Physical Distancing Relaxed in Disney World’s Orange County
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings held a press conference on April 28, 2021 during which he revealed a three phased plan for returning to normalcy, eventually lifting face mask mandates and immediately relaxing physical distancing. This could result in rule relaxations at Walt Disney World, which calls Orange County, Florida home.
This comes one day after the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is the latest set of recommendations for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people. In case you missed it, we covered that in New CDC Mask Guidance Won’t Impact Walt Disney World.
While it’s interesting to see what’s changing and why, the title there really says it all–those new guidelines won’t pave the way for a loosening of Walt Disney World’s temporary health safety protocol. Conversely, this new phased plan from Orange County, the first phase of which takes effect immediately, could have significant implications for Walt Disney World…
Let’s start with a rundown of each tier in Orange County’s new executive order:
Phase 1 – Effective Immediately:
- Reduce physical distance from 6 to 3 feet in all settings.
- Fully vaccinated individuals should follow CDC guidelines for wearing facial coverings
Phase 2 – Effective when 50% of the population age 16+ has received their first dose of the vaccine:
- Facial covering mandate for outdoors lifted for all individuals.
- Physical distancing of at least 3 feet between groups is encouraged.
- Facial coverings still required for indoors, except when eating or drinking.
Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population age 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below.
- All mandates lifted
Now, for some commentary, beginning with what’s effective immediately. The second part of this incorporates the new CDC guidance by reference. Again, there are no implications for Walt Disney World there. However, that does give the green light for fully vaccinated Americans to go without masks outdoors when walking, jogging, or biking outdoors, dining with friends at outdoor restaurants, and having small outdoor gatherings with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
The new CDC guidance also allows for unvaccinated individuals to go without masks when walking, jogging or biking outdoors. Our expectation was that this would bring an end to outdoor mask mandates in many public spaces, but apparently Orange County is saving that for the second phase, as the first phase only defers to the CDC guidance with regard to fully vaccinated individuals.
The more interesting component of this is the relaxation of physical distancing from 6 feet to 3 feet. I was curious as to what basis Orange County used to justify this rule change (as there have been conflicting studies and recommendations among health experts on the issue recently), so I dug into the actual executive order issued today.
Per that, the physical distancing change is predicated upon last month’s CDC guidance for K-12 schools, which indicated physical distancing could be safely reduced from six feet to three feet with universal masking. At the time, we pointed out that guidance could pave the way for the rule to be relaxed in non-school settings, but there haven’t been many instances of that. Nevertheless, good for Orange County to use that as a basis for its rule change.
Schools are not the only setting where health experts have found physical distancing could be relaxed with universal masking. In a new study released earlier this week, the University of Central Florida (UCF) and International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA) concluded that theme parks could safely lower physical distancing requirements from six feet to three feet.
That human research study analyzed droplet volume, quantity, and size while participants coughed and spoke. Ultimately, UCF and IAAPA concluded that when wearing a face mask, the range of exhalation is under 2.5 feet (significantly lower for multi-layer masks).
When we talk rule relaxation here, most of you are understandably more interested in face masks than physical distancing. I can’t say I’ve encountered many people who are champing at the bit to stand closer to sweaty tourists in line. To the contrary, we’ve heard from many readers who enjoy the extra space, and hope physical distancing sticks around indefinitely.
However, that’s (also understandably) not Walt Disney World’s perspective. Capacity caps are the biggest impediment to profitability right now, and those are dictated by industrial engineering estimates of what’s necessary to ensure adequate physical distancing.
In a nutshell, physical distancing is what’s preventing higher attendance, and that has a ripple effect on myriad aspects of operations, from dining to entertainment. So even if you may not like the direct consequences of a physical distancing relaxation, you likely do want its indirect benefits on the guest experience.
The big immediate upside would be more Park Pass reservation availability. Many readers have reported issues scoring those, which are once again fully booked for many dates even after Walt Disney World added tons of Park Pass availability for Summer 2021.
It’ll be interesting to see what, if anything, Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando do with this new face mask and physical distancing executive order from Orange County. The county’s rules are significant as they establish the earliest possible timeframes for Walt Disney World to relax or lift its own health safety protocol. This means that physical distancing could be relaxed in the parks immediately, and attendance caps increased.
This should not be construed to mean Walt Disney World will change its rules simultaneous with Orange County–just that now they finally can do so. In the case of physical distancing, we suspect Walt Disney World will follow the lead of Orange County because it’s advantageous to do so and offers the company “cover” for the decision. (It’s more likely than not that Disney was consulted in the drafting of this executive order given their power in Central Florida; at the very least, the company knew it was coming.) Waiting around for definitive word from the CDC is a big gamble, and Disney doesn’t have the same influence to wield there.
If I had to guess, I’d say that Walt Disney World will wait until at least next week (early May 2021) before making an official announcement. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, even if Disney was involved or consulted with regard to Orange County’s phased plan, the company is still slow-moving and likely will take a few days to ‘assess and adjust.’
Second, because Disneyland’s “historic” reopening is about to occur after a year-plus closure, and that will likely garner positive media coverage and headlines. It’s doubtful that Disney would want to risk pairing that upbeat story with headlines that it’s “bringing crowds back” to Florida (or however that news might be spun–but you can bet it won’t be positive).
Where Orange County’s executive order presents more of a potential problem is with regard to face mask rules. If the latest numbers are any indication, the county is going to have a tough time ever hitting 70% on vaccinations. Thankfully, the third phase alternatively allows for all mandates to be lifted on the basis of rolling test positivity. That should be more easily achievable, especially if nationwide numbers plummet in May, as some experts expect. The 5% positivity rate is much more attainable–Orange County, California is already at 1.4%.
Again, companies like Disney will not defy Orange County’s rules. Opinions on whether they should or not are irrelevant, because they simply won’t. It’s a nonstarter. Disney learned several years ago in Orange County (California edition, this time) the pitfalls of having an adversarial relationship with local governments.
As for how Walt Disney World would relax physical distancing in queues and elsewhere, my guess is that we see the “please wait here” markers disappear almost entirely. Three feet is more or less natural human spacing; removing those markers and having sandwich boards and occasional overhead announcements reminding people to “keep a safe distance” from other parties would be sufficient. Installing even more markers seems unlikely and excessive to me.
If the markers are removed entirely, you can expect that process to take several days, if not weeks, to implement. It would make sense to start with attractions that are notorious for lengthy overflow queues that spill out into other parts of the parks. Moreover, there may be some locations where Disney chooses to retain them. Those are all simply my guesses, though. Who knows, Walt Disney World may wait for definitive word from the CDC before changing anything. I just don’t see that happening when they have every business incentive to relax physical distancing, which guests are doing themselves regardless, especially if mask rules remain in place. Perhaps not the news you wanted to hear, but it would be another significant milestone in the gradual return to normalcy.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Any expectations or predictions on if or when Walt Disney World will relax its physical distancing standard to 3 feet? Think any Central Florida theme parks will follow suit, or do you expect they’ll wait for CDC guidance or something else? Please keep the comments civil. This is not the place for arguing about efficacy, politics, and so forth—all such comments will be deleted, irrespective of perspective. You are not going to change anyone’s mind via the comments section on this blog, nor are you going to change Disney’s rules or public policy. If you wish to contest this, rather than yelling into the internet abyss, have your voice heard in a meaningful way by contacting Disney or your local elected officials.
Even with the six foot distancing I still sometimes have people breathing down my neck in queues – ( death stare sometimes works and occasionally in long lines I’ve told them to go ahead of me) but without social distancing I’ll be keeping my mask on ( simple mask not a problem for me as I have to wear my N95 with level 1 mask and face shield when working)
I agree Orange County’s clear benchmarks are a good thing. However, choosing positivity as the benchmark for “All mandates lifted” sets them up for accusations of “gamification” of the metrics. How does California (along with various northeast states) get their positivity to 1.8%? By mandating tons of asymptomatic people (mostly students) get tested. It’s like forcing people to look for penguins in the desert, you aren’t likely to find many.
Disney could just have a voluntary, free test of anyone who walked through the gates and passed the temperature screening and run up the “denominator” in the positivity calculation with very likely negative tests. 2 weeks later, the rolling 14 day “positivity” will easily fall to the false positive rate of the test and bam: no more mandates.
For those curious, Orange County is currently at about 42% of 16+ vaccinated. The dept. of health is estimating 50% might be reached in 3 weeks.
I’m hoping this leads to an immediate increase in dining capacity. Dining reservations are almost harder than pass park reservations.
Count your blessings…Washington State and Oregon are reversing course and locking back down again! Even with 30%+ vaccinated! Madness!!!
It’s been my observation that what most people think is 6 feet is really more like 4 feet. I think whenever Disney does go to 3 feet, it will kind of be a formality.
I’ve been wondering about all the “please wait here” markers, and how difficult those will be to remove when the time comes. They might find they need to refinish a lot of flooring.
Finally! The application of science NOT influenced by politics! It’s about time. Fun fact: WDW is it’s own municipality with a mayor and everything. I’m sure they are being good neighbors with Orange County, but the reality is, they aren’t beholden to follow their edicts.
Wow this is great news and I applaud Orange County for setting an easily understood map forward that encourages people to get vaccinated. Phase 2 is going to happen really soon, right? What % of 16+ are currently vaccinated in OC? That would allow Disney to ease outdoor mask mandates whenever they please.
Darren,nobody says you CAN’T continue to wear a mask when this is over. Just tell them you’re afraid of catching Recalcitrant Plebney and smile while you walk away and they look it up!
I am the type of person who doesn’t like when people get too close to me in queues, but only because I think they won’t like what they accidentally got close to once they see my face (the mask requirement, like Maeby’s date with Steve Holt, has been a fun, sexy time for me). One thing is for certain: I have enjoyed not catching a cold for over a year, and I would like the good times to keep rolling in that respect. I like to imagine the common cold floating around thinking “ok where the heck IS everyone?” Take that, cold, no one likes you.
I tend to agree with your malleable prediction that all restrictions will be gone by October. The county’s approach yesterday is still too slow for me, but it confirms the trend toward normalcy at WDW. I too appreciate the imminent relaxation of distancing rules. We were designed to be social beings and this world needs more friendliness now more than ever. I am flying to Orlando tomorrow with my 8 year old daughter tomorrow (from Arizona). We wanted to wait to visit WDW until the mask mandate ended, but I miss WDW too much to wait any longer. So Disney, here we come! And when they finally end the mask mandate, I’ll immediately make plans to bring my wife and all 5 of our kids.
As always, thank you for the recap including your honest and open take on everything! I’m pretty sure the CDC has been saying for almost a year now that you are safe outside, they just didn’t make a big production around it. To come out now after everything science has told us with this message is ultimately a step back because now they have added the “if vaccinated” verbiage. I agree with the others who have said that their announcement is not helping incentivize those that have vaccine hesitancy and they are hurting their cause. I’ve already been vaccinated and after the announcement, I felt discouraged and let down rather than excited (as I had hoped). To tell us the vaccine is super effective but still enforce the mask rule seems like a very negative and problematic mixed message. I hope Disney follows the OC recommendations and doesn’t live and breathe by these ridiculous CDC recommendations.
We booked a September trip a couple weeks ago, and all I’m realistically hoping for is not having to wear masks when we’re outdoors. If we have to put them on when going indoors or boarding transportation or whatever, no worries. That’s already the family routine when walking into stores and the like; sunglasses come off and masks go on, and my kid knows that he can take his mask off once we’re back outside.
It seems logistically feasible that part of the security screening process could be showing that you brought a mask with you, but then only being required to actually put it on when going inside. Thoughts, Tom?
This is overall good news. But you stated 70% is a hard number to reach. While I don’t know internal politics of Orange County there a big caveat there from Orange County. The current numbers being reported are done where at 35% of the whole population where Orange County is saying 16 and over. They are basically making 15 and under incidentals. If we would track this number my county which currently fits at around 42% would jump to almost 56% over night. Sure it’s still 14% away from 70% but with them limiting that number it’s much easier to attain.
We’ve been in WDW all this week. Crowded ,especially on the weekend. Heat and masks are not a fun combination. Lots better last November and this January! Not planning to return until the mask stupidity stops or the temperature drops.
Disney being Disney I don’t expect them to lead the pack in relaxing COVID restrictions. I don’t see why, if you can prove full vaccination plus 14 days you need to wear a mask outside but God help Disney if they might give anyone who’s still.worried about COVID a case of the vapors!
As always, thanks again for your insightful takes on what is going on at Disney! With regard to the relaxation of distancing guidelines, do you see the return of fast pass on the horizon? Or ADR’s going back to 180 days? We have a trip planned for the week after Thanksgiving, and i’d love to get some dining reservations on the books soon..
I wouldn’t expect either to occur simultaneous with physical distancing changes, but that’s just a guess.
Are rides being operated at full capacity currently?
We’re going in a month with two 3 year olds (who are now tall enough to ride most of the headliners) and my concern would be if park capacity increases, are ride waits going to balloon as well? Or will they run more ride vehicles and generally increase staffing so that waits are approximately the same as they’ve been?
With masks still required outdoors, and no fastpass, I’m worried about meltdowns (for the 3 year olds, as well as us parents, lol)
“Are rides being operated at full capacity currently?”
No. It varies pretty dramatically by attraction, but almost nothing is operating at 100% efficiency–most rides aren’t even close to it.
With that said, I suspect this physical distancing change will allow WDW to increase attendance by a great amount than they could conceivably increase attraction efficiency. I could be wrong on that, but I’d expect wait times to tick up–unless this also results in more being brought back, reopening, etc.
You know I may be the exception to the rule, and contrary to my expectations. I hate the anti-social distancing. I miss being able to converse easily with others in line. I really thought I wouldn’t but here we are. apparently, “I’m a people person dang it!” I won’t get into how much I hate the masks or why I think they are BAD for our health because that opens cans better left for the twitter-verse.
Anyway its a start. If it’s help I’d come down there and start injecting people. How about we load a bunch of nurses in the back armed with dart guns and they do drive-by innoculations!
I will formally retract the line about no one champing at the bit to be closer to sweaty tourists! 😉
In all seriousness, totally get what you mean. The last year has given me a newfound appreciation on collective experiences. (I’ll stop short of saying “crowds” since I still don’t think I like those–but a full movie theater or Main Street as a sea of people for fireworks? Definitely!)
I just wonder if Disney will be able to find enough people to reopen at the rate they want too when they start to reopen to normal levels! I am in North GA and the manufacturing plants and fast food restaurants are offering sign on bonuses from 100 dollars at a captain d’s to 1000 dollars paid after the first 90 days worked at multiple factories. I can’t get people to come to work at my business as they are staying on unemployment or have a lot of money in the bank from stimulus and and don’t want to work more than few days a week if at all.
Until the mass unemployment being given out by the government is reduced to normal levels I see this being a issue not just at Disney but across the country.
That’s definitely an issue here, too.
One of the Disney Springs restaurant operators sent out an email blast to its regular mailing list offering a $250 hiring bonus. I’ve seen articles about how it’s an especially pronounced problem in Central Florida. Given how much of the labor force was younger and/or transplants, that absolutely would make sense to me. We saw a LOT of U-Hauls moving people out last spring after the parks closed.
Now this is actually dangling a carrot with regards to potentially getting vaccine hesitant people to get vaccinated. Orange County’s incentive makes sense where the CDC’s alleged carrot dangling (if you can call it that) completely missed the mark. You want to incentivize people that are vaccine hesitant to get the vaccine – telling them they can jog without a mask is not going to do it. The list of activities the CDC listed are probably all activities that those that are vaccine hesitant are already engaging in. This is not a knock on those individuals, just a reality. Those that are vaccine hesitant are largely among those that have long been over volunteering to where a mask while they jog in the park and I don’t blame them.
Glad Orange County didn’t subject themselves to the mantra of “there is no precise number” and simply made a decision that could have an actual impact on vaccine hesitancy, albeit, for a much smaller group of people. Now here’s hoping it works so I can bring my 2 and 4 year old in September without a mask.
Totally agree.
I’d applaud Orange County’s approach here. I could quibble over small aspects, but the bottom line is that it has clear benchmarks, is easily understandable, and provides logical incentives and transparency. Way better than whatever the CDC is trying to accomplish.