July 2026 is Disney World’s Least Busy Month Since September 2021.

We’re less than one week into July 2026, but it’s already been the slowest month at Walt Disney World since September 2021. Wait times over the Independence Day holiday weekend were predictably low, despite sold out park reservations for Annual Passholders and resort restrictions to ensure adequate fireworks viewing for Magic Kingdom area overnight hotel guests.

Also predictable were the reactions on social media, expressing surprise about the parks being “dead” or “ghost towns” along with fans offering their own favorite theories as to why this happened. This post covers wait times data and discusses the real reasons for lower crowds during what used to be a popular holiday.

None of this will come as a surprise to regular readers of this blog. This is a point we’ve been stressing for years, most recently in Should You Visit Disney World in Summer? That post offers our verdict on whether visiting this time of year is “worth it,” which basically comes down to weather and longer days versus lower crowds and better deals. There’s more to it than that, but that’s the nutshell version of the salient points.

Summer hasn’t been peak season since 2016. There were a couple of years that were anomalies during the pent-up demand period, which is probably a big reason why some fans are being caught off-guard by the summer slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2026. Because it hasn’t been the case that summer has consistently been slow during the last decade.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom that Memorial Day through Labor Day is the busiest stretch of the year in Florida, summer crowds are no longer unbearable (just the weather). Summer no longer being peak season comes as a surprise to some, but the even bigger shock is that the week of Independence Day is the slowest of the slow summer weeks to visit Walt Disney World.

This long weekend used to have 10/10 crowds and be among the busiest holidays of the year. That is no longer even remotely the case. To the contrary, it has become below-average. It’s typically less busy than either Memorial Day or Labor Day, which are also not popular holidays for travel to Walt Disney World. (All of the ones after Labor Day until the following Memorial Day are, though!)

For those who aren’t well-versed in this topic, the Fourth of July has been a quieter holiday since pent-up demand ended.

Independence Day 2023 was downright dead at Walt Disney World. It was such a hot topic that it drew an explanation from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the light crowds to an exhaustion of pent-up demand and bad weather. He wasn’t totally wrong, but pricing and aggressive ticket blockouts were the bigger culprit.

Independence Day 2024 crowds were again unexpectedly low, even minus blockouts. Walt Disney World as a whole had an average wait time of 26 minutes on July 4, 2024. That was down as compared to the last two weeks of June, which had average wait times of 35 minutes (second to last week) and 31 minutes (last week).

Fourth of July 2025 crowds were similarly slow. The first week of July had a 26 minute average and crowd level of 1/10. Sunday, July 6th was the slowest day of summer (and the entire year up to that point). This was a sharp contrast to the last week of June, which was tied for the busiest week of summer.

We have consistently predicted that the first week or so of July 2026 would NOT be busy. To the contrary, we have been imploring our readers to target this particular week for their summer vacations for over a year.

We went as far as to add the week around Independence Day to our list of the 10 Best and 10 Worst Weeks to Visit Walt Disney World in 2026 & 2027. We made the case to visit during this specific week of summer last November in a standalone post: Best Week to Do Walt Disney World in Summer 2026 Just Got Better!

This was despite the holiday falling on a Saturday and Walt Disney World doing more to promote the Fourth of July for America’s 250th Anniversary. While acknowledging that the U.S. Semiquincentennial could be a wild card, we’ve pointed to several signals suggesting that it wouldn’t be bad. None of this made a difference, as many fans still questioned whether this year would be different, and disregarded our advice.

Against that backdrop, let’s see how our predictions performed via wait times courtesy of thrill-data.com:

Let’s start with a look at monthly wait time data, which shows every month since the beginning of 2019.

We’re only 6 days into July 2026, so this is obviously a very incomplete picture. Nevertheless, we’re offering this view because the month is already split into two weeks, and because this underscores just how slow July has been thus far.

Currently, the last month to have lower crowd levels than July 2026 was September 2021. That was back during the phased reopening, when the delta variant and reinstated face mask rules caused a surge in cancellations. It is safe to say that July 2026 won’t end up being that slow.

Here’s the weekly view, which shows the summer slowdown in action since around Memorial Day.

There are typically two peaks in summer. The first is at the end of June, and it did not happen this year. The second is usually in the second half of July and into early August. That one is still a couple of weeks away. It’ll be interesting to see whether it actually happens.

Usually, the week of Independence Day is the least-busy of July. That’ll probably be the case again in 2026, but if the second half doesn’t get appreciably busier, it’s entirely possible that July 2026 stays the slowest month since September 2021. Last month only ended up with an average wait time of 27 minutes, and July is usually slower than June.

All July needs is a 26 minute average to tie with 3 other months for the slowest since September 2021. Also notable is that August is usually less busy than July, and September is typically the slowest of all. In which case, it’s possible that crowd levels in September 2026 rival September 2021.

Here’s a look at the daily data for Walt Disney World as a whole.

July 1st was the high water mark, with 3/10 crowd levels and 30 minute average wait times. Every day since has been 1/10, with all of those dates having average wait times of 25 minutes or less. Sunday, July 5, 2026 was the least busy at Walt Disney World not just in all of 2026, but since October 28th of last year. There were a few dates last August and September that were even lighter, but nothing outside of that.

July 5, 2026 had an average wait time of 19 minutes, which is absurdly low. We’re talking headliners with posted wait times of 30-45 minutes, and walk-ons at most other attractions, regardless of posted wait times. (One reader reported doing Avatar Flight of Passage with under 15 minute actual waits throughout the day.)

Not all parks were equally uncrowded on July 4, 2026. Magic Kingdom outperformed slightly; EPCOT did so massively, with a 7/10 crowd level. These two parks being busiest is particularly unsurprising since they’re the only two with special Fourth of July fireworks shows and there’s currently a ticket deal that prevents Park Hopping.

It’s also worth pointing out that crowd levels are statistical, meaning they measure wait times as opposed to park congestion. Usually, wait times are a good proxy for crowds, but not always. Magic Kingdom and EPCOT fireworks viewing areas on Independence Day are a prime example of this exception, as they were undoubtedly very busy. (That’s precisely why Walt Disney World “sold out” of park reservations for APs, despite low wait times.)

Then there’s Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, which were extremely slow by any measure. Both parks had their lowest wait times of 2026 on the Fourth of July, and were even lower than the last few years. Hollywood Studios had an average wait time of 20 minutes, which is extremely low for DHS. That’s lower than any day I’ve visited DHS since the COVID days.

With wait times data out of the way, let’s talk possible theories as to why the Independence Day holiday weekend hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…

Economic Anxiety

The economy is something that inevitably comes up in the comments to posts like this, and understandably so. At the same time, any theory that can be contradicted by higher crowds in the last few months or the next few months is off the table.

Meaning that higher prices, fewer perks, and the company’s reputation do not explain the lower summer crowds trend. We figured this was worth a reminder as Walt Disney World just released October through December discounts, which offered abysmal availability. Already, many resorts are sold out, and Disney’s CFO has indicated that bookings for the coming quarters are up year-over-year.

This isn’t to say Walt Disney World doesn’t have a pricing problem. It does as we’ve discussed in countless posts, including Is Walt Disney World Too Expensive for Middle Class Americans? But across-the-board price increases do not explain why summer and Independence Day, in particular, continue to see year-over-year wait times decrease.

None of that really matters here, as there’s key data that tells a fairly conclusive story. The TSA reported that the agency was preparing for the heavy volume over the Fourth of July holiday period. The TSA was expecting to screen nearly 18.7 million travelers at U.S. airport security checkpoints between Tuesday, June 30, and Monday, July 6, 2026. That is up over recent years, albeit only slightly.

For its part, AAA projected that 72.2 million travelers will head 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day holiday travel period between Saturday, June 27 and Sunday, July 5. This year’s domestic travel forecast surpasses last year’s record of 71.8 million travelers, but the increase is smaller than recent year-over-year gains.

The number of travelers driving and flying to their destinations is relatively flat compared to last year, while travel by other modes, including cruises, is the category seeing the biggest increase. According to AAA, 85% of Americans traveling for Independence Day are expected to drive to their destinations, despite gas prices reaching four-year highs. Last year, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.15.

The bottom line is that whatever issues might exist with the U.S. economy, the American consumer is still spending freely and going places for Independence Day. It’s certainly not impacting travel as a whole, although it could affect what consumers are doing once arriving at their destinations. In addition to cruises increasing in popularity, it is also likely that consumers on the lower end of the economic spectrum are “trading down” for lower-cost beach trips, U.S. National Parks, and other outdoor destinations.

Pricing

This is a tricky one. Thanks to aggressive discounts, it’s possible to take a less expensive trip to Walt Disney World during Summer 2026 than any other season. There are fantastic resort room, ticket, and even dining discounts available, and bargain hunters can stack these discounts for their cheapest trip since 2018.

These deals have helped and definitely moved the needle for the last two years, but there’s a big asterisk to this. These promos have also attracted more cost-sensitive consumers…and you know what that demo will do? Comparison shop. 

The Independence Day holiday weekend is still the most expensive timeframe of the summer season to visit, and that’s just accounting for tickets and resorts. Almost every aspect of traveling over the holiday weekend is more expensive, since travel prices are largely demand-driven. As compared to the rest of the summer season, this means higher average airfare, rental cars, off-site hotels, and more.

Annual Pass Blockouts

Saving the best theory for last is Annual Passes. This is a multifaceted one. First, both the Pixie Pass and the Pirate Pass–two affordable admission options for locals–are blocked out the bulk of Independence Day weekend. That means even more Floridians than normal wouldn’t have been in the parks.

We’ve long suspected that there’s a disproportionate number of Pixie Dust Annual Passes in circulation, in large part because it was the only AP tier that was sold for over a year. Although that hasn’t been the case for a while, inertia has probably kept the discrepancy going. Floridians got used to paying a lower price, found it worked out just fine for them, and didn’t upgrade when it came time to renew. And the price for both the Pixie Dust and Pirate Passes is certainly right, especially for cost-conscious locals.

Walt Disney World doesn’t release statistical breakdowns of its AP population, so this is only theory. However, it’s also corroborated by crowds. Whenever these passes (especially Pixie Dust) are blocked out beyond their normal weekends, it shows up in wait times data, both in the actual blockout and the lead-up to that.

There are countless other examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney fix” before a blockout and then lower crowds during it. It also happens every year in January when the blockouts lift, and occurs ahead of Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Spring Break. This explanation is now well-supported by the last four years of data.

Fewer Floridians

My other theory with regard to the local popular is less supported by data, but it’s one that is anecdotally accurate in our circles. It’s that fewer Floridian families and friend groups all have the higher tiers of Annual Passes (or APs at all), and are thus opting for holiday gatherings and activities that everyone can do to avoid exclusion.

Whereas it used to be the case that entire friend groups had higher tier Annual Passes at Walt Disney World or Disneyland and made the parks their default hangout spot, that’s now not the case. Anecdotally, I’d also add that this seems interconnected with weather.

Independence Day gatherings are often all-day affairs (whether at the parks or elsewhere) for locals, with the high heat and humidity making that less desirable–especially when you can drop in for an evening and catch fireworks any ole night later in July. All of this combined makes backyard barbecues, pool days, etc., more appealing to Floridians than the parks.

Ultimately, my strong suspicion is it’s the relative lack of locals that are the ones really moving the needle on lower wait times over Independence Day at Walt Disney World. Meaning that if you took the actual tourist attendance of the holiday weekend and added the average Annual Passholder attendance for this summer, the number would come out looking fairly close to normal Summer 2026 days at Walt Disney World. Maybe even higher than normal.

With a growing Floridian fanbase, the presence or absence of locals can have a big impact on crowds. The most pronounced example of this for years has been when blockouts lift in early January. The lighter Fourth of July is basically just the mirror image of that dynamic.

But again, “normal” by Summer 2026 standards is still a shadow of what things were like before 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for at least a couple of years. It was not a peak season holiday like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s Eve, etc., but it also wasn’t moderate–like Memorial Day or Labor Day.

If you’re looking for an actionable takeaway, it’s that this week should once again be the best of Summer 2027. (The previous recommendation in our best & worst weeks list is June 29 to July 4, 2027, but I’ll probably tweak that to start and end later.) At this point, there’s absolutely no reason to expect higher crowds in 2027. If anything, my very early prediction would be lower year-over-year wait times. But that’s premature at this point, and beyond the scope of this post.

Beyond, it’ll be interesting to see whether there’s a bounce-back in crowds after the holiday weekend concludes. Late June ended up not seeing its normal mid-summer spike, which is unusual. Usually, there’s a second spike at the end of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘last hurrah’ summer travelers taking trips before school goes back into session.

After this weekend’s blockouts conclude, I could see a gradual increase in crowd levels through the end of July 2026. It’s safe to say those numbers, whatever they are, will drop in early August. The big question is whether the next few months will drop below September 2021 crowd levels. Those were really low for several reasons that are non-factors in 2026, but the current trajectory would put September 2026 right around that ultra-low level. We’ll keep you posted!

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Your Thoughts

Do you agree or disagree with our assessment as to why Independence Day holiday weekend crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree entirely, and think it’s been as busier than normal? Any observations about attendance trends during the fall months that follow this summer dip? Hearing your feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts or questions below in the comments!