Potential Plans for Disney World Phased Reopening
Leaders from Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, SeaWorld, and other Orlando area theme parks met today as part of a subcommittee within the Reopen Florida Task Force to determine how and when to reopen parks and other attractions in the Sunshine State. In this post, we’ll share some ideas discussed, what this could mean for Walt Disney World, and potential impediments to these plans.
The subcommittee that met has been dubbed the “Industry Working Group on Tourism, Construction, Real Estate, Recreation, Retail and Transportation,” and includes executive leadership from a wide range of businesses from theme parks to airlines to retirement communities (yes, really). Of relevance for this blog are two group members: Walt Disney World President Josh D’Amaro and Universal Orlando CEO John Sprouls.
This meeting comes a few days after Florida beaches began to reopen and 24 hours after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis claimed that Walt Disney World is “so far ahead of the curve” on reopening and will be “leading the way” in Florida’s plans to begin opening in the coming weeks under the federal government’s Guidelines for Opening Up America Again, a three-phased approach based on the advice of public health experts…
During the tourism portion of the Reopen Florida Task Force meeting, Walt Disney World President Josh D’Amaro did not speak. However, Universal Orlando CEO John Sprouls did, and he outlined some of plans to reopen Universal Studios Florida and Islands of Adventure.
This is significant because, as with security, the health protocol plans here are certain to be collaborative in nature. While some diehard fans of both Disney and Universal project their own aspersions and view the companies in an oddly adversarial light, that doesn’t reflect reality.
While competitors, it’s also true that Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando both exist in the same community, and to some degree, indirectly benefit from one another. In the past, we’ve seen identical changes and policies rolled out simultaneously at the two resort complexes, including 5 years ago when both (plus SeaWorld) installed enhanced security infrastructure overnight.
There have been some diverging approaches between the two on the security screening measures (most notably, Universal uses baggage scanners–something we’d love to see Walt Disney World adopt), but there are a lot of practices that are consistent between the two. This is not coincidence. It’s a foregone that Universal and Disney will likewise adopt nearly identical health procedures and protocol for reopening.
Sprouls outlined a number of possibilities, including increased sanitation throughout the parks, increased use of virtual queue systems, encouraging guests to wear face masks, added social-distancing measures, disinfecting attractions throughout the day, increased use of mobile ordering and contactless payment transactions, staggered seating for shows, screening employees daily, and more.
Much of what was mentioned mirrors the possibilities outlined in a Universal Orlando survey sent out over the weekend. Notably, that survey also mentioned suspending parades and nighttime shows, limiting attendance to half of park capacity, and removing 3D glasses from attractions. (Anything that accelerates the abandonment of 3D is welcome in our book!)
He additionally stated that multiple teams are working on a number of different scenarios for reopening protocol. Moreover, that the theme parks will be guided by state and local officials, as well as health officials with the overarching goal to be keeping employees and guests safe.
This all mirrors recent comments from Disney Executive Chairman Bob Iger–along with health safety measures that have been floated for Walt Disney World and Disneyland, and what’s currently being rolled out ahead of Shanghai Disneyland’s imminent reopening. (All as previously discussed in our What Operational & Health Safety Changes Will Walt Disney World Make to Reopen? post.)
For both Universal and Disney, there’s the complicating factor of their theme park operations on the West Coast. While Florida is overzealous about reopening its businesses, California Governor Gavin Newsom is striking a much more tentative tone. The two governors are essentially at opposite ends of the spectrum on this, which is noteworthy here.
California’s more cautious approach to resuming normalcy could end up shaping big business behavior nationwide, as has happened with auto emissions and other things. It’ll be interesting to see what California’s economic task force–which counts Disney’s Bob Iger as a member–determines is the best course of action for that state in the coming weeks.
There’s also the potential matter of trepidation on Disney’s part. The state of Florida is offering some degree of cover with this task force and its official recommendations, which could encourage Walt Disney World to resume operations sooner. However, there’s still the reality that “safety” is part of the Disney brand, and reopening prematurely would damage that.
On balance, it’s tough to predict how this will play out and Disney’s position here is unenviable. It’s somewhat difficult to envision Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando reopening while Disneyland and Universal Studios Hollywood remain closed. Suffice to say, just because DeSantis wants to reopen the state ASAP doesn’t mean that’s the route Disney and Universal will take.
Florida’s eagerness here comes as the local economy has already been decimated by the shutdown. The bulk of Central Florida’s businesses and employees are dependent upon tourism, and the impacts have already been catastrophic. This is not to say that Florida’s plans (whatever they might end up being) are right–just that the state is in a tough spot.
Visit Florida CEO Dana Young stated that hotels in the state have seen a $1.6 billion drop in revenue over the past six weeks, per Spectrum News 13. In order to get tourism numbers back up, people will need to feel that it’s safe to travel. Visit Florida is thus working on a multi-phase campaign, with the first part focused on Florida residents, encouraging them to visit state attractions.
Part of Visit Florida’s push will involve encouraging Floridians to support local businesses by taking an in-state vacation. This should mesh with the Reopen Florida Task Force’s plans for a gradual and careful reopening that will entail first reopening to Florida residents, then national visitors, followed by international guests.
While this phased approach to reopening the Walt Disney World theme parks has not yet been cemented (far from it), it certainly makes sense. Moreover, it would offer more latitude in a slower rollout of rides, shows, and other offerings (even potentially a phased opening of the parks themselves).
Once in a lifetime or other infrequent Walt Disney World guests are less forgiving (we’re trying to put that diplomatically), but the stakes are lower with Floridians. There’s less of a cost for locals in visiting Walt Disney World. Many are Annual Passholders and those who aren’t don’t have to book airfare, stay in a hotel, etc–many will be happy just to get out of the house and have a public space to walk around.
By contrast, tourists are spending thousands of dollars for their vacations, and may be less receptive to parades, fireworks, attractions, etc., not happening. We’ve already heard from a ton of readers who have expressed similar sentiment. We can’t blame them given the cost of a Walt Disney World vacation, but we all also have to accept the reality that things are going to be a bit different (mild understatement) for a while.
Reopening to locals first with all of the modified health safety procedures would allow Walt Disney World something of a “soft opening” period for the resort complex as a whole. During that time, Disney could test and adjust its new protocol, see what works and doesn’t, and slowly ramp up operations.
When and how long such a “soft opening” would last before welcoming out of state tourists to Walt Disney World is anyone’s guess at this point. However, we likely won’t have to speculate for too long, as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis wants a plan submitted to him by the end of this week. We’ll keep you posted as to how the reopening plan shapes up at that point (for a heads up when that happens, subscribe to our free email newsletter).
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think of Walt Disney World and Universal Orlando Resort reopening to Floridians before out of state or international tourists? Which of the health security screenings and protocol do you think will come to fruition when the parks reopen? Are you anticipating modified operations—including the elimination of entertainment and reduced ride capacity? Do you expect a phased opening of the parks & resorts? Will you immediately book a trip, or wait until everything is back up and running, and things have returned to normal? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Good idea to book ahead so people know before leaving home. As a senior I won’t be going any time soon. Not worth the risk.
They should make people book their days in the park to control crowds so people don’t have to rush at opening and have fast passes to control lines.
Since I would be traveling from GA i would like to feel that I would be able to get into the park and not waste my time and money traveling down to arrive at an already capacity park.
They essentially already do between FP and ADRs. I highly anticipate there will be no standby lines when they reopen for a while and the only rides that will be ensured are your FP reservations. That is the only way they could possibly keep social distancing guidelines on rides. I don’t think we’ll be keeping our June reservation even with FP and ADRs scheduled. Face masks, temperatures taken, only 3 ensured rides total for a day which may take an hour to ride even with a FP because of distancing and sanitizing. No parades, no fire works, limited dining, limited shopping, no pools, trying to keep people separated when people won’t want to obey new regulations, and the virus as your parting gift. I truly don’t see how that’s the version of Disney they’re going to sell to people. It just doesn’t sound magical or worth $3500 for me and my hubby… we’re more than happy to wait if we need to so we can have a more magical trip. I’m sure there will be a number of people more than happy to pay anything and do anything to just step on Disney property though. I’ll be very interested to read the post virus visit reviews as they come rolling in… I’m guessing there will be a lot of recommendations to wait. Time will tell…
If they feel they need all these restrictions then they should not open. I am not taking my family, spending crazy money and risking a deadly virus. Thanks anyway. We will wait until everything is open and we can go without wearing masks
I feel the same way. We have a family of six to check in on June 26th. Beach Club Villas. All that money if there’s restrictions and mostly risk it’s not worth it. Very sad, anyone else have end on June reservations?
I think locals and pass holders first but not sure if I would enjoy the park with it not being completely up and running so if given the option i would probably wait.
I like the idea of locals only first just to go and not be with a large crowd for a change would be a welcoming change for our annual weekend visits to the park.
Yes, start slow. Passholders is a great way to help monitor who comes and give Disney a chance to work up to a regular schedule. No not everyone will ever be happy, but this is serious and that’s the way it will need to be handled. There should be no liability if something happens at the park being it’s up to the park to go by the rules set and people to do their part too. If you are afraid, Don’t go. But, this is not easy for anyone.
I think Disney should open to local seasonal pass holders first, with a age restriction, sorry not being disrespectful, limited seating on rides. Have thermal temperature monitoring for everyone comes into the park at the point of entry and volunteer through out the park through the day. Hand sanitizer stationary through out the park. For a short time then allow out of towners with a reservation. For a week or so then gradually allow about 75% , till the health department gives the all clear.
If your getting a fastpass then maybe tweak the bands to include a thermometer. Even though in Florida heat that may be a difficult endeavor.
This is great. No disrespect to those with children, but they are germy and won’t wear a mask (pediatric RN here)! Age restriction, temp checks, FL residents then guests saying on property. I think that sounds like great first steps!
I am a military retiree who bought tickets that have until Dec to use. I planned on end of May, but it looks like not possible. I hope these could be extended as well. I budgeted, so bought this earlier in the year.
It’s not a case of what’s fair and what isn’t. It’s more a case of doing what will keep people safe and Disney free of lawsuits. Just as happened after 9/11, things are not going to be exactly the same. Change is necessary and, according to what I’m reading here, be prepared for guest outrage.
Whatever steps Disney takes to keep their guests safe and themselves lawsuit-free, they will take, whether guests like it or not. With all the complaints about paying for resort parking, it didn’t stop people from booking Disney resorts. When admission and resort prices were increased, you all still went. Obviously, some people will choose to stay home, but it sounds like quite a few are ready to return, even with no parades, fireworks or character meets. The draw to Disney is just too strong for many diehard fans.
Any amusement park like Disney World or universal should NOT?reopen until there is a vaccine. How are the parks going to screen the guest? I can’t imagine all gust being subjected to a mandatory temperature check. How do the parks keep their employees safe? These are questions that must be answered before there are any parks opened.
A vaccine, really?
In reality, central Florida’s tourist attractions ( and the stores, hotels, and restaurants that surround them) need to open soon. Far too many individuals and businesses have been economically devastated by this.
Many WILL NOT recover. The same is true for the beach town where we live in Coastal SC. Our local economy is in shambles.
Things need to get moving again, however slowly, so that individuals and businesses have a chance of recovering. The longer it drags on, the more difficult that recovery will be.
I was reading a bit about the economic devastation this has caused in Florida beyond tourism. It’s so awful and so all-encompassing that if they don’t get going soon, the long-term consequences will truly be catastrophic.
My husband and I currently have reservations at Disney for August ( re-scheduled from April) and plan on going then no matter how little may be open. We’ve had AP for years and my daughter works for Disney, so we’re never in a big rush to ride or do anything in particular.
Krista s……which do you pick, an open beach or the life and health of family, friend, or yourself. We all want to have economy recover, go to Disney and go out to eat. But priority has to go to health and life or the economy means nothing. Thanks to all essential people now who put their own health on the line so we may enjoy the future. Tom, did you ever expect all the comments? So free to be able to have these discussions and see many points of view.
Jaan,
Krista gave a different point of view that was reasonable and sympathetic to a group of people that are struggling just as much as those who have coronavirus, yet you tried to shut her down. Please do not downplay the struggles of those who have no way to feed their families or put a roof over their heads. Every death is terrible. However, the number of people who have lost jobs is incredibly higher than those who have had or will have Coronavirus. Have some sympathy for them. In terms of sheer numbers, their’s is the worse tragedy. This is some thing that business people understand no matter their political or social views. While Disney has to be somewhat sensitive to the fears of their guests, the bottom line is they have to make money in order to stay in business and in order to make money, they have to be open. Finally, how are we to establish any kind of immunity if everyone stays home? It is far better for the health of all, to have those who are healthy be exposed to the virus in order to better protect everyone else. No business can wait for a vaccine.
Allison and Krista,
Respect different points of view but can feel free to disagree. I am now unemployed. I do understand the financial problems and feel awful about all the people suffering. I have family going to schools for their meals. I am not shutting down this suffering of no job, no money, no food. I am also as a senior seeing friends and family get infected and some die. I see health care workers thinking that for all they’ve suffered to not continue to shelter in place might negate all they are working for. We all suffer but I still need to put life, health over economy which eventually we will recover from. May everyone get through this terrible time together, but apart. Eventually we will get back to Disney.
I would like to see them offer a deal to all Seniors Class of 2020, they waited their entire life, then without warning, lost their senior Disney trip, their prom & even graduation
Agreed! We had my son’s senior trip planned for March 27 and now has been rescheduled for September 4… I would love to see Disney offer something for the class of 2020 â¤ï¸
I agree. How about lowering the prices so everyone can enjoy it.
I LOVE 3D! Just had to out that out there. Being in Canada, I can’t go to Disney as long as the boarder is closed. Given the exchange rate my Disney vacation will be 35 to 40% higher in Canadian dollars, so if the US price of a vacation is $2000 it will cost me over $2800, never mind spending money, airfare (which isn’t as economical as in the US) and food. So, when I do go, I won’t want to find half the attractions closed. I get they need to open, but realistically, it will be local residents. Until this pandemic is under control everywhere, it would be risky for someone to travel from a highly infected state to one that has it under control and risk the spread. How much fun will it be to see Mickey while wearing a face mask. I had been thinking about a trip to WDW for Christmas before all this started, and I would have canceled it for sure. I have been to WDW 13 times, it’s my favorite place to go, but it’s because it’s an escape from the stresses of life.
Hi Sandra, I’m also from Canada, ottawa area. We had planned to go in March for March break, but then decided to go for Christmas in December. I won’t be going on any vacations until next year. Not worth the risk and my elderly parents live with us. Disney isn’t going anywhere, when things are safer, it’ll be there waiting for us.
I would really like to see Disney allow us to put our annual passes on hold for an extended period of time. We all can’t wait to get back to business as usual but due to underlying health issues many won’t feel safe returning to theme parks anytime soon.
We have July booked for my grandaughters birthday. SOO happy to hear they will be opening up. I will be there. I think there should be distance from people and happy to hear there would be a soft opening
You should offer discounts to first responders and nurses etc. the people that really had to be out there on the front lines. They have been through alot.
If I can’t come as a passholder from out of state I think it only fair that my pass be extended until such time as I am allowed to visit and not based on whatever date Florida’s residents can go. Perhaps this is the plan and I have missed that info.
I’m totally for Soft opening With Florida residents. Parades and showS could be 2-3 days a week and masks should be worn. Replace fingerprint identity at entrance with cell phone access. Maybe rotate guests last names for certain days entrance – last names A-F Monday’s, Wednesday’s , G-L Friday’s,
Have been a returning guest for over 40 years. So far, I have paid $10k in non-refundable deposits & tickets for a December trip. I feel my life & the lives of my family members are worth way more than $10k. I’m staying home until we have all gotten a proven vaccine.
@Mouselover
With all due respect, unless you modify your plan you will probably never see the inside of the parks again.
If I can’t come as a passholder from out of state I think it only fair that my pass be extended until such time as I am allowed to visit and not based on whatever date Florida’s residents can go. Perhaps this is the plan and I have missed that info.
mouselover, I’ll happily use your reservations for December…
What everyone is forgetting is that the shut down of our economy was not done to stop the virus, or to make anyone “feel” safer. It was not done to save lives, though that would be a secondary benefit, perhaps tertiary.
The shut down was done because the epidemiological models said the US would see well over 10 million infected, and over 2 million deaths, with 4 – 5 million hospitalized, and that would overwhelm our healthcare resources, like what has happened in Italy.
Those models have now been revised three times, and they are still wildly out of line with what is actually happening. With the exception of a couple of hot spots, most US hospitals are nearly empty, and have been furloughing staff because there’s been an order to halt all but emergency surgeries, procedures, and doctor appointments. Even in the worst hotspot, New York City, there have been plenty of resources to handle the load.
This whole exercise of shutting down our economy was to “flatten the curve.” That did not happen. If it had worked, the graphs of daily new cases would show a defined inflection two weeks after the shut downs started. (What South Korea did, has worked. It shows in their graph of daily new cases.) I’ve been watching and tracking the data daily. It is just now starting to decrease the angle of increase over the last few days. What that indicates is that this epidemic is following the same path as previous epidemics – Farr’s Law – and the actions taken to mitigate it did nothing. It has been an exercise in futility.
Again, the shut downs were not to prevent infection or deaths. Anyone who is prone to get infected will get infected, sooner or later. Anyone who is vulnerable to being killed by it, will get kill by it. One effect of slowing the spread is having a greater chance at effective treatments being found, but as long as everyone is arguing over them, simply because of who mentioned them, people will die of politics. But this is at the cost of 30 million jobs, untold numbers of failed businesses – large and small, food shortages, and a looming healthcare crisis that will kill more people than the virus will, even at its worst.
Among the businesses that may fail is Disney, if as some say, they do not reopen this calendar year. Disney is bleeding money at a rate of $40-50 million a DAY. Re-opening with few attractions, no shows, no character meets, no parades or fireworks, and 3 hour waits for rides like Winnie the Pooh, no one will go for that. People will not spend $100 a day to be in a park only to just walk around and do nothing but eat and shop, if that’s even an option, and do all that in the sweltering Florida heat while wearing a mask. People certainly will not pay $300 and up per night to stay in resorts with no on site dining, amenities, pools or entertainment either. There will be no buses, boats or monorail running – everyone will have to drive and park. But even with half staffing levels, Disney will still have to pay the Cast Members, buy food, maintain the premises, pay the utilities but with a third of the revenue. It will be far more costly to partially reopen than to stay closed.
When will it all be safe again? When there’s a vaccine?
We’re still waiting for a vaccine for the first SARS, seventeen years later.
Herd immunity? We can’t get that unless we’re allowed out of our homes to be exposed to the virus.
What needs to happen is for cooler heads to prevail, quell the panic, and make the bold decision to open everything back up. Not gradually, not in phases, but ALL of it, as soon as possible. The data show that the hospitals can handle the load, so there is no excuse not to.
@Ellen
Magnificent job of a factual review and discourse! Excellently supported and articulated conclusions. Bravo!
I am a Disney fan and active research scientist studying this disease. This poster is wrong on many points. Working backwards, there is no SARS vaccine because there wasn’t interest by NIH and other funding agencies to get one, because SARS infected people are contagious when they are about to die and not before they are symptomatic, so it was much easier to control. I know the people working on these vaccines. I would be optimistic.
It is far from certain that everyone will get infected with this virus, and the goal of shutting down was done to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. The logic is that they weren’t (they weren’t but they came close, and I know these people, they were scared to death), so they will SURELY be overwhelmed if we take the advice of this poster. Overwhelming the healthcare system leads to more deaths of patients and poorly protected healthcare workers, period. The statement that the shutdown was not done to prevent deaths is flatly incorrect.
The poster makes a politically charged statements about treatments, clearly designed to suggest that skepticism of Hydroxychloroquine is political. It’s not. It increases mortality in very recent, controlled studies. I was posting on facebook that “just because Trump says it, doesn’t mean its untrue”, but the data are increasingly clear. It increases cardiac complication that COVID already induces during infection, leading to negative outcomes. If you are looking for hope, Remdesivir looks like it has great potential. IL-6 inhibition looks good. It is reasonable to hope that these treatments could confine the virus to a more flulike spectrum of disease symptoms, and that could restore some level of normalcy. The poster is correct on this concept in general, so I will leave it on a positive note.
Feel free to reach out to me with any reasonable and honest questions. I left you my information.
Great. Can you speak to the oncoming chaos of the healthcare crisis, and how many people that is expected to kill, either from having care delayed, or being triaged out, and sent back home to await death? See, all those “elective” procedures that aren’t happening now will need to happen – if it’s not too late – when things reopen. The procedures scheduled to happen on the dates following reopening will have to be delayed to make room for them. Those procedures will bump the ones that follow, and on and on down the line. At the same time, hospital ORs will be working overtime with exhausted doctors and staff, trying to catch up on the backlog.
People who have stage one cancer *now* might be stage three or four by the time they can be treated. Cardiac patients that need invasive procedures are getting worse and worse. Diabetes management. Mental health services. All these patients are waiting for their appointments that are postponed.
We’re heading into a healthcare crisis that will make the hospital situation in New York look like a walk in the park.
Even the healthy will suffer. The supply chain in our food distribution is on the verge of collapse. Some say it is too late already, and we will face food shortages in the fall, and that will continue through the next growing season. Farmers are plowing under their fields, livestock is being slaughtered and left to rot. Many will not have the revenue to start back up. They can’t get the food to the processors, and even if they could, the plants are closed down. Truckers are giving up – they can’t make long haul trips because there is nowhere for them to stop and shower, get a meal, or get a good night sleep.
People are losing their jobs, many permanently. They will soon lose their housing, and be left to the streets. Mental health issues will take thousands of lives – some due to services not being available for current patients, many more due to despair.
All this, and much more, is the cost of panicking due to models that are, at best, educated guesses, and shutting down the economy. Even the revised models are way out of line with the actual numbers. As I said, in a few hot spots, the systems are strained, but still not overwhelmed. In NYC, this especially seems so because they have herded all the Covid patients into three hospitals. The rest lie nearly vacant. A Navy hospital ship was sent to take care of the expected overload of patients – 15 showed up. At an Army mobile hospital in Washington, no one showed up. In cities across the country, event centers, hotels, and other venues where leveraged to take patients. None were needed.
Again, go back and look at the videos of press conferences from around the middle of March. “We need to flatten the curve” was repeated over and over. Not reduce the number of infected, but slow them down, spread them out. If you look at the graphs paraded around at that time (Google image search for “flatten the curve” will bring many results) you’ll see that the area under the spiked curve given for no mitigation, is the same as the area under the expected curve with shut downs and other mitigation. The actual curve of hospitalized patients, by the way, is way below either line. And there is no inflection in the curve indicating any effect from shut downs or stay at home orders, in any state.
In my next comment, I am going to paste in something that was written by a medical researcher and medical school professor. He has shared it only with friends on Facebook, with permission to post without his name, because he is getting vitriol and hate from those in the grip of panic, yet lacking in enough education and/or intelligence to understand the data. It’s long, so it deserves its own entry.
We are panicking over a crisis that has not, and will not arrive. It’s time to end this farce.
From the learned professor mentioned above, some perspective:
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I have tried to collate some numbers for perspective, but the threads get heated, and I admit to a bit of vitriol myself.
So here’s some perspective on COVID19 vs. Flu. Read, ponder, think, but I’m not really interested in folks sharing or cutting/pasting and atributing to me. That just attracts the miracle overnight experts, and frankly, I don’t need that.
We have been tracking COVID19 for jsut over 2 months. First aggregated data on the COVID Tracking Project was March 4. there were 10 deaths reported in Washington State. Actually, the first deaths were reported 2/28.
Since then, we have amassed 37,321 deaths as of CTR’s 4 PM update on Aprill 20th – yesterday. That’s about 18,660 per month, but truth be told, it’s heavily weighted to the last 30 days. We broke 1000 on March 26th, and had only 322 deaths on March 21. So, 37k in a month.
Now, there’s good reason to average over 2 months, though. The current deaths are from infections that occurred AT LEAST 22 days ago, and numbers have been updated many times to account for cases missed early on.
So, with some conditional modifiers, let’s call the current churn 25k a month, just UNDER 1k per day. Yes, I know the actual US totals are over 1k/day, but they peaked at 2500 for a one-day total (the day NY, NJ and PA retroactively updated totals) a week ago and the last three days have been the lowest since April 7. So, they are trending down and we can be conservative.
So again, 25k/month, 1k per day for round numbers.
Now, lets talk influenza. I hear a lot of argument either way about comparing the severity or speed of COVID19 to the flu. For the purposes of this post, I’m going to use the term ILI – Influenza-like illness. It’s a larger catch-all to include pneumonia and what could POSSIBLY be COVID19 in some cases.
The worst ILI year in a decade was 2017-2018. “Flu-season” starts in mid-late Sept. and “ends” in April. ILI cases and deaths occur all year, but well over 80% occur within a 6-month period. So for severity and speed, we’re using the 6-month “season” figures.
2017-2018 – 61k ILI deaths. 21 million people sought medical care for ILI, 810,000 were hospitalized.
That’s 10k deaths per month. So COVID19 is 2.5 times worse. BTW, those deaths are predominately in people aged 75 and older. Sound familiar? By contrast, the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 caused ~40 million cases, 275,000 hospitalizations and 12,500 deaths in the U.S.
Now let’s talk severity. The 2014-2015 Flu season was arguably worse than 2017-2018 – there were “only” 51k deaths, but that was on 590,000 hospitalizations and 14 million seeking medical care. So, 80% of the deaths riding on 65% of the cases – If we equate 2014 and 2017 on that basis, for equal spread of disease, we might have seen 75,000 cases in 2014-2015. Using our monthly estimate based on the 6 month flu season – 12,500 deaths/month.
So we have a “heavy flu year” running 10k-12.5k per month, and COVID19 running 25k per month, and we’ve brought the “scary” factor down to 2x the flu.
But let’s look at what 2019 was shaping up to be: From Oct 1 ’19-Jan 1 ’20 there were 40k deaths reported from ILI. That’s half a flu season. A full flu season at that rate would have likely exceeded 80k deaths and run about 13-14k per month. 2019 and 2020 were well on their way to being a two-decade record ILI fatality year. Then we stopped couting in Feb because of COVID19.
There’s a number of ways to look at this – (1) COVID 19 is twice as bad as the flu. That’s scary, but it;s not 5x, 10x, 20x as has been reported in the media.
Frankly, the media reporting is reprehensible. It is unethical, and it is causing WAYA more problems than the disease.
(2) consider that we really CAN’T separate COVID19 and ILI deaths now. They have so many of the same symptoms and only serological blood tests can tell the difference. So, basically, the COVID19 deaths *ARE* ILI deaths. On that basis, COVID19 is only REALLY responsible for about 11-12K more deaths added to our monthly than ILI alone.
From that perspective, COVID19 *IS* the same as Influenza. It produces the same number of deaths – just in a more limited time period and ADDED TO the ILI deaths.
Now, take another couple of steps back. U.S. all-cause mortality (as of 2017) is 2.8 million deaths per year. 1.25 million are due to cancer and heart disease. Leaving out accidents and suicide, but including all of the main disease causes we get 1.8 million deaths per year due to diseases. Now, those diseases are the EXACT SAME CO-MORBIDITIES AND RISK FACTORS FOR COVID19! 1.8 mil a year is 150,000 deaths per month. For the entire US. Ther are >50k fatal heart attacks and heart failure per month. 50k cancer deaths. >10k strokes, >7k diabetic complications.
Per month.
THe number of disease deaths in the US per month is SIX TIMES the COVID19 death rate. … what’s worse, treatment for MOST of these disorders has been suspended by order of the respective governors. I have two friends with cancer. One needs surgery, another needs treatment. THOSE HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED because they are “not urgent.” A cousin’s spouse needs a liver transplant. Suspended, not urgent (enough).
Any peson complaining that a person doing the math and sharing the numbers and saying they “don’t care” about the folks who will die are ignoring the fact that for every COVID19 death, there are 6 other deaths occuring every minute, every day, every month.
And we can expect those numbers to go up.
Ah – but – New York City!
Yes, let’s look at NYC. They account for 40% of the cases and deaths from COVID19 in the country. NYC is averaging 550 new deaths per day over the last week.
The average all-cause mortality for NYC – including disease, accident, homicide, suicide, etc… is 440/day. The disease protion of that is about 50-60% as seen in US averages. But we also know that people who die of disease in NYC today are being lumped in with COVID19 cases – so that 550 a day is *probably* 220 of regular causes and 330 of COVID19 alone. Barely a doubling.
IF ONE LOOKS AT THE NUMBERS COVID19 is serious, and it’s an extra burden on healthcare and extra loss of life. But for those who deny, insult and denigraste comparisons to the flu? Um, no, we’re right, you’re wrong.
Oh, but the poor healtcare workers are overwhelmed!
Folks, I *TEACH* doctors. You will NEVER find a healthcare worker who is not overworked, overwhelmed, understaffed and underappreciated.
It’s because they ARE – it’s just that it’s … no different now.
Hospitals used to run on residents working 18, 36, 48 hour shifts. It was cheap labor, and because the senior docs had to do it, the junior docs will damn-well do it too!
But overwork and sleep deprivation causes medical mistakes. Hospitals had to hire more staff, spread out the shifts, but they had to keep an eye on all other expenses, too (plus liability) – so staffing ALWAYS suffers. It’s just how it is. We can’t graduate doctors, nurses and technicians to fill all of the needs.
So a poor overwhelemed front-line doc is to be admired for their dedication and deserves our respect, but their situation does NOT mean this disease is out of control. Anecdote does not equal data.
So, one final note on those scary models the media loves to cite. A friend says Models are ALWAYS wrong – they are for making educated guesses, then you observe the differences, and refine the model for the next time. Moreover, the modeling group at Five-thirty-eight did a great cartoon of why the modeling is so hard. Look it up, it’s informative.
To an extent, all of that is true. But there’s one big model that predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US and is the basis for the lockdown fear. They’ve since re-run the model and the prediction is now 200,000 deaths.
There is a problem with the model, and frankly, it borders on scientific malfeasance. It was a deliberate move to use a worst-case model set, and then it was released in a manner meant to scare people. If the originator of the model doesn’t lose their faculty position, I’d be VERY surprised.
See, that model was based on something called “R0.” In epidemiology, R0 is the number of people expected to get newly infected from each already infected person. An R0 of 1 means 1 person is infected, they infect 1, who in turn infects 1, and they infect 1, and so on. R0 of 2 means 1 person infects 2. They infect 4, who infect 8 – and adding in all of the originals, you actually have 15 people infected after 3 iterations.
A lot of the data coming in from over the world shows infection rates consistent with R0 between 2 and 3. China first reported R0 between 2 and 4, but US, Scandinavian and northern european countries, Iceland, and the Diamond Princess are most consistent with an R0 of about 2.3-2.5. Even Italy and New York City are consistent with R0 of less than 3.
But that original model used an R0 of 4.
Why? Well, they *say* they wanted a worst case model, and besides, China said it could be as high as 4.
But the *DATA* say that the R0 has never been that high. We have NO IDEA what the Chinese numbers are, they have obfuscated too much. But we know what the Diamond Princess cruise ship told us, and those folks were quarantined for a month after initial exposure. Data from Iceland, Hamburg Germany, Santa Clara CA, and the just-released study of pregant women in NYC tell us that even IF the R0 is that high, as much as 95% of healthy individuals could be completely without symptoms.
Perspective. It’s important. Yes, this is a scary disease, but really? It’s no scarier than having diabetes and no longer being able to feel your toes and know that you could trip and fall down a whole flight of stairs at any time. Trust me, I’m there.
It’s time we got perspective and stop bleating about things we know nothing about, We also need to look at the BIG PICTURE and take into account the people being denied treatment – or the folks who lost their jobs and health insurance, or the problems we are going to have in food processing and distribution.
People DIE from economic depression. They die from routine medical issues. They die from *DEPRESSION* for that matter – they take their own lives. COVID19 is no different. Either EVERY DEATH is a tragedy and needs to be prevented, or none of them are.
The best we can do is be realistic, understand the numbers, and have perspective.
Great comments.
Well said. Well said.
Ellen, there were not plenty of resources in NYC to handle the load of patients. Far from it. New Jersey either. Hospitals are definitely not empty. Doctors are working 56 hours out of 72. Doctors and nurses are getting sick or watching their co-workers get intubated. Many of them have died.
Some of my friends have been sewing masks and handing them out as needed. Others are delivering food to hospitals. The doctors and nurses are exhausted but they keep at it, trying to save lives and in too many cases, not being successful. They are the last face the dying person sees. It’s the doctors and nurses, not the patient’s loved ones, who have been comforting the dying. Their faces are bruised and raw from the gear they must wear while working. But they continue on. I don’t know which part of the country you’re talking about, but in our area, it’s been just awful.
I think they should open the park to people who had a reservation that was cancelled due to the virus first. (*Ahem*..my family….it’s looking like twice…) I also agree with some sort of testing at the gate would be ideal, but my concern is how many people apparently carry the virus without any symptoms. So if someone with zero symptoms has to be turned away at the gate, what will they do? Refund the money? I know you can’t get a refund when you are legitimately sick at the park and stuck in bed, but what about people who seem totally fine? Then there is the issue with faulty testing, and false positives/negatives. Hopefully, they will have such drastic social distancing measures in place that it will remove the absolute need for this experimental testing. We are planning on still going if they open in June, which doesn’t look likely. I know people will judge us harshly if we do go, but my thing is, the first week they open up seems like it will be the most sanitized place on the planet. It can’t possibly be any worse than the exposure I am getting when I do a 2x a month grocery/Lowe’s run…
I personally think the governor is going to make our numbers climb even higher. We are not going down yet. Its too soon and we will get more cases. I personally do not plan on leaving my home until july for regular shopping- if the numbers are stagnant or down. I will not be going anywhere near parks or taking vacations anytime this year unless it is gone completely or there is a treatment. Many floridians agree its too soon- I understand why the governor is tome deaf to his constituents, but thankfully disney and universal have seem to be listening and smarter then our elected officials.
As much as I would love to feel a sense of normalcy, it would not be wise. I am a huge Disney fan, and I feel that no matter how many safety precautions are taken, its all a false sense of security. COVID-19 is no joke… Lats be safe and wise.
You do your thing and I’ll do mine thank you. Your concept of “safe and wise” may not be mine. If it’s legal and I want to do it, I’m doing it.
Agreed. If folks don’t feel safe going places, no one is forcing them to go.
Tom,
Do you think it’s safe to book for December?
Feeling sorry for myself because tomorrow I was supposed to leave for 10 days to my happy place. I was going to be celebrating my ninth birthday for the 50th time. I don’t know how I’m going to get through this week knowing that there were a lot of cool and fun things planned. No matter how old I get I will always be that little girl in the magic kingdom. Be safe out there and we will all come together soon to our happy place!