall during our vacation last year, we opted for the room discount and paid for the dining plan. I did however realize ADR’s were booked up fast! I think there is a lot more ADR “hoarding” during the free dining period.
I agree. It makes it difficult to get ADRs because people are choosing places they wouldn’t normally if they were paying OOP. I get that – I’ve done it. But it tends to skew things terribly.
I think we all have, when park hours are so up in the air at the 180 day mark, better to play it safe! But, this year it was almost impossible to switch anything around, everything was gone! Once we were at Disney, dining availability starting popping up like crazy!
I’ll have to keep that in mind. We’ll be there in September (without kids!), so it will be during that prime Free Dining time, but we’ll be more flexible. We’re not looking for character meals this time, so I’m hoping we won’t have too much trouble getting ADRs.
We’ve gone several times during the free dining promos. The last time we were unable to secure any ADRs at all. Not even one. But by arriving at restaurants when they opened or at about 2:30, we were able to walk into every restaurant we wanted with minimal wait. The longest wait was for Canada at about 40 minutes. Don’t give up hope.
“I actually hope they do away with Free Dining.”
In talking to people within Disney, I’ve gotten the impression that this is pretty much the unanimous sentiment from within, too. It’s just such a popular–and highly marketable–discount. On their end, it sounds like a massive headache.
We’re thinking of going in September and we’re hoping for a 25 or 30% room discount. I’m so worried that we won’t be able to get any reservations due to hoarding! We’re not picky, but I’d like to take my son to one non-princess character meal.
Hi. In my attempt to be proactive and hopefully snag Free Dining, I’ve made reservations at Pop Century during historical FD dates. My plan and assuming I’ve hit the right dates, I’ll call once dates are out and snag Free Dining. Stupid plan?
Nope, that’s what a lot of people (me included) do.
I am planning something similar and hoping for feedback. We haven’t booked our room quite yet, but I’m hoping to book my dates (also at Pop) during a historically free dining time for rack rate, and then I can add on a different discount if I’m unable to snag the free dining promotion. I’m hoping that it’s possible to modify my reservation when it’s game time!
I did that as well, but I am wondering, can we add the free dining online or do we have to call?
I was wondering about that as well.
Unless the online system has a glitch, you won’t even need to call–you can modify your reservation online. Pretty simple process, so long as it works!
It didn’t work for me last year! Your room type will have to match exactly what the promotion availability is. If you book a standard view at a moderate hotel, and at that hotel, only the pool view rooms are available for the free dining promotion, you can’t modify your reservation. I think it’s easier to book the whole package the morning of the release vs making. A reservation and hoping it qualifies.
Seems like theres always a system glitch the days free dining becomes available? Perhaps you can tell me when do they usually offer either free dining or a room discount of 30% at the same time because I’ve never seen these both offered as a choice at the same time when I search? Also, just thought I’d mention, been to WDW quite a few times now and I’m always surprised whenever people say the room discount is a better deal! I think it depends where you stay & how many in your room. For us who can’t afford the deluxe resorts (or even moderates) if you Just stay at value resorts & get the free quick service & do quick service meals for most of your stay (we’re usually too busy for full service anyway) I think you could save just as much with free dining as a room discount if not more. Disney’s food prices are not cheap! You also get a refillable mug for coffee/drinks. Depending on what you eat, I think a couple could easily spend $60 -$80 / day on a couple of quick service meals each and their coffee/drinks and snacks each day. If you stay at a value resort for $140 – 150/ night and if your room discount is 25% that would only be saving you $35 – $37.50 / night. And the discount buying tickets elsewhere is not that big is it?
You’re right – the first time we went, FD was advantageous to our family. Our 2 1/2 year old was “free” by Disney standards, and we never even had to buy her any food because she either shared a kids’ meal with our 5 year-old or ate off of our plates. We had free QSDP and paid for one TS meal OOP. That one was a no-brainer. Our next trip, we wanted more TS meals, and decided to stay at a Moderate resort. That one was also an easy decision – it allowed us to do all the character meals we wanted. We would’ve never done a character meal every day if we were paying OOP. For our upcoming trip, it will be adults only. We’re going to tour differently. Comparing the two, we can actually save a lot of money if we pay OOP and opt for a room discount. So I think it depends on your family, your eating style, and your personal circumstances. FD isn’t FREE… nothing in life is. But it sure helps ease the frustration of dealing with sticker shock every time you pay for a meal.