Should Disney World Stay Closed?
With rising case numbers in Florida, many readers have been increasingly vocal that it’s too soon for the Walt Disney World theme parks to reopen. In this post, we’ll look at whether opening should be postponed, with the potential pros & cons, plus ramifications of the parks staying closed for now.
As you’re undoubtedly aware, Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom are set to reopen on July 11, followed by Epcot and Hollywood Studios on July 15. These reopening dates were set over one month ago, at a time when Florida’s new daily case numbers were at a fraction of their current levels.
This upward trend has prompted one local union and many guests to urge Walt Disney World to remain closed, worrying that the major tourist destination will only exacerbate Florida’s woes. With Disneyland delaying its planned reopening, more have suggested Walt Disney World should follow suit. So…should Walt Disney World stay closed for now?
We’ll be blunt and up-front: we truly do not know. We’re humble enough to admit that, and would likewise suggest the same is true for you. The problems facing Disney and Florida leaders are complex ones, with no easy answers.
Rather than presuming to have the requisite knowledge (we absolutely do not) to address every component of this convoluted issue, we’ll cover a few and analyze those, while clearly acknowledging that there is much more we simply do not know.
Obviously, new daily cases have risen. The Florida Department of Health reported 8,942 new cases last Friday, followed by 9,585 new cases on Saturday. These numbers shattered the previous daily high of 5,508 infections made earlier in the week. This week, numbers have been trending in the right direction, with 6,093 new cases being this week’s high.
Closer to home, Central Florida now has 25,727 cases, up 1,440 from a day earlier. Orange County’s latest heat map shows fewer cases along the tourist corridor (which includes Universal Orlando), with far more in the downtown Orlando area. Nevertheless, we won’t sugarcoat it–that’s still an alarming number of new cases. It’s also exponentially more than when Walt Disney World made the decision to reopen. This alone is sufficient basis for many to believe Walt Disney World is reopening too soon.
However, Florida’s weekly reported deaths have been under 300 for seven weeks in a row. From the week ending April 19 to the week ending May 10, reported deaths were 300 or over.
Moreover, even though over 80% of general and ICU beds are in use at hospitals in Orange and Seminole counties, local health officials say that they are not concerned, as elective surgeries and unrelated emergency procedures have increased in recent weeks. They further state that Central Florida hospitals continue to have enough capacity to handle any potential surges.
There remain a lot of unknowns about what activities are less and more likely to be conducive to spread. As we covered in our recent Best Outdoor Dining at Walt Disney World post, it’s safer to dine al fresco as being outdoors dramatically lowers the risk of transmission. That’s corroborated by this study where only two cases out of 7,000-plus could be traced to outdoor activity.
Public health authorities have identified bars as the locus of outbreaks in a number of states, including in Florida. These have been shown to be super-spreader scenarios for a variety of reasons, and we’re hopeful that Florida’s decision to close all bars after an explosion of cases and widespread non-compliance will further reduce new numbers. As that move was made only a week ago, we really won’t know its effectiveness for another week due to the incubation period.
Research also shows that contaminated surfaces and fleeting encounters are low-risk, whereas sustained person-to-person interactions, crowded events, and poorly ventilated areas are higher risk. This bodes well for constantly-moving and properly-spaced queues (even indoor ones), but not so much for indoor stage shows.
There’s also the reality that Universal Orlando and other Central Florida theme and amusement parks have been open for roughly one month, and we’ve yet to see any outbreaks traced to these parks. In fact, aside from a few isolated cases with connections to (but not causal ones) theme parks, nothing has been traced to them, period. This is despite Florida health officials documenting community spread in the state beginning last December.
This should not be construed as conclusive proof that theme parks are “safe” places to visit right now. To the contrary, the expert consensus is that there are aspects of the theme park experience that are inherently higher-risk for visitors. More importantly, the parks being operational puts thousands of Cast Members who are in regular and direct contact with guests at risk.
The hope is that the enhanced safety standards, health protocol, and operational changes are sufficient to mitigate those risks. However, there are still simply too many unknowns about the efficacy of such measures. Studies and research continue, and our collective knowledge is evolving.
We won’t rehash all of the health and safety measures here as this is already going to be a long post, aside from one: face masks. The science is clear on masks, and they have proven effective in combating spread elsewhere around the globe. (From a purely economic perspective, even Goldman Sachs supports a nationwide mask mandate, asserting that it could substitute for another lockdown and save the economy from a 5% GDP hit.)
Both Japan and Hong Kong have been incredible success stories of the pandemic, despite neither having a coherent government response (both were arguably failures on a governmental level). Even with their denser populations, ubiquitous mass transit, and relatively lax restrictions, both have seen far fewer cases and hospitalizations than other nations. The crucial difference is that both Hong Kong and Japan adopted near-universal masking without any government mandate.
This is relevant because, unlike elsewhere in Florida, Walt Disney World and Universal have face mask policies that are being actively enforced. To be sure, compliance is not 100%, but it’s much better than anywhere else in the Orlando area. We’ve been to both Disney Springs and CityWalk a few times, plus our recent resort stay, and have felt safest at those locations.
Our local Publix has been so bad that we won’t even go back there, as it’s the wild west as compared to compliance at Disney and Universal. With that said, there’s an obvious distinction: grocery stores are an essential necessity, whereas theme parks and other entertainment complexes are not.
However, one of the most compelling reasons for reopening Walt Disney World is its instrumental role in Central Florida’s tourism-dependent economy. We hesitate to even broach this, as there has been a lot of cringe-worthy sentiment about ‘sacrificing grandma for the economy.’ This has caused unnecessary polarization and partisanship, which has done a disservice to the larger conversation.
The reality is that what America faces is a multifaceted problem that is now as much about housing and food insecurity as it is about the pandemic itself. Too much of the surrounding conversation has been myopic and reductionist, completely devoid of nuance, and attempting to offer a simple solution to a complex problem. This can be acutely illustrated by what’s already happening in Central Florida.
Florida’s broken unemployment system has made national headlines, with countless stories of system crashes, denial errors, and non-payments. Officially, more than 771,000 claims have been rejected and over 175,000 claims have yet to be verified, with unemployment in the Orlando area jumping to 22.6%, which is the worst in the state and far above the national average.
Every Floridian undoubtedly knows someone impacted (if they haven’t been affected themselves), and there have been harrowing reports on the local and national news. Before continuing any further, we’d strongly recommend reading ‘We Live From the Tourists’ in the New York Times and Orlando Sentinel’s latest on Florida unemployment. These tell vivid stories of the heart-wrenching human toll. In short, for many Cast Members, Walt Disney World reopening is “essential.”
To be abundantly clear: people should not be forced to choose between their financial and bodily health. There are numerous systemic problems on local, state, and federal levels that need to be fixed. However, as a practical reality, there is no waving a magic wand at this point and solving all of those. We have to play the cards we’re dealt, not the ones we wish we had.
There is little denying that America has failed this moment on multiple levels, including individual ones. While we desperately wish many aspects of this had and would still play out differently, we are realists. Our wishes are not viable realities that can instantaneously be ‘snapped’ into existence. Given that Florida’s unemployment system has not been fixed after four months, there is no reason to believe it’s going to be fixed at this point.
The longer the closure stretches on, the worse the economic fallout. Permanent layoffs have already begun throughout the Central Florida tourism sector. Last week, Universal Orlando laid off a number of employees across various departments. One Disney Springs restaurant operator announced it’s permanently laying off 143 workers. Cirque du Soleil has filed for bankruptcy protection and laid off 95% of its workforce.
While there have been no reports that Walt Disney World has begun its own layoffs, it’s naive to think the same won’t occur there. During the Great Recession, Disney laid off around 1,900 Parks & Resorts employees in a single round. During the previous dot-com bubble burst, Walt Disney World laid off 1,200 to 1,400 employees.
Moreover, Walt Disney World’s actions or inactions reverberate through Central Florida. A wide swath of area businesses are critically dependent upon the tourism Disney drives. Restaurants, hotels, smaller attractions, and more all directly rely on spillover business from Walt Disney World. Myriad others in Mousetown are indirectly tied to Disney.
Walt Disney World is a behemoth in Florida, and many industries rise and fall with Disney. There’s a simple reason all other area business leaders on the Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force were so emphatic about Walt Disney World reopening–their futures depend upon it.
Experts widely believe that Central Florida’s tourism industry will take years to fully recover, meaning that these are the opening salvos of widespread layoffs that are inevitable throughout the region. The extent of the industry-wide layoffs depends upon how quickly theme park operators can bounce back and convince the general public it’s safe to plan trips.
Walt Disney World reopening in July isn’t an effort to salvage the summer–it’s about the fall and holiday season. Save for DVC members, Annual Passholders, and diehard fans with existing trips, what’s left of the summer is already a lost cause. No matter when the parks reopen, it’s going to take several months to ramp up operations and even start to return to a semblance of normal and attract tourists back. The greater the delay, the deeper and longer-lasting the wounds.
Ultimately, even this just paints a partial picture. There are no doubt countless other factors and variables, both for and against reopening. And to be abundantly clear, we truly don’t know where we come down on this question. It’s tempting to offer simple solutions to complicated problems, but we’d again caution against that. Frankly, I’m quite thankful to not be one of the Disney or local leaders tasked with the unenviable decisions in front of them. It’s a veritable buffet of least-bad choices. Even equipped with better knowledge, there’s no way of knowing today what unintended consequences will result from any decision.
Finally, we’ll reiterate what we said at the end of “Our Surreal Stay at Walt Disney World” post. While a lot of this likely reads as being pro-reopening, we still would err on the side of not traveling to Florida for vacation right now. (To that point, we are not traveling anywhere.) Even with risk mitigation efforts in the parks & resorts, the fact remains that cases are spiking. Flying to Florida and taking a weeklong Walt Disney World vacation right now is not no-risk or even low-risk. We’d also be incredibly apprehensive about planning a trip for the fall. If you’re an out of state tourist, you can play it safe and take a wait and see view to see how things play out. Such a tentative approach is arguably not as practical for Walt Disney World’s decision-makers when considering the long-term and holistic health of Central Florida.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
What do you think–is it too early to reopen, the appropriate time, or do you likewise not feel comfortable offering a definitive answer? Are there additional major factors we’ve failed to consider? Agree or disagree with our assessment? We anticipate this being a controversial topic, but please keep the comments civil. A variety of viewpoints are welcomed here, and comments will not be deleted for their perspective alone. However, we will not tolerate insults, arguing, conspiracy theories, or politically-charged comments. Don’t ruin a 95% fine comment with an unnecessary cheap shot—that 5% will get it deleted. Additionally, please do not incessantly harp on the same point across multiple comments. Respectfully share your opinion and move along.
Thank you for this balanced and thoughtful article. I completely agree with you. I’m so weary of the “if you don’t like it don’t go” argument versus the “WDW should do the right thing to protect people and not open” argument. It’s just not that simple. Our country is already so divided right now; can’t we just not all have an opinion with zero nuance on this one thing? A little empathy and understanding would be awesome. I want to buy the world a darn Coke.
ough call. The “bar” has definitely switched to positive tests which is something we don’t do for any other viruses as far as epidemic status. For example, between 60-100M people are estimated to catch influenza annually in the US. So I appreciate the stat you provided on fatalities. Been watching that a while nationally it’s flat. Also appreciate your dive into how it is spread as a factor — a lot of people are making false conclusions on that as well. Thus, the tough call aspect — if Disney World requires an environment where everyone wears a mask and/or add a face shield to that indoor employees should be safe enough. But then again, I’m not a Disney World employee. So again — tough call.
Very reasonable and thorough analysis. I’m attending soon after the reopening (if it goes forward) and have gone back and forth about it.
It seems to me that more people are getting it from close personal contact from friends, etc rather than arms length public masked interactions. For example, grocery stores are very busy but I haven’t heard of outbreaks connected to them.
I plan to wear a kn-95 mask which theoretically should protect me.
I honestly wonder why the country hasn’t decided to issue a medical grade mask to everyone so we could go about our business. Surely after all this time we could have ramped up enough production.
One of the top stories in today’s Orlando Sentinel is that 30 Publix stores have reports of infected employees. Walmart and Winn Fixie won’t release numbers as they are not required too. Locations of all the stores are given in the article.
2 employees at a Walmart in Chicago area died after being infected and the families are suing wal-mart for wrongful deaths because they made employees come in to work among other reasons. It is happening, you just aren’t hearing about it.
At my grocery store chain in another state there have been several sick employees that have been sent home for 14 days. It is happening. Chat up your store employees or do a little listening on your next trip to the store. My butcher told me he is down 3 employees in the meat department alone..,
Ps I applaud Publix for being transparent and listing the store locations. Several are near Disney. When this whole thing started, I started paying attention to the companies that didn’t have sick leave for their employees and stopped shopping there/eating there. If an employee doesn’t get sick leave they are definitely going to come in sick or they will lose their job. We don’t have Publix where I live. But there were a LOT of big name chains and restaurants that didn’t give sick leave. It was eye opening! And it is happening in all cities whether you hear about it or not. In March there was an article on 40+ TSA agents who had to go on 14 days quarantine from San Jose airport because like 12 agents were positive from 1 evening shift. And you know TSA touches all your stuff when you travel, and the bins etc.
And these are just the stories that do make it in to the media.
I really feel with and agree with your “we truly do not know” sentiment.
The constant barrage of numbers reminds me of the saying made famous by Mark Twain:
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
While the number of infected increases, and is a definite matter of concern. it is not the most crucial number. Too often I’ve seen reports on spreads…but then it turns out that the individuals in question are asymptomatic.
The key numbers to watch here are 1) Hospitalizations; 2) The number on ventilators; and 3) The number of people dying.
The problem is how much of a lag there’ll be. For example, here in Louisiana, ventilator use is up to 91, the highest since May 28th. Not good. But the high point was April 2nd when there were 507 on ventilators. Suddenly 91 doesn’t look so bad in comparison.
But, lag. What are we going to be seeing 2 weeks from now? That’s going to be the big test.
We have to protect the elderly and those at risk. There are those younger who can have a rough time of it, and die, without underlying health issues, but based on what we know, that number, while tragic, is very small. My own choice here is to open up. I’ve lost an elderly aunt to this and my brother-in-law came down with it, but didn’t need hospitalization. It’s not a matter of opening the economy or killing granny; it’s a matter of who else is going to die if we don’t open the economy. Lives are being destroyed with the economy shutdown and suicide rates have gone up.
But we have to watch this closely. Today’s answer might not be the same 10 days from now.
Great post on the metrics that matter…If we reported the number of influenza cases constantly,, even with vaccines, people would be terrified…there is no one answer for everywhere…places where Human densities are higher need More protective measures. It isn’t fair but it is true…fingers crossed that we all keep our sanity and learn how to evaluate the situation and keep ourselves safe.
Many cast members are leaving Disney and returning to their home states. They do not want to return to work at Disney. It doesn’t mean they don’t need the money, or that they’re rolling in dough while collecting federal and state unemployment. Many still haven’t been able to to successfully file for UI online. It’s that they don’t think Disney has their best interests at heart. I know of two cast members in particular who were ready to begin training when everything shut down. Having incurred a large expense to move to Florida from their home state, they now have no guarantee they will still have a job with Disney.
I booked a trip for end of April, 2021, and am not at all certain I’ll be going. Pretty sure I’m canceling my November trip. If Disney doesn’t reopen, people will again have their trips canceled. Major disappointment, but it was always a possibility. Like it or not, that may be exactly what Florida needs to make their numbers go down. I understand Florida relies heavily on tourism, but I believe you can recover from economic loss, but you can’t put a price on human lives.
Not being ” big mask weares ” is the problem. I live in Masachisetts and our numbers have been going down every week. We are mandated to wear masks in public, it’s not an option! And it’s working! We start phase three on Monday and I hope the numbers stay low. I just think if EVERYONE did the same thing at the same time everyone could have had low numbers by now. If people walk around with no mask, people will be infected. I know it’s not 100% effective but with masks and social distancing it’s better than nothing, and it’s working here so far.
In case you haven’t been keeping up on developments, the latest mutation appears to be MORE contagious than earlier strains.
“we truly do not know. We’re humble enough to admit that, and would likewise suggest the same is true for you.“
THANK YOU for that. Every passing day we learn something new about this virus. What we think we know today is completely different than what we though we knew three months ago. Remember when masks “didn’t matter”? Or when animals “couldn’t get it”? There are now even suggestions that the mass gatherings at BLM protests have done nothing to further the spread.
For anyone to suggest they know what will happen if Disney re-opens is in itself a display of foolishness and shortsightedness. And nothing more than 100% speculation.
Well said.
Despite Tom’s advice, my family will be driving down from Ohio in two weeks. For 1.5 years we had been planning a Disney Cruise for May 2020, when that got cancelled we decided to book a Disney World trip for July – this was before the parks had an opening date. We’re not big mask wearers in Ohio, but while in Florida we’ll be respectful of every cast member and guest and follow every rule to a “T”. We are in a position where we’re not hurting for money, and I look forward to handing out mega tips whenever possible to help out those whose finances have suffered. No society in the history of humans has been able to survive by hunkering down scared, not doing anything for long stretches of time. No one in my family is over 35, the risk to us is very low. Based on actual observed data, and not wild projections, my family is more likely to die on the drive down than we are from COVID. I’m not understanding why younger, healthy people are afraid of the virus and act like catching it is a death sentence. For healthy people under 60, the vast majority who catch the virus don’t have any symptoms and never even know they had it – they feel fewer negative effects than if they caught the common cold!
The risk is not to yourself but to others. With no countermeasures , Coronavirus has an R-not of around 3-4, meaning on average an infected person infects 3-4 others, so if everyone keeps getting infected it eventually spreads to the vulnerable and elderly. This has been discussed as nauseam in the news .
This is why everyone is encouraged to get a flu vaccine even if you are young, to stop the spread not necessarily to eliminate the minute risk of death in a young person.
I am from NYC and believe me what you say here must have been written for you from someone who permanently lives in Fantasyland.
Atta boy Dan! This fellow buckeye couldn’t agree more!! O-H
As an Occupational Medicine Physician and a medical director for Public Health, with infectious disease being my sub-specialty, I have treated over one hundred correctional facility officers. In that group, I have over 15 people under 30 who 3 months out of infection, are still struggling with chest pain, shortness of breath, waves of dizziness, fatigue, and headaches. Don’t believe that those under 60 are unlikely to have long term consequences. 3 months out these people under 30 still have ground-glass opacities in their lungs, indicating that they have a high chance of developing pulmonary fibrosis from COVID-19, and that will likely remain with them the rest of their lives. It has changed a 21-year-old marathon runner to a man who is fatigued by golfing 9 holes.
I am not going back to Disney World until every single coronavirus restriction is removed from the entire society, and life is back to normal. That’ll take years. Until then, I don’t care if Disney World opens or close.
From Disney’s point of view, they should just open the parks and ignore all the whiners. Disney isn’t making anybody come to the park, those who don’t like covid can just stay home, like me. Those who want to take the risk and go should be allowed to give Disney money and Disney should be allowed to take it. Otherwise, the cases can surge, then slow, then surge again in a second or third wave. How many times is Disney going to close? And how long can Disney survive doing that?
May,
you are 100% wrong.
I do care if people go to parks, it does affect me.
You will have all these people from all over the country gathering and infecting one another and then bringing the virus back to their local states and cities.
Honestly, my life and the life of all humans is a little more important than a theme park. I don;t care if Disney has to shut down the parks permanently if it means people live.
Kevin, the only way other people going to the parks effects you is if you let it. If you work from home and have your groceries delivered to your home then there is literally no way for you to catch the virus from them. I suspect what you really mean is that you want to be able to go out and do the things you want to do, but others shouldn’t go to the parks like they want to.
Generally I agree with your sentiments. However, the limiting factor in this situation is the cast members. It would seem like this could be an opportune time to pay a premium for workers who are either not worried, or who understand their lack of risk from the virus, and care more about working than fear.
A short story..
When I was a police officer my wife asked me one day if I felt safe doing my job. I told her that I understood that any interaction I have could be my last, so the fear of the threat of death is very real. But I said that rationally it didn’t make sense to be afraid because when you compare the actual numbers of how many police officers there have been in my city against the number of officers who have been killed, it doesn’t make logical sense to be afraid. I told her I did feel safe because it would be irrational, based on the numbers to not.
Right on Buckeye. Anyone who truly wants to hunker down, avoid people and wait this thing out is free to so, assuming you can work from home or have the possibility of low-risk interactions within your job (or are just willing to tank your own economic well-being). In a free country, that choice should not be pushed onto others, especially when it will result in putting many out of their homes and small businesses they put their life’s work into. Big businesses may be able to hold out a bit more but all have a breaking point in addition to the many jobs that orbit around them.
Open Disneyworld and let people choose for themselves if it’s worth the risk. We need to continue with living. This virus is here and isn’t going away cause we stay in the house. People who don’t want to take the risk should stay home. Those willing to help develop herd immunity can press on. Hopefully a vaccine will be here soon. Wearing masks is really good and easy to do.
Sigh…..
Here is the difference, if people want to “take the risk” they aren’t only taking the risk for themselves, they are taking the risk for every person that they come across, not just in Disney but back in their home state.
WHY DO PEOPLE NOT GET THIS????????
@Greta – you take a risk every time you get into a car, or eat at McDonald’s or sit near someone who smokes. You take a risk every time you step outside. So you take friends or family along in a car? You are putting their lives at risk if you make a mistake in driving or err in judgment. What happens if someone is drunk or distracted driving? That’s a risk you take every day, and have a better chance of dying in a car accident than you do from covid. Its just that those risks, like eating too much from McDonald’s or getting into a car has been normalized. Shall we shut down highways and fast food joints? Stop selling cigarettes and alcohol? I know a few people who have ruined lives because they are alcoholics, yet the liquor stores remained open all this time.
Greta, think about this, the only way an infected person can infect “the people they come across” is if “the people they come across” choose not to quarantine. If folks who are scared would work from home and have their groceries delivered there is literally no way for them to be infected by those who went to the parks. People who make statements like you did are really saying that THEY should be able to go out and do what they want to do, but others should not be allowed to go to the parks like they want to.
Buckeye Dan, you realize that not everyone can “choose to work from home” right? You get what an extraordinarily privileged and tone deaf statement that is, right? Doctors, nurses, police officers, firefighters, factory workers, car technicians, construction workers, most teachers, truck drivers, grocery workers, almost all service workers–-these people cannot “choose to work from home.” Who do you think is delivering your groceries? Or do you not even care?
The ‘more likely to die in an auto accident’ nonsense just needs to go away. You want source info here you go…https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/20/859829779/as-states-locked-down-in-march-motor-vehicle-fatality-rate-spiked-by-14
There were 1.2 deaths for every 100,000,000 miles driven in March this year. According to the IIHS 36,560 auto deaths in 2018…again source material…
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics
This argument about driving versus covid is like comparing apples to tractor trailers.
Greta, what people like you don’t get is that when you criticize those willing to “take a risk” you become a hypocrite. You and everyone advocating staying home or closing down still expect people to go to work to keep your electricity, internet and gas working. Keep you comfy and safe. You expect truckers to drive all over the country delivering groceries to stores filled with people and employees “at risk”. The pharmacy, post office and bank stay open and staffed for your convenience. I bet you even have had a pizza or fast food since this hysteria started, thus putting them at risk. So yes, those advocates who want more businesses to close and collapse, you’re hypocrites.
“There’s also the reality that Universal Orlando and other Central Florida theme and amusement parks have been open for roughly one month, and we’ve yet to see any outbreaks traced to these parks.” —-Well I will give you one example. My friend has been wearing a mask, social distancing, hand washing etc. He and his wife and grandson went to Universal July 22-23. Stayed at the on site hotel July 21-morning of 24th. He is in the hospital now and being put on a ventilator as we speak. 55 years old and no underlying health conditions. To say there aren’t any cases coming out of the opened Theme Parks is ridiculous. I’d wager more on them not being reported. Right now I have 3 park reservations (Local AP holder) and I have been to Disney Springs a few times. Just don’t know if that is smart anymore. This is the 5th person who is close to me (know plenty thru friends and family who have been sick, even died) that has gotten COVID. The 2nd who has been hospitalized because of it. The 1st to be on a ventilator. To say I am upset is an understatement.
Yeah, I came to say the same thing. Personally, we’re avoiding parks. I personally also know several people who visited Universal and are sick now, who practiced extensive social distancing and handwashing before going out to Universal because they felt the safety measures seemed an adequate way to get out of lockdown. Besides, it would be advantageous to the tourism industry to keep cases in the tourism sector on the down low, because they want to regain the tourist dollars. They’re not going to be up front about case numbers if it makes them look bad.
Let’s not forget Disney Springs restaurant staff are already getting sick. Restaurants remain highly unsafe environments and Disney is full of them.
We
Cancelled two planned Disney vacations in November. I understand the economics of closed down and the frustrations of Floridians not getting government assistance. But why would I jeopardize my health and my families to enter an expensive park with so many restrictions? I have family members MDs, PAs andRNs risk their lives on the front lines and witness the heartache of victims in the the ICUs. Interestingly a young person returned to NY and spread it to 18 fellow friends who ignored NY restrictions and now are refusing to cooperate with tracers. Cuomo led us out of a terrible situation and I for one will not only contribute to a new surge as the states who opened early are now in a mess. It is a double edge sword safety vs economics. Disney is trying to do the right thing but I will not be going back soon.
Glad to hear others are taking the precautions needed to keep others safe. My family and I planned a February 2021 Disney world trip; it was going to be a huge hurrah as my husband finishes his fellowship. Coronavirus came and by April we knew we’d be canceling. Yeah we’re 30 and healthy, and I’ve been quarantining since mid March (husband does all the grocery shopping), but heaven forbid my husband catch COVID19 from a positive patient he scopes, because he does have to, and then pass it all over the parks. I’m sick of the “let people take the risk if they want to” argument bc not everyone gets to work from home. Sucks we have to cancel a trip we were going all out on and planning for a year, but if that means that we spared other people’s lives then it’s worth it.
Lets be realistic. Covid-19 is a coronavirus. It’s the same type of virus as the common cold. Do we have a vaccine for the common cold?
Covid-19 is considered SARS-COV-2.
SARS-COV-1 was in 2003. We still don’t have a vaccine for that.
So the question is this. Are you will to stay in your house for the next decade or more because we don’t have a vaccine?
The original idea was to slow the spread of the virus by locking everyone down. We built hospitals in NYC and brought in boats. Both of those weren’t even used. The hospitalization and fatality rates continue to go down because testing has sky rocketed. Essentially what you are seeing is an increase in infections because of more testing, yet the hospitalizations and fatalities are steady. We can show 1,000,000 new cases tomorrow, but what does it matter if the hospitalization numbers stay at 300?
If the infections keep going up, hospitalizations will go up. They are correlated numbers. And once the infection gets to the large elderly population of Florida, then it’s done. But there is a window here in summer before that happens, in my opinion.
That’s not how it works. Hospitalization and fatality rates are always higher at the beginning before testing. As testing happens numbers go down.
This can be easily proven be looking at the country which had a 10% fatality rate when this first started and is not somewhere between 0.04% and 0.26%.
It’s because more testing happened. I’m from NJ just outside NYC. When they said we had 5,000 new cases in a day, it was probably 50,000. The reason it was only 5,000 was because of less testing and most people not even being sick which meant they didn’t even bother to get tested.
The amount of positives means very little because most of society doesn’t even get sick. This isn’t the Spanish Flu.
Hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. It will take 2-4 weeks to see an uptick based on the current positive tests. As for a vaccine I am also not confident but I wouldn’t compare it to the 2003 strain. I believe that strain was much more deadly and quicker to show symptoms so it spread much slower and petered out. I believe they ceased developing that vaccine because it was no longer need as with the zika vaccine Fauci mentioned in his congressional testimony.
While it is very true that similar case counts in March are not equivalent to similar case counts in July, it is also true that the recent surge is due to increased spread. We need to get better as a society at holding nuanced thoughts in our head at the same time. Florida is not the next New York City based on these numbers but it is also experiencing troubling growth that needs to be aggressively mitigated. Not a full stay at home order but also closing the bars isn’t enough. What we need are all businesses taking the measures that Disney is taking. Disney staying closed won’t do it. It already is closed. The rest of society needs to start taking the same precautions as Disney/Universal.
It’s not the “rate” it’s the absolute number that matters. Hospitals have an absolute number of beds. The hospitalization rate is low for the younger population but it is not zero, and it is way higher for Covid than normal flu.
The infected number goes high enough, the hospitals will get full even if the hospitalization rate is fairly low. And it will get full even faster when the elderly population gets hit, which is probably a near certainty if that many people are walking around infected.
Matt it is NOT THE COMMON COLD. Please stop spreading this kind of dangerous misinformation. Has the world ever completely shut down for the common cold? What an absurd analogy. It’s crucial that you listen to scientists and respected public health officials.
@ Cate
No one said it was the common cold. I said Covid is in the same family as the common cold. We have no vaccine for ANY of the previous coronaviruses.
We will have something worse than the great depression if we sit around waiting for a vaccine that may never come.
By the way, I’m an adult and can make my own decisions. I’m not going to shut down my life for something that has a fatality rate (and falling) around the typical flu. I understand risks and don’t need anyone telling me how to live my life.
SARS CoV-1 was not considered very transmissible until day 5 of symptoms. By then, the person was identified and isolated, which is why with less than 10000 worldwide cases but mortality greater than 30%, there was not a pandemic as there is now. With this coronavirus, 40%+ cases are transmitted from asymptomatic people with SARS-CoV 2; names are that only. They do not define the transmissibility, the mortality, or the disease characteristics. In other words, in this case a rose is not a rose merely because of nomenclature.
Tom,
Although I have no plans to visit WDW any time soon, I want to compliment you on your journalistic integrity and your attention to detail. Your dedication is appreciated, now more than ever.
For all those saying they should stay closed, No One is answering the question “until when?” It’s easy to stay closed but what metric would you need to see to feel comfortable about reopening. A vaccine is a year away, Disney will go bankrupt by then. And no, they are not too big to fail. Look at Lehman Bro’s. They shut down, we all did. It was the right thing to do back then. Now we must reopen. Masks, distance, sanitizing of course, but we must learn how to live with this virus.
Tiffany says….
“They shut down, we all did. It was the right thing to do back then. Now we must reopen.”
So you really think it’s a good idea to open in the #1 hot spot of where the virus is spreading. honestly, sometimes I think people have no brains.
A vaccine is at least a year away. The quickest vaccine ever developed was measles and that was 4 years. Not to mention the lack of ling term effects testing that will need to be forgone in order for it to be rolled.out when developed.
I am personally not willing to put my life on hold any longer. I’ve already lost months of it, I’ve lost income that I can never get back. It will take a long time to recover from the debt I’ve gone into because I’ve lost my job due to covid and have had to pay my mortgage and buy groceries. We didn’t get sick but now face losing our home. Would have rather gotten sick, there is a 99.87% recovery rate. And maybe we actually did get sick and all of this is for nothing , 80% have mild or no symptoms at all.
I’m done with this. I’ve lost my job, I’m losing my house and my mental health over something that most people won’t even notice they have.
Am I hearing you…are you saying they should reopen to save the investors?? I hope that was a joke.
I keep seeing people like Nat who don’t understand how to calculate a recovery (or death rate). Here in Clark County, our death rate is 4.1%. 432 people died out of 10,458 cases with dispositions with the other 10,025 cases surviving. Our total cases are 16,181 so people keep using that as the denominator, but the 5,732 people who currently have the virus could either die, or hopefully get better. You can’t say those people didn’t die of the virus, you can only say they haven’t died from it yet. (Also, anyone who says positives are only going up because tests are going up needs to understand what a rate is, because the positive test rates have doubled in Florida in the last 2 weeks and tripled here in Nevada.)
@ Frank
How many of those people are under 65 and healthy? How about under 60?
I think it’s time we stop scaring everyone with statistics that don’t mean much without additional data. We have really good data coming out of states regarding ages and deaths. For example, 84% of deaths in California are 60 years or older. 94% if you are 50 or over. Most of those had preexisting conditions.
If you’re under 50 in California, you have a case fatality rate of 0.26%, most of which had preexisting conditions. Since roughly 75% of the people show no signs, not even a sniffle or have no been tested, we can conservatively reduce that 0.26% by half to 0.13%. The typical flu is 0.10%. Things start to get dicey as you get older because you develop preexisting conditions.
I’m a in favor of staying in if you are over 70 and/or you are over 45 with preexisting conditions.
Personally, if I were Disney I would stop anyone 60 and above from coming to the park.
I also have really mixed feelings about our upcoming trip. I will be watching the first-couple reports closely to see if (1) Chapek delivers on his (implied) promise of low low crowds (we’re all supposed to be so “lucky”–remember?); and (2) Disney is truly enforcing the mask requirement (and wearing it around your neck does NOT count).
I think that if Disney really does crack down on people who try to skirt the rules, and if attendance really is dramatically pared down, it could be relatively safe. I would also like to see Disney offer refunds to people who are turned away for failing temperature checks to discourage people from showing up after taking some ibprofen to hide a fever.
Disney has done very well on mask enforcement at Disney springs. However, there are crowds there and distancing is not doable really. Plus, as you said, taking some meds prior to your visit is easy. I spent thousands of dollars on a trip and need to cancel OR I can take a little pill and go…. Yeah.
Nodding my head while reading your comment about Disney refunding for people who fail the temperature check. I suspect that many people who spend thousands of dollars to get to the parks only to developed a fever would be loathe to spend days self quarantined in their hotel rooms
I was out there the entire first week. I figured it would be the safest time to go, I wanted to experience and document the reopening of the resorts along with using some DVC points. I have another reservation in December. The time spent there was surreal and amazing. I live here in Florida. We broke another record for new cases yesterday at 10k. As much as I love Disney, I just don’t see how they can open up the parks now that our numbers are rising as they are. It’s not just from new testing. In my county, the number of hospitalizations and death are rising. We have 10 rather large hospitals with only 5 ICU beds remaining. Our Governor would NOT have shut down bars and pull back even ONE inch if we didn’t have a problem here. IMHO public safety has to come first. Just my 2 cents and I respect everyone’s opinion.
Open Walt Disney World !
Social distance.
Wear masks.
Or just DO NOT go if you have concerns.
DO NOT work there if you have concerns.
But by all means open it.
Why risk the health of cast members the number of cases in Florida are going up not down why is that so hard for people to understand?
At this rate, DW has a window to open, but it will eventually close again. Even if only younger people get infected, there will be enough hospitalizations to overrun the hospitals. And if the infection reaches the LARGE elderly population of Florida, which is a near certainty, it will cause the hospitals to be overrun much sooner.
Once the hospitals are full, the governor will likely close things down. YouTube and Twitter videos of people dying in hospital parking lots and ER waiting rooms is likely not something he is going to be OK with for a sustained period of time.
So we can debate it on here, but it isn’t really in any of our hands.
@ D P
You say eventually there will be more hospitalizations that overrun hospitals. The problem with that statement is that it’s not happening. In fact, hospitalization numbers have stayed flat while infection rates have gone up.
Florida didn’t report Coronavirus hospitalizations separately until now, the news is saying 245 new Coronavirus hospitalizations over the past 24 hours. It won’t be overnight, it will take a couple months. It took NYC hospitals ~6-8 weeks to get full and that was in the winter in a much denser city.
If hospitals delay elective procedures and go 100% Covid, then that is the canary in the coal mine.
But I assure you, the numbers are correlated. More infections, means more hospitalizations. And it is just a matter of time before the elderly populations get hit.
@ D P
NYC and it’s area hospitals were never full with Covid patients. Not even close. Many hospitals had very few Covid patients. There are hospitals that are closing down.
It’s easy to figure out. The Javis Center, the ship, the newly built hospitals, and tens of thousands of hotel rooms at hospitals were never used.
@ Matt
Some hospitals did get full, my friend’s dad died in an ER waiting room on a gurney alone. And those were auxiliary hospital beds that did not get filled because all of NYC shut down. Florida is not shutting down.
It will be very interesting to see if this “experiment” of a super-controlled environment involving near-universal mask wearing and distancing will result in the virus not spreading. I hope they continue with their plan to reopen, so that we can learn from it…Thank you volunteers!! I expect good results. By the way, the mask goes over your mouth AND nose.
Countries such as Israel have defeated the Virus by protecting the elderly/infirmed and allowing the general population to acquire heard immunity. This has worked everywhere it is tried. Governor DeSanits has protected his at risk population. This virus will go on for a longer time if people are not exposed similar to the Flu Chicken Pox etc.
I think most people think they are chin warmers.
In regards to herd immunity there is no evidence that will happen. The same 4 coronaviruses give people colds every year. The immune response fades within a few months.
Steve, Israel is nowhere near herd immunity, and neither is Central Florida.
As you can see everyone has their own perspective on covid-19. Its just a virus, it was caused by tourists coming here. It’s a PANDEMIC. You can rationalize it all you want but that doesn’t change it. It is truly dangerous enough just getting groceries and keeping doctor visits. All these people that know better than the WHO,(also open to rationalization), are what’s prolonging this from at least calming down. No I do not think Disneyworld should open yet, not until people take this seriously. Sadly the economy is taking a hit and as much as this is a hardship for many there are too many that don’t care.
The WHO has been wrong a dozen times since this started.
By the way, the word Pandemic just means it’s in multiple countries. Here are some pandemics since 2000.
Swine Fly (2010)
Ebola (2014)
MERS (still going on)
Sars-Covid-1 (2003)
Sars-Covis-2 (Current)
No pun intended……remain closed……common sense….plain n simple….putting lives at risk….we had a trip planned….we cancelled not just because of the risks of covid but we were mislead regarding how Disney accommodates to Children/Adults on the Spectrum….
I don’t know it’s to early to open the Disney look how many people have lost their jobs. if people would just mask up they will be fine . if you keep Disney world closed your only hurting the economy and you have no revenue to support or keep it open. if people just learn to follow the cdc rules and wear their facemasks it will get better and may be if people would start wearing a mask more the number of cases would go down.