Sharp Slowdown for Shoulder Season 2023 at Disney World
With the peak of spring break in the rearview mirror and Summer 2023 still another month-plus away, we’re now entering “Shoulder Season” at Walt Disney World. This crowd report shares wait times data, which dates ended up being the worst of the season, thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with attendance levels in May and June 2023, and more.
We’ll start by taking a look back at the last month-plus of spring break season at Walt Disney World. Specifically, we’ll look at what our Spring Break 2023 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World got right and wrong with its predictions, and just how bad Easter ended up being.
For those who haven’t been following along closely, we predicted that the week of spring break for Osceola and Orange County school districts in mid-March would be the worst week, and it ended up being not quite as terrible as anticipated. To be sure, it was very busy–but it won’t go down as one of the top 10 weeks of the year by crowd level.
One of the reasons that the week we predicted to be the worst of spring break wasn’t as bad as expected was because of the weekend drop-off. During the middle of the week, crowd levels were 10/10 and wait times were 54-60 minutes on average. Over the weekend, wait times bottomed out at 31-34 minutes on average, for 3/10 and 2/10 crowd levels.
Once that week ended up being less crowded than anticipated, we revised our spring break forecast back in March to predict that the week leading up to Easter would easily surpass Central Florida’s spring break as the #1 worst week of Spring Break 2023. Hardly a bold prediction at that point, as those were the only weeks really in the running, and once Central Florida’s spring break underperformed, Easter became the odds-on favorite…unless it somehow, similarly underperformed.
As always, what’s covered in these “crowd” reports is actually posted wait time data that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for tracking and comparing various days, weeks, months, and years. A lot can be gleaned from posted wait times, but it’s not necessarily conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds. However, wait times are not the same as “feels like” crowds or congestion.
In short, wait times are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s raw attendance or crowds–which have increased by several million people over the course of the last decade-plus. With that out of the way, let’s dig into the data and look at Walt Disney World wait times. As always, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll start with the monthly numbers for Walt Disney World as a whole.
With an average wait time of 47 minutes, April 2023 is edging out all other months as the busiest ever (by 1 minute) at Walt Disney World. For those who are curious, this year is also the busiest ever (also by 1 minute). So far, at least.
However, the story changes when zooming in and looking at the weekly numbers.
Here, it becomes clear that Easter week was not just the busiest of spring break season (by +6 minutes as compared to Central Florida spring break, which is actually a lot), but also tied for the busiest week of 2023, with the beginning of the year (Christmas/NYE school breaks).
I’m guessing that is not what is catching your eye, though…
Zooming in more, we come to the resort-wide daily numbers for Walt Disney World.
This shows a drop-off post-Easter, but more significantly, it shows a downright plummet starting on Saturday. Sunday and today (so far) are the slowest days of 2023 (so far) at Walt Disney World. In fact, we have to go back to last August before we find two consecutive days with wait times this low.
At Magic Kingdom, the numbers aren’t quite as bad–there have been slower days this year–but the last 3 days have still been 1/10 or 2/10 crowd levels with wait times about half of what they were during the peak of spring break.
Now in fairness, Florida has been experiencing some severe weather over the last several days. Without question, these storms have impacted turnout at Walt Disney World among locals. However, weather does not move the needle that much unless it’s closing the parks. Tourists who already paid for their tickets, hotels, and airfare visit regardless. The weather-related dimension is, at best, a contributing factor that accounts for one or two bars on the crowd level.
EPCOT is the park most impacted by turnout among locals, and unsurprisingly, it’s seeing its lowest levels of the year.
Not really as shocking looking at this chart, though, as EPCOT has had plenty of slow days thus far in 2023. Lots of high highs and low lows.
At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. The last two days have been the slowest at DHS since October 2021.
That’s right, 2021. When Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary kicked off and was centered around Magic Kingdom and EPCOT, and also the COVID comeback was cancelling travel plans. It’s exceedingly rare when DHS doesn’t have a single attraction–not even Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance or Slinky Dog Dash–average a wait time of over an hour. And yet, that’s exactly what has happened here.
Although not nearly as “bad” as DHS, Animal Kingdom also saw its slowest day of 2023 and its least-busy day since September of last year. As we often point out, Animal Kingdom is the park of the biggest extremes. Its peak of 80 minutes is almost 4 times the average wait today.
With that said, DAK is always the easiest park from a strategy perspective–just arrive early or late. I was able to do every single ride in the park even on a busy day by 10:30 am. The biggest difference right now is that you could do every ride in the span of a couple hours in the middle of the day, too!
As covered in Genie+ Price Plummets Post-Peak of Spring Break at Walt Disney World, prices dropped by $10 overnight on Saturday. The cost fell by another $5 on Sunday to $20 per person, where it stands today.
The point of our commentary in that (which seems to have been missed by many on social media who shouted about demand), was that prices stayed at $35 for too long and the drop was too little. At least, when compared to historical prices at various crowd levels. Hopefully, that explanation makes more sense with the side-by-side context of wait times over the last few days.
It’ll be interesting to see whether there’s simply lag in getting Genie+ prices back to $15, or if $20 is the new minimum. It probably goes without saying, but the last two days should have been $15 dollar ones based on historical data. What’s possible is that Walt Disney World isn’t seeing a material difference in sales between the price points, and will stick with $20 as a result. In which case, $35 is not the ceiling for prices.
And in Disney’s defense (but not really), Genie+ is a waste of money at either $15 or $20 on a day like today with the possible exception of maybe Magic Kingdom. Even then, that’s highly questionable. It’s even less necessary at Disney’s Hollywood Studios or Animal Kingdom. Genie+ would be downright counterproductive at EPCOT on a day like today, as the time saved by Lightning Lanes would be more than offset by the added walking time.
For those wondering how Walt Disney World’s wait times compare to Universal Orlando, the trend is about the same for the last couple weeks. In general, Universal has seen a more pronounced slowdown on off-peak dates than Walt Disney World this year.
Nevertheless, Orange County’s spring break in mid-March outperformed at Universal Orlando relative to Easter. That’s almost certainly attributable to the resident ticket deal not having blockout dates, meaning that more locals could choose Universal as a staycation option for their own spring break.
Looking forward, Walt Disney World is now out of the woods with the worst of spring break (technically, it’s not totally over–some straggler school districts have breaks this week, but few in the grand scheme of things and relative to the last month-plus). In fact, as covered in the most recent update to our 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars, there are very few ‘red flag’ dates after this week, aside from a few dates at Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
The good news is that between now and the start of summer season–so until mid-June 2023–it’s shoulder season. For those unfamiliar with the term, “shoulder season” is the period between two peak seasons. I guess that’s because the shoulders are below the “peak” of the body, or the head. In which case, perhaps we should start referring to September as butt-season? It has a certain understated stupidity to it.
Anyway, Walt Disney World’s attendance patterns are largely dictated by school breaks, as you are undoubtedly aware. As a result of this, far fewer guests in Disney’s core demo visit shortly after or before a major break. One major break just occurred, and another doesn’t start for another month-plus.
We see similar scenarios other times of year, but Walt Disney World has done a good job of filling the calendar with attendance-boosting events or otherwise attracting alternative audiences during those windows. The biggest exception to this is mid-August through late September and, to a much lesser extent, the month of May leading up to Memorial Day.
Unlike the early fall off-season, May 2023 is not an inherently undesirable time to visit Florida. While starting to warm, the weather is not something that actively discourages travelers. From that perspective, it’s not the same as storm or hurricane season. May 2023 also comes after shorter school breaks, versus the lengthy summer vacation that’ll lead up to August/September 2023.
However, May is similar in other ways. Walt Disney World’s big public event is EPCOT’s Flower & Garden Festival, and that’s old news by the time May 2023 rolls around. It’s also arguably less of a draw than the early end of Halloween season and EPCOT’s Food & Wine Festival in August and September.
Then there are the non-public events. Although shoulder season essentially starts now, it’s coming as the last runDisney race for the season concluded (the next one isn’t for another 6 months). It’s also coming as there are still a half-dozen (literally) cheer or dance competitions scheduled at the ESPN Wide World of Sports over the next few weeks, only one of which is in May 2023.
Conventions and group events are another factor, and there tend to be more of those in late April and May than in August or September. Again, it’s a more desirable time of year for all of these things, and Central Florida’s weather is the big factor.
As a general matter, these events have minimal impact on overall crowd levels. They might push a borderline 5/10 to 6/10, or something along those lines, but there simply are not enough attendees in aggregate to meaningfully impact wait times throughout all 4 parks.
However, individual perceptions can vary from this, sometimes significantly. If you’re staying at one of the same resorts as participants (typically Coronado or the All Stars, but I’ve heard of other locations) and get stuck waiting in line behind a large group at the bus stop, or your room is located next to them, you might have a dramatically different experience. Or if you find your family stuck in line behind big groups for multiple attractions, in the same Haunted Mansion Stretching Room, waiting in line to order at Cosmic Ray’s, etc. We speak from experience on all of this.
With all of this in mind, we have some forward-looking predictions for the remainder of this month, as well as May and June 2023. If historical precedent is any indication, this week will end up being the busiest of shoulder season. That’s honestly kind of hard to believe given the absurdly low wait times we’re seeing so far, but it has been true the last two years, and was also the case prior to 2020.
It’s supported by the reality that there are still some school districts out on spring break this week, and there are several simultaneous events scheduled for the ESPN Wide World of Sports. As a result, the smart bet would be that crowd levels will start showing signs of life later this week. But who knows!
In a normal year, crowd levels would drop further in the last week of April as spring break fully came to its conclusion.
Following that, the first week of May 2023 should be even lower. The second week of the month is typically when crowd levels bottom out, with wait times starting to rise again in the third week of May. However, there’s some variability to all of this in the historical data, and the first 3 weeks of May are close enough together that things like weather or attraction downtime are enough to move the needle. Generally speaking, all of these weeks are good, with low-to-moderate crowd levels on average. (On average, there’s a 1-2 minute difference in wait times those first 3 weeks. It’s almost statistically insignificant.)
It’s similar for the following week, which is the lead-up to Memorial Day weekend. Although this is the unofficial start of the summer season, Memorial Day typically is not among the worst holidays at Walt Disney World for crowds. It’s a lot like Labor Day, which is the unofficial end of summer.
Both milestones see higher crowd levels than the weeks adjacent to them, but they’re still not on par with holidays like Presidents’ Day, Columbus Day, or Veterans Day. Those holidays are arguably “lower profile” but end up being bigger attendance boosters.
Instead, summer vacation crowds typically build and decline gradually, with the peak usually occurring in July. This means that even early June 2023 should not see the worst of summer vacation crowd levels. In a normal year, June would be higher than May, but lower than July 2023.
With that said, Walt Disney World hasn’t experienced a “normal” summer in several years. Last year, the second week of June ended up being the peak, which was almost certainly the result of rising oil/gas prices. Before that, the resumption of normalcy followed by the COVID-comeback threw a monkey wrench into late summer crowds. While I certainly would not expect the latter scenario in Summer 2023, I’m already bracing myself for gas prices to be a big wildcard again this year.
Suffice to say, I’m much more confident in the crowd forecast through May 2023 than I am in picking the best & worst weeks in Summer 2023. (On a positive note, it seems more likely to me that crowds will surprise on the downside than on the upside. Meaning that if forecasts are off for Summer 2023, it’ll be because they overestimate wait times. My hunch is that this summer is going to be less-crowded than anticipated, but we shall see.)
Ultimately, a pretty interesting Walt Disney World crowd report and forecast, all things considered. Even though we knew this weekend would see a drop due to the conclusion of spring break, wait times have plummeted far more than expected. Weather is a contributing factor, but cannot conceivably account for all or even most of that.
It’s too early to draw any “sky is falling” conclusions from wait times in the last few days, but it certainly bodes well for the shoulder season at Walt Disney World. To that point, historical precedent strongly suggests that wait times and crowd levels will only continue dropping from here. Conversely, common sense tells us that cannot happen, as there’s only so much lower they can go.
On balance, our immediate expectation is that numbers bounce back later this week. Not to anywhere near their mid-March through Easter levels–those are definitely done. But rather, to more reasonable crowd levels for this time of year. Following that, it’s safe to assume shoulder season will play out in familiar fashion, with low-to-moderate crowds throughout May 2023.
However, there is a small part of us that wonders whether Walt Disney World wait times and crowd levels will stay lower for longer. Perhaps this is what the exhaustion of pent-up demand really looks like; maybe consumers are finally changing their spending habits; it’s possible rising prices on everything have finally done their damage. Any or all of this could result in more of a summer slump. We’ve heard unsubstantiated rumblings suggesting that might be the case over the months to come, but nothing to conclude that crowds will stay this low. We shall see–it’ll be interesting to watch!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Are you visiting Walt Disney World during shoulder season between spring break and Summer 2023? Have you visited in the past during the month of May? Were you in the parks over the weekend or this week so far? What did you think of the crowds? Any parks, times of day, or days of the week noticeably better or worse than the others? Did you find Saturday and Sunday to be better than the ‘heart’ of the week? If you’ve visited in past weeks following spring break, did you notice a big difference in crowd levels? Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We will by there the first two weeks of May. I am really hoping these crowd levels remain until then! We haven’t been in May since 2018 and I didn’t feel like the crowds were bad during that trip. One of the biggest benefits of homeschooling is being able to plan our trips around the busy times!
Saturday and Sunday Surcharges are Statistically Significant, Surely? (I’m enjoying the alliterative headlines; is Tom working his way through the alphabet or is what I’m seeing on the home page a coincidence?)
While I’ve been focused on how much more expensive resort rooms are on the weekends than during the week, most park guests aren’t actually staying on site. Tickets are clearly more representative of park visitors, and there we also see the higher prices on the weekends than during the week. Traditionally I’ve been on board with Tom’s suggestion that Disney raises prices just enough to be inelastic; enough to maximize profits but not enough to drive significant amounts of people away.
Clearly after the busiest Easter season ever WDW isn’t doing that overall, but guests do seem to be shifting to weekday visits rather than weekends. It’s most likely a combination of ticket prices, resort prices, and even dare I say the constant availability of the weekday-only Pixie Pass. At $400 a pass, it’s probably cheaper than most five day tickets for Florida guests wanting to visit during the week, and should definitely be cheaper than separate tickets for two visits. (That’s purely speculative on my part, though; I doubt Florida guests alone are enough to tip the needle to weekdays so it’s a combination of multiple factors.)
You joke (I think), but I actually have a work-in-progress article about weekends with a placeholder title, and I’m very tempted to steal yours. I am a sucker for a good (or even bad) alliteration.
Good analysis, and smart to include off-site accommodations and APs, but I think you actually need to ‘zoom out’ even further.
I guess this is good news, but I can understand it. Over the years, we’ve built up a group of friends that we often see at the various resorts. They were Disney lovers who knew all of the details and tricks. We tried to get them together for an impromptu reunion in late April this year. No dice. They all had other excuses and none were that serious. They could have made it if they still had the old magic in them. The place is really losing its hold on many of us.
We were in Epcot on Sat (15th), MK on Sunday and HS yesterday (17th). Happily, surprisingly shocked at how low crowds were. The only “must-do” we didn’t get to do is slinky-dog, but only because we were so spoiled by that point on how many walk-ons we did in the three days that we preferred to repeat other favs instead. It was awesome. Going to Universal today and tomorrow for the first time ever. Already printed out your 1 day itineraries for each park. Wish us luck!!
Lower crowds wouldn’t necessarily mean lower wait times. I would think at some point they reduce the staffing and ride trains/boats/etc to save wear and tear if the crowd level is low.
Wondering what the first week in June will be like? I heard that is the Gay Days week. Which I assume will be very popular. Thoughts on the wait times and crowds for this week???
It’s only the 1st-5th and generally only the feature park for that particular day has additional crowds as there are many other events happening in the Orlando area also. We will actually be there June 4-11 for just the end of it. If you google gay days orlando it lists which park is the featured park for the gay day celebration on which day.
I hope your prediction of less crowds in early May are correct. We have traditionally been a Christmas time Disney family. This is our first time back since before Covid and I wanted to try a time that was possibly a little less crowded. I got a lot of flack for choosing May. Looks like the family will be thanking me for the shorter wait times! Your posts help me plan and get excited for our trip. Thanks for the great info.
You’re welcome!
The one thing that concerns me is this line: “This is our first time back since before Covid and I wanted to try a time that was possibly a little less crowded.”
Walt Disney World is a very different place post-COVID, and wait times are up across the board as compared to 2018 or even 2019. So if that’s your frame of reference, there is a very strong chance that what you experience in May 2023 is going to feel crowded.
Just remember: it’s all relative. The crowds you experience will be much better than they were in early April of this year, even if they are worse than May 2018 (or whenever you last visited).
Butt-season is my fav so funny and true
Given the heat & humidity that time of year, it’s certainly swamp bottom season, at the very least!
You provide a beacon of light and hope in a somewhat complicated Disney world, helping us planners to navigate the complexities and weigh the options. We are so grateful for your expertise! I have taken your advice to heart and I’m looking forward to the second week of May where I’ll be fortunate enough to experience two resort stays (Wilderness Lodge and Animal Kingdom Lodge) for the first time. Early entry, extended evening hours and Genie+will help to make the vacation what we want it to be. The Disney experience is what you make of it. You need to be flexible and understanding of the dynamics surrounding you. To make this vacation special, we have many extras planned. Keys to the Kingdom Tour, Up Close with the Rhinos, Caring for Giants, Starlight Safari Tour and many ADR’s along with a 7 day hopper pass. There will be so many opportunities to view the Disney magic through close and careful lenses. I look forward to appreciating all of the detail. My husband and I will be celebrating our 46th wedding anniversary and can’t wait to spend this quality time together. Tom, your hard work is appreciate and recognized. You and Sarah are simply delightful as well as resourceful. Your hard work is appreciate and recognized. Thank you kindly.
“The Disney experience is what you make of it. You need to be flexible and understanding of the dynamics surrounding you.”
100% agree with this, and it’s such a good mantra for Walt Disney World–and life in general.
Happy anniversary to you and your husband; that’s quite a commendable accomplishment. It sounds like you’re going to have a great trip–those are some fun tours you’ve got scheduled! 🙂
I’m doing a solo birthday trip the 2nd week of May. I haven’t been in the month of May since 2019, which was also the last time I was there for Flower & Garden. I’m excited to see the new topiaries!
I’m hoping to see the park hours for the week extended soon and I’m hoping to see a 7:30 early entry on my Animal Kingdom day. Each of the last 2 times I’ve been to WDW, AK had 7:30 early entry on Monday and it was great.
I wouldn’t bank on an hours extension for DAK if these crowd levels keep up, but the plus side is that you won’t need it. Have fun!
Heading down with with my daughter next Thursday the 27th for a Magic Kingdom and Epcot day. Any idea how the crowds might be?
thanks angia
I can attest to low crowds this weekend. We arrived at Hollywood Studios at 7:30pm on Sunday night, and managed to do Tower of Terror, Rise of the Resistance, Smuggler’s Run, Toy Story Mania and Runaway Railway by 9:00pm. All were literally a walk-on. Days like this are so rare anymore.
We have a tripped plan the first full week of June. We’ve done trips the first part of May and prefer that time a year, but with 2 kids in school we now have to go in June. Hoping for the best. Haven’t been since they added Genie+.
This weekend in Kissimmee I was at a training and social event for “extreme decorators”, the people who use hobbyist-oriented lighting equipment to create animated yard displays. “Pixel” lights have opened up lots of new opportunities for creating visual patterns with hordes of little LED lights. Preferably set to music. Halloween is gaining attention.
Yup, there were Disney people.
I’ve been assuming that Orlando International Airport will be a madhouse this summer. If others have been like me, perhaps it might be a surprise soft summer everywhere?
Very cool to hear about Halloween gaining attention–hopefully that means we’ll get an announcement of something new coming to MNSSHP!
I’m skeptical that MCO will see a slowdown. Their numbers have been bonkers, and even if the parks or travel as a whole trends downward, I think Central Florida will still do just fine. Plenty of lower-cost options outside theme parks.
Tom, we used your guides from 1-2 years ago to plan the absolute best time to visit in 2023 and settled on the the second week of May and have had a vacation booked for almost 12 months now. Obviously we’re not quite there yet, but it feels very vindicating to plan so far in advance and still have it looking like a great plan (crowd-wise and hopefully weather-wise too). So basically I’m saying THANK YOU for giving us the tools to plan a great trip.
You’re welcome–hope you have a great trip!
I definitely always go during Butt Season. It’s the most reliably uncrowded! Though…surprisingly busy in 2022. This seems really green in comparison!
Though you can’t forget May the 4th. It does spike crowds a bit at HWS and also around it, though not nearly to the extent of an actual holiday.
Yeah, we have a bunch of days highlighted in late April and early May as being higher for DHS. May the 4th is one reason; Fantasmic going dark is another. Still shouldn’t be too bad in the grand scheme of things (and compared to the last month)!
Great Read! Hopefully this will be a trend we can take advantage of next year. Question: I can’t make reservations for Trattoria al Forno past June 10th. Is this an indication that Bon Voyage Breakfast is coming back? Certainly a weird time during peak season to lose a Boardwalk restaurant.
Interesting–the calendar only shows breakfast for Trattoria al Forno starting June 11, 2023. That doesn’t really make sense, and shouldn’t be indicative of the character breakfast returning. Probably just a glitch, but definitely something to watch–maybe they’re getting a new character dinner?!
I have never seen the reason for all the hoopla about Universal. The theming without doubt is wonderful even better than Disney at some points. But there is no Magic. Even with Hogwarts where it is perfect, unless you can ride roller coasters there isn’t much for the whole family. My kids preferred Kings Island and Cedar Point for coasters when they were young. WDW was where we went to be together. They like Tron, SDMT, Space Mountain and Big Thunder. They go without me now because even with Dramamine I puke on these rides. Okay, we were talking about crowds. I think people have kind of run out of money. At least the middle class where I and my friends still manage to survive. But we have very little to spend on trips these days. I have only been to WDW briefly and Disneyland once this year- very low for me.
It is soooo tempting to take advantage of the cheap $99 flights to Orlando right now! Unfortunately, the relatives I have to coordinate with don’t care about the parks that much and have staked out the second week of June as “more convenient” for them. It will be nice to be all together in Orlando, but I will definitely regret their timing when waiting in lines that are twice as long as the next 2-4 weeks.
if you can afford it. only if you can afforditdo a solo trip thenthe one with the family. I amcdoing 3 trips this year.
Went to EPCOT yesterday April 16. Very quiet.
Lots of dance teams here and cheerleading expected next month at Fisbey.
I also saw lots of local schools but at Universal.
Guests tell me they stay at Universal due to Disneys high hotel cost and then drive to Disney.
Disney always manages to Target large groups of students during school year which I find a bit unethical to participate in events for the money when it’s slow.