Magic Kingdom’s Third Least Busy Day of 2023!
Magic Kingdom just had its third slowest day of 2023! I was in the park all doing rides, testing new Early Entry and rope drop strategy, and checking out crowd patterns. This Walt Disney World park report covers what it was like and why, how this compares to other days–including the same date last year–and other assorted commentary.
For longtime readers or those who have consulted our August 2023 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World, a lot of this probably isn’t going to come as a surprise. The slow day in question was August 11, which was the first Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party night of the year, ushering in the start of the three-plus month Party Season.
Our tried and true advice for Party Season is visiting Magic Kingdom during the daytime hours on the same dates that Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party is held in the evening. On these dates, Magic Kingdom operates from 8 am until 6 pm, which means the park opens an hour early and closes 4 hours earlier than normal. Most tourists see that 6 pm closing time and do the intuitive thing: go somewhere else!
This happens reliably and predictably. As we’ve discussed elsewhere, Magic Kingdom crowd dynamics during party season has been one of the key discussion points of our August through December crowd calendars for several years. It’s actually one of the easiest “predictions” we make.
Those are air quotes around prediction because this pattern has played out predictably and consistently for years. It’s akin to “predicting” that Peter Pan’s Flight and Seven Dwarfs Mine Train will have higher wait times than Carousel of Progress. Most guests do the logical thing, not wanting to miss out on 3-4 hours, including nighttime and the Happily Ever After fireworks in Magic Kingdom.
As such, we’ve been advising those who want lower crowds–or who have Park Hopper tickets–to start their day in Magic Kingdom on evenings when Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party or Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party is held. Typically, you can accomplish more in fewer hours because the crowds are lower.
Some readers have doubted this or think it’ll stop working as “word gets out,” and instead opted for the counter-counterintuitive approach of avoiding Magic Kingdom. But in plain terms, that’s just the intuitive approach, and it’s what the vast majority of Magic Kingdom visitors are doing. Most park-goers aren’t reading blogs like this, and many who do don’t follow the advice. Don’t overthink it or try playing 4D chess–this strategy has worked for at least the last decade. It’s highly unlikely that 2023 will be the year things suddenly change.
As for the other reasons why this particular day in Magic Kingdom was the third slowest of the year, there are actually a couple. For one, most Central Florida school districts went back into session the day prior, so locals were less likely to make weekday visits. Same goes for families throughout the South, or anywhere where school has already–or is about to–go back into session.
Then there was the weather. While we were slightly dismissive of the low Independence Day crowds being driven by the heat, it’s probably a bigger factor right now. Central Florida is in the midst of an unprecedented heat wave, with daily excessive heat warnings for much of the past week. It’s been a brutal summer, but it’s gotten even worse recently; that plus the duration of the record high temperatures has likely put even more of a dent in crowds.
Although it wasn’t quite as bad as the previous day, the feels like temperature was triple digits before park opening with the actual temperature in the 90s and above throughout the day. I’m no stranger to summers in Central Florida, and this past week was the worst weather I’ve ever experienced at Walt Disney World.
While schools going back into session, fall off-season arriving, and the record heat wave were all contributing factors, this day being the third slowest of the year is mostly about Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party. (The only other days that beat it not-so-coincidentally had early closings, too.)
MNSSHP really throws a monkey wrench into crowd dynamics at Magic Kingdom, pushing attendance higher on the dates it’s not occurring and lower on days of the event. That’s why both the Thursday before and Saturday through Monday afterwards were busier, despite school being back in session and those dates also being hot.
Against that backdrop, let’s turn to the wait times in Magic Kingdom, courtesy of Thrill-Data.com. The average posted wait time across all attractions in Magic Kingdom was 20 minutes, which is a 1/10 crowd level. To put that into perspective, this is as contrasted with average wait times of 30-32 minutes during the 4 weekdays leading up to this, for 3/10 to 4/10 crowd levels.
However, this is actually up as compared to the same date last year! For the first day of the 2022 MNSSHP, the average wait time was 18 minutes at Magic Kingdom. Two minutes might not seem like much, but it is over the course of the day, and would normally represent a full crowd level.
It’s tough to explain the why of this given that crowd levels have been trending downwards year-over-year, especially given that Splash Mountain was included in wait times last year and TRON Lightcycle Run was excluded from them this year (even with the virtual queue, the standby wait easily exceeded 20 minutes on average). However, we’ll discuss a couple of possible theories later in the post.
Anecdotally, my first hand experiences with “feels like” crowds on both days (this year and last) corroborates that 2023 was slightly busier. “Congestion” is a strong word to use given that neither one were particularly packed with people, but August 11, 2023 felt noticeably busier relative to the start of the Party Season last year.
I was honestly a bit surprised and taken aback by this. I would’ve guessed that the few guests in Magic Kingdom would all be racing from ride to ride, or chasing that sweet, sweet air-conditioning whenever possible. I expected to be the only dummy out in walkways taking photos of pumpkin decorations and getting PhotoPass Magic Shots for Halloween, but I was hardly alone.
Again, it’s not like Magic Kingdom was even remotely busy (far, far from it), but I honestly went in expecting this to be the least busy day of the year–not “only” third slowest.
To put what an incredibly slow (even by 1/10 crowd level standards) day at Magic Kingdom looks like in 2023, above is a graph of average wait times over the course of the day. Whenever we discuss low crowds, some readers who were in the parks inevitably mention that certain rides had hour-plus posted wait times.
Unfortunately, that’s how it works–this isn’t 2007-2017 anymore. You will be hard pressed to find a single day in 2023 when Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Peter Pan’s Flight don’t average at least 60 minute posted wait times. (To put that into perspective, the current averages for both are ~80 minutes, and that is still considered low!) Crowd levels are relative, not absolute. If saving 20 minutes on a headliner is not a big deal to you because the posted wait time is still an hour, this type of post is not for you. (And honestly…maybe Walt Disney World isn’t for you?)
With that said, I managed to do both Seven Dwarfs Mine Train and Peter Pan’s Flight twice during the day, and on both occasions, my actual wait time was far less than the posted wait time. In fact, my longest actual wait time of the entire day was 23 minutes for Space Mountain, which was an unforced error on my part because I timed it poorly. But in any case, a maximum wait of 23 minutes is not too shabby! (I probably also waited slightly longer for TRON Lightcycle Run upon returning to the virtual queue, but I forgot to time it.)
Most attractions had actual wait times that were 10 minutes or less. Some were “however long it takes to walk through the mostly-empty queue.” For many attractions, wait times were dictated more by Lightning Lane utilization than standby line length.
It was almost comical to see only a handful of guests in the standby queue, waiting for the steady stream of Lightning Lane guests to subside. This is always “a thing,” but it’s not as noticeable on busier days because both queues have a decent number of guests in them.
Other attractions had little-to-no Lightning Lane usage, meaning they were a walk-on for standby guests. “it’s a small world” is a good example of this. Despite the 15 minute posted time, the actual wait was however long it took to walk through the queue.
Speaking of Genie+ and Lightning Lanes, there are a couple other things I thought were interesting. First, the established trend of per-park pricing for Genie+ continued for the start of Party Season, meaning that Magic Kingdom was just as expensive as the Park Hopper pricing. I’m betting this was an oversight, and I would not expect this to remain the case as Party Season progresses. Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom should flip-flop in this scenario.
On a positive note, Genie+ utilization was clearly lower than it has been throughout the year. Because of that and the no re-ride rule, there was an obvious point when the ‘supply’ of Lightning Lane guests pretty much exhausted itself. Normally, that doesn’t happen for popular attractions like Peter Pan’s Flight, Space Mountain, or Jungle Cruise. There’s a steady stream of guests coming through the Lightning Lane. If anything, it’s worse during the middle of the day–the standby lines can come to a crawl.
That’s typically not the case on days of the parties at Magic Kingdom. If you simply wait until around 2 pm for headliners, standby lines moved steadily because everyone who bought Genie+ had already booked and done the headliners. So that was nice!
Another thing I noticed, which is consistent with Party Season last year, was that character meet & greets had elevated wait times during the day. I haven’t inquired about it yet this year, but this was previously due to staffing, and needing more of those Cast Members for shifts during MNSSHP and MVMCP, meaning fewer were scheduled during the daytime hours. I can’t imagine the explanation is any different this year.
Last year, this added a new wrinkle to Genie+ at Magic Kingdom during Party Season, as Lightning Lane supply went far faster than normal for all of the characters and caused us to change our Magic Kingdom Lightning Lane Rankings. I’d expect the same to happen again this year, but will give it another MNSSHP or two before updating that.
More character experiences with posted wait times being back as compared to last year–and most of them having wait times higher than 20 minutes–at least partial explains the year-over-year increase in the average wait time. It also didn’t help that Haunted Mansion had just come back up from refurbishment, that Pirates of the Caribbean has been having a lot of downtime woes, or that Hall of Presidents has been posting a perpetual 20-minute wait for some reason. Even taking all of that into account, like mentioned above, this day felt busier.
With that said, it was an incredibly productive day in Magic Kingdom. I’ll be back with a separate strategy report for rope drop and Early Entry, but I managed to accomplish a ton during the first couple hours of the day–even more than last year. Part of that is probably because the weather “incentivized” me to do more rides, seeking shade and air-conditioning rather than doing my normal routine of wandering aimlessly and taking photos.
Suffice to say, all of this is exactly why our zig when they zag recommendation has been to do Magic Kingdom on days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and to Park Hop somewhere else around 4 pm. (The park closes at 6 pm, but we recommend bouncing around when the party mix-in starts since crowds and lines tend to increase by 4:30 pm.)
Again, even though Magic Kingdom has longer hours on these days, you will get less done than you could before 4 pm on a party day. So long as you’re comfortable missing the Happily Ever After fireworks or are fine watching from a resort restaurant or the TTC, we highly recommend doing your days in Magic Kingdom on party dates.
Ultimately, that’s how the day prior to the first 2023 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party played out at Magic Kingdom…in predictable fashion but somehow with even hotter temperatures and slightly higher wait times than last year. Going forward, the story should be pretty similar for all regular days before around 4 pm on MNSSHP nights.
Keep in mind that crowds will keep changing throughout Party Season. Fall attendance typically does not bottom out in mid-August, as many school districts are still on break until later in the month. The low point usually occurs after Labor Day, and we’d expect the same in September 2023. Towards the end of that month, attendance remains low but starts to trend upwards.
October usually sees a sharper spike, with November and December being even busier (with the exception of a few weeks between holidays). We are less confident in the degree of these crowd predictions for the holiday season, as they’re at least in part predicated on conventions and other group events. The point stands that crowds are not static–next month will be slower and October through December will be busier.
Regardless, this approach will remain ideal for the duration of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party seasons. When crowds change, that occurs across the board–meaning this advice will still be proportionately accurate. In other words, if it’s more or less busy on party days going forward, the circumstances will be similar for non-party days–meaning the benefit should remain approximately the same. Last October, crowd levels increased across the board, but the average wait time differential between party and non-party days actually increased.
We’ll have more on all of this in the coming days, weeks, and next month or so. This is my “busy” time of year as I work on field-testing, revising, and writing new strategy posts for Party Season and beyond. I’ve been in the parks every day for the last week (speaking of which, apologies for the lack of replies to comments–I’ll try to catch up later this week) with a bit more testing to do. After that, I’ll start working on putting together a range of other strategy posts for these party days and non-party days in Magic Kingdom.
As a general matter, August and September 2023 should be a relatively uncrowded months at Magic Kingdom (just avoid Mondays!), and across the board at Walt Disney World. Orange County Public Schools and Osceola County Public Schools have now started their first day of classes, and those districts have a disproportionate impact on crowd levels at Walt Disney World. Other districts around the South have also gone back into session, with the Midwest and Northeast next up to start their academic years.
Now, we just need the weather to cooperate for this to be a truly pleasant time to visit Magic Kingdom. While I’m loving the low crowds, I’m less keen on my shirt being soaked from sweat by the time I arrive at the bus stop. That comes with the territory and choosing to visit Walt Disney World during summer/early Halloween season, though. I’ll take unpleasant weather if it means gloriously uncrowded parks!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Magic Kingdom for daytime hours on a party night? What was your experience with crowds and wait times? Do you plan on visiting Magic Kingdom during the day before the 2023 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party? Or, is the loss of fireworks and having to leave by 6 pm a dealbreaker for you? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback—even when you disagree with us—is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Tom! We went to the Magic Kingdom on Friday the 11th — per your advice — and it was amazing!!!! We literally rode every ride there is and most with no waits. There was a 15 minute wait for the Jungle Cruise, but that was because they were swapping out a boat that was having audio difficulties. It was amazingly easy to get LL on any ride we wanted — many with a 20-30 minute posted wait, but with a return time in the next 5 minutes. I know you don’t recommend getting the G+ or ILL for the mine ride, but we did it anyway and it enhanced our experience tremendously. It was an exceedingly rare day and I doubt I’ll personally see anything like it again! Many many many thanks to you for the great advice!!! PS: I was keeping an eye out for you but I either didn’t recognize you when you went by or we never crossed paths. I would have said hello! (one last thing — if I had known the day before when we were at the Animal Kingdom that G+ was still a good idea — I would have purchased it. Our touring plans had us at the Safari ride at 9:00AM with a predicted wait of 8 minutes — we waited 55 minutes in the heat and G+ was available in the 9:00 hour. )
Thanks for sharing your experience, and sorry we didn’t cross paths.
I’ll actually vouch for TouringPlans on the Kilimanjaro Safaris wait time. It really should’ve been around 10-15 minutes at most, so their 8 minute estimate was likely a good prediction. I don’t know what could’ve happened (animal not moving from the road, delaying the ride?), but something must’ve gone really wrong if you had a 55 minute actual wait time!
My standby waits for KS the last couple weeks were under 15 minutes.
I know you said avoid Mondays, and I was planning to be at MK on Columbus Day, which is also a party morning. Should I move my reservation to somewhere else that day?
Party Mondays are the exception to that.
Just keep in mind that Columbus Day weekend is big for fall breaks, and is typically a time when Walt Disney World sees a huge surge of crowds. So it’ll likely be busier across the board.
I cannot view comments on this article. Is anyone else having that experience? The site says there are 33 comments but when I open the article it says no comments.
It usually takes me hours to see a comment *I* post from home. (New record of 18 hours while I was on vacation the other week!) Back to your comment, I’ve had the same experience since comments were at 3 or 5. Sometimes that happens to me, but not for the day or so this took to refresh.
I like party reports, but I *love* day of party reports! (I’d hold off until at least September if you’re not used to Florida humidity and heat.)
Do you think this will still be true on Labor Day? I know that’s not typically a busy holiday, but it is a holiday and a Monday. We are staying at the campground and I’m hoping to hop over early Monday to enjoy low waits, but I don’t know if there’s a better option…which park would you recommend for that day? (We also have park hopper)
Yeah, I do think it will.
I might hesitate on that if you said you did NOT have Park Hoppers, but with those, starting at Magic Kingdom is a no brainer.
Thoughts on going to Hollywood Studios on Jollywood nights during the day but skipping the party?
DHS won’t be closing much earlier (if at all) on Jollywood Nights dates, so there should not be a pronounced difference in crowds. That’s what we’ve seen with After Hours; I wouldn’t expect this to be any different.
We have been here since the 7th and this is not at all indicative to the crowd levels we have experienced. As we stood in 45-90 minutes rides at Hollywood Studios on this day, I actually said “Tom is right – nobody goes to MK on party days” when I checked the wait times throughout the day. We had to purchase Genie+ for our HS and both MK days to get to ride anything and a few of the LL were booked by late afternoon. After standing in line for 50 minutes for Tron on our first MK day, we followed your advice and waited for 1pm queue on our 2nd. The queue was filled immediately but we did get in. Our boarding group was finally called at 8 pm, boarded around 9:15 and we missed the fireworks. Other than rides that are always low (Dumbo, tea cups, etc), wait times were 45 or higher, even when posted times were lower. We have done 6 park days in the past 9 days, while watching wait times at all the parks and have never experienced crowds to this degree. We have visited during multiple school breaks during Feb & April and this trip, we learned that we only thought it was bad then.
DHS definitely looked like it was the default alternative to Magic Kingdom on the first MNSSHP day. That’s actually not what we saw last year, a change that I’d attribute to the return of Fantasmic and disappearance of Harmonious. (We shall see if that trend holds up, but I’m betting so.)
I’ve been shocked at just how bad the lines for TRON have been. It seems to get progressively worse each month–I don’t know why they’re calling groups back so quickly. (It’s also had a decent amount of downtime, I’ve noticed.)
Sorry to hear that things haven’t gone well on your trip–hope that turns around in your final days!
Very helpful post! Thanks for enduring the heat for us.
was the first MNSSHP earlier this year than previous years? That could explain the day being a bit busier than you expected, people were still at Disney world on thier summer holidays, hadn’t gone home yet. We’re flying tomorrow!
Coming out for 2 weeks from the UK, we’re following your advice and heading to MK on Friday, we did this last year and it was good advice! low crowds. As we’re coming for just over 2 weeks we’ll have plenty of time to catch the fireworks another night.
Ironically, I think one of the bigger explanations for the increased crowds at MK and, more notably, throughout Walt Disney World as a whole, is international guests. Totally anecdotal, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard this many guests from the UK in the parks before!
Tom I’d agree there’s a higher number of international visitors there right now. Just returned from parks and a stay at Yacht Club. Seemed like 90% of the hotel guests at Beach/Yacht were from the UK.
Thanks Tom, great post.
Given the local school dynamic do Sunday party days have less of a touring advantage versus weekday party days?
Sundays have been slower in general, so I’d expect the difference to be negligible. We’ll see, though!
I’m very much looking forward to more of your posts for party season. We will be there second week in September and have decided on MK on a party day of Tuesday. My question is, will Genie + be worth it? I will have 3 kids (10, 7, 5) and a slightly grumpy (hates the heat and crowds) husband.
I wouldn’t buy Genie+ on a party day, but that’s just me. (I would buy it for DHS and EPCOT, instead.)
With that said, if you’re Park Hopping elsewhere after MK, it’ll definitely make sense. It also could offer some value from around 3 pm to 6 pm.
Hey Tom! Nice article since I’m going to Disney World 2 weeks. Thanks for the heads up on the heat wave.
Can I ask for clarification on a subject?
You say: “As a general matter, August and September 2023 should be a relatively uncrowded months at Magic Kingdom (just avoid Mondays!)”
Why would you avoid Mondays?
Thanks!
This addresses day of the week recommendations for all parks: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/best-worst-days-week-visit-every-park-disney-world/
Have a great trip! 🙂
I’ll be utilizing your strategy on Aug 18 (first time in the parks since 2015!). We are not attending/have never attended the party – do you think it’s ‘worth it’ to stick around until 6 PM to soak up some of the MNSSHP costumes/vibes, or do things really not kick off until later? Thanks!
Don’t expect to see many costumes given the heat, and the party vibe doesn’t really start until 7 pm.
Still, it might be worth it…especially if you’re in the back of the park during the mix-in (and avoid the resulting crowds) and work your way forward at 6 pm. Just be aware that the park is swept pretty quickly of day guests.
Thanks Tom – I really appreciate your insight!
Thanks for these updates Tom! So grateful.
Curious looking at the advertised hours if things will change for October. I don’t see any extended evening hours for Wednesdays in October yet. Nor do they list an earlier opening time on the MNSSHP days. When do they normally make those announcements? Or do you see something changing this year where they won’t add those extra hours?
They’ve been really slow to update the calendar for this fall. I’d expect the earlier openings to happen, though.
I noticed September 1 party date now has 7:30am EH open but…the (also sold out) party date before (August 29) still shows 8:30am EH open. Maybe they’re picking and choosing busiest dates to open earlier? Or maybe just a snafu?
It’s possible there’s something I’m missing, but my bet right now would be snafu.
Hey – is there a post explaining why avoiding Mondays at MK is essential. You concluded the article with just avoid Mondays And I’m wondering the reason. Even if it’s a party night? Or are Mondays never a MNSSHP? Thanks for the clarification.
We were there on Friday, and managed to accomplish a lot in just a few hours. The crowds were thin as evidenced by short lines and me getting group 6 for TRON. If we weren’t already worn down from the week of scorching heat, we would have stayed longer.
Was there om the 11th and this all checks out. They opened an hour earlier than usual due to the MNSSHP and I swear that was a last-minute change. Anyone know when they made the opening time an hour earlier? This meant that we could early-entry at 7:30am and there was almost nobody in the park for that first hour. Crowds remained low until about noon and then the heat ratcheted things up to make even lighter crowds feel unbearable. Up until then though most rides were walk-ons to about a 20-30 minute max wait. I wonder if LL/Genie+ usage was lower that day due to shortened hours which helped lines move better.
“Anyone know when they made the opening time an hour earlier?”
I don’t remember exactly when the extension occurred, but it wasn’t that long ago. Very last minute and much later than last year.
For anyone wondering, it’s safe to say that ALL dates with MNSSHP or MVMCP will be extended (8 am to 6 pm). As we’ve discussed elsewhere–and will again soon–that extra hour in the morning is huge.
We should have taken your advice. Skipped MK on the 11th because of short hours. Then suffered when EP was overrun around 5pm. Had fun overall but hottest visit ever, probably will never do August again.
If you only had eight hours in MK on a given trip, which eight would you pick: 8-4 on a party day, or 4-midnight with Extended Evening Hours? (Feel free to set HEA aside if it simplifies.)
Normally, 4 to midnight with Extending Evening Hours.
With that said, this past week was probably the busiest I’ve ever seen ExEH at MK. I’m guessing the (daytime) weather was a big reason, so that (hopefully) won’t apply once this heat wave ends.
We had originally planned on MK Friday the 11th but with the announcement of the Halloween party we switched to Wednesday the 9th so we could see HEA. It was a trip to celebrate my brother’s 30th birthday so I gave him the choice- keep MK Friday and have low crowds or switch to Wed and see HEA. He chose HEA! The heat nearly was the end of us, but we’re happily home in Massachusetts with much more bearable temps!
Makes complete sense!
Hard to fault those with only one day to do Magic Kingdom–and without Park Hopper tickets–from choosing the days with longer hours. Having those few hours once the sun goes down is also quite nice, even if the temperature doesn’t drop all that much! Crowd levels are relatively manageable right now regardless of the day, but there was definitely a noticeable difference between last Wednesday or today and last Friday.