Crowd Predictions for Disney After Hours Boo Bash Halloween Event
Disney After Hours Boo Bash is the new Halloween “party” coming to Magic Kingdom in Fall 2021. This post features our crowd predictions, best & worst dates and days of the week to attend, and why you should consider NOT buying tickets right away, even if you’re totally on board with Boo Bash.
Before we get going, I want to take one more crack at “defending” Disney After Hours Boo Bash. I’m not really sure why, maybe I’m just glutton for punishment? To be crystal clear, I’m not claiming the event is fairly priced, let alone a great value or a must-buy. To the contrary, I think most Walt Disney World fans should not purchase Boo Bash tickets.
What I’m defending is the underlying decision by Walt Disney World to hold Boo Bash in place of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party (MNSSHP), the underlying motivations, and the misconception that this is a cash grab relative to the alternative. While I don’t have exact numbers, I am confident MNSSHP is more lucrative for Disney than the After Hours events…
In the past, Walt Disney World has capped capacity at a significantly lower level for the After Hours events than for the Halloween and Christmas parties. We’re talking less than half. On top of that, far fewer After Hours events typically sell out each season than do the two holiday parties.
There’s also the reality that there are usually far more MNSSHP nights. In an average recent year, there have been around 33-36 Halloween Parties. After Hours usually has far fewer dates per “season,” which is reflective of lower demand. To that point, Disney After Hours Boo Bash has 23 nights this fall.
Some quick back-of-the-envelope math should thus make pretty clear that Disney After Hours Boo Bash will generate far less revenue for Walt Disney World than would offering Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party this fall. Even assuming higher costs for the latter (due to labor for more entertainment), After Hours is still significantly less profitable. It’s not even close.
It should go without saying, but cost to the consumer is not the only relevant factor in revenue and profits. If it were, Club 33 memberships and VIP tours would be more lucrative than single day tickets for Walt Disney World. In reality, the latter is significant and the former are a drop in the bucket.
If all of this is true, why is Walt Disney World holding Boo Bash this year instead of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party? The assumption, as with all things before it that were modified, is “to accommodate current health and safety measures” and that anything that “draws big crowds will be on hiatus this year.”
That’s not a reasonable assumption. Look around at everything that has changed or been relaxed in the last month and extrapolate what Halloween entertainment will be possible by mid-August based upon that. The answer should be pretty much everything.
The real, primary issue is the World’s Most Magical Celebration, which is a point we made back when Boo Bash was announced. To reiterate, Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary Celebration kicks off on October 1, 2021. Much of that will be centered around Magic Kingdom.
Even if this were a totally normal year, running an After Hours event in October would make more sense than Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. On a related note and for that very same reason, Disney After Hours Boo Bash is not running at all from September 24 to October 4, 2021. Normal park hours will need to be much longer due to attendance forecasts during the kick-off week of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary, so it’s not feasible to have any hard ticket event those nights.
Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party requires closing Magic Kingdom at 6 pm either 3 or 4 nights per week. Even in a normal year, this creates a logistical nightmare. That early closing is enough to push crowds away from Magic Kingdom on those dates–and to Magic Kingdom on non-party nights. Suffice to say, that event artificially manipulates attendance patterns to an extreme and almost unmanageable degree.
In fact, our October Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World explains why you should do your daytime Magic Kingdom visit on a party night even though you’ll have significantly fewer hours in the park. It’s because the crowds are super low on party days but crushing on non-party nights. (Crowds have also been crushing on MNSSHP nights–see “Is Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party Too Crowded?“)
In part, this roller coaster crowd dynamic is because of the huge difference in day guest park hours on MNSSHP nights v. non-party nights. It’s also because Happily Ever After was not shown on party nights.
With that all in mind, let’s envision October 2021, a month we already know is going to be very busy because of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary and current hotel bookings. Add a fireworks show and other new nighttime entertainment to the mix, for potentially the first time at Magic Kingdom in over a year and a half. Now put a paywall around those evening offerings for half of the week. What do you think would happen with crowds on non-party nights? How do you think that would be perceived by guests? How would you perceive it?!
There’s plenty to dislike about Disney After Hours Boo Bash. It’s an inadequate (indirect) replacement for Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. There are ways it sets a potentially concerning precedent. I get all of that. Complaining about the event is certainly your prerogative; I’d simply advise gaming out the alternative and broader implications before making snap judgments.
Start by looking at this from the perspective of a non-attendee, which you almost certainly would be some other day during your trip. On a Boo Bash night, Magic Kingdom will have fireworks and nighttime entertainment for day guests, the park will close at 9 pm, and it won’t screw with crowd distribution over the course of the entire week. On a MNSSHP night, there would be no fireworks or nighttime entertainment for day guests, the park would close at 6 pm, and crowds would be miserable on non-party nights.
One of those scenarios is objectively better for Walt Disney World guests who choose not to pay upcharge prices.
To “prove” that I’m not just shilling for Walt Disney World here, I’ll make another recommendation: do not buy Disney After Hours Boo Bash tickets in advance.
It’s possible I’ve missed it or this will change, but nowhere in the event details do I see an advance purchase discount. This is critical, as it means there’s no “penalty” for purchasing your tickets on the day of the event. (Even if there were, you could always buy After Hours tickets the night beforehand and accomplish substantially the same thing.)
While the overwhelming majority of Walt Disney World fans are disappointed or upset about Disney After Hours Boo Bash, some of you are excited about it and eager to buy tickets ASAP. We’d caution against that unless you absolutely know you want to attend, and don’t care about how crowded it is.
Keep in mind that After Hours is fundamentally a low crowd event–the entertainment is the icing, not the cake. The promise of low crowds is the reason to attend, so if it does not offer that–or you don’t find yourself needing that, it’s arguably a pointless purchase.
There are two elements to this. Let’s start with “not needing it.”
Disney After Hours Boo Bash is occurring over the course of two months—August and September—that typically have low crowds even during normal years. This year, we’re forecasting a greater-than-normal lull from mid-August through the third week of September as fans postpone trips in the lead-up to Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary (see our updated Best & Worst Months to Visit Walt Disney World in 2021-2022).
If that ends up being accurate, you’ll encounter low crowds during your days in Magic Kingdom while visiting from mid-August through mid to late September. You thus won’t need to pay extra for an event that promises more or less the same thing.
Our forecast could very well be wrong. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, crowd calendars are unreliable right now as we’re going through an unprecedented time. If our crowd forecast woefully underestimates early fall crowds, simply buy Disney After Hours Boo Bash tickets during your visit–no harm, no foul.
The reason we’d recommend waiting until closer to your travel dates is to assess ticket sales and event attendance levels. Yet again, the selling point of the After Hours events is low crowds. If Boo Bash is not delivering that, it’s definitely not worth the money.
To refresh our recollections, we combed through past blog post comments about prior After Hours events to see reader reactions to the event. Most reviews were glowing. However, there were quite a few–not an insignificant number–of complaints about some nights being oversold and waits being longer than advertised or anticipated.
While some guests are eager to purchase tickets for Disney After Hours Boo Bash before it sells out, we’d be highly apprehensive about attending the event on any night that sells out. Instead of having FOMO about dates selling out, it should bring a sense of relief–who wants to attend a low crowds event on a night with higher crowds?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Walt Disney World will lower the attendance cap for Disney After Hours Boo Bash, all nights will sell out quickly as a result, the experience will be blissful, and those who follow our words of warning here will be cursing at following our bad advice. (Full disclosure: we plan on purchasing tickets for opening night as soon as they go on sale–but we also write a blog that covers Walt Disney World.)
A lot of things are possible right now, and Walt Disney World continues to surprise us. However, what’s theoretically possible and what’s likely are two very different things. It’s also possible Journey into Imagination will be restored to its former glory and SpectroMagic will rise from the ashes. Neither things are likely.
If past precedent is any indication, attendance caps for hard ticket events only increase and never decrease. Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party have gotten progressively busier over the years (save for the off-season or anomalies like hurricane-induced cancellations). It would also appear that After Hours trended towards higher ticket sales before the schedule was cut short early last year.
Ultimately, this is why we’re mostly indifferent to somewhat optimistic about After Hours replacing a hard ticket party on a one-off basis (realistically, probably two-off). If you do plan on ignoring our advice and want to buy tickets right away, your best bet from a low crowds perspective is attending on a Tuesday night. From a value-added perspective, going in October (when daytime crowds will almost certainly be higher) instead of August or September is also savvy.
Finally, don’t misconstrue this as us bashing Boo Bash. It has the potential to be a phenomenal event for those willing and able to splurge, wanting to buy their way out of crowds, and not expecting Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party (again, they’re nothing alike). That’ll be especially true if October ends up being bonkers during the day and most other guests balk at the high pricing for the event. In that scenario and for that type of guest, Disney After Hours Boo Bash might be a breath of fresh air that is well worth the money.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
What are your thoughts about all of this? Does the added explanation here make you less apprehensive or angry about Disney After Hours Boo Bash running instead of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party this year? Pleased that, at minimum, you’ll get longer park hours on non-event nights? Will your family be buying or sitting this Halloween event out? Do you agree or disagree with our perspective on this? Are you disappointed that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party won’t be happening, or is Boo Bash a superior (or at least sufficient) alternative for you? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
If you buy regular tickets for MK during the day, do they kick you out before Boo Bash? If so, at what time and how to they manage to get all those people out of the park?
I purchased tickets for Boo Bash on Oct 19, and it is now sold out, so I’m not sure if that is a good thing. It will be my first Halloween event so it sounds exciting even though the Not So Scary party sounded like fun. Hopefully, it will be a great evening.
Thanks for the extra analysis and thoughts. Very helpful for many guests. In the end, I guess the proof will be in the pudding and we’ll hear back from those who attend the first dates. Despite concerns, I know most fans really want these seasonal parties to be a success and for those who invest in $ tickets to have a great time and feel it was money well spent. Above all, even though we know we can’t really have a return to normal and what we loved for years, most of us now want the comfort of some predictability and tradition. I really crave the old pre-pandemic WDW but know everything changes and not always for the better. Time will tell.
I just got the Boo Bash tickets for the first night (8/10). I got them over the phone and the cast member told me that they can only be booked over the phone.
Unlike other “After Hours” events, Disney is not making the claim of having smaller crowds for the Boo Bash. Not all variables are equal as you stated. There is now 3 hours of labor vs. 5, no fireworks nor parades (which requires a lot of labor between the engineers, performers, and the folks doing crowd control to name a few). The price being charged is at least 67% greater than 2019’s MNSSHP, so even if the crowd is just 45-50% of the 2019 levels. Also, “After Hours” events are just doing lots of rides, where the parties are much more than that. I can’t imagine how they are going to ruin MVMCP if this is any indicator. In the end, Disney is still way ahead of the game. And we didn’t even talk about how Halloween night is the big cash cow.
OK, so how do you buy tickets if you are a guest of a the Yacht club on one of the nights. I have been all over the site and also tried to call an get a strange I can not complete as dial message. ????
“Guests of select WDW Resort Hotels can purchase tickets beginning June 8.”
That’s today. Anyone able to get tix?
I’m over here trying to figure out how this plays into a CHRISTMAS-time trip. Going the first week of December and wondering if we’re going to see After Hours, MVMCP, or nothing.
Hi Tom,
Not sure if I have missed your comments or not, have you heard anything in regards to Halloween time at Disneyland this year?
Thanks,
Debbie
Considering our trip falls during the second week of Boo Bash, and we greatly prefer low-crowd night touring during August, we will get Boo Bash tickets..
But here is my fear:
To what extent does WDW truly put a low cap on After-Hours sales? Versus the “natural cap” imposed by the relatively high prices?
Considering this is the first special event to return to WDW in a year and a half…. Considering that it is being viewed by many as a MNSSHP replacement, and considering there are indeed fewer “party nights” than in the past….
Then I’m a bit nervous that demand will be higher than After-Hour events in the past. So to the extent WDW expects the high price to serve as a natural attendance cap, I’m afraid of “over-sold” events.
Further, to compare it to Villain’s Night AH: They had stage shows multiple times per night, which further served to draw people away from the rides and keep lines down.
So I am slightly concerned that the lines might not be especially low.
Still… it’s an expensive late night event. While a family with young kids might pay $80 for a Halloween party where they can get 3 hours of enjoyment before 9pm, they would be less likely to pay $130 for an event that doesn’t even start until 9pm. Tuesday night parties shouldn’t draw huge crowds of locals, who may have to work the next morning.
Worst case scenario: lines are not as gloriously low as past AH events, but far better than daytime touring.
I share all of these concerns (aside from the lack of a stage show–the earlier ones were never significant draws), but I can think of a worse worst case scenario than yours. 😉
Thank you, Tom!
Hi Tom! We always find your articles and analysis so helpful! Do you know how to purchase tickets tomorrow for resort guests? I can’t find any info about what time they go on sale or if they will be available online or by phone or both. Also do you think the first Boo Bash date will sell out quickly? Thanks!
I don’t know the answers to the time or online v. phone question, but my guess is around 6 am and both.
The first date is always a wildcard. Lots of fans who want to do everything first, plus vloggers and bloggers makes it more likely. If possible, we always recommend the second date of anything as opposed to the first.
Tom, outstanding analysis of this event and the wisdom of Disney holding this after hours event in lieu of MNSSHP. You brought up several points that had not even crossed my mind. Thanks for all your hard work!
We are doing the same. I they are looking forward to going. Not sure I confuse them or look for a deal … this was shock in price; but the girls are up to it so far. Just afraid of missing out on tickets for Sept 10th. Also, if there are discounts as asked for military that would be great to know.
Tom, I am going to Disney World the week of October 25th. I have five day tickets and planned Magic Kingdom for two of those days. Both days happen to fall on a day that Boo Bash is held. I have no interest in attending Boo Bash. How do you think that will affect my day there? Assuming fireworks are back, that is definitely something I want to see. Do you think my planned dates are best left alone or I should consider switching a day?
At this point, I don’t see a reason to switch days. There’s the possibility the non-party dates will close an hour or two later (or maybe not), but if so, that could very well be offset by higher crowd levels.
You’ll get fireworks and whatever other nighttime entertainment is offered either way.
Hi. I am going to Disney World for the 1st time Sept 26th – 30th for my 50th birthday. Well be in MK the 27th. Do you think it will be overly busy because this is the week leading up to the 50th celebration?
Hi. I am going to Disney World for the 1st time Sept 26th – 30th for my 50th birthdau Well be in MK the 27th. Do you think it will be overly busy because this is the week leading up to the 50th celebration?
We’ll be there Oct 29-Nov 8 and planning to attend the Oct 29 Boo Bash. Do you think tickets will sell out for that date? I read tickets go on sale on Jun 8 for select resorts. Is Pop Century included in those resorts? And can you purchase online or do you have to call?
We are going – we have a girls trip planned in September and it will be one of our splurges.
Tom, do you think a military discount price will be offered for Boo Bash? I messaged Disney directly and was told that there has “not been a discount mentioned at this time” but, “they have had discounts on special event tickets in the past”. The only date my family will be able to attend is Tuesday, September 21st. I was going to buy early to make sure we secured tickets but, not sure if I should wait to see if a discount is offered. Any advice??