Should Disney World Stay Closed?
With rising case numbers in Florida, many readers have been increasingly vocal that it’s too soon for the Walt Disney World theme parks to reopen. In this post, we’ll look at whether opening should be postponed, with the potential pros & cons, plus ramifications of the parks staying closed for now.
As you’re undoubtedly aware, Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom are set to reopen on July 11, followed by Epcot and Hollywood Studios on July 15. These reopening dates were set over one month ago, at a time when Florida’s new daily case numbers were at a fraction of their current levels.
This upward trend has prompted one local union and many guests to urge Walt Disney World to remain closed, worrying that the major tourist destination will only exacerbate Florida’s woes. With Disneyland delaying its planned reopening, more have suggested Walt Disney World should follow suit. So…should Walt Disney World stay closed for now?
We’ll be blunt and up-front: we truly do not know. We’re humble enough to admit that, and would likewise suggest the same is true for you. The problems facing Disney and Florida leaders are complex ones, with no easy answers.
Rather than presuming to have the requisite knowledge (we absolutely do not) to address every component of this convoluted issue, we’ll cover a few and analyze those, while clearly acknowledging that there is much more we simply do not know.
Obviously, new daily cases have risen. The Florida Department of Health reported 8,942 new cases last Friday, followed by 9,585 new cases on Saturday. These numbers shattered the previous daily high of 5,508 infections made earlier in the week. This week, numbers have been trending in the right direction, with 6,093 new cases being this week’s high.
Closer to home, Central Florida now has 25,727 cases, up 1,440 from a day earlier. Orange County’s latest heat map shows fewer cases along the tourist corridor (which includes Universal Orlando), with far more in the downtown Orlando area. Nevertheless, we won’t sugarcoat it–that’s still an alarming number of new cases. It’s also exponentially more than when Walt Disney World made the decision to reopen. This alone is sufficient basis for many to believe Walt Disney World is reopening too soon.
However, Florida’s weekly reported deaths have been under 300 for seven weeks in a row. From the week ending April 19 to the week ending May 10, reported deaths were 300 or over.
Moreover, even though over 80% of general and ICU beds are in use at hospitals in Orange and Seminole counties, local health officials say that they are not concerned, as elective surgeries and unrelated emergency procedures have increased in recent weeks. They further state that Central Florida hospitals continue to have enough capacity to handle any potential surges.
There remain a lot of unknowns about what activities are less and more likely to be conducive to spread. As we covered in our recent Best Outdoor Dining at Walt Disney World post, it’s safer to dine al fresco as being outdoors dramatically lowers the risk of transmission. That’s corroborated by this study where only two cases out of 7,000-plus could be traced to outdoor activity.
Public health authorities have identified bars as the locus of outbreaks in a number of states, including in Florida. These have been shown to be super-spreader scenarios for a variety of reasons, and we’re hopeful that Florida’s decision to close all bars after an explosion of cases and widespread non-compliance will further reduce new numbers. As that move was made only a week ago, we really won’t know its effectiveness for another week due to the incubation period.
Research also shows that contaminated surfaces and fleeting encounters are low-risk, whereas sustained person-to-person interactions, crowded events, and poorly ventilated areas are higher risk. This bodes well for constantly-moving and properly-spaced queues (even indoor ones), but not so much for indoor stage shows.
There’s also the reality that Universal Orlando and other Central Florida theme and amusement parks have been open for roughly one month, and we’ve yet to see any outbreaks traced to these parks. In fact, aside from a few isolated cases with connections to (but not causal ones) theme parks, nothing has been traced to them, period. This is despite Florida health officials documenting community spread in the state beginning last December.
This should not be construed as conclusive proof that theme parks are “safe” places to visit right now. To the contrary, the expert consensus is that there are aspects of the theme park experience that are inherently higher-risk for visitors. More importantly, the parks being operational puts thousands of Cast Members who are in regular and direct contact with guests at risk.
The hope is that the enhanced safety standards, health protocol, and operational changes are sufficient to mitigate those risks. However, there are still simply too many unknowns about the efficacy of such measures. Studies and research continue, and our collective knowledge is evolving.
We won’t rehash all of the health and safety measures here as this is already going to be a long post, aside from one: face masks. The science is clear on masks, and they have proven effective in combating spread elsewhere around the globe. (From a purely economic perspective, even Goldman Sachs supports a nationwide mask mandate, asserting that it could substitute for another lockdown and save the economy from a 5% GDP hit.)
Both Japan and Hong Kong have been incredible success stories of the pandemic, despite neither having a coherent government response (both were arguably failures on a governmental level). Even with their denser populations, ubiquitous mass transit, and relatively lax restrictions, both have seen far fewer cases and hospitalizations than other nations. The crucial difference is that both Hong Kong and Japan adopted near-universal masking without any government mandate.
This is relevant because, unlike elsewhere in Florida, Walt Disney World and Universal have face mask policies that are being actively enforced. To be sure, compliance is not 100%, but it’s much better than anywhere else in the Orlando area. We’ve been to both Disney Springs and CityWalk a few times, plus our recent resort stay, and have felt safest at those locations.
Our local Publix has been so bad that we won’t even go back there, as it’s the wild west as compared to compliance at Disney and Universal. With that said, there’s an obvious distinction: grocery stores are an essential necessity, whereas theme parks and other entertainment complexes are not.
However, one of the most compelling reasons for reopening Walt Disney World is its instrumental role in Central Florida’s tourism-dependent economy. We hesitate to even broach this, as there has been a lot of cringe-worthy sentiment about ‘sacrificing grandma for the economy.’ This has caused unnecessary polarization and partisanship, which has done a disservice to the larger conversation.
The reality is that what America faces is a multifaceted problem that is now as much about housing and food insecurity as it is about the pandemic itself. Too much of the surrounding conversation has been myopic and reductionist, completely devoid of nuance, and attempting to offer a simple solution to a complex problem. This can be acutely illustrated by what’s already happening in Central Florida.
Florida’s broken unemployment system has made national headlines, with countless stories of system crashes, denial errors, and non-payments. Officially, more than 771,000 claims have been rejected and over 175,000 claims have yet to be verified, with unemployment in the Orlando area jumping to 22.6%, which is the worst in the state and far above the national average.
Every Floridian undoubtedly knows someone impacted (if they haven’t been affected themselves), and there have been harrowing reports on the local and national news. Before continuing any further, we’d strongly recommend reading ‘We Live From the Tourists’ in the New York Times and Orlando Sentinel’s latest on Florida unemployment. These tell vivid stories of the heart-wrenching human toll. In short, for many Cast Members, Walt Disney World reopening is “essential.”
To be abundantly clear: people should not be forced to choose between their financial and bodily health. There are numerous systemic problems on local, state, and federal levels that need to be fixed. However, as a practical reality, there is no waving a magic wand at this point and solving all of those. We have to play the cards we’re dealt, not the ones we wish we had.
There is little denying that America has failed this moment on multiple levels, including individual ones. While we desperately wish many aspects of this had and would still play out differently, we are realists. Our wishes are not viable realities that can instantaneously be ‘snapped’ into existence. Given that Florida’s unemployment system has not been fixed after four months, there is no reason to believe it’s going to be fixed at this point.
The longer the closure stretches on, the worse the economic fallout. Permanent layoffs have already begun throughout the Central Florida tourism sector. Last week, Universal Orlando laid off a number of employees across various departments. One Disney Springs restaurant operator announced it’s permanently laying off 143 workers. Cirque du Soleil has filed for bankruptcy protection and laid off 95% of its workforce.
While there have been no reports that Walt Disney World has begun its own layoffs, it’s naive to think the same won’t occur there. During the Great Recession, Disney laid off around 1,900 Parks & Resorts employees in a single round. During the previous dot-com bubble burst, Walt Disney World laid off 1,200 to 1,400 employees.
Moreover, Walt Disney World’s actions or inactions reverberate through Central Florida. A wide swath of area businesses are critically dependent upon the tourism Disney drives. Restaurants, hotels, smaller attractions, and more all directly rely on spillover business from Walt Disney World. Myriad others in Mousetown are indirectly tied to Disney.
Walt Disney World is a behemoth in Florida, and many industries rise and fall with Disney. There’s a simple reason all other area business leaders on the Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force were so emphatic about Walt Disney World reopening–their futures depend upon it.
Experts widely believe that Central Florida’s tourism industry will take years to fully recover, meaning that these are the opening salvos of widespread layoffs that are inevitable throughout the region. The extent of the industry-wide layoffs depends upon how quickly theme park operators can bounce back and convince the general public it’s safe to plan trips.
Walt Disney World reopening in July isn’t an effort to salvage the summer–it’s about the fall and holiday season. Save for DVC members, Annual Passholders, and diehard fans with existing trips, what’s left of the summer is already a lost cause. No matter when the parks reopen, it’s going to take several months to ramp up operations and even start to return to a semblance of normal and attract tourists back. The greater the delay, the deeper and longer-lasting the wounds.
Ultimately, even this just paints a partial picture. There are no doubt countless other factors and variables, both for and against reopening. And to be abundantly clear, we truly don’t know where we come down on this question. It’s tempting to offer simple solutions to complicated problems, but we’d again caution against that. Frankly, I’m quite thankful to not be one of the Disney or local leaders tasked with the unenviable decisions in front of them. It’s a veritable buffet of least-bad choices. Even equipped with better knowledge, there’s no way of knowing today what unintended consequences will result from any decision.
Finally, we’ll reiterate what we said at the end of “Our Surreal Stay at Walt Disney World” post. While a lot of this likely reads as being pro-reopening, we still would err on the side of not traveling to Florida for vacation right now. (To that point, we are not traveling anywhere.) Even with risk mitigation efforts in the parks & resorts, the fact remains that cases are spiking. Flying to Florida and taking a weeklong Walt Disney World vacation right now is not no-risk or even low-risk. We’d also be incredibly apprehensive about planning a trip for the fall. If you’re an out of state tourist, you can play it safe and take a wait and see view to see how things play out. Such a tentative approach is arguably not as practical for Walt Disney World’s decision-makers when considering the long-term and holistic health of Central Florida.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think–is it too early to reopen, the appropriate time, or do you likewise not feel comfortable offering a definitive answer? Are there additional major factors we’ve failed to consider? Agree or disagree with our assessment? We anticipate this being a controversial topic, but please keep the comments civil. A variety of viewpoints are welcomed here, and comments will not be deleted for their perspective alone. However, we will not tolerate insults, arguing, conspiracy theories, or politically-charged comments. Don’t ruin a 95% fine comment with an unnecessary cheap shot—that 5% will get it deleted. Additionally, please do not incessantly harp on the same point across multiple comments. Respectfully share your opinion and move along.
Thank you for a very well written post. It is refreshing to read an objective, fact-based post devoid of partisanship or opinion. You present the nuances of the current situation very well, and clearly have concern for ensuring good information is presented.
Thank you, Tom, for this well-balanced—as always—and informative analysis. I especially appreciate your points regarding the efficacy of masks in other countries and the difference between stringent safety measures at the parks versus the free-for-all in other public spaces. I would feel safe going to the Disney parks and staying on property this summer – but I also agree that it’s probably better right now for people to not venture too far from home, so I’ll keep my butt in the Midwest and then reassess in the fall.
There are MANY levels of severity with this virus. I live in central Florida and work at a plant with 265 people. We have not had 1 single case. My neighbor had it and he had only a slight cough
Said he felt perfectly fine. OPEN!!!!
I live in NJ, and know of several people who have died from Covid, as well as one person still dealing with physical after effects after three months. Not all of the people I know of who had Covid we’re elderly or otherwise ill (aka chronic health conditions).
The people I personally know who have gotten sick have ranged from “wouldn’t even know they were sick looking at them (slight fever),” to dead, to various states of health in between.
As long as there are misguided, ignorant and selfish people in the US who refuse to wear masks, WDW should not open. (Note, my Disney trip For 12 family members that had been planned over 2 years ago for this June had to be cancelled, so count me as a park fan… though a disappointed one).
The virus trends in the US versus trends in the EU and other parts of the world are shocking and an embarrassment. You can’t hide from BB BM the facts.
Those in a position, (like large BBC corporations ala Disney) to help shape common sense health policy and enforcement, should take a stand to help the US get through this, despite the best efforts of some who have no problem with prolonging the suffering.
I applaud Disney for trying to control what it can, but they need to stay closed to help send a message to the country and the world that we are better than this.
If everyone would just wear a mask in public whether your at a grocery store or any indoor location, the virus numbers would drop like a rock in a month, just like in Japan. For obvious reasons some politicians are scared to death to force people to wear a mask, because of the public backlash. The mask work, it’s a proven fact. The country is just too stubborn to comply.
Tom
I can see you are taking the middle of the road as you must for the sake of your business/blog but unfortunately many Americans have fallen victim of one group working every angle to hurt another group. The answer to your question of Disney opening or not is in the eye of the beholder. The numbers we get everyday on the cases of Corona can and are being manipulated by both groups. Just look at the different numbers we get from each poll group and whos paying for the poll’s. I think it is a personal decision as to go to Disney or not. Where your mask to protect others, wash your hands and social distance to protect yourself. As for my vote, OPEN and get your fingers out of the pie. We all want a piece!!! As always thanks for your insight and commentary.
If my perspective were formed ‘for the sake of the blog’ it would be that ONLY tourists should visit and Floridians should stay home, as the former is our predominant reader demographic.
Instead, we recommend out of state visitors err on the side of caution, take a wait and see approach, and not visit right now. I also wouldn’t be so blatantly pro-mask, as the majority of readers long ago made it obvious where they stand on that issue.
If I’m playing an angle, I’m doing the worst possible job at it.
Sorry, but data is not a poll. Facts are facts. I encourage everyone to seek out primary source materials.
Yes absolutely the parks should be closed. The state has closed all the bars and I don’t think further closings will end there. There will be more closings in Florida to follow. When Disney displays a sign about contracting Covid during your visits on their property that is basically stating ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK, then Disney SHOULD NOT be opening until it’s safe. I feel Disneys sign is not only relieving itself of responsibility but cryptically saying it isn’t safe!
Disney World should definitely stay closed for now. To open it now will endanger their workers and quests. I wouldn’t go if they gave me airfare, hotel, meals, car rental and admissions for free. It’s not worth risking our lives for a little fun. I would rather wait until things are very safe before going back to Disney World. If they do open as planned they are putting their workers and guests lives at risk and showing money us the most important thing, not peoples lives and safety. That puts Disney World in a very poor light. Walt Disney would obviously care about the safety of people and would not open the parks yet.
Where I live (Alabama) cases are spiking as well and people are not wearing masks and not taking it seriously. I think in my case I would be at higher risk going to the local WalMart than Disney.
I totally get the arguments for and against. I just don’t see Disney staying closed while Universal is open. That wouldn’t make much sense. If Disney doesn’t open I think it will be a bilateral safety decision with universal.
Being a resident of not only Florida, but also Orlando, I am highly hesitant for any mass gatherings of any type right now. My family and I have poked our heads out a few times, going to parks, or to a store, and are HIGHLY disturbed at the lack of compliance with masks and social distancing. It’s not just low, it’s non-existent. I would be more worried about any tourists coming here versus Floridians that have already given up on being safe. This is just the beginning.
JMO – The spread of the virus is inevitable. We may be able to slow the spread and that is all any leadership can attempt. If you are waiting on or expecting government to save you, you are already lost. The sooner young and healthy people have it and build up immunity the better for the rest of us. Yes, Disney World should open. Those with underlying health issues, the aged and infirm should take personal responsibility to protect themselves as much as practicable. Which would include avoiding crowds such as those expected at Disney World. I refuse to live in fear.
Exactly this!
Very well said.
Amen Papa L! Americans need to find their courage again!!!!!!!
Well said.
@ Papa L
In order to achieve the herd immunity naturally in the population somewhere between 70-80% of the population would likely have to be infected with COVID and recover. About 300 million people live in the US, and given that COVID kills about 1% of those who are infected, that would result in approximately 2-3 million people dead before herd immunity was achieved, not to mention the long-term health consequences for the survivors that we are already seeing today. Furthermore, given that hospitals and medical resources in many areas are already overwhelmed by a 15% infection rate, an infection rate on the herd immunity scale would devastate our ability to treat those who were infected and likely increase the death rate. This of course is all assuming that those who have survived COVID are actually immune to it for the long-term.
There are many reasons to justify re-opening, but increasing immunity in the population is not one of them. The only feasible way we are ever going to approach herd immunity is if a vaccine is developed.
We had AKL reservations for July 18-26, which we canceled. The past week’s numbers cemented that it was the right decision for our family. We had planned on shortening the reservation and doing it as resort only, staying out of the parks, but ultimately, the signals we were getting from Disney is that they really don’t want visitors right now. I think they have to accommodate their legal obligations to DVC owners, which is what they’re doing by having those resorts open. And yes, I lay this clearly at the feet of the failed leadership in the state of Florida and the federal government. They are the primary reason that I won’t be spending thousands of dollars in Florida this year.
I really think it should stay closed until it is safe to be able to completely re-open. I understand the job losses are difficult ( I’ve been off since March 15, no idea when I’ll be back) and financial loss to the community are difficult. But why risk MORE loss and damage while the virus still runs rampant. Florida being a major hit spot right now! I know for myself, if I’m going to spending a fair amount on a vacation to Disney, I would like to be able to access everything, see all the shows, ride everything, eat at whatever restaurant I choose to etc. To be limited from options but still spend a lot of money? Sorry but I can’t justify that either. My heath comes first regardless, so I doubt I’ll be traveling anywhere until next year at least. I look forward to traveling and getting away, but it will wait.
I believe the numbers will be misleading as those that contract the virus when traveling will be counted where they return to, not where they contract it. So the magnitude of the spread from vacation destinations like Disney will be understated.
That’s true to an extent, but as the ones coming into the most contact with people, there will be an outbreak among Cast Members that should be readily identifiable.
Thus far, that has not happened at Universal since reopening. It also didn’t happen at Walt Disney World between December and March, when there was community spread within Florida. Perhaps that’s just a matter of luck, but if so, that’s a lot of luck.
That’s true Tom. Good point about cast members, they are at the biggest risk. We were there in early March just as the virus started to really ramp up. Maybe we were lucky to not get it (or maybe we did, but didn’t have symptoms). We have pretty much stayed home since that trip.
Tom, you are so right about the complexity of the issue. There is truly no right answer, and no matter what Disney, Orange County, or the State of Florida does, they’re going to tick off half the people. People are suffering from the disease – some medically, some financially, and nearly everyone is having an emotional toll taken on them. Adding in to all of this is the politicization of the problem. I was in a meeting this week for policies for reopening my church that has been closed for in-person services since March. Even in that building, there were 12 people and 12 opinions – from “we absolutely cannot open because it is too dangerous” to “we absolutely must open to return to normal” and ten other opinions in between. It quickly devolved into an argument of what news outlet you watched or read and how that particular one was the personification of evil. In the end, we as citizens have to look out for ourselves and each other – medically, financially, and emotionally. Yes, some risks will need to be taken. However, some precautions need to be taken as well. If being open helps someone who has been struggling financially, that is a risk that may be worth taking. If wearing a mask mitigates some of the risk, that is a precaution that needs to taken as well. Each of us needs to calculate the risks we are taking and how our behaviors affect ourselves and others. From staying closed to opening ASAP and everything in between, be mindful that each action runs a risk – some are just more easily seen and counted than others.
Yes, it should remain closed. Wave two is upon us, and Florida is postured to be the new global epicenter of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It’s irresponsible for them to try to be open. WDW is not worth dying for.
If the nation had been uniformly asked to quarantine and people actually complied, this would have been over in a month. None of that happened. Now we have a really big problem on our hands, and the states that are already being hit the hardest have the least capacity to handle it.
Stay home. Wear a mask.
Open it up!
Plenty of people that don’t live in fear would like to go!!
The “I refuse to live in fear” mantra is nothing but gaslighting. Plenty of people aren’t quaking in their houses at the fear of COVID as much as they are staying educated and aware and following health guidelines to keep themselves and other’s safe. There is a big difference between fearful and careful.
Thanks Tom, for a nuanced and smart look at what is happening with Disney. I am going to share this on my social media, as I think all my Disney-loving friends will appreciate it too.
@Aaron Its arguably still wave one. Its the first real big outbreak for a lot of these hotspots. That said, I still think Disney can open (even though I have no plans of visiting anytime soon) so long as they vigilantly enforce safety measures and also are open and willing to close the second its clear that the risk is too great.
This is a great post. I very much appreciate the nuance and thoughtfulness that has gone into this. It stands in stark contrast to some other Disney blogs who make universal statements and pretend they know everything and how it should be. They don’t, no one does.
Now for my thoughts. I’m an RN, I’ve been involved with data analysis of Covid for the large hospital system I work for. There a few points I think are very important.
First, wear masks. It’s clear they are beneficial and it’s a simple step you can take to help. It costs you almost nothing and could save a life.
Second, the data we are getting now can not be compared to the data from early in the Pandemic. We are testing much more and have a better grip on how this disease acts. 10k cases a day may seem like a lot, but I would not be surprised that if we had similar testing in March New York may have been seeing over 100k cases a day. Don’t compare those numbers.
Third, most news stories focus on number of cases per day. This is essentially useless information. It doesn’t take into account the size of the population or the number of tests run. For example today saw over 10k cases in FL, yesterday saw just over 6k. But, today’s numbers were better than yesterday’s on the case front because the positivity rate went down.
There are three numbers that matter. Positivity rate, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Fourth, we have to learn to live with this now. It didn’t have to get to this stage but the abysmally slow reaction of every government around the world caused this to become endemic. But, now there is no putting the Genie back in the bottle (at least not until we get a vaccine). Shutting down only delays the inevitable. That was important in March because we were totally unprepared. We are better prepared now. The best thing now is to learn how to open run the economy while slowing the spread so hospitals can cope. Masks, distancing, hygiene. If hospitals begin to get overrun than another shutdown may be necessary.
On that point I would also like to mention that 80% ICU capacity is actually quite low. Most hospitals ran their ICUs close to 90% and even at 99% at times before the pandemic. I just want to point this out because it can be an alarming number to someone who doesn’t work in a hospital, but is actually pretty comfortable to those of us that do.
We have reservations at the end of July. Unfortunately I rented points at DVC to go so I can’t cancel. But, I believe we can go safely. We will wear N95s on the plane and be meticulous about hand hygiene, mask wearing, staying outside, and avoiding crowds while there. We know it is higher risk, but I’m not convinced it is much higher risk than staying home. Where we’re from may be seeing the beginning of a spike now, but we’ve been in good shape for awhile. People have relaxed and aren’t taking precautions as much as they should. It’s possible going to a place that knows they have higher levels of the virus and thus are taking precautions is safer than a place that doesn’t realize the virus is still spreading and isn’t taking precautions.
The bottom line is to look at the information, make your choice and try to protect those around you. But I don’t know what the best decision is or what decision someone else should make, and neither do you. We need to be ok with not knowing, we need to be gracious with those we disagree with.
This! I agree this is serious but I think the numbers are being manipulated and I’m really tired of the fear-mongering being done by a media that is just interested in getting page views. Absolutely, 100% I believe people should take precautions – masks, limiting indoor areas, 6 feet social distancing, etc. – and I believe people at high risk should take even more precautions. But it’s strange to me when everyone is freaking out about *absolute numbers* of cases in Florida when Florida is the *third* most populous state in the country, and when death rates and hospitalization rates are going down. Ditto re people freaking out about ICU utilization – ICU’s weren’t meant to be empty. I think some of the transparent fear-mongering is actually contributing to the anti-mask folks. I wish we could be more reasonable on *both* sides.
This is wonderful insight! Thank you for the reasoned and objective information 🙂
This Florida RN completely agrees. Thank you for saying this.
Thank you Majorfriend!! What a great post. There really is no right answer but with all my family working in hospitals we would agree exactly with what you said!!! Everyone must do what’s right for them and their comfort level with. Love and grace to all:)
Nurse here from CT- completely agree. We are going in August, the first of 3 trips planned. Our numbers are so low now, and while the positives may be rising in FL that doesn’t mean everything. There’s so much more to look at than that number. While we have been following mask guidelines here since April, going to WDW is no different than us being home at this point. Also rented DVC points for August’s trip so we cannot cancel. We did buy DVC last week, so for the other trips if we have to we can but we have no intentions on doing so
Thank you for this post. I found it very helpful!!
What a fabulous view on all of this craziness! Thank you! I agree completely that no one can make the best decision for someone else. Everyone has to look at their own circumstances and decide what is best for them. Reminds me of someone I knew with Celiacs disease who felt everyone around her should “have to suffer” with her and not eat any gluten while she was around. As the mom of a kid with a life threatening tree nut allergy I thought this view was ridiculous. I don’t expect the world to stop eating tree nuts because my kid can’t have them. If a restaurant can’t accommodate, we choose to eat somewhere else. If we go to someone’s house, we certainly don’t expect them to tailor the food to her needs, we bring what she needs. Look at your circumstances, make the choices that are best for you, and respect that others may have a very different choice. We are fingers crossed our trip in December happens!!!!! Take care all:)
Hi Tom,
Couldn’t agree more with this statement:
“To be abundantly clear: people should not be forced to choose between their financial and bodily health.“
However that is precisely what Davids Vacation Club Rentals is doing to me right now and countless others. They are forcing people to travel who do not feel safe doing so or risk their financial well-being by forfeiting their money (in my case over $2000).
They are using the fact that Disney World will be opening back up as justifications for their actions but it’s plain unethical to put someone’s life at risk for their own financial gain. As such, I truly hope that Disney World will be responsible enough to not reopen any time soon due to the rise in case.
Or if they do, I think it’s wise to do what others have suggested and open it only to Florida residents.
We don’t need people traveling right now making this a worse issue than it is. And this is coming from someone with a travel blog.
@Katherine beware the sunk cost fallacy. The 2K is gone whether you go or not. I would stay home and not feel forced to go at all. I do sympathize-it sucks!! But don’t risk your health for the sake of “getting your money’s worth.”
@Katherine While I agree that David’s and other vacation clubs are behaving poorly here (albeit within their legal rights) and they are using the re-opening as an excuse to deny refunds or any assistance to make things right, that money is gone already. I do see points renters as one of the best arguments against opening precisely for the reasons you mentioned, but they are a small enough percentage of people who go to Disney (and frankly, given that Disney isn’t making money off them, not a group they are too concerned about). As BklynSteph pointed out, don’t feel forced to go if you don’t feel comfortable doing so. What’s worse, spending $2000 and feeling safe at home without going to WDW or spending $2000 and not enjoying your trip because of the reduced experience and because you are stressed and worried for your safety/about getting seriously ill?
I still think there’s a possibility Disney can open safely, but I personally wouldn’t risk it. I just don’t trust other people enough to be considerate enough to behave properly and I don’t go to WDW enough to justify paying that much for the reduced experience necessary to attempt to make it operate safely. YMMV, but don’t feel like you have to go because the rental companies are being jerks about refunds.
Yes definitely!
We cannot wait out the virus. It’s not going to go away, ever. It’s going to be with us forever, just like all previous epidemic/pandemic viruses. Recall Spanish Flu in 1918? It wiped out millions. People stayed home, wore masks, stayed away from others (social distancing) and still it ravaged entire populations. But it’s still here – we call it Influenza A now. It’s still deadly, globally taking millions of lives every year, 40 – 65 thousand each year in the US, and that’s with effective treatments and vaccines.
The metrics to look at are hospitalizations vs capacity – and 80% utilization is LOW; anything under 90% means the hospital is losing money (I used to support the software and databases the bean counters use), and deaths. Both rates are staying steady or declining in many areas. The latest CDC update stated the *symptomatic* case death rate is 0.4%, with the overall rate being 0.26%. For those under 60 with no comorbidities, it’s closer to 0.13%.
Take into consideration also that there are far more tests being done. Back in March, the only people getting tested were those with profound symptoms. Now anyone can drive up and get a test. People are being required to test before going back to work – if they’re positive, they have to repeat test until they are negative, and all those repeated tests are being counted as individual cases. People who are hospitalized for non-Covid illnesses and injuries are being tested. If positive, they are counted as a case, and as a hospitalized case as well.
It’s not just about the number of cases. Remember, it was supposed to be about flattening the curve – saving the hospitals. They are fine, not even close to being overwhelmed. The virus has moved into a younger, hardier population that has more asymptomatic cases, or milder cases, not going into the hospital or dying anywhere near as frequently as our elders. Other correlations have been found that can impact one’s susceptibility to SARS-CoV2, or the severity of Covid-19, the most profound of which is Vitamin D deficiency. Another is blood sugar levels, and obesity – those “quarantine snacks” so many have been making can make things so much worse.
As Tom noted, a larger concern is the impact on the economy – with millions still out of work – and supply chains of food and vital supplies. That can already be seen – just go to your local big box store and look at all the empty shelves. Pretty soon, that’s going to hurt all of us, really, really bad.
Thank you Ellen for stating facts that facts that underly the current rise in positive testings. I wish more people would keep their eyes on the death rates rather than the number of cases. As you said, we aren’t going to “fix” corona.
Thank you for this perspective. It’s so easy to forget that the whole purpose of the quarantine was to flatten the curve – NOT to eradicate the virus altogether. With hospital occupancy at safe levels and the actual death rate flattening, looks like the initial purpose has been achieved. It’s shocking to me how many people continue to call for a nationwide shutdown.
agree 100%, well said Ellen!
yep
I expect WDW to announce a delay to reopen after DL’s delay, especially given that the reopen date is approximately 2 weeks after Fourth of July, which is predicted to cause a spike in cases across the country based on Memorial Day results.