Physical Distancing Relaxed in Disney World’s Orange County
Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings held a press conference on April 28, 2021 during which he revealed a three phased plan for returning to normalcy, eventually lifting face mask mandates and immediately relaxing physical distancing. This could result in rule relaxations at Walt Disney World, which calls Orange County, Florida home.
This comes one day after the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is the latest set of recommendations for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people. In case you missed it, we covered that in New CDC Mask Guidance Won’t Impact Walt Disney World.
While it’s interesting to see what’s changing and why, the title there really says it all–those new guidelines won’t pave the way for a loosening of Walt Disney World’s temporary health safety protocol. Conversely, this new phased plan from Orange County, the first phase of which takes effect immediately, could have significant implications for Walt Disney World…
Let’s start with a rundown of each tier in Orange County’s new executive order:
Phase 1 – Effective Immediately:
- Reduce physical distance from 6 to 3 feet in all settings.
- Fully vaccinated individuals should follow CDC guidelines for wearing facial coverings
Phase 2 – Effective when 50% of the population age 16+ has received their first dose of the vaccine:
- Facial covering mandate for outdoors lifted for all individuals.
- Physical distancing of at least 3 feet between groups is encouraged.
- Facial coverings still required for indoors, except when eating or drinking.
Phase 3 – Effective when 70% of the population age 16 or older has received their first dose of the vaccine and/or Orange County’s 14-day rolling positivity rate is 5% or below.
- All mandates lifted
Now, for some commentary, beginning with what’s effective immediately. The second part of this incorporates the new CDC guidance by reference. Again, there are no implications for Walt Disney World there. However, that does give the green light for fully vaccinated Americans to go without masks outdoors when walking, jogging, or biking outdoors, dining with friends at outdoor restaurants, and having small outdoor gatherings with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
The new CDC guidance also allows for unvaccinated individuals to go without masks when walking, jogging or biking outdoors. Our expectation was that this would bring an end to outdoor mask mandates in many public spaces, but apparently Orange County is saving that for the second phase, as the first phase only defers to the CDC guidance with regard to fully vaccinated individuals.
The more interesting component of this is the relaxation of physical distancing from 6 feet to 3 feet. I was curious as to what basis Orange County used to justify this rule change (as there have been conflicting studies and recommendations among health experts on the issue recently), so I dug into the actual executive order issued today.
Per that, the physical distancing change is predicated upon last month’s CDC guidance for K-12 schools, which indicated physical distancing could be safely reduced from six feet to three feet with universal masking. At the time, we pointed out that guidance could pave the way for the rule to be relaxed in non-school settings, but there haven’t been many instances of that. Nevertheless, good for Orange County to use that as a basis for its rule change.
Schools are not the only setting where health experts have found physical distancing could be relaxed with universal masking. In a new study released earlier this week, the University of Central Florida (UCF) and International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA) concluded that theme parks could safely lower physical distancing requirements from six feet to three feet.
That human research study analyzed droplet volume, quantity, and size while participants coughed and spoke. Ultimately, UCF and IAAPA concluded that when wearing a face mask, the range of exhalation is under 2.5 feet (significantly lower for multi-layer masks).
When we talk rule relaxation here, most of you are understandably more interested in face masks than physical distancing. I can’t say I’ve encountered many people who are champing at the bit to stand closer to sweaty tourists in line. To the contrary, we’ve heard from many readers who enjoy the extra space, and hope physical distancing sticks around indefinitely.
However, that’s (also understandably) not Walt Disney World’s perspective. Capacity caps are the biggest impediment to profitability right now, and those are dictated by industrial engineering estimates of what’s necessary to ensure adequate physical distancing.
In a nutshell, physical distancing is what’s preventing higher attendance, and that has a ripple effect on myriad aspects of operations, from dining to entertainment. So even if you may not like the direct consequences of a physical distancing relaxation, you likely do want its indirect benefits on the guest experience.
The big immediate upside would be more Park Pass reservation availability. Many readers have reported issues scoring those, which are once again fully booked for many dates even after Walt Disney World added tons of Park Pass availability for Summer 2021.
It’ll be interesting to see what, if anything, Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando do with this new face mask and physical distancing executive order from Orange County. The county’s rules are significant as they establish the earliest possible timeframes for Walt Disney World to relax or lift its own health safety protocol. This means that physical distancing could be relaxed in the parks immediately, and attendance caps increased.
This should not be construed to mean Walt Disney World will change its rules simultaneous with Orange County–just that now they finally can do so. In the case of physical distancing, we suspect Walt Disney World will follow the lead of Orange County because it’s advantageous to do so and offers the company “cover” for the decision. (It’s more likely than not that Disney was consulted in the drafting of this executive order given their power in Central Florida; at the very least, the company knew it was coming.) Waiting around for definitive word from the CDC is a big gamble, and Disney doesn’t have the same influence to wield there.
If I had to guess, I’d say that Walt Disney World will wait until at least next week (early May 2021) before making an official announcement. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, even if Disney was involved or consulted with regard to Orange County’s phased plan, the company is still slow-moving and likely will take a few days to ‘assess and adjust.’
Second, because Disneyland’s “historic” reopening is about to occur after a year-plus closure, and that will likely garner positive media coverage and headlines. It’s doubtful that Disney would want to risk pairing that upbeat story with headlines that it’s “bringing crowds back” to Florida (or however that news might be spun–but you can bet it won’t be positive).
Where Orange County’s executive order presents more of a potential problem is with regard to face mask rules. If the latest numbers are any indication, the county is going to have a tough time ever hitting 70% on vaccinations. Thankfully, the third phase alternatively allows for all mandates to be lifted on the basis of rolling test positivity. That should be more easily achievable, especially if nationwide numbers plummet in May, as some experts expect. The 5% positivity rate is much more attainable–Orange County, California is already at 1.4%.
Again, companies like Disney will not defy Orange County’s rules. Opinions on whether they should or not are irrelevant, because they simply won’t. It’s a nonstarter. Disney learned several years ago in Orange County (California edition, this time) the pitfalls of having an adversarial relationship with local governments.
As for how Walt Disney World would relax physical distancing in queues and elsewhere, my guess is that we see the “please wait here” markers disappear almost entirely. Three feet is more or less natural human spacing; removing those markers and having sandwich boards and occasional overhead announcements reminding people to “keep a safe distance” from other parties would be sufficient. Installing even more markers seems unlikely and excessive to me.
If the markers are removed entirely, you can expect that process to take several days, if not weeks, to implement. It would make sense to start with attractions that are notorious for lengthy overflow queues that spill out into other parts of the parks. Moreover, there may be some locations where Disney chooses to retain them. Those are all simply my guesses, though. Who knows, Walt Disney World may wait for definitive word from the CDC before changing anything. I just don’t see that happening when they have every business incentive to relax physical distancing, which guests are doing themselves regardless, especially if mask rules remain in place. Perhaps not the news you wanted to hear, but it would be another significant milestone in the gradual return to normalcy.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Any expectations or predictions on if or when Walt Disney World will relax its physical distancing standard to 3 feet? Think any Central Florida theme parks will follow suit, or do you expect they’ll wait for CDC guidance or something else? Please keep the comments civil. This is not the place for arguing about efficacy, politics, and so forth—all such comments will be deleted, irrespective of perspective. You are not going to change anyone’s mind via the comments section on this blog, nor are you going to change Disney’s rules or public policy. If you wish to contest this, rather than yelling into the internet abyss, have your voice heard in a meaningful way by contacting Disney or your local elected officials.
Considering the CDC has a lot of ridiculous rules – and again the vaccinated vs unvaccinated rules – I don’t know if they would ever truly lift any of these re: distancing and masking but it’s good the county trusts the vaccines and science! (Don’t get me started on how masks are pointless and distancing and quarantining the healthy were started by a 14 year old’s science project.) Re: testing they use a very high PCR Ct of 40 where even Dr Fauci has spoken of anything above 30 is dead virus and of no use diagnostically – so that’s a big problem as well here with positivity rates and so on. I think all of this is ensuring normality is never achieved frankly.
I hope by August when we are there it is a lot more relaxed. I’m a bit terrified of wearing masks outdoors at Disney in that heat but I assume by then at least they will not be outdoor use.
I can certainly see staffing being an issue, with all the stimulus checks (list count of how many rounds of them), and very liberal unemployment extensions.
Where I live, a restaurant recently closed, reason given that “Nobody wants to work….they’d rather get the stimulus checks and unemployment.”
It would be awesome if Disney first drops the mask requirement at the hotels outdoors, wherever there isn’t a crowd gathering. It makes no sense to walk to or from the room, outside, with few or no one around, being fully vaccinated, and still wear a mask. Where there is a crowd, say indoors or at bus stops, then I can see requiring masks.
Tom, Thanks for the helpful blog, passion, and resource for my “detailed” (compulsive) planning. And to all of you fellow Disney lovers for your comments and responses.
I can deal with masks, distancing, whatever it takes to bring my five-year-old to Disney World and allow her to experience it. And to experience it through her eyes.
I am proficient at the fast pass system going back to the Disneyland paper tickets days. That had always allowed my group to enjoy less wait times in lines. However, now that that is not an option, what is going to be a more difficult sell to my daughter and her impatient mother, are long lines. I don’t mind lines. They’re a great time to be with family. My wife and daughter, not so much. I don’t want their experience to be tarnished or there to be excessive complaining.
I’m going to DW in late June as always which has never been a problem for me the way I plan. So for the next two months I’ll be thinking about this.
Question — what are the variables that would give me hope that the lines will be shorter? The primary one I could see would be increasing the capacity of the rides. I don’t know how many people they’re putting into the boat of pirates, but if they put double the people the line would move a lot faster.
Do you know any more about what is actually going to happen with ride capacity? How much will the 6 feet to the 3 feet affect how many people they put on the different rides? Will they increase it? How much will that help? Any info?
With opening of shows end more restaurants and how that will affect lines? Will they re-introduce fast pass? Is there anything else to give me hope that the lines are not going to be as bad as I fear.
Thank you to everyone!
We are headed there June 1st. Do you expect there to be….50%, 75%?
Can you look in your crystal ball? Since fast passes are not back and limits are
reduced how do you think this will effect lines? Should we still follow your
day iteneraries posted for COVID times, or should we go back to the old iteneraries?
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR POSTS. THEY ARE SO HELPFUL AND I AM GRATEFUL FOR THE ADVICE! First time trip and I somehow go put in charge of scheduleing everything for 14 of us! CHEERS! -Leslie from Texas
Heather
It’s a balmy 91 today. Epcot is mobbed. 35 percent? Yeah. Right! I guess November and January spoiled me with regard to lack of crowds. And it seems that the more that rules are generally relaxed in the “real world” the worse Disney is getting about mask enforcement. Could just be me but I actually reported one dude about the size of a pro football pulling guard who seemed to take too much delight in loudly chastising parents with kids in strollers.
We were in the parks the Easter week of spring break. I would really hate to see Disney make smaller markers. People always are going to push the envelope. Mask compliance was decent though offenders truly ignored and thumbed their noses at staff reminding them to cover their noses and faces. I have noticed less and less managers and staff reminding guests who aren’t compliant. (We spent 4 weeks in 2020 in the parks and it was so much better with all the gentle reminders.) I watched one cast member tell a guest they couldn’t eat or drink in a line and they had to keep their mask on. She also kindly told her she could slide a straw under her mask to drink through. The guest put it on and the second the cast member moved on she took her mask completely back off. Pure defiance. Those are the people that are making the problems worse. I will say the compliance with the 6 feet social distancing markers was an absolute utter fail. Virtually no one paid any attention at all. I constantly had people creep up so close behind me that if I was to turn around we would be face to face. At best you could put 1 person between your group and the group behind you. We could control what was in front of us but not behind us. I truly wanted one of those social meme 6 foot pool noodle hats or a tape measure to hold behind me. They are not getting on any quicker or being shut out of ride by being up in my face so I just don’t get it. If Disney tries to do 3 foot markers they would be just wasting money and time. I was fully vaccinated but my family was not yet so I became the barrier keeping the people behind us away from my husband and children. And the thing that everyone seems to forget is that even vaccinated you can still get Covid. I just had a co-workers friend who was fully vaccinated that still got Covid and died. We still need to wait, wear and wash (wait 6 feet apart, wear a cdc approved 2 layer facemask fully covering your nose and mouth and wash your hands fully for at least 20 seconds). We all know going that these rules are in place I want to be able to go and know that I am doing everything I can to protect my family, those around me and the cast members who desperately need to have these preventative measures to work so they can stay on the job. So many are asymptomatic when they get sick and not following these guidelines means they could be exposing 1000’s at Disney if they are laughing, screaming, coughing and sneezing standing in line next to others. So personally I say they should keep the rules in place they have now. People are all ready not keeping a full 6 foot marker between their party and the party in front of them. I say Disney should just keep doing Disney.
I actually didn’t think they would make an announcement at all…just go ahead and proceed with Phase 1 quietly.
We head there in 3 weeks and we will make the best of all their protocols…. after all we will be in Disney!!
More exciting news. Thanks for reporting this as many of us live way outside the red state and would never know the inside skinny on Orange County FL without you.
You can be sure Universal will jump on this and Disney will follow shortly after.
We both agreed awhile back that the next step would be 6 feet to 3 feet. The fact is it has a lot of positive implications.
More Park availability yes but also faster moving lines as they should be able to place more folks on rides. More restaurant availability. This makes shows more feasible. You really couldn’t do the Indiana Jones fight scenes 6 feet apart. More people coming in but also more things for them to do. And not to be overlooked, more CM’s returning to work and in a less volatile work place.
Phase two is the most intriguing aspect because it can be reached even before the summer and if all continues going well that could mean no masks in the parks at some point during July/August.
However Tom, when you write “Effective when 50% of the population age 16+ has received their first dose of the vaccine:” are they referring to 50% of Florida or the country? I assume they mean FL. Even still both should be achievable before summer.
My prediction, 50th Anniversary and no masks outdoors.
What are the odds capacity is increased in the next two weeks? I worry as others have said if they don’t increase dining and entertainment options the lines will be out of control. That said like others have commented that they will have to have enough cast members to increase the availability of dining and entertainment, so increasing capacity could take longer. It’ll be my first time back to WDW since 2012 and I’m really hoping the lines aren’t terrible!
I would much rather see the mask mandate drop and keep the 6 feet distance.
Mitch,
Apparently you haven’t read the MIT distancing study. Essentially indoors 6 feet or 60 feet, it doesn’t matter.
Just wondering if this will open up restaurants at Disney to have more reservation availability??? ADR still hard to get right now ..
Coco,
Easy change? ROFLMAO! You’re talking Disney! Back in the day, maybe. Now? No way!
I find it interesting that airports, especially MCO, do absolutely nothing to enforce or even plan for physical distancing. In fact, it’s pretty much the opposite.
The last time I priced out a potential January 2022 trip the prices seemed crazy high. Is this due to restricted numbers and thing not be available still? The price of the trip I was pricing out (just hotel and park passes) looked like what I would normally pay for a complete trip (hotel, park, dining and airfare). Do you expect prices to adjust down some once they open more and add dining back? I can’t imagine going now with these prices
So, for the sake of clarity – I am fully and proudly vaccinated. When my family (also fully vaccinated) and I head down on May 15, we still have to wear our masks outdoors in Disney, correct? Even though the CDC rules indicate that we do not have to wear a mask outdoors? I truly don’t mind, but just want to be sure I’ve got it correct and we act accordingly.
I’m just curious if you are compensated each time you type CDC? In all seriousness if they increase capacity with no FPP and shows, it will be a train wreck all summer with wait times and people waiting on mobile orders.
We are scheduled to go back in June and sure hope they stop the pool admission/spacing process with OC’s guidance, all outside, 3 feet it should be an easy change.
I’m a bit skeptical, not only that Orange County will never get to 70% inoculation, but also that it will ever get below the 5% testing positivity rate. If folks are vaccinated or concerns of having COVID wane, people won’t get tested. Especially considering the demographics of Orange county. For instance, the greatest number of positive cases have been for those between 25-34 with 28.4k cases (23% of total cases), and 76,800 cases for those between 15-44 (63% of total cases). Since folks in the age brackets aren’t as likely to get a vaccine, nor get tested, I’m not sure when we’d hit that wicket.
In Orange county, the greatest number of daily positive cases in 2021 was 703 in February. Given that the county has nearly 1.4 million residents, that’s a positivity rate of 0.05% of the population. Even taking the total number of cases (122,444) since COVID began over a year ago in Orange county, that’s 8.7% of the population that has been infected. I just don’t see testing being as big of a “thing” anymore. But maybe I’m wrong. Just a data scientist conjuring up theories 🙂
So I’m curious, if I feel like walking around in Orange County without a mask outdoors who is confirming I have been vaccinated during phase 1? No one is my guess, which makes trying to segregate pointless. Just remove the mask mandate outdoors for everyone. It’s pointless anyhow. I guess from other’s posts that should happen in the next few weeks anyhow once phase 2 hits.